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Mid-term observation on October 6: US Treasury yields "grind at high levels," L2 cross-chain welcomes an "atomic moment"
At noon on October 6, the market's attention was pulled by two forces: on one side, the "persistent high fever" of US Treasury yields at the macro level; on the other, a technical breakthrough in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Regarding US Treasuries, Sent pointed out that the rise in yields aligns with the global trend. Here, a misconception needs correction: the rise in long-term rates cannot be simply attributed to "the Fed planning more rate hikes." According to the New York Fed's term premium model, yields consist of "short-term interest rate expectations" and "term premium." The latter is investors' risk compensation for uncertainties like long-term inflation and bond supply. Even if rate hike expectations cool down, as long as the market doubts long-term uncertainties, the term premium will support long-term bond yields staying high. This is the deeper logic behind the current "grinding at high levels."
The crypto field is witnessing a technical milestone. The ETH mainnet completed the first L1→L2 atomic cross-chain transaction, and EEZ achieved "atomic synchronous composability." This means L1 and L2 are no longer isolated; cross-layer interaction and DeFi composability can be synchronously implemented. As a mid-term observer, I believe this move is of great technical significance, solving the pain point of liquidity fragmentation. However, its short-term impact on coin price is limited, serving more as a foundation for long-term value.
Bitcoin is currently oscillating around 85,500, with the resistance zone at 86,500-87,000 still requiring volume breakout. Before macro liquidity and regulatory details become fully clear, patience is advised to wait for support confirmation. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Current market trends, which coins will profit in the future and are worth paying attention to?
Current market data and future trends show that funds are flowing from mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to infrastructure projects with actual revenue, institutional backing, and clear value capture mechanisms.
Core trends and beneficiaries
RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization)
· Core logic: Large-scale on-chain of traditional financial assets requires compliant issuance, trading, and settlement infrastructure. $LINK, as the leading oracle, almost monopolizes reliable data on-chain; Standard Chartered Bank sets a 2030 target price of $200 for it; $UNI has handled about 60% of tokenized stock DEX trading volume, with a stable buyback and burn rate of 3-4% after fee switch activation; $AAVE allows tokenized stocks as collateral for lending, with a 2030 target price of $3,500 from Standard Chartered; ONDO is the leader in tokenized US Treasury bonds (scale about $2.1 billion), with high certainty of benefits.
AI and AI Agents:
· Core logic: AI agents require autonomous payment, data acquisition, and computing resources. TAO is the leading decentralized AI model marketplace, listed as a top choice by multiple institutions; VVV provides uncensored AI services, with annual revenue exceeding $100 million, and automatically uses $2-10 of subscription revenue for buyback and burn of VVV.
Risk Warning
· Macro risks: Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical issues, etc., may still trigger a comprehensive market correction.
· Unlocking sell pressure: Many projects still have large amounts of tokens to be unlocked; attention should be paid to their release schedules. Mid-term intelligence guy view correct - foundation improving, not full bull yet. *Most comforting signal this week not whether price risen but sell pressure easing:* - Momentum whales moving coins to exchanges retreated old chips no longer wildly distributed potential dump shrinking = exactly 2,131 +2,172 BTC outflows you saw moving away from exchanges, not deposits. Whale selling pressure weakens = downside locked - More important ETF side net inflows three consecutive weeks traditional funds #US long-term Treasury yields hit new highs again, 30-year yield approaches 5.7% The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.70%, the highest since 2002.
This is not just a spectacle for the crypto community. US Treasury yields are the global asset pricing anchor; when they rise, it means risk-free returns increase, motivating funds to move from risk assets to the bond market. Bank of America strategist Hartnett put it bluntly: without a peak in the dollar and a drop in long-term yields, risk assets will struggle to recover.
Interestingly, last Friday's nonfarm payroll data was actually disappointing, with an increase of only 29,000, far below expectations. Normally, this would be positive for bonds, but yields rose instead of falling. Why? The ISM Services Price Index soared to 74, a four-year high, with fuel costs and tariff pressures passing through to end prices. The market understands that while employment is weak, inflation is not dead.
BMO fixed income chief directly stated that a 30-year yield breaking 6% is "inevitable," most likely in October. Another signal: the 10-year US Treasury yield has already surpassed the S&P 500 earnings yield, making bonds more attractive than stocks at the highest level in 25 years.
