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#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? I find this wave of Bitcoin's movement very interesting,
briefly surging to around 82,828, failing to break through 83,000, then starting to decline. Bears tried to crash the market near 82,000, hitting a low of 81,675, but they may have underestimated the bulls' support strength. The price was quickly bought back and is now back near 81,900. What does this indicate? I believe there is indeed short-term selling pressure, but there are also many buyers waiting below.
In the news, Charles Schwab announced that all clients can directly purchase Bitcoin, covering over 40 million customers. This kind of news won't cause Bitcoin to surge immediately, but its significance is real: traditional financial channels are gradually opening, and incremental funds are no longer just hot money within the crypto circle but more allocation-oriented capital.
So for the short-term bulls and bears, I think it can be understood like this:
The bearish side: Bitcoin had a previous surge, some took profits; there is trapped capital near 83,000; the market currently lacks particularly strong new catalysts, so pushing higher will be tough.
The bullish side: traditional institutional access is expanding, spot buying is relatively strong; bears failed to push below 81,695, indicating limited panic selling; every deep dip finds willing buyers.
My conclusion is: the short term is more likely to be a consolidation digestion rather than a one-sided bearish turn. I won't panic because of a single bearish candle, nor will I chase during a surge. $BTC $ZEC $SOL #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ PPI skyrocketed, but the market is hyped? ZEC surged ridiculously, shorts got liquidated for $160 million again! This market is truly surreal😱
Clearly, PPI exceeded expectations across the board, so why didn't the negative news hit the market? The core reason: short covering. BTC first spiked to 79,800, shorts thought they had it in the bag, but 90 minutes later it reversed sharply above 82,300; ZEC blasted from 1,071 to 1,233, my hedged short got wiped out💥
Three driving forces:
1️⃣ US Treasury yields fell from 5.36% to 5.04%, giving risk assets a breather.
2️⃣ Trump pressured Congress to advance crypto legislation, Treasury expanded bond buybacks, policy expectations ignited sentiment.
3️⃣ $160 million in shorts liquidated in 24 hours, longs only $54.82 million, a short squeeze triggered🔥
Did you get swept in this move? Will the rebound continue, or will it fall back after short covering ends and momentum fades?🤔Funds are flowing out of Dogecoin. From October 7 to 8, DOGE long positions were liquidated for $16 million; in the previous four days, $55 million flowed out of the spot market. These two sums come from different directions: one is forced liquidation of leveraged positions, the other is holders selling to exit.
In terms of scale alone, this round of withdrawal is not fatal. DOGE's daily trading volume is between $500 million and $1 billion, so the $55 million outflow accounts for only a small portion of several days' volume, and the market depth is sufficient to absorb it. The key lies in the direction: liquidations indicate leveraged long funds are exiting, and spot outflows indicate real capital is also withdrawing. Both lines point to the same conclusion — money is leaving DOGE, not just circulating within the market.
The synchronized withdrawal of leverage and spot is more worth tracking than a single day's large liquidation. Forced liquidations can be completed within a day, but spot outflows require holders to make selling decisions day after day. The outflow lasting four days means sellers are not leaving passively but are reducing exposure.
Next, watch two signals: whether spot outflows slow down and whether liquidation scale decreases. If outflows continue while trading volume declines, $DOGE's rebound will lack support; if outflows converge, this withdrawal looks more like a position adjustment rather than a trend reversal.The market suddenly quieted down, BTC stuck around 80,980, ETH hovering around 2,400, and I was staring at that 4-hour chart, feeling a jolt in my heart. Can these two whole number levels really hold? Honestly, this drop is not undeserved. Both the US CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, pushing back rate cut expectations, and risk appetite shrank directly. Not to mention the sudden escalation in US-Iran tensions, global funds instinctively fleeing to safe-haven assets, with high-leverage markets like crypto taking the hardest hit. One number is quite striking: the correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq once surged to 0.96, almost moving in lockstep, indicating it is now being traded purely as a risk asset. The ETF side doesn’t look good either. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $146 million this week, and the ETH ETF outflow was about $60 million. That previous large IBIT trade of $1.3 billion now looks more like institutions reducing positions rather than just turnover. With thin buying, prices naturally slide easily. Technically, my feeling is that the bears have strong momentum. BTC’s 4-hour ADX reached 51.77, far exceeding the 25 trend confirmation line, indicating this downtrend is serious. 80,000 is a psychological barrier and also a key reference below the IBIT holding cost of 81,500; if it closes below continuously, ETF investors will face unrealized losses again, possibly triggering a new round of redemptions. ETH has already lost 2,357 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Waiting in cash for the wind｜ETF tide recedes, CPI strikes again 🌪️
No surprises on the funding front: BTC spot ETFs saw another outflow of about $65.4 million, with BlackRock iShares IBIT as the main drag, while 11 others basically stood by; ETH was weaker, with a single-day outflow of about $85.4 million, totaling about $151 million. The one-day rebound was just a splash, continuous inflows are needed to stop the bleeding, which we haven't seen yet.📉
I have taken profits on over 84,000 contracts and remain in cash. CPI exceeded expectations, inflation has risen for three months, the shadow of rate hikes returns, so Bitcoin naturally struggles to breathe. ETFs and short-term prices sometimes diverge; there is buying interest, but it's not consistent, chasing longs is not worthwhile.🧊
Strategy: Don't rush to bottom-fish yet, let CPI and TSMC earnings play out a bit. Watch the 80,000 level below; if 82,000 doesn't break, treat it as a range-bound market. Bank channel expansion is a slow process and won't rescue short-term funds. Don't chase rallies or panic sell, set stop losses properly. Timing matters, risk control first, good luck.✅What exactly happened with the sharp plunge in storage stocks? 📉
To sum it up in one sentence:
The collective drop in Micron MU, SanDisk SNDK, and SK Hynix this time isn’t due to a sudden collapse in the storage industry fundamentals, but rather a combination of "valuation cuts + disappearance of Korean capital support + lowered AI expectations + rising US Treasury yields" all hitting at once.
