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The earliest time I bought coins was when I came across short videos.
I saw others showing off $BTC, saying it could turn things around.
I got impulsive and threw in half a month's salary.
After buying, it dropped, so much that I even quit milk tea.
Those days, my phone was never out of my hand, even in the bathroom.
I sneaked peeks at work and got caught by my boss several times.
Later I realized, this thing is made for those who don't accept defeat.
I held $ETH, and whenever it rose a bit, I got itchy hands wanting to sell.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless, slapping my own face back and forth.
To put it simply, I had no discipline, just going by feeling.
Later I tried $SOL, it was so fast it made my scalp tingle.
It surged up in minutes, then crashed down in minutes.
People with weak hearts really shouldn't touch it.
Now I hardly check groups.
I treat the trade calls like comedy.
Those showing profits mostly want you to take over their positions.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it's all traps.
I've seen people get wildly arrogant after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
This circle changes three times a day.
So I only use spare money; losing it doesn't affect my meals.
If I earn, I don't get cocky; if I lose, I don't make a fuss; as long as I can sleep well.
Don't mistake luck for skill.
Don't treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market is made for those who don't accept defeat, and I've long accepted it. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 The second largest XRP theft incident of the year has spilled over:
More than 7,000 D'CENT wallets were emptied of over 12.4 million XRP, and the stolen funds have spread from the XRP Ledger to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, and Stellar.
The cause points to a compromised mnemonic recovery phrase:
D'CENT is a multi-chain wallet; a single seed controls assets across multiple public chains. Once leaked, hackers can sweep all balances across all chains at once. The vendor IoTrust has confirmed at least 110 abnormal transfers.
The reminder to self-custody users is straightforward: the convenience of multi-chain wallets means the cost of a single point of failure is amplified across all chains. The methods of generating, storing, and backing up mnemonic phrases deserve a thorough review.What happens when traditional stocks start moving onto blockchain infrastructure?
That's the interesting part of the tokenization trend.
It's not simply about putting a stock on-chain.
It's about what could eventually happen with access, settlement, liquidity and the ability to use traditional assets inside digital financial systems.
The connection between TradFi and DeFi keeps getting stronger.
$AAVE #DeFi #RWA #TokenizationDavid's Trading Notes
$ETH September 29, 2026
I. Intraday Plan
Today intraday: mainly oscillation, with reversals as a supplement
1. The purple area in Chart 1 is an oscillation box; only when small-scale upper or lower edges show reversal signals should you go long or short
2. Two edges: 2718 and 2638; only trade reversals when small-scale signals appear
3. If you want to chase longs: watch for a breakout above 2718 and a pullback that holds before going long, target 2750
4. 2750 is a resistance wall, heavily stacked; this supply must be absorbed first for bulls to possibly explode
Wait for signals! Wait for signals! Wait for signals!
If you trade in the oscillation range without waiting for signals, are you an M?
II. Viewpoint
Sideways movement during the adjustment phase represents strength; patiently wait for opportunities at key levels. Wednesday and Friday's data will act as catalysts for the market
The biggest risk in oscillation is chasing halfway up the slope. Either wait for the edges or wait for 2718 to hold on the pullback. If not at the edge and no reversal given, patiently wait for key levels #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 🟠 $BTC/USDT｜1H Trend Update 📊
BTC has strongly risen above the three moving averages and is currently testing the $83,945–$84,008 resistance zone.
📈 Short-term momentum favors buyers, but chasing this big bullish candle directly carries an unfavorable risk-reward ratio.
📍 Entry: $83,650–$83,800 (waiting for pullback confirmation)
🛑 SL: $83,350
🎯 TP1: $84,008
🎯 TP2: $84,374
🎯 TP3: $84,700
⚠️ If the 1H candle closes below $83,467, the breakout structure will clearly weaken.
🧠 Key point: Do not chase the price up; wait for a pullback + price confirmation.
For learning and communication purposes only, not investment advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USTreasuryYieldHigh$AAVE ‘s uptrend is being fueled by real news: V4 deposits crossed $1B, and the new Equities Hub lets users borrow $USDC against tokenized stocks. I bought around 135 on the pullback. Price just broke the 155–160 ceiling and is running at 165.
I'm letting the winner run, with a trailing stop that moves up as price climbs to guard against a sudden dump. The trend is doing the work, my job is to protect the gains.NVIDIA's story is no longer just about selling powerful chips.
The bigger AI boom is creating enormous cash flows, massive infrastructure demand and increasingly important capital-allocation decisions.
That's why the discussion around a large buyback is interesting.
AI demand gets the headlines.
What companies do with the money generated from that demand is another story.
$NVDA #NVIDIA #AI #SemiconductorsThe AI race is getting bigger than just chatbots.
Companies like Anthropic are attracting enormous attention because investors are increasingly interested in what the next generation of AI businesses could look like as public companies.
But the bigger question is valuation.
How do markets price rapid AI growth when the costs of building that growth are also enormous?
That's going to be an interesting story to watch.