For BTC/ETH, macro pressure remains unresolved. Without a drop in US Treasury yields, risk appetite will struggle to truly recover. At this level, don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for signals that yields have peaked before acting. Control your impulses. $BTC $ETH Today I’m holding two perpetual positions: 🔵$ETH USDT Long 50x Entry: $2,713.01 | Mark: $2,712.62 Margin: $60.87 | Unrealized PnL: -$0.43 🟢$DOGE USDT Long 10x Entry: $0.09465 | Mark: $0.09488 Margin: $185.77 | Unrealized PnL: +$4.50 Overall, the positions are slightly profitable, but the 50x ETH leverage remains the biggest risk. A small move against the position can quickly amplify losses. For now: strict risk control, clear stop-loss levels, and no unnecessary overexposure. Let price confirm📊 BTC, ETH & ZEC Market Outlook
$BTC has been repeatedly testing the lower range before pushing higher, but trading volume still hasn’t fully confirmed the move. The previous resistance level has now turned into support, and holding above it is key for the uptrend to continue. #DailyOrbit October 6 Midday Crypto Market Log
Today at midday, US regulators released significant signals. The CFTC officially proposed establishing a regulatory framework for leveraged trading of crypto assets, intending to require retail leveraged trading to be intermediated by FCMs, and jointly proposed a regulatory plan with the SEC, marking a new stage of rule-based US crypto regulation. Although the Clarity Act has been stalled, administrative rules are advancing rapidly to clarify the boundary of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC.
On the market side, Fundstrat's Tom Lee pointed out that crypto and tech stocks are strengthening in sync, reflecting the market's active pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift toward easing. Improved liquidity combined with a clearer regulatory framework may provide support for BTC and other mainstream assets. Currently, BTC is in a critical window period, requiring close attention to the pace of regulatory detail implementation and changes in macro liquidity. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ZEC's current quietness is even more chilling than a crash.
An extremely unusual move just appeared on-chain: a newly created wallet address withdrew 7,166 ZEC from Coinbase in one go within the past 12 hours.
A new wallet created at this point withdrawing such a large amount—tell me, is it for long-term holding or preparing to dump at some point?
At the same time, Samson Mow fired directly, saying Zcash's market cap is ridiculously high and the risk of mean reversion is approaching.
This is not retail investors shouting; this is a veteran insider openly warning.
In the past 12 hours, over $68 million worth of ZEC liquidations occurred across the network, with short liquidations exceeding $66 million. The shorts have just been bloodied.
But have you thought about who is still holding after the shorts are wiped out?
The bulls now feel they have won, but once the price can't hold the 1280 to 1330 range, the stampede will be on themselves.
The macro environment isn't helping either.
US long-term Treasury yields are rising, Bitcoin is stuck around 86000 and can't break through, the whole market is waiting for the Fed's meeting minutes, and risk appetite is contracting.
I have neither added to my position nor closed it.
This position doesn't require rushing; what it needs is patience.
There is no feast that never ends, but when the party ends, the ones paying the bill often don't even realize they are the ones paying.
$BTC $ETH
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 The short position on $BTC slipped away...
This short position only lost about 300 points.
Actually, I wanted to wait until it broke above 8.7 to short, but unfortunately, I didn't get the chance; it couldn't even break 8.67.
At 8.65, it dropped back to 8.64, and fearing I might miss the short, I chased a bit.
Then it pushed up a bit, but only to around 8.66...
Why didn't I hold on longer?
Mainly because the drop was too slow, too dragging; what I wanted was a waterfall-type drop, where it plunges straight down, losing 1000 points at once...$OKB touched 127.6, hitting a nearly half-year high. What’s rising isn’t the coin itself, but OKX’s ambition to bring U.S. stocks onto the blockchain.
OKX and ICE’s joint venture OKXICE has submitted an "innovation exemption" notice to the SEC to tokenize U.S. stocks 24/7, with the first batch of 63 stocks including NVDA, AAPL, SPCX. $OKB is the gas token for XLayer.
The innovation exemption applies to "platform registration," not the "token securities attributes" — with soul-bound KYC and custodians holding shares 1:1, the compliance framework is very strict. Financial breakdown: tokenized U.S. stocks operate through Uniswap v4 pools and settle on XLayer; fees go to LPs and XLayer. $OKB pays gas fees but does not distribute dividends; holders receive no share of profits.
Event-driven, risk level B, position size no more than 30%. Hold at 120 and push to 128; reduce position if it breaks 116. The half-year high of $OKB reflects buying into OKX’s Wall Street dream, not cash flow for token holders. $BTC $ Three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a crypto reserve asset. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem market cap.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activity require confirmation Under the trending topic of weakening BTC whale sell pressure, the most common mistake is not misjudging the direction, but hastily trying to recover losses after a misjudgment. Paul Tudor Jones recalled in his personal interview in "Market Wizards" that early in his cotton long positions, he believed his judgment was correct and kept increasing his position size. When the price started moving in the opposite direction, he did not manage the risk first but continued to let his viewpoint explain the market. When the market hit the limit down, his nearly full position had little room to maneuver and he had to exit.