So this round looks more like a high-level valuation kill rather than a complete reversal of industry logic.
//
🧨 01｜Why did it fall so sharply this time?
I think the first trigger was the early end of buybacks by the two major Korean storage giants.
Previously, the large buybacks by Samsung and SK Hynix essentially provided a "safety cushion" for the stock prices.
But after the buybacks ended early in early October, the market started to worry:
There won’t be major players continuously buying back to support prices anymore.
Korean market funds began concentrated selling, and the pressure then further transmitted to the US storage sector.
So MU and SNDK, which were already at high levels, easily became targets for profit-taking.
//
📉 02｜What really scares the market is 2027–2028
This is the point I think is most easily overlooked.
The current fundamentals aren’t actually as bad as many imagine.
HBM and server DRAM demand remain strong, some product prices are still rising, and orders haven’t suddenly disappeared.
The problem is:
Capital markets never speculate on today, but on the future.If ETH's recent sideways movement is actually accumulation rather than a cooldown, then what we should be watching most closely now is not ETH itself, but the interaction rhythm between it, ZEC, and BTC. Have you noticed that recently, the real first movers often aren't ETH? My own feeling is that ETH is repeatedly consolidating with shrinking volume, which looks like "no market activity," but such phases are often the silence before a launch, not distribution. The mindset in the original text about wanting to add to positions to average down, yet fearing that short positions at 850 won't break even, is actually very typical: position anxiety outweighs structural judgment. But the market won't change direction because of anyone's cost basis. Let's look at the facts first. ETH's volatility narrowing and some accumulation indicates selling pressure is temporarily light; but "shrinking volume" itself does not mean "it will rise," it only means the divergence is narrowing. What truly determines the next move is cross-market linkage: if BTC holds its high level, risk appetite will spill over, and high-beta assets like ETH and ZEC will have room for catch-up gains; conversely, if BTC loses its key range, ETH's sideways movement will turn from accumulation into a false calm before distribution. ZEC is even more subtle. Treating "liquidation price safety" as a safety cushion is a blind spot many overlook. Liquidation line safety only means you won't be forcibly liquidated for now, it doesn't mean the direction is on your side. ZEC's volatility has always been more extreme than ETH's; once the sector rotates to privacy narratives or altcoin catch-up, it may suddenly surge; but if the overall market weakens, its pullback will be faster and deeper. So ZEC's "safety" is relative, depending on whether BTC cooperates. At this stage, I tend to define it as divergence $MSTR yesterday started from 140, placing orders in batches down to 120, then I went to sleep. When I woke up, I found only trades executed down to 135. After the market closed, the system automatically canceled the remaining orders. I then re-placed orders, setting them to be valid until canceled, placing them down to 120. After hours, another trade executed at 136. I'm not greedy; 120-13x is my plan and target for building my position.
Currently, the average executed price is over 137, which is like buying BTC at a 10% discount. Although I know MSTR hasn't bottomed yet, I'm quite satisfied with this price. Before the main upward wave starts, being able to buy below the 200-day weekly moving average and all long-term daily moving averages is good. My price is higher than predecessors, but I saved a lot of waiting time, and it's more cost-effective than buying BTC spot directly—at a 10% discount.
$BTC price is basically around 815, not moving much, but last night $MSTR dropped over 10% due to panic from excluding the index, with rumors that passive funds would sell 2 billion. For a 60 billion market cap, 2 billion isn't that panic-inducing; sellers can issue 2 billion anytime. I think the market is overreacting, and this is a very good buying opportunity, but it will take time to verify my judgment.
Building positions in batches from September to November, my investment work in October has made significant progress ✅
Currently, MSTR is at an 11% discount, October is the discount month, I'm not lying to you Friends always ask: Where exactly are the bottom and top of $BTC? Changing the frame of reference, the answer is much clearer than candlestick charts. By comparing Bitcoin's market cap to gold's market cap, a stepwise upward trajectory emerges. Bull market tops: 4.2% in 2017, 10.3% in 2021, 11.4% in 2025. Bear market lows: 0.73% in 2018, 2.65% in 2022, and the current cycle's phase low appeared in June 2026, around 4.2%. The most striking signal is here: the current bear market phase low has already matched the 2017 bull market top. Each deep crash has been severe, but the valuation anchor based on gold has never stopped rising. This is no coincidence; it reflects the continuous depreciation of fiat currency re-pricing hard assets—gold rises first, $BTC follows, just with more intense rhythm. How to calculate the top? If the ratio returns to the previous high of 11.4%, $BTC would be about $167,000. But this is a static assumption. If gold rises another 50% in the same period, the same ratio would push $BTC to around $250,000. The same ratio, two completely different prices—the difference lies entirely in gold's pricing. The market generally only focuses on the dollar price, ignoring the expanding denominator. Most people treat the bear market low as a "zeroing rehearsal," but they don't see that the low itself is systemically rising—this is the most underestimated narrative of the current cycle. Confirmation signals to watch are twofold: whether gold continues its strength, and whether the $BTC-to-gold ratio can hold above 4.2% and break upward. If the ratio falls below this area #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ US inflation data for September cooled the market for two consecutive days. CPI year-on-year surged to 3.7%, with the core reaching 2.6%; then PPI was even more exaggerated, soaring to 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, both significantly exceeding expectations. Energy was the main driver, but core indicators were also hot, indicating that pressure is spreading more broadly, not just an oil price issue.
After this data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve quickly adjusted. The probability of a rate hike at the October meeting once approached 50/50 after the CPI release, then fell back to around 20%, and now it is more inclined to hold steady; but by December, the probability of another hike is significantly higher. At least one more rate hike this year has become the mainstream view.
