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$BTC has held the 80,000 level twice, bouncing back from 80,985 and 81,000 both times.
Let's break down how this support held this time.
During the dip, all liquidations were longs, with 166 million long positions liquidated in 24 hours, including over 50 million shorts. Shorts only started getting liquidated when the price rebounded to 84,200. The support near 80,000 mostly came from forced buybacks by shorts covering after long stop-loss liquidations, not from new active buying.
Currently, funding rates are deeply negative, with the market average at -0.0109%, the lowest in nine months on some platforms. Shorts are paying.
Bitmine's $ETH holdings are close to 5% of total supply, 99% complete, with only 76,000 tokens left before stopping accumulation. The most steadfast marginal buying is nearly exhausted.
The daily chart is weakening: price has fallen below EMA5, EMA10, and EMA30; MACD histogram turned negative; RSI at 41. The 4-hour moving averages are acting as resistance, RSI at 33.95 has not bottomed yet. The weekly chart remains neutral.
It now looks like a fragile balance after leverage cleanup, with ETFs still seeing outflows.
Bitmine is about to stop; 30-day spot demand remains negative.
Before Wednesday's CPI, the price will likely continue to consolidate between 81,000 and 84,500.
$BTC Woke up from a sleep, and the market flipped completely.
BTC made a deep V, pulling back from the edge of 81,000 to 83,500, and Ethereum also simultaneously reclaimed the 2,500 mark. But let's look at the essence first: yesterday, BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw net outflows, institutions are still retreating. The question arises, institutions retreating, price V-shaped, who's pulling?
The answer is clear: short covering triggered by whale liquidations near 80,000, combined with retail bottom-fishing, and a fresh start after leverage cleanup. These three forces share a common trait—they come fast but lack staying power. Without real institutional money on the table, the table is unstable. Seven out of ten times, this kind of V is short covering; don't shout reversal just because you see a V.
My measure hasn't changed: a one-day V is just a pause, two consecutive days means retreat. A true reversal requires sustained ETF inflows; money coming back is what counts. Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the CPI boot drops, and Harker just hawkishly said "faster and more frequent rate hikes"; if the data is again on the hot side, this V tonight is very likely a false V.
Discipline remains: don't chase deep V, wait for a pullback that doesn't break support before watching. A true reversal won't miss this day; chasing a fake rebound is just handing orders to the market makers. Defense at 80,000 is still there, low leverage before CPI, hold your chips and wait for the fog to clear $BTC $ETH $ZEC A halted tower crane is more honest than any war report—when Trump announced the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire on October 11, the substation in Kyiv was still smoking. This kind of "completion ceremony" without joint acceptance signatures is called unlicensed construction in the building industry.
I've been working on super high-rise projects for thirty years, and what I fear most is not the owner changing the plan, but two sets of construction drawings being excavated simultaneously in the same foundation pit. On October 12, US and Russian energy officials and companies began talks on diesel supply; Novak personally confirmed that Russia partially dismantled the export barricades—this is a quietly poured oil pipeline corridor. But the load-bearing walls of the geopolitical conflict were not reinforced in sync. The US warned Kyiv to stop striking Russian refineries or face a cutoff of weapons and intelligence, effectively posting a "No Blasting Allowed" sign at the construction site. The technical side was already discussing pipe diameter and flow, while the political side was still debating who would sign off on acceptance.
Diesel is the secondary structural masonry of the entire energy framework; it does not bear load, but without it, the whole building cannot be delivered for use. Russia's partial lifting of export restrictions is equivalent to opening a side door in the long-closed construction barricades, causing the global oil supply chain's flow to be rearranged. Fluctuations in crude oil prices are not a matter of surface color differences but a redistribution of stress in the foundational raft slab—once expectations change, the reinforcement at every node must be recalculated. The US using military aid and intelligence as leverage to demand a halt indicates that attacks on energy facilities have escalated from tactical actions to core variables in structural safety assessments.
Looking at the linkage with $xMSFT, a US stock token, it is not an independent building but an external cantilever corridor hanging on Wall Street's main structure—rising crude oil pushes up inflation expectations, raising interest rate anchors, and the high-rise valuation of tech stocks must face increased wind loads. The three clues of diesel negotiations, refinery attacks, and military aid pressure intertwine to form an unclosed seismic joint. Market sentiment, from the fear and greed index to funding rates, is all rebalancing within this gap.
From the design perspective, the biggest problem in this round of energy upheaval is not the lack of plans but the lack of unified reporting standards. A ceasefire without joint confirmation is equivalent to opening for business without passing fire safety inspection; ongoing negotiations indicate the foundation is still undergoing geological exploration, with unknown depth. Russia's easing of exports is a construction channel reserved for itself, while US pressure draws a height limit line for the opponent; both sides are waiting for the other's load test results.
My professional judgment is simple: any ceasefire announced based on verbal confirmation must be managed as temporary scaffolding, ready to be dismantled at any time. #russiausdieseltalks"BTC Leading the Rally Does Not Mean Risk Appetite Has Returned"
The market has already given the answer: $BTC pulled back from 81,033 to 83,700, just 0.3% shy of the opening price; $ETH rebounded from 2,409 to 2,532 but didn’t even reach 2,560, with 2,580 still acting as a ceiling; $SOL surged from 101.63 to 108.56, about 3% short of 112.19. As uncertainty rises, funds still prefer to hide in BTC.
The macro environment hasn’t warmed up. Harker remains hawkish, stating inflation has spread from energy to AI infrastructure and electricity; September’s rate hike is done, and the probability of another hike in December is nearly 88%, with Wednesday’s CPI report looming. ETFs are even more straightforward: BTC saw a net outflow of $679 million in the first week, ETH has been bleeding for 10 consecutive days, and ETHA lost $477 million in a single week. BTC has buyers, but ETH is truly bleeding.
This round looks more like a BTC-led recovery, not a full return of risk appetite. Going forward, focus on three points: whether BTC can hold above 84,360—if it spikes without volume, it may still retest 82,800–83,000; ETH must reclaim 2,580, and if it loses 2,536, the correction will deepen; SOL needs to break through 113. Only if all three move together can it be considered a broadening; if only BTC runs, it’s still a safe haven. If BTC falls below 83,000, the recovery is discounted.
SOL’s sharp rise is due to its inherent volatility, not real strength. 💥 The real skill is whether it can reclaim the previously lost ground.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
These rotten old men are really bad; they must have opened short positions before today's data release, which is why they are speaking recklessly in public.🤨
Hedge funds are cautious about stocks mainly because the dual volatility in interest rates and energy markets is repricing risk assets:
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, the first hike since 2023, and hinted at possible further hikes by year-end. The backdrop is persistently high inflation, with new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability.
The result is that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to about the 5.2%-5.3% range, reaching a roughly 20-year high. High interest rates directly suppress stock valuation multiples, especially in rate-sensitive sectors. Hedge fund leverage costs also increased, further dampening risk appetite.
The Middle East situation (involving the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz shipping risks, tanker attacks, Houthi armed actions, etc.) is pushing and maintaining oil prices at high levels. Oil prices not only fluctuate themselves but also support rising rates by pushing up inflation expectations, forming a transmission chain of "oil price → inflation → interest rates → stock valuations." Europe is particularly sensitive to energy costs.
Goldman Sachs data shows that fundamental long-short equity funds have significantly reduced net long exposure, with global long-short strategies' net exposure only about 0%-9%. This is a direct response to interest rate, energy volatility, and other uncertainties. Fundamental long-short strategies averaged losses in September, while systematic/trend-following strategies performed better. Changxin Technology made an announcement over the weekend, causing the entire global storage sector to lose a market value equivalent to that of one Changxin. Today, the Korean stock market experienced another circuit breaker, which is very likely just a turning point in this AI wave. Coupled with the four major giants crazily expanding their production capacity, the storage sector is generally heading for a deep correction, waiting for the narrative to reemerge before recovering.🌪️ On the radar echo map, a warm and humid airflow from the high-pressure zone of traditional finance is fiercely converging with a cold front over the crypto continent—on October 12, a major international banking institution announced institutional-grade custody for a certain USD stablecoin and plans to collaborate with market makers and brokers to expand institutional trading and collateral management, pending testing and approval.
