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The "holding pattern" before the big Nonfarm Payrolls: Crypto market sideways and volatile, what are the veteran traders waiting for?
Brothers, the market these days can be summed up in one word in plain language: grinding.
BTC is around 84,000, ETH at 2,700, SOL near 119, neither going up nor down, daily moving averages almost converging, volatility dropped to freezing point. This movement is like a bulldozer picking up coins, seemingly with opportunities but actually sweeping both up and down. Technically, resistance is solid at BTC 85,000 and ETH 2,750 on the upside, while key support is at BTC 82,000 and ETH 2,680 on the downside. Stuck in the middle, it’s a pure "meat grinder."
Looking at the news, recent macro data is basically "schizophrenic." The small Nonfarm Payrolls (ADP) disappointed, the market was about to hype a rate cut, but then Fed's Kashkari immediately turned hawkish: "Inflation is still too high, there may be one more rate hike this year!" The US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5%, big money is seeking safety, who dares to blindly rush in at this critical moment?
Market sentiment is more realistic. The Fear & Greed Index cooled from 78 to 68, billions liquidated on both longs and shorts across the network, funding rates approaching zero. What does this mean? It means both bulls and bears are worn out by this repeated volatility, no one dares to hold heavy positions over the weekend. But notably, options open interest has surged, big money is quietly buying "lottery tickets," betting on big swings after the big Nonfarm Payrolls.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 BTC and ETH are both stuck in place, and this scene is even more boring than a big drop. Does sideways movement really mean nothing is happening? Staring at these two giants for a long time gives the illusion that the entire market has hit the pause button. But after scanning the strength and weakness across sectors, I found that’s not the case at all. The mainstream is stagnant, but underneath, seats are quietly being swapped. First, the facts. Recently, BTC and ETH neither crashed down nor surged up; their volatility has been compressed and flattened. The original author felt tired, said they wanted to sleep, find a part-time job, and even thought that watching the market long-term was not very meaningful. I completely understand this fatigue because most of the time the market moves sideways, with only a few phases showing a decent direction. But sideways doesn’t mean funds have disappeared; it just means they’ve changed their temperament. The current state is more like risk appetite hasn’t expanded but is instead contracting locally. Money is unwilling to spread widely and is only picking and choosing in a few sectors; the strong continue to be held together, while the weak slowly lose attention. This is the hardest time for altcoins because without incremental funds taking over, no matter how good the narrative, they easily become a one-day wonder. The bullish logic is not absent either. After a long sideways period, once BTC or ETH chooses a direction, the accumulated volatility will be released all at once, sector strength will instantly diverge, and those who have already positioned in strong sectors will benefit from that move. The bearish risk is also clear: if the mainstream remains inactive for too long, funds will grow impatient, the profit effect in altcoins will continue to fade, and sentiment will slide from boredom to indifference. At that time, the catch-up drop often comes faster than expected. My own feeling is that now it’s not about who watches the longest, but who watches the most accurately. Shift your focus from everyI still hold the same view: I am not optimistic about the $ONE token.
Some say they are very optimistic about it in the long term, but personally, I don't think it has a long term.
Don't be fooled by the fact that the price hasn't directly crashed now; in reality, it's just the last gasp.
The current price is 0.002017, and today's display still shows a decline.
A while ago, this token was said to be delisted, then it surged 70%.
This increase lasted for several days, then after a delay was announced,
it directly plummeted. Now, although it hasn't hit the lowest point,
it is just testing whether there are still buyers in the market. As long as there are still speculators,
it wouldn't have crashed directly. If you don't gamble on a rebound, better to take profits and secure your gains.
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Thinking back to when I first entered the industry, I had no idea when BTC reached key levels; I just chased highs and cut losses on dips. Once, I chased a high at 84000, but it immediately dropped back. I held on for three days but couldn't take it and cut losses, losing quite a bit on that trade. Later, after losing 200,000 U gradually, I finally understood the importance of key levels. Now BTC is at 83847.6 again, with resistance at 84000 and support at 83000. I immediately know what to do: try shorting near 84000, try going long near 83000. Open a position with 5000 U, never hold a losing position without a stop loss. Losses suffered shouldn't be in vain; learning from them is how you make money. $BTC #Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$CT short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.4132%, price -0.55%, open interest -1.6%. Decline accompanied by position reduction, new positions have not yet matched; holding short through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price.
$NIGHT short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0286%, price +1.05%, open interest -2%. Price increase accompanied by overall position contraction, holding short through settlement faces both adverse price movement and funding fee expenditure.
$MON short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0253%, price -1.3%, open interest -0.54%. Decline accompanied by position reduction, new positions have not yet matched; holding short through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price. Iran has already received the official response from the United States to the latest proposal, and contact has not been interrupted. This at least indicates that both sides are still willing to let the mediators continue conveying messages, and the situation is not completely closed.
However, in reports about the negotiations, there is a detail more worth noting than the "resumption of talks": the disagreement involves the order of actions. The U.S. hopes to see Iran take concrete measures first, and Iran is also unwilling to give up its own leverage first. Both sides worry that if they act first, the other side will not fulfill their commitments.
From an outsider's perspective, it might seem easy to just have each side make a concession first. But lifting the blockade, opening the waterways, and nuclear arrangements all involve real interests. Who acts first, how much they act, and how verification is conducted will directly affect whether the agreement can hold.
For oil prices, this means the market needs more than just positive statements. A set of phased implementation arrangements that allow both sides to confirm the other's actions is far more useful than a statement like "the talks were fruitful." Otherwise, the risk premium reduced today could be added back by the next tough statement.
