How wonderful everything would be if there were no US-Iran war! Does the visit of the CN leader to the US actually affect the US stock market? ┈➤ Probability of positive impact from the US visit In the 33 years since 1993, the CN leader has visited the US 9 times (excluding this time). From the chart, at least 5 times the S&P 500 showed relatively obvious fluctuations. So the CN leader's visit to the US does have an impact on the US stock market. Among them, only 2 times did the US stock market decline in the month following the visit. These were September 2000 and April 2006. The 2000 case was the bursting of the internet bubble, and in 2006, after a 2-month adjustment, the US stock market continued its upward trend. So simply put, the probability of the US stock market rising next month is relatively high. Of these visits, 7 occurred under Democratic presidents. Excluding this month's visit, only 2 were under Republican presidents. The CN leader visiting and meeting a Republican president may itself be positive for the US stock market. ┈➤ The risk lies in US-Iran relations We can look back to April 2006, when after the CN leader's visit, the US stock market declined for 2 months. At that time, with a Republican president and ongoing conflict between the US and Middle Eastern countries, Iran was experiencing armed rebellion and sectarian conflict within its borders. Currently, the issues brought by US-Iran relations, including the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and inflation, are more severe than in April 2006. ┈➤ In conclusion Brother Feng is relatively optimistic about the US stock market and currently holds a wait-and-see attitude toward crypto. One piece of good news is that the market cap of USDT has started to show a slight upward trend.

Find a new angle to support the view: the current market is not a bear market rebound ┈➤ The current market is different from May As shown: the upper pane is the altcoin market cap divided by the total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins, which is the altcoin ratio excluding stablecoins (hereinafter referred to as the altcoin ratio). The lower pane is BTC. In May this year, the altcoin ratio and BTC basically moved in opposite directions, meaning when BTC rose, altcoins barely followed. But now, it is clearly different from the bear market rebound in May. Overall, the altcoin ratio and BTC trend upwards synchronously, which means altcoins are starting to recover, and market sentiment and funds are developing in an optimistic direction. Therefore, the current market cannot be considered a rebound within a bear market. ┈➤ Focus on oil prices Brother Feng has always believed that the conditions for a bull market are insufficient, mainly due to uncertainties involving the US-Iran relationship, the Strait, and oil prices. Currently, there is a slight breakthrough in US-Iran relations, and Iran is becoming proactive. The next focus is on oil prices. Of course, US Treasury bonds also have an impact, as their expansion is too rapid. Today oil prices fell, but the 30-year US Treasury yield still rose significantly. It should be noted that short-term US Treasury yields also fell intraday, indicating that the rise in Treasury yields is not due to rate hike expectations but rather a relatively pessimistic long-term outlook on US Treasuries. Overall, Brother Feng's view: still cautiously expect volatility, altcoins are starting to activate but will fluctuate along with BTC.

Iran suddenly reverses, oil prices fall, market improves? Two days ago, Iran said it was not in a hurry to negotiate. Oil prices rose, US bonds fell, US stocks and crypto both declined. Could it be because of China's attitude? Today, two days later, Iran said it is willing to open the Strait within 7 days. Oil prices show a downward trend, but: Long-term US bonds, especially 30-year US bonds, yields are still rising. Nasdaq 100 and BTC currently appear somewhat hesitant.

Analyzing from multiple angles the repeated "bull market hasn't arrived" statement, there should be very few opponents now, right? Although there were several bullish views during this period, Brother Feng's judgment on the big trend has always been — unable to confirm a bull market, expecting consolidation. In fact, this wave of the market is essentially an upward demand after bear market suppression. Under this sentiment, the market is not sensitive to short-term negative news. Instead, it tends to overreact to positive news. Recently, the SEC exempted security tokens from on-chain trading, and the market unanimously regarded it as positive. Actually, security tokens have always been tradable on-chain. The SEC's so-called exemption is conditional: First, it requires operation by a U.S. entity. xStocks is not a U.S. company and does not meet the condition. Second, it requires AMM + liquidity, with permissioned access for participants. Uniswap does not meet the condition. Third, tokenized securities must grant holders equal rights, including dividends and voting rights. Most Ondo stock tokens also do not meet the condition. But the market just thinks it's positive for $ONDO and $UNI. Brother Feng has always classified negative news into "event-driven negatives" and "liquidity-driven negatives." Positive news is divided into "sentiment-driven positives" and "substantive positives." Currently, a large-scale "liquidity-driven negative" is unlikely because the U.S. economy and U.S. Treasury bonds cannot withstand frequent rate hikes, and MicroStrategy has already safely passed the danger period. However, there is no "substantive positive" in crypto at present. Therefore, Brother Feng conservatively believes this is a consolidation market, and the core of the consolidation trend is — oil prices.

