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BTC current price is 83972, with dense liquidations above 85358 and a large liquidation wave buried below 82273. RSI is close to overbought, MACD histogram is narrowing, indicating short-term pullback pressure. The macro environment is tough; the Federal Reserve has kept rates at 4% for digestion, geopolitical tensions remain tight around Iran, the US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the highest since 2007, draining non-interest-bearing assets. ETF inflows reached 2.4 billion USD in one week, institutions are still buying, but risk appetite is suppressed, with bulls and bears in a stalemate.
Just finished night patrol check-in, flashlight placed on the table.
In terms of operations, do not chase longs. Short in batches on rebounds to the 84800-85300 range, stop loss above 85800, first take profit at 83200, second target near the 82300 liquidation zone. If it directly drops to 82273-82500 and shows a stop-fall signal, you can go long, with a stop loss at 81800 and targets between 84000 and 84800. Control position size well, avoid heavy positions.
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
@OKX星球 BTC hits resistance at 83.4K, $ETH hovers around 2.65K: The final shakeout before a rebound?
$BTC is stuck at 83.4K, ETH holds at 2.65K. On the surface, it looks like short-term weakness, but the capital flow tells a different story.
In the past week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.98 billion, attracting funds for 7 consecutive days; ETH ETF had a weekly net inflow of $690 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone accounting for $326 million. Insti$BTC #USTreasuryYieldHigh #US Considers Restricting Diesel Exports, UK Seeks Exemption
The leader has something to say
The US is seriously considering restricting diesel exports to lower domestic fuel prices. The UK is anxious, relying on the US for one-third of its diesel, with only 42 days of inventory left and retail prices at historic highs, currently seeking an exemption.
This move goes against common sense. US diesel exports just hit a near 2 million barrels per week record in August, and over 60% of the EU's diesel imports depend on the US. Restricting exports may lower US diesel prices in the short term, but as inventories build up, refinery operations will be affected, and supplies of other refined products will also decrease. With global energy supply tight, overseas diesel prices will be pushed higher, shifting inflationary pressure to Europe.
On the market, CL fell 2.23%, BZ fell 2.09%, and USO fell 1.81%. Oil prices are under pressure, inflation expectations may ease briefly, but this is a temporary fix.
I have already closed my long BTC position at 84,000, locking in a profit of 1,200 points, currently holding no position. This week's PCE and non-farm payroll data are key; I won't take a directional bet before the data. I will consider lightly buying again if it stabilizes near 82,000.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
No chasing highs or panic selling, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.$SOON no matter how it rises or falls during the day, it always closes at night with a small green gain of one or two points. Single-machine coins are just single-machine coins.Tomorrow night at 20:30, the US August core PCE month-on-month will be announced, expected at 0.3%, previous value 0.2%. The current BTC price is 83,907, positioned in the middle of the 82,500–85,100 range.
Three possible outcomes:
≤0.2% (cooler): Inflation cooling → US bonds/dollar retreat → BTC positive, first target 85,100, if stable then look to previous high at 87,245.
=0.3% (as expected): Market has partially priced this in, data itself has limited stimulus, likely to continue oscillating between 82,500–85,100, waiting for the October 2nd non-farm payrolls to set direction.
≥0.4% (hotter): Rate hike expectations rise → dollar strengthens → BTC under pressure, first break 82,500, if broken look to 81,000 or even 80,000.
Current 83,907 position is awkward: resistance near 85,100 above, more room at 82,500 below, not recommended to heavily position before data. Wait for 30-minute candlestick confirmation after data to follow, don’t chase the second hand.
In short: PCE is the switch that decides whether BTC heads to 87k first or 80k first, but the 0.3% expectation is not outrageous, the real main event is Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Light positions and watch, wait for confirmation. Got back in $LDO
The breakout on 9.26 was actually very nice
With both price and volume
And before the breakout, there was a perfect inverted head and shoulders pattern
But after the breakout
For some reason, there was no follow-through
It dropped again
Now it's back up
Corresponding to the potential breakout of BTC and ETH $BTC #PCEAndPayrollsWeek Green hair position "long green hair"! Just praised you
$ETH You opened 65 ETH at an entry price of 2722, now it has dropped to 2712. Although it only fell less than 10 dollars, with 100x leverage you directly lost 620U, margin return rate -35%. Fortunately, this is cross margin, with a maintenance margin rate as high as 1585%, indicating that liquidation is still far away and it's temporarily very safe.
$BTC You hold nearly 3 BTC, with an average entry price of 84120, now at 83846, down more than 270 dollars. Similarly, due to 100x leverage, the unrealized loss is 816U, margin return rate -32.5%. The maintenance margin rate is as high as ETH's, with no risk of forced liquidation.
100x leverage is very thrilling; a 1% price move against you causes liquidation. Now the two positions back each other up; although there's no liquidation risk, if it drops another few tenths, your margin will be halved.$TRX (Tron)
TRX today is like a disciplined worker in the crypto circle, showing a relatively stubborn trend and decent resistance to declines. While many mainstream coins jump up and down, it firmly holds its ground, rarely experiencing drastic swings.
Thanks to the demand for stablecoin transfers, it consistently maintains a basic level of traffic, so even during market panic, it can occasionally perform relatively resiliently. However, its downside is also clear: it's not easy to expect a violent surge. Today it fluctuated slightly back and forth, with small bullish and bearish candles alternating, not prone to big ups and downs.
Sun's various updates occasionally bring short-term emotional pulses to it, but the price rises triggered by news often come quickly and fade just as fast, rarely turning into long-term upward momentum. Many traders who prefer stability choose it, but don't expect it to double overnight. Trading TRX doesn't require constantly watching for sudden spikes intraday; the focus should be on monitoring systemic risks in the broader market. Even though it resists declines, if the overall market undergoes a deep correction, it will struggle to remain unaffected and still needs proper risk management.$0G has changed the overall trend, right? It's been pulling all day.
Look at this 0.37 level, it's a barrier.
Can't get above it for now, so with a shake of my hand, I decisively opened a short.
Entry price 0.3555, full position with 20x leverage.
It rose from the bottom at 0.24, increased so much.
It should go down now, I estimate it will.
Tonight's Screw fans are counting on this trade.
