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$BTC may simply not reach the $50K level everyone is waiting for. each cycle has seen shallower drawdowns, and expecting another ~40% drop from here would require BTC to erase the entire recent move and print a new cycle low within roughly 35–40 days. after months of holding around the $62K area without breaking the lows, maybe the market already front-ran the perfect sweep everyone was waiting for. seasonality is useful, but it doesn’t have to dictate the script.