#US10YearYieldBreaks5%

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced at 2:00 AM tonight. Will it be a waterfall drop? Or is it fully priced in? My view is as follows ↓ Currently, the probability of a rate hike is over 90% + US Treasury yields breaking 5%. The rate hike itself is no longer the focus; the key is the dot plot — Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank both expect a hawkish bias, and the dot plot may show two more hikes this year. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49

STOCKS RISE AS YIELDS RETREAT AHEAD OF FED Global stocks moved higher ahead of today’s Fed rate decision, with markets pricing more than a 90% chance of a 25bp hike. The S&P 500 gained 0.26% and Nasdaq 0.60%, while the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.963%. Oil also cooled, with Brent falling 2.4% to $106. Market angle: attention now shifts entirely to Kevin Warsh’s guidance on future hikes. $CL

#10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5% The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has surpassed 5.02%, reaching the highest level since 2007. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged again, standing above 5.02%, setting a new high since 2007, as the global bond market faces continuous sell-offs.

🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN MODERN U.S. HISTORY. In 2026, five separate economic thresholds were all hit within the same calendar year, for the first time in the data going back decades. The US 10-year Treasury yield traded above 5%. Gold hit a record $5,595.47 an ounce, back in January. Headline CPI inflation hit 3.4% through August, well above the Fed's 2% target. The 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7%, reaching 7.17%. WTI oil traded above $100. Every prior candidate year fails at least two of these five conditions. In 2008, oil, inflation, and gold all hit their marks, but the 10-year yield only reached 4.27%, and mortgage rates stayed under 7%. In 2011, oil, inflation, and gold hit, but rates and mortgages stayed low. In 2022, oil, inflation, and mortgage rates hit 7%, but the 10-year yield stayed under 5%, and gold set no new record that year. 2026 is the first year on record where all five conditions were met. These five events did not all happen at the same exact moment. Gold's record came in January. The rate and mortgage thresholds came in September. But all five happened within the same calendar year, and no prior year in the data matches that. Rising oil pushed inflation higher. The Dallas Fed's own research shows mortgage rates respond far more to the 10-year Treasury yield than to the Fed's own rate, an 85% response versus under 20%. So the same oil shock that pushed inflation up also pushed Treasury yields up, and that alone dragged mortgage rates over 7% at the same time gold investors were paying record prices for protection against exactly this kind of uncertainty.

In the past decade, Bitcoin told its story through the "halving cycle."\n\nIn the next decade, Bitcoin will tell its story through the "fiat credit collapse."\n\nAnd today,\n\nThe US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the last time was in 2007.\n\nThe Japanese 10-year government bond yield has broken 3%, the last time was in 1996.\n\nThe US and Japanese bond markets are handing the script directly to $BTC.\n\nThe question is: can you endure the darkest moment before dawn?

TODAY IS FED DAY. The Federal Reserve is making its latest interest-rate decision as markets deal with oil above $100, inflation concerns and Treasury yields that recently moved above 5%. Markets had been pricing a very high probability of a rate hike. For crypto, the question isn't simply whether rates move. It's what the Fed says about what's coming next. Bitcoin has already taken a hit from the failed CLARITY Act vote. Now monetary policy takes center stage. #OpenAI1.2TPreIPO

$BTC is facing a very different test this week. The Fed is expected to make its policy decision while oil prices have surged above $100 and Treasury yields have moved higher. That's not exactly the perfect environment for risk assets. And yet Bitcoin is still holding around the upper-$70K area. That's what I'm watching. Not whether someone predicts $80K or $70K. I want to see how BTC behaves when the macro environment becomes uncomfortable. If Bitcoin can absorb stronger yields, a stronger dollar and geopolitical pressure without completely losing its structure, that's meaningful. The reaction matters more than the headline. #US10YearYieldBreaks5% #RobinhoodTokenNewRights #US10YearYieldBreaks5%

5%, risk assets are facing a much tougher macro environment. ❌ No FOMO ❌ No revenge trades ❌ No oversized leverage ✅ Wait for BTC confirmation ✅ Keep dry powder ✅ Let the market show its hand first #BTC #ETHTests2500 #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.01% on Sept 14, crossing 5% for the first time since Oct 2023 and reaching its highest intraday level since July 2007. It started the year near 4.15%. Nine months later, that is about +86bps. The pressure is not from one source: · Oil above $100 is keeping energy-driven inflation pressure alive · Headline CPI held at 3.4%, while core rose 0.3% MoM · Markets now price around 89%-90% odds of a 25bps Fed hike on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023 if delivered · Treasury supply remains heavy, while AI-driven corporate debt issuance is competing for capital · The NY Fed's ACM term premium model is back in positive territory, meaning investors are demanding extra return to hold long-duration paper · Markets are also pricing a possible BoJ hike to 1.25% this week, while the ECB remains hawkish The whole curve is repricing: 30-year yields are around 5.35%, while the 2-year sits near 4.66%. At 5% risk-free, the calculus shifts. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage benchmark is at 6.76%. Equity models run with a higher discount rate. Corporate borrowing costs rise. Capital that once had to chase yield now has a simpler alternative. The interesting part is BTC. Around $77K-$78K today, it is roughly flat while equities fell. Gold also pulled back. That divergence is worth watching, but it still needs confirmation. The real event risk is not just the yield print. It is Wednesday's updated dot plot. June's median dot implied one hike for 2026. If September shows two, or if Chair Warsh signals higher-for-longer at the press conference, the 5% handle could get stickier. Is 5% a temporary pressure point for BTC, or the start of a new macro ceiling? #US10YearYieldBreaks5%

Why did $BTC drop📉? On September 15, Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000, reaching around $74,900–$75,560 before recovering above $76,000. It is now moving around the $75,500–$76,000 range. The move was driven by several factors: 1. Fed rate-hike expectations increased macro pressure. 2. US Treasury yields climbed above 5%, tightening financial conditions and pushing investors toward safer assets. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates