$BTC $ETH $SOL Conclusion first We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30% Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back Let's all get rich together

$BTC Yesterday, it was mentioned that there is only a strong support level left at the 12-hour timeframe, with the market previously testing around 76000. Once this level is broken, the next target will be the daily core support at 72860. Over Saturday and Sunday, Bitcoin's volatility was minimal, basically consolidating around 77181, with the current price at 77126, indicating a narrow range oscillation. The 45-minute timeframe is in a bottoming phase below the zero line. Key focus: It is best to hold the support at 76828. ✅ Holding 76828: There is a chance for an upward rebound. ❌ Breaking below 76828 will first test the 12-hour support at 76000; if 76000 also fails, the market will target the daily support at 72860. The mid-box support is at 77168; the price must stay above this line to maintain a strong structure. Next, pay close attention to the market's strength tonight and after the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow, waiting for a directional choice.

$BTC BTC closed with a doji star this morning, mainly consolidating around 7.72 over the weekend BTC is within a descending broadening wedge channel, in a bullish flag consolidation phase; weekend liquidity issues are significantly impacting the market trend Looking further at the Vegas channel, the 144-169 range forms a channel supporting around 7.65, with the 7.65 support still effective, leading to a rebound from the bottom As time progresses, the candlesticks will also move; 7.78 and the descending trend form a two-point resonance. If it breaks through and stabilizes, the market will rebound, forming a bullish flag structure Conversely, if the 7.78 resonance point is touched but no effective breakthrough occurs, the market will continue to oscillate within the descending wedge channel. If 7.65 support fails, the next support might be around 7.37 or even lower Weekend liquidity is scarce, mainly consolidating around 7.72. Watch for small fluctuations in the evening session; the key focus remains on the trend tomorrow afternoon and after the US stock market opens $BTC

$BTC is currently priced around 77,300. Overall, it's a typical weekend sideways consolidation, with bulls and bears temporarily at a stalemate and no clear direction. I've already closed all the short positions I set up last night to lock in profits. In this sideways range, there are basically two possible moves: First: a short-term rebound to repair and retest the high resistance zone between 79,500 and 80,500. Second: a direct breakdown to test the key support at 75,000. Considering the market rhythm and momentum, I personally lean towards the second scenario, with a higher probability of a subsequent decline. Many might wonder, if I am bearish, why not hold onto the short positions? This is the core of risk management in trading. The overall rhythm this week was perfectly timed, profiting from both sides. The profit is already safely in hand. The market is always uncertain; securing profits is what truly matters. I have already planned a complete strategy for next week, and the plan is very clear. If the market rebounds and rallies above 79,500 next week, I will completely avoid participating in the long side of this rebound. A rebound is just an opportunity to open second short positions at high levels. The certainty of shorting at high resistance is much greater than chasing longs. Conversely, if the price breaks below this consolidation range and moves down accordingly, the first target will be the 75,000 support level. This is a strong support zone, likely to hold and trigger a rebound repair. I will not blindly chase shorts but will patiently wait for the price to pull back to 75,000 to confirm support. After the rebound repair completes, I will then enter second short positions to capture the continuation of the downtrend.

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$BTC $BTC Review of yesterday's view: Focus on the CPI inflation data released tonight. If inflation rises and rate hike expectations heat up, the coin price will further decline, first looking for support around 76200, with a deep correction target in the 70000–72000 range. After the CPI release, the probability of a rate hike surged to 90%, a typical bearish event. Bitcoin once broke below 76200, then quickly rallied to a high of 79873, dropped again overnight, hitting a low of 76813. After a rollercoaster ride, it fell back into the original consolidation range, currently priced at 77284. From a technical perspective, the 6-hour and 8-hour levels have already broken down, now only the 12-hour and daily strong supports remain. Last night’s market tested the 12-hour support at 76000; the daily core support at 72860 is critical. Once effectively broken, the bull-bear dividing line is lost, and the bull market flag structure is directly destroyed. Ideal scenario: Consolidate and bottom out over several weeks at the 12-hour level, driving the daily EMA52 moving average upward, then after a pullback near 75000, start rising again. Currently, short-term trading is very difficult; without a big-picture view, profits can easily turn into losses. No more short-term short positions; patiently wait for the daily support area and seek long-term trend opportunities.

$BTC After yesterday's CPI release, BTC experienced wicks up and down, reaching nearly $80,000 at its peak, but quickly pulled back. This movement again shows that there is significant resistance above $80,000. Unless stronger positive catalysts emerge, I believe it cannot be pushed directly higher. So, we should expect a correction first. On the chart, I mainly focus on two paths marked by the red and yellow lines: The red line represents effective support below, with a rebound upward after consolidation; the yellow line indicates insufficient support, and if key support is broken, the duration and extent of the correction could further expand. The blue line, representing a direct breakout, is not impossible but requires new positive catalysts, which currently have a lower priority. Starting from the 15th, the market will enter a critical window for directional choice: on one side is the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, and on the other side is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on the 15th–16th. Once these two variables are resolved, BTC may find its direction; for now, it remains mainly in consolidation and correction. This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR

$BTC Final stage of the 2018 bear market: The first bottom was on December 15, 2018, the second bottom on February 8, 2019, with the second bottom price plateauing at the first bottom price. Final stage of the 2022 bear market: The first bottom was on November 9, 2022, the second bottom on November 20, 2022, with the second bottom price almost the same as the first bottom price. Da Liu Ren predicts the 2026 bear market: The first bottom will be on November 10, 2026, the second bottom on January 12, 2027, with the second bottom price higher than the first bottom price. From the perspective of Bitcoin's four-year cycle resonance, the metaphysical prediction basically aligns with the 4-year cycle, with the timing falling within the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Looking at the trend, the 2026 pattern resembles 2018 more closely, with a sudden panic sell-off at the end, unlike 2022 which had continuous negative news. Additionally, Da Liu Ren predicts a rebound in December, similar to 2018 where the rebound was strong, whereas the 2022 bear bottom had basically no rebound. Therefore, the 2018 bear bottom trend can be used as a reference. Spot positions bought near November 10 can be sold at the strong weekly resistance level in December for a 30-50% position reduction; contracts can also be reduced by 50%. The situations in 2022 and 2018 are very similar, both without black swan events or major negative news, with a grinding down until a final collapse. Unlike 2022, which had various black swan events accelerating the decline and an earlier bottom formation.

$BTC BTC closed this morning with a long upper shadow and a solid bullish candle, ending a 4-day losing streak on the daily chart. Last night, the CPI data showed a year-over-year value of 3.4, matching the previous value of 3.4 and the expected 3.4, in line with expectations. The SEC meeting on the 17th is particularly important, with the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 86.5%. After the CPI data release, BTC first dipped sharply to 7.6, then quickly rebounded to 7.98. This move is very clear, with high leverage long and short positions both getting liquidated, triggering stop losses almost entirely on both sides. Back to the chart, after the sharp dip and recovery, BTC has returned to a calm trading range; it continues to touch the bottom support at 7.65 and moves in a consolidation upward structure, slowly recovering. BTC is currently within a symmetrical triangle pattern, moving in a consolidating upward trend, touching the descending trendline again, which could either lead to a rebound following the trend or a continued pullback within the narrow triangle. Looking further, BTC is also within a descending wedge bullish structure, completing a lower wick below the trendline and forming a rebound. Inside the wedge, it is again forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, while the MACD golden cross appears, all bullish signals. In summary, touching the upper or lower trendlines within the channel will trigger reactions: either breaking through the upper trendline for a rebound or pulling back; conversely, pulling back to the lower trendline could lead to a rebound or a breakdown. Patience and close observation are advised. According to data from @coinglass_com, 94,070 people were liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with a total amount reaching 681 million USD, including 295 million in long positions and 385 million in short positions, truly forming a long-short liquidation battle for $BTC

$BTC The probability of a rate hike is close to 90%, so why did $BTC instead rise? Many people see the CPI being hotter than expected and the rising probability of a rate hike, and their first reaction is that BTC should continue to fall. But the market never trades on "good news or bad news," rather on the gap between actual results and the funds' prior bets. After the data was released, BTC first dropped from around 77,000 to 76,200, then quickly pulled back to 78,000, indicating that this rise has three main logics. First, the bad news was already priced in. In the past few days, employment, PPI, and oil prices have continuously pushed up rate hike expectations, and BTC also fell from 81,500 to around 76,000. The market did not wait until the CPI release to realize a rate hike was possible; a large amount of funds had already reduced positions to hedge risks. After the data landed, although the probability of a rate hike continued to rise, there was no bigger surprise. Early shorts began to take profits, and off-exchange funds stepped in, forming a typical "first kill longs, then squeeze shorts" pattern. Second, the CPI is hotter than expected but not out of control. Overall CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, which indeed increases the necessity for a rate hike in September, but housing and food inflation continue to decline, with the main pressure still coming from energy. This means the Federal Reserve may hike rates once, but it does not necessarily mean restarting a continuous rate hike cycle. The market fears not a single 25 basis point hike, but a second and third hike after the first. Third, the bond market has given a more important signal.

$BTC Bitcoin has fallen for a week, but does this mean a rebound opportunity has arrived? On September 4th, I indicated a negative signal for Bitcoin, and since then Bitcoin has started to adjust. So far, it has been continuously declining for a week, dropping from a high of 82,300 to a low of 76,460. From the perspective of capital flow, Coinank data shows that Bitcoin spot funds have experienced net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with a large net outflow exceeding $400 million yesterday. The cumulative net outflow over the past three days is about $896 million, which has already surpassed the cumulative net inflow of about $892 million during the surge from August 19th to 21st. Regarding volume and price relationship, the average daily declining volume from September 4th to 10th is higher than the average daily declining volume from August 28th to September 2nd, indicating that recent selling pressure has indeed increased. Therefore, from a mid-term perspective, both capital flow and volume-price relationship still support my mid-term bearish view. However, from a short-term perspective, I believe there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Yesterday's declining volume was less than that on September 4th and 8th, indicating that short-term selling pressure has weakened. At 8:30 PM tonight, the US August CPI data will be released. The PPI data released yesterday was generally strong, and the market's expectation for a rate hike in September has clearly intensified (over 70%). Therefore, even if tonight's CPI remains high and further boosts rate hike expectations, the market may have already priced in some of the negative factors in advance.