Current rates are already in the 3.75%-4% range, with a hike just in September. Chairman Warsh repeatedly emphasized in public that "price stability must be achieved," but deliberately gave no path guidance. Most other officials also believe another move is needed this year, just not urgently in October. The labor market is still holding up, so the Fed is not yet cornered. $ETH $BTC With the midterm elections approaching, policy communication will be more cautious, but the data itself has put the "another rate hike this year" option back on the table.
In short: the signal of inflation picking up again is quite clear, the probability of another rate hike this year is not low, but the timing is more likely in December rather than the end of this month. Subsequent focus will be on PCE and employment data.#HBM4 mass production: Can it drive SK Hynix's profits to new highs again? $BTC 5 Basic Takeaways for Traders Today
1) BTC is currently around 81662–81700, neither a bottom nor a breakout level.
2) Fed's Wash "no forecast" = short-term rate hike panic eases, but December remains uncertain.
3) Institutions buying, retail selling is a slow variable, not an intraday pump.
4) 10Y US Treasury at 5.12%, Brent oil at 110, Nasdaq down 2% — all are ceilings above BTC.
5) Key levels 80800/82500, no break no follow, if broken don’t chase the tail.
Don’t be a hero today, be alive. Surviving 81700 is more important than making 300 bucks above 81700. $BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC The US deficit is off the charts, which is a long-term narrative for BTC, not a short-term catalyst
The federal deficit for fiscal year 2026 is $1.99 trillion, with net interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion for the first time. China's holdings of US debt are at their lowest since 2008, and the UK’s holdings have surpassed $1 trillion. In the long run, this fuels BTC's "scarce asset" narrative: fiat credit is being consumed by fiscal spending, and institutions are gradually allocating. But short-term traders don’t speculate on 2028; they only trade based on next Wednesday’s FedWatch. So don’t trust the “deficit bull” in the short term at 81700, but in the long term, you can trust that “institutional net inflows into the US = increased BTC allocation demand.” Don’t mix these two logics. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Gold’s been in a genuine multi year rerating 3,000 to 5,000+ while BTC spent that same stretch chopping in an 80-160K range and is sitting right back near the bottom of it. If bitcoin were actually being priced as “digital gold” here, the two charts would rhyme. They don’t.
So today’s 2% reads more like short covering on a volatile tape than a structural safe-haven shift. The real test is whether $BTC can start compressing its range the way gold compressed its trend that hasn’t happened yet.$BTC USD fell, but BTC didn't surge much, what does it mean?
Today the US dollar index dropped for the week, and according to the usual script, BTC should have surged. But BTC is stuck around 81700, indicating that the "weak dollar" bullish factor is overshadowed by "US Treasury yield at 5.12% + oil price at 110 + US stock decline." Now BTC is the soft target caught in multiple macro pressures: gold can rise (safe haven), oil can rise (inflation), US Treasuries can rise (safe haven), but B coins can't rise (the most liquid among risk assets). Don't blindly go long BTC just because the dollar falls. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC semiconductor sector has fallen for eight consecutive days; BTC's “tech brother” is struggling
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped for eight straight days, the longest streak since 2008. CoreWeave is under debt pressure, AI capital expenditures are being questioned, and funds are moving from tech to energy/utilities/government bonds. BTC is often classified as a “tech risk asset,” not as pure as “digital gold.” So today, BTC didn’t surge to 4200 with gold but instead fell along with the Nasdaq, which is very reasonable. To turn 81700 into 85000, we need AI/semiconductors to stop falling; otherwise, every rebound gets dragged down by tech stock liquidations. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC CME FedWatch is the real invisible manipulator of BTC
Don't just focus on Binance depth, CME FedWatch is the pricing anchor today. The probability of no change in October is 82%–87%, with a 15% chance of a rate hike; but the probability of a rate hike in December is still high. BTC traders now watch three things daily: FedWatch, 10Y US Treasury, and Nasdaq futures. The support at 81700 holds because the October rate hike panic has subsided; the failure to break above 81700 is because the December tightening has not been lifted. If you trade based on the phrase "bullish rebound," sooner or later the interest rate expectations will teach you a lesson. #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 TSMC's Q3 report is impressive: revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit of 763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-over-year, a single-quarter record and exceeding expectations. 2nm accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes totaling 79%, and AI chip demand still providing support.📈
However, the stock price fell 2.67%. The market is not focused on profit but on the gross margin guidance: 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. This raises concerns that even with strong AI demand, the cost of advanced processes is eroding profits. Whether capital expenditures will continue to increase is also a point to watch.🔍
For BTC, the relationship is indirect, but the logic is similar. TSMC is a key supplier for AI computing infrastructure, and the results show AI demand is real, the computing power economy narrative remains intact, and BTC's long-term anchoring logic still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance means the cost of burning cash is rising, and semiconductor chain valuations need to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still pressured by CPI exceeding expectations, so TSMC's impact is secondary.🧭
In terms of trading, don't impulsively chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI to settle, see how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to buy.⚖️🚨 4.08 million $BTC have fallen into the hands of short-term holders! Why do I feel like the powder keg for Bitcoin's next big wave of volatility is already stacked?
Brothers, don't just focus on BTC rising by hundreds or falling by thousands of dollars today! This on-chain data, I think, is even more worth pondering than the candlestick charts!
The latest data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders' positions have reached 4.08 million coins, hitting a new high since mid-June. Compared to the end of July, it increased by 422,000 coins, a rise of about 12%!
At first glance, it looks great! Newcomers are still entering, and some are willing to take the coins, indicating the market isn't cold.
But I'm actually a bit worried because buying more doesn't mean holding more steadily!
Why do I say that?
First, new buyers mainly entered around $82,000 to $86,000. This batch of chips has a high cost basis; if BTC dips a bit, some might not be able to hold on.
Second, buying momentum has clearly slowed! About 154,000 coins were added in the first two weeks of October, but only 48,000 coins in the past week. People are still buying, but the enthusiasm is obviously less than before.
Third, and what I care about most: the unrealized profit buffer for short-term holders has shrunk from 16% to 10%!