📡 I'm monitoring this data from the duty room: this is not retail weather; it's a systemic circulation adjustment. Stablecoins have been stuck in "localized showers" for the past three years, but now they are beginning to connect to the main vapor channels of traditional finance. Once the three chains of custody, trading, and collateral management are connected, it’s like installing a stable updraft for this cloud system—cumulonimbus clouds grow into typhoons not by momentary convection but by continuous energy supply.
🌦️ Even more noteworthy is the accounting-level wind vane. The US Financial Accounting Standards Board is soliciting opinions on whether qualifying stablecoins can be classified as cash equivalents. In our terms, this is called "recalibrating the pressure baseline." Once the baseline changes, the institutional capital’s direction will shift as a whole: previously, they could only observe this as "peripheral cloud systems," but in the future, it may be directly included in the core pressure field of the balance sheet. Custody is the ground observation station, trading is the upper-air sounding, and accounting standards are the numerical model—only with all three can it be forecasted.
📡 Next, look at the linkage of US stock tokenized assets like $xCOIN. Its current performance resembles a spiral rainband on the typhoon’s periphery: the main body hasn’t arrived yet, but wind shear is already perceptible. Every handshake between traditional financial institutions and stablecoin issuers raises the "sea surface temperature" of the entire chain, and sea surface temperature is the fuel for typhoon formation. Institutional adoption is not a thunderstorm; it’s a climate state shift—it changes the season, not just the weather of a single day.
🌪️ From my duty experience, the real danger is not the heavy rain but the unusually quiet and sultry period before it. The current market pricing of stablecoins merging with traditional finance is still in the early stage of "low-level convergence and high-level divergence": the ground is quietly storing energy, but the upper atmosphere has not yet formed a complete outflow. When testing and approval are finalized and the collateral framework is operational, that will be the moment when the jet stream strengthens and vertical wind shear weakens—the cloud wall will rapidly close then.
📡 I will continue to increase crypto observation frequency here: closely monitoring the pressure readings of custody approval, the wind direction changes of trading counterparties, and the cloud map evolution of accounting standards consultation. The integration of stablecoins into traditional finance is superficially a channel issue but essentially a major atmospheric circulation rearrangement. #standardcharteredrlusdYesterday, October 12, 2026, marked the end of the 4-year vesting cycle for early investors and the Aptos team.
Key takeaways:
• Scheduled unlocks have dropped from 11.31 million to 4.54 million APT per month.
- Allocations for the community and the Foundation will continue until 2032.
• Staking rewards have decreased from 5.19% to 2.6% annually. The total supply cap is set at 2.1 billion APT.
• The Foundation has committed to permanently locking and staking 210 million APT.
- The token buybaI stared at SanDisk's candlestick chart for a long time. The time in the lower left corner of the screen was 17:46, pre-market. The price was 1434, down 4%.
I admit, for a moment I thought about closing my long position.
Just for a moment.
Then I opened a document and listed all the negative news from today one by one: Changxin Storage's 4F² DRAM breakthrough, Samsung Hynix's $40 billion buyback exit, foreign capital net selling for five consecutive days, Samsung plummeting 6.7%, Hynix dropping over 8%, and Hammock hawkishly saying rates will still rise in the early morning... After listing them, I stared at this list for half a minute,
and suddenly realized a problem: all these are external negatives, none directly hitting SanDisk's own fundamentals.
Data center revenue growth of 437% remains unchanged, Citi's target price of 2100 remains unchanged, and the judgment that NAND supply will be tight until 2028 also remains unchanged. The market is killing sentiment, not logic.
I returned to the market. The 4-hour chart dropped from 1806 straight down to 1408, a 22% decline, with all moving averages in a bearish alignment, and RSI entering oversold territory. This kind of accelerated bottom-chasing move often means the last drop is just ahead. My own long position is still there, with a very small position size, margin only 0.38U, so the forced liquidation price is unreachable. I use the lightest position to try and err; if wrong, I lose only a little money; if right, it's emotional repair.
I don't know if it will still fall tomorrow. But I know one thing—after listing all the negatives, you realize there is actually nothing truly fatal.
I'm just recording today's thoughts. Not advising anyone to follow, nor shouting any slogans. Just feel that this position is worth a look.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% The storage sector has taken quite a harsh hit this time, and even I am asking myself if I got in too early?
SanDisk has been pulling back along with the storage sector these past couple of days. The trigger was the breakthrough in ChangXin Technology's 4F² architecture, combined with the post-holiday correction in the Korean market and the early end of the largest buyback in history by Samsung and SK Hynix. In the short term, these are indeed bearish factors, and the market is worried that changes on the supply side will alter the supply-demand balance.
But looking at the longer term, Citigroup just reaffirmed a buy rating on SanDisk in early October with a target price of $2100. The core logic is that NAND supply tightness may continue until 2028. In Micron's latest earnings report, NAND revenue grew 42% quarter-over-quarter, and average selling prices rose about 30%. This is not data typical of an industry at its peak. AI data centers continue to drive demand for SSDs, and pricing power in enterprise storage is shifting from consumer to data center segments.
From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart shows a long lower shadow around 1408, indicating that there is buying interest trying to support this level. However, a long lower shadow does not mean an immediate reversal; subsequent candlesticks need to confirm it. Short-term resistance lies between 1520 and 1550. Only if volume expands and the price breaks above this range will the rebound's sustainability be worth expecting.
I opened my long position at 1588 and am currently at a floating loss. It’s not easy to accept, but trading is a game of probabilities. The initial logic for buying was the long-term bullish cycle of storage, and that logic has not been disproven yet. As for the short term, I leave it to the market and to discipline—set your stop loss properly, and the rest is just waiting. $SNDK Yesterday, some were still shouting that ZEC would surge to 1400, but what about today?
It didn't even hold 1300; a big bearish candle smashed it straight back to 1208.
Those who chased longs at 1300 probably can't laugh now.
To be honest, I've taken quite a bit of criticism over the past three days. Since $ZEC was pulled up to 1300, the comment section hasn't stopped—some say I'm stubborn, some say I'm going against the trend, some say I'll liquidate sooner or later.
I didn't respond because I knew the market would speak for me.
It rose 200 points in three days, then dropped half of that in one day. With this kind of movement, tell me—is it strong or weak?
No need for many reasons, just two suffice.
First, look at the volume. This rebound from 1111 to 1300 saw trading volume shrink by nearly half compared to the decline. Pumping the price relies on real money, not just shouting. Rising on shrinking volume is just playing dirty.
Second, look at the technical structure. On the K-line, the 1300 level is exactly where the 30-day moving average is pressing down. A long upper shadow candle pushed back—classic false breakout.
The RSI is still hovering below 50; the rebound hasn't even touched the overbought zone, indicating the bulls have no strength.
My short position at 1218 is currently up 41%, not much, but I'm in no rush.
With this kind of movement, the rebound is just giving you a chance to short.
If it dares to surge to 1250 again, I'll add to my position.
The previous low at 1111 is just below; if it breaks, 1000 won't hold at all.
Don't ask why—just ask the market, it told me.
$BTC
$ETH
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 BTC has reclaimed $83,000. Despite the South Korean stock market falling and Nasdaq futures weakening, this rebound couldn't be stopped. The short-term trend is indeed a bit strong, but the coin price holding up doesn't mean other stories in the industry are holding up as well. A former Ethereum NFT leader, Blur, is an example. With trading volume plummeting over 99% from its peak, the platform ultimately shut down. In a bull market, traffic and subsidies can hype the market up; once the heat fades, you realize how much demand is truly real. Prices can rebound, but lost users and liquidity are not so easy to recover. Even more alarming than project decline is the potential risk to asset security. Ledger issued a warning about suspicious implanted chips found in CryptoBilis devices, involving the risk of wallet keys being transmitted over mobile networks. From market liquidity drying up to security risks in the hardware supply chain, though the problems differ, they ultimately affect users' confidence in the crypto industry. BTC's rebound is worth noting, but don't mistake a single bullish candle for a full industry recovery. The market determines how much you can earn, projects determine if you survive, and security determines how much you ultimately keep.ETH at $2510, are you still holding on stubbornly?
