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📉 US Treasuries just had their worst month in four years
The 10-year yield jumped more than half a percentage point in September to 5.3% — the sharpest move since September 2022
The 30-year is sitting at its highest level since June 2002 $BTC
Here's the part that matters: rising yields are forcing some funds, including mortgage bond holders, to sell Treasuries, which pushes yields even higher. One asset manager calls it a "vicious loop"
$ETH $BTC remains locked around $83K, repeatedly testing the $84K area but struggling to build momentum. Short-term bounces may look bullish, but unless BTC firmly reclaims $84.5K–$85K, another liquidity sweep remains possible. 🔻 $ETH is under heavier pressure. After losing $2,700, it slipped toward $2,640. A break below $2,600 could expose the $2,520–$2,550 zone. 📊 PCE caused limited volatility, suggesting much of the rate outlook is already priced in. Attention is now shifting toward Micron's earPCE is positive, so why can't Bitcoin hold its gains? What about crude oil?
1. Let's start with PCE. Overall PCE for August rose 0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%), core PCE rose 0.2% (expected 0.3%), all four figures were below expectations. However! Much of this cooling is due to adjustments in the statistical method, and July's data was also revised downward. In other words, inflation hasn't improved; the measurement stick has changed. Plus, personal spending increased by 0.9%, so people are still spending aggressively. The odds of a rate hike in October are now about 50/50.
2. So the question is, why can't Bitcoin hold its gains? The answer: US Treasury yields are rising instead of falling, and the dollar is also strengthening. The market has figured out the trick behind the PCE data.
3. Technically, 85,000 is the sell wall for long-term holders, and this week it has been pushed down for the fourth time. The 4-hour descending triangle had a false breakout last night; the bottom edge at 82,500–82,800 hasn't been broken yet. The triangle is nearing its end, and Friday night's nonfarm payrolls will likely be the directional trigger: if it breaks above 85,000, look for 87,300 and 90,000; if it falls below 82,500, first watch 80,000/78,000, with the farthest target near the 200-day moving average at 71,500.
4. Now about crude oil. The 88.5–90 range is key support, with the 0.618 retracement level, three lows, and the 50-day moving average all converging here; resistance above is at 93, 97, and 100. If it breaks below 88.5, then watch 85/82.⚠️Don't be fooled by the PCE! What’s really holding down Bitcoin is the high long-term debt
Here’s my take: The short-term cooling of inflation is just a "breather," and as long-term rates don’t ease, don’t expect a big bull run.
Many people saw the PCE come in below expectations yesterday and immediately started calling for a rally.
But Bitcoin surged to 85500 and then got slammed down.
Why didn’t it rise on good news?
The key isn’t whether there will be a rate hike in October, but the cost of borrowing over a longer cycle.
The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.3%, and the 30-year yield remains steady above 5.6%.
Ironically, the market is already lowering the probability of an October rate hike, yet long-term bond yields keep climbing.
The CCC-rated junk bond spread broke through 1000 basis points, indicating risk premiums have risen.
It’s not that investors don’t want to buy risk assets; it’s that with long-term rates so high, chasing highs isn’t cost-effective.
ETF inflows are visibly shrinking, and institutions aren’t rushing in at all.
Going forward, I won’t get caught up in single data celebrations; I’ll focus on two signals:
Whether long-term bond yields clearly turn down;
Whether the nonfarm payrolls cool off employment.
If long-term bonds don’t relent, I’ll treat all rallies as mere rebounds.
Trading insight:
We always focus on immediate news for impulsive decisions, but big money is calculating long-term funding costs.
What’s visible is good news; what’s invisible is the shackle. Until the shackle loosens, the market won’t go far.
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 HPE closed yesterday at about 63.9, up about 3.9% hitting a record high, Vultr placed a $1.2 billion AMD Helios big order, I won't chase it for now.
Seen: On 9/30 closed at about 63.89, up about 3.90% from the previous close of 61.49, intraday high about 67.10, low about 63.59, volume about 32.72 million shares.
Vultr's first order is about $1.2 billion for AMD Helios AI racks, deployed to US data centers; investors raised the FY2027 network growth guidance to about 20%, Juniper synergy target raised to about $800 million.
The stock price has more than doubled year-to-date, long-term US bonds remain firm, this big bullish candle looks more like an order fulfillment pulse.
Simply put: It's like a big order suddenly arriving for server racks, the rack price jumps one notch first, which doesn't mean there will be the same big orders every day afterward.
My view: The AI rack narrative is real, but I will just observe this record high and not chase it.
Key data and earnings season should not treat the first order as an unlimited life extension.
Invalidation is to watch for a renewed break below yesterday's low of about 63.6, or to talk rhythm again if it holds above about 67.1.
Do you prefer it to pull back near 64 to buy, or wait to break above 67 to follow?
$HPE $AMD $DELL
#RateHikeExpectationsDelayed, SeptemberNonfarmPayrollsBecomeNextKey
#USTreasuryYieldsKeepHittingNewHighs,LongTermRatePressureNotEasedBrothers, today's market really makes people want to sleep.
BTC surged to 85,500 on positive PCE data, only to be pushed back down to 83,000 by rising US Treasury yields—what a false alarm. ETF inflows are also slowing down, institutions are getting stingy, and the sell orders between 84,000 and 85,000 are pressing down hard. There's no volume to break through, no strength to crash the market, just pure grinding.
ETH is even more ridiculous. An ancient whale from 2015 moved 133,000 ETH, worth $356 million, with a cost basis of only $0.31. If they dump, can the 2,690 level hold? 2,630 is the intraday support, and breaking 2,570 would signal a weakening trend.
ZEC dropped from 1,500 to around 1,450. After the doubling rally in September, bullish momentum has clearly weakened. But on-chain whales are still withdrawing from Binance, and the main wallet has hoarded over $66 million worth of ZEC, slowly accumulating around 1,400. I've definitely learned a lesson from this coin.
All three coins are grinding; the strategy is one word: wait.
