阿简在路上
阿简在路上
野生加密研究员｜用数据拆解市场叙事 长期主义｜NFA｜📩 DM Open
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#The Trump administration plans to launch an overseas US dollar stablecoin program. From cryptocurrencies to stablecoins, it can be said that the US has been laying out the dollar 2.0 system since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and this moment reveals it clearly. Almost all the macro signals you've seen recently, including but not limited to Fed rate hikes, US-Iran conflicts, oil prices, and US debt, can be connected to this. I believe most friends haven't realized that the future is already here, but by reading this article by Ajian, you'll have a clearer understanding of the macro landscape.
I don't need to use too much data to explain the current scale of stablecoins; everyone knows how fast they have developed. Longtime followers might remember that Ajian previously analyzed Tether's promotion of stablecoin payments at gas stations in El Salvador, marking USDT's first entry into large-scale commodity retail payment scenarios; as well as Tether's ongoing purchase of US Treasury bonds, which has reached $150 billion. Simply put, these are all new channels to demonstrate to governments the support for the US dollar. In the coming period, the US government will continue to promote a weak dollar but a strong dollar, using monetary easing to keep enough countries firmly tied to the dollar system.
If we review the four parts supporting the dollar system 2.0: the dollar, energy, AI semiconductors, and crypto & stablecoins. The dollar itself has become increasingly tied to oil over the past six months, and the development speed of AI semiconductors in recent years is evident to all, so now it's time to accelerate the promotion of stablecoins.
These four parts complement each other, just like the dollar and oil, AI + crypto, Tether's attempts at oil + stablecoin, and now the vigorous promotion of AI + stablecoin. This is also why Wall Street giants like BlackRock are taking sides for AI stablecoin payments. If you understand the dollar system 2.0, you'll find that most macro news will unfold before your eyes in intricate connections.
Finally, smart friends should have thought of this: all these attributions ultimately point to one direction—everything on-chain. RWA (Real World Assets) is not just talk. As for deeper topics like how the US government uses conflicts and other means to attract more funds into the US, everyone can freely think about these within this system.
That's all, DYOR
Ajian does not recommend simply interpreting today's market-wide decline as all projects going bad together. Some assets are just being repriced due to interest rates, some assets are being cut from overvaluation, and some are just facing expensive funding costs forcing longs to liquidate. The price performance in these cases may look the same, but the handling methods are completely different:
If you hold $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, first look at macro and capital;
If you hold RWA, AI, DeFi, first look at income and valuation;
If you hold highly leveraged positions, first watch for liquidation.
Don't ask; just break down the reasons for the decline first, then decide whether to panic or not
Just now: Uniswap launched the VolatilePair dynamic fee Hook on the Ethereum mainnet, with the first supported trading pair being ETH/USDC. Such moves usually do not affect the price of $UNI, but Ajian knows that many new LPs have recently joined, so he especially reminds everyone that although dynamic fees have the potential to improve LP efficiency, the parameter design and governance permissions will also become more complex.
Most traders providing liquidity may not use dynamic fees, but since Uniswap v4 has started to more proactively link AMM fees, price deviation, and LP earnings together, if you want to go further, you should actively understand the fee formula, impermanent loss, governance permissions, and handling of extreme market conditions.
The market opened broadly in the red this morning 😵. The higher-than-expected CPI data caused a general pullback in the Crypto market. It's clear that it's being lumped into the same risk valuation framework as AI stocks. Sectors like RWA have dropped more than 6%. Ajian believes that what the market cares about now isn't $BTC or $ETH or any particular token, but rather interest rates, financing costs, and whether overvalued assets can hold up.
I've also emphasized before that in the current high-interest-rate economic environment, crypto asset valuations are walking a tightrope and are especially sensitive to market sentiment. Short-term funds love to target these kinds of assets first. If the token you hold long-term doesn't have enough income support, it's risky in this environment. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
I took a look at Rain's newly launched Rain Wallets, which support stablecoin payments, transfers, rewards, and exchanges, covering more than 50 currencies across 12 blockchains. First of all, it's commendable that this type of product has pushed stablecoins from exchange balances into everyday payment scenarios. However, I believe that multi-chain also means more address formats, bridging risks, fee options, and asset display issues. My consistent view has been that web3 products need to align more with web2 user experiences, just like Samsung's stablecoin payment last week, ideally allowing users to switch habits painlessly and seamlessly. Because what users really care about are transaction speed, fees, exchange rate spreads, account recovery, and local compliance—not cross-chain and gas, which are terms the general public doesn't really understand or care about.