At first, I wanted to short $ZEC.
But looking at the candlesticks, it seems like a rebound is coming.
Every candle and volume is very strong.
If it doesn't break through the 1500 level,
I will consider looking for an opportunity to short.
Right now, it's really not suitable to short.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $DOGE (Dogecoin)
DOGE is known in the crypto community as the funny, mood-driven player whose market moves are entirely sentiment-driven. When there’s no trending meme or hype to boost it, it just lies flat on the ground, looking completely lifeless.
As soon as some related hot news appears online, it instantly bounces up on the spot; once the hype fades, it quickly droops back down. Today, with no topics to support it and no big money stirring things up, it can only wobble slightly back and forth. Retail investors always love Dogecoin; they rush in crazily at the slightest price increase, only to get stuck collectively when the hype dies down.
At its core, it’s an emotional coin without much solid fundamental backing; its rise and fall depend entirely on whether people want to join the fun. Never treat it as a stable investment. If you want to play with DOGE, you must understand its nature: it’s very fun when it’s wild, but very painful when it cools off. Without positive catalysts now, it will likely continue to grind. Don’t bet heavily hoping to get rich overnight; keeping a light, entertainment mindset will be much more comfortable Trump is about to sign an AI executive order, but the crypto community shouldn't get excited just yet
Trump said he will sign an executive order on artificial intelligence.
The original phrase only contains the three words "strong" and "powerful".
The rule in the original text is:
An executive order is not a law; it is a directive from the president to federal agencies.
It governs how U.S. government departments operate.
Common misunderstanding:
An executive order on AI does not mean regulation of crypto.
These are two separate issues in Washington.
The previous executive order was revised several times.
When a new president takes office, the direction can be reversed.
This time, the text hasn't even been released yet.
What really needs attention is whether it mentions computing power exports.
That clause would affect mining farms and chips.
#Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #AMD拟斥资82亿美元收购AI公司 $HYPE Why do you always go long at resistance levels and short at support levels?
Because you have it backwards. Resistance is where you sell, support is where you buy.
BTC is currently at 83944, with resistance at 84000 above and support at 83533 below. The correct approach is to go long near support and short near resistance, not the other way around.
I previously lost 200,000U because I chased highs and sold lows, going long at 84000 and getting stuck. Now I've learned my lesson, with a small 5000U position trying long near 83600, stop loss at 83400, target 84400.
Never hold a position without a stop loss; recovering from a 200,000U loss.
Remember: buy at support, sell at resistance—this is basic trading knowledge. $BTC #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Guys, seeing the MK4 trade, it’s hard not to feel a bit envious. A long position of 5.84 million NEAR tokens, a $29.21 million position size, with an unrealized profit of $15.45 million — definitely a huge win.
But after the envy, stay clear-headed. Unrealized profit isn’t real profit; it’s just numbers until the position is closed. He can hold because his capital size, cost basis, and risk tolerance are on a completely different level from ours. You only see his heavy position but not that even if he takes a few million in drawdown, it won’t affect his lifestyle.
More importantly, all on-chain positions are transparent. The whale’s position size, cost, and liquidation price are all visible to both market makers and hunters. Bulls at this scale are a flag when prices rise and a target when prices fall. Once the market turns, the stampede happens faster than anyone else.
So don’t blindly follow whales just because they’re whales. They have the capital to endure; you only have living expenses. Just observe, learn from their patience and directional judgment, but don’t copy their position size. Maintaining your own pace is more important than envying others. Whether NEAR can continue to rise, let the market decide. The macro environment is still suppressing; Bitcoin is around 83,000. Until PCE and non-farm payroll data settle, don’t bet heavily on direction. Save your bullets and stay steady. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Gold dropped nearly 4% last night. Can we confidently chase after a slight rise in BTC today?
To be honest, I'm not that confident. Last night, the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Even interest-free assets like gold are under pressure, so it's hard for the crypto market to be completely unaffected. Of course, this doesn't mean that if gold falls, BTC must also fall.
Tonight, OKX BTC perpetual futures surged to around 84545, then retreated back to 83880. The gains remain, but after the US stock market opened, this pullback came with noticeably higher volume than during the previous sideways movement, so we can't ignore it.
Calling it a "bull trap" now is a bit premature, and saying the market has turned strong outright feels rushed to me.
I'll first watch if it can reclaim around 84500 and hold it. If the rebound can't reach the recent high, then this rally isn't strong enough yet to chase blindly.
The daily gain is negative, but the post-open trend is downward. It's best to consider these two scenarios together tonight.
$BTC $XAU #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #US-Iran negotiations continue, nuclear issues and sanctions become new focal points
I feel this round of US-Iran negotiations has reached a very critical point. On the surface, they are discussing a ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz, but the real sticking points for both sides remain the nuclear issue and sanctions.
The latest round is still conducted indirectly through intermediaries like Qatar. Iran wants sanctions lifted, frozen funds released, and to push for the end of the blockade and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the US, however, puts the nuclear issue first, and without substantial nuclear concessions, it’s hard to move forward.
The most interesting part now is sanctions.
Some US officials have hinted that as long as Iran makes concrete progress on the nuclear issue, Trump is willing to discuss sanction relief and frozen funds; but Trump later publicly denied offering these conditions to Iran. This shows that the two sides are not completely at an impasse, but they haven’t agreed on who should make the first concession.
So going forward, two things need to be watched:
First, whether Iran is willing to make clearer commitments on the nuclear issue;
Second, whether the US is willing to truly include partial sanction relief in the agreement.
If these two start exchanging conditions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will really have a chance, and the risk premium on oil prices could quickly drop.
But if they continue talking past each other, $BTC, gold $XAU, and crude oil $BZ will still have to ride the roller coaster with Middle East news in the short term.
It’s not that there’s no room for negotiation now,
The key still depends on which way Trump’s crude oil orders go 😆.A user deposited about 50 BTC into Solv Protocol's BTC+, intending only to earn about 3% annualized yield. After the security incident in July, his address was individually restricted from redemption. Following the project's request to provide proof of fund sources, transaction records, and control rights, he sent around 60 emails back and forth, yet after two months, he still couldn't retrieve his principal.
