阿简在路上
阿简在路上
野生加密研究员｜用数据拆解市场叙事 长期主义｜NFA｜📩 DM Open
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The days are getting harder and harder for BTC treasury companies. Not to mention that the Strategy with an annualized dividend yield of 12% $STRC has not issued any since the price dropped in June. Strive directly launched a $630 million preferred stock $SATS financing, with an effective yield close to 17%. It's hard to imagine how much $BTC needs to rise to cover dividends, interest, and dilution at such a high yield. As I always say, the more aggressively a company buys coins, it doesn't necessarily benefit shareholders. If the financing cost is so high that it eats up asset appreciation every year, then it is not leverage for BTC; it will completely become a shroud of the financing structure 🤡
Hmm, OpenSea has also launched a mobile app, supporting more than 25 blockchains, multiple wallets, asset trading, and social interactions, along with added features like transaction updates and profile functions. I rarely play with NFTs, but from my perspective, OpenSea's move is clearly not about competing for market share with Blur or other NFT marketplaces; rather, it's about capturing users' attention entry points, which is essentially no different from what traditional Web2 platforms and various CEXs are doing.
It must be acknowledged that mobile devices subtly change user behavior. If the web is suitable for research and management, then phones are better for browsing updates and making quick trades, which can both lower the barrier to use and amplify impulsive spending. You could say whoever controls the first screen users open daily can influence trade discovery, social sharing, and liquidity.
Finally, a reminder to all friends: the popularity of mobile platforms might also lead you to buy something you haven't researched thoroughly, and NFTs could be especially vulnerable. Remember to verify contracts, royalties, liquidity, and authorization risks.
Just saw that JP Morgan included $BTC in their long-term return forecast for the first time, expecting an annualized return of about 10% over 10 years, potentially outperforming stocks, bonds, and gold. However, they also emphasized that volatility could be as high as 55%, so BTC has not yet been included in the core portfolio. For a moment, it was hard to tell if this was praise or criticism 🤡. For clients in traditional asset management, the annualized return of BTC looks good, but 55% volatility means the holding experience could be very rough. Ajian doesn't really think this group will lean towards BTC because of this forecast. #JP Morgan includes Bitcoin in long-term return forecast for the first time
Tokenized stock deposits on Aave V4 by Coinbase have reached $10.1 million, accounting for about 53% of its total Base DeFi deposits. Ajian believes this is worth mentioning. I have always emphasized that RWA is not just about issuing assets on-chain; only when these assets can be traded, collateralized, borrowed against, and liquidated does the asset truly integrate into the financial system and genuinely help RWA become the next generation of financial infrastructure.
So although the DeFi sector as a whole is up today and $AAVE is performing well, if we look further ahead, DeFi still has a long way to go, at least it must first be able to circulate within real capital chains.
Today's market feels comfortable, with Asian stocks clearly warming up in the early session. The South Korean stock market rose 4%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.3%, and $BTC didn't lag behind either. Ajian believes this is partly because the US stock earnings season has performed well; among the S&P 500 components that have reported earnings, 86% exceeded market expectations. On the other hand, crude oil is still rising today, and the US dollar is weakening. Under the influence of energy costs and financing costs, inflation expectations continue to be affected.
Additionally, the recently released Japanese export data also indicates that semiconductor and AI-related demand is supporting some Asian export economies, indirectly driving today's stock market rebound, which cannot be directly linked to industrial prosperity. The most important aspect of AI's second phase remains what Ajian has always emphasized: whether companies can truly convert massive capital investments into profits. If only expectations keep rising, valuations may still be subject to re-pricing. #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力
$UNI futures have officially launched on CME, offering two contract sizes and supporting 24/7 trading. However, as everyone knows, the market had already priced in the positive news in advance. On September 22, the day the futures were announced, UNI surged nearly 20%. Nevertheless, this event remains symbolic. It not only adds a token contract to a traditional exchange but also enables institutions to express their price views on DeFi assets through standardized derivatives. The relatively standardized rules, margin, and clearing processes of futures may improve price discovery in some markets and transmit to the UNI spot market.
As the market is still assessing the adjustments to Russian energy sanctions, risks to Middle Eastern energy facilities, and the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path, this morning's $XAU briefly fell back to around $4,115. A friend asked me, shouldn't gold rise when geopolitical risks increase? The reasoning is simple: although gold is influenced by safe-haven demand, it is also affected by the dollar, real interest rates, and the opportunity cost of holding gold. If rising risks push up energy prices and the market simultaneously worries about inflation and sustained high interest rates, then even if safe-haven demand exists, gold may still be suppressed by interest rate factors. The key lies in which transmission path dominates.
Asian markets were clearly under pressure in this morning's early trading: the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan index fell about 0.93%, the Nikkei index dropped about 1.28%, and South Korea's KOSPI declined about 3.61%. The Korean market is highly sensitive to the semiconductor and AI industry chains, so such fluctuations also reflect investors' changing attitudes toward the tech sector. Ajian believes the hidden risk behind this is worth investigating: the market is simultaneously worried about geopolitical risks while awaiting earnings reports from Meta, Tesla, and semiconductor-related companies.
A few points drop in an index is not a big deal, but if companies cannot demonstrate that capital expenditures can be converted into revenue and cover financing costs, then the volatility will not be limited to tech stocks; it could also spread to high-risk markets like crypto assets. Although the KOSPI decline cannot be directly used to predict that $BTC will definitely fall, it does provide an observation angle: is the market repricing based on a specific issue in a particular country, or is it broadly reducing risk exposure? #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期
Between this week and the 27th before the FOMC, there are no new macro factors, so prices usually fluctuate within the existing information, making it the most likely vacuum period for false breakouts. Moreover, Ajian believes that judging from the current $BTC trend, the probability of a rate hike has already dropped from a high level, but the price has not shown a significant catch-up rally, indicating that the market has priced in no rate hike but has not yet factored in a rate cut. Therefore, even if there are bullish candles during this period, they may be overnight position closures rather than new allocations. Without new fundamental incentives, it is recommended to reduce trading activity
The overall market warmed up today, with $BTC returning above $82,500, Nasdaq futures rising, and Japanese and South Korean stock markets also rebounding. One of the backgrounds is China's announcement of a 4.5% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3, higher than 4.3% in Q2; retail sales data also exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, oil prices fell, easing market concerns about inflation.
Although it cannot be said that domestic data directly drove Bitcoin's rise, macro risk appetite could indeed simultaneously affect stocks and crypto assets. Next, Ajian suggests paying attention to whether BTC can hold the recovered position after the rebound, whether the rebound in US stock futures and Asian stock markets continues, and whether oil prices and interest rate expectations have shifted again. #中国三季度经济增速加快至4.5%#芯片股八连跌后反弹，AI交易能否修复？