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The Fed's September rate decision lands Sept 16 at 18:00 UTC. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and HSBC have shifted to a 25bps hike; 86 of 101 economists in a Reuters survey agree, market pricing near 90%. If delivered, fed funds moves to 3.75%-4.00%. Key data: August PPI 5.4% YoY, CPI 0.4% MoM. Goldman sees this as the Fed avoiding a pricing reversal rather than reacting to worsening fundamentals. Trump remains opposed. If the Fed holds, how it explains the inflation-policy gap will be watched.
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On the eve of the Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes, the market is still betting on a dovish Powell
Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16 Eastern Time (September 17, 2:00 AM Beijing Time). According to data released last week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, higher than economists' expected 0.2%. The market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate hike at this meeting.
As of press time, the probabili
MARKET RESET — TWO SHOCKS AT ONCE
$BTC $75.68K, $ETH $2.40K, $SOL $97.13K. But this is more than just a pullback. The CLARITY Act just failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote, while markets await the FOMC decision on September 16.
With the regulatory catalyst weakening + the Fed becoming the key variable, capital may remain cautious. The question now isn’t “where is the bottom?” but “when will liquidity return?”
🚨 $BTC IS ENTERING THE FED DECISION WITH $75K IN FOCUS
Bitcoin is hovering around $75.8K after yesterday’s sharp sell-off, while markets are pricing roughly a 93% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike today.
The key issue is what the Fed says after the decision. A hawkish outlook could keep pressure on risk assets, while softer guidance could quickly change market positioning.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49
#AISafetyDebateEscalates
“CLARITY won’t pass, so $BTC will dump.”
“FOMC could hike rates, so BTC will dump even harder.”
But here’s the catch: markets price expectations before the headline arrives.
If traders are already positioning for bad news, the selling can happen before the event.
So when the actual headline drops, the market may already have absorbed much of the fear.
The real question isn’t just what happens next.
It’s whether the market has already priced it in.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #BTC
IBRAHIM1crypto
“The Clarity Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.”
“A rate hike is expected tomorrow with FOMC, so BTC is going to dump even more.”
Little do they know, the market has already priced in those expectations. That’s why it’s dumping BEFORE the news is released.
By the time the news gives the crowd a reason to sell, they are already selling into the very bids that mark the bottom.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49
Why did $BTC drop📉?
On September 15, Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000, reaching around $74,900–$75,560 before recovering above $76,000. It is now moving around the $75,500–$76,000 range.
The move was driven by several factors:
1. Fed rate-hike expectations increased macro pressure.
2. US Treasury yields climbed above 5%, tightening financial conditions and pushing investors toward safer assets.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49
#AISafetyDebateEscalates
Today's FOMC meeting is very important for the markets.
There's a 93% chance of a rate hike, so it's already priced in.
The market will be eager to know what the Fed thinks next.
If the Fed sounded like this rate hike was a one-time thing, I expect a good pump.
But if Warsh insists more on the Fed's 2% inflation target, the market will see this as a hint of more future hikes.
In that scenario, there'll be a dump across stocks, crypto, and even precious metals, while bond yields will surge.
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
🚨 Crypto has a big 48 hours ahead.
The U.S. Senate is scheduled to take a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act today, while the Federal Reserve's rate decision comes tomorrow.
That puts $BTC, $ETH and $SOL in an interesting position.
If the market gets regulatory clarity while liquidity expectations improve, risk appetite could change quickly.
But if the Fed stays hawkish, crypto could face another round of pressure.
This is why I'm not chasing candles right now.
There are real catalysts in front of us.
Let the market react first.
Then decide what the reaction is actually telling us.
The next move could be more interesting than the current one.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteStillDivided #US10YearYieldBreaks5%
The Fed decides on Wednesday.
A week out, @Polymarket and @Kalshi both put a 25bp hike at 55%. That is the closest an FOMC contract has come to a coin flip this late: across 27 settled decisions since 2023, the leading outcome at the same point had a median of 96% and never fell below 79%.
Even after August CPI landed on Friday morning, the 25bp hike odds moved from 57% to 80%, a major jump but still below the usual consensus.
Polymarket and Kalshi in one schema, with three years of settled
“The Clarity Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.”
“A rate hike is expected tomorrow with FOMC, so BTC is going to dump even more.”
Little do they know, the market has already priced in those expectations. That’s why it’s dumping BEFORE the news is released.
By the time the news gives the crowd a reason to sell, they are already selling into the very bids that mark the bottom.