I still hope this contact can move forward. The cost of continuing the stalemate after the war has dragged on this long is already very high. But when judging progress, I will pay more attention to concrete implementation steps. Even a small step beginning to be fulfilled is more reassuring than another polished post-meeting statement.
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Let me analyze the current market and news of $ETH for everyone.
ETH fundamentals are quite strong: institutions want safety, trust, and liquidity, all of which Ethereum excels in.
DATs already hold 7% of the supply, possibly reaching 15% this cycle, BitMine has accumulated over 6 million coins in fifteen months.
Digital asset products attracted 3.55 billion this week, with ETH-related inflows of 702 million; Hayes predicts $10,000 by year-end, Q3 rose over 70%, ETH/BTC finally broke years of downtrend.
But watch out for risks, on September 29, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of 2.81 million, ending continuous inflows, which had once reached 850.8 million;
Grayscale Mini lost 25.5 million in a single day. Governance rifts, Paradigm causing Tempo fork disrupting the roadmap, plus post-quantum/ZK adding uncertainties.
Technically, 2800 is resistance, some suggest canceling staking, if support fails, it may test 2500.
Mid-term, I am optimistic about ETH, short-term control your position and don't hold on stubbornly.
$BTC
$SOL
#US 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002 $ETH has been consolidating sideways for a week, with various indicators returning to neutral levels, the direction is uncertain, and trading difficulty has increased.
My personal judgment is that there will be another main upward wave, but this wave will be weaker than the previous two, and it will not continue to consolidate at a high level like the previous two times.
After all, there is little positive news support, relying only on capital support, which will eventually exhaust, especially since there are too many profit-taking positions now.
The upcoming rise will make the bulls' situation more complicated.
They will face multiple pressures such as short sellers' suppression, bulls taking profits and fleeing, and bulls turning bearish.
My judgment is clear: as long as it does not experience a deep pullback to wash out profit-taking positions, any rally is an opportunity to sell!
I will not short! But I also will not enter at this time; around 2300 is the price I am willing to sell at.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"$FIL Supply reduction sounds bullish, but the market isn’t buying it yet.
Less supply doesn’t guarantee more demand. While other alts are moving, FIL remains stuck near the lows.
When good news fails to lift price, it may be time to rethink the position and watch for stronger opportunities.#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #FirstNEARSpotETFInUS #TokenizedStocksOnAave So frustrating! BTC is now at 83847.6, neither going up nor down, which is really annoying. If I want to go long, 84000 is holding it down; if I want to go short, the trend is still bullish. This is exactly when I used to get emotional and place random orders, ending up losing 200,000 U. Now I tell myself: hold on! Don’t place orders unless it’s a key level. Resistance at 84000, support at 83000, wait for the levels before making a move. Small position of 5000 U, set stop loss properly, don’t hold losing positions. Trading is against human nature; the more you want to trade, the more you have to hold back. Opportunities come from waiting, not chasing! $BTC #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI ⚠️ $BTC vs ETH vsSOL | WATCH THE TRAP
Most traders blow up by buying $SOL momentum before $BTC even establishes a price floor.
Here’s the rule of thumb:
1️⃣ $BTC stabilizes liquidity
2️⃣ $ETH absorbs selling pressure
3️⃣ $SOL delivers high-beta expansion
If you buy step 3 before step 1 confirms, you're the exit liquidity.
Are you waiting for confirmation or chasing the first green candle? 👇
#Crypto #Trading #BitCoin #Solana #EthereumETH's spike to 2738 yesterday is now something no one dares to touch today.
Yesterday's low was 2658, the high touched 2738 but didn't break through, closing at 2683. Today it opened at 2683, with a high of 2712 and a low of 2668, current price around 2706. Volume has shrunk.
The range 2712–2738 remains resistance. If it breaks below 2668, it’s likely to test 2658 first.
In the short term, watch if 2683 can hold. If it can't hold, consider it a pullback after a spike and avoid chasing at this price. For those already holding, watch if 2668 can support; if not, consider reducing your position. $ETH BTC's spike to 85650 yesterday, no one dares to follow today.
Yesterday's low was 82902, the high touched 85650 but didn't break through, closing at 84134. Today opened at 84137, the high was 84491, the low 83411, current price around 84007. Volume has shrunk.
The range 84491–85650 above remains resistance. If 83411 below breaks again, it's easy to see 82902 first.
In the short term, watch if 84137 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a pullback after a spike, don't chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 83411 can support; if it can't, consider reducing positions. $BTC US August PCE inflation was lower than expected. $BTC surged to $85,500, then dropped back down. Reason for the weak rally: PCE is weak, which should be positive. But the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.3%. Where did the money go: High Treasury yields mean risk-free money has become more expensive. The opportunity cost of buying $BTC rises accordingly. So even with positive news, the price gains can't hold. With the same batch of data, $BTC only touched $85,500 briefly. $HYPE rose 3%,ETF Brief｜Eastern US 9-30 (Last Trading Day of September)
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
BTC Spot ETF
• Single-day net inflow: +$31.07 million
• Leaders: BlackRock IBIT +$54.84 million; Grayscale GBTC -$23.19 million, Fidelity FBTC -$10.90 million (clear internal rebalancing among leaders)
• 7-day cumulative: +$743 million, net inflow for 9 consecutive trading days, total inflow for September about $2.73 billion, a strong support this month
• Total AUM: $107.96 billion
ETH Spot ETF
• Single-day net outflow: -$2.81 million, ending the 7-day consecutive net inflow trend, slightly negative, scale is small and considered profit-taking rather than large-scale exit
• 7-day cumulative: +$260 million, weekly remains positive but much weaker than BTC, funds clearly favor Bitcoin
• Total AUM: $17.78 billion
Watch Alert
• Observation: If BTC experiences net outflow from ETF for 2 consecutive days, it indicates the end of this institutional phase; if ETH sees large consecutive outflows, altcoin risk increases.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH The number 84000 is more worth watching than the 84000 from yesterday.