#AI #Anthropic #ArtificialIntelligence #TechThis quarter, with ETF buyers returning, ETH has clearly outperformed BTC: Ethereum rose about 60%, while Bitcoin rose about 44%. It is indeed worth tracking whether institutional funds are tilting towards Ethereum. ETH ETFs have seen continuous net inflows recently, combined with staking lock-ups, thinning liquidity, and institutions viewing ETH as a tokenized settlement layer and AI infrastructure base, all of which have attracted stronger capital attention to ETH.
However, this should not be simply interpreted as "institutions have fully shifted to Ethereum." Current ETH ETF inflows are still highly concentrated in a few products, and some funds are related to arbitrage, staking yields, and position rebalancing, which may not be purely long-term directional buying. If ETF inflows continue, ETH/BTC remains strong, and ETH holds key support, then the probability of Ethereum continuing to lead BTC will be higher; if inflows weaken or macro pressures increase, ETH may also follow BTC in oscillation again.
From a weekly perspective, altcoins currently look more like a pullback after an earlier rise. As long as BTC and ETH do not break key levels, altcoins with prior capital, narratives, and fundamentals may still rally again; but a true full-market altcoin season has not yet been confirmed, as the altcoin season index and BTC market dominance have not given clear rotation signals. What is more worth watching next is whether ETH/BTC can continue to strengthen and whether the total market cap of altcoins can break out with renewed volume.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Citi and Coinbase have concretized their previously announced digital asset payment collaboration into two specific product lines.
First, Citi's institutional clients can receive stablecoin payments through Spring by Citi, with Coinbase providing the underlying payment infrastructure;
Second, Coinbase's Virtual Accounts leverage Citi's Virtual Account Wallet to automatically convert clients' received fiat currency into stablecoins.
The direction is very clear: enabling enterprises to flow between fiat and stablecoins without having to build two separate systems for banking and crypto simultaneously. However, the announcement did not disclose any clients or transaction amounts that have been processed, so the actual scale of implementation remains unconfirmed.
Major banks are moving the stablecoin track from "concept" to "product list."Bitcoin is holding up while several altcoins are taking a hit.
That's an interesting market signal.
It reminds us that crypto doesn't always move as one group. Capital can rotate between Bitcoin, large caps and smaller altcoins depending on market conditions.
So instead of asking only "Is crypto going up?"
Maybe the better question is:
Where is the money moving?
$BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #BitcoinETFCore PCE inflation data will be released on September 30, and the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision will be announced on October 1. If the PCE is higher than expected or the Fed signals a hawkish stance, bearish pressure in the market may increase; if the data is moderate and rate hike expectations cool down, BTC prices may have a chance to rebound and test around $84,800, and the total crypto market capitalization could also reclaim $2.88 trillion.
Within 24 hours, BTC price fell back to $82,501.07, and the total crypto market cap dropped 1.49% to $2.86 trillion. Recent market pressure is also related to a security incident at Bitget exchange involving about $387.5 million; among this, approximately $83 million in XRP funds broke through freezing restrictions, further amplifying concerns about trust in centralized exchanges.
Key support levels remain the focus. $BTC needs to hold above $82,000, or it may further drop to $77,000. Regarding total market cap, the 23.6% Fibonacci level near $2.85 trillion needs to hold; if broken, the market may continue to seek support near $2.80 trillion.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% One chart, three numbers: 0.115 → 0.139 → $6.84M.
$ALGO ripped more than 20% from yesterday’s low to today’s high, while OKX daily volume expanded to roughly 4× its recent baseline. It now trades near $0.1345, still about 14% higher over 24h.
No major fresh protocol headline explains the acceleration. This is a flow story first — and volume arrived before the explanation did.NMR current price is 12.705, just stuck at the upper edge of the 12.67 liquidation accumulation zone. There are continuous buy orders supporting between 12.55 and 12.67 below, and quite a few limit sell orders pressuring between 13.1 and 13.3 above. The short-term structure is bullish but a breakout requires volume confirmation.
Just finished delivering an order to the sixth floor of an old residential area, my legs are still shaking. Coming back to check the market, I can only trade the segment with the highest certainty.
If the price pulls back to the 12.55 to 12.67 range without breaking it, you can lightly go long, with a stop loss set below 12.35 to prevent a failed breakout triggering a long liquidation stampede. The first take-profit target is 13.1; if the sell orders above 13 are quickly eaten up, the second target is 13.4. It is not recommended to chase at the current price; wait for a pullback before going up.
$NMR
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
@OKX星球 Position check-in✨
ICP's bullish rally has realized substantial floating profits, SUI holds a small profit position waiting, UNI is still deeply trapped and struggling.
The hardest part of trading contracts is not catching a big surge, but staying calm in the face of profits and losses and managing position risk well.#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Where does $BTC get the confidence to hold around 84,000?! 🤔️ Who's buying?
It used to be driven by retail sentiment, but now veteran asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity are pushing in daily with spot ETFs, and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is quietly increasing its position.
Could it be that inflation and employment data can't stop Bitcoin from charging toward $1 million for institutions?! 😊
This Wednesday at 8:30 PM, August PCE will be released first. The market roughly expects core year-over-year at 3.4% and month-over-month at 0.3%.
