陈桂林谈交易

X账号名称：陈桂林

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Our Current Cycle Position Around $ETH 2720 (September 21, see Figure 1) indicated a pullback expected to 2400, which was achieved 17 days later (October 8). We bottom-fished around 2400-81200. Although the market made two V-shaped rebounds (October 8 and October 13), it dropped again to about 2310 on October 15. Therefore, many bearish voices on the market emerged (such as foreign analyst Follis, etc.). My view here is that 2400 and 2150 are two key bottom-fishing levels; 2150 may not necessarily be reached; after the pullback ends, ETH will head to 4000, possibly as soon as this year. First, observe the consolidation range from August to November 2024, as shown in Figure 2. The upper boundary is 2720, with support at 2400, 2310 (the same level as the October 15 low this week), and 2150. After 91 days, it breaks out of this range and rises to around 4000. Next, observe the consolidation range from May to July 2025, as shown in Figure 3. The upper boundary is 2720, with support at 2400, 2310 (tested once), and 2150. After 58 days, it breaks out of this range and rises to around 4800. Finally, looking at this year's consolidation range, starting from August 21, it has been consolidating for 55 days. The current top is 2720, with bottom support at 2400 and 2310. This pattern is highly similar to the May-July 2025 consolidation, especially considering Ethereum’s rise starting from around 1500 in both cases. Considering that we believe the four-year cycle bottom has already appeared, I think the possibility of a "dip back" is very slim. On the contrary, a scenario similar to the post-consolidation rise to 4000 seen in May-July 2025 is more likely. Therefore, I do not recommend bearish or short positions here, only accumulating longs. Some compare the current market to the January-March 2023 pattern and expect a drop similar to the March 10, 2023 event (the Silvergate bank collapse), which is the main bearish argument for seeing 75000. I do not believe such a drop will occur. Looking only at ETH, in March 2023 ETH rebounded from the 1400-800 range to the 1400-2150 range but did not break 2150. The March 10, 2023 pullback to 1400 was also the lowest point on April 7, 2025, and near the 2018 ETH four-year cycle top. From 2024 onward, Ethereum first dropped but never fell below 1400 again; the bottom range has shifted upward from 1400-800 to 2150-1400. Secondly, after two breakouts above 2150 (December 2023 and May 2025), Ethereum has never experienced a "dip back." Therefore, based on the similarity of the current range and Ethereum’s tone since late 2023, I tend to believe there will be no deep pullback here. After 2-3 months of range consolidation (already 2 months, which may end anytime), it will head to 4000. The confirming signal is a weekly close above 2800 or a daily close above 2880. Finally, let's discuss whether 2150 will be reached. I first think 2310 is already a position with a sufficiently high risk-reward ratio, considering the upside to 4000. 2400 is also a very good position, so there is no need to chase the absolute bottom. Secondly, the false break below 2150 in 2025 occurred after a false breakout above 2880. Since there has been no false breakout above 2880 in the current range, I do not believe a false break below 2150 will necessarily occur. I tend to hold a bullish mindset or remain somewhat optimistic about crypto projects, so I will not wait for 2150 to bottom-fish but will enter long positions at 2400 or below. If my analysis is correct, this year will yield considerable returns.

Taking advantage of the weekend's lack of volatility, I want to record a few thoughts before I forget. 1. This wave of decline is still led by the AI sector's storage segment, dragging the overall US stock market down. The reason for the pullback is that the previous rise was too much. The pullback is following an ABC pattern, currently in wave C, and basically all the stocks I follow are moving this way (using the US market as an example); QQQ shows the same pattern. PS: Micron, SanDisk, Old Man (a nickname), and Intel's wave B are considered relatively strong B waves, especially Old Man. Theoretically, wave C might not break below wave A's low point. 2. There are many voices in the market saying AI has entered a bear market, but I don't agree. I hope idle people can screenshot this post and also screenshot those bearish analysts for future verification. Taking Old Man as an example, I believe after wave C's correction, it will break new highs. 3. A point to consider: the main index (referred to as "big cake") is very strong, but the hardware sector is pulling the US stock index down. In Q3, it has dropped 7% from the top, and the Nasdaq is down 6%. Honestly, if the Nasdaq falls to -10%, I don't think the big cake can hold above 80,000; that would be disrespectful to the Nasdaq. Since 57 (probably referring to a date or level), the overall Fibonacci retracement 0.382 is at 76,060. As long as it stays above this, the big cake can be considered very strong. 4. Many altcoins in the crypto space have shown signs of support, such as Circle, Dogecoin, Bobo, ZEC, ZAMA, etc. The most noticeable are Circle and ZAMA (pulling up to create space for a rebound), while Dogecoin, Bobo, and ZEC have fallen to structural support and are defending the bottom strongly (low volatility, when the main coin stops falling, it immediately rebounds). But the premise is that the main coin cannot crash hard; I think a small dip is okay. --------------------------------------------------- 1. Due to volatility factors, it is foreseeable that after bottoming, the US stock AI sector stocks will rebound or reverse with a large gain (explosive power) outperforming the main index (the big cake). Although some strong altcoins might not be weaker than them, I think now is not the time to guess the bottom on the left side. Since the space has already dropped, it's safer to trade on the right side. 2. Chart 2 is a schematic of a major bear market. 3. I reviewed my positions: spot is full, contracts untouched. I thought for a long time but couldn't find any room for optimization. Switch positions? From crypto to US stock AI, very conflicted; Take some profits and keep some cash? Don't want to do that; Leverage up? Not yet, feels like the timing isn't right; So I can only hold steady. The only thing I did was close some leveraged positions I tried these days, small profits and losses, nothing worth mentioning (gold, oil, altcoins, AI). 4. There is no market that always rises or always falls. Next week, the US stock market will most likely have a decent rebound, but this is only an internal rebound of wave C, not the end of wave C. After the rebound, it will most likely break new lows again. Then we can observe more carefully to see if any opportunities to go long appear.