Because this time it climbed up while falling.
It even dropped 0.15% intraday, yet the price stood above 84014.
To put it simply, this wasn’t bought up, it just couldn’t be sold off.
From a trader’s perspective, this kind of breakout is the most frustrating.
If you chase it, the rise lacks strength. If you don’t chase, it just won’t fall.
What you really need to watch isn’t this round number barrier, but whether volume follows behind.
A breakout without volume will most likely come back to test again.
To be honest, this kind of grinding position is the easiest to trap people.
I’m not chasing now; I’ll wait until it stabilizes.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC Is the SKHYNIX 1330 level deep enough to hold?
Yesterday's low was 1265, the high touched 1346 but didn't break through, closing at 1298. Today it opened at 1295, reached a high of 1330, a low of 1282, and the current price is about 1311. Volume is still there.
1330 above is still resistance; further up is 1346–1370. If 1282 below breaks again, it's easy to see 1265 first.
In the short term, watch if 1298 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a rebound digestion and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 1282 can support; if it can't, consider reducing your position. $SKHYNIX $BTC current price 84075, a 15-minute level repair rebound wave has formed, pulling back upward from the low of 83368, with the price standing above the Bollinger Bands middle band at 83603.
The Bollinger Bands have reopened, the upper band at 83968 has already been pierced by the price, short-term bulls briefly dominate, multiple short-term moving averages are turning upward, forming short-term support. The 24-hour range still maintains 82918‑85639, not breaking out of the previous large consolidation framework.
Combined with the risk appetite support from Micron's better-than-expected results in the US stock market, the external environment has not deteriorated, providing conditions for a rebound in BTC. But it must be recognized that this is only a small-scale repair, not a direct trend reversal upward.
Short-term key observations:
Nearby resistance above at around 84170, then upward to the previous high near 85600. If volume does not keep up, it is easy to encounter pressure and fall back again.
Support below at 83600‑83380; if it falls back here, it will return to a back-and-forth consolidation state.
From the daily pivot perspective, this rebound still belongs to internal back-and-forth swings within the pivot; do not assume a breakout just because of a small bullish candle. Small-scale rebounds can be observed, but the major structure has not fundamentally changed.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
⚠️ Market review, not investment adviceNow BTC is at 83847.6, should you go long or short? The bulls say: the trend is bullish, if it breaks 84000 then look to 85000, if not now then when? The bears say: 84000 is a clear resistance, you should short at resistance, chasing highs will get you trapped. I used to be indecisive at times like this, switching between long and short, getting slapped back and forth, losing 200,000 U. Now my answer is: do nothing, wait for direction. Go long if it breaks 84000, go long at 83000 support, watch the game in between. Small position of 5000 U, no holding through losses. Trading is not about who predicts better, it's about who makes fewer mistakes. $BTC #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI Everyone is scared after $SOON dropped from 0.56 to around 0.45.
I’m doing the opposite. 😈
Went long around 0.4544 with 2x leverage, betting this is a shakeout rather than the end of the trend.
First target: 0.48 → 0.50.
If 0.40 breaks, I’ll rethink the setup.
Meanwhile, $ZEC is still holding strong after my long near 1146. $TRUMP is also on watch, but I’m not chasing yet.
You panic, I’ll take the risk. 😂
$SOON $ZEC $TRUMP $BTC
#IranUSDealStandoff #
#TokenizedStocksOnAave
#AMDWorldLab#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
Interest rate hike expectations may be delayed. I think whether the rate hike happens now or not will no longer have much impact on $BTC and $ETH.
Last month's rate hike was different, with prices rising rapidly.
A rate hike does not necessarily mean prices will fall.
Similarly, a rate cut does not necessarily mean prices will rise.
Last night, when the PCE data was released, the market first rallied then fell,
indicating that the current market sentiment is bearish.
Most news is just to further amplify the current trend, not to reverse the market.
Market sentiment always outweighs news, and the big trend is unstoppable.
The crypto space is all about consensus; once consensus forms, the market quickly converges in one direction. Currently, mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and $ZEC are still oscillating within a range, with bulls and bears still battling.
When this sideways phase ends and a direction is chosen, that will be the time to charge.
What we need to do is wait, wait for the next trend.
At present, the forecast is that the bulls' charge is weak, and the market intends to move downwards. Small positions can short high, but once this consolidation phase ends and a direction emerges, be sure to follow the trend.U Sister 9.29 Thursday $ETH Strategy
Shorting strategy:
Wait for the price to rebound to the 2740-2760 resistance zone, enter a short position when the 4H candle closes showing signs of stagnation, a long upper shadow, or volume failing to keep up.
Stop loss: above 2785
First target: 2670
Second target: 2655
On the 4-hour timeframe, the previous high at 2806 faced resistance and pulled back. Currently, this is a range-bound recovery after a high-level decline. This rebound is just a retracement repair, not a trend reversal. Current price is 2705.58, MACD indicator DIFF has just slightly crossed above DEA, the red bars show weak volume increase, bullish momentum is weak, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. The 2740-2760 zone above is a key resistance area with concentrated chips; this was the previous decline platform, so selling pressure will concentrate here during the rebound.