This incident exposes at least three issues:
1. They claim to be decentralized DeFi, but freezing a single account is even more efficient than a bank. Risk control audits can easily become an excuse to seize assets.
2. The user entered through a recommendation seen on Binance Web3 wallet's finance page. Should a major platform bear some responsibility when the project runs into trouble after directing traffic?
3. The 3% interest and 100% principal risk are completely disproportionate. The user focuses on that small yield, while the project holds all the principal.
The so-called CeDeFi risk control ultimately becomes a "deposit-only, no withdrawal" policy. Before putting large amounts of BTC into any Yield protocol, first confirm one thing: whether the private keys are still in your own hands. If not, that 3% yield could at any time turn into a 100% cost.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BNB
BNB is more like the store manager guarding their own shop; while the outside market is chaotic and turbulent, it tries to stabilize its own territory without running wild. When the overall market jumps up and down, it doesn't join the frenzy with others, but when there is a big drop, its resilience is quite decent.
Today, it tried several times to tiptoe upwards to break through, but once it hit the heavily stacked sell orders above, it was immediately pushed back to its original position. The platform occasionally runs various promotions to attract attention, but due to the overall market sentiment being low, the positive effects are always fleeting and hard to convert into sustained upward momentum.
Its fate is deeply tied to the overall trading activity in the crypto space; if everyone loses interest in trading, it won't have many chances to perform. Today, the overall situation is lukewarm and sluggish, unable to rise strongly or fall sharply. Don't expect it to suddenly have a violent big move. Trading it requires a calm mindset, watching support and resistance levels carefully, avoiding frequent trades in a choppy market, and controlling your actions to prevent mental breakdown from constant wear and tear.The European Central Bank has opened a new round of digital euro innovation platform solicitation, targeting fintech companies, payment service providers, and public institutions. The project trial period is set for January to June 2027, focusing on building prototype solutions such as electronic receipts, conditional payments, and multi-party transactions, while also exploring application scenarios like AI agent payments, micropayments, and machine-to-machine automatic trading. The project application deadline is November 9.
Meanwhile, 36 institutions including Revolut, Stripe, and Deutsche Bank have already started a 12-month pilot, expected to advance implementation in the second half of 2027. However, whether the digital euro can be officially issued still requires EU legislative approval and the final decision of the ECB, so it will not be launched in the short term.
Key focus: This trial primarily explores AI automatic payment delegation and device autonomous settlement, which are technical scenario tests for central bank digital currency and do not equate to a positive signal for various stablecoins. Avoid short-term speculation on EUR-related crypto tokens.
Such central bank projects progress on a yearly cycle, while market fluctuations are measured in hours. The policy implementation cycle and short-term token price trends are completely out of sync, making it difficult to directly trigger short-term market surges. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
Gold plunged more than 3% in a single day, while US Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007.📉
The logic behind this is straightforward: with a 5% risk-free return available, gold yields nothing, so capital naturally flows to US Treasuries. Previously, gold surged on safe-haven demand and de-dollarization, but now with easing tensions in the Middle East and reduced US-China tariffs, the safe-haven premium has faded, causing gold to fall faster than anything else.
Can the crypto market catch this wave of funds? Don’t be naive.
BTC now follows tech stocks and has long decoupled from gold. The market is still stuck around 83,000, panic from the Bitget hack hasn’t dissipated, and there’s no new capital entering from outside.
Don’t blindly guess the bottom in trading. Hold your spot positions firmly, control your contract trades, as the spikes are extremely aggressive. Keep your USDT ready and wait for this macro sentiment to clear before making moves. Don’t catch a falling knife.🛡️
With this sharp drop in gold, where do you think the bottom is?👇
$XAU Originally, the short position on $BTC had already dropped to around $82,800, which was a perfect opportunity to take profits, but still, the thought of waiting a bit longer and squeezing out a little more space prevailed, and in the end, the profits were gradually given back. The most painful thing is not the market itself, but that despite having the chance, one failed to stick to discipline. 📈 BTC's rebound this time is indeed strong. BTC quickly pulled back from the low to above $85,000, with a rebound strength clearly exceeding expectations. Earlier, it looked like a normal correction, but the adjustment was not deep, and funds quickly re-entered. The bears initially felt comfortable, but the market quickly threw the pressure back. Now the question arises: Is this a technical rebound or the start of a new upward move? It's really hard to draw a conclusion in the short term. If BTC can stabilize again between $85,500 and $86,000, market sentiment may continue to improve; but if it rises and then falls back below $84,000, caution is needed as this rally might just be a short-term repair. 🔵 ETH is also starting to pressure the bears. $ETH has returned to around $2,730, and compared to the previous decline, this rebound is clearly stronger. In the short term, watch if $2,700 can hold, with attention on the $2,760–$2,800 range above; if it falls below $2,650 again, be wary of re-entering a volatile pullback. 📰 Market news is also heating up. Recently, market focus remains on US macro data and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, coming up next 1/ The conclusion from the last issue is: NYSE and Nasdaq will not disappear, but the "matching + clearing + custody + access" bundled service is being dismantled. So the question arises: what exactly will the new "exchange" look like after being dismantled? The answer is not a single company, but a three-way battle and a new emerging species. 2/ Three camps racing toward the same finish line Three camps have already formed in the industry: crypto-native exchanges, brokerages holding existing stock users, and traditional market infrastructure companies with deep experience. Crypto-native: Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, Hyperliquid Brokerages: Robinhood Traditional infrastructure: Nasdaq, NYSE/ICE, DTCC The key point is that these three camps have begun cross-shareholding and leveraging each other, rather than just competing head-on. 3/ The most obvious cross-shareholding: Nasdaq invests in Kraken In September, Nasdaq Ventures announced a $100 million investment in Kraken's parent company Payward to deepen cooperation on tokenized stock infrastructure. At the same time, Payward plans to bring compliant U.S. perpetual contracts to Hyperliquid through its CFTC-regulated Bitnomial subsidiary. On one side, traditional exchanges provide funding; on the other, licensed exchanges use Hyperliquid for distribution. The question of "who is the new exchange" is being answered through capital-level cross-ownership.#PCT V28: SOMETHING JUST "LEAKED" 👀
Yesterday it wasn't clear yet, but today Testnet1 V28 has revealed a very notable trace:
🔥 "liquidity_pool_trade"
🔥 "constant_product"
🔥 Fee 0.30%
🔥 A transaction passing through 3 liquidity pools consecutively
Actual route:
Pi → GR → KAP → IRRA
Most notably, the Pi/GR pool has 2,110 trustlines and a very large reserve.
👉 This is on-chain evidence showing the AMM/Liquidity Pool mechanism is being implemented on Testnet1 V28 $PI $NEAR Looking at this news and the market, this is a typical top signal, the bears are about to arrive.
The logic is simple: Whale MK4 holds 5.84 million NEAR long positions with an unrealized profit of 15.47 million, a position close to 30 million, and at the same time Bitwise's NEAR spot ETF has officially launched.
What is this called? The positive news is fully realized, the whale is openly showing strength.
When the market maker reveals their bottom cards, it's definitely not to make retail investors rich, but to sell off.
Such a heavy profit position, once dumped to realize gains, will cause a stampede.
Looking at the market, NEAR has fallen from 5.58 all the way down, now it has rebounded to 5.01, but the volume clearly can't keep up, purely an oversold bull trap.
The dense resistance zone is between 5.1 and 5.2 above; as long as it rallies and stalls, it's an excellent shorting point.
My trend-following short plan:
First, entry point. Wait for it to rebound and test the 5.1 to 5.2 range, if it stalls, decisively open a short.
Second, stop loss. Set above 5.3; if volume breaks through the previous high, stop loss unconditionally and exit.
Third, take profit target. The first target is 4.5; if it breaks below, look at 4.0 or even the previous low.
Fourth, never go heavy; build positions in batches and use position management as a safety net. $BTC — As expected, BTC pushed lower to flush leverage. Now be careful of a potential double-sided shakeout as the monthly candle transitions. Yesterday’s view was that BTC could first break below $83,000 and trigger leverage liquidations across altcoins. That scenario has now played out. My broader view remains unchanged: BTC is still in a high-level consolidation phase, while the monthly candle transition can bring additional volatility and sharp moves in both directions. For overall market seThis wave of AVAX's rise is not simply a follow-up to BTC, but a combination of institutional narratives + network upgrades + RWA implementation, with the market pricing in advance.
Starting from around $7.5 in mid-September, it surged to over $11 within a week, reaching a nearly 8-month high, then oscillated between $10–12. Today (September 29), there was another rebound close to 10%–12%, with the current price around $11.7.
Main catalysts (Avalanche is the network, AVAX is the native coin of this network):
1. Helicon upgrade (launched on September 22, tightly linked with AVAX)
The staking unlock period was shortened from 14 days to 48 hours. The market front-ran this, showing clear price elasticity before and after the upgrade.
2. Wall Street tokenization narrative (the most important growth potential)
Paxos, Aave RWA lending, Janus Henderson becoming validators, and other supporting implementations.
Avalanche also stands out in tokenized stock inflows, with inflows in the past week exceeding the total of other chains. Institutions regard Avalanche as a "compliant, customizable L1 + high throughput" settlement layer, a narrative stronger than just DeFi hype. Brothers, don't be fooled by the illusions in front of you!
Don't blindly get optimistic just because you see a deep V-shaped rebound, thinking it's a signal of reversal or bottom-fishing.
You need to clearly realize that, in essence, it is still an altcoin.
What is the underlying logic of altcoins?
Simply put, once they encounter a crash, especially after the whales have finished unloading, the price will only show a one-way downward trend.
Don't be fooled by the strong momentum of this rebound; its weak gene has never changed.
Whether from the macro environment or the candlestick pattern, nothing can reverse its fate as an altcoin!
Look at the just-released negative news, blatantly stating "$ZEC market decline: affected by large whale sell-offs and NFT ecosystem failure."
Weak technicals, poor ecosystem development, and fundamentally a complete mess—what reason do you have to believe it can truly reverse?
Look at the candlestick chart: it plunged from 1663 all the way down to 1355, a drop of 300 dollars. Now it just bounced back to 1420, and some are already shouting that the bull market is back?
This is clearly the whales inducing a pump, giving those who haven't exited one last chance to escape!
On the macro level, non-farm payroll and PCE data are about to be released intensively, with the probability of a rate hike in October approaching 70%, and liquidity continues to tighten.
The retail trader long-short ratio is still extremely crowded; most people are still dreaming of getting rich quickly, while smart big money has quietly sold off during the rebound.
I entered a short position at 1611, and the current floating profit has exceeded 120%.
I don't need to shout slogans; I only firmly believe one thing: the ultimate destiny of altcoins is to go to zero.
Every rebound now is just feeding more chips to the shorts. FIL Previously, I judged it would surge to 1.2 and then pull back to around 1.05, but currently it seems like Ethereum and Bitcoin have had a large pullback, so for now I’m only holding one-third of my spot position. If it drops further, I’ll just buy more to make up for it. Still need to be cautious about this pullback in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Try to avoid contracts; just buy spot if it drops. The first support is at 0.9, the second at 0.77. Just buy spot $BTC #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh The traditional "full-scale altcoin season" is unlikely to return, but a structural altcoin market is brewing and may arrive in a completely new form. ------ 1. The traditional "alt season" logic has lost its effect. The classic rhythm of the crypto market was: Bitcoin rises first → Ethereum follows the rally→ funds rotate to small- and mid-cap altcoins → full altcoin season. But this logic has been completely broken by 2026. Current core data are as follows: • Altcoin season index is only 49 (June 2026), while traditional altcoin seasons need to reach above 75 to be considered to start • BTC's market cap accounts for about 58%, far below the 50% threshold • Altcoin spot market has been net selling for 15 consecutive months, totaling $266 billion, with funds continuously flowing out rather than inflowing • BTC-priced altcoin trading volume has collapsed to its lowest level since 2021, with extremely low activity • Total altcoin market cap is about $923 billion (excluding BTC/ETH), with overall scale shrinking CryptoQuant clearly pointed out in June 2026 that capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins has basically disappeared. Altcoin investment is shifting from β returns (following the market rally) to α returns (making money through coin selection skills). ------ 2. The altcoin season will not "fully return," but structural opportunities have already emerged. Although a widespread rally during the altcoin season is unlikely to be repeated, several leading indicators are approaching trigger levels: • BTC's market share is currently 52.3%, steadily retreating toward the 50% mark; if it falls,#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
The US Treasury yields have exploded again, really not giving us a moment's peace all day.
The 10-year Treasury yield shot up to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year also surged to 5.55%. Gold crashed, dropping over 3%, at one point down 4% intraday, and silver fell nearly 5%. Why such a sharp move? Oil prices are still rising, inflation concerns are back, and the probability of a rate hike in October has hit 70%. The dollar is strengthening, and both the US stock market and BTC are retreating.
So what does this mean for the crypto space? Let me break it down in two layers.
First, money is more expensive, and all risk assets are getting hit. With risk-free yields above 5%, why would institutions take risks in crypto? BTC is falling along with this logic. Even gold, a non-yielding asset, can't hold up, so BTC will struggle to stand alone in the short term.
Second, the market is already pricing in expectations of high interest rates. PCE and non-farm payroll data haven't been released yet, but funds are already pulling out. When the data actually comes out, if inflation remains stubborn, BTC will likely take another hit in the short term.
Here's my take.
Don't rush to bottom-fish just because gold has dropped. The market is trading on high interest rate expectations, and non-yielding assets are being sold off. BTC is no different; don't be quick to catch a falling knife. Wait for the PCE and non-farm data to land and the direction to become clear before making a move. At this point, controlling your impulses is more important than anything.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH Morning Session Notes: Taking Profits While Defusing Risks
At the open, the account looks like two lines: one going up, the other pulling down.
Last night, the 20x full-position short orders on $ZEC and $SUI hit a pullback; $ZEC's unrealized profit once surged over 143%, and $SUI also had a profit buffer. Going short against the trend and profiting here relies on timely realization, not greed.
But the $DOGE short is still holding. At 20x full position, unrealized $BTC #TokenizedStocksOnAave I used to be afraid of one thing: going all-in on BTC and missing out on altcoins, or going all-in on ETH and fearing the pullback.
Back then, I was young and always conflicted about whether to buy Bitcoin $BTC or Ethereum $ETH. For a while, I thought Bitcoin was too slow, so I switched my entire position to ETH to stake on meme coins. Then a big correction hit, and ETH's drop wiped out my principal! Later, I got scared and switched everything back to BTC, only to watch the Ethereum ecosystem explode and its price surge far ahead, leaving me as a frustrated bystander!
After being beaten back and forth between these two extremes, I finally understood Wall Street institutions' logic for building positions: the core is always allocation, not an either-or choice! $BTC is the "digital gold" used to hedge macro risks and provide a safety net, while ETH is the "digital tech stock" with high elasticity to capture the prosperity of on-chain ecosystems!
Later, I forced myself to strictly follow an 80% Bitcoin + 20% Ethereum base allocation. When the market dips, I can hold on; when the ecosystem booms, I’m not missing out. I no longer regret missing out, nor am I too hurt by pullbacks damaging my principal. My trading has become mature and rational. I hope that one day I can truly become a genius trader!$BTC pulled back near $84,000, smart money remains bullish but is reducing positions.
According to the current OKX spot market, $BTC is quoted at $83,944, up 0.44% in 24 hours, with the 1-hour EMA20 at $83,782 and RSI around 53.
Perpetual positions are about $2.352 billion, down approximately $60 million in the past 23 hours, with funding rates close to zero. Price is rising while positions are decreasing, indicating the rebound is not heavily reliant on new leverage, but contract funding is also not aggressively chasing prices.
Among smart money, 26 are long and 10 are short, with longs accounting for 90.2% by amount; total positions decreased by about $2.82 million compared to 24 hours ago. The direction is bullish, but invested capital is declining.
BTC ETF net inflow today is about $42.99 million, providing spot support; BIT-associated wallets deposited 1,000 BTC to Binance, increasing potential short-term supply.
Long positions wait for a 1-hour close above $84,450, then re-enter if the pullback holds above that level, stop loss at $83,850, target $85,650.
If the 1-hour close is below $83,750 and the rebound fails to recover, short can be tried with stop loss at $84,350, target $82,550. Reduce leverage before the Core PCE release.TMD, no more nonsense, here’s the direction straight up: short HYPE with the trend.
The U.S. House Oversight Committee is investigating insider trading, this knife is stabbed right into the main artery.
Regulatory bombs are hanging overhead, big money and institutions definitely won’t dare to push the price against the wind at this critical moment, major players will surely hedge and withdraw funds.
Once liquidity dries up, this bull market HYPE is doomed to lag behind, a catch-up drop is the only script.
My short sniper plan is already written.
First, never chase shorts, wait for a volume-less rebound or a pullback testing the upper resistance (like near the previous high) with stagnation, then decisively open a short.
Second, control position size, try small positions for trial and error, never heavy positions, to prevent it from making a desperate explosive short squeeze.
Third, clear stop loss: once volume breaks through the key previous high, it means the big players ignore regulation and forcibly push the price up, immediately stop loss unconditionally and exit.
Fourth, take profit target: once it breaks below the recent consolidation support platform or during a market pullback, it will definitely fall faster than anyone else, take profit in batches and lock in gains.
Others look for value in articles, I don’t deal with those empty emotions, only give clear trading directions. The short logic is already clear, just wait for the market to give the entry signal, then go for it!The biggest change in the crypto space is hidden in the revenue structure of $RAY
RAY is one of the largest DEXs in the Solana $SOL ecosystem. Changes in its revenue structure reflect the shift in on-chain trading demand.
Look at this set of data:
In Q2, tokenized assets accounted for 21% of Ray's trading revenue.
In Q3, this number rose to 46%.
In just one quarter, the revenue share from tokenized assets surged from 21% to 46%, more than doubling.
Why is this important?
Tokenized assets are evolving from a "niche category" to becoming the core revenue source for DEXs.
This is not unique to any single chain. Previous data from $UNI also showed that tokenized stocks contributed 60% of its DEX trading volume. Of course, this doesn't mean other assets are shrinking; tokenized assets are simply growing faster. 500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million｜Live Trading Record Sharing
Full performance publicly available on homepage
Day 5
Initial capital: 500 Yuan
Current account balance: 2027 Yuan
The 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million, the Great Demon King's battle to break 100 million, has never been smooth sailing.
Look at the two positions I hold now:
The BTC short position remains stable, entry average price 86382.6, current price 83942, 10x short has already gained 28.25% profit. This trade is based on a trend I firmly believe in, with a thick safety margin, maintaining a margin ratio of 1481.75%, not afraid of small rebounds, holding the trend.
But on the other side, PONS taught me a lesson.
Opened a 3.5x short at 0.5435, now it surged to 0.5579, floating loss of 9.18%.
Clearly, I was bearish, but it stubbornly pushed up against the trend. Altcoins are ruthless like this—the main force can ignore the overall market, a single candle can confuse your thinking. With 77% long ratio standing there, long sentiment is full, I shorted against the trend and got slapped directly.
This is the truest face of the market:
No one is always right, even the Great Demon King steps on traps.
BTC follows the trend, bringing me profits; PONS goes against the trend, making me pay tuition.
I won’t get cocky because of one profitable trade, nor will I recklessly cut losses or double down because of one floating loss.
Margin ratio is still very high, no liquidation risk for now, I need to calmly observe: will PONS turn and fall? Or will the bulls continue to push? Once the momentum is confirmed wrong, admit the mistake.
Many think challenging 100 million means making big profits on every trade.
Wrong.
It’s about holding on when winning, defending the bottom line when losing, relying on rolling positions and compounding, and building up through long-term win rate.
Starting from 500, this path is half candy from the market, half slaps from the market.
I continue to hold a bearish view on BTC; this PONS trade serves as a reminder to myself—not to lightly go against sentiment on altcoins.
Take it slow, no all-in, steady and solid, the Great Demon King's battle to break 100 million continues.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Don't directly assume that all ETH rebounds are bull traps; the bearish main trend is not unchangeable 💲
Many people firmly believe that all $ETH rebounds are illusions, thinking every rally is to attract bottom-fishing funds and provide better shorting opportunities for bears. They insist that the bearish trend is the main line, plan to hold short positions, and remain cautious about uncertainties brought by PCE data.
High US Treasury yields and a high interest rate environment indeed continue to suppress risk assets; this macro logic is sound. But it's important to understand that macro bearish factors only limit the height of rallies and do not mean the market will only decline unidirectionally. Within a downtrend, there will be significant structural rebounds; some rebounds are normal capital repairs, not entirely traps deliberately designed to lure bears into early profit-taking.
Trading with the trend and holding positions is indeed difficult, but you can't assume the trend won't switch. Tomorrow's PCE is a critical watershed; if inflation data is lower than expected, the market will immediately lower rate hike expectations, and risk assets will see a rapid surge. Even if the overall direction is bearish, a strong short-term rebound can quickly erase floating profits and, under high leverage, even trigger forced liquidations.
Both trend-following and strategic outlook must be built on risk control. Don't subjectively assume the bearish trend is always the main line; data will directly rewrite market expectations. Floating profits are just book figures, but there's no need to be blindly bearish. Reserving protective profit-taking in advance and dynamically adjusting based on market signals after data release is a more prudent approach.
The market won't follow a fixed main line to the end; once expectations reverse, the trend will change accordingly.
$ETH $BTC
#ThisWeekFacesNonFarmAndPCEKeyDataYesterday I opened a short position on XRP, thinking I could profit from a pullback, but the market reversed and rose, leaving me slightly stuck.
Actually, the pitfall this time was ignoring the power of the news.
With continuous inflows into the XRP ETF, supported by positive news, funds are willing to push prices up.
Relying solely on candlestick patterns to short can easily get you slapped by the news.
Every penny I’ve earned through hard work is swe.$BTC #MicronEarningsAhead #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
On the eve of Micron's earnings report: Options are betting on an 8% big swing, what exactly is that AI stock guru who blew up doing—long or short?
Here's the conclusion first: Data is very likely to exceed expectations, but the stock price may not necessarily rise.
Wall Street currently expects Q4 revenue of 51.3 billion and EPS of 31.7, while the company’s own guidance is 50 billion. Institutions generally believe it can beat that, with UBS even seeing 52.4 billion and EPS of 32.5. The fundamentals are indeed solid, with a gross margin guidance of 86%, an unprecedented high in the history of the storage industry.
But the options market tells a different story. Implied volatility shows the market is betting on a ±8% to 10% swing after the earnings. More importantly, the put/call ratio for options expiring on October 2 is 1.7 times, indicating a very strong bearish tilt. In other words, many are buying protection or outright shorting.
The "AI stock guru" you asked about, Leopold Aschenbrenner, did come back after blowing up and losing 35 billion. But his position is completely opposite to what you might think: he cleared all his semiconductor shorts and then put 55% of his position into storage—28% in SanDisk, 27.6% in Micron. He is not shorting; he is going long, and heavily so.
So the situation is this: analysts are bullish on the fundamentals, options traders are buying insurance, and the person who blew up is betting real money on a rebound. These days, the positive news about US crypto regulation keeps coming one after another.
On September 28, the SEC just updated the Crypto FAQ, which in plain language means:
A truly decentralized protocol that can operate on its own, even if it uses the money earned to buy back Tokens, cannot be directly classified as securities by the SEC just because the buyback raises the Token's value.
The biggest impact of this on the industry is that DeFi can finally have a more serious discussion about value capture.
The first impact is:
Now, for mature, decentralized protocols, the regulatory uncertainty around the path of fees → protocol revenue → buyback/burn → supply reduction has decreased significantly.
In the future, when the market looks at DeFi, TVL and APY might become increasingly insufficient metrics; how much money the protocol earns and how much real cash it can sustainably use to buy back its own Tokens will become more important.
The second impact is: decentralization directly affects whether Tokens can access protocol cash flow.
If the team still controls multisig, treasury, upgrade permissions, and economic models, it remains difficult to apply this logic.
In the future, the US Securities and Exchange Commission may require projects to relinquish control not just to claim decentralization, but because it directly relates to how much buyback, burn, and fee flowback these Tokenomics can achieve.
Therefore, buyback and burn will also be a main theme going forward, with many protocols conducting burns.Don't directly define a rebound as a bull trap; the corrections during a downtrend are not necessarily traps set by the whales to unload their holdings 💲
Many people see $ZEC dropping from 1663 to 1355, then rebounding to 1420, and immediately conclude that this rally is purely a bull trap by manipulative whales, a last escape window left for retail investors, and that short positions entered at 1611 have gained over 120% profit, firmly believing that altcoins will only continue to decline after a crash, with no chance of reversal.
But it's important to distinguish that just because a whale has sold off in one go, it doesn't mean selling pressure will be endless. After short-term negative news settles and the whale's selling is done, the market can easily experience a technical corrective rebound. This rebound may not be a deliberate pump by whales to unload, but a normal price bounce caused by short sellers taking profits after an oversell.
Even if fundamentals are weak and the ecosystem has shortcomings, it doesn't mean a one-way downtrend is inevitable. The characteristic of crypto altcoins is high volatility; even with mediocre long-term fundamentals, under the influence of capital sentiment and narratives in the privacy sector, strong rebound rallies can occur at any time. Simply saying "altcoins are destined to go to zero" is too absolute; many coins undergo repeated cycles of gains and losses, not just a continuous decline after a drop.
With non-farm payroll and PCE data approaching, and rising expectations of rate hikes, the macro environment is indeed bearish, but macro negatives don't mean the market will only fall without rising. Before major data releases, the market itself will experience intense fluctuations. While longs are crowded, crowded short positions can also fuel a rebound. Once many shorts choose to take profits and exit, prices can quickly surge, directly erasing existing floating profits.
While profiting handsomely from this short position is impressive, don't assume every rebound is a bull trap. After profiting from shorts, it's even more important to set proper take-profit protections and not stubbornly hold, assuming the market will fall indefinitely. Candlesticks and fundamentals can only serve as references; meme coins can always produce unexpected counter-trend moves.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH
#ThisWeekNonFarmAndPCEKeyData Yesterday liquidated longs, today liquidated shorts: This rebound wasn't bought by the bulls. Yesterday it was the longs who got liquidated, today it's the shorts — but what concerns me more is that the funding rate has collapsed to 0.0006%. 1. What happened today First, the Asian session saw a low point in the morning. $BTC started from 82,557 (absorbing last night's selling pressure), the 4H at 08:00 still dropped 0.51%. Second, it turned positive in the afternoon. The 4H at 12:00 was +1.09%, at 16:00 +0.44%, once reaching 84,558; now at 83,949 (+0.57%). The A-shares market warmed up simultaneously: Shanghai Composite +0.18%, Shenzhen Component +0.34%, ChiNext Index +0.09%. Third, it softened again after the US market opened, with data disappointments. The 4H at 20:00 was −0.48%; at 22:00, the US August JOLTS job openings came out at 7.079 million (expected 7.225 million), and the September Conference Board consumer confidence was 81.9 (expected 89.2) — both far below expectations. 2. Who got beaten on the market today Today the shorts took the hit — exactly the opposite of yesterday. First, forced liquidations reversed. In the OKX sample, BTC shorts were liquidated for 440,606 U, longs only 103,377 U; yesterday was the opposite (longs 1,132,476 / shorts 26,995). Second, the funding rate collapsed. BTC funding rate $ZEC finally broke even today
I was stuck for a whole month, barely making any moves during that time
Woke up today to see it at over 1380, already below 1400. I'm afraid 1690 was the peak for this cycle. Those chasing highs hoping to break even might have to wait another two years
Just opened my phone and saw the news: a giant whale who held a long position for two months closed it today, selling over 20,000 coins
This is probably a major factor behind today's panic selling
I also feel this BCH at $338, do you dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: In the past week, BCH violently surged from 260 to 366, a rise of over 40%, with trading volume skyrocketing and shorts getting squeezed out. Now it has pulled back to 338, fluctuating between 333-354 in the last 24 hours. The 200-day moving average was pierced by a big bullish candle, RSI surged above 70 into the overbought zone, and MACD formed a golden cross with volume expansion. The breakout is valid, but you need to take a breather in the short term.
First thing: CME + ETF double boost, BCH is being "seriously noticed" by Wall Street for the first time
On October 19, CME launched BCH futures. Standard contracts of 250 coins, micro contracts of 25 coins, cash-settled, regulated.
BCH enters the traditional derivatives system for the first time
Institutions finally have compliant tools to play BCH
On the same day, Grayscale submitted a revised filing to convert BCH Trust into a spot ETF, to be traded as BCHG on NYSE Arca.
Second thing: Shorts got bloodied, but bulls didn’t benefit much either
Reports say that during BCH’s surge, millions of dollars in short positions were liquidated. Funds rotated from BTC to the "Bitcoin fork coins" sector, with BSV also rising.
But look at the chart—after hitting 366, who’s buying?
Volume dropped from extreme highs, funding rates turned positive (bulls paying), and open interest started to decline after the surge.
A typical "shakeout before the good news is realized, harvest before the good news lands."
Third thing: October 19, watershed or guillotine?
CME futures launch is a clear positive, but the market always buys the expectation and sells the reality.
If hype continues before October 19, BCH might surge to 380-400
If no new story on launch day, likely a "good news fully priced" dump
If the SEC warms up to ETFs, that would be the real game changer
BCH managing to carve out an independent rally against the trend is impressive, but one tree can’t make a forest; how long it lasts depends on fate.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
CME futures launch on October 19, institutional channel opens
Grayscale ETF revised filing submitted, narrative established
Short squeezes + fund rotation, strong short-term momentum
200-day moving average breakout, structure turns bullish
On the other side:
From 260 to 366, 40% gain, seriously overbought
RSI 70+, short-term needs digestion
No fundamental change, hash rate and on-chain volume still weak
Macro tight, Fed hawkish, BTC unstable
Funding rate positive, bulls’ holding cost high
Resistance above: 350 → 366 (this round’s high) → 380-400
Support below: 330 (recent low) → 320-318 (breakout retest) → 300 (structural lifeline)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 330-320 range, enter after a long lower shadow or volume contraction signals bottoming, stop loss below 320, target 350-366. Exit if volume breaks below 320, don’t hold. Aggressive shorts only lightly try near 366 if there’s clear stagnation + volume long upper shadow, stop loss must be tight.
Swing traders:
Build base positions in batches at 320-330, add more after breaking and holding above 366. Target near 400 but accept over 30% pullback. Reduce positions around October 19 futures launch to avoid "buying the expectation, selling the reality."
Long-term believers:
BCH is not BTC, don’t hold perpetual contracts at high levels with spot thinking. This wave is news-driven impulse, not a fundamental reversal. If you want to hold long-term, consider waiting below 300.
BCH now is like BTC in 2017—
Before CME launch, everyone called it a "scam," after launch, institutions entered, price doubled.
But the question is: Are you the one who laid the groundwork early in 2017, or the one chasing highs at 60,000 in 2021?
At 338, do you dare to chase or wait for a pullback?
$ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH While the $BTC market cap remains stable, altcoins have quietly formed a rare large-scale structure not seen in years.
Recently, OTHERS/BTC is challenging a long-term downtrend. After a smooth breakout this year, it has gradually opened an upward momentum, with momentum indicators showing a bullish crossover. The market atmosphere increasingly resembles the early stages of an altcoin rally.
On a large scale, it is clear that the overall weakness pattern of altcoins is slowly improving. The total market cap of small and mid-cap coins has firmly risen above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the conditions for capital rotation are gradually brewing.
However, an improved pattern does not mean a repeat of the previous major bull market. A true altcoin rally confirmation still requires a breakout and stabilization, a continued decline in BTC dominance, ETH maintaining strength relative to BTC, and more small-cap coins rising collectively.
Currently, the long-term weak structure is just beginning to loosen, and signals are gradually improving. If capital successfully rotates later, the upcoming upside potential and elasticity of altcoins will be very promising.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $ETH $ZEC BlackRock moved $127M in BTC and ETH within 40 minutes, while retail longs faced heavy liquidations. In the early hours of September 29, BlackRock reportedly withdrew 1,150 BTC from Coinbase Prime, worth roughly $95.43M, along with 11,800 ETH, worth around $31.52M. That’s approximately $127M moved within 40 minutes. The key question is whether these transfers represent institutional custody or positioning changes rather than an outright directional bet. Moving assets to cold storage does not necMarket Quick Notes: After the Wedge, Prepare to Close Short Positions
$BTC formed a descending wedge on the one-hour chart, which at first glance can be quite nerve-wracking. But this pattern usually doesn't lead to further drops; instead, it quietly accumulates strength and tends to break upwards.
I haven't closed my short positions yet, originally hoping for another pullback. But with the pattern clear before me, I won't be greedy: I took full profi
$BTC #AMDWorldLabsAcquisition Don't equate crowded longs directly with an immediate market reversal; crowded longs can also push the market higher 💲
Many see ETH's long-short ratio at 1.54, with retail at 70.6% and top traders at 67.1% long, and funding rates staying positive, then assume the unanimous bullish sentiment signals a reversal, firmly opening short positions at 2715.02, thinking the idea of chasing longs at 2700 is completely untenable.
But crowded longs are just a sentiment indicator, not an immediate trigger for a drop. Historically, during the middle of an uptrend, the market often maintains crowded longs for a long time, with large amounts of long capital continuously entering, allowing the market to continue rising until incremental funds are exhausted and a correction occurs. Crowding represents high game intensity, not an imminent collective crash.
24-hour data shows long liquidations of 431 million, which looks like longs are being harvested, but many of these liquidations are short-term leveraged longs chasing highs, a short-term shakeout, not a collective exit of long-term capital. ETH's three attempts to break 2750 met resistance and pulled back, only indicating heavy selling pressure at this level, not that longs have completely lost their offensive capability. A wave of news stimulus can trigger another attack.
Your short position near 2715 is based on the idea of game pressure and quick in-and-out, not a long-term hold, which is fine. But don't simply think: as long as everyone is collectively bullish, the market must go down. The path of least resistance depends on whether new funds are entering or exiting, not just the current long-short position ratio.
Whether going long or short near 2700 is just different short-term game choices; no one is a fool. The market itself has no absolutely correct direction; the only bottom line is to manage risk well and strictly follow take-profit and stop-loss rules. Don't let extreme comments in the discussion affect your mindset; for short-term trading, just follow your own plan.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#ThisWeekBringsNonFarmAndPCEKeyData 𝕏 and Planet have been saying PUMP is going to rise, I said 5X long to avoid being shaken out, and some people were very dismissive, fully proving that 99.9% of the market are gamblers, CRDO dropped from about 210.97 to about 192.67 on Monday, a one-day decline of about 8.7%. I'm not catching the knife on this optical module wave.
Here's what I saw: On Friday, it surged to a high of about 214.87 and closed around 210.97; on Monday, it opened around 206, hit a low of about 189.44, and closed near 192.67.
Today it touched a low of about 189 again, currently around 195, still some distance from last Friday's high; in the same sector, COHR and AAOI also dropped on Monday.
Simply put: The optical communication AI line collectively pulled back, CTO sold a batch under 10b5-1, sentiment and valuation were both pressed down.
My view: Non-farm payrolls and PCE data haven't landed yet, US Treasury yields are high again, the gap rebound should be treated as a signal to observe, not a bottom-fishing signal.
For now, I'll just observe and not bet on catching the full drop; if it fails, watch for a volume-driven break below Monday's low of about 189, or wait to talk rhythm again if it stabilizes above about 210.
Do you think it will first hover between 189–200 waiting for data week #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 or directly fill back to 210? #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $CRDO $COHR $AAOI $BTC
Since $BTC broke through $87,000, it has experienced a relatively long period of high-level consolidation and is currently still within this high-level consolidation range.
The lowest price was $82,500, and it is currently hovering between $83,000 and $84,500.
Amid obvious abnormal market frenzy, such as capital inflows reaching a one-year high,
this current position may be forcibly held up by large capital.
As for why this is said, simply put, for example, gold, which previously had a relatively strong correlation with $BTC, has recently been steadily declining.
Yet Bitcoin remains at a high level, which fully demonstrates the huge influence of market capital. But what would happen if capital inflows turn into outflows?
So the current issue precisely lies in the capital side. If capital inflows continue and are accompanied by positive factors, it may continue to break through; if capital outflows occur, then being pushed back to $70,000 is not difficult at all.