What does this mean? Previously, a small drop was called a correction; now, if it drops a bit more deeply, some might start scrambling to exit!
Personally, I don't think this is purely bearish. It's better to have someone taking the coins than no one, but the more concentrated the short-term chips are, the more sensitive the market is to price fluctuations.
Next, I will focus on the average cost line of short-term holders near $74,900. If it holds, the market still has room to digest floating chips; if it really breaks down, the selling pressure might be fiercer than expected.
What the bull market fears most is not that no one buys, but that those who buy think they can run before others! 😂
Finally, I ask everyone: Are these 4.08 million BTC the fuel for the next rally, or the chips for the next big shakeout?BTC rose from about $60,000 to $87,000, a stage increase of 45%. The funding rate was mostly only mildly positive, without sustained extreme spikes. This indicates that the rise was not entirely driven by perpetual contract chasing, leverage sentiment did not completely spiral out of control, and the structure is healthier than a high-leverage-driven market.
But this is characteristic of the rising phase. With the US September CPI and PPI exceeding expectations and rate hike expectations heating up, BTC fell below $83,000, the funding rate turned negative, and Binance BTC funding rate once dropped to -0.0073%, with shorts regaining dominance. The market has shifted from mild bullishness to short-term defense.
ETF capital flows are also unstable: on October 15, the spot ETF had a net inflow of only $5.05 million, while the previous day saw a net outflow of $261 million. Glassnode indicates liquidity thinned near $82,000, and buy orders below $80,000 concentrated around $78,000, representing passive defense.
The framework of price rising with mild funding rates still holds, but the current environment has changed. The key points to watch next are: whether $80,000 can hold, whether ETFs can sustain net inflows, and how long the funding rate remains in negative territory before reversing. If spot buying holds steady, bulls still have a chance to push further; if liquidity continues to thin, correction volatility may increase.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC stablecoin flows tell you: Americans are buying BTC, overseas are buying dollars
Another interesting point from Chainalysis: the main increase in stablecoins is overseas (digital dollar demand), while Americans rely more on BTC for value storage. So the US becoming a net inflow country for BTC does not mean a global bull frenzy. Overseas funds are avoiding local currency risk, using USDT/USDC to hold dollars; US institutions use BTC to hedge fiscal deficits and dollar credit. Today, the US 2026 fiscal year deficit is 1.99 trillion, with interest expenses exceeding one trillion. In this context, institutions allocating BTC is very reasonable. But this is a "slow money logic," not a "pump tomorrow logic." There is underlying buying at 81700, but no short squeeze fuel. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Sun Yuchen said something many people don't want to hear.
If quantum computing poses a threat to Bitcoin $BTC within two years, can Bitcoin complete a full network upgrade within that time?
He said: almost impossible. He joined the Bitcoin community in 2012 and knows very well the pace of technological progress. The last Bitcoin SegWit upgrade caused two years of community disputes, and in the end, it wasn't an "upgrade completed" but a "fork"—Bitcoin gained a sibling $BCH from then on. The Taproot upgrade went relatively smoothly but still took 3 years. Most people in the crypto industry have no idea how slow consensus is reached on the Bitcoin network, and the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is seriously underestimated.
No one knows when quantum computing will be able to crack Bitcoin.
But the fact that "Bitcoin upgrades are slow" doesn't require waiting for quantum computers—it has already played out several times over the past decade.
Do you think this is alarmist, or a real hidden danger? On the chessboard, when an opponent suddenly sacrifices a rook on the seventeenth move, an ordinary player might think it was a mistake. A grandmaster sees that the sacrifice secures an entire open file and absolute dominance for the next twenty moves.
The IEA's warning on October 14th is that sacrificed rook. Diesel shortages may persist until the second half of 2027, even if refinery capacity recovers by year-end. Diesel and gasoil exports in September dropped by about 700,000 barrels per day year-on-year, with supply lines from the Middle East and Russia both disrupted. Ukraine has restarted refinery strikes, and there was a fire in Ryazan. Putin has vowed to respond, but capacity losses remain unclear. The US-Russia diesel agreement awaits delivery, despite eased restrictions. The IEA is pushing for reserve releases, including diesel.
Look closely at the endgame piece structure: the supply-side bishops and knights have left the center; export risks weigh on the pawn chain protecting the king's wing, and inflation is the pinned king. The market currently sees spot tightness; the grandmaster sees structural, multi-year pawn paralysis. Reserve releases are just a temporary buffer, delaying check but not resolving it.
Now consider the linked assets. The so-called tokenized US stocks are essentially passed pawns in this game—they cannot form a strong position independently and must rely on the parent stock's moves, which itself is constrained by both interest rates and energy costs. Every step up in diesel prices raises the cost lines for transportation, manufacturing, and chemicals. Once inflation expectations rise again, the path for rate cuts shrinks, and valuations face a forced liquidation. This is not a flat line; it is a tactical combination waiting for the opponent to execute.
On a deeper level: simultaneous supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia mean pricing power is shifting from a buyer's market to a seller's market. The IEA releasing reserves is using its reserve pawns to block the opponent's promotion. But reserves are limited, and time has a cost. If relief only comes in 2027, then the next two years will be a midgame chokehold for all diesel-dependent economies. Restarting refineries solves tactical issues; capacity losses and geopolitical retaliation are strategic issues—these are on different levels.
The real killer moves often hide in seemingly calm endgames. While everyone watches when refineries will resume, the grandmaster watches: if reserves run out early and geopolitical disruptions escalate, what are the second and third moves? No one has calculated this line. Bulls in the market cheer a rebound, but the true checkmate awaits in the 2027 endgame corner.