Overall, it is a wide-range oscillation pattern. Do not chase shorts prematurely; wait for confirmation of resistance on the rebound before participating. In a choppy market, the probability of sweeping back and forth is high. Be sure to strictly use stop losses and prioritize watching without signals.Do you still remember what the BTC trend was like when it last approached 84,000? It directly spiked down, trapping a bunch of people who chased the highs. Now it’s at 83,847.6, just one step away from 84,000. Will history repeat itself? Last time I chased the high at 84,000 and lost 200,000 U, a vivid memory. So this time I’ve learned my lesson: I won’t chase longs near 84,000; instead, I’ll lightly short with a stop loss at 84,100 and a target at 83,500. Opening a position with 5,000 U, no holding through losses, must have a stop loss. Of course, history won’t simply repeat; if it really breaks through, I’ll admit my mistake, stop loss, and reverse to go long. $BTC #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Big Brother Maji's collective recovery of the $150 million large positions, the pattern remains, keep holding.
Latest update, the total exposure has reached $150 million, the status is clearly refreshed compared to before. The two major mainstream targets firmly hold the profit zone, even HYPE's losses have significantly narrowed, finally everyone is recovering.
Breaking down the changes in the three positions:
BTC｜369 coins · 40X full position
Slightly increased to 369 coins, opened at 83799.60, current floating profit +53,100 U. Liquidation price 70930.78, the safety buffer is still very sufficient, still the ballast stone of the entire position.
ETH｜35,000 coins · 25X full position
Still the core profit contributor of the account, floating profit +158,000 U. Cost 2675.61, firmly above the cost line. As long as Ethereum does not experience a deep pullback, the overall confidence remains.
HYPE｜206,000 coins · 10X full position
The only one still at a floating loss, but the loss has shrunk significantly from over 800,000 to -136,200 U, the recovery speed is quite impressive. The base position was not cut, and was slightly increased to continue betting on a rebound.The opponent pushed the king's pawn to e5, seemingly aggressive, but in fact giving me the d5 square—$ETC's 5.92% rise in the last 24 hours is just this bluffing pawn advance.
I've counted the board. The short-term RSI reads 65.6, the long-term only 51.1, a typical piece disconnection: the fast horse has charged to the front line, while the rear rook and bishop are still stuck on the baseline. The short-term Bollinger Bands have pushed the price to the 80% position, with only 1.4% ceiling left to the upper band; the mid-term is even more extreme, at 86% range position, with only 1.2% breathing room above. When the pawn lines on two timeframes are both pressed to the edge, any grandmaster knows—this is not an offense, it's a hanging pawn waiting to be counter-pulled.
My candidate move is to sacrifice a piece to seize the center: place a short at around 7.38, which means giving the opponent 6.0% more space above the current price, letting them burn their last initiative on this square. The mid-term target is to first reclaim 6.48, a 6.9% profit down from the current price; the main target aims at 6.27, a full 10.0% harvest distance. As for stop loss, I set the defense line at 8.10—leaving a 16.3% tolerance from the current price, a concession necessary in the endgame, losing one square doesn't mean losing the whole game, provided you don't exchange your rook for a hostage.
A true chess player never counts pieces in the midgame, but counts squares in the endgame. In the current position, the bulls' pawn chain is overextended, supply lines stretched, and defense zones full of holes. What I need to do is let them exhaust their ammo in the uptrend, then exchange one pawn to take out their entire diagonal.
📉 Short:
Entry: 7.38 (current price +6.0%)
Take Profit 1: 6.48 (-6.9%)
Take Profit 2: 6.27 (-10.0%)
Stop Loss: 8.10 (+16.3%)
This is not a prediction, this is a calculated killing move—the opponent's next move, I wrote it twenty moves ago. #strategyplaybook$ZEC's most expensive baton handoff: 1,695.50
ZEC surged wildly from the bottom to 1,695.50, only to be knocked back to reality by the red resistance zone
What you really should focus on isn’t the price, but these three massive volumes:
1.122B → 604.9M → 902.2M
The peaks of holdings/trades align perfectly with the price top — this isn’t a breakout, it’s a baton handoff. When the fuel tank is full, the only way is down
Even more exciting is the long-short structure:
- Retail investors are overwhelmingly bearish: Binance accounts 0.65, OKX 0.83, large account numbers 0.64
- But the long-short ratio of large accounts is 1.28 — the big money is going long
Retail is short, real money is buying
24h liquidations at 9.69 million, shorts liquidated 5.38 million > longs 4.31 million, the low-level rebound is squeezing shorts, but volume isn’t large, panic hasn’t peaked yet
Three iron rules:
1. Massive volume means a market top
2. Those who leverage with the trend end up as fuel for others
3. The red box at the top is not support, it’s a tombstone
Recommendations:
Don’t chase shorts (don’t pit your account against the capital side)
Don’t heavily bottom-fish (the second dip is still coming)
Wait to break back above the dense trading upper edge + holdings rise simultaneously before scaling in; decisively exit if it breaks below the horizontal lower edge $AKE Folks, listen to my advice, something's off with AKE's chart.
Damn it! The 0.0315 level was forcibly painted as a fake breakout by manipulative whales, volume can't keep up, a classic bull trap shakeout. Purely technically speaking, the resistance at 0.033 was tested three times and rejected each time, smart money has already quietly slipped away.