ETF withdrawals have continued for 10 days totaling $780 million, the most steadfast bulls stopped buying after reaching 5%, and 2400 was supported twice—but the indecisive position at 2510 might be the last escape window the main players are giving you.
Let's look at the surface first: a dip to 2409 at midnight was forcefully bought back to 2510, with a 24-hour range of 2410-2560. The daily chart shows support near 2400 twice, RSI at 45 neutral, price below the short-term moving average but above the long-term moving average. Everyone is shouting: "Double bottom success, bull market returning fast!"
But I advise you not to get excited yet.
This is not a trend reversal to bullish; it's a recovery after liquidation.
In plain terms: after a wave of bull liquidation, the market makers pulled it back to see how many retail investors are willing to take the chips.
First thing: ETFs are running, institutions are voting with their feet.
The US stock spot ETH ETF has had net outflows for about 10 consecutive trading days. On October 12 alone, $85.4 million flowed out, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $75.1 million. Since September 29, the cumulative outflow is about $780 million; last week alone saw $542 million outflow, the worst since January.
Are you still waiting for institutions to support the bottom?
Institutions are dumping their chips onto you.
Don't tell me "long-term bullish." Long-term bullish and short-term selling never contradict. BlackRock talks about tokenization while selling ETH—that's professionalism.
Second thing: the most stable buyer is about to stop.
BitMine (Tom Lee) holds about 6.029 million ETH, close to 4.9% of total supply, just shy of their 5% target. They added 12,500 ETH last week but clearly stated: stop at 5%.
In recent months, BitMine has been the most stable and mechanical spot buyer in the market. Now this "buy buy buy" machine is shutting down.
Guess what, when the most steadfast bulls stop buying, who will take over?
Retail investors?
You can't even support yourself.
Third thing: the unlocking queue hangs overhead, the deflation narrative is long broken.
The staking exit queue recently rose to this year's high, about 770,000 ETH. The potential selling pressure after unstaking is like a knife hanging over your head.
What's more painful: after the Dencun upgrade, mainnet fees dropped sharply, and burning can't keep up with issuance. ETH is now mildly inflationary, not a deflationary asset at all.
Are you still brainwashing yourself with "deflation"?
That's an old script from 2021.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
2400 supported twice, mid-term structure intact
RSI 45 neutral, not oversold yet
ETH/BTC at low levels, theoretically room for recovery
Long-term narratives (tokenization, L2, stablecoin settlement) still intact
On the other side:
ETF bleeding for 10 consecutive days, cumulative $780 million outflow
BitMine stops buying at 5%, the most stable buyer margin disappears
Staking exit queue at 770,000 ETH, selling pressure looming
Fed raised rates in September, dot plot still hints at one more hike
This week's CPI data is hot, ETH gets hit first
BTC at 83,000, ETH/BTC weak, altcoins have no independent rally
Key levels: 2400 is the lifeline, 2575 is the ticket, 2510 is the meat grinder.
Resistance above: 2550-2575 (short MA + recovery line, failure to break means a pullback) → 2600 → 2660-2740 (previous high concentration, volume breakout needed for recovery)
Support below: 2490-2500 (trendline) → 2430-2480 (key defense) → 2400-2410 (lifeline) → 2220-2280 → 2140-2240 (100/200-day MA)
Daily close below 2400 leads to abyss.
4-hour close above 2575 is needed to talk about reversal.
2510? Indecisive, perfect for a wick.
Trading strategy (range-biased, no chasing):
Perpetual longs:
Don't chase at 2510. Consider light positions on pullbacks to 2430-2460 if 1-hour chart doesn't make new lows. Stop loss below 2385. First target 2550-2575, reduce position there. Only if 4-hour closes above 2575, extend target to 2660-2740.
Perpetual shorts:
Don't short at 2510 top. Wait for 2550-2575 to fail with upper wick or volume shrinkage, then short. Stop loss above 2600. Targets first at 2460, then 2410. Don't hold shorts if daily doesn't close below 2400.
Spot:
Mid-term positions can be held but no adding at this price. To add, wait for one of two conditions:
Daily close back above 2575 and hold;
Drop to 2300-2400 with ETF outflows starting to narrow.
Before BitMine stops buying, don't expect mechanical support.
Position rule:
Single loss controlled within 1% of total capital. Lower leverage around CPI. If funding rate suddenly turns very positive, it means bulls are crowded in the rebound; prioritize reducing positions, not adding.
ETH now is like August 2025—
Everyone thinks "it dropped so much, it should rebound," but once ETFs stop and vaults stop supporting, price slowly falls from 2700 to 2400.
Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal, don't mistake recovery for a bull return.
ETFs are running, vaults are stopping, what are you still waiting for?
2400 is the lifeline, 2575 is the ticket.
2510 is in between, suitable for waiting, not heavy positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB ICE filing landed, but OKB dropped 11% in 7 days. Where is the problem?
1. OKB's role on X Layer is just Gas; tokenized US stock trading does not consume OKB.
2. The joint venture company does not hold OKB; settlement layer profits go to ICE and OKX's parent company.
3. The trapped positions are in the dense trading zone of $130-$135; whenever it rises, people sell.
In my OKB valuation, the traffic part is already sufficient, but the token value part is still lacking. Short-term follows the market trend; long-term depends on whether the ICE joint venture can find new scenarios for OKB.
However, the story has been quite lively recently. The OKX ICE filing by the 10 groups is real; the joint venture between OKX and ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, submitted a 24/7 trading notice for 63 tokenized US stocks to the SEC, running on the X Layer's Uniswap v4 permissioned pool, with counterparties USDC/USDG/USDT.
Andrew Cuomo is the co-chairman of this joint venture. If this path succeeds, OKX will upgrade from a crypto exchange to a global stock settlement infrastructure. In the long run, I think OKB is a good asset. Sisters, the guillotine for ZEC has completely fallen last night.
My biggest regret now is not decisively adding to my position and rolling it over when it was at 1300. Looking at this candlestick now, I’m filled with regret.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish and go long; first, take a look at the nine-figure USD amount Grayscale withdrew overnight.
$ZEC dropped from 1315 to 1122 in 24 hours, now barely holding around 1213.
The moving averages are in a bearish alignment pushing down, and the MACD green bars can’t recover at all.
This isn’t a pullback; it’s clearly the dog whales preparing a guillotine meal for the bulls.
Looking at Grayscale’s ZCSH ETF, there was a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, with assets under management falling from nearly $1 billion peak to $751 million.
On October 8th, another $18.66 million flowed out.
Institutions are running, but retail investors are greedily taking the chips.
Going deeper, the most fatal factor now is human nature.
There are too many users going long at this level; everyone thinks it must rebound after such a drop, right?
But the market never rises just because you think it’s dropped enough.
The more it’s like this, the more the dog whales want to kill it further, burying all the bottom-fishing chips.
This human nature game is more real than any candlestick.
My short position at 1656 is now steadily earning 1336% profit.
In terms of operation, you can slightly add shorts when it rebounds to around 1230-1250, with a target firmly holding at 1000 or even 800.
Don’t ask me when to enter anymore; my position is already set here.
$BTC $ETH
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% Recommendation on the $NEAR Grayscale fund: a drop of 13.6%, bulls have not yet surrendered, and high-beta public chains are also being bloodied.
Following the risk-off trend of the major market, the public chain sector has become a hard-hit area. $NEAR experienced a single-day pullback of 13.6%, ranking among the top decliners alongside BOME (-30%), BLUR (-29%), and STRK (-28%).