So for me, when evaluating a wallet product, I don't prioritize how many chains it supports. What matters most is how many steps it takes to complete a transfer. The technical complexity should stay in the background and not be entirely dumped on the user.
Ripple has officially partnered with Meritz Securities to explore institutional custody and asset tokenization services in South Korea. If Ajian remembers correctly, this should be Ripple's first securities partner in South Korea, and it is closer to co-building financial infrastructure than just an ecosystem collaboration. Who is responsible for custody, who serves the institutions, and how tokenized assets are issued and settled could all impact real revenue and the price of $XRP. Now we just wait to see when revenue generation will begin to form a commercial closed loop.
Just saw that Bitcoin treasury company Strive is planning to raise about $500 million by issuing new preferred shares to continue increasing its $BTC holdings, offering a fixed 15% dividend yield, with a repayment priority lower than another class of preferred shares the company currently has. Ajian thinks this move is quite reasonable. If the company raises funds through common stock, existing shareholders might face equity dilution; if through debt financing, the company would bear interest and repayment pressure; if through preferred stock financing, it needs to consider dividend obligations, repayment priority, and whether the market can continue to accept such financing instruments in the future.
Of course, a high dividend yield like 15% should not be understood simply as high investor returns; it also means the issuer needs to provide a higher capital return to attract investment. This is the competition for treasury companies—not just about who holds more BTC, but also about who can obtain funds at a more sustainable cost.
Today's market focus is undoubtedly the upcoming release of the US September CPI data. Currently, the rebound in energy prices, volatility in AI-related stocks, rising oil prices, and long-term US Treasury yields could all push overall inflation higher. For $BTC, we need to pay closer attention to three specific things:
First, how much does the actual data differ from market expectations?
Second, is there a synchronous change in core inflation? If overall inflation is mainly driven by energy, the market's interpretation might differ from a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, after the data release, how do the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react? If the data is high but the market has already priced it in, prices may not continue to fall; if the data meets expectations but is accompanied by rising yields, the market may reassess the interest rate path.
Therefore, Ajian views the CPI as a checkpoint to test market expectations rather than a reason to pre-determine direction. Especially since volatility may amplify around the data release, it is crucial not to ignore position sizing and stop-losses just because of a breaking news item #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
$PYTH has rebounded from around $0.072 and climbed back above $0.09, with open interest and bullish sentiment rising accordingly. However, as long positions become crowded, the risk of a pullback inevitably increases. Currently, the price has fallen back to around $0.081. Ajian suggests that if you missed the first move, there's no need to use higher leverage to catch up. Instead, observe whether today's price movement is mainly driven by spot or futures to decide your next action.
In the past 24 hours, $BTC futures liquidations were about $46.71 million, $ETH about $33.34 million, and $ZEC about $7.15 million, with all three mainly liquidated on the short side. This explains why some coins suddenly accelerated when the price moved upward, as shorts being forced to cover naturally creates additional buying pressure, but this does not necessarily mean new long-term capital is entering. It still depends on whether the price can hold after the liquidations. Currently, it seems closer to a trend improvement.
Just now: A suspected whale wallet received 1,162 $BTC from Wintermute through 5 new addresses, valued at approximately $96.77 million. For those unfamiliar, Wintermute provides institutional liquidity and OTC trading. The coins flowing from it to new wallets likely correspond to a large OTC purchase. For the market, the significance of such transactions is that not all buy orders first appear on public exchange order books; some institutional funds may choose to quietly complete settlements.
Of course, it is not yet possible to directly confirm who the buyer is, nor whether these 1,162 BTC represent an active purchase, custody adjustment, market-making inventory, or some form of internal institutional transfer. I will observe whether these 5 new addresses hold long-term, whether they continue to be split and sent to exchanges, and whether the public market price shows sustained spot support.