H2 2027 is not the end; it is the moment the pawn structure freezes. #ieadieselshortageto2027 The blueprint was just unfolded when the client withdrew. On October 14, VanEck filed with the SEC to withdraw the registration documents for the Lido staked Ethereum ETF—note, this blueprint never obtained a construction permit, no concrete was poured, no floor slab was sold. This is not an abandoned project; it’s a land application withdrawal before even holding a groundbreaking ceremony. As someone who deals with approval departments daily, I’m very familiar with this move: sometimes it’s due to issues with the geological survey report, sometimes the client’s funding stress test fails, sometimes the queue at the plan review window is too long, so they withdraw and reapply. VanEck gave no specific reason; such silence in the construction industry is often more telling than any statement.
The real structural problem isn’t the withdrawal of this building but the foundation water level of the entire block. On October 13, there was a net inflow, but the next day about $130 million flowed out, and on October 15 another approximately $18.3 million flowed out. What is this? It’s the load-bearing wall undergoing repeated tensile and compressive cyclic loads, indicating the soil layer beneath the foundation slab was never properly compacted. On this street of spot Ethereum ETFs, cranes appear everywhere on the surface, but in reality, half the projects haven’t even properly installed their pile foundations. The staking function is an added cantilever structure; if the regulatory approval for seismic resistance is unclear, all design plans must be redrawn.
It must be clearly understood: this withdrawal only involves a single product and does not mean the entire area’s planning has been rejected. The overall planning permit for the staked Ethereum ETF is still pending approval in the review hall without a stamp. Anyone who misinterprets the withdrawal of a single project as the failure of the entire zoning plan commits the cardinal sin of architects—using the settlement data of one building to infer the geological structure of an entire city.
As for the linkage with the US stock token $xMSTR, I can only say: displacement of the main structure will inevitably transmit to the attached podium, but the transmission path and attenuation coefficient depend on whether there is a structural joint between them. Right now, this joint is filled with emotional capital, and the resonance frequency is very unstable.
Architects’ iron rule: blueprint withdrawal is common; whether the foundation has cracks is the critical issue. Currently, the spacing of the rebar in this block’s foundation slab is being reexamined. #vaneckdropslidoetf🌪️【Urgent Meteorological Bulletin】A super typhoon eye codenamed "2 Nanometer" has formed over the Northwest Pacific, with central pressure plummeting to a historic low. Its outer circulation has already swept across the entire semiconductor ocean!
Everyone, adjust the radar to the TSMC sea area. Q3 revenue reached 1,490 billion New Taiwan Dollars, soaring 50.9% year-over-year; net profit hit 763.1 billion, jumping 68.7% year-over-year—this is not ordinary rainfall, but a full monsoon outbreak. Quarterly records have been rewritten, and all forecast models underestimated the actual situation. Having worked in this field for many years, what I fear most is when reality exceeds the upper forecast bounds, as it means the old circulation models have failed.
The key lies in the moisture source. The 2-nanometer process contributes 8% of wafer revenue, and 79% of advanced nodes form the main cloud system of this downpour. In other words, this is not scattered convection but an organized mesoscale convective complex with concentrated energy and strong persistence. The real moisture conveyor belt is AI chip demand—it acts like a stable low-level jet, continuously pumping warm, moist air into the storm core, causing a system that should weaken in autumn to instead intensify.
Now, looking at the downstream impact area. The US stock mapped target XMSTR is located in the downstream convergence zone of this jet stream, theoretically receiving the overflow of warm, moist air. But you must understand one thing: downstream precipitation never equals upstream intensity. Terrain, wind shear, and boundary layer conditions all rewrite the rainfall distribution. The current market sentiment index is in the greed zone, like abnormally high sea surface temperatures, which provide enhancement potential but also risk rapid intensification followed by sudden weakening. Credit spreads are widening, signaling disturbances in upper-level divergence—too rapid updrafts and excessive suction often mean compensatory subsidence later.
One more reminder: the advanced nodes on the foundry side are only one of the rainfall centers in the entire industry chain; storage, packaging, and equipment are independent rain belts. Focusing on just one rain gauge risks missing the flood risk of the whole region. The current typhoon path forecast maintains a strong typhoon level in the short term, but after 72 hours, it will enter a mid-level dry air zone, causing intensity bifurcation—whether it maintains strength or rapidly fills depends on the stability of the AI capital expenditure moisture channel.
Our observation conclusion is clear: this is not an isolated thunderstorm but a large-scale circulation adjustment. The main channel of warm, moist air is tilting toward computing infrastructure. Any position laid out against this jet stream will be exposed to strong wind shear. #tsmcq3recordprofit"Inflation is hot, officials are slow to react, BTC takes a breather (｡･ω･｡)"
September PPI year-on-year at 6.3%, expected 5.3%; month-on-month 1.3%, expected 0.5%, core PPI also exceeded expectations. Along with the previous day's CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, core at 2.6%, both higher than expected, two consecutive sets of data indicate: inflation hasn't cooled down (╯﹏╰).
According to the script, bets on rate hikes should soar. But on October 16, Waller did not predict future rates nor gave clues about an October rate hike; Daly and Goolsbee were equally cautious. So the market's bet on a 25bp hike in October dropped to about 15%. Hot data, cold officials, has become the biggest contradiction right now (￣▽￣).
BTC thus gained a short-term window. Pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields eased, risk assets caught a break. BTC is around 82,000, down slightly 0.14% in 24 hours, little movement. Support is at 81,500–82,000, breaking below looks at 80,000; resistance is at 83,500–84,500, hard to break without volume.