1. Reason for the decline: NEAR's previous rally was entirely driven by leveraged funds, relying on three main narratives: ETF expectations, token issuance volume, and the Intents ecosystem. When the price surged to the 5.9-6.0 range, the market was already severely overbought.
When BTC fell below 82,000, triggering a market-wide deleveraging, approximately $19.8 million long positions in NEAR were forcibly liquidated, causing a stampede.
2. Market signals: Current open interest is $349 million, with an annualized funding rate maintained at +11%, indicating that on-exchange bulls have not completely given up, and there remains potential downward selling pressure.
3. Going forward, NEAR will likely oscillate between 4.8 and 5.6 to digest floating supply; if the major market breaks down, the price may drop to 4.5; if the 4.5 support line fails, this round of upward structure will be invalidated, with a downside target of 4.0. Intraday trading range is 4.85-5.35, with an intraday stop loss reference at 4.75. This morning BTC was still struggling at 80,961, then surged directly above 84,000 in the afternoon, rising 1.55% intraday, rebounding over 3,000 points. Tomorrow (10.14) evening, the US September CPI data will be released. The price surge at this time today is intriguing. What is the market betting on? Betting that the core CPI month-over-month will be 0.2%, meeting expectations. Barclays and Morgan Stanley both forecast the core month-over-month at 0.24%, slowing from August's 0.29%. If the core really drops to 0.2%, the market will interpret it as "inflation has peaked, no rate hike in October," and risk assets will rise. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October has fallen below 20%, and the market has basically priced in "no rate hike." But I want to remind you of a few overlooked variables. First, the overall CPI may look very bad. The year-over-year expectation is 3.6%-3.7%, a significant rebound from August's 3.4%, mainly driven by oil prices. If the overall CPI surges above 3.8%, even if the core meets expectations, the market will panic—because Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly emphasized recently that "inflation has not yet reached the target," and Harker said this morning he "leans toward small, frequent rate hikes." Second, the probability of a rate hike in December is already 70%. Even if there is no rate hike in October, the market is pricing in a hike in December. This means the positive news of "inflation peaking" has already been partially priced in, and tomorrow's data release may be "good news fully priced." Third,China Changxin's storage technology progress has led to a collective decline in the storage sector, which might be today's biggest hotspot. In fact, as early as the Q2 earnings season, it was evident that China's breakthroughs and development in artificial intelligence are inevitable. Moreover, China has high production efficiency and quickly releases capacity to overseas markets, so the entire existing AI industry chain is inevitably impacted. However, this impact is most obvious in the short term on the cost-effective and mid-to-low-end markets. I believe China's breakthroughs in the AI industry have played a "catfish" effect role, posing a short-term threat to the global AI industry chain, but in the medium to long term, it can promote the AI industry to move toward a path of high efficiency and low cost. This is actually a good thing; "competition" often brings a promoting effect in the long run. #SanDiskMicron decline, Changxin technology progress under focus However, although the storage sector is impacted in the short term, this does not mean the fundamentals are destroyed. Internationally, leading high-end storage and semiconductor chip manufacturers still hold technological advantages, so at least for the next few quarters, there is no need to worry about replacement by Chinese production capacity. This year, the significant decline in Korean semiconductor and leading storage companies is exactly the macro suppression effect I mentioned in my previous article yesterday, where positive factors are diminished and negative factors are amplified. Ultimately, this is due to high long-term bond yields plus interest rate hike expectations, leading to insufficient market liquidity confidence. Next, we need to wait for Wednesday's CPI release plus earnings reports from US banks, ASML, and TSMC to boost the market and hedge against the current negative sentiment and lack of confidence. In terms of trend, fundamentals are not destroyed, and the industry narrative still exists, macroeconomic pressure continues.The weakness across memory stocks may be driven by a growing concern: China’s progress in DRAM technology could reshape the global semiconductor supply landscape. Reports surrounding ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and its development of domestic 4F² DRAM have raised expectations of potential mass production by year-end. If manufacturing scales up successfully, investors may begin pricing in stronger competition, future supply growth, and pressure on memory pricing and profit margins. Elon MIt would be such a pity if Bitcoin and Ethereum keep dropping like this.
I placed a short on Bitcoin at 84350, and it just peaked at 84134.
I placed a short on Ethereum at 2560, and it peaked at 2537.77.
There should be this kind of close miss feeling.
But if it keeps falling, it confirms that this V-shaped reversal is a short covering plus buying support rally.
During the decline, selling volume increases, while during the rise, volume actually shrinks and meets resistance, making it easy to fall back for a second drop.#Storage sector fund divergence intensifies, foreign capital selling Korean manufacturers drives sector down
The market shows some funds exiting, while other funds are accumulating chips at low levels. Foreign holdings data shows Samsung's foreign shareholding ratio has dropped to a nearly 17-year low, with continuous selling of Samsung and Hynix by funds, spreading panic sentiment outward. The storage sector is under overall pressure, and SNDK is impacted along with the sector.
From institutional research reports, Citibank maintained a buy rating last week with a target price of $2100, judging that NAND supply tightness will continue until 2028; Morgan Stanley proposed that AI is triggering a storage super cycle. The company’s data center revenue grew 437% year-over-year, and the Sentinel series new products are positioned in security and automotive storage tracks. 25 analysts unanimously rate it as a buy, with an average target price of $2173, nearly 40% upside from the current price. The short-term selling by funds has not changed the original fundamental logic of the target.
Does the short-term stampede of funds mask the true flow of long-term chips? Like the tide temporarily covering the reef, the reef itself has not shifted.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
Storage stocks have dropped sharply these past two days.
On October 12, Micron fell 3.88%, SanDisk dropped 5.97%, and Samsung and SK Hynix also came under pressure. Today at the Korean market open, Samsung and Hynix directly fell over 7%, with the entire storage sector adjusting.
Why the drop? Two reasons. One is that ChangXin Memory disclosed progress on its new generation 4F² DRAM architecture, planning to launch server memory products by year-end. The market reacted to the news of a new competitor entering, raising expectations for future capacity expansion. Although actual mass production capability is not yet verified, sentiment moved ahead of fundamentals. The other reason is that Samsung and Hynix's large-scale stock buybacks are nearing completion, foreign investors are reducing holdings, and after a big run-up, a short-term correction is normal.
What’s the impact?
First, on miner hardware costs: if storage chip prices truly fall due to competition expectations, it’s good for miners as payback periods could shorten. But ChangXin’s technology is still in the validation phase, so short-term impact is limited; don’t expect hardware prices to drop immediately.
Second, the storage stock decline drags down tech stock sentiment, indirectly affecting risk appetite in the crypto market. Bitcoin is already pressured by macro factors, and when tech stocks weaken, short-term sentiment worsens.
Here’s my view.
Don’t panic; this is a normal correction after a strong run. AI demand remains, the storage cycle isn’t over, and short-term profit-taking needs to be digested.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ETH Lately, when watching the market, I increasingly feel that the hardest thing in the crypto space is not understanding the market movements that have already happened, but judging whether it’s worth taking action before the market truly kicks off. I used to watch the candlesticks to guess the direction: Is this the bottom? If it breaks through, will it take off? If it falls, should I short? Later, I started using historical candlestick data for quantitative research and discovered a very important issue: judging whether the market movement will amplify and judging which direction the market will go are two completely different things. I conducted a round of historical data experiments specifically studying which features have distinguishing power before large volatility events occur. Among the multiple features tested, one phenomenon is especially worth noting: abnormal expansion of trading volume. Under the sample and event definitions I set, the related features at the 15-minute level achieved about 0.73 AUC in out-of-sample testing. To clarify, AUC is not a 73% win rate, nor does it mean that 73% of future market movements can be predicted correctly. It only indicates that under this set of historical data and labeling conditions, this feature has some ability to distinguish target events from normal windows. But what really made me pay attention is the following finding. Abnormal expansion of trading volume may tell us the market is entering a large volatility environment worth noting, but it cannot alone determine whether the next move will be up or down. Increased volume does not equal a buy signal, and decreased volume does not necessarily mean an immediate drop. Many people rush to chase the rise or bottom when they see volume suddenly spike. But if the price has already moved a long way, by the time you notice the volume expansion Today's market, $BTC and $STRK are like heaven and earth. Bitcoin stubbornly rebounded to over $83,000, seemingly about to reclaim lost ground, but STRK is like a hopeless case, dropping 18% in 24 hours and still falling today. Its recovery ability is really disappointing.