Brothers, which coin taught you a lesson today? Let's unite in the comments.👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 🔥PCE positive news realized and crushed the market! Nonfarm payrolls are the real judgment day for BTC
My view: This is not a reversal market now, but a weak recovery after the positive news has been fully priced in. Nonfarm payrolls will decide the short-term direction and which side will break.
Current price on OKX for BTC is around 83700.
Yesterday, the PCE data was clearly below expectations, BTC surged to 85600 but was immediately pressed down by bears, touching 83000—a typical case of buying the expectation and selling the fact.
The double top at 85400-85600 has already formed, with strong resistance.
83800-84300 is today's first hurdle, with triple resistance from Fibonacci, 4-hour Bollinger upper band, and previous breakout level. This is the key defense zone for the bears.
Below, the first support to watch is 82500; if it doesn't hold, the focus shifts directly to the 81000 range.
On the macro side, don't just focus on the already released PCE:
The 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.17% remains high, pressuring risk assets.
ETF inflows have sharply shrunk, dropping from nearly 1 billion to 130 million, showing a clear cooling in institutional appetite for chasing highs.
The market has fully shifted its attention to the October 2 nonfarm payrolls; the stronger the employment resilience, the easier it is for rate hike expectations to rise, which is unfavorable for BTC.
My personal inclination: As long as BTC does not firmly stand above 85000, this wave should be treated as a rebound giving short positions an opportunity, not a reversal.
Trading insight:
The market will never simply follow the news. If positive news doesn't lead to a rise, it shows weakness. The real trump card is never the data already released, but whether funds dare to pay for future rate hike expectations. Don't be fooled by single-day spikes to chase highs; wait for direction confirmation before acting, which is much more reliable than betting on news.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Market Overview: Strong Q3 Close, but Facing Significant Resistance
Bitcoin rose about 43% in the third quarter, marking the best Q3 performance since 2017, while Ethereum gained as much as 71% over the same period. However, after peaking near $85,500 at the end of September, the market retreated and is currently stable in the $83,000-$84,000 range. The main resistance comes from two aspects:
· Macro Pressure: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5.3%, and the 30-year yield once hit the highest level since 2002, suppressing risk asset valuations.
· ETF Inflows Slowdown: From September 21-25, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a strong weekly inflow of $2.39 billion, but by September 30, the single-day net inflow sharply dropped to $31 million, indicating a clear weakening of institutional buying. $BTC $ETH Just finished watching that whale's position restructuring, my fingers hovered over the keyboard for several seconds without moving. Do you ever get that feeling, when you see smart money moving, it's even more nerve-wracking than watching the candlestick charts? This brother's contract position was cut from before all the way down to $150 million. On the surface, it looks like reducing positions to hedge risk, but I watched the details for a while and found that he was actually doing a very precise event repricing. BTC went from 536 coins down to 369 coins, the average price didn't change much, but the unrealized profit and loss flipped from a loss of 68,000 to a gain of 53,000, and the liquidation price was also pushed down to 70,900. What does this mean? He realized some profits at a high level while pushing the defense line forward, leaving room for both offense and defense. It's not simply bearish; it's making space for the next wave of volatility. ETH is the place that really made me hold my breath. 35,000 coins barely moved, unrealized profit expanded to 158,000, but the funding fee is negative 1.13 million. Paying this much interest every day to hold a long position is not something retail investors can afford. The fact that he's willing to pay this cost shows that in his eyes, the odds for ETH now far exceed this holding cost. The question is, has the market priced in this "big holder holding on to the death" expectation in advance? I don't think it's fully priced in, because most people's first reaction when the funding fee turns negative is to run, not to add positions. HYPE is even more interesting, the position slightly increased to 206,000, the average price dropped from 91.13 to 90.32, adding at a low point. The unrealized loss shrank from negative 1.01 million to negative 136,000, and the liquidation price also dropped to 65.4. This is exchanging time for space, enduring the toughest period, waiting for sentiment Last night, Bitcoin first consolidated near 82,900, then surged with a big bullish candle up to 85,600, just clearing out the liquidity around 85,200, trapping all the long buyers above. There's not much to target on the upside now, and the trapped bulls can't expect immediate rescue, so the short-term difficulty of pushing higher is significant. On the downside, first watch the 82,500 low, then the 82,200 support; if it breaks down effectively and fails to recover, the consolidation zone between 75,000 and 82,200 will reappear, marking the true start of a downtrend. $BTCAn ancient whale bought ETH at $0.31 and moved 130,000 coins today.
A participant in the 2015 Ethereum ICO subscribed to 560,000 ETH at a cost of $0.31 each.
Today, he transferred 133,298 of them to a new address, worth $356 million. This is the first time in 4 years he has made a single transfer worth over a hundred million.
Four years ago, when he last made a large move, ETH was still below $1,000. This time, ETH was around $2,700. But unlike many whales in the past, this money didn’t go to an exchange, just to another wallet.
Why would someone who has held for 11 years at almost zero cost suddenly move their position?
He doesn’t need to sell; these 130,000 coins are pocket change to him, and he still holds over 400,000. But choosing to move at this point at least shows he is reorganizing his assets. It could be splitting wallets, preparing for future operations, or just a security adjustment. No one knows what his next move will be.
But one thing is certain: someone who bought at $0.31 and has held for 11 years, every move he makes is worth a second look. He doesn’t watch K-lines or macro trends, only the timing he feels is right.
Do you think he is preparing to sell, or just moving to a different place?
$BTC $ETH $SUI
This ID continues to hold SUI, holding logic:
Entry: Wait for a secondary-level pullback to form a bottom divergence + bottom fractal, then buy low near the central pivot ZD; volume breakout above ZG, then retest without breaking below ZG before attempting a third buy.
Stop loss: Place defense below the central pivot ZD; if ZD is broken, the current 30-minute upward structure fails.