But don't rush to cheer. PPI at 6.3% is real cost pressure, energy and services both rising, the root of inflation remains. Whether to hike within the year and when, disagreements persist, and the Fed won't pivot based on a single speech. BTC's breather, cherish it while it lasts (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC $ETH
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC 80800 is the key level, not 81700
81700 is just the price given by users, the real key level is 80800. Today BTC/USD bottomed at 80809, futures bottomed at 80805, almost the same level. If it breaks again during the Asian session on Monday, stop-loss orders will be triggered, and 79k, 77k will come quickly. Conversely, 82500 with today's high at 82940 failing to hold indicates there is a double pressure of trapped longs and macro shorts above 83k. So don't ask "Can I buy at 81700?" Instead, ask "Can 80800 hold?" Holding means consolidation and recovery; failing means finding a new bottom in the next range. Traders are currently placing orders roughly between 80800 and 82500, brushing both ends. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC spot ETF hasn't crashed, but it hasn't been bought crazily either
Many people ask: With such strong institutional holdings, why is BTC still at 81,000? Because ETFs are not unlimited buyers. Spot BTC ETFs have "net inflows but at a slow pace," not buying up every day. In today's market, institutions are more likely to place limit buy orders at 80k or 78k rather than chasing 81,700. Retail investors always think "BlackRock buying = immediate pump," but actually their allocation is annualized with quarterly rebalancing, so they don't care if you gain 3% or lose 3% today. So when looking at institutional holdings, don't just look at "whether they bought," but look at "net inflow metrics + holding costs." The US is now a net inflow country, which is a structural positive, not a day-trading rocket. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after listing will be unveiled $BTC Brent crude oil at 110 dollars, surprisingly also suppressing BTC
Today Brent crude touched 110, does this have anything to do with BTC? Yes, and quite a lot. When oil prices soar, US inflation won't come down, making it even harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and it might even raise them by the end of the year. The market now fears the "energy inflation—wage inflation—service inflation" spiral returning. Although BTC is the "anti-inflation narrative," short-term trading is about liquidity, not stories. When liquidity tightens, BTC kneels first. So you see today BTC didn't soar with gold (gold 4180+), instead it hovered around 81700. Real inflation trading is here; funds go first to oil, gold, and short-term bonds, and only then to BTC. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5.12%, the invisible ceiling for BTC
Today, one data point is more important than the BTC candlestick: the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 5.12%. With risk-free returns this high, who’s in a hurry to push stablecoins into altcoins? The same logic applies to BTC—when "earning 5%+ passively" becomes easy, the opportunity cost of holding the zero-coupon asset BTC rises. So 81700 doesn’t look like it’s dropped much, but there are heavy sell orders above: every rebound triggers long-term funds to reduce positions and switch to US Treasuries. In the short term, BTC isn’t unable to rise; it just needs to wait for Treasury yields to fall back or for the US stock market risk premium to reopen. Don’t listen to the "rush to 100k" calls now; first watch if the 10Y yield can retreat below 5%. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH decoupling from the usual playbook today. Stocks got hit hard on AI-bubble fear (CoreWeave debt concerns dragged Nasdaq -2.1%), oil spiked toward $110 on Iran strike headlines, and CPI+PPI both came in hot this week.
Normally that combo wrecks risk assets. Instead BTC +2% to $81.7K, ETH +5%, trading more like gold (+0.6%) than Nasdaq. Still down on the week, but today’s reaction is worth watching flight-to-safety bid or just a bounce?$BTC BTC and the Nasdaq now look like conjoined twins
Stop believing in the “BTC independent market” narrative. Today the Nasdaq dropped -2.14%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell for the eighth consecutive day, and BTC slid from 82940 to 80809. BTC’s beta is now more sensitive to the US tech stock market than to the halving narrative. The logic is simple: US stocks fall → risk appetite drops → deleveraging → BTC gets cut first. At the 81700 level, if Nasdaq futures remain weak on Monday, BTC will struggle to stand alone. Conversely, if Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia stop falling, BTC can then talk about 85k. Those trading BTC now need to watch CME Nasdaq futures, the 10-year US Treasury yield (today 10Y at 5.12%), and the US dollar index; relying solely on candlestick charts will lead to big losses. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC institutions are buying, retail investors are running, this scene is very 2024
Chainalysis released a striking report yesterday: the U.S. will become a net inflow country for Bitcoin for the first time in 2026, with institutions continuously buying and retail investors overall selling. Spot BTC ETF players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley have taken over the "retail investors cutting losses." BTC holding at 81,700 today without crashing is largely supported by ETF/institutional orders. But note: institutional buying doesn't mean an immediate price surge; it's about dollar-cost averaging, allocation, and waiting for macro turning points. Retail investors rush in seeing 81,000 is cheaper than 100,000, but sell when it dips to 80,800, so the chips are just changing hands. It's not "institutions pulling you on board" now, it's "institutions collecting chips while you panic." #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC The most critical news from the Fed today: Walsh doesn't spoil the surprise
Tonight, the crypto community is actually all eyes on the Fed's words. Fed Chair Walsh said in Bangkok: no prediction on the October rate decision, and no advance guidance on the interest rate path for the year. To translate — don't try to trap me with the old Powell-style "forward guidance," I'm keeping my options open. CME FedWatch currently shows an 82%–87% probability of rates staying unchanged on October 27–28, with the chance of a rate hike dropping from 27% to below 15%. For BTC, this is short-term positive: no rate hike = liquidity expectations won't collapse further. But don't get too excited, Walsh didn't say "no rate hike," just "no comment," and the probability of a December hike remains quite high. So BTC holding 81700 today doesn't mean the bull market is back; it just means the "hawks didn't double down." #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 $BTC Why can't BTC rise around 81,000 today?
Looking at the market this morning, BTC futures CFD is at 81,396.5, spot index at 81,662, and the user's 81,700 is basically the real-time pivot. Why can't it rise? First, US stocks crashed on Friday, Nasdaq down -2.14%, AI/semiconductors were hit, funds withdrew from high-risk assets; second, Brent crude surged to 109–110, energy inflation is back, the market starts worrying the Fed will tighten again by year-end; third, BTC's intraday high-low range is just over two thousand dollars, meaning "some are selling, some are buying, but no one is decisive." This kind of market is best for swing traders to earn fees, not for retail investors chasing highs and lows. If 81,700 can't hold and 82,500 is not reached, I'll treat it as a rebound; if it breaks below 80,800, don't believe in a "strong bottom," look down to the 79k area. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Chips with a 170-fold gain over nine years are starting to loosen up
ETH has been stuck at 2444 for two days, neither going up nor down. But there is an on-chain signal more worth watching than the market — a batch of old addresses from 2017 are moving, with a cost basis of $14, now over 2400, a gain of more than 170 times. They held for nine years and have recently started transferring to exchanges.