Not a single short position was taken... Iran suddenly became tough again. I thought the market would be relatively peaceful during the China-US friendly period, but I forgot about Iran. Trump must be busy hosting, while Iran is unusually active. At one moment, they claim to have detonated missiles on a US aircraft carrier, and the next moment, they say Saudi Arabia was bombed. Then they threaten neighboring countries that if they cooperate with the US to stop Iranian navigation, their airports will not operate normally. The core point is that Iran emphasizes it is not in a hurry to negotiate; the Strait will only be open if Iran's conditions are met. The US Secretary of State said reaching an agreement with Iran requires hard work and time. Brent crude oil price returned to 101, US oil returned to 91. A series of chain reactions: The 10-year US Treasury yield returned to 5.069%, the 30-year US Treasury yield returned to 5.379%. Gold, the S&P, and BTC all fell together. One month ago, the market expected WTI oil prices to fluctuate between 70 and 80, but now expectations may need to change. WTI's top might be 100 or higher, the bottom is uncertain whether near 90. Whether it tops depends on Trump and whether he TACO, and whether it bottoms cannot ignore Iran, which seems not to want oil prices to fall.

What is meant to come will always come! DBR is pumping! Good projects never disappoint! Short-term chasing the rise is not recommended, but in the long term, DBR's potential lies in: Listed on Coinbase, but not on Binance or OKX. Listed on Bithumb, but not on Upbit. $DBR

The bearish voices suddenly appeared. Currently, Binance's funding rate is negative, and the liquidation heatmap shows higher value below. However, the funding rates on Coinbase and OKX are both positive. Coinbase's funding rate is 0.0014%, which is not low. So for now, I'm not too confident to open short positions. If it’s going to crash, it might first pump a bit. Coinbase spot depth chart shows there are 224 BTC sell orders below 88000, but there isn’t much concentrated placing here. It might not be too difficult to pull it up to around 88000. Between 88900 and 89000, there are about 110~120 BTC sell orders, so there is strong resistance here. Also, the big visit to the US seems to have some highlights; theoretically, it shouldn’t cause a drop. The last day of the visit might be ending soon, which could be Saturday Beijing time. Brother Feng placed short orders at 88200, 88500, 89000, and 90000, all with stop losses set. Let’s see if they get filled. Brother Feng’s trading skills are especially poor, especially with BTC and ETH contracts, he’s almost never made a profit, haha, so don’t mind me. But I suggest not opening shorts for now. Observe Coinbase’s funding rate and wait a couple more days before considering it.

Has the bull market really arrived? The divergence might be between the US and Asia #BTC surged to $87000, crypto total market cap returns to 3 trillion USDT market cap is decreasing, but USDC market cap is increasing, as shown in Figure 1 ┈➤USDC is very active, USDT is indifferent In April this year, USDC led the capital inflow, followed actively by USDT. But now, USDC's capital flow is very active, while USDT shows little reaction. As shown in Figure 2. In other words, the US side is bullish, but Asia seems to have little follow-up capital. ┈➤Has the bull market really arrived? This is one of the reasons why Brother Feng judges the market as ranging: there is no consensus on a bull market. So which is dominating, USDC or USDT? Brother Feng believes USDC's dominance is strengthening, but USDT cannot be ignored. After all, USDT's trading volume is more than 5 times that of USDC. Also, this is just spot trading volume; in the futures market, USDT's influence is much greater. Therefore, Brother Feng thinks we cannot conclude a bull market just because USDC's market cap is rising. Brother Feng's judgment is that after this bear market decline, the market has a rebound demand. Coupled with the low-frequency rate hike environment over the next year or so, and the subsequent expectation of rate cuts, there should be a small bull market similar to 2019. But before the small bull, observing USDT's current reaction and the US midterm elections, US-Iran relations, and oil prices, Brother Feng feels there will still be some twists and turns.