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box represents the current level's upward central pivot, with ZG ≈ 1.18 and ZD ≈ 1.12. The market bottomed at 1.0965 and started rising, consolidating to form the central pivot. A rally pushed to a high of 1.2119, followed by a slight pullback into the central pivot box for consolidation. As long as the starting low of 1.0965 holds, the major upward structure remains intact; only by stabilizing above ZG can there be a chance to retest the previous high of 1.2119.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Matching Observation
When the rally started at 1.0965, volume continuously expanded, indicating capital entering to accumulate. At the peak of 1.2119, there was a volume surge, but subsequent incremental capital failed to keep up, causing the price to gradually retreat. The bearish selling pressure was moderate without violent dumping. During the back-and-forth consolidation in the central pivot, volume gradually contracted, and bearish forces weakened, which is a normal chip exchange during an uptrend.
Key Observation Points
SUI is grinding back and forth within the 30-minute central pivot. 1.2119 is a significant short-term resistance level, representing an upward continuation phase. September closed with an overall account profit of about 50,000U.📈
The biggest gain this month wasn't how much I earned, but a clearer understanding: compounding isn't about chasing huge profits, but about controlling big losses.
There were clearly more profitable days than losing days, but a few single-day drawdowns were still quite large. In October, I'll continue to be steady, control position size and stop losses, aiming to keep the maximum single-day loss within 2% of total capital.
Slow is fast, losing less is earning more.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Based on the current actual trend of ETH.
Just opened a new position in HBAR .
Bullish, bullish, 5% stop loss, take profit half near the previous high at 0.131.
The risk-reward ratio is about 7 to 1.
Entry reason: After receiving support at a favorable position at 8 AM yesterday morning, a breakout and rise occurred, and now the 1H level continues to oscillate upward. Entering the market. New news from the US SEC!
On October 1, according to Crypto Briefing, Orca's Chief Legal Officer Christopher Montagano stated at Korea Blockchain Week that the innovation exemption issued by the SEC on September 17 allows DeFi to verify whether blockchain tracks are more efficient than traditional infrastructure. This exemption grants conditional relief for 5 years, until September 17, 2031; under this framework, tokenized securities venues (TSV) and specific LPs can operate tokenized US stock licensed trading, specially designed for AMMs, without needing to register as exchanges or dealers. However, the exemption is not a ruling on DeFi, requiring compliance with sanctions rules and issuer consent, clearly distinguishing from unlicensed DeFi. Orca has been involved in SEC discussions since 2025, with the platform starting tokenized stock trading in November of the same year.According to The Information, Anthropic disclosed a SpaceX computing power agreement with a maximum amount of up to $84.5 billion. The word "maximum" must be retained and should not be directly written as the amount already paid.
More interesting than the amount is the relationship between the two cooperating parties. SpaceX owns xAI and is developing its own models; Anthropic, however, needs its computing power. This indicates that despite fierce competition in models, the currently deliverable computing resources remain sufficiently scarce, and business cooperation must continue as usual.
Anthropic has previously confirmed using the full computing power of Colossus 1, while also using AWS Trainium, Google TPU, and NVIDIA GPUs. For a model company, this choice is very pragmatic: whichever platform can provide capacity on time is worth serious consideration.
I actually think this makes AI competition more concrete. Besides model performance, companies also need to solve whether capacity is sufficient and whether services can run stably. Users will not accept waiting in line indefinitely after paying just because your relationship with the supplier is complicated.
But purchasing from suppliers who also develop models raises concerns about how business operations are isolated and whether there will be enough options during contract renewals. These issues cannot be glossed over with the phrase "strong alliance."
This agreement gives me a more intuitive sense of the bargaining power of computing power suppliers.
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 The spike at 85650, I didn't chase it
📉 On September 30, the intraday low hit 85650, closing at 84134. Today, October 1, the high was 84491, currently just above 83,000. The spike is done, no one is catching above it.
I didn't chase it last night. 85650 is not my entry price. Spot is still held, no contracts added above 85,000. The most common use of such a spike is to first stop out short positions, then leave those chasing longs on the spike tip. Some are already asking what to do with their short positions. I only recognize one rule: if the daily candle doesn't close back above 85000, this spike doesn't count as a breakout.
📌 Just these few numbers.
September 30 high 85650, low 82902, close 84134.
October 1 high 84491, low 83411.
From the spike tip back to now, about two thousand dollars. The pullback isn't large, enough to show 85650 wasn't firmly held. A high point not firmly held can't be used as a reason to go long.
⏰ Friday night 8:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls. I won't make a fuss about employment numbers. Only one thing matters: is 85650 still this week's high? If yes, this spike is a false breakout. If the daily closes above 85000, I'll change my stance.
Did you stop out last night? Where? Write it down. On Friday I'll post the results; if your price matches, I'll reply.
$BTC
#Nonfarm #FalseBreakoutTAO dropped from 341 this wave, just returning to the initial rise zone
Current price 305, yesterday had a long bearish candle of -5%, lowest touched 298
341 is the high point of this round, 298 is the support given by both the four-hour and daily charts, both timeframes point to the same position
Daily chart shows volume-increasing decline, four-hour chart now shows a small volume-increasing bullish candle, indicating some sign of stopping the fall, but not strong
Resistance above at 312/319, which are the first hurdles on the four-hour and daily charts respectively
Funding rate +0.0100% capped at the upper limit, bulls are still paying fees, indicating leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out
So my judgment is, this is a pullback confirmation, not a secondary bottom test
If 298 holds, you can lightly buy in, stop loss set below 297, target first at 312, then at 319
If it breaks below 298, don't buy in, the next support is around 288
$TAO $BTC #Bittensor #AI sectorSubsequent effective breakthrough of 0.5619
With increased volume, the hourly candle closes steadily above 0.5619
Target range opens up, higher levels can be expected
Unable to break through multiple layers of resistance
Rebound encounters resistance in the 0.50‑0.53 range, selling pressure surges, then falls back to oscillate in the 0.44‑0.48 range again. $SOON Micron beats expectations, so why didn't BTC rally?
Micron's earnings report landed: revenue of 54.229 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of 50.584 billion; next quarter guidance of 60–63 billion, also above consensus. The data is solid, but the stock price only hovered around 1080, with no violent surge. The reason is not hard to understand—the optimistic expectations for AI storage have long been priced in by the market.
Mapping this to the crypto market, $BTC is oscillating around 83,500, similarly not taking advantage of the positive momentum from US tech stocks. The current correlation looks like this: US tech stocks support risk asset sentiment floors but do not provide the crypto space with mindless buying pressure. Micron's strong performance has maintained bullish confidence in the tech sector, reducing the probability of systemic sell-offs, but after the positive news is priced in, incremental funds have not rushed in, and BTC remains consolidating within a large daily range.
Therefore, don't treat a US earnings report as the key to a breakout in the crypto market. External macro factors only determine the overall environment; true upward confirmation depends on crypto's own buying power. As long as US AI tech stocks do not collectively collapse, BTC's back-and-forth movement within the range is a normal fluctuation within a bull market trend, so there is no need to panic excessively. Pay attention to the easing of October rate hike expectations and tonight's PCE. $BTC $ETH
This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Don't mistake inflows for commitments: What SOL, LINK, and HYPE each lack
Money has come in, but the story isn't closed yet.
$SOL saw about $190 million net inflow into spot ETFs over the past week, with all seven products seeing subscriptions, which carries more weight than just sentiment warming. However, about 68% is concentrated in Bitwise, meaning the buying is too concentrated. Last week's inflows are already history and cannot be counted on as future buying power. The price closed positive over the past week; the rebound can continue to be observed, with the key being whether subscriptions can spread and sustain.
The issue with $LINK is not whether there are partnerships, but how enterprise adoption translates into token demand. The reserve mechanism will convert part of on-chain and off-chain service revenues into tokens and lock them into reserves, so tracking revenue conversion and reserve increments is necessary rather than equating announcements with buying. The daily chart has dropped nearly 5%, showing short-term divergence; product progress offers research value, but valuation still depends on realization.
$HYPE requires scrutiny of revenue quality. Active trading does not equal proportional revenue growth; fees and trading structure determine the source of buybacks. It pulled back about 5.7% in the past week, needing mutual confirmation of demand improvement and price stabilization. If trading volume is lively but revenue and buybacks don't keep up, don't directly equate heat with price gains. Keep monitoring and let continuous data speak. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $LINK Real asset tokenization heats up, can oracle demand be reflected in the price?
OKX spot 24-hour range is about 14.06—14.82, with a trading volume of approximately 9.64 million USDT, current price is in the middle of the range. Growth in asset tokenization and cross-chain news may increase infrastructure calls, but there is a gap between partnership announcements and sustainable fees, and token value capture also needs separate verification.
If the 1-hour chart breaks above 14.82 with volume and holds, I will raise my judgment on capital inflow; if 14.06 is lost and the rebound lacks volume, it indicates the narrative has not yet translated into spot buying.Market fluctuations are inherently a process of accumulating strength. By calmly observing market signals and not being disturbed by short-term ups and downs, one can clearly see the true direction of the market. From the one-hour Bollinger Bands chart, Bitcoin previously dipped to a low of 82956.11 before starting a rebound, reaching a high of 85649.95 where it encountered resistance and pulled back. The long upper shadow candlestick reflects significant selling pressure above. Current Bollinger Bands parameters: upper band at 84822.94, middle band at 83962.44, lower band at 83101.94, with the current price hovering around 84122, slightly oscillating above the middle band. Structurally, the low-level support has held effectively, showing bottom support strength that has driven the price to a corrective rebound, but resistance at the upper highs remains, making it difficult for bulls to break through in one go. The one-hour candlesticks have entered a brief consolidation phase after the rebound, with bulls and bears in a tug of war. Short-term outlook: key resistance above is at the Bollinger upper band around 84820, followed by the previous high near 85650; key support below is at the Bollinger middle band at 83960, with strong support at the lower band at 83100. The market is currently in a recovery phase after a sharp decline, not a continuous one-sided rally. If the rebound fails to hold above the 84822 resistance, the market will retest the middle band support; only a valid breakout above 85650 will open further upside for the bulls. At this stage, focus on the strength of the rebound, manage risk well, and wait for clear market direction before making strategic moves. Bitcoin: consider buying on a pullback to the 83960-83100 range.🏛️ Trump just called for Jerome Powell to be "forced to resign, IMMEDIATELY" from the Fed board
That's not the part that caught my attention $BTC
The trigger is the Fed's own inspector general report on its headquarters renovation — projected cost ballooned from $1.3B to $2.4B, with management failures flagged. But the same watchdog found no criminal wrongdoing and no administrative misconduct
$ETH The pre-nonfarm surge feels more like a probe.
$BTC surged to 85650 last night then quickly fell back, now stuck around 84300. The long upper shadow indicates real selling pressure above. Volume didn’t increase in sync, and buying was scattered. This kind of rally looks more like a bull trap than a breakout prelude.
Nonfarm payrolls and PCE data are due the same day, with CME’s odds of a rate hike in October hovering around 50%, swinging back and forth. Big money fears this uncertainty most and naturally won’t attack recklessly. On-chain data isn’t friendly either: Lion Group liquidated SOL, reduced some BTC holdings, and shifted to HYPE, showing institutions are rebalancing; ETF funds continue to flow out, and smart money remains cautious. Meanwhile, retail traders’ long-short ratio still leans bullish, with sentiment fantasizing about new highs, which often signals risk accumulation.
Geopolitically, US-Iran talks have resumed, but both sides have limited room to concede, so it’s unlikely to add sustained support to risk assets.
Short positions remain held with light exposure and clear direction. Before the nonfarm data drops, don’t rush to chase any sharp rallies—they’re more likely opportunities for waiters to enter rather than reasons to go long. The same applies to $ETH and $ZEC: wait for sentiment to cool before discussing trends.