The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot hints at possibly one more hike this year. PCE is their most trusted inflation data; if the numbers are soft, the urgency for further hikes can ease.
Otherwise, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again. At the same time on Friday, September nonfarm payrolls will be released. The expectation is an increase of 80,000 to 90,000, less than August's 160,000, with unemployment possibly at 4.2%. If employment remains strong, it means the economy isn't falling apart, making rate cuts even harder.
Currently consolidating around 84,000, no one can guess the direction before the data drops. The safest approach is usually to build a small position and wait for the data to come out and the market trend to become clear before making a move to seek steady wins!
This PCE is still very important for the market; a mature trader won't go all in recklessly!
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% The new regulation by the Central Bank of Brazil (Resolution BCB 588) will take effect on October 1:
Regulated banks and exchanges must report to the Financial Activities Control Council (Coaf) by the next business day whenever they transfer to or receive from self-custody wallets amounts of 10,000 USD or more.
The key point is "automatic triggering":
Institutions do not need to first identify the transaction as suspicious; as long as the amount and type meet the criteria, even legitimate transfers will enter the reporting system.
This is an additional channel beyond the existing suspicious transaction reports, covering "large flows between regulated platforms and self-custody."
The Brazilian crypto market is about 252 billion USD in size; this step effectively pushes the compliance boundary directly to the doorstep of private wallets' inflows and outflows.The fate of the bulls' leader: Big Brother Maji bottoms out again
Big Brother Maji made a move again today, adding his $ETH long position to 36,000 coins, worth $96.23 million, just one step away from 100 million. Entry price 2670, liquidation price 2581, floating loss of 170,000. This loss is probably just a storm in a teacup for him.
But things are not so easy on the $HYPE side—226,000 long positions, floating loss of $1.18 million, liquidation price 73.05, not far from the current price.
Everyone in the circle knows Big Brother Maji is the leader of the bulls, almost never seen opening shorts. The direction sense is right, but the position size is too heavy. Every time he gets stopped out, the market rallies; every time he chases in, he gets precisely killed. It's like someone who always presses the wrong floor button in an elevator.
Some say he's too stubborn, some say he has too much money and is willful. But from another perspective, in this market full of scythes, someone who keeps insisting on going long and always believes in a bull market is like a kind of faith.
But the price of faith is often being repeatedly killed.
Big Brother Maji has it tough. But next time, he will most likely bottom out again.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% ZEC: The "Fast & Furious" of Privacy Coins
Today's movement of ZEC can be summed up in four words: wild ups and downs. The 24-hour high was 1,599.50, the low was 1,355, with a daily drop of 7.29%. On the 15-minute chart, it crashed from the high of 1,599 down to 1,355, then started to rebound, currently back around 1,418. The MACD is below the zero line, and the Bollinger Bands upper and lower bands are at 1,426.75 and 1,357.34 respectively.
The news is exciting. ZEC has risen about 100% in the past month, and the co-founder has publicly reiterated the long-term target of "$5,000." Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF has been listed on NYSE Arca, and DCG exchanged about $100 million worth of ZCSH ETF shares for ZEC. The privacy coin sector's market cap has increased by $24.54 billion in the past five months, with ZEC alone contributing $20.27 billion.
ZEC has surged from 319 to 1,507, an increase of over 370%. Currently, on the 15-minute level, it is clearly consolidating at a high level to digest profits. Resistance is at 1,435, support at 1,402. Chasing the price here? I advise you to stay calm. This kind of movement is like playing "hot potato" — you never know when the music will stop. But if you want to trade the swings, there is indeed support around 1,355-1,360; short-term rebound plays are possible, just set a strict stop loss. $ZEC ETH: The coolest guy, but don't get carried away
Ethereum rose 1.33% today, closing at 2,712. On the 15-minute chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 all formed golden crosses pointing upward, Bollinger Bands widened, with the upper band at 2,720.42 just overhead. On-chain data is also strong: exchange ETH supply dropped to only 3.49%, priority fees surged 26.74% in one day to $464,000, indicating that despite price fluctuations, demand for block space remains robust.
More importantly, Hong Kong's first batch of stablecoin licenses have been issued, the US "Stablecoin Act" is entering the calibration phase, and giants like BlackRock are rushing to get approval for Ethereum staking ETFs. ETH's open interest contracts have also surged to $30 billion, a new high since October 2025, with top exchanges showing a long-to-short ratio of 1.54, favoring the bulls.
ETH support is at 2,677, resistance at 2,713.80. Short-term momentum is good, but 2,720 is the Bollinger upper band, chasing aggressively carries risk. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to the 2,690-2,700 range before considering entry. Ethereum is currently the biggest beneficiary of "sector rotation," with funds flowing back from meme coins to the ETH ecosystem, a trend unlikely to change in the short term. But don't get carried away; overbought corrections on the 15-minute level could come at any time. $ETH The earliest time I bought coins was after seeing a colleague show off screenshots.
He said just hold $BTC with your eyes closed.
I believed him and threw in a few thousand yuan.
The next day after buying, it turned red.
At that time, I even skipped breakfast.
I secretly checked the market at work and got stared down by my supervisor several times.