I watched all night, this pattern is exactly the same as the previous slow decline, don't catch a falling knife. A rebound near 0.0315 is a shorting opportunity, target first 0.028, if broken then 0.0266.
Don't rush to go all in, try with 20% position first, stop loss at 0.0332. For those who want to follow, place your orders stealthily in the token card below, keep it low-key.
The above is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk, please manage your position size yourself, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇Think about BTC at 60000, think about SOL at 80, think about WLD at 0.3, it hasn't been that long ago, so holding on is the key Yesterday, a floor slab was just inspected and accepted; the rebar spacing deviation was three millimeters. The construction team wanted to cover it up with plaster. I immediately ordered them to chisel it all out and redo it. $ENA's current structure is like that layer of plastered-off mortar—smooth on the surface, but hollow underneath.
In 24 hours, it dropped 1.37%, which looks like a light drizzle. But when you spread out the blueprint and look at the cross-section: the short-term Bollinger Band position is only 3%, the price is almost crawling along the lower band, with only 0.1% margin from the lower band. This is not support; this is a cantilever structure end with no rebar. The short-term RSI is 30.1, the long-term RSI is 51.6; comparing these two data points makes it clear—short-term under pressure, long-term stable, a typical local settlement of the raft slab, the overall foundation has not collapsed yet.
My judgment is: this is not a collapse, but backfill compaction. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 14%, with a 1.4% buffer margin from the lower band, indicating there is a gravel gradation at the bottom, not a silt layer.
The construction plan is as follows:
📈 Long
Entry: 0.08 (current price -2.8%, i.e., after settlement is in place and pouring)
Take Profit 1: 0.09 (+5.1%, first ring beam elevation)
Take Profit 2: 0.09 (+8.3%, main structure topping out)
Stop Loss: 0.07 (-13.1%, critical value for foundation pit support)
Why set the Entry 2.8% lower? Because a truly stable bearing platform is never poured at the highest elevation. What I want is the moment the concrete lands on the cushion layer—the price hugging the lower band, short-term RSI pressed near 30; this is the position where bearing capacity is most saturated. Entering at a high price is like stacking load on an uncured slab, which will crack.
The take profit zones are set at +5.1% and +8.3%, corresponding to the mid-term Bollinger Band upper edge at 8.3%, this beam. Don’t be greedy; in structural mechanics, the most dangerous thing is not excessive load but eccentric compression. Remove the formwork when it reaches the line.
Stop loss is set at -13.1%. Some say this margin is too wide, but you must understand: foundation pit excavation allows deformation but not failure. 13.1% is the limit displacement of that temporary support; if it breaks, it means the foundation is not soft soil but that no piles were driven at all.
My rating for this building is: C30 concrete, compliant reinforcement, construction allowed, but must wait for settlement stabilization before entering the site. After the $MU earnings report came out, it neither rose nor fell. Although it is not far from the previous high, yesterday the Nasdaq plunged at the close, yet funds flowed into the semiconductor sector. The more important thing is how it performs after today's opening.
PCE met expectations, reducing the probability of inflation-driven rate hikes, combined with falling oil prices, but the Nasdaq did not show much reaction, and US Treasury yields remained unchanged.
I still feel that the rebound cycle is nearing its final stage. The rebound has been oscillating around this level, with little arbitrage space, so only short-term trades are possible, which I am a bit reluctant to do.
Waiting for a higher probability opportunity to open short positions. If the Nasdaq does not break the previous high and Micron remains stagnant, then it's time to increase short positions.
Open a small short position on Hynix first to see the direction of this wave. Set a 10-point stop loss if it follows a trend. Waiting for specific nodes, as the current movement is indeed too chaotic.
As long as TEM's trend is not broken, I will hold on a bit longer.
Going forward, I will no longer do short-term arbitrage, only trend trading.
The direction will emerge.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The harsh truth behind the "positive" PCE: a carefully orchestrated "double kill" scheme
Using the favorable PCE data, the market is first pumped to trigger short squeezes, then smashed to kill longs, leaving nothing behind.
This might be the most accurate portrayal of the current crypto market. While the market is still immersed in the illusion of positive data, the chart delivers the harshest response: BTC quickly retreats to around 83400, SOL even breaks below the critical 118 support, and tokens like ZEC and SUI are all in deep red.
Why can't the solid positive of SOL ETF's weekly net inflow of 188 million move the market? The answer lies in the macro-level "ceiling" that firmly suppresses the market's upward space. U.S. Treasury yields remain persistently high, absorbing a large amount of risk capital; coupled with the black swan event of Bitget's 388 million theft, big money is fleeing frantically out of risk aversion.
Now, less than a month remains before the end-of-month FOMC meeting and the Mt.Gox compensation window opens. In the face of such huge uncertainty, any technical rebound appears fragile.
The current strategy is simple: don't catch a falling knife, don't hold positions. In the crypto market, all the good news often turns into bad news. Survival is more important than anything. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🚨 Big Brother Maji is sitting on a $157M LONG — and ALL THREE positions are currently underwater.
The latest full-position data is out, and this is getting interesting.
BTC, ETH, and HYPE are all in the red, with the entire $157M long portfolio under pressure.
