Dear friends, I am your old friend. Today, when I opened the market, wow, BTC is stuck at $84,000, ETH is idling around $2,680, SOL is repeatedly jumping sideways at $119, and ZEC even dropped sharply with a big bearish candle—the whole market seems to have collectively hit the "pause button," and no one dares to make the first move. News: half is seawater, half is fire. Let's start with the good news: a warm breeze has indeed arrived. On the Federal Reserve side, the PCE inflation data came in below expectations, and the probability of a rate hike plunged from 68.6% a week ago to 24.9%. Several officials have stated, "No need to adjust rates further this year." In plain language: the central bank won't raise rates in the short term, loosening the tight grip on risk assets. On the SEC side, they are going all out. New Chair Atkins has changed the previous "litigation-first" approach, proactively releasing a draft regulatory framework for crypto asset custody and simultaneously approving 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs. Citibank followed suit by raising BTC's 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000 and ETH from $2,240 to $3,028, citing "renewed concerns about currency depreciation." To translate: institutional investors believe fiat currencies will depreciate and are preparing to rush into the crypto market. But the bad news has also arrived. On September 30, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $149 million, Ethereum outflows of $59.6 million, totaling over $200 million—interrupting the previous nine consecutive trading days of cumulative $3 billion net inflows. Glassnode's analysis is spot on:

Look at the nonfarm payroll data, only 29,000 added in September, while the expectation was 85,000! As soon as this data came out, Wall Street's glasses shattered all over the place. The data for July and August was also significantly revised downward, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. Logically, an economic cooldown should be a good thing, and the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates and ease monetary policy, right? Haha, wishful thinking. On the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.34%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.28%! It's like someone having a low fever (weak nonfarm data) while their blood pressure is skyrocketing (high long-term interest rates). This is a classic sign of the "stagflation" ghost reappearing. The Fed Vice Chair came out to reassure that "liquidity is not a problem," but the reality is clear—the US Treasury yields remain high, and with such attractive risk-free returns, who would bother playing with high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies? Therefore, it's no surprise that spot ETFs for BTC and ETH have turned to net outflows, ending a streak of nine consecutive days of inflows. Profit-taking has fled, off-exchange funds are not entering, and the water in the pool is decreasing. 📉 Market analysis: "Divine battle" at the 15-minute level The market is basically a disaster zone for "dog dealers" washing out positions. · ETH (Ethereum): The steady and helpless middle-aged big brother. Price at 2683, sliding down from a high of 2777 all the way to 2646. The 15-minute moving averages are in a bearish alignment. Although it has closed a few small bullish candles around 2680, the 2750-2770 range above is full of trapped positions. The big brother now is like a middle-aged person carrying a mortgage, wanting to be tough but really lacking strength,

Less than an hour before the non-farm payroll data release (screenshot time 19:33), I have already liquidated my positions (BTC 86359, ETH 2760), currently fully in cash. Looking at the top ten popular coins at this moment, the market shows a typical "pre-non-farm divergence": funds are clustered locally, and the overall market is waiting for the trigger. Brief analysis one by one: 1. ZEC (1389.45, +0.78%): Gains are converging, funds are in a wait-and-see mode, 15-minute chart is sideways, unlikely to have big moves before non-farm. 2. CT (0.59212, +22.55%): Today's speculative coin. Pure fund-driven game, rallying against the trend, extremely volatile before non-farm, a typical "bayonet meets red" scenario, be cautious when catching the falling knife. 3. NEAR (4.876, -0.85%): Slight decline against the trend, funds are withdrawing to chase hotspots, trend is weak. 4. BTC (86,500, +2.77%): Core of the market. 86500 is a short-term resistance level. Market is forcing shorts before non-farm, but strong sell orders at 87,000 cap it, waiting for non-farm to set direction. 5. BNB (778.5, +1.59%): Platform coin follows steadily, no independent trend. 6. SOL (122.1, +4.02%): Strong representative, ample liquidity, leading mainstream gains, if tonight is positive news, it will be the vanguard; if negative, it will retest 116. 7. SUI (1.1788, +2.50%): Mainly following the rise, 1.2 is a previous dense chip resistance area. 8. PUMP (0.0058