Later I understood, this thing isn’t about who’s smarter.
It’s about who can endure more and who knows their own limits.
When holding $ETH, I’d get itchy hands when it rose a bit.
When it dropped a bit, I’d curse myself for being reckless.
Selling made me afraid of missing out, not selling made me afraid of losses, constantly slapping my own face.
Later when I got into $SOL, it was so fast it made my scalp tingle.
It would surge up in minutes and crash down in minutes.
If you have a weak heart, really don’t touch it.
Now I rarely check groups.
I take trading calls as jokes.
Those showing off profits mostly want you to take over their positions.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it’s all traps.
I’ve seen people get wildly arrogant after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
In this circle, people turn on each other faster than flipping a book.
So I only use spare money; losing it doesn’t affect my meals.
If I earn, I don’t get cocky; if I lose, I don’t make a fuss; as long as I can sleep well.
Don’t mistake luck for skill.
Don’t treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the arrogant; I’ve long accepted that. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 BTC is currently still oscillating within a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, with the price repeatedly touching the upper boundary of the channel before showing a clear pullback. Around $83,800, the channel's upper boundary coincides with the MA100 dynamic resistance, forming a key area that bulls need to break through. 📊 From the volume-price relationship perspective, trading volume gradually decreases during the rebound, indicating a weakening willingness of buyers to chase prices. Against the backdrop of persistent macro yield pressure and cautious capital towards risk assets, BTC still has the possibility of retesting the lower boundary of the channel in the short term. 🔻 Short-term observation strategy: • Focus area: $83,750–$83,890 • Key defense: Above $84,346 • Downside target reference: Around $80,006 • If it stabilizes above $84K again with increased volume, the previous bearish structure needs to be reassessed Meanwhile, the market continues to monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields and BTC ETF capital flows. If ETFs continue to attract inflows, it may provide additional support for BTC; conversely, if yields keep rising and suppress risk appetite, short-term volatility may further increase. ⚠️ The above is only a technical structure observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please combine with your own risk management and stop-loss plans before trading. $BTC #USTreasuryYieldHigh #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh #BTCMarketWatch #CryptoUpdateAVAX has recently performed outstandingly, with the market mainly trading Avalanche's high-performance public chain, subnet architecture, and RWA-related narratives. Compared to assets that rely solely on Meme sentiment, AVAX is more influenced by ecosystem partnerships, institutional applications, and on-chain business growth. There is a clear capital inflow in the market, indicating that the market is beginning to reassess some established L1s with infrastructure value. However, competition in the L1 sector remains fierce, and whether the momentum can be maintained depends on whether subnet applications, gaming ecosystems, DeFi liquidity, and RWA projects show actual growth. If ecosystem data improves simultaneously, market attention on AVAX may be more sustained; if it is just short-term rotation, the trend may still fluctuate. $AVAX#IonQ released a "fully compiled, end-to-end" resource estimation paper:
It suggests that using about 20,000 trapped ion qubits, combined with efficient compilation, is theoretically sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures — the encryption protecting the vast majority of Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets.
The key is "fully compiled" and "end-to-end":
Previous estimates were often criticized for only considering algorithms and ignoring error correction and engineering overhead; this time the entire tech stack is accounted for.
For holders: no short-term threat, but the claim that "quantum threats are just science fiction" is becoming increasingly untenable.
The window for migrating to quantum-resistant addresses starts now. BCH has recently maintained a recovery pace and is a well-established payment asset that tends to be mined by capital after market risk appetite rises. It shares certain perceptions with BTC such as "payment, PoW, and a long-standing community," so when Bitcoin strengthens and the market starts looking for catch-up opportunities, BCH often gains phase-specific attention. The current trend is relatively active, indicating capital participation in rotation, but BCH's sustainability still depends more on overall market sentiment and increased trading volume rather than new ecosystem narratives. Going forward, attention can be paid to the miner ecosystem, on-chain usage, and whether BTC's strength or weakness remains in sync. If mainstream capital continues to spread, BCH may maintain high attention; if the market weakens, volatility will be more direct. $BCHSUI has been relatively weak recently, reflecting that the market's capital preference for new public chains is starting to focus more on real ecological data rather than just technical narratives. Sui itself has strong tags in gaming, consumer-level applications, and high-performance chains, and community enthusiasm has always been high. However, when the market environment favors mainstream assets, L1 projects lacking clear short- to mid-term catalysts tend to face pressure. The current adjustment does not mean the narrative has failed; the key is whether on-chain users, DEX trading, ecosystem project financing, and new application launches can bring incremental growth. If continuous highlights emerge on the ecological side, SUI is likely to regain attention from highly elastic capital; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate with the market. $SUI$BTC started to consolidate after a surge, is this wave stable?
Brothers, after Bitcoin pulled up to 84200, it didn't drop directly but hovered above 84000.
This detail is more interesting than a simple rally.
Here are a few key signals:
First, the 15-minute moving averages have formed a bullish alignment, with MA5 and MA10 supporting the price from below, indicating a short-term strong structure.
Second, that spike to 84200 was actually testing the resistance above; the pullback was small, indicating that selling pressure is temporarily controllable.