He later reviewed the situation and realized that what really hurt his account was not failing to predict the limit down in advance, but two things: treating his judgment as fact and having a position so large that he couldn't calmly correct mistakes. Since then, he prioritized defense over prediction, assuming daily that his positions might be wrong; when the trend didn't cooperate, he reduced positions first instead of adding to prove himself right.
This experience applies directly to the crypto market: after liquidation, immediately increasing leverage may seem like seizing the next opportunity, but in reality, it lets the previous loss dictate the next position size. It's better to pause for a while, write down why the original logic failed, what new evidence is needed to reopen a position, and the maximum loss tolerable if wrong again. If these three points are unclear, do not reopen. Reviewing the most desperate attempts to recover losses with these three points usually reveals repeated mistakes.Four attempts blocked at 87000 = exactly the boy who cried wolf trick used at most 3 times you flagged earlier. Fourth attempt now liquidity trap setup. *Four consecutive attempts failed hold above 87000 large number short positions clustered around 86900 significant short liquidity piled above:* - Whales likely first push price up clear pending orders then turn downward major correction = classic liquidity sweep before sharp drop. Same as liquidation map: above 2771 ETH short liq 826M, BTC equi$BTC is stuck around the $87,000 level, but the real divergence isn’t showing up on the candlestick chart.
BTC is trading near $86.7K, pressing against the upper Bollinger Band on the 4H chart. KDJ J is around 99.5 and RSI is approaching overbought territory. The short-term structure remains strong, but $87.2K has become a stubborn resistance zone after three failed breakout attempts.#DailyOrbit Spot buyers lacking to take supply - that's exactly the 80/100 bull score problem Darkfost flagged. *BTC bull market score 80/100 multiple indicators bullish but spot volume buying demand weak:* - 80 score doesn't mean 80% chance up don't treat indicators like lottery odds - correct. Same as your whale selling pressure weakens + ETF 3 weeks inflows = bottom rising but yesterday ETFs -$89.9M BTC -$51M ETH outflows, 2,131 +2,172 BTC outflows from exchanges but spot taker volume not expanding - Bul$BTC is now at 86058, up 0.99% in one day, looking quite stable, but looking at the futures data reveals an anomaly: the long-short account ratio in 4 hours dropped from 1.50 to 0.93, with a clear decline in the proportion of long accounts.
At the same time, open interest rose from 27,900 to 30,500, with positions still increasing. Price is rising, positions are increasing, but long accounts are withdrawing. I usually don’t chase this kind of structure directly, as it’s easy to get shaken out before choosing a direction.
Right now, I’m only watching 86650. If it breaks above with volume, it means new money is pushing, and I will follow. If it falls back to 85800, then this wave is still a consolidation and won’t move.
What’s really worth watching is when 86650 is tested, whether open interest continues to rise or starts to fall.
Are you more concerned about whether 86650 can break through, or if 85800 breaks first?
$BTC #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 SOL is sitting around $120 while Solana keeps pushing deeper into institutional finance. Today’s DvP launch is a major development: tokenized assets + payments settling atomically in seconds. The infrastructure story is getting bigger. 👀🔥 $SOLYesterday afternoon, the most interesting event was the delisting of pumpbtc and bob. Many people were betting on the delisting as a positive signal, but how could the market manipulators feed you meat every time!
So the delisted coins showed two extreme market behaviors, let me explain these two situations to you;
First, according to Binance's previous announcement, starting from 16:30, new non-reducing positions for contracts like PUMPBTC and BOB were restricted, and at 17:00, automatic settlement and delisting took place.
Then the action came: PUMPBTC suddenly surged in the last half hour, with the perpetual contract price rising from about $0.0181 at 16:30 to a peak of $0.05351 at 16:42, an increase of nearly 200%. Who could withstand such a surge! Short sellers at low prices suffered huge losses and liquidation pressure, their shorts were directly crushed, left crying on the ground!
Looking at BOB, it first surged high, then free-fell. From 15:04 to 16:49, the contract price dropped from the afternoon high to the low point, a retracement of about 70%, crushing the longs. Anyway, they won't let you make money!
Both are contract delistings, one sudden surge putting shorts under pressure, the other a plunge hurting longs, a mixed double strike! Only a few made money. After opening positions is forbidden, if spot prices rise, you can only go long, so the short sellers get slaughtered like dogs. Such a pitiful operation!