If it were you, would you run? I’m running anyway. Nine years of profit isn’t sustained by faith, it’s about leaving when it’s time.
Retail investors now think 2400 is cheap because it’s indeed cheaper compared to 2800. But compared to 14? The cost basis of those old addresses is unimaginably low. Transferring to exchanges is not leaving you a souvenir.
There’s not much to say about the market. It bounced from 2322 to 2448 but couldn’t go higher; volume is shrinking day by day, and from 2480 to 2500 above are all positions waiting to break even. The futures market has 43.8 billion in open contracts hanging; once it breaks below 2316, the liquidation pressure on 1 billion long positions below will be obvious.
My short position at 2671 is still in hand, untouched. Shorting near the current price seems reasonable to me. Stop loss above 2500, target first at 2316.
No advice, no calls, you decide for yourselves. Old chips are running, volume is shrinking, and there’s a bunch of trapped positions above — with this structure, a rebound is either your chance to get on board or your chance to get off, you need to be clear in your mind.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ Duge, buying MSTR is even riskier than buying Meme 😂😂🤣 This thing's cash flow is super easy to break; once something goes wrong, it can just issue more shares to let retail investors take the hit 😂😂
…………
$MSTR I definitely dug through its cash flow and financial statements before getting in. If you study its balance sheet carefully, it's extremely safe, with a very low debt ratio. Coupled with the early bull cycle, cash reserves are sufficient. However, you're right, if it needs money, it can issue more shares. Cash flow isn't a problem; it can cover 3 years of interest and convertible bond buybacks. But the shareholder issue means everyone shares the burden. STRC will soon return to 100, financing channels are opening, and the flywheel is about to start again. But I don't want it to increase BTC holdings anymore.
Simply put, MicroStrategy borrowed money, some with interest-first-then-principal, some with principal and interest/no interest due at maturity. It reserved 3 years of money for monthly payments and living expenses, and that 3 years of money is also borrowed.
This is exactly the same play as the off-exchange leverage I did in 2017, borrowing to pay off loans. The only difference is MicroStrategy uses stock as credit, while I used personal credit. Both methods are legal.Let's talk about the capital flow first: Who is under pressure among BTC, ETH, and SOL?
Don't just focus on the candlestick charts; capital flow is more honest. In the past 24 hours, $BTC spot net outflow was about $331 million, and contract net outflow was about $659 million; although there was some short-term inflow, the selling pressure has not truly eased.
$ETH looks more like a "weak recovery." The 4-hour contract net inflow was about $123 million, but looking at 24 hours, contract net outflow was about $1.018 billion, and spot also saw an outflow of about $421 million. Whether the short-term rebound can hold still needs confirmation.
$SOL is relatively resistant to decline. In 24 hours, spot net inflow was about $9.8363 million, while contract net outflow was about $7.7293 million. Spot buying is a positive signal, but since contracts did not follow, it cannot be directly equated to confirmation of a rise.
Comparing the three, SOL's spot capital performance is more outstanding; BTC and ETH still need to be watched to see if selling pressure can ease. Moving forward, rather than guessing the bottom, it's better to closely monitor whether spot capital continues to flow back. Will SOL's capital advantage continue, or will it ultimately depend on BTC's performance? Which one do you favor more?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ 1. AI server DRAM demand explosion, industry volume and price both rising
The DRAM capacity per AI server is far higher than that of traditional servers, and the global server DRAM share continues to rise. Changxin's G5 fifth-generation DRAM process is in mass production, with a 4F² high-density DDR5 RDIMM to be launched by the end of the year. The product enters the computing power storage track, and the product structure continues to upgrade. The expected net profit for the first three quarters exceeds 130 billion, with strong performance realization; the chairman proposes a 1 to 2 billion buyback, with very few shares in circulation, making the buyback an obvious chip bottoming effect.
2. Long-term growth mainline of domestic substitution + market share increase
Currently, the global DRAM market is monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Changxin is the only domestic and the fourth largest global DRAM manufacturer. By 2026, its global bit share is about 11%. Institutions predict production capacity will expand to 500,000 wafers/month by 2028, with market share continuously rising, possessing the potential to reshape the global storage landscape. The domestic supply chain security brings long-term premium.
3. Technological breakthroughs open up cost reduction space
The G5 process improves wafer bare chip output by 50%, and the 4F² architecture further compresses the storage unit area, continuously reducing the manufacturing cost per bit. Future competitiveness will be enhanced in server and mobile LPDDR6 products.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus OKEx withdrawals are not just about C2C. I've tried all 4 methods, so I'll tell you some blunt truths.
Many people ask "How to convert U to RMB?" but they're asking the wrong question. What you really need to understand first are two things: where the money comes from and which card it goes into. The method is just a tool; these two questions determine whether you'll get into trouble.
① C2C/P2P — the most convenient but also the most prone to failure
Small amounts are okay, but the core reason for frozen cards isn't "how much you sold," it's the source of the other party's money. If the payer's name doesn't match the buyer's, the transaction is instantly canceled. My approach: only small amounts, dedicated cards, and certified merchants with all four indicators green.
② OTC — exclusive for large amounts, but "years of experience" doesn't mean no checks
The larger the amount, the more you need to verify qualifications and source of funds. Contracts, chat records, real-name verification of the other party — don't miss any of these. When things go wrong, these are all your proof of innocence.
③ USDT→USD→Hong Kong card withdrawal — the most compliant and also the "heaviest"
Using bank SWIFT, stable arrival, clean chain. For large amounts, I mainly use this route. But let's be clear about the threshold: not everyone has a Hong Kong card; opening an account requires either going to Hong Kong or a witness for account opening, and the review is getting stricter. Compliance has costs, and this cost is the price of "clean".