Third, pay attention to the volume — the 24-hour trading volume has dropped to just over 5900 coins, shrinking again compared to before. Low-volume consolidation means there aren't many funds chasing the highs; more of the funds are holding within the market.
Next, focus on two things:
One is whether the short-term support at 83900-84000 can hold.
Two is if there is volume support for another push to 84200-84400.
If volume continues to shrink and it grinds sideways, it's likely to remain range-bound.
If there's a breakout with volume, then it's worth paying close attention.
At this position, chasing highs has average cost-effectiveness; it's better to wait for a pullback confirmation or a breakout with volume before making a move.Bad move, $BTC is going up again, all profits gone... Brothers, $BTC is going up again, This time it feels a bit off! Looking at the 1-hour chart, this is a classic W bottom, could it be that there won't be a pullback? Straight takeoff? Feels impossible no matter how you look at it, it’s been so weak these past two days, but it never broke below the crucial support at 82600. This time going up, I feel it’s different from before, could it be going up? A bit panicked, all profits retraced Didn’t exit at 825, feeling bad brothers Ethereum $ETH is even scarier, it keeps surging above 2720, do you guys think it can still go down? Let’s discuss. Check my pinned post $AAVE Aave App adds direct deposit functionality for Ethereum mainnet
1. Lowers user barriers and attracts incremental funds
Previously, the Aave mobile app only supported layer 2 networks like Arbitrum, requiring users to manually bridge assets from the ETH mainnet, which was cumbersome and costly due to gas fees. This new direct mainnet deposit feature, combined with the early access mechanism via Ghost Pass invitation codes, greatly simplifies the process, facilitating the inflow of Ethereum mainnet funds into the Aave protocol, boosting TVL (Total Value Locked), and benefiting the fundamentals of the AAVE token.
2. Product strategy implementation, expanding to ordinary retail users
The Aave App itself is a DeFi product aimed at mainstream retail users, no longer serving only experienced on-chain players. Integrating the Ethereum mainnet, filling the core public chain asset entry point, marks an important step for Aave transitioning from a purely on-chain protocol to a mobile-end consumer product. The market has already responded positively (AAVE short-term price increase of 13.33%).
3. Enhanced ecosystem liquidity
Mainnet assets can be deposited with one click, improving capital flow efficiency. The liquidity depth of Aave’s lending pools will be strengthened, increasing protocol revenue.$MU earnings report after market close tomorrow.
The market expectations are already quite outrageous, with Q4 revenue expected to be around $50.9 billion, EPS over $31, and options have already priced in about ±7% volatility after the earnings.
So this earnings report is actually quite hard to beat.
It's not about whether MU is profitable or not, but with such high expectations, how good does the earnings have to be for the stock price to be satisfied?
Personally, I'm more interested in the prices of HBM and DRAM going forward, and how long the supply-demand tightness can last.
Especially the demand for 2027; if management continues to give strong guidance, the market might keep speculating on the AI storage line.
But if they start talking about supply improvements or price pressure, even if the profits are good this time, the stock price might take a hit first.
So tomorrow I won't just focus on EPS, mainly watching how management explains next year's supply and demand.
The most interesting thing about MU right now is:
The performance might already be very good, but what the market wants is for it to continue to exceed expectations. [BTC Intraday Analysis]
This time, the pullback from around 82700 is not a weak rebound. When the price dropped, long positions were cleared, and the price recovered back to 83300. The 1-hour volume increased while lifting the lows, indicating that support below has been established; however, the previous high at 84350 has not yet been truly taken over, and the market is in a consolidation phase before a breakout.
According to Bajie’s forecast, the price will first push to 84350, and after a volume-supported stabilization, it will target 84700–85300; if the rally lacks real momentum and falls back below 83700, it will retest around 83300. I expect tonight’s job vacancy data to show a mild cooling; if the price holds above 84000 after the data, the probability of an upward expansion will significantly increase. Today’s high target is 84700–85300, and the low target is 83300–83800.
Bajie’s grand stage: if you’re trapped, come to $BTC $ETH DOGE's current trend is clearly strong. After the Meme sector became active again, it remains the most established target that easily attracts large capital attention. Compared to small-cap Memes, DOGE has higher liquidity and market recognition, and when sentiment warms up, it is often the first choice for funds as a risk appetite indicator. Recently, the market has shown characteristics of rising volume, indicating that short-term buying is not weak. However, it should also be noted that the essence of the Meme market is still sentiment-driven; community enthusiasm, social media discussions, and the overall market strength all directly affect the pace. If volume remains steady and the market continues to be positive, DOGE is likely to stay active; if the hotspot shifts quickly, profit-taking chips may also cause significant volatility. $DOGEBig brother Maji is once again standing on the high-voltage line, fully long with $120 million, all three positions are currently at a floating loss.
ETH 25x main position: 36,000 coins, position value 96.23 million, entry price 2670.53, floating loss 174,400 U, accumulated funding fee -1,087,400 U, liquidation price 2581.42. Largest volume and highest risk concentration; if the price dips one more level, a chain reaction will immediately occur.