But every time there are definitely players, every time people bet on delisting coin trends, because the volatility is really huge. If you're lucky, you can make money!$BTC $BTC $ Three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a reserve asset for cryptocurrencies. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activity require confirmation The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.7%, the highest since 2002. The 10-year yield also touched 5.35%, matching a peak from over twenty years ago. This is more worth watching than BTC's short-term price swings.
Why have yields spiked again? The ISM Services PMI released the same day provides an explanation. The data itself at 54.9 isn’t very strong, but the price index jumped from 72.6 to 74, the highest since July 2022. The service sector is still expanding, but price pressures are rising again. Inflation isn’t dead, so the Federal Reserve can’t ease up. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen came out to reassure, saying this round of rising US Treasury yields aligns with global trends, and there’s no clear shift of funds from US Treasuries to German or Japanese bonds. Translated, that means high yields aren’t just a US issue, so don’t panic. But whether the market panics depends on where the money flows.
For BTC, the short-term pressure is direct. Interest-free assets always lose out against high interest rates; capital would rather earn 5.7% on Treasuries than bear volatility. BTC is oscillating around 85,000, with strong resistance at 87,000. Without yields coming down, a breakout is difficult.
But looking longer term, the logic reverses. The higher the rates, the more interest piles up on the US government’s $40 trillion debt. Eventually, it will have to be diluted by inflation or backstopped by implicit easing. Either way, the dollar’s credit is being consumed. BTC, as a non-sovereign hard asset, benefits from this dynamic.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Dogecoin can now not only be spent but also used as gas
On September 30th, the DogeOS public testnet went live, developed by the team behind the MyDoge wallet. In the future, lending, games, and various applications will run on it, with all transaction fees paid in DOGE. The official faucet distributes 42.069 test coins daily to developers, even the token issuance carries a doggy flavor.
I was sitting on the toilet scrolling through this news, my legs went numb and I didn’t want to get up. My mom knocked and asked if I had fallen in.
Some friends poured cold water on it: it’s just a testnet, not the mainnet, why get excited? I want to say, before DOGE could only be used for transfers and tipping, now every application run requires $DOGE as gas. The more applications there are, the more gas is burned, and the happier the dog runs.
I don’t understand code, I only understand one truth: a dog that works is a good dog.I am the mid-term intelligence guy!
Currently focusing on $ETH for the mid-term, several signals to keep in mind.
On the positive side, the spot ETF had a single-day inflow of 111 million, with BlackRock's ETHA holding strong;
BitMine absorbed 15,112 coins this week, holding over 6.01 million coins accounting for 4.9% of supply, but with a cost around $3300, floating loss of 3.6 billion.
Glamsterdam testnet has been activated, Gas limit raised to 200 million. SEC approved 3x leveraged BTC/ETH futures ETFs. Tom Lee expects $25,000-$50,000 this cycle.
But risks also exist: weekly net outflow of 138 million, staking withdrawal queue surged to 851,000 ETH (MetaMask security incident led to a preventive withdrawal of 523,000), waiting nearly 14 days.
USDC net burned 1.36 billion this week, with 1.09 billion flowing out on-chain.
There is divergence in the capital flow, don’t get ahead of yourself, wait for confirmation.
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Reason BTC can't break through right now is lack of spot buyers willing to continuously take supply. Today saw set of data where analyst Darkfost stated BTC's bull market score reached 80/100, with multiple indicators leaning bullish, but spot trading volume and buying demand remain weak. My understanding is bullish conditions there, but funds to continuously take supply still need to catch up. 80 score doesn't mean 80% chance of going up; don't treat indicators like lottery odds. Still maintainUS Stock Night Session Overview: AVGO sentiment heats up driven by Anthropic chip financing news, testing the 360-363 resistance range, closing above 363, and only a non-drop on Wednesday will count as a valid breakout; AFRM is catalyzed by cooperation with Antom under Ant Group International, only a valid rise above 77-78 will be considered strong; DDOG daily chart shows strength running along the 8-day moving average, with resistance ahead at 290 and support at 270, trend remains unchanged if support holds. #AVGO #AFRM #DDOG #USStocks$DOGE Dogecoin looks strong today, but actually it’s a slow decline after a pump. This kind of market is hard to break out.
It has now pulled up to 0.096, creating significant selling pressure. The market is already diverging and cannot break through effectively. It is very likely to continue oscillating.
This position is very suitable for intraday short T trading, with a high short at 0.096 and buying support around 0.094-0.093 below.