④ Transactions with acquaintances — smoothest communication but also the most familiar pitfalls
"Knowing someone" and "knowing the source of every penny they have" are two different things. Money received from acquaintances could still be dirty money from their upstream. Control volume and frequency; don't skip the process just because it's "your own people."
My ranking: small amounts → C2C (with strict discipline); large amounts → compliant Hong Kong card channel; OTC and acquaintances → only for emergencies.
Honestly: when it comes to withdrawals, the easy routes are all working for risk. The method you find "convenient" is often the cost you haven't seen.
Which route do you mainly use? Share the pitfalls you've encountered in the comments.Recently there's an interesting divergence: crude oil has been strengthening steadily due to tensions in the Middle East, while the crypto market just went through a big drop and is now slowly healing. Can BTC hold up this rebound? Let's break it down.
First, crude oil. Transport risks around the Strait of Hormuz are rising, plus US crude inventories dropped by 8.6 million barrels last week, tightening supply suddenly and naturally supporting oil prices. But on the flip side, prices driven up by geopolitical conflict include a lot of emotional premium. Once the situation eases, that premium could quickly unwind, so chasing oil highs carries risks too.
Now BTC. After breaking below 80,000 a couple of days ago, it was pulled back by buyers, showing there are indeed people willing to buy at this level. But don’t get too excited yet—CPI and PPI have both exceeded expectations, and the inflation gray rhino is still looming. The Fed’s policy stance can shake the entire risk asset market at any time. Around 80,000 is a battleground for bulls and bears, and 83,000 is the hurdle for the rebound. Until there’s a volume-backed breakout, anyone claiming a reversal is just fooling themselves.
ETH is even weaker than BTC. 2,400 is a key level—holding it keeps the hope alive; 2,500 is the dividing line between strength and weakness. Plus, ETH spot ETFs have been seeing outflows recently, so whether the rebound has staying power remains to be seen over the next few days.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Don't be fooled by the rebound's appearance; the funding side shows signs of fatigue:
$BTC 24h spot +120 million / contracts +98 million, but 1h spot -52 million / contracts -250 million, selling pressure is coming.
$ETH 24h contracts +380 million, spot -110 million, no spot support = lack of foundation.
$SNDK 1h bilateral outflow, softening at 4h.
My SOXS 25x long (46.52→49.08, +137%) — high leverage demands no greed; a 4% spike down at 25x causes liquidation, already pushed to breakeven. Don't chase the rebound high, watch for 1h selling pressure to contract, take profits while you can #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 Hash Ribbons used to be one of Bitcoin’s most reliable capitulation signals.
But with miners increasingly pivoting towards AI this year, declining hashrate no longer tells quite the same story.In the past two days, there has been a noticeable increase in people talking about Paola on X Layer. The community mainly has two reasons:
1. From October 19 to 26, X Layer is holding a "Community Certified Token" trading competition with a prize pool of $50,000.
2. The community says its trading pair is a tokenized stock related to Pop Mart.
For the first point, I checked the official announcement. The original text states: The list of participating tokens will only be announced when the event goes live on October 19; tokens that have participated in previous trading competitions cannot participate again.
So "only Paola qualifies" is still community speculation; the official statement does not say this. The announcement also mentions that the community certification label is only a reference and does not represent a recommendation.
There is another detail that beginners might want to note.
Last night at 20:48, Wang Duanniao posted that he is optimistic about Paola (he also mentioned he holds it and is currently underwater). Looking back at the K-line, the buying volume started to increase 1-2 hours before his post.
I'm not saying who is right or wrong. Just a reminder: when you see a KOL's post, you are usually not among the earliest buyers.
I will wait for the official list on the 19th before deciding whether to participate. This does not constitute investment advice.
$SOL One hour after the US stock market opened, BTC, ETH, and SOL all pulled back, but what I'm watching isn't the price, it's another data point.
$BTC current price 82358, up 1.47%. $ETH 2475, up 4.34%, $SOL 106.3, up 3.12%. It looks lively, but open interest is decreasing. BTC dropped from 2.58 billion to 2.45 billion, the long-short ratio fell from 1.88 to 1.76, ETH's long-short ratio dropped from 2.73 to 1.85. SOL went down from 2.72 to 2.31.
Putting these three data points together, the meaning is straightforward: leverage is retreating, not new money coming in. The price is pushed up by short covering, not active buying. After the US stock market opened, tech stocks didn't crash, giving crypto a breather, but this is a correction, not a reversal.
BTC faces heavy resistance between 83000-84000, ETH has trapped positions at 2500, and SOL's hurdle is 110. If these three levels aren't broken, the rebound is for reducing positions, not adding to them.
I still haven't opened any trades today; I don't chase this kind of corrective rally. Tomorrow I'll wait for the US market close to see ETF fund flows before deciding what to do.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 I see SpaceX's numbers as solid, due to the growth of Starlink subscribers and the boost from the AI segment. However, caution is needed with the earnings report, since even though revenues continue accelerating thanks to Starlink, the high level of Capex in Starship could pressure the final net margin.
What do you all think? I'll read your comments.
#SpaceXQ3Earnings CZ expressed support on X for any blockchain to make progress in any country. The day before, he praised Solana for setting up an office in Shanghai and advertising throughout the city. There are two versions regarding the postponement of the $SOL Shanghai event: the foundation said registrations surged fourfold overnight, exceeding the approved participant limit; attendees said there were police outside the venue. These two accounts have not been cross-verified. Last October, a similar event in Shenzhen was also cleared by police; having issues two years in a row is hard to attribute solely to logistics. An overlooked aspect is that the surge in registrations indicates a real demand from Chinese-speaking developers; what is restricted is offline gatherings, while on-chain usage remains unaffected. I judge that Solana will not hold any more public offline events in mainland China in the short term, shifting focus to online and Hong Kong; if a new Shanghai date is announced within a month and the event is successfully held, this judgment will be void. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice.