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寒江观盘
10月不是主战场，12月才是加息预期可能重定价的窗口。会议信号是，多数官员仍把“通胀未持续回落”当作继续收紧的条件；同时内部分歧加大。就业和通胀有降温，但美债收益率与美元偏强，仍压风险偏好。接下来盯CPI、PCE、非农，确认是否真加。BTC、ETH短线震荡偏空，数据落地前，反弹更可能是空点。轻仓逢高空，不追。
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