BTC: 455 BTC, 40x leverage
Entry: $83,748.20 | Unrealized PnL: -$316.8K | Liquidation: $77,184.39
ETH: 36,000 ETH, 25x leverage
Entry: $2,674.24 | Unrealized PnL: -$348.3K | Liquidation: $2,590.08
#DailyOrbit "Third Sister, The First Day of October"
Ethereum stayed flat all day, short positions' floating profits slowly giving back, coffee cooling by my side, anxiety burning hot. Still some distance from stop loss, I choose to wait a bit longer.
Glanced at the funding rates, longs remain crowded, rates absurdly positive. The market never lacks brave people, it lacks those who survive long. The first day of October, will I be repeatedly harvested again? Unwilling to accept it.
Reviewed the pattern: the October after halving, 2017 rose, 2021 rose, but 2025 might stall. History has given both sweets and knives. The market won't be gentle just because "the cycle is like this."
But I still lean bearish. Only this time, I tell myself to keep light positions, scale in batches, and keep reserves. No matter how clear the quarterly direction is, you need capital to hold until the moment of realization. Those who go all-in betting on one side often fall to false breakouts.
Whether October will be profitable, no one knows. But I know, not leaving the table means there is a next round. Tonight I don't seek huge profits, just to avoid blowing up. Closing the laptop, closing my eyes—opportunities are always there, capital is not.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 ZEC: The Psychological Battle of Up-and-Down Sweeps and Value Reassessment
The current $ZEC trend is a classic example of an "up-and-down sweep" market. The price neither chooses to break upwards nor experiences panic selling; instead, it oscillates repeatedly within a range. The logic behind this is simple: the market makers are engaging in psychological warfare. This indecisive movement aims to trap both the buyers chasing the rally and the sellers cutting losses, wearing down and clearing out the uncommitted positions through repeated fluctuations.
However, beyond the market noise and battles, the fundamental logic is quietly undergoing a qualitative change.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl recently pointed out that although ZEC surged from $60 to over $1500 in the past year, its valuation has not yet reached its ceiling. A key data point is that ZEC's market cap as a percentage of BTC's market cap has risen from less than 0.1% a year ago to about 1.5%. Grayscale believes that as long as Zcash can maintain its absolute advantage in privacy features, there remains huge potential for market share expansion in the future.
Meanwhile, technical positives are also building momentum. The NU7 upgrade testnet is about to launch, signaling a new round of iterations in network performance and privacy protection mechanisms.
The current consolidation may well be the market's last "deep squat" before digesting these long-term positives. When the psychological battle ends, value will ultimately return. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ADA is up +3.31% in 24 hours, but the price has reached a position where neither bulls nor bears can easily add more.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are relatively strong, with the current volume at 0.94 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, indicating activity close to normal. Consistent direction does not mean unlimited space; the closer to key levels, the more important subsequent support becomes.
Current price is 0.253, about 4.58% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2414, and about 1.54% from resistance at 0.2569. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.2569 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 0.2414, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.2389. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.2596 is currently just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Do you value cycle alignment more, or are you more concerned that the risk-reward ratio at key levels has worsened?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.$XRP is near $1.4988, up 0.58%, with $49.57M shown volume.
The $1.50 area is the level I’m watching because it’s a clear psychological pivot.
I’d prefer a brief sweep below $1.50 followed by a reclaim of $1.51 with stronger volume.
Entry: $1.50–1.515.
SL: $1.475.
TP1: $1.54,
TP2: $1.57,
TP3: $1.61,
TP4: $1.67.
R:R can reach roughly 1:5+.
If $1.475 fails, I’m out. I’m not treating $1.50 as guaranteed support; the reaction and volume decide the trade for me.$SOL is around $118.69, up 0.48%, with $123.12M displayed volume. I’m watching $118 as the nearby decision zone. If price holds $118, reclaims $120 and volume expands, I’d consider a continuation long. Entry: $118.50–120.00. SL: $116.20. TP1: $122, TP2: $125, TP3: $129, TP4: $134. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $116.20 breaks and price accepts below it, the setup is invalid. I’m not chasing the green candle; I want the pullback and reclaim to show buyers are still defending the move properly.$HYPE has rebounded significantly; can the platform's revenue support this premium?
OKX spot 24-hour range is approximately 84.64—91.90, with a trading volume of about 55.28 million USDT, and the current price is near the upper half of the range. Active derivatives trading can increase platform fees, but trading volume is highly driven by volatility; if the market cools down, both revenue and token demand may decline together.
If the 1-hour chart shows a volume breakout above 91.90 and holds after a pullback, I will raise my expectation for trend continuation; if it falls back below 84.64 and trading activity weakens, the expectation for cash flow realization needs to be lowered.🚀 $MOVE is up 15%, and shorts are getting squeezed
Shorts hold $1.34M, almost 3x the $478K in longs.
💥 But shorts are down -$134K, with only 13.1% profitable, while 86% of longs are in profit.
🌪️ Fresh flow still favors sellers: $92.7K selling vs $19.9K buying in the last 30 minutes.
Shorts are heavily crowded and underwater. If $MOVE keeps pushing higher, they could become fuel for another leg up.$BTC briefly surged to around 85600 on positive PCE data, but this was a false breakout, quickly facing selling pressure and falling back, currently oscillating near 83800. US Treasury yields remain high, suppressing upward momentum in the coin price; however, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, with institutional buying providing support. 82600 is a key defense level.
