Tonight's review Wednesday, October 21 First, let's talk about the market BTC fluctuated between 81,200 and 83,200 today, basically hovering around 82,700 all day, with a 24-hour change of less than 1%. ETH stayed quiet around 2,450. The Fear and Greed Index rose slightly to 63 from yesterday's 55, moving towards greed. The above is a rough level of publicly available daytime data, not strict closing prices. It's like walking to her building, raising your hand to knock, but in the end just standing at the door for ten more minutes. Today's main focus is actually not in the crypto circle but SpaceX. Last night, the first quarterly report showed Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion, the first profit with a net income of $4.4 billion. Musk casually painted a picture of ARR hitting 500 billion by the end of 2027. It's like your boyfriend saying he'll buy you a big apartment next year, and you always think he's just making empty promises, but this quarter he really paid the down payment. However, after the earnings report, the top ten US stocks still all fell. The good news was already priced in. SMCI's preliminary results are also strong, with revenue expected between $18.5 and $19.5 billion, but these are unaudited numbers. The official earnings report on November 3 will be the real deal. The AI computing power narrative is still ongoing, but the market is starting to ask whether the money has actually been made. Nothing major in the crypto circle, but there are a few small signals. On Monday, spot BTC ETF net inflows were about $527 million, but concentrated in just one IBIT, showing high capital concentration. Overall, the past two weeks still saw net outflows. Wintermute moved about 1,090 BTC to a new wallet, the second transfer within a week, possibly an OTC big buyer taking delivery, but

My boyfriend said he would buy you a big flat next year, but you always thought he was just making empty promises. Turns out this quarter he really paid the down payment. Last night SpaceX released its first financial report since going public: Q3 revenue was $14.58 billion, beating expectations, with the first profit—a net income of $4.4 billion. Elon Musk casually mentioned that by the end of 2027, ARR could reach $500 billion or even $1 trillion. He also revealed that Tesla and SpaceX boards have formed a special committee to discuss a merger. The size of the promise is always bigger than your fridge, but this time it’s real money buying cards. My observation is this: the market is really listening not to the $1 trillion figure, but to capital expenditure. Someone summarized that Q4 capex guidance doubles to $35-40 billion. This is @aleabitoreddit’s interpretation, which I take as a reference, but the direction is clear: AI computing power is still accelerating. Yesterday SMCI just released preliminary results, with revenue expected at $18.5-19.5 billion, far exceeding its previous guidance of $14.5-15.5 billion. Both sides confirm each other, but SMCI’s data is unaudited; the official report on November 3 will be the accurate number. However, after SpaceX’s report, the top ten US stocks all fell, and SpaceX itself dropped 2.22%, indicating the good news had already been priced in. AI stocks are falling, but Coca-Cola hit a new high. Honest folks who leave work on time every day and pay stable dividends sometimes get marriage certificates more easily than PhDs competing on computing power. On the crypto side, this morning BTC is about

Recently, BTC is just like someone in the ambiguous stage of a relationship: you reply one day, then read but don’t reply the next. According to public data from October 20 to 21, BTC fluctuated between $81,000 and $83,000. On Tuesday, the entire market rebounded nearly 2%, with the total market cap returning to around $2.8 trillion. But the sentiment on the options side remains cautious. ETF funds are also flowing in and out, sometimes enthusiastic, sometimes indifferent. Just when everyone is hesitating whether to confess, Strategy quietly bought 267 BTC and even raised the STRC buyback quota to $3 billion. What does this operation resemble? It’s like someone who, regardless of whether you reply or not, sends a good morning message punctually every day. Some see this as deep affection; others see it as obsession. My view is that the difference between the two is not about how much you give, but whether you leave yourself a way out. Institutions can persist with dollar-cost averaging because they have financing tools, a time dimension, and cash flow as a safety net. Ordinary people copying this blindly often miss the essence. Going all in with leverage is not long-term affection; it’s just a gamble out of frustration. So my own approach at this stage is simple: 1. When emotions are conflicted, don’t rush to take sides; let the price give the answer first. 2. For those who want to hold long-term, use small amounts in batches instead of going all in at once; position size determines mindset. 3. Focus on the capital flow, not just the candlestick charts; ETF flows and big players’ buying rhythms provide more information than daily price changes. The market won’t treat you better just because you wait longer, but it will reward those who survive longer. Survive first, then talk about feelings. The above is just personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.

Tonight's review Tuesday, October 20 First, let's talk about the market BTC touched around 83,000 intraday today but didn't hold, then returned to around 81,500 by evening. It dropped about 1% in 24 hours. ETH is around 2,400, quieter than BTC. The Fear and Greed Index is 55, down from 59 previously. The data reflects the general level in the evening session, not a strict closing price. It's like mustering the courage to approach her, only to say "What a coincidence," then each goes home. The reasons for the drop are not complicated. First, institutions are not very enthusiastic. Last week, spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $230 million; the week before that was about $680 million. Big money is like a blind date—saying "let's see" but their steps are honest. Second, perpetual contract sell orders are dominating. According to on-chain data provider Glassnode, futures are setting the pace. Buying downside protection in options has also become more expensive, indicating that while everyone verbally stays calm, they are buying insurance. Third, macro conditions haven't eased. September CPI was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 5%. Brent crude oil is near $110. The Fed meeting at the end of October has the market expecting no change but worrying about a rate hike in December. Dating in a high-interest environment means no matter how sweet, you have to watch out for the lid flying off the pot. The good news is US stocks rebounded last night; the Nasdaq rose just over 1%, and semiconductors ended an eight-day losing streak. The crypto market didn't follow the big drop today, showing some resilience. Also, the SEC's crypto rule public comment period ends today. The CFTC and CME are still wrestling over perpetual contracts. These are slow variables—positive but won't be realized tonight

The recent Bitcoin is like a relationship entering a cooling-off period. After falling for two consecutive weeks, on Monday (October 19), it finally returned to around $82,700, rising 0.8%. China's GDP exceeded expectations, Nasdaq futures warmed up, and oil prices dropped. The external environment gave some support, but if you look closely, institutions are a bit indifferent. Last week, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $229 million, with BlackRock's IBIT outflowing about $165 million. It's like your partner replying from instant to next-day messages—not that they don't love you anymore, but they're reassessing. On the other hand, Strategy dropped more than 9% last Friday due to MSCI-related news, but Saylor still bought 267 more Bitcoins. This guy is the type who keeps bringing breakfast every morning even after being rejected. You can say he's obsessed or say he's loyal. My observation is that the key now is not emotion but position. Around $82,000 is the current battleground; $85,000 is the resistance that wasn't pushed through last week; going higher, $87,500 is the September high. Before breaking above $85,000, it feels more like grinding in a range rather than the start of a new rally. This week, there are also Meta and Tesla earnings reports, PMI, initial jobless claims, and other macro data. The mood of tech stocks will likely directly affect the crypto market sentiment. So my attitude is simple: during the cooling-off period, don't rush to confess, nor rush to block. Leave room in your position, watch the data rhythm, and wait for the day ETF funds start flowing back instantly before talking about the future. The above is just personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Data as of October 19.

Tonight's review Monday, October 19 First, let's talk about the market BTC fluctuated between 80,700 and 83,000 today, settling around 82,000 in the evening ETH ranged from 2,360 to 2,440, even less lively than BTC The daily rise and fall were small, like a blind date saying "let's see" Enthusiasm is there but no commitment The bears haven't been idle either Last night someone opened a short position of 13,830 ETH at 2,366 This morning, when it rebounded to 2,409, part of it was forcibly liquidated The remaining liquidation price is at 2,419 Data comes from on-chain monitoring I haven't verified every trade but this story repeats every month Leverage is like a cheat code when right, but like an ex taking everything when wrong It takes all from you The reason for the price fluctuations is actually not within the crypto circle Last week, the Nasdaq dropped 4.5% The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for 8 consecutive days, the longest since 2008 Jensen Huang said "This too shall pass" Everyone understands the logic but still opens the market app Just like on the third day after a breakup, your friend says it will get better but you still check their social media at 2 a.m. Plus, September CPI was 3.7% The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September Most likely no change on October 28 But there are still talks of rate hikes in December The ceiling over risk assets remains Also, last week BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $230 million, ETH even more Institutions are also watching There's another detail A BTC long stop loss didn't trigger After losing, they turned to go long on US stocks Crypto and stocks are now tied together To watch crypto, you have to watch the Nasdaq first