HYPE 10x: 226,000 coins, position value 19.629 million, floating loss 1,187,200 U, funding fee -51,100 U, liquidation price 73.05. This is the heaviest bleeding among the three positions, with altcoin volatility directly causing losses.
PUMP 10x: 800 million coins, position value 3.8872 million, floating loss 253,900 U, liquidation price close to 0, no immediate forced liquidation risk in the short term, but still trapped.
The heavy bets are on ETH + popular Meme rebounds, but the 25x ETH leverage is the biggest ticking time bomb. If ETH dips further, all three positions will trigger alarms simultaneously.
Dare to hold when the account is in the red, but when facing floating losses, you must also know how to shrink.
$BTC $ETH Bitget hackers tried to convert stolen funds into Bitcoin, but two cross-chain paths gave opposite answers.
NEAR Intents claimed its SHIELD system intercepted abnormal exchanges worth over $50 million, freezing $503,000 midway, with only about $166,000 slipping through, while the rest was diverted elsewhere.
In contrast, THORChain rejected Bitget's request to freeze addresses, arguing that it, like BTC and ETH, is permissionless.
Both claim to be "permissionless," yet one chooses to block while the other chooses to allow. Decentralization is not a shield from liability, but who defines "stolen funds" and by what standards to freeze them remains without industry consensus.? First, look at $ETH. This time I went all in with a 75x long position, opening around $2,758. Now it has dropped back to about $2,701, with an unrealized loss close to $30U. The liquidation price is around $2,600, which isn’t as far as I imagined. That’s how 75x leverage works: the market seems to move just a little, but the account already starts to fluctuate wildly. Every time the candlestick ticks, I feel my heartbeat jump along with it. On the other side, ZHIPU was opened with an 8x full long position, entry around $94.30, and the price slid all the way down to about $79.20, with an unrealized loss exceeding $60U. I originally thought I was looking for a low entry opportunity, but now I realize that sometimes "bottom fishing" just means catching halfway up the mountain. Together, these two positions have an unrealized loss close to $90U. The most painful part isn’t actually the loss amount, but knowing the risk is increasing while still constantly telling myself: "Wait a bit longer, maybe it will rebound soon." This sentence might be the most expensive one in trading. The market itself hasn’t been easy lately, with key data like non-farm payrolls and PCE approaching, US Treasury yields staying high, and risk assets under pressure; meanwhile, the market is also watching Micron’s earnings and the impact of AI storage demand on the tech sector sentiment. If macro data continues to reinforce high interest rate expectations, highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH may still experience sharp short-term fluctuations. So looking back now, the biggest lesson these two trades taught me isn’t "the direction was wrong," but rather:Damn coin, I'm just messing with you! I've been buying for 3 consecutive days and haven't won once. Could it be that this coin really can't be pumped up? I really don't accept it!
---
【Looking at the profit and loss rankings, my heart is bleeding】
Opening the analysis page, the profit and loss rankings for the past 30 days are like a public execution:
· ONE: -2,573.7 (king of losses, firmly in first place)
· AKE: -1,901.1 (number two demon coin, sharp spikes on both ends)
· ETH: -868.9
· The only one making money is BTC: +733.2
Including the previous ones, this month alone on the ONE coin, I've lost nearly three thousand yuan.
I don't accept it. Really don't accept it.
【Bought more again today, continuing to fight to the death】
Looking at today's 1-hour K-line, ONE has dropped all the way from the high of 0.0029 to now 0.00229, down another -8.97% in one day.
But with this kind of drop, I bought more again.
Bought for 3 consecutive days, never won once.
This is no longer a technical issue, this is psychological warfare. I just want to see if this damn coin can be pumped up even once!
Having lost so much, I can't bring myself to cut losses and short now. I'd rather gamble once more that it can rebound.
Watching the money in my account slowly decrease, that feeling of helplessness is really hard to bear.
$ONE $BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $ETH ETH (Ethereum) - $2,669
● 💡 Retail advice: Keep a close eye on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. If the rate weakens, it indicates ETH is relatively weak, prioritize reducing positions; if the rate strengthens, you can hold positions to bet on a rebound. Contract leverage must not exceed 3x.
● 📉 Forecast trend: Volatility will increase. If BTC falls, ETH may drop more sharply (-3% to -5%); if BTC rises, ETH as a high-elasticity asset may lead gains (+5% to +8%).
● 📰 Macro correlation: Recently supported by ETF inflows, performance has been strong, but with many high-leverage long positions, once there is macro negative news, chain liquidations can easily occur.
● ⚡️ News reference:
● 🔴 Negative: Tech stocks (Nasdaq) plunge, ETH often follows with even larger declines.