The market currently shows significant divergence between bulls and bears, with many funds placing short orders in batches between 83888-84400 to hedge and play the range. The market is waiting for macro data like the non-farm payrolls to choose a direction. The short-term trend leans towards range-bound movement, with 85600 as a strong resistance level. If volume does not increase to hold above this level, the trend will likely continue to oscillate or even retest lower levels; only a valid breakout above this resistance will open up further upside. Short-term buying on the rise is not recommended due to volatile price swings; strict position control is essential. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Every time I review, I warn myself to wait for the right-side signal, wait for the pattern to truly form, but with my finger hovering over the open position button, I start acting recklessly again.
BTC is hovering around 83800 without moving, AVAX just smoothly crossed the moving average on the hourly chart, and 11.04 is a very solid support. The risk-reward ratio is actually calculated very clearly, with a stop loss set at 10.95 to accept if it breaks, but my mind can't help but repeatedly rehearse the scenario of "buying and then dumping."
Fighting this mental demon of fearing stop loss yet fearing missing out is so tormenting. In the end, I still followed the rules and pushed in 10x leverage. Since I trust this system, I strip emotions off the chart. If the price reaches the point, decisively exit; if not, hold firm and don't try to guess how the next candlestick will form.
$BTC $SOL $SUI Brothers! This is a major risk factor, and a conclusion is about to be reached. Before that, I think it's wise to be cautious with trading.
MSCI plans to remove MicroStrategy and several other Bitcoin treasury companies from its index. The public consultation ended yesterday, and the final result will be announced on the 16th of this month.
In fact, this proposal was raised at the end of last year, but the details were vague at the time. After multiple protests, the proposal was temporarily shelved.
However, last month, they revised and added several detailed rules, putting the proposal back on the table and starting the process.
They are prepared, and the probability of this happening in the UK this time is relatively high.
If this proposal passes, it will be a huge blow to MicroStrategy and other companies that rely on financing to buy Bitcoin.
It's not just about the index provider selling stocks; it will severely impact their financing strategies.
The worse outcome is that other indexes will follow suit and implement this proposal.
That will further hit MicroStrategy.
So, to say it has no impact on Bitcoin at all would be overly optimistic.
However, the market bulls have been strong recently, so maybe the negative news can be absorbed through capital.
But no matter what! Listen to me, it's best to be cautious before the announcement.$CORE late-night official project post reiterates the three security locks of core chain staking.
Three input guarantees for Core:
→1 Bitcoin miners delegate the computing power of the blocks they have mined.
→2 Bitcoin holders stake BTC without giving up custody rights.
→3 CORE holders stake CORE.
As is well known, everyone is currently waiting for the project team to release credible data on the handling of the validator reward inflation incident. However, once again, what everyone gets is not the handling data but the project officials repeating the old so-called security narrative?
What is laughable is that while repeatedly emphasizing the reliability of on-chain security, the validator reward inflation incident still occurred? This contradictory discourse is intertwining and gradually destroying the already shaky trust crisis of the project.
So far, the project team has not provided credible data on the handling of the incident and is trying to divert public attention and opinion by posting about other matters, attempting to let the incident die down and be forgotten. But this perfunctory approach not only fails to eliminate everyone's doubts but backfires, causing more suspicion, speculation, and complaints. Under such circumstances, it is even harder for the project to shift from negative public opinion to positive sentiment, making it more difficult to advance and develop healthily.
Only by achieving the scale of $BICO can recovery be possible.
The above represents personal views only and does not constitute any other advice or guidance!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The pump-and-dump altcoin $SOON is such a trap, a huge scam! That big surge last night literally scared me off, I hastily liquidated my position with no hesitation at all! In a fit of anger, I also cleared all my losing $ETH positions! I sold all the USDT inside to cash out, planning to take a break and stop playing for a while! From September 16 to September 30, those fifteen days were full of anxiety, losing over 550 USDT, totaling 3738.54 RMB. This includes the 20 USDT reward from my planet; without that 20 USDT, the actual contract loss is about 580 USDT, nearly 3900 RMB lost.
Damn, I just lost almost a month's salary!
I need to take a break; such losses are unbearable! Also, I will never trade altcoins again—they're unreliable. I'll only trade Bitcoin and Ethereum, focusing on one coin at a time.
This time I died on $ZEC and $SOON, losing 500 USDT on one and 150 USDT on the other. $ETH also lost 50 USDT. Other profits were all under 10 USDT, but losses started at 50 USDT and up. Really small wins and big losses, brave to lose but afraid to win...
No more to say, nothing worth saying. I even quit the group in anger and unfollowed all friends I was following. I want to rest for a while.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Regarding the outlook for $BTC, I lean towards two scenarios: either a rebound near 90,000 followed by a deep pullback, possibly down to around 76,000; or 87,000 has already been the peak, with subsequent rebounds weakening and the overall trend continuing downward.
My approach is not to rush into this round of gains but to patiently wait for the next correction to present layout opportunities. Small-cap altcoins that were hyped earlier require caution, and mainstream assets like BTC and ETH should be entered in batches according to the market structure at the time.
US Treasury yields continue to rise while US stocks keep hitting new highs, so macro risks cannot be ignored. If financial conditions tighten further, risk assets may face significant adjustments.
When real opportunities arise, the market is often not optimistic but rather filled with various crisis narratives. If you missed out around 60,000 once, then you need to be braver during this correction. Altcoins are still mainly buyback-and-burn types, with a focus on blockchain infrastructure, RWA, and anonymous privacy sectors.
As for whether the bull market has already started, I tend to think this is the early recovery phase of a bear-to-bull transition. The bear market has most likely ended, but whether the bull market has truly begun still requires further market validation.Brothers, the non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 8:30. My overall judgment is: the data is very likely to be strong, which is unfavorable for short-term bulls.