This does not constitute investment advice. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nine days of BTC ETF inflows matter less as a momentum signal than as evidence of a still-positive allocation bias: the latest $66.2M is far below the Sep 21 peak, but it remains additive. ETH's small reversal after seven inflow days looks more like a pause than a verdict. The real test is whether the gap widens as flow velocity cools.
#BTCInflowETHOutflow $ADA ADA is pressing the $0.2568 resistance after a strong rebound, but fresh data shows futures OI cooling and whale holdings declining. With volume below its short-term average, rejection near $0.255–$0.257 could trigger a pullback toward $0.24.
Short setup.
Entry: $0.254 - $0.257
TP: $0.249 - $0.244 - $0.240 - $0.232
SL: $0.262$ETH Today's operation involves three traps, pick one to hold
Plan A (Conservative): 2730-2745 Short again close to the iron plate, stop loss at 2765, target 2680, 2650. Risk-reward ratio 2.1 to 3.3, 2x leverage. The market maker loves a counterattack; on 9/30, it just swept through 2738. Stop loss basis: 2765 is 16 points above the weekly high of 2749; breaking this is a true breakout, admit the mistake without argument.
Plan B (Recommended): 2710-2730 Place a short order, stuck at the rebound line on the chart 2711/2722 retest zone, stop loss 2755, target 2650, 2626. Risk-reward ratio 2.0 to 2.7, 3x leverage. The best cost-performance balance—enter halfway through the upper shadow, stop loss hidden above the weekly high. Stop loss basis: 2755 is 6 points above 2749; breaking this means the iron plate pressed down five times has truly been pierced, exit decisively.
Plan C (Aggressive): 2690-2700 Short near the current price first, stop loss 2720, target 2634, 2600. Risk-reward ratio 2.4 to 3.8, 5x leverage, position halved. Betting on no rebound and a direct drop; stop loss is set close, if you run late you have to pay more. Stop loss basis: 2720 is near today's rebound upper limit; breaking through means bulls want to hit the iron plate again, don't argue with it.$BTC Brothers in hardship
$BTC Current price 83,729, on 9/30 a spike reached 85,632 hitting a weekly high, closing back at 83,576 — a long upper shadow carved out just like $ETH. ETF daily inflow shrank to 31 million USD, last week absorbed 2.7 billion but price remained unchanged, CryptoQuant warns short-term traders' profits hit a 21-month high, accumulating pullback risk. OI has been flowing for five consecutive days about 360 million U, only replenished 240 million on 10/1. Short-term play with $BTC: short on rebound at 84,400-84,600, stop loss at 85,700, target 82,500; only breaking below 82,500 brings a new story. Bias: bearish, waiting for rebound. $ETH hit the ceiling five times and fell flat five times
Looking at the weekly K-line here: On 9/25 it surged to 2742 but was pressed down, on 9/27 it touched 2722 and was pressed down, on 9/28 it topped at 2720 and was pressed down with a dip to 2634, on 9/29 it pulled up to 2749 setting a new weekly high but closed pressed back to 2676 with a long upper shadow, on 9/30 it tried 2738 again but was still pressed back to 2684 — this ceiling range of 2720-2750 is no longer resistance, it’s an iron plate. On 10/1 a small bullish candle closed at 2696, with a fluctuation of less than 20 points, volume shrank and it played dead. The lines drawn on the chart clearly tell the script: the descending pressure line connects the two peaks at 2749 and 2738, the rebound first targets 2711 and 2722; if it can’t reach 2749, it will continue to be pressed down; the pullback line is drawn to 2573, and if the box bottom at 2634 is broken, the measured target lies below waiting. The daily average funding rate is 0.0057%, the bulls pay so little it’s like nothing, no one is crowded — at this position, it’s a battle of patience, not emotion. PEPE, which once exploded in popularity, why has it gradually cooled down? #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
Remember the PEPE that was once all the rage? It surged sharply in a short time, allowing many retail investors to profit and spread throughout the entire community.
Its breakout back then mainly relied on the long-popular overseas frog meme, which brought inherent traffic. There were no institutions holding chips in advance at launch, early retail investors made money and the story spread, leading many major platforms to list it, and a large amount of capital flowed in accordingly.
Talking about fundamentals, PEPE has no real-world application or long-term development plan, purely relying on internet meme hype. The project lacks operational funds, making it difficult to produce new market stories.
Subsequently, a flood of new MEME coins grabbed market funds, and PEPE, lacking new narratives, gradually faded from view.
As a high school trader, I deeply feel that these kinds of coins are entirely driven by sentiment and have no intrinsic value. Don’t blindly enter the market reminiscing about old rallies; it’s much more rational to observe current capital flows before making a move.Citibank raised the BTC target price today from 82,000 to 113,000.
A quarter ago, they cut their expectations more aggressively than anyone else, and now they've doubled them back.
Why? Three words: the money has changed.
ETF net inflows for the year have just turned positive — from a loss of 5.8 billion at the start of the year to a net gain of 934 million now. $2.4 billion poured in over one week, the strongest week since last October. BlackRock alone took in 1.2 billion.
Wall Street doesn't believe in Bitcoin; Wall Street is scrambling for Bitcoin positions.
1.26 million BTC are locked in ETFs, exceeding even Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. This is not faith, this is infrastructure.
BTC is 83,700 today, still 34% below the ATH of 126,000. Citibank says it will reach 113,000 within 12 months.
You don't need to believe in it; you just need to understand its capital flow.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥 While retail investors are still hesitating over price fluctuations, large funds have already started waiting for the outcome.
In this wave of volatility, the most important thing to watch is not just one or two candlesticks, but whether large positions continue to withstand the fluctuations.
The latest position data shows that Brother Maji's total exposure is about $150 million, and the core positions are clearly warming up.
🟠 $BTC
369 BTC, 40x leverage.
Opening average price around $83,799, current unrealized profit about 53,000 U.
Liquidation price around $70,930, the position still maintains a large safety margin.
🔵 $ETH
35,000 ETH, 25x leverage.
Cost about $2,675, current unrealized profit about 158,000 U.
ETH has returned above the cost line, also the position contributing the most to current profits.
The signal behind this:
Large funds have not exited due to short-term volatility; instead, they continue to wait for the market to realize gains.
Of course, leverage is always a double-edged sword.
BTC needs to hold key support, ETH needs to confirm the strength of the breakout.
The market won't rise just because someone is bullish,
but the choices of capital often reflect market sentiment in advance.
What to watch next is not just the price,
but who is continuing to add positions and who is starting to retreat.
The above is only a personal market record and does not constitute trading advice.
$ETH $BTC $HYPE On the eve of National Day, things outside are not quiet either
Overnight, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower: Dow -0.26%, S&P -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.08%. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.29%, and the 30-year hit 5.62%, a new high since 2002. But Williams' remarks pushed the probability of a rate hike in October down from 70% to 50%, giving the market a breather. The A-shares closed before the holiday on 9/30, with the tech sector holding up the market under the catalyst of AI policies and large fiber optic orders. The market will be closed for seven days for National Day, reopening on 10/8. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 3.73% in September, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 7.92%, turning green for the month and causing anxiety. The crypto market's funding situation is interesting: $BTC spot ETFs last week absorbed 2.7 billion but daily inflows sharply dropped to 31 million, with institutions buying hesitantly; contract open interest (OI) saw a net outflow of 360 million USDT over the week, only replenishing 240 million on 10/1—spot supports the market, contracts are fleeing. $ETH is similar, with OI shrinking by 79 million USDT on 9/29, then returning 90 million on 10/1 but the price only rose 20 points; new money comes in and gets trapped, no wonder they say "I realize you are all M".Main focus $ETH | Strategy: Short, range grinding, bears continue to collect rent
First off the order: $ETH current price 2696, grinding back and forth within the 2634-2749 box for a week, the supply zone at 2720-2750 on top has been pressed down five times in five days, each time it touches up it gets pushed back, the bulls' faces are all swollen, Hui Yinghong's line "I found you are all M" is basically written for these chasing bulls. Direction short: place short orders at 2710-2730, stop loss at 2755 (above the weekly high of 2749), first target 2650, second target 2626, 3x leverage. Reason in one sentence: five attempts to break the top all rejected, the box bottom at 2634 tested twice but not broken, but the money on the upside has already run out—OI shrank by 79 million U on 9/29, returned 90 million on 10/1 but price only moved 20 points, new money comes in and gets hit, no time even to say thanks. MetaMask investigates security incident and exits Lido validators, LDO volume on OKX drops to $0.4498
MetaMask is proactively exiting validators running on Lido. LDO spot volume on OKX dropped 4.72% to $0.4498. If you hold a position, keep a close watch on the queue progress today. The official explanation is that the underlying network infrastructure encountered a security inspection. SlowMist and Cosine just released an analysis: withdrawal private keys remain with users, so the ETH principal is safe, but staking rewards in the past few days may be disrupted.
I checked the OKX market depth; LDO's daily trading volume reached 9.46 million USDT. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot, driven by the broader market, is still trading at $2,715.94, up 1.71% intraday. Funds are not dumping Ethereum but selling tokens due to the trouble with Lido. I switched to the contracts page and saw that LDO perpetual's current funding rate is 0.0086%, so long positions' costs haven't collapsed, but spot buy orders are being passively filled.
Beacon chain validator exits must go through a queue. If many nodes exit simultaneously, Lido's reward distribution schedule will be extended. I personally closed all my LDO perpetual long orders that were set to catch falling knives this afternoon but kept my spot base position unchanged. Since the on-chain queue is still running, I plan to wait until this batch of validators finishes exiting and the market turnover cools down before checking the depth chart again to see how strong the buy-side is.🔥Breaking News❗️October 1 $SOL: Plenty of positives, but 120 is a tough barrier
PCE cooled significantly (Core 3.0%, expected 3.3%), SOL bounced back from the weekly low of 112.48, but the current price on OKX is $118.5, down -0.3% in 24h, after touching 122.5 intraday it dropped — up 68% in two months, now stuck catching its breath at the doorstep.
Strong fundamentals: Spot ETF net inflows for 13 consecutive weeks, a record $188 million last week, totaling about $1.6 billion; stablecoin supply hits a new high at 17.3 billion; Alpenglow running on testnet (12.8s → 150ms).
Three nails pressing down: 30-year US Treasury at 5.58% (24-year high), BTC dominance rising to 58.3% siphoning altcoins; long-short ratio at 1.79 heavily skewed bullish, dense long liquidation zone at 116–117; Pump.fun moved another 48,000 SOL to Kraken to sell.
Key levels: Support at 116.2 / 112.4; Resistance at 120.3 / 124.8
In short: RSI 63, trend intact, but failure to hold 120 ruins everything. Don't chase — lightly go long on a pullback to 116 with stop loss at 112; add positions only on a volume breakout above 124.8.
$BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $AAVE price is moving, but the trading volume hasn't confirmed this move, which is more worth watching than the 24-hour +4.57% change.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.66 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour charts showing strength. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
The current price is 167.62, about 5.98% above the 1-hour support at 157.59, and about 0.76% below the resistance at 168.89. There is no shortage of directional guesses here; what is lacking is sustained movement after the price truly breaks through the boundary.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 168.89 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it falls below 157.59, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 144.01. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 176.28 is currently just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Do you trust the current direction more, or do you think the low volume will cause this move to be quickly reversed?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.During the National Day holiday, Bitcoin $BTC is very unlikely to show a clear direction.
Historically, during holidays, Bitcoin mostly trades sideways. Especially during long holidays like the Spring Festival and National Day. Market makers, quant teams, funds, and many retail investors take a break, leading to an overall drop in trading activity.
So don't underestimate the impact of our major holidays!
The real battle happens after the holiday, when positions, news, and sentiment accumulated during the break are all released.
In this kind of volatile market, chasing rallies and selling on dips often leads to repeated losses. It's better to either go long only or short only; trying to do both often results in getting hit from both sides.☀️ NOON WATCH 👀
₿BTC — $83.8K
⚔️ $85K breakout / $82.5K support
♦️ETH — $2.68K
🎯 $2.70K → $2.80K
☀️SOL — watch $120
🚀 $125 if momentum returns
🟣ZEC — $1.42K
⚔️ $1.45K reclaim → $1.50K
🐋HYPE — watch $90
🔥 High-volatility setup
📊 Meanwhile, U.S. BTC ETFs pulled$2.4B last week, flipping 2026 flows positive.
And the macro wildcard:
October rate-hike odds + 30Y Treasury yield above 5.6%.
Which coin moves first? 👀$MU earnings report is out: fully exceeded expectations, but barely moved in the first hour after opening
Revenue $54.2B, expected $50.5B; next quarter guidance $61.5B, consensus $56.8B. EPS $33.42, expected $31.16.
Binance MUUSDT first hour after earnings: opened at 1068.9, closed at 1075.7, +0.6%, high 1089.65 low 1040.94. Last time at the same point was +14.4%. Pre-earnings options implied volatility about 7%–10% (varies by source)
My judgment (not a fact): stock price was already near 1065 before earnings, good news was priced in early; gross margin guidance about 86.25%, slightly below this quarter's 87.0%. $ETH
The real test hasn't come yet: tonight at 21:30 during the first hour of US stock market opening, last time it was hammered down 9% in that hour.
Data as of 10/1 09:00, sources: Micron 8-K press release, Binance market data, not investment advice, judge for yourself The foundation cushion layer hasn't been inspected yet, but the construction team is already building the seventh floor—that's my first impression when opening the $GALFT blueprint. A 1.95% retracement in 24 hours seems like just a light wind load, but the real danger is that it’s positioned only 0.1% above the lower band of the short-term Bollinger Bands. The price's relative coordinate within the channel has dropped to 5%, and the mid-term is even pressed down to -3%, meaning the tensile zone of this beam has already started to develop fine cracks.
I don't look at the renderings in the whitepaper; I only focus on structural stress. The short-term RSI is 32.7, the long-term is 45.0, both lying below the neutral zone, but the short-term is already close to the oversold edge—this is typical stress concentration, not a collapse, but a silent unloading before a release. Based on my field experience, this kind of point is never for chasing but for setting samples and waiting for a pullback.
Current price is $0.91, while the truly load-bearing support is at $0.87, which is 4.2% below the current price. The logic here is clear: set the entry point on a more solid concrete grade to narrow risk exposure, rather than continuing to load on a cracked beam. The first resistance at the upper transition layer is at $0.97, corresponding to 6.7% above the current price; the second secondary beam is at $0.95, corresponding to 4.7% above—note, reaching the near end first then the far end, this is a typical stepped reinforcement, not a single column supporting the entire structure.
Below at $0.78 is the structural red line, 14.1% below the current price. This is the seismic fortification baseline for the whole building; once breached, it means the foundation survey data itself is wrong, and any reinforcement is just cosmetic.
📈 Long:
Entry: $0.87 (current price -4.2%)
Take Profit 1: $0.97 (+6.7%)
Take Profit 2: $0.95 (+4.7%)
Stop Loss: $0.78 (-14.1%)
Position size should be inferred based on wind load coefficients, not emotions. The structural logic of this trade is: buy low at the lower Bollinger Band, aiming for a rebound after stress release. The risk-reward ratio is valid, but absolutely no leverage to force a top—that would be like drilling holes in the shear wall.
What truly determines whether this project can stand up is never the facade renderings, but the few piles buried in the foundation. The current problem with $GALFT is not that no one is watching, but that the load-bearing system hasn't completed static load testing yet; any upward space is built on floors not yet inspected. I placed a pullback order, not a faith order.
Blueprints can be changed, but the foundation cannot lie. Before this layer of concrete is poured, I won’t place another brick on top.📉 Foreign money just flipped ¥3.6 TRILLION in a single week
Out of Japanese bonds, then right back in — and now out again
Foreign investors pulled ¥1.34 TRILLION from Japanese bonds last week, after adding ¥2.24 TRILLION the week before, per Japan's Ministry of Finance $BTC
Japanese investors sold ¥684.5 BILLION of foreign bonds over the same stretch
Here's the part most people are skipping: Japan holds about $1.2 TRILLION in US Treasuries, the largest foreign stack of them
$ETH I resigned.
Not because I found an easier job, but because I decided to spend the coming time on something I truly want to study—cryptocurrency.
Starting today, I want to seriously document my understanding of this market.
In the past, when I looked at coins, I mostly just looked at the price.
When BTC went up, I thought a bull market had arrived;
When BTC went down, I thought a bear market had come.
Later, I gradually realized that what’s really worth studying is often not the candlestick charts themselves, but what’s behind them:
The Federal Reserve’s policies, inflation, dollar liquidity, government bond yields, ETF fund flows, market leverage, Funding Rate, Open Interest, and whether funds have truly entered the market.
Price is just the result; the funds and liquidity behind it are the process.
So I won’t package myself as a “teacher,” nor will I tell you exactly where BTC will rise tomorrow, and I definitely won’t tell you which altcoin will multiply a hundredfold.
What I want to do is very simple:
Carefully record what I see, learn, and the mistakes I’ve made.
Because the interesting part of the crypto market has never been just the price.
When it rises, it amplifies greed;
When it crashes, it amplifies fear;
When profits accumulate, people overestimate themselves;
When losses accumulate, they doubt themselves.
The market is also a mirror.
Starting today, I want to re-understand this market from the perspective of an ordinary trader.
Not predicting every trend, not chasing every hot topic.
Just being a serious observer.No way, they released this kind of earnings report, and $MU still hasn't directly soared to the sky?
$SNDK $SKHYNIX
Babala's short position on MU is still held, average price 1090.
Honestly, Micron's earnings report this time is really strong, so strong that even I, a short seller, have little to criticize.