I think shorting now is very appropriate. There won’t be a big move in the short-term meme market. While oscillating, the recent high point might be near 0.94 where you can reduce positions. ETH has had over 200 million USD withdrawn for five consecutive days.
But it hasn't dropped. It hovered around 2700 for seven days straight holding steady.
Looking at the trend over 30 days, it has actually risen by nearly 10%.
Something's off, so I reviewed it and found about reasons.
First, the conclusion: the money hasn't left; it's just in hands.
First, the "outflow."
Redemption doesn't equal selling. When someone redeems fund shares, the manager has to free up coin
#DailyOrbit ETH shorts are entering parabolic growth.
Unless they know something I don't...
Otherwise, they are about to be squeezed.
Time will tell everything.
— The phrase "Time will tell everything" usually appears when one is not very sure themselves.The most interesting thing about BTC right now is that the price hasn't broken through, but the whales have already made their move.
Since October, whales have increased their holdings by 14,335 BTC, worth about $1.22 billion.
Yet BTC is still stuck around 87,000.
This is quite interesting:
Retail investors are waiting for a breakout, but whales don't seem prepared to wait.
The dense on-chain chip area is between 83,300 and 84,600, and the real target to break above is 86,700 to 87,500.
So I'm not in a hurry to call for 100,000 yet.
Let's first see if 87,000 can hold.
If it holds, this $1.2 billion is called a preemptive ambush;
If it doesn't hold, then the whales will be joining us in jail. $BTC Bitcoin just put BOTH bulls and bears through the blender. 🚨
Friday:
$87.2K → $83.8K
$580M liquidated
Then today:
$86.9K → below $85.4K
Another $250M wiped
Now the liquidity map is getting interesting.
Above:
$87K–$90K → sizeable clusters
Below:
$81K–$85K → roughly 2X more liquidation liquidity
That doesn’t guarantee direction.
But it tells you where the heavier fuel is sitting.
Everyone’s watching the next bounce.
I’m watching which side gets liquidated firs$SOL ETF cooled off
Not exactly strong, not exactly weak, stuck at the lower edge of the resistance zone between 122.5 and 125.
First, let's look at the bullish side. A surge of 41.5% in August, another 14.6% in September, climbing out of the pit in two months, technically standing above the main moving averages. Alpenglow upgrade is on the way, broader market BTC holding at 86,000, ETH holding at 2,700, when risk appetite rises, SOL is always the first to be mentioned.
But the Solana ETF completely cooled off this week. According to Farside data, as of the week ending October 2, the US spot SOL ETF only attracted $2.43 million, compared to $188 million the previous week, slashed to a fraction. Net inflow for the whole of September still increased 40% to about $271 million, but October started off cold. The cumulative net inflow of about $1.6 billion is the foundation, but short-term buying is truly interrupted.
Open interest is also dropping, indicating leverage is reduced, both bulls and bears are waiting. Only a breakout above 125 will bring momentum buying, with targets at 135 and then 148; if it can't hold 117, it will retest a deeper pit.
CME BCH futures launching on October 19 is a minor catalyst; the real focus is whether SOL ETF flows can stabilize.
SOL is living on narrative this round; without ETF inflows, 125 is the ceiling. You wait to break even, others wait to cash out
$AAVE has risen about 13% in a week. Those who bought and held a week ago still have profits, but newcomers may not want to endure any pullback at all.
So with the same drop, some see it as normal, while others have started to doubt.
I think its current stage performance is still commendable, but whether it can continue to rise depends on whether new buyers are willing to step in when selling occurs.
If profit-taking increases but the price remains stable, that carries more weight than a sudden spike. Conversely, if even slight selling causes a clear decline, short-term expectations must be adjusted accordingly.
$BICO is around 0.02094, slightly raised from the 24-hour low of 0.02053, but still in the lower half of the range.
This improvement is acceptable but not enough to say it’s strengthening.
Those with high holding costs tend to see every rebound as an opportunity to break even, while new buyers expect a rally; their goals may be opposite. If it can gradually move away from the lows later, I will increase my attention, but for now, I don’t take the desire to break even as a basis for an uptrend.
$XRP is still near 1.50, basically flat over the week, with no obvious breakout recently.
What concerns me more is the waiting cost: just because the account hasn’t lost much doesn’t mean this position still fits the original judgment.
If it was bought as a short-term start but has made no progress, it should be reassessed. Continuing to hold is fine, but the reason must withstand today’s market test.We are entering the Danger Zone ☣️ Keys.
It starts from 3rd October.