● 🟢 Positive: On-chain Gas fees rebound, ETF net inflows continue.ETC belongs to the PoW narrative and is a highly resilient asset within the rotation of established public chains. When market risk appetite increases, capital often looks beyond mainstream coins for directions with ample liquidity and high recognition, making ETC prone to gaining periodic attention. Its advantages lie in a clear roadmap and an existing base of miners and community, but challenges are also evident: ecological applications and new use cases are relatively limited, and its trend depends more on overall market sentiment and capital rotation. Key points to watch going forward are whether trading activity remains active and whether on-chain activity, miner ecology, or PoW-related topics can generate new catalysts. $ETCPOL represents the scaling, ZK technology, and enterprise-level application narrative of the Polygon ecosystem. When the market focuses on it, the emphasis is usually not on a single concept but on whether on-chain users, real transactions, developer activity, and business collaborations are growing simultaneously. Polygon's infrastructure is mature, and its ecosystem is extensive, but L2 competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and capital will more strictly screen networks with genuine usage. The recent recovery mainly reflects capital reassessing the established scaling ecosystem, but whether it can continue depends on subsequent data and incremental growth on the application side. Relying solely on the L2 concept itself makes it difficult to maintain high enthusiasm in the long term. $POLThe fundamental discussion of ATOM has always revolved around the Cosmos cross-chain architecture, IBC ecosystem, and modular development. Its issue is not that the technology lacks value, but that the current market funds are more chasing new public chains, Meme, and high-yield DeFi, resulting in relatively insufficient narrative exposure for ATOM. The recent volatile trend also reflects the ongoing disagreement between bulls and bears regarding its value capture ability. To attract incremental funds again in the future, the key lies in whether cross-chain applications expand, whether liquidity can improve, and whether the ecosystem can convert its technical advantages into clearer token value support. $ATOMOn-chain US Treasury debt broke through $15.1 billion, but $CFG retraced -0.3% in 24h: I'm bearish
The on-chain US Treasury scale broke through $15.1 billion over an hour ago, capturing the majority of the RWA market. The sector's positive news just landed, yet $CFG only moved from 0.1551 to 0.1572 (+1.35%), still down -0.3% in 24h — at this level, I'm directly bearish, in a high-level divergence retracement phase.
The main reason is the excessive rise: 7d +13.09%, 30d +37.53%, with 0.157 stuck near the 30-day range high of 0.751. After such gains, a retracement is normal, not a risk.
The order book structure is also turning bearish; daily RSI is 64.3, still in the strong zone, but the 1h SAR has flipped above the price, indicating weakening rebound momentum.
Resistance above: 0.1594
Support below: 0.1226 (daily MA30)
Positions are crowded; the long-short account ratio is 1.1896, funding rate neutral at 5e-05, fear-greed index 73 still in greed zone, mainstream coin long-short ratio average 2.26. When crowded positions unwind, retracements are sharp and deep.
My strategy is straightforward: enter short at current price 0.157, stop loss if it breaks above 0.1594, first target 0.148, if broken then look at 0.1226.
Watching the market, follow me for the next signal.
$CFG $BTCThe core focus on NIGHT lies in the narrative of privacy infrastructure. As the market revisits the balance between data protection, programmable privacy, and compliance scenarios, related projects tend to attract thematic funding. Currently, NIGHT seems more like it is trading on expectations of ecosystem growth; the subsequent focus remains on mainnet advancement, developer onboarding, application deployment, and user adoption. The privacy sector has significant potential, but it also heavily depends on periodic news catalysts, making its price movements potentially more sensitive than typical public chain assets. If the ecosystem continues to make new progress, the hype is easier to sustain; if there is a lack of implementation, funds may shift to other hotspots. $NIGHTPUMP still carries strong Meme and platform token speculation attributes, with its trend highly correlated to the issuance heat on the Solana chain, community dissemination speed, and risk capital sentiment. If the market favors high-elasticity assets, PUMP usually becomes the direction for rapid capital aggregation; however, when the spotlight shifts or the Meme sector cools down, the liquidity of chips also loosens very quickly. Recently, it is worth paying attention to whether platform activity continues, whether enthusiasm for new project issuance rebounds, and whether on-chain transactions maintain high frequency. For PUMP, trading volume and discussion often influence short-term performance more than traditional fundamentals. $PUMPThe earliest time I bought coins was after seeing a colleague show off screenshots.
He said just hold $BTC with your eyes closed.
I believed him and threw in a few thousand yuan.
The next day after buying, it turned red.
At that time, I even skipped breakfast.
I secretly checked the market at work and got stared down by my supervisor several times.
Later I understood, this thing isn’t about who’s smarter.
It’s about who can endure more and who knows their own limits.
When holding $ETH, I’d get itchy hands when it rose a bit.
When it dropped a bit, I’d curse myself for being reckless.
Selling made me afraid of missing out, not selling made me afraid of losses, constantly slapping my own face.
Later when I got into $SOL, it was so fast it made my scalp tingle.
It would surge up in minutes and crash down in minutes.
If you have a weak heart, really don’t touch it.
Now I rarely check groups.
I take trading calls as jokes.
Those showing off profits mostly want you to take over their positions.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it’s all traps.
I’ve seen people get wildly arrogant after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
In this circle, people turn on each other faster than flipping a book.
So I only use spare money; losing it doesn’t affect my meals.
If I earn, I don’t get cocky; if I lose, I don’t make a fuss; as long as I can sleep well.
Don’t mistake luck for skill.