A big player couldn't stand STRK's sluggishness anymore and decisively liquidated over 26 million STRK long positions this morning at an average price of 0.0848. Although not sold at the peak, he still pocketed a solid net profit of $184,000.
Thought he would take a break? Not at all! This guy immediately turned around and used over $11 million at an average price of 81,819 to enter a 40x leveraged BTC long position! This position has already gained $245,000 in unrealized profit, but he also set a full-position stop loss at 79,000, clearly preparing for both outcomes.
Honestly, this rotation logic is very clear: abandon the weak, embrace the strong. But 40x leverage combined with such a tight stop loss really has a bit of a gambling element to it.Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story?#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
$SNDK has recently weakened rapidly from the 1600 level, dropping more than 9% over two days, with a low of 1444.
Many people are puzzled:
Changxin's breakthrough this time is in *DRAM technology, while SanDisk mainly focuses on **NAND**, so there is no direct competition. Why is it also being heavily hit?
The core logic is simple:
The market is speculating **not on current supply and demand, but on long-term expectations**.
The breakthrough in domestic storage technology directly breaks the belief in overseas technology barriers, causing capital to directly slash valuations across the entire storage sector, regardless of the track, collectively avoiding risk and fleeing.
Additionally, there are two implicit negative factors:
1. Nanya Technology's performance is explosive, with gross margins off the charts, but the market has priced in **2027–2028 capacity oversupply** in advance, and the high-profit cycle is about to peak.
2. The Korean manufacturers' trillion-level buyback is nearing completion, and the market's largest bottom-supporting funds are about to be cut off, causing sector sentiment to weaken completely.
Personal position management:
Short-term remains bearish, but after continuous overselling, a technical oversold rebound may occur at any time. **Absolutely do not catch a falling knife**.
My trading approach:
No bottom-fishing, no left-side speculation.
Wait for the rebound to face resistance before looking for a second short opportunity; if no position, continue to observe.
The focus going forward is only on two key points:
ASML and TSMC earnings sentiment, with **the real direction set by Samsung's earnings on October 29**.
If Samsung still expects long-term tight supply, this panic is just an emotional trap;
If supply and demand expectations weaken, this storage cycle is basically declared over. $CORE https://scan.coredao.org/address/0x307328448396c925bbc671944285547619e21838#internalTx The project team's contract just unlocked over fifty million, watch out for selling pressure. Additionally, it's worth noting that the circulating supply actually decreased after unlocking, which is suspicious. Judge for yourself.TRX is relatively resistant to decline today, with small intraday fluctuations, showing certain defensive characteristics when the overall market is weak. The underlying logic of TRON remains stablecoin transfers, on-chain payments, and continuously active network usage, and this real demand provides relatively stable support for TRX. However, short-term funds prefer high-volatility hotspots, and TRX usually does not surge the fastest in sentiment-driven markets. Next, pay attention to on-chain stablecoin liquidity, fee burning, and ecosystem activity. If the market stabilizes, TRX's steady recovery is more worth observing. $TRXGold is also a relatively good liquidity channel for capital "hedging," with room for growth in the medium to long term.
However, Bank of America predicts that gold $XAU could reach around 4800 by 2027.
In the short term, Bank of America believes gold won't hold above 4000 and may dip to around 3750.
In fact, we can see that gold's price has some support around 3950.
But rising Federal Reserve interest rates or increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields could suppress gold's performance. Central banks like China and India have somewhat reduced their gold purchases, making gold relatively weak.
Physical gold demand is relatively weak, but gold ETFs still see capital inflows. In the short term, there is indeed a need to watch for the risk of gold price declines, but in the medium to long term, gold still holds certain appeal 🤔
@OKX星球 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening?
Just checked the fund data, and the ETF outflow this time is quite severe.
From October 5 to 9, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of about $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. Ethereum is even worse, with a net outflow of $542 million during the same period, marking the largest single-week outflow since January, and it has been a net outflow for nine consecutive trading days. The two product types combined saw a weekly outflow of about $1.221 billion.
Why is the money running? Mainly due to macro uncertainty. The Fed's September minutes were hawkish, oil prices remain high, and CPI is about to be released, so institutions are choosing to withdraw first and observe. This is not a rejection of crypto assets themselves, but a phase of risk aversion and portfolio adjustment.
Interestingly, BTC price once rebounded, diverging from the ETF fund flow. ETH is even more obvious, funds are flowing out while the price is falling. Institutional demand for ETH is indeed weakening in the short term; nine consecutive days of outflow is not a small signal.
Next, we need to watch the CPI. If inflation data is moderate and rate hike expectations cool down, funds may flow back, giving BTC a chance to rebound and test 84500. If the data is hot and rate hike expectations rise again, funds will continue to withdraw, with short-term support for BTC between 81500 and 82000; breaking that, look at 80000. If ETH falls below 2400, the next level to watch is 2350.
Don't rush to bottom-fish in operations. Wait for the CPI release, then act based on fund flow and price reaction. $BTC $ETH A $481 million buyback quota, not a single share bought, directly canceled.
Metaplanet's move, frankly, is to take all the money prepared for supporting the price and use it to accumulate $BTC.
They also made two acquisitions casually. The reason is straightforward: holding significant undisclosed information, making buybacks inconvenient.
As someone who has held for a long time, I actually feel quite tired seeing this kind of announcement.
It's not bad news, but it's not a booster either.
It clearly states a priority: Bitcoin comes first, shareholder returns come later.
A new quota of 385 million is set, but setting it doesn't mean it will be used.
The previous one was lost just like that.
What should be watched most now is not how big the quota is, but whether the next holding announcement shows continued accumulation of coins.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#Strategy增持放缓，企业财库策略生变？ #代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ $BTC "ETF is bleeding, but Meme is returning to Solana"
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $65.4 million, and Ethereum ETFs experienced a nearly $577 million outflow over the past 5 days, marking the largest scale since January. However, Solana's Meme coin spot DEX trading volume share quietly surged to 91%, the highest in nearly 14 weeks.
What happened? Mainstream asset funds are withdrawing, but Meme trading volume is concentrating on Solana. It's not that Meme overall is heating up, but the answer to "where Meme plays" has changed.
Why is this worth attention? ETF outflows reflect institutional behavior, while Meme share reflects retail behavior. The opposite directions indicate retail investors haven't exited, they're just changing battlegrounds. Solana has absorbed almost all Meme liquidity, while Meme ecosystems on other chains are rapidly marginalizing.
Which observation is more supported currently? More support for "structural concentration under stock game" rather than a full retreat. Money is flowing from large-cap assets to high-volatility targets, and Solana is currently the only receiving end.
What to watch next? Whether this 91% is a short-term pulse or a trend turning point depends on whether Solana Meme DEX volume can be maintained. If the share stays above 90% for more than a week, Meme on other chains may face liquidity drain. Do you think this round of concentration is risk aversion or the last spree of speculative funds? $ETH $SOL Why are semiconductor chips and memory stocks weakening one after another $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
Yesterday shorting US stocks was really satisfying, but why shorting is not well understood by everyone. Today, Xuan will break it down and analyze. There are two main reasons:
First, domestic memory manufacturer Changxin Memory has made progress in the new generation DRAM cell structure and plans to launch related server memory products by the end of the year. The competition for market share is increasing, which will significantly impact the status and profit margins of various chips.
Second, buying in memory chips is starting to decline. Without new capital inflows and only buybacks remaining, it proves that institutions and major players are no longer buying. AI memory is beginning to decouple from the market trend. Therefore, placing short orders at this time has great cost-performance potential!!