We touched 87k again on 2nd, just before the key zone started
Main dates inside of the danger zone are 3rd, 7th and 10th.
If they use 10 years repeated history they will either use these dates for immediate drop or for last top on Resistance cluster between 87-89k as you can see in red colour.
If this is used they would either if it is bull make a healthy correction 79k . $BTC
Are we on the verge of a flush?
Spot hasn't stopped selling since September 21, which calls the sustainability of this upward movement into question...
Above all, the pump over the weekend was basically purely futures-driven.
Moreover: None of the local lows from last week were swept; the market makers have built up liquidity like world champions...$ZEC Grayscale is selling, whales are buying: the most divided scene for ZEC has appeared
ZEC retraced about 21%, ETF net outflows continue, but whales are increasing positions inversely, signaling a split.
Net inflow: Grayscale ZCSH cumulative inflow once reached $271 million, turned negative at the end of September, weekly outflow of $93.56 million, redeemed $30.25 million on September 30, outflow of $26.93 million on October 2; cumulative net inflow shrank to $213 million, scale dropped from $980 million to $751 million.
On-chain: Garrett Jin holds 202,000 ZEC at an average price of $437, with unrealized gains of about $224.5 million, also holds 38,000 short positions as hedge. A certain whale withdrew about 41,700 ZEC from Binance and OKX in one week, net holding 23,000; a consortium of six addresses holds 65,158 ZEC, up 15.2%, still increasing positions despite unrealized losses.
Logic: ETF redemptions mostly reflect traditional funds' risk control, whale withdrawals indicate chips transferring from weak to strong hands; shielded pool accounts for 31% of circulation, reducing selling pressure. NU7 testnet has been activated, block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, mainnet height set for October 20, target November 5.
Technical: RSI fell back near 50, 50-day EMA still above 200-day EMA, $1233 is key support.
In short: ETF is selling, whales are buying. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but big players are showing their stance with real money. DYOR.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC Back above $85K with a lot of marginally lower highs sitting in that $87K region. Can safely assume a lot of short stops would be placed there.
On the other side, the bulls need to maintain these higher lows as well as we've been seeing marginally higher lows on the way up as well.
One of those charts that is very prone to a big squeeze depending on which side breaks first.
So keep an eye out for $85K & $87K on the lower timeframes.$BTC looks calm now, but it has actually reached a point where it needs to choose a direction.
It has been oscillating repeatedly around $86,500, and it pulled back from $85,050 during the day, indicating that support below is still holding. The first short-term resistance is at $86,600; after breaking through and stabilizing above it, attention can shift to $87,500 and $88,000.
If it fails to surpass $86,600 for a long time and falls below $85,000 again, then watch out for a retest of $84,000.
In the current market, don’t let one or two candlesticks disrupt your rhythm. Before the key levels are broken, I prefer to wait.$BTC is pressing the top of a seven month range. $87.4K has rejected it three times in two weeks, and it's back at $85.8K right underneath.
On the weekly the range runs $57.8K to $87.4K with value at $72.6K. A close above $87.4K points at the $102K measured move.
As long as $76K holds I think $87.4K gets taken out. Lose it and the September breakout is in question. $BTC just rejected from channel resistance around $87K.
Bitcoin now needs to hold the midrange around $84.5K.
Lose that level and the bottom of the channel around $82.5K comes back into play.
This range is getting tight.Trade Review Notes
1. US stock liquidity is relatively weak, and the market pays great attention to resistance levels. The effectiveness of resistance levels must be taken seriously.
2. Prioritize opening short positions at high levels; break the old habit of habitually going long at highs.
3. The optimal strategy for trading at high levels is to open both long and short positions simultaneously, with equal position sizes on both sides, to hedge against the risk of sharp upward moves and avoid losses from one-sided trends.
4. Today, Hynix attempted simultaneous long and short positions at a high level; the short position gained over ten points of profit, but subsequent operations went wrong, and the long position opened at the bottom was trapped, losing 15 points. This is an execution flaw.
5. There should be standards for closing positions. Do not close short positions prematurely; wait for a clear signal of market strength before closing shorts to capture the full profit from the downtrend.
6. Learning to short is a required skill in high-leverage trading. Most US stocks are in a range-bound market with rare one-sided rallies. Only going long makes it difficult to capture full profits.
7. The advantage of opening both long and short positions simultaneously is that in a range-bound market, you can benefit from both downward moves and rebounds after reversals, automatically capturing profits from volatility.
8. Position sizing must be strictly enforced; keep the sizes of both long and short positions equal. Once the balance is lost, closing positions can easily cause large losses.