Don’t treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the arrogant; I’ve long accepted that. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Single Coin Capital Movement Ranking
$XDP price is relatively strong, with balanced active transactions: The 15-minute K-line of this root rose by 3.02%; in the statistics of three 5-minute groups, sellers account for 47.6% and buyers 52.4%; open interest decreased by 1.30%, open interest value changed by +1.86%, with quantity decreasing and value rising simultaneously, the valuation change offset the quantity contraction. The price shows an upward trend, active transactions do not show a clear one-sided bias, and the current strength is mainly reflected in the price performance.The recent trend of XLM resembles a capital return to traditional payment assets. Beyond the high volatility narrative, the market is beginning to refocus on cross-border settlement, stablecoin circulation, and compliant payment infrastructure, which has given XLM some rotation heat. Its advantages are high recognition and relatively good liquidity; once market sentiment improves, it often experiences rapid recovery. However, the sustainability of this trend still depends on whether trading volume can continue and whether the ecosystem has payment partnerships, on-chain applications, or stablecoin-related progress to support it. If it is just a temporary capital switch, it is likely to enter a consolidation phase after a surge. $XLM#Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损
Anthropic's IPO prospectus has been released, and wow, it has fully exposed the AI industry's "selling blood to fund R&D" reality.
Look at these numbers: revenue is projected to hit $4.59 billion in 2025, a 12-fold year-over-year surge. Sounds impressive, right? But if you look further, operating losses exceed $8 billion, with $7.33 billion spent on computing infrastructure. In simple terms, they burn $1.6 to earn $1. They have $20.3 billion in cash on hand, but at this pace, it won't last long. There's also a net loss of $42 billion, mainly due to revaluation of financing instruments, plus about $518 billion in computing contracts over the next few years weighing down. The market is already starting to discuss its IPO valuation at $2 trillion.
So what impact does this have on our crypto space? I'll break it down in two layers.
First layer: the liquidity pump has been upgraded again.
Second layer: the AI concept in crypto will accelerate a major reshuffle.
Here’s my take.
Don’t blindly rush in just because of big AI deals. In the short term, this means capital diversion and reshuffling, which is bearish for crypto. But looking longer term, when the world's top capital is pouring money into this bottomless pit of computing power, the value of computing itself is being redefined. Bitcoin, as the most primitive expression of computing power, will only have its fundamental logic strengthened. The direction is right; just don’t catch the falling knife when emotions are hottest.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH The biggest USDT story today is regulatory scrutiny of Tether.
* 🇺🇸 U.S. Senate investigators released a report examining 846 crypto wallets linked to Iran and regional groups. They said 84% had transacted exclusively or almost exclusively in USDT.
* ⚠️ The report has prompted calls for the U.S. Treasury and Justice Department to investigate Tether’s sanctions and AML compliance. This is an allegation/report from Democratic investigators, not a final finding by the full Senate. Between September 21 and September 27, the Strategy spent a total of $142.7 million to purchase 1,665 Bitcoin, with an average purchase price of approximately $85,681. During this period, 1,469,165 shares of $MSTR common stock were sold on the market through ATM, net financing was about $246.2 million, and no preferred stock was sold.
As of September 27, $MSTR's $BTC holdings increased to 847,666 coins, with a total purchase cost of about $63.95 billion and an average holding price of approximately $75,437.
In the past week, MSTR also spent $151.7 million to repurchase 1,534,530 shares of $STRC, with a disclosed repurchase price of about $98.86 per share. All funds used to buy Bitcoin this week came from the net proceeds of selling MSTR common stock. The repurchase of STRC used $103.5 million of that amount, with an additional $48.1 million from existing cash.
The combined expenditure for buying Bitcoin and repurchasing STRC was about $294.4 million. After the repurchase, the preferred stock repurchase plan still has a remaining quota of $723.5 million, and the MSTR common stock repurchase plan has an additional $1 billion quota. This week, MSTR also used $22.1 million from reserves to pay preferred stock dividends.$AAVE $ICP 3.362, up 13.73%. L1 sector, rising steadily from 2.37, just broke the previous high on the 4-hour chart. RSI 65.89, approaching overbought but not extreme yet, EMA7 (3.16) providing support. No obvious resistance above, light positions can be considered near 3.16 on pullback, avoid chasing hard at 3.36.
$CRV 0.3966, up 20.54%. DeFi sector, surged directly from 0.30 to 0.40, very aggressive movement. RSI 70.90, already overbought, 0.405 above is previous high resistance. Such a 20% single-day surge may trigger profit-taking anytime. Take profits on rallies if already in, if not yet in, wait for a pullback to 0.368 (EMA7) before considering, do not chase.
$AAVE 162.92, up 11.72%. DeFi leader, rising steadily from 113 to 163. News pushed "Aavenomics 3.0" with substantial positive impact. RSI 67.77, near overbought, EMA7 (152) providing support. Light positions can be tried near 152 on pullback, exit if it breaks below 150 (EMA30), avoid chasing hard at 163.
Summary: Watch for profit-taking on CRV and ICP due to short-term overheating, look for pullback opportunities on AAVE. Do not chase highs, protect your principal.
#ICP #CRV #AAVE #MarketAnalysis