Personal trading advice:
Short SanDisk on a rebound near 1485, target 1410
Short Hynix on a rebound between 1120-1130, target 1070Numb from the drop, is there really no hope for CORE? I'll lay out the most painful data and the strongest trump cards
Opened the square today, and all I hear is wailing.
CORE has dropped to around 0.019, down another 2.7% in 24 hours. The haters are on schedule—"zeroing out," "delisting," "running away." A brother messaged me privately: "I can't hold on anymore, is there really no hope?"
I’m not giving trading advice or sugarcoating. Today, I’ll put all the harsh realities and strongest trump cards of CORE on the table for you to see.
1. Why is it numb from the drop? Three reasons, none avoided
First, liquidity is continuously shrinking. KuCoin delisted CORE in July, CoinEx followed in September, and multiple exchanges have suspended deposits and withdrawals for risk control. The number of supporting platforms for CORE has sharply dropped from the initial 34 to only 13 still maintaining trading. The smaller the market, the easier it is for a single sell order to create a deep pit.
Second, 69 million ghost tokens hang overhead. On August 31, a validator reward loophole was verified; before the hard fork, 69 million excess CORE tokens were transferred to external wallets. The hard fork can only upgrade forward and cannot roll back confirmed transactions. These tokens cost almost nothing, and the official side has yet to provide any on-chain verifiable locking or destruction plan. Every rebound has a knife hanging over it.
Third, the flagship product SatPay has been delayed. This highly anticipated new Bitcoin bank was originally planned to launch within 2026 but has been postponed due to licensing and regulatory issues. Over 20,000 users are in the queue, and the launch date is undecided. The entire "revenue era" logic for CORE in 2026—buying back CORE with ecosystem income—heavily depends on SatPay generating real cash flow. Without the product launch, buybacks are just empty talk.
2. But next, some things the haters won’t tell you
Trump card one: CORE is still the largest Bitcoin sidechain by TVL in the BTCFi sector. According to Spark Money’s BTCFi research report, CORE has over $314 million locked on-chain, with more than 5,500 BTC staked, accounting for about 26% of all Bitcoin sidechain TVL. Why would a "zeroed out" project have so much real money locked inside?
Trump card two: The hard fork is indeed working. After the v1.0.26 hard fork activation on September 3, over 150 million excess CORE tokens were destroyed, permanently removed from total supply. Staking rewards returned to normal within 48 hours. The chain didn’t break; blocks are still being produced. This is the baseline.
Trump card three: 76% of Bitcoin’s hash power protects this chain. CORE’s underlying security directly inherits the hash power barrier of the Bitcoin mainnet. Why would a project repeatedly declared dead still have so much hash power working for it?
3. So, is there hope or not?
I won’t lie to you. CORE won’t take off tomorrow, nor will it zero out tomorrow. It’s stuck in a very uncomfortable middle ground—the underlying chain is alive, but the upper-level business loop hasn’t been completed.
Three key data points truly decide CORE’s fate; just keep an eye on these:
When SatPay truly launches and generates sustainable income. This is the only fuel for the buyback narrative.
Whether there is a disposal plan for the 69 million ghost tokens. If the official side proposes a community vote to destroy these tokens someday, that would be the first step toward trust repair.
When ecosystem fee income can cover inflation. Currently, real on-chain income is far from supporting buyback promises, which is the fundamental reason institutional funds are still watching.
Before these three questions have answers, treat all price ups and downs as emotional fluctuations, not trend reversals to chase.
Finally, a heartfelt word
From $6.47 down to $0.019, a 99.7% drop. Who can hold on until now without a steel head? If you didn’t run after a 99% drop, are you really dumb to sell now just because it dropped to 0.019?
I’m not telling you to hold to death. I want to say—if your original logic for buying CORE was "BTCFi is the future," has that logic changed today? It’s still the top Bitcoin sidechain by TVL, 76% of hash power still protects it, the chain is still running, and the code is still updating.
The logic hasn’t changed; what changed is the price. And price has never been the only standard to judge whether a project is dead or alive.
When you can’t hold on, look less at the K-line and more at the chain. The chain isn’t dead, so why panic?
Are you still here? During this drop, did you add to your position or sell?
$CORE Someone made a suggestion on GitHub to cut Dogecoin's inflation by 90%
Since Dogecoin launched in 2013, the block reward has always been 10,000 coins per block and has never changed. Someone calculated that about 5.26 billion DOGE are added annually, with an inflation rate of around 3.2%. Many people complain about Dogecoin's "infinite issuance," referring to this issue.
But recently, someone proposed on GitHub to cut the block reward directly from 10,000 to 1,000, a 90% reduction. If this really happens, the annual new coins would drop from 5.26 billion to 526 million, and the annual inflation rate would be squeezed from 3.2% down to 0.3%. What does 3.2% vs. 0.3% mean? Many countries have annual currency inflation rates higher than this.
Of course, this is still far from implementation. A hard fork requires miners and exchanges to follow, and the proposal is currently stuck on the GitHub forum with no statement from the core team yet. Also, Dogecoin is merge-mined with Litecoin, so after cutting the reward by 90%, miners' income would have to rely on coin price and transaction fees. If that’s not enough, the hash rate might drop.
But I think the signal itself is more important than the outcome. The community is starting to seriously discuss "deflation," and some people want to tighten the faucet that has been constantly dripping. The price is still just above 0.08, so I’ll hold onto $DOGE and let them discuss it slowly. "Altcoin Season Index Hits Highest in a Year, But One Data Point Contradicts It"
The Altcoin Season Index surged to 66, the highest in a year. But the market breadth doesn't cooperate: only 6 out of 26 categories rose, with breadth at 23.1%, down from 92% three weeks ago.
What's changing? The index is rising, but the market breadth is shrinking. Leading gains are from infrastructure sectors like cross-chain bridges and data availability; Meme fell 6.60%, Solana ecosystem dropped 6.44%. The money isn't rotating, it's contracting.
Why pay attention? Despite the index hitting a new high, breadth is only 23%, indicating this isn't a broad altcoin season but an isolated rally in a few infrastructure sectors. Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $577 million in the past 5 days, with funds moving out of large-cap assets into non-Ethereum ecosystems like NEAR and Internet Computer.
Currently, the data supports a "structural contraction," where the index rise and market decline are driven by two separate asset groups.
Next to watch: Celestia rose 24% in seven days, while peer Arweave fell 4%. Whether this divergence narrows will determine how far this contraction goes. Do you think the isolated infrastructure rally is a prelude or a false signal? $ETH Judging from the timing and pattern of the adjustment, I tend to believe this wave of correction is not over yet. Moreover, the probability of an interest rate hike in October is still so low. Normally, CPI/PPI data would push the rate hike probability up, and if that really happens, the drop would be even more severe.
If Bitcoin can return to around 75k, only then would I consider it a good bottom-fishing opportunity. The three major storage coins also need to drop a bit more to.
#DailyOrbit "BTC surged to 84,000, but one data point is more worth watching than the price"
BTC reached a high of $84,352 last night, but this morning it has already dropped to around $82,500, a decline of over 1% in 24 hours. However, more worth watching than the price is another figure.
What has changed? The Fear and Greed Index plummeted from 69 (Greed) yesterday to 57, dropping 12 points in one day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $451.8 million this month. The price has only fallen less than 2%, but sentiment and funds are accelerating their retreat.
Why is this worth attention? Price pullbacks are not unusual, but "sentiment collapsing before price" usually means profit-taking quietly exiting rather than panic selling. Coupled with the US-Iran situation pushing up oil prices and a stronger dollar, risk appetite is being suppressed by macro factors.
Which observation is currently more supported? It supports "short-term cooling during high-level consolidation" rather than a trend reversal. The selling pressure above 84,000 is real, but there is still buying support around 82,000, indicating a mild correction rather than a crash.