Quarterly revenue of $54.229 billion, adjusted EPS of $33.42; even more astonishing is the next quarter's revenue guidance midpoint directly at $61.5 billion, with gross margin guidance still maintained around 86%.
Demand for data centers, AI servers, HBM, and DRAM is very strong. Looking purely at fundamentals, Micron is indeed still in an upcycle.
But trading can't just look at how good the earnings report is; it also depends on whether the price is willing to keep rising after such a great report.
Before posting, MU contracts were around 1059; after the earnings release, it did not directly break the previous high, and hasn't yet firmly stood above 1090.
This indicates that although the earnings are strong, the market had already priced in much of the expectations in advance. MU rose from around 900 to about 1100; what really needs observation is not "whether the performance is good," but how much unentered capital is willing to chase higher.
Price-wise, 1075–1090 is currently the first resistance zone, and also the key level for my short position to watch.
As long as the rebound cannot firmly hold above 1090, the short-term structure still looks like a high-level consolidation digestion; first watch around 1040, and if broken, then look at 1020 and the 1000 round number support.
But if MU reclaims 1090 and further breaks through 1105–1120, it means the market chooses to continue trading on the strong guidance, and the resistance near the previous high may be tested again.
So Babala is not betting on Micron's earnings being bad this time.
On the contrary, the earnings are very good.
What I am shorting is "expectations are already very full, but the price reaction to the good news is not as strong as imagined."
Earnings tell the story, but price tells me whether the market believes it or not.Big Brother Maji quietly pulled back: total exposure dropped from 157 million to 149 million, with BTC, ETH, and HYPE all reducing positions simultaneously. The account finally has one position turning profitable, but most are still holding on.
BTC 393 coins, 40X full position, cut 62 coins, cost raised to 83795.20, unrealized loss of 143,800 U, liquidation price lowered to 71679.67. Actively reducing positions means lowering risk weight first, but the 40X leverage remains—no giving up on BTC's volatility, just shortening the battle line.
ETH 35,000 coins, 25X full position, slightly reduced to become the only profitable position, +360,300 U, currently the account's safety pillar. 25X leverage is relatively restrained, liquidation at 2552.29; as long as this line holds, there is still room to maneuver.
HYPE 191,000 coins, 10X full position, reduced simultaneously, unrealized loss narrowed to -248,700 U, cost 90.31, liquidation at 63.95. But be clear—the improved loss is not due to market pullback, but a buffer created by cutting chips; no signal of counterattack yet.
Reducing positions doesn't mean the overall strategy is broken, more like preparing supplies for this protracted battle.
$BTC $ETH 。#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 🔥 BTC IS BACK ABOVE $83K
BTC briefly ripped above$85.5Kafter cooler PCE data, but bond yields near5.3%erased most of the move.
📍 $83K = key battlefield
🚀 $85.5K = breakout trigger
🎯 $87K → next test
⚠️ $82K = danger zone
ETF flows remain strong, but macro is still fighting the rally.
Does BTC reclaim $85.5K next? 👀☀️ SOL IS LAGGING THE MAJORS
SOL:~$118.2
📉 24H: -1.2%
🛡️ $117 = support
⚔️ $120 = reclaim
🎯 $125 = +5.7%
🚀 $130 = +10%
BTC got the PCE bounce.
SOL still needs buyers to prove they want the move.
$120 reclaim tonight? 👀$NIGHT current price is 0.0407, up 27.54% in 24 hours, positioned at 73.2% within the 24-hour range of 0.0311 ~ 0.0434. On the 15-minute chart, among the last six candlesticks, 2 are bullish — selling pressure dominates. Let's first discuss the short-term structure. On the 15-minute level, $NIGHT is above MA20 (0.0404) and MA50 (0.0393), with the two moving averages separated, indicating a clear short-term direction. The 2-hour range is 0.0231 ~ 0.0434, with the current price at 84.1% of this range; the 2-hour MA20 is 0.0359, and the price is 13.36% above it (2-hour timeframe). The daily chart shows a complete bullish structure: $NIGHT's MA20 is at 0.0252, with the price 61.62% higher; the daily range is 0.0151 ~ 0.0434, positioned at 88.6%. Key levels I will give directly: $NIGHT resistance above at 0.0434 (near the last 8 highs on the 15-minute chart). Support below at 0.0391 (near the last 8 lows on the 15-minute chart), breaking which targets 0.0311 — the 24-hour low. Funding rate: -0.0160%, negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. [$NIGHT outlook] Cautiously bullish (short-term 12-24 hours) [Basis] ① 2-hour MA20 ($BTC has returned above $84,000, but positions and smart money inflows continue to decline.
According to the current market conditions, $BTC is quoted at $84,163, up 1.32% in 24 hours, with the 1-hour EMA20 at $83,809 and RSI around 56. The price has moved back above the moving average but remains below the previous high of $85,650.
Perpetual positions are about $2.361 billion, down 0.4% from approximately 23 hours ago, with a funding rate of 0.0035%. The price rise accompanied by a decrease in positions indicates a rebound with leverage exiting; new funds are not continuously chasing the price.
Among OKX smart money, 18 are long and 9 are short, with long positions accounting for 91.7% of the amount. However, total positions have decreased by about $3.22 million compared to 24 hours ago, and the proportion of long traders has dropped by about 13.7 percentage points. Traders remain bullish, but their investment is contracting.
Morgan Stanley-related funds have increased holdings to 10,436 BTC, providing medium-term demand; on-chain statistics show Bitcoin's apparent demand is still negative 112,500 BTC, indicating insufficient short-term spot absorption. The previous surge to $85,650 accompanied by short liquidations cannot be regarded as confirmation of new buying.
If the 1-hour close is above $84,350 and the price retests without breaking down, a light long position can be taken with a stop loss at $83,750 and a target of $85,550.
If the close is below $83,650 and the rebound fails to recover, a short position can be tried with a stop loss at $84,250 and a target of $82,450. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 22:00; reduce leverage before the data.