9. Technical and price level judgment skills are fine; focus on strengthening short-selling mindset, perfect the full set of execution rules for simultaneous long and short positions, and implement this logic.BTC has repeatedly surged near 87,000 but was pushed back each time, currently still hovering around 86,000, indicating that the selling pressure at this level is very real. What’s more noteworthy is that while the Nasdaq and US stocks keep hitting new highs, BTC has not broken through in sync, showing that risk capital has not fully flooded into the crypto market.
This actually aligns well with current market psychology—people fear missing out when prices rise, but are afraid to catch a falling knife when prices drop. So as long as 87,000 can’t be decisively broken, those chasing longs will become increasingly hesitant; but if it suddenly holds above 87,000, shorts may be forced to cover, potentially accelerating the rally instantly.
ETH is currently around 2,700, clearly not as strong as BTC. The real short-term focus isn’t "whether it goes up or down today," but whether BTC can turn 87,000 into support and whether ETH can reclaim and hold above 2,700.
On the macro side, US Treasury yields remain high and the dollar is relatively strong, so liquidity isn’t particularly friendly; however, recent weak US employment data has eased market concerns about further rate hikes, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Therefore, the biggest fear now isn’t a drop, but a false breakout.
If it can’t hold above 87,000 and continues to oscillate or pull back, only a true breakout with volume and stable hold can open the next leg up.
#BTC #ETH #cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #marketanalysis[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.7%, the highest since 2002, and this is no joke. But don’t just be scared by the number; you need to understand why it’s rising.
There are three solid reasons, each stronger than the last. First, US debt has surpassed 40 trillion, with interest payments this fiscal year nearing 1.2 trillion, exceeding the defense budget. The cost of rolling over debt keeps climbing. Second, the September ISM Services Price Index soared to 74, a four-year high, with tariffs and fuel costs suffocating businesses—there’s no sign of inflation easing. Third, AI infrastructure investment is booming, with tech giants competing with the government to issue bonds and borrow money!
What does this mean for Bitcoin? In the short term, it acts as a “risk-free pump.” Buying 30-year US Treasuries yields 5.7% annually just by holding, so who wants to gamble on volatile assets? Capital is being drained away, and Bitcoin lingering around 87,000 is proof. Also, the higher the long-term bond yields, the lower the discounted value of future cash flows. As a “long-duration asset,” Bitcoin’s valuation ceiling is being suppressed.
But Pharaoh has a different take. Bitcoin hasn’t crashed this time, which means what? It means the market is starting to interpret the surge in Treasury yields as a signal of “fiscal unsustainability.” When even “risk-free assets” are riddled with credit cracks, Bitcoin’s censorship-resistant narrative actually gains buyers!
Remember, the fiercer the fire burns on US debt, the harsher the short-term bloodletting, and the bigger the cracks in fiat currency credit over the long term.
$BTC $ETH #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% $ZEC please chill 😭 Why are you pumping 20 points every minute? It finally dumped to 1280 last night, and now it’s flying again. At this rate, will my 830 break-even ever happen? 😭#FedSeptemberMinutes #SolanaStocksTop4.4B #BTCWhalePressureEases From 85581 to 86336, $BTC 100x long positions with 88% floating profit for speculation. On 10.6, long and short tug-of-war, follow up after stabilization.
Entry based on effective support at 85000, 100x leverage amplifies mainstream coin volatility. Currently marked at 86336, long and short rebalanced again.
Near the first target, halve to lock in profits, remaining positions look at 87000, defend by setting cost. The essence of swing trading: know when to take profits and when to hold positions.
High leverage carries extremely high risk, rapidly changing, trade lightly and rationally with $ETH $ZEC BTC is again approaching the $87,000 level and has once again restored stable uptrends on the hourly and 1.5-hour timeframes. Targets and potential breakdown levels are shown in the screenshots. In the end, all hourly timeframes are once again on the bulls' side. By the way, in this hour, the uptrends on the hourly timeframe also brought back several assets from the TOP-10 - #DOGE, SOL, #XRP. BTC currently has three potential high marks on the hourly timeframe, but considering the return of uptrends, this is weak consolation for the bears. Trends on such timeframes are definitely more important than the marks. The situation is again in the category of "correction"$ZEC firmly short! The market hasn't moved much all day, and long positions have already withdrawn over 18 million in advance!
Yesterday, smart money had 282 million in long positions, but today it's down to 264 million. The number of long holders also dropped from 899 to 856, and the average long cost decreased from 1014 to 994, which means those who left were precisely the ones with the highest cost.