What should we focus on next? Tomorrow (the 14th) the US CPI data is the biggest variable this week. If CPI exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will cool further, and BTC may test 82,000 or even 81,000; if CPI is moderate, sentiment is expected to recover quickly. Do you think this pullback is a chance to get in or a signal to retreat? $BTC #贝莱德转向超配短债，下调美股评级 BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has made a tactical adjustment by increasing its overweight position in short-term U.S. Treasuries while downgrading U.S. equities from overweight to neutral. The key point: this is not a long-term bearish view on U.S. stocks but a phase-specific risk control measure; the long-term AI theme remains intact.
Core logic: Currently, short-term bond yields offer a decent risk-free return with improved cost-effectiveness; BlackRock also believes that the market's expectations for further Fed rate hikes may be overestimated. Compared to longer-duration bonds, short-term bonds have less interest rate volatility and are better suited for locking in coupon payments, so short-term bonds are prioritized. The downgrade of U.S. equities mainly reflects concerns that in a sustained high-interest-rate environment, the AI sector may experience amplified short-term volatility, valuation pressure, and investors may choose to realize some gains and increase fixed income allocations for balance.
Implications for crypto: This indicates that leading institutions are actively reducing risk exposure, signaling a convergence in risk appetite. If the Nasdaq and tech stocks are dragged down, high-beta assets like BTC, ETH are likely to face synchronized pressure. However, this is a capital rebalancing rather than systemic panic, so it is likely to result in volatile fluctuations rather than a continuous one-sided sharp decline.
Key follow-up points: short-end U.S. Treasury yields, CPI and other inflation data, and whether other large asset managers follow suit with portfolio adjustments. If more institutions imitate this, the rebound strength of risk assets will continue to be limited. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC Liquidation Map Day 2: Shorts pile up higher, less resistance to the upside?
Yesterday predicted an upward move, got proven wrong. Current record: 0 wins, 1 loss.
Price fell from 84142 to 82784, down 1.6%. Liquidation map update:
On the downside, long liquidation intensity accumulates to $1.1 billion; on the upside, short liquidation intensity is $2 billion. Short positions are nearly twice the longs, so if it moves up, the short squeeze potential is greater.
Key levels:
· 82000: Lower edge of dense long positions, breaking this accelerates forced liquidations.
· 79000: Densest long position zone, buffer thins.
· 84500: First cluster of shorts, one of the highest bars on the map.
· 85000: Second cluster of shorts, the most intense squeeze if broken.
Two possible scenarios:
Upward: Standing above 83332 starts the short squeeze, buy-side closing pushes price up, targets 84449 → 85013 → 86141, shorts are thin above, resistance is low.
Downward: Breaking 82000, watch the 79467 dense long zone, triggering a chain of forced liquidations, buffer is very thin.
My judgment: Short liquidation intensity is $2 billion, long only $1 billion, the path of least resistance is upward. But data does not support a direct surge to 90,000; most likely it will oscillate between 81000 and 85000, no clear trend yet.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 🚨 Both BTC and ETH are weakening! Whales are selling Bitcoin to buy Ethereum—does this really signal a bullish trend?
Last night, a fan asked me: Whales selling BTC and turning to buy ETH, does this mean Ethereum is about to take off?
I didn’t rush to answer but first looked at the 4-hour candlestick chart.
📉 First, let's look at ETH's market performance:
It fell from $2769 down to $2406, then rebounded to around $2580 but has struggled to break through further.
The rebound lacks strength, volume hasn’t significantly increased, and there is still considerable potential selling pressure above. This kind of movement cannot yet be easily identified as a reversal.
A rebound does not equal a reversal, and whales rotating positions does not equal bullishness!
🐋 Now, looking at the whales’ actions:
They sold 410 BTC and bought 14,341 ETH.
On the surface, this looks like asset rotation; but based on this single transaction, we cannot confirm whether whales are bottom-fishing ETH or adjusting overall risk exposure.
What really matters is: why is the capital moving? After the trade, has the spot demand for BTC and ETH improved? Is there sustained follow-up buying?
If it’s just a position swap without new buying pressure, this operation may not become a catalyst for ETH’s rise.
⚠️ What’s more concerning is crowded shorts and spot selling pressure!
If short positions are indeed highly concentrated, there is a short-term possibility of a short squeeze triggering a rebound.
But if the spot market continues to face selling pressure, even crowded shorts do not mean Cryptocurrency Micro Changes Under Macro Stability
S&P 500 futures hold steady, the Bank of Japan remains on hold, the Federal Reserve's independence is in play, and the macro environment is temporarily stable. However, beneath the surface at the micro level, undercurrents are stirring: Binance mining pool shutdown, tightening AI financing, whale coin mixing, and strict crackdowns in Hong Kong. The crypto market is currently in a phase of "macro calm + micro restructuring." BTC shows resilience relying on long-term holder cost (48,600), ETH faces whale portfolio adjustments, the AI sector is squeezed by traditional markets, and compliance is accelerating (Binance, Hong Kong). Short-term trends may continue to fluctuate with BTC dominance rising; in the medium term, AI and semiconductor cycles and the Bank of Japan's December decision will set the direction. Investors should maintain core BTC positions, while micro events drive short-term moves, remaining cautious of spillover impacts from macro tech stock corrections. To be honest, once $SNDK pulls above 1500, I'll be watching for short positions. The underlying stock's positive news has been realized, but the persistent selling pressure on-chain hasn't improved. When the US stock market dropped on the 13th, the on-chain market followed directly. I opened a short at 1482.8 with 75x leverage.
At that time, the 1-hour was overbought and the daily chart was under pressure, so I was just waiting for a pullback—now marked at 1448.2, with an unrealized profit of +175%. The price has fallen from the recent high in the past two days, and long leverage is being cleaned out.
Looking ahead, watch if 1420 holds; if it breaks, it will head straight to 1370; if the rebound doesn't surpass 1480, it's still a short. Planning to halve the position at 1420, keep the base position at 1370, and avoid holding high leverage positions. $W $SOL OpenAI Setbacks and AI Crypto Narrative
OpenAI is investigating the performance decline of GPT-6.1, compounded by JPMorgan cutting AI loans and semiconductor congested trading, causing short-term obstacles in the AI sector. For the crypto AI segment, this is an opportunity to "separate the wheat from the chaff": previously, AI tokens rose broadly with the traditional AI boom, but now technical bottlenecks and tightened financing will eliminate bubbles. However, progress in chips and semiconductor EDA shows breakthroughs at the hardware foundation level are still ongoing. If crypto AI focuses on differentiated scenarios such as computing power networks (like Livepeer) and data privacy (like Ocean), it still holds long-term value. In the short term, AI crypto tokens may follow tech stocks in a pullback. It is recommended to avoid "AI concept coins" without substantial products and to focus on Web3 projects integrated with real AI infrastructure, waiting for opportunities after sentiment clears.#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6%
Microsoft launches high-speed decision AI model with speeds up to 35 times faster.
In recent years, efforts in small models and edge decision agents have been highly representative. But how valuable is this so-called "35x acceleration," and how far can the small model approach go? Third-party verification must overcome substantial tests:
The so-called 35x refers to whether it is benchmarked against cutting-edge large models or itself. If it compares a "small model that outputs structured actions in a single step" to a "massive general-purpose large model that writes thousands of words of reasoning process," this speedup is essentially a compression of the task paradigm rather than a pure leap in underlying computational efficiency.
Microsoft has deep customizations in Windows Copilot Runtime, ONNX, DirectML, and NPU underlying layers. If the 35x performance heavily relies on Microsoft's proprietary kernel fusion or specific hardware acceleration stacks, and third parties experience significant performance degradation when deploying on standard vLLM, SGLang, or conventional Linux containers, its commercial generalization value will rapidly diminish.
It is clear that Microsoft's ambition is to break free from sole dependence on OpenAI's expensive inference compute: if every user call to Copilot requires pulling up a large model in the cloud, Azure's gross margin will remain under pressure. Using an extremely lightweight, ultra-fast internal model as a "frontline gatekeeper" can greatly reduce the per-inference cost in the cloud.
