爱干饭的一米
爱干饭的一米
06理科大三在读｜Crypto，AI，美股 内容创作者｜全是主观 不知名交易员｜实盘记录ing X（原推特）：Crypto_yimi
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In the past two months, $BTC has experienced the following bearish factors:
1. The Federal Reserve turned hawkish again, and the market even started trading on "rate hikes"
2. BTC ETFs faced historic-level capital outflows
3. Strategy shifted from the largest buyer to a potential seller
4. The Iran war pushed up oil prices, causing BTC to face "stagflation trading"
5. Capital migrated from Crypto to AI assets
If these bearish factors had occurred at the beginning of the year, each one could have caused a significant drop in BTC
But in the past two months, BTC has shown resilience beyond everyone's expectations. Despite multiple adverse factors, its price has remained consolidating above 60k
I can't find any more reasons to continue being bearish on BTC 🫡
@OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球
Gold $XAU this market is really a bit torturous 😂
It was still surging this morning, once touching 4222, it looked like 4200 was about to hold, but what happened? It smashed all the way down, 4200 broke, 4190 didn’t hold either, now it’s directly down to around 4175
This is quite interesting
The geopolitical situation over the weekend was very heated, gold did react at the open, but unfortunately the bulls struggled for a while and gave back the gains
I’m now more inclined to be bearish in the short term, especially with this continuous drop, hardly giving the bulls any decent chance to fight back
Next, I’ll watch the support around 4170, if the rebound can’t even reclaim 4200, then the surge to 4222 earlier looks somewhat like a bull trap
Anyway, I’m not in a hurry to catch a falling knife for now, I’ll wait for the price to show a reaction before making a move
No matter how hot the news is, in the end, it all depends on whether the market acknowledges it
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 @OKX星球
$ETH This is really a bit frustrating
The US spot Ethereum ETF has seen net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with another $542 million running off last week, marking the worst weekly performance since January this year
This data really looks uncomfortable
But interestingly, ETH actually rebounded about 2% over the weekend, returning to around 2540
So while the ETF side is busy retreating, the futures market is starting to push up again?
My biggest feeling about ETH right now is that the trend is really exhausting:
When it rises, it always feels like it's just short of breath, but when it falls, it does so decisively. After a hard-earned rebound, you have to worry about how many people are still ready to break even above
However, outflows are outflows, but if the market really wants to continue strengthening, you can't stubbornly hold short positions just because of negative news
The market never takes responsibility for taking care of our emotions
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
$ZEC I really quite like its performance these past couple of days
Bitcoin only rose about 1.2% in 48 hours, ETH went up 2.2%, but ZEC quietly surged 5.6%, almost reaching 1300 at its peak
After the previous round of adjustments, the overall market sentiment was still quite hesitant, yet ZEC turned out to be the most active among several mainstream focus targets
I had been watching the price behavior around 1200, and now it seems there is still capital willing to buy in this range for the time being
But to be honest, after such a rise, I'm actually less eager to open a position, especially near 1300, where there have already been quite a few price reactions
I'd rather wait to see if the bulls are still willing to buy on a pullback than rush in just because it’s rising faster than others
In this market, the worst thing is to pick the right direction but die entering the trade
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
$XAU The gold trend on Monday is quite interesting.
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire over the weekend, and the market began trading on eased crude oil supply, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 1.5% at one point.
Logically, easing geopolitical risks should somewhat suppress gold's safe-haven demand.
But what happened? Gold actually climbed back above 4200, reaching around 4206 during the session.
It seems the market is now more concerned about whether the drop in oil prices can ease inflationary pressure; the most interesting part is that this ceasefire agreement is still controversial, and Ukraine has not fully acknowledged Trump's statement.
I'm not so pessimistic about gold now:
It was previously pressured heavily by the dollar and US Treasury yields, and now that it has finally touched above 4200 again, let's first see if 4200 can truly hold.
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
I really don't quite understand Trump's moves these past couple of days 😂
On one hand, he's still sanctioning Russia, and on the other, he just reached a diesel supply agreement with Putin. Russia is ready to provide over 300,000 tons of diesel, and the U.S. Treasury Department has also relaxed related sanctions.
This plot twist is way too fast.
But from the perspective of trading gold $XAU, what I'm most concerned about now is actually the oil price $CL
The U.S. has already been battered enough by energy prices. If this batch of diesel can really ease the supply tightness, there’s a chance inflationary pressure could ease a bit.
Gold could naturally catch a breather as well.
However, there's still a problem: signing the agreement doesn't mean oil prices will immediately drop, not to mention the political risks still present in the Russia-Ukraine situation.
Anyway, next week I plan to watch crude oil and gold together closely. Trump's moves here probably haven't finished impacting things yet.
#俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价
Gold $XAU and silver $XAG had a somewhat interesting rebound this Friday.
Earlier, the US dollar and US Treasury yields both surged, pushing gold down to a two-month low, and silver suffered along with it.
But as market sentiment eased a bit, the two siblings surged together again—gold rose about 1.5%, and silver was even stronger, jumping nearly 2.8%.
Now, I'm more inclined to keep an eye on silver:
Whenever the market shows some signs of life, this guy's volatility starts to spike, rising more aggressively than gold and falling just as sharply.
Gold's 4200 level remains quite an interesting spot; after surging there on Friday, it couldn't hold.
As for silver, returning above $60 at least indicates the bulls haven't completely given up.
Let's see at next week's open whether this is a real counterattack or just another trap to get us to buy in 😂
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价
There’s trouble again in the Middle East, and this time the US military took direct action.
The US Central Command confirmed that a US fighter jet used precision-guided munitions in the Gulf of Oman to hit a commercial vessel attempting to break through the maritime blockade against Iran, causing the ship to lose power.
Fortunately, according to the US military, there were no crew casualties.
What concerns me most about this news is that the shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz have been brought to the forefront again:
Gold $XAU is in a bit of an awkward position right now, supported on one side by geopolitical conflict driving safe-haven demand, but on the other side worried that rising crude oil prices will push inflation and US Treasury yields higher.
So many events happened over the weekend; I really don’t want to guess how Monday will open in advance.
Let’s first see if gold gaps up or down before deciding whether to take action.
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价
$STRK is really showing some strength this round 👀
It has risen steadily from the bottom to 0.115, especially in the last two surges, hardly giving any comfortable entry opportunities.
Looking closely at the K-line is even more interesting; after each rise, it consolidates sideways, with the pullback lows gradually lifting higher, followed by another volume breakout.
This is a typical strong bullish structure, with buyers showing strong eagerness to push.
However, at this current level, I’m actually reluctant to chase.
Just now, it hit around 0.12 and left an upper shadow, indicating selling pressure has started to appear above. With such a large short-term gain, chasing now risks a pullback.
My outlook remains bullish, focusing on price action around 0.105.
If it can hold after a pullback and even break upward again, I’ll consider looking for opportunities to go long with the trend.
As for shorting, I’m not interested for now; with such a strong trend, there’s no need to guess where the top might be.
Missing out is better than getting hit by counter-trend moves in a strong trend 😂
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
Bragging, $ETH will be 5000 dollars by the end of the year, can you make up for it if it's one dollar less? 😃
You, the thick-browed Tom Lee, are bragging here again 🤣🤣