The price hasn't fallen, but longs are actively reducing their positions. This shows that these people weren't forced out by the market but felt the current level wasn't worth holding anymore. If they truly believed the market would rise, who would voluntarily pull out over 18 million of real money during a sideways market?
Long holders are quietly exiting themselves, so stop foolishly rushing in to be the bag holder. Short positions should be arranged quickly—short downwards!35B loss in one month -> 96M premium -> 45.6M profit 47% return two weeks later - that's not genius, that's tilt recovery with leverage. *Trade details you flagged:* - Premium 96M concentrated four storage/chip stocks: Micron strike 1000, SanDisk 1600, Intel 115, Marvell 250 - deep OTM lottery calls? Micron $1000 strike is 10x current ∼$100-150, SanDisk $1600 similarly extreme. If true, these are not fundamentals, pure gamma squeeze bets - SanDisk and Micron top two holdings previous fund 5.7B aThat spike at 7 PM completely stunned me, $NMR surged from 11.96 to 19.75 in one hour, nearly a 65% spike.
Now it's back around 17.1, still about 43% higher than this time yesterday, ranking first on OKX spot gainers. But after the surge, several hourly candles have been pushing down, fluctuating between 16.4 and 17.7, with hourly volume shrinking from over one million dollars to just above one hundred thousand, the heat is cooling off.
Interestingly, the futures: funding rate is negative at -0.48%, perpetuals are even lower than spot, indicating many are shorting expecting a pullback. Open interest is only about 4.5 million dollars, a small market cap, so when shorts cluster, the rebound can be fierce.
I’m not chasing it myself: around 16.35 is the bottom for these past few hours, if it breaks, it will likely continue to pull back; only consider if it stands back above 18. $BTC at 86,300, $ETH at 2715 are stable, tonight is altcoins doing their own thing.
$BTC $ETH $NMR #Numeraire #NMR #Altcoins #Gainers
#OKXNOW: Ushering in the era of 24/7 markets #ThisWeekFedToReleaseSeptemberMinutes #BTCWhaleSellingPressureWeakens, ETFFundsNetInflowForThreeConsecutiveWeeks
#RiskWarning
Not investment advice, avoid heavy leverage during spike moves, manage your position size yourself. $SNDK $SPCX $BTC
Many people are focused on the news of Leopold's big win in options, optimistic about SNDK SanDisk. But the positive news triggered an immediate sell-off, and the market has already given its answer.
On the other hand, SPCX is rocketing, with Anthropic's computing power orders potentially reaching up to $84.5 billion, yet they retain the right to cancel purchases in advance, making the revenue uncertain.
Positive news realization does not equal sustained growth, and paper orders do not equal confirmed revenue.
Amid the hype in the sector, there are many hidden potential risks.
Be rational with risk control, do not rush blindly.Everyone is watching the 90K USD mark. That’s exactly why I’m watching the opposite direction. If buy positions keep piling up, $BTC could sweep liquidity below 76K USD before entering the next real growth phase. The scenario I want to see: 🩸 Sweep down below 76K USD 🔄 Recover the 76K USD mark 🚀 Momentum returns toward 90K USD The shakeout might happen before the breakout. Don’t confuse volatility with the scenario being invalidated. ETH has had over 200 million USD withdrawn for five consecutive days.
But it hasn't dropped. It hovered around 2700 for seven days straight, stubbornly holding steady.
Looking at the trend over 30 days, it has actually risen by nearly 10%.
Something's off, so I reviewed it and found about three reasons.
First, the conclusion: the money hasn't left; it's just in different hands.
First, the "outflow."
Redemption doesn't equal selling. When someone redeems fund shares, the manager has to free up the coins for them.
The coins haven't moved; they've just shifted from the fund's account to the individual's own wallet.
The only real loss on the entire chain is the transaction fee.
So the term "outflow" is a bit scary but misleading.
Second, that batch of old coins moved.
Addresses that had been dormant for years suddenly started moving, with activity nine times the usual, looking like big holders were about to exit.
But the coins in exchanges barely increased.
If they really wanted to sell, the coins would have to enter exchanges first. Since they didn't, it's not selling.
It might just be a wallet swap or staking.
Third, the shorts are busier than the longs.
The pressure to dump has been increasing, and positions have piled up high.
But leverage is retreating, down to a seven-month low, meaning less money is being risked at the table.
Heavy bets on one side, while clearing the table on the other.
In this situation, every day you hold on, you pay interest for another day.
In the end, the first to break are often not the bulls, but those borrowing money to short.
Main point: even by doing nothing, they can still wear you down. Haha, impressive.