$MSFT #利雅得机场遇袭，沙特加快陆路输油布局
On the afternoon of October 10, Riyadh King Khalid International Airport was hit by a missile attack, resulting in at least 13 deaths and over 300 injuries, causing the airport to shut down completely for a time. The Yemeni Houthi forces claimed responsibility for the attack and carried out four military operations within the past 24 hours targeting airports and energy facilities inside Saudi Arabia, including two facilities of Saudi Aramco located in the Eastern Province. On October 11, King Khalid International Airport was attacked again, causing the death of one Pakistani citizen and injuring 11 others.
This is part of the recent sustained attacks by the Houthi forces against Saudi Arabia. From October 5 to 7, four airports in southern Saudi Arabia—Jazan, Najran, Abha, and Riyadh—were successively attacked, resulting in a total of 3 deaths and 39 injuries. The targets of the attacks expanded from airports to refineries and natural gas facilities; the Rabigh refinery and Riyadh Aramco facilities were "directly hit," causing fires.
Energy infrastructure and aviation hubs have simultaneously become targets, placing Saudi Arabia in a structural dilemma: even with sufficient crude oil production capacity, the security of export routes cannot be guaranteed. Saudi Aramco's CEO Nasser previously stated clearly that the company is fully capable of raising crude oil daily production to the extreme limit of 12 million barrels within a few days, but the real bottleneck has always been the security and predictability of export routes.
On October 12, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman announced at the Riyadh World Petroleum Congress that Saudi Arabia plans to increase its overland oil transport capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to 10 million barrels per day within the next two to three years. This scale is basically equivalent to Saudi Arabia's total crude oil output during peacetime.
The core channel is the "East-West Pipeline," spanning 1,200 kilometers across Saudi territory, connecting the core oilfields in the east with the Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. Its initial design capacity was 7 million barrels per day. As of early October, the actual daily throughput of this pipeline has increased to 5.8 million barrels, of which about 4.5 million barrels are shipped from Yanbu port, and the rest supply western refineries. In September, the pipeline was temporarily shut down due to a drone attack, but Saudi Aramco fully restored oil supply in less than a week.
A more innovative arrangement involves cross-border restructuring of the existing natural gas pipeline network. Abdulaziz stated that an existing natural gas main pipeline can be adjusted within seven to eight weeks to temporarily carry about 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per day; with additional investment in pump stations and compressors, the daily oil transport potential could be further increased to 3 million barrels. This pipeline will be temporarily used for crude oil export until around May next year, after which, due to the surge in natural gas demand for power generation and cooling during the Saudi summer, the pipeline will be shut down for cleaning and revert to its natural gas supply role. Saudi Arabia is evaluating with Aramco a "dual oil and gas use" normalization mechanism, by adding composite pump station systems to dynamically switch the same pipeline network between crude oil and natural gas transport according to security conditions and seasonal peaks and troughs.
Market pricing of supply risks has risen rapidly. Brent crude December contracts closed up 1.84% at $106.65 per barrel on October 12, marking the highest close since September 15; WTI rose 2% to $93.74 per barrel. The oil price increase is mainly driven by the deterioration of Saudi security, with the deadly attacks by the Houthi forces intensifying market concerns about conflict escalation threatening Saudi energy production and exports.
The deep logic behind Saudi Arabia's plan for a multi-million barrel-level channel is not simply to expand transport volume but to build a wartime security redundancy network with complementary resilience: when maritime transport in the Persian Gulf is blocked, quickly shift export focus to the Red Sea; when individual overland pipelines are disrupted, redistribute flow through other inland pipelines. The benefits of using the East-West Pipeline have far exceeded its construction costs, and Saudi Arabia is accelerating technical pressure upgrades on pump stations along the route to further squeeze potential capacity.
Constraints also exist. The Red Sea route itself faces attack threats from the Houthi forces, and a single outlet cannot provide absolute security. The Red Sea route, previously relied upon by Saudi Arabia, was shut down after an attack in September, showing that even overland pipelines cannot completely avoid attack risks. More critically, this expansion plan requires massive investment and several years to implement, while current security threats are immediate and ongoing. Shell CEO Savin warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be for the market to absorb these disruptions, "this situation cannot continue indefinitely," and new supply interruptions may still occur.
In the short term, the pricing focus of oil has shifted from geopolitical risk premiums to immediate pricing of actual supply disruptions. Whether Saudi Arabia can maintain stable exports before the pipeline expansion is completed will depend on air defense interception efficiency, redundancy of alternative routes, and whether the conflict escalates further to directly target core oil production facilities.On October 12, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $65.4 million, and the ETH fund had a net outflow of $85.4 million, totaling approximately $151 million for the two combined. Breaking down the Farside sub-items, outflows were concentrated in a few products; not every fund was being redeemed.
The entire BTC net outflow was recorded in BlackRock IBIT; for ETH, $75.1 million flowed out from BlackRock ETHA and $10.3 million from Grayscale ETH, with the net amount for other listed funds being zero on that day. A zero net amount results from subscriptions offsetting redemptions and does not mean no transactions occurred.
On the same day, the SOL fund had a net outflow of $700,000, coming from VanEck's VSOL. The three groups had the same direction of funds, but different fund sizes, so the amounts cannot be directly ranked as a strength list of coin prices. Next, it will be worth watching whether redemptions spread from these few products or if subscriptions from other funds take over.
Source: Original Farside BTC, ETH, SOL tables, statistics date 10/12, captured between 17:03–17:06 Beijing time on 10/13, automatic statistics may be revised. Chart units are in millions of USD, parentheses indicate outflows; the three coins below serve only as corresponding spot market navigation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Semiconductor Crowded Trades and Crypto Hardware
A Bank of America survey shows tech stock allocations hitting a new high since 2020, with semiconductors being the most crowded trade; chip and semiconductor EDA have been validated in AI scenarios like CPO, but Morgan Stanley warns of a cyclical top risk in memory stocks. Traditional semiconductor overheating coexists with breakthroughs in AI hardware, reflecting in the crypto market: mining machine chips (such as Bitmain ASICs) face intensified competition from AI computing hardware, and mining companies may face rising chip procurement costs and AI computing power diversion. Impact on crypto: BTC mining difficulty remains high, and mining machine upgrade cycles are constrained by semiconductor cycles; if AI aggressively purchases advanced process nodes, mining machine capacity may be limited, indirectly supporting coin prices. However, if the crowded semiconductor trade collapses in the short term, a tech stock pullback will weigh on crypto sentiment, requiring caution for correlated volatility. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $SNDK bottom buy? It's not at the bottom yet, don't rush, folks.
You can check the chart where I explained in the chatroom why the US stock market has weakened recently.
Personal trading strategy: prioritize placing short orders around 1450-1460; more aggressive traders can enter at the current price, but keep a good position for averaging down. The target is 1400-1350.
#阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点 Yi Jie Talks Crypto | October 13, 2026 Token 2049 Singapore has concluded. 25,000 people packed Marina Bay Sands, with Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman, Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson, and heads from BlackRock and JPMorgan all present. Although called a "crypto conference," my biggest impression is that everyone no longer cares about what new coins can be created; the real discussion is: What can crypto still contribute to the financial industry? This question is the fundamental logic that determines our long-term holding. 1. From "Speculating on Coins" to "Building Roads" — Crypto is becoming financial infrastructure Previously, when looking at crypto, everyone talked about "which coin will rise" or "which project will surge." But at this Token 2049, the real progress is all about the fundamentals: payments and settlements. Traditional finance has developed for decades, with cross-border settlements taking days, involving many intermediaries, and high costs. Blockchain’s advantage is very direct — faster, cheaper, and operating 24/7 around the clock. A set of data illustrates the point: Stripe’s standard online card fee: $3.20 on $100 Stablecoin payment fee: about 0.8%, meaning only 80 cents on $100 In the past 12 months, the adjusted global stablecoin transaction volume reached $10.2 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 63% In March this year, Mitsubishi Corporation began using JPMorgan’s Kinexys blockchain account in Singapore and London