Currently, the market is highly divided. The prediction market bets over 90,000 with nearly 60% probability, but Wall Street generally only expects 60,000-80,000. Considering the August non-farm payroll surprise of 162,000, if tonight maintains above 90,000, it will strengthen the rate hike expectations and suppress Bitcoin. Combined with the daily MACD death cross, volume contraction, and the 84,500 strong resistance, there are roughly three possible scenarios tonight:
Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations strongly (>100,000)
Probability 50%. The dollar strengthens, rate hike expectations heat up, BTC will most likely dip to test 82,500 (EMA20) support; if it fails to hold, then look to 80,499 (EMA30). The most dangerous macro bearish scenario.
Scenario 2: Data meets expectations (80,000-90,000)
Probability 30%. Bulls and bears tug of war, BTC fluctuates widely between 82,500-84,500, direction to be confirmed by next week's CPI.
Scenario 3: Data significantly misses expectations (<60,000)
Probability 20%. Rate cut expectations rise, the dollar weakens, BTC is expected to rebound and challenge 84,500; if volume expands and it holds, then look to the previous high of 87,399.
Strategy: Do not guess the data or take heavy positions on non-farm night; wait to observe the market's first reaction after release before acting. If data is strong, watch or lightly short; if data is weak and volume supports, consider entering. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ETH Multi-Timeframe Market Analysis
15-Minute (Ultra-Short Term)
Price is above all short-term moving averages, MACD red bars continue; RSI6=66.79, approaching overbought.
Short-term support: 2689.75 (MA20), first resistance at 2699.61, upper target 2738.
Market feature: Slight oscillating rise, short-term bulls dominate, but indicators near overheating, so a minor pullback after a rally is likely.
1-Hour (Short-Term Swing)
Moving averages in bullish alignment, Supertrend support at 2662.10, serving as the protective bottom for this rebound.
MACD continues small red bars, RSI 64.32, indicating moderate bullishness without extreme overbought.
Range: Support 2662; resistance 2721.49 (SAR), then up to the high at 2738.
4-Hour (Swing)
Price oscillates upward above moving averages, MACD turns red above zero line, RSI 57.46 neutral to slightly bullish.
4-hour pattern: Strong oscillation, inside a high-level consolidation box. Support 2640, resistance 2740.44.
Daily (Long-Term)
Daily chart shows sideways consolidation in a high-level box, MA20 provides long-term support, mid-term uptrend; however, MACD has formed a death cross, red bars disappeared, indicating a high-level bearish divergence.
Key daily points:
✅ Holding above 2740 gives a chance to challenge previous high at 2807;
❌ Breaking below 2615 breaks the daily bullish structure, leading to a deep correction.
Market Summary
ETH has the most stable structure among these three coins.
ZEC is a recovery rebound after a major drop; SUI is a low-level rebound; ETH is consolidating in a high-level daily box with continuous support below, representing a mainstream coin's lateral accumulation.
- Short-term strategy: Current price chasing longs has moderate cost-effectiveness; better to wait for a pullback near 2690 to stabilize before trying longs;
- Resistance zone: 2720~2740, if stagnation or long upper shadows appear here, it's a short-term shorting opportunity;
- Defensive bottom line: 2662, a decisive break below ends this short-term rebound. People in the circle ask every day what to learn: K-lines, indicators, Chan theory, waves, Wyckoff... all a mess in the head, just noise, useless.
Trading boils down to three simple truths: When you see a sure heavy move, go all in; if you're wrong, cut losses; if you're right, hold tight. What you lack is never understanding, but the execution power to apply these words to your account—there's a life between knowing and doing.
How hard is execution? Take dieting as an example: eat less, exercise more, everyone knows that. Teacher Tony eats one meal a day all year round, his weight stuck firmly at 120 jin.
What about you? Three meals a day plus late-night snacks, if you don't get fat, who will?
I just don't believe anyone can get fat eating only one meal a day. The same principle: if I see you truly execute "cut losses when wrong, hold when right" properly and still lose money in the end, I'll swallow my keyboard on the spot. $BTC #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Iran has received a counterproposal from the United States, but differences between the US and Iran remain. Iran has received a response from the US regarding the "7-day confidence-building plan," but there has been no substantial breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations. According to Reuters, Iranian Foreign Minister Alagheband has received US feedback through the Qatari mediator. Currently, the focus of discussions has shifted from "whether there is room for negotiation" to the sequence of specific steps.  This is actually very critical. The plan previously proposed by Iran was: The US eases military and economic pressure → Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz → Both sides resume negotiations. Meanwhile, the US hopes to address multiple issues including: free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian nuclear issue, and regional security. Trump had previously rejected Iran's proposal, indicating that there are still clear differences over who should make concessions first, how Hormuz should be opened, and how sanctions should be lifted.  Therefore, receiving a counterproposal does not mean an immediate agreement. But the positive side is: The negotiation channels have not been closed. Mediators such as Qatar are still promoting contact between the two sides, and Iran has not completely withdrawn from diplomatic talks.  For the market, the real focus is Hormuz. If the two sides can reach a phased navigation agreement: Hormuz reopens → crude oil supply risk decreases → oil price risk premium falls → inflation pressure eases → Fed rate hike pressure decreases. Conversely, if the counterproposal again falls into deadlock and Hormuz remains blocked, then oil prices, inflation, and US debt collection...$ETH is hitting 2700 again; if it can't break through today, it's done for