
看不懂的sol哥
看不懂的sol哥
2026机会多多
3Following
2.2Kfollowers
Feed
Feed
Characteristics of the Celestial Empire!!
A scammer was sentenced to 7 years in prison, and during his incarceration, 500,000 yuan mysteriously disappeared from his personal account, with some money even transferred to an Uncle Hat's WeChat account.
Today I saw a bizarre case: a man from Ruian, Zhejiang, was taken away by an Uncle Hat from a city in North China for allegedly committing campus loan fraud with his brother-in-law, and was later sentenced to 7 years. While the man was serving his sentence, 470,000 yuan in his Alipay, along with a total of 500,000 yuan in his WeChat and bank cards, were repeatedly transferred to more than a dozen accounts. Among them, 19,000 yuan was transferred to the WeChat account bound to an Uncle Hat in a city in North China.
The man was released at the end of last year, got a new SIM card, and when he opened his accounts, it was like the sky had fallen—only 6.43 yuan remained. So, the man reported to the police in Ruian, Zhejiang, and the local Uncle Hat was investigated for theft.
When this man was previously sentenced, he was fined 250,000 yuan and had 60,000 yuan of illegal gains confiscated. He has already paid over 60,000 yuan but still owes more than 240,000 yuan. The 500,000 yuan in his bank card should have been used to pay the fines, but now it has mysteriously vanished.
100 Banking Tips You Can Use for Deposits, Withdrawals, and Wealth Management.
1. Deposit insurance covers up to 500,000. In the same bank, if you deposit within 500,000, the state compensates you if the bank fails. Amounts over 500,000 are not guaranteed.
2. Large-denomination certificates of deposit offer higher interest than regular fixed deposits. The minimum deposit is usually 200,000, but the interest is significantly higher.
3. Early withdrawal from fixed deposits earns interest at the demand deposit rate. If you deposit for three years but withdraw after just over one year, the first year’s interest is lost.
4. Spread your deposits across several banks. Don’t put amounts over 500,000 all in one bank.
5. Automatic renewal may not be cost-effective. Auto-renewal at maturity might have a lower interest rate than new deposits.
6. Always keep a paper receipt or electronic voucher for deposits. Screenshots from mobile banking apps are not official proof.
7. Deposit interest rates are negotiable. For large deposits, especially millions and above, you can negotiate rates with the bank.
8. Small and medium banks usually offer higher rates than big banks. But confirm they have deposit insurance.
9. Structured deposits are not ordinary deposits. They are linked to financial derivatives, with fluctuating returns and possible losses.
10. Don’t just look at interest rates; consider the term. If you won’t need the money for three years, don’t put it in a demand deposit.
11. Don’t forget the fixed deposit maturity date. If you don’t withdraw on time, the excess period earns demand deposit interest.
12. Deposit certificates can be issued. Useful for going abroad, loans, and visas.
13. Dormant accounts will be cleared. Cards unused for a long time may have transaction restrictions or be closed.
14. One person can only have one primary account at a bank. Others are secondary or tertiary accounts.
15. Secondary accounts have limits. Daily transactions usually don’t exceed 10,000; annual limit is 200,000.
16. Large cash withdrawals require an appointment. For amounts over 50,000, notify the bank a day in advance.
17. ATM withdrawal limits apply. Usually 20,000 per day, varying by bank.
18. Cross-bank ATM withdrawals may incur fees. Some banks offer a few free withdrawals per month.
19. Out-of-area withdrawals may be charged. If the card issuing location differs from withdrawal location, fees may apply.
20. Check ATMs for abnormalities before withdrawing. Look for extra devices on the card slot or covered keypads.
21. Shield your PIN when entering it. Cameras may be watching.
22. Don’t count cash on the spot after withdrawal. Someone might be watching you.
23. Don’t panic if your card is swallowed. Call bank customer service and bring your ID to retrieve it at a branch.
24. Count your cash immediately after withdrawal. The bank won’t acknowledge discrepancies after you leave the counter.
25. Report counterfeit bills immediately. The bank is not responsible once you leave the counter.
26. Damaged bills can be exchanged. Torn or missing corner notes are exchanged according to standards.
27. Coins and small bills can be deposited. Banks cannot refuse them.
28. Large cash withdrawals will be questioned about purpose. Anti-money laundering regulations require banks to ask.
29. Don’t withdraw money for others, especially strangers. You might be involved in money laundering.
30. Don’t discard withdrawal receipts carelessly. They contain your personal information.
31. Verify account numbers and names before transferring. Recovering money sent to wrong accounts is difficult.
32. Choose between real-time, normal, or next-day transfers carefully. Real-time transfers cannot be reversed.
33. Large transfers require a USB security token or password device. SMS verification alone is not secure enough.
34. Don’t transfer money to strangers, no matter the reason they give.
35. Don’t scan strangers’ QR codes. You might be scanning a payment code that sends money immediately.
36. Don’t click links in SMS messages. Banks don’t ask for passwords via SMS links.
37. Transfer limits can be adjusted. If you find limits too low, visit a branch to increase them.
38. Cross-bank transfers may incur fees. Mobile banking is usually free; counters may charge.
39. Cross-border transfers require reporting. Foreign exchange controls mean you can’t transfer unlimited amounts at will.
40. Keep transfer receipts. They serve as evidence in disputes.
41. Don’t transfer money for others. You might be part of a money laundering chain.
42. Be cautious with late-night transfers. Scammers prefer to have you transfer money at night.
43. Don’t use public WiFi for transfers. Your information could be intercepted.
44. Confirm transfers by phone first. If the other party says they changed numbers, call the old number to verify.
45. If scammed, call bank customer service immediately. The sooner you call, the higher the chance of recovery.
46. Primary cards have the most functions. Secondary and tertiary cards have restrictions.
47. One person can only have one primary card at a bank.
48. Don’t lend your bank card to others. If something happens, you are responsible.
49. Don’t sell your bank card. Selling cards is a crime and aiding wrongdoing.
50. Report lost cards immediately. Call customer service; verbal reporting is effective.
51. To replace a lost card, bring your ID. Temporary ID is acceptable.
52. Don’t use birthdays as your card PIN. They are easy to guess.
53. Don’t tell anyone your card PIN, including bank staff.
54. Don’t keep your bank card and ID together. Losing both causes bigger problems.
55. Cancel cards you don’t use for a long time. Keeping them may incur annual or small account fees.
56. One person can get one small account fee waived per bank. Apply at the counter.
57. Bank cards have expiration dates. Replace them when expired.
58. Chip cards are safer than magnetic stripe cards. Magnetic stripes are easy to copy.
59. Don’t post your bank card details online. Card number, expiration date, and CVV must not be exposed.
60. Credit cards and debit cards are different. Credit cards borrow money; debit cards spend your own money.
61. Wealth management products are not principal-protected. Except deposits, all carry risks.
62. Yield rates are not guaranteed. The expected yield you see is the best-case scenario, not certain.
63. Check risk levels carefully. R1 to R5, higher numbers mean higher risk.
64. Don’t focus only on returns; consider risks. High returns always mean high risk.
65. Wealth management products have lock-up periods. You can’t withdraw during this time.
66. Wealth management is not a deposit. If the bank fails, wealth management products are not compensated.
67. Funds are not deposits. If funds lose value, your principal may be lost.
68. Insurance is not a deposit. You buy protection, not returns.
69. Don’t be fooled by the word "bank". Wealth management products sold by banks aren’t necessarily issued by the bank itself.
70. Check who issues the product. Is it bank self-operated or agency sales?
71. Don’t invest all your money in wealth management. Keep some in demand deposits for emergencies.
72. Diversify your investments. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
73. Don’t buy products you don’t understand. If you don’t understand it, don’t touch it.
74. Don’t buy just because a client manager recommends it. They have sales targets; you have principal risk.
75. Before buying, ask clearly: Can you withdraw early? What are the fees? What if you lose money?
76. For loans, look at the annualized interest rate, not the monthly rate. Multiply monthly rate by 12 for true cost.
77. Equal principal and interest and equal principal loans differ. Equal principal and interest means same monthly payment; equal principal means higher payments early on.
78. Early repayment may have penalties. Check the contract; don’t repay arbitrarily.
79. Mortgage loans are the cheapest money ordinary people can borrow. Don’t repay early unless you have excess funds.
80. Don’t click recklessly on credit loan offers. Each click adds a credit inquiry record.
81. Don’t guarantee loans for others. If they run away, the debt is yours.
82. Credit card installment actual interest rates are higher than you think. Fees look low but annualized rates are not.
83. Don’t frequently pay only the minimum amount. Interest starts accruing from the day of purchase.
84. Credit card overdue affects credit reports. Overdue records stay for five years.
85. You can check your credit report yourself. Twice a year free at the central bank credit center.
86. Banks won’t call to ask for your password. Calls asking for passwords are scams.
87. Banks won’t ask you to transfer money to a "safe account." No such thing exists.
88. Banks won’t ask you to upgrade via SMS links. Clicking leads to phishing sites.
89. Banks won’t ask you to share your screen. Screen sharing exposes all your passwords.
90. Banks won’t ask you to download unknown apps. You might download malware.
91. Don’t trust high-interest wealth management. You focus on interest; they focus on your principal.
92. Don’t trust products privately recommended by bank employees. They might be unauthorized sales; the bank won’t recognize them.
93. Don’t help others withdraw or transfer money. You might be part of money laundering.
94. Don’t rent or lend your bank card. It’s aiding crime and punishable by law.
95. If scammed, report to police immediately and call bank customer service. The sooner, the better chance of recovery.
96. Banks don’t handle large transactions after 4 PM. Go in the morning for business.
97. Banks work on weekends but with limited services. Corporate services are not available on weekends.
98. Banks can handle matters on your behalf but require authorization. Bring a power of attorney if helping family.
99. For complaints, call 12378. This is the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission’s complaint hotline, more effective than bank customer service.
100. Keeping money in banks is safest. But if you want your money to grow, investing in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is the most reliable way for ordinary people to change their financial fate.
Children from ordinary families have only one main focus in the first half of their lives: accumulating their own survival capital.
Don't waste your energy too early on love, face, emotions, and ineffective socializing.
For children from ordinary families, the most important thing is to quickly see the main line of your life clearly.
You need to know that the most important thing in the first half of your life is not to have a passionate love affair, not to make everyone respect you, not to maintain a seemingly decent life, and certainly not to waste a lot of time and energy on emotions and ineffective social interactions.
What you really should do, the true main line of your life, is only one thing: to accumulate your own survival capital.
What is survival capital?
Simply put, it is something that allows you, even if you encounter unemployment, illness, marital changes, or major financial problems in the future, not to fall into the abyss all at once.
For example, your abilities, education, professional knowledge, work experience, your earning capacity, your cash savings, your asset accumulation, your effective network, and so on.
And most importantly, your ability to start over again in this society.
These things are the real confidence for a child from an ordinary family.
What is the biggest difference between children from ordinary families and those from privileged families? It is that you have nothing to inherit from your original family.
You don't have a rich inheritance, a strong network, and your parents don't have the strength to help you solve problems with millions at any time.
Most things in your life have to be earned bit by bit by yourself.
So your life mission is different from those born into wealthy families from the very beginning.
Children from good families start enjoying the capital accumulated by their families at birth. Their life mission may be to live well, inherit the family wealth, and enjoy life.
But for children from ordinary families, the most important task in the first half of life is to accumulate their first bucket of capital.
In other words, while others can enjoy life in the first half, you must first establish your life.
This is also a common mistake many children from ordinary families often make.
Because information is so developed now, you can see everything through short videos and various channels. Many people from disadvantaged backgrounds see others' wonderful lives and envy them, so they start pursuing things from the latter half of life too early.
When they don't have a stable income or much money, they care too much about face and pursue high consumption. When they haven't accumulated any assets, they spend a lot of time on emotional entanglements and various ineffective social activities.
Their lives seem lively and bustling, but after a few years, only a mess is left behind. Their salary hasn't increased, their abilities haven't improved, their savings haven't grown, and they have no assets at all.
The only thing that has increased is their age.
This is the scariest thing for ordinary people—not that you haven't worked hard, you have worked very hard, even harder than others, but your efforts are in the wrong direction and haven't formed real accumulation.
The most precious thing for young people is not money, but time. If money is gone, you can earn it again; if you lose your job, you can find another; if your business fails, you can start over.
But once time passes, it never comes back.
Therefore, what people from ordinary families should do most when they are young is to invest all their time and energy as much as possible into things that can form long-term accumulation.
What are things that can form long-term accumulation?
For example, learning truly useful skills, choosing jobs that accumulate experience, training your earning ability, saving some money, building your influence, establishing your effective network and credit endorsements, and so on.
These are all slow but require long-term persistence.
You won't see much result in the short term, but after 5 or 10 years, you'll find they have become your greatest personal moat.
And those things without accumulation, even if you invest a lot of time and money, will leave no trace as time passes.
You play games every day and are very good at them, but ten years later, no one plays those games anymore, and they won't bring you anything;
you binge-watch shows and read news every day, but ten years later, these things are useless to you;
you hang out and eat with friends from the same low level every day, but these friends bring you no opportunities;
you have a deeply painful relationship for several years, but ten years later, it only leaves some memories and no meaningful significance.
However, if you learned a skill ten years ago, saved some money, entered a new industry, or started a side business, these things will definitely affect you for a lifetime and enhance the true depth and support of your life.
So where you put the money you save determines whether you are accumulating or just standing still.
The S&P 500, those 500 companies, represent the best batch of businesses in the United States. Buying a share means using your saved money to buy a small piece of the profits of these 500 companies.
They hire people globally, set prices, collect money, profits return to the index, and the index returns to your account.
During the hours you don't work, they are working for you.
This is the second level of leverage ordinary people can access.
The first level is your own time; the second level is the money you save.
This is the same principle you heard before. What kind of effort counts as accumulation is what can pass the test.
The S&P 500 changes companies every year; those who fall behind are kicked out, and new ones are added. You don't have to judge who will win; this mechanism does it for you.
If you hold on long enough, it will grow into the thickest asset in your hands.
Therefore, for ordinary people, the most important thing in life is not to make every day exciting and lively, but to leave something behind every day.
A person from an ordinary family should truly build their survival capital in the first half of life. You don't need to prove how happy, decent, well-connected, or how well you enjoy life you are.
Your true main line is to slowly transform yourself from a person without capital into a person with capital, using your best 10 or 20 years to complete your original capital accumulation.
When you have survival capital, then you can talk about love, life, ideals, and freedom. At that time, you will meet more and better people and things.
Afraid of missing out?
A friend asked me, with the future US stock market showing good trends, if there's a slight pullback now and you don't buy, what if you miss out?
Holding positions fears a drop, being out fears a rise—human nature.
The method isn't to argue whether the US stock market will fall.
When the trend is uncertain, you have to first accept the possibility of missing out.
What is risk?
Even if you make the right choice, you might not get the expected result. The market isn't a multiple-choice question; it's based on probabilities. Four scenarios with probabilities 5%, 10%, 25%, 60%. Betting on the largest one still leaves a 40% chance of being wrong. If the market moves along the low-probability path, it doesn't mean the choice was wrong—you just have to bear it.
Long-term rises and falls are also probabilities, determined by two things: how much profit companies make and how expensive the price is.
Currently, US stocks have rising profits, companies are buying back shares, and global capital is still flowing in. The value center is indeed rising.
But prices have run ahead of the center, so the position isn't low.
Therefore, mean reversion doesn't positively contribute to the probability of future gains.
Giving up a high probability for a low probability isn't worthwhile.
If it really goes that way, you just have to accept it.
What you can control is your position size.
Don't aim for being fully out or fully in; place it at a level acceptable at both ends.
If you're afraid of completely missing out, hold a portion.
Just block out the noise.
For me personally, the approach is to buy with spare money and add on dips.
Firmly believe that humanity will progress, fiat currency will depreciate, and holding long-term is enough.
Making money is essentially a game of money.
01
Brothers, have you ever felt this kind of frustration?
Waking up early and staying up late every day, squeezing into the subway, burning the midnight oil, getting scolded by the boss, being challenged by clients, and at the end of the month, after paying rent and deducting expenses for food and daily needs, your pockets are emptier than your face is clean.
You scrimp and save, not even daring to buy a cup of milk tea, but when you look at housing prices, you still feel like you won’t be able to afford a home even in your next life.
But on the other hand, some people seem to do nothing, drinking tea, chatting, playing golf every day, yet money seems to run into their pockets as if it had legs. You can’t figure it out: why?
The answer is actually very simple: making money has never been about hard work; making money is essentially a game of money.
Money is never "earned"; it’s "taken." Don’t misunderstand, this doesn’t mean committing crimes. Here, "taking" refers to the possession and allocation rights of resources.
Why did ancient emperors have money? Because "all under heaven belongs to the king," the entire land and population were theirs, and they could collect taxes at will, enough to support the imperial palace. This was the most primitive monopoly.
Why did ancient dynasties hold tightly to salt and iron monopolies? Because everyone needed salt, and iron was essential for farming. If you monopolize these two, you control pricing power. You set the price, and that’s not just making money; that’s printing money.
So, from ancient times to today, the core logic of making money hasn’t changed: whoever controls scarce resources controls the distribution of wealth. No matter how well you farm, even if one acre produces a thousand jin, the grain price is set by the market, by those who hoard grain. Your hard work for a year can’t compare to their profit from hoarding and selling.
This is the power of capital. What is the essence of capital?
It’s money that generates money, the power to mobilize resources, monopolize channels, and set rules.
In 2026, the society’s "salt and iron monopoly" has changed its disguise; it’s called "platforms" and "systems." Many think that driving for a ride-hailing service means working for yourself, but actually, you’re working for the platform. The platform monopolizes customers and sets commission rules; the more you run, the more the platform earns. Many think opening a store on an e-commerce platform means entrepreneurship, but it’s not. You’re paying rent to the platform. Traffic fees, promotion fees, commissions—layer upon layer of fees—at the end of the year, you find that the bulk of your profits go to the platform.
The platform is the "salt and iron merchant" of this new era. It builds a system, and everyone who wants to make money in this system must first pay a toll. This is systemic monopoly, even harsher than ancient salt and iron, because it’s everywhere, penetrating every corner of your life.
02
So, are ordinary people just destined to be exploited?
Actually, no.
The key is to learn to use "leverage." Archimedes said, "Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world." Making money is the same; you have to find your leverage.
What is leverage? Labor is leverage, capital is leverage, code is leverage, and traffic is even more leverage.
For example, if you run a small restaurant, cooking and serving yourself, you work hard all day to serve only dozens of people—that’s a sole proprietorship, no leverage. But if you run a franchise chain, letting others invest money and effort to open stores, collecting franchise fees and management fees, you’re using other people’s money and labor to make money—that’s leverage.
Or if you write code and develop software, the cost for one user is high, but for a hundred million users, the cost remains almost the same; marginal cost is nearly zero—that’s leverage.
Or traffic, which is the biggest leverage today. If you have an account with millions of followers, posting an ad can equal an ordinary person’s annual salary. Why? Because you amplify your influence millions of times through traffic leverage. This is the power of IP. You, your name, your face, your opinions—once you form an IP, it becomes an asset that can be infinitely replicated and amplified.
But leverage isn’t something everyone can use. You need "background," or in other words, you need a "ticket to enter."
In ancient times, to become an official, you needed family background and recommendations. It was hard for poor families to produce talented children because educational and social resources were monopolized by aristocratic families. Today is the same; to play with capital leverage, you need initial accumulation. To play with traffic leverage, you need content creation ability or capital to invest in traffic. An ordinary person without background, resources, or capital who tries to get something for nothing is most likely to be trapped.
So, the money game divides people into classes from birth. Some are born in Rome, with several houses at home, collecting rent enough for a lifetime of struggle. Some are born in the mud, with their family selling everything to support their education. You work hard to get into a top university, but after graduation, you find your finish line is someone else’s starting point. You earn 10,000 a month, but after rent and living expenses, only 3,000 remains. So, hard work in front of capital is sometimes a joke.
03
Does that mean ordinary people have no chance? They can only lie flat?
Of course not.
Although this game is unfair, it’s still a "game." Games have rules, and rules have loopholes, so there’s a chance to break through.
So recognize reality; don’t numb yourself with "hard work." No matter how hard you deliver food, you can’t beat the algorithm. No matter how hard you do manual labor, you won’t become a billionaire. You have to stop and think about what cards you hold and what leverage you can use. If you have nothing, at least you have time and attention. If you spend your time scrolling short videos, you’re just platform traffic, someone else’s leverage. If you spend your time learning a skill, writing an article, or making a video, you’re accumulating leverage for yourself.
You also need a "productivity" mindset. What is productivity? It’s how much value you can create. If you create 10,000 worth of value a month, and your boss pays you 5,000, he earns 5,000. If you want to earn more, either improve your ability to create value—create 100,000 worth of value a month, and your boss pays you 50,000—or you break away from the boss and create value directly in the market, keeping all the money yourself. The best are those who can organize a team and build a system that runs automatically, and you just take a cut. This is the leap from "worker" to "system builder."
Ultimately, the money game is about cognition. If you don’t understand it, you’re just played by the rules. If you do, you can use the rules or even change them.
In ancient times, there was a saying: "scholars, farmers, artisans, and merchants," with merchants ranked last. Why? Because rulers knew merchants were too smart; they played the money game and turned others’ money into their own. So they suppressed them. But did they succeed? No. Look at those great merchants—Lu Buwei, Shen Wansan, Hu Xueyan—weren’t they all fabulously wealthy? What did they rely on? Their understanding of the money game.
Today, it’s the same for you. You can choose to keep working for a fixed salary and live a stable life. Or you can choose to understand this game, build your own system, leverage, and amplify your productivity. There’s no right or wrong, only choice.
Don’t think of making money as too noble, nor too dirty. It’s just a game—a game about resources, power, and cognition.
In the end, this game is about cognition. If you don’t get it, you’re just played by the rules.
Most people can’t build a system in their lifetime. Starting a company requires people, money, and luck, and the failure rate is high.
But there is one thing ordinary people can do today.
If you can’t beat the platform, become a shareholder of the platform.
What’s inside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100? The companies you use every day, the platforms that take commissions, the systems that set rules. Buying an index fund means owning a small piece of these systems; the code is just a formality.
They work for you. While you’re at work, these companies are making money, setting prices, collecting rent globally. Profits flow back into the index, and the index flows back into your account.
This path requires no background, no connections, and you can start with just a few hundred dollars. You don’t need to judge which company will win. The index does the elimination—bad companies drop out, good companies get added.
It’s not exciting, nor fast. But it’s one of the few leverages ordinary people can buy, and it’s leverage on your side.
The game continues. You can choose not to play, but as long as you live in this society, you’re already in the game.
Rather than passively taking hits, study the rules. Even if you only have a bad hand, find a way to play it well.
Because in this game, no one will pay for your life except yourself.
Why do I recommend US stocks instead of A-shares!!
The index rose 18%, but retail investors lost an average of 23.6%
In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.41%, and the CSI 300 rose 17.66%.
In the same year, the average return for A-share retail investors was -23.6%, with an average loss of 21,000 yuan per person.
The index is rising, but accounts are losing money — both things are true at the same time.
Let's talk about the people first.
The overall profit ratio for retail investors is 18.9%, and the loss ratio is 81.1%.
Breaking down the data for you guys makes it clearer.
Accounts under 10,000 yuan, profit 0.1%, one out of a thousand.
Capital between 10,000 and 100,000 yuan, profit 1.3%.
Capital between 100,000 and 500,000 yuan, profit 15%.
Capital over 500,000 yuan, profit 58.6%.
Capital over 1 million yuan, profit exceeds 90%.
All people with less than 500,000 yuan combined, 4.72% profit.
My personal view is that this is not a matter of skill.
Similar people, in a different market, would have completely different ratios.
01) This is a pool where the water is drained faster than it is replenished.
In the first half of 2026, major shareholders reduced holdings by 489.4 billion yuan, already exceeding the entire 2025.
From April to May, over 500 companies disclosed reduction plans, with a proposed reduction cap exceeding 100 billion yuan.
Dividends during the same period were 924.5 billion yuan, indeed more than the reductions.
So you can't say this market only drains without replenishing.
But the rhythm is uneven: dividends are once a year, reductions can be announced anytime, often chosen at high stock prices.
02) Regarding dividends, short-term holding results in losses.
Dividends require ex-rights adjustment; stock price is adjusted down by the dividend amount, so market value decreases while cash increases — essentially a one-in-one-out.
But if holding is less than one month, dividend tax is 20%; between one month and one year, 10%; over one year, exempt.
For the same dividend, those holding for over a year get the full amount, while short-term holders lose 20%. This rule is in the Finance and Taxation [2015] No. 101 document, intended to encourage long-term holding.
03) Costs are charged per transaction, returns are annualized.
People with monthly turnover rates over 300% pay 6% to 8% of their returns in transaction costs annually. Commissions plus stamp duty per trade are not much alone, but add up to more than many people's annualized returns.
Given this environment, the only variables you can control are what to buy and how long to hold.
The data supports this.
Holding for over a year, profit probability is 41.2%.
Three to six months, 18.7%.
Less than one month, 9.3%.
In a market charging per transaction, trying to win by increasing frequency is the wrong direction from the start.
My own approach is simple. Don't touch what you don't understand, no leverage, no full positions in one stock, calmly hold US stock index funds, and hold long-term if the buying rationale stands, unless it's emergency money needed.
Sorry, I added a bit more position
In 30 years, there were 24 drawdowns. What should you do when the market drops 10%?
The Nasdaq 100 from June 6, 1996, to October 16, 2026, spans 7,819 trading days, with 24 periods where the drawdown exceeded 10%.
On average, it happens once every 15 months.
Out of these 24 times, 18 times it didn’t drop to 20%, which is three-quarters of the cases.
If you set your rule to only enter after a 20% drop, three-quarters of the opportunities would be missed because the market rebounded halfway.
How fast was the rebound?
Out of the 24 times, 22 times it took less than 252 trading days from the first drop below 10% to reach a new high again, with a median of 36.5 trading days, roughly seven weeks.
The only exception was the 2000 cycle. The peak was on March 27, 2000, at 4705 points, dropped to 804.6 points on October 7, 2002, a decline of 82.9%, and only recovered by November 3, 2015.
Looking at buying after the drop:
If you bought at the close on the first day the drawdown broke 10%, there were 24 opportunities in 30 years, with 22 having a full year to observe.
Holding for one year, 18 times you made a profit, a win rate of 81.8%, with a median return of 27.5%.
Buying randomly on any day during the same period had a win rate of 80.4%, with a median return of 18.0%.
The win rates are almost indistinguishable, 81.8% vs. 80.4%. The real difference is in how much you earn, a 9.5 percentage point gap.
But brothers, here’s a cold splash of water.
Extend the time frame, and the advantage flips.
Over three years, the win rate for buying after a drawdown is 65.0%, while random buying is 82.7%.
Over five years, 57.9% vs. 82.6%.
The longer you hold, the worse buying after a drawdown performs.
The reason lies in the distribution of signals.
Out of the 24 times, 11 clustered between 1996 and 2000, which was a bubble period.
The worst case was April 3, 2000, closing at 4077 points, bought after a 10% drop, and still down 75.5% three years later.
So brothers, the only discipline you can rely on is this:
A drawdown alone is not a reason to buy; a drawdown combined with valuation not in a bubble zone is.
If you’re holding long-term, why add a bit more position during a pullback?
After hours, I added $50,000 more to Nasdaq 100..
Sorry, I added a bit more position
In 30 years, there were 24 drawdowns. What should you do when the market drops 10%?
The Nasdaq 100 from June 6, 1996, to October 16, 2026, spans 7,819 trading days, with 24 periods where the drawdown exceeded 10%.
On average, it happens once every 15 months.
Out of these 24 times, 18 times it didn’t drop to 20%, which is three-quarters of the cases.
If you set your rule to only enter after a 20% drop, three-quarters of the opportunities would be missed because the market rebounded halfway.
How fast was the rebound?
Out of the 24 times, 22 times it took less than 252 trading days from the first drop below 10% to reach a new high again, with a median of 36.5 trading days, roughly seven weeks.
The only exception was the 2000 cycle. The peak was on March 27, 2000, at 4705 points, dropped to 804.6 points on October 7, 2002, a decline of 82.9%, and only recovered by November 3, 2015.
Looking at buying after the drop:
If you bought at the close on the first day the drawdown broke 10%, there were 24 opportunities in 30 years, with 22 having a full year to observe.
Holding for one year, 18 times you made a profit, a win rate of 81.8%, with a median return of 27.5%.
Buying randomly on any day during the same period had a win rate of 80.4%, with a median return of 18.0%.
The win rates are almost indistinguishable, 81.8% vs. 80.4%. The real difference is in how much you earn, a 9.5 percentage point gap.
But brothers, here’s a cold splash of water.
Extend the time frame, and the advantage flips.
Over three years, the win rate for buying after a drawdown is 65.0%, while random buying is 82.7%.
Over five years, 57.9% vs. 82.6%.
The longer you hold, the worse buying after a drawdown performs.
The reason lies in the distribution of signals.
Out of the 24 times, 11 clustered between 1996 and 2000, which was a bubble period.
The worst case was April 3, 2000, closing at 4077 points, bought after a 10% drop, and still down 75.5% three years later.
So brothers, the only discipline you can rely on is this:
A drawdown alone is not a reason to buy; a drawdown combined with valuation not in a bubble zone is.
If you’re holding long-term, why add a bit more position during a pullback?
After hours, I added $50,000 more to Nasdaq 100..
100 Iron Rules for Making Money Summarized by the Top 10 Richest People, Every Sentence Full of Experience.
1. Jack Ma
1. Today is cruel, tomorrow is even crueler, the day after tomorrow is beautiful, but most people die tomorrow night. The place where you fall is just one night away from dawn.
2. You should still have dreams, what if they come true.
3. Being deceived is not because others are too cunning, but because you are too greedy.
4. Others can copy my model, but cannot copy my hardships.
5. I have never touched money, I am not interested in money. When money is not the goal, it will flow to you.
6. Free is the most expensive thing in the world.
7. Do not carry hatred in competition; hatred will surely lead to failure.
8. Customers first, employees second, shareholders third.
9. If you read many books but don’t know how to summarize from them, you just have a pile of waste paper.
10. Never compare luck with others. I never thought I was luckier than others; maybe I have more perseverance. When they can’t endure the hardest times, I can endure one or two more seconds.
2. Pony Ma
11. When a giant falls, its body temperature is still warm.
12. In the internet era, competition results are often decided within a few months.
13. When making products, think like a novice user, not like a professional.
14. If you feel nothing has changed in one or two years, you are in danger.
15. Resources are limited; you must focus.
16. Don’t try to please everyone; just make a small group very satisfied.
17. When you are slightly better than others, they envy you; when you are much better, they only look up to you.
18. Entrepreneurship is discovering a huge problem and then solving it.
19. Information is the source of power. The more you know, the more choices you have.
20. Excessive responsibility can crush a person; let go when it’s time.
3. Wang Jianlin
21. Forget Tsinghua and Peking University; courage is more important.
22. Set a small goal first: earn 100 million.
23. Even if the Yellow River is tough, I will build a bridge and cross it.
24. Being big is not skill; standing firm and going far is skill.
25. Wealth comes from taking risks; dare to venture and act to succeed.
26. Tsinghua and Peking University are less important than courage, but courage is less important than carefulness.
27. The core of entrepreneurial spirit is innovation and risk-taking.
28. To succeed, you must have faster reaction speed than others.
29. Don’t fear failure; fear is not being able to stand up after failing.
30. Running a business means constantly solving problems; problems are normal.
4. Zong Qinghou
31. I think entrepreneurs need these qualities: poet’s imagination, scientist’s acuity, philosopher’s mind, strategist’s skill.
32. There is no weak market, only weak products.
33. Entrepreneurs must not only know how to make money but also how to save money.
34. Running a business is a marathon, not a 100-meter sprint.
35. I have done only one thing in my life: making a bottle of water to perfection.
36. Don’t follow others just because they make money; see what you can do.
37. Brands are built, not bragged about.
38. If a company doesn’t innovate, death is near.
39. Management is managing people; managing people is managing hearts.
40. Hard work and endurance are basic skills; without them, nothing can be achieved.
5. Zhong Shanshan
41. A good product doesn’t need flashy marketing.
42. Running a business is not for investors but for consumers.
43. I don’t like to join the crowd; I like to do what others don’t want to do.
44. The value of a brand is the sum of consumer trust.
45. Slow is fast; less is more.
46. The core of business operation is the product; the core of the product is quality.
47. Don’t chase trends; when the trend passes, those chasing it fall.
48. A truly good business is one consumers can’t live without once they use it.
49. Entrepreneurs must endure loneliness and resist temptation.
50. If you do one thing to the extreme, the market will naturally come to you.
6. Huang Zheng
51. Consumption upgrade is not about Shanghai people living like Parisians, but about people in Anqing, Anhui having kitchen paper.
52. Cheap doesn’t mean low quality; cheap means reducing costs and benefiting consumers.
53. The essence of business is letting people get a good deal.
54. Don’t compare intelligence with others; compare who can better satisfy users.
55. Being honest means doing what you should and not taking advantage of others.
56. Entrepreneurship is jumping off a cliff and assembling a plane on the way down.
57. Business competition ultimately is competition of efficiency.
58. You don’t need to do everything; just do the most important things.
59. User needs are always simpler than you imagine.
60. Don’t try to educate users; adapt to their habits.
7. Zhang Yiming
61. Delayed gratification means you’ve won half of your life.
62. Don’t try to please everyone; just make a small group very satisfied.
63. Entrepreneurship is discovering a huge problem and solving it. The bigger the problem you solve, the more money you make.
64. Excessive responsibility can crush a person; let go when it’s time.
65. Information is the source of power. The more you know, the more choices you have.
66. When you are much better than others, they only look up to you.
67. When making products, think like a novice user.
68. Resources are limited; you must focus.
69. If you feel nothing has changed in one or two years, you are in danger.
70. Delayed gratification is not about not enjoying, but saving the best for last.
8. Lei Jun
71. Standing at the wind’s mouth, even pigs can fly.
72. Take life and death lightly; if you don’t accept it, fight.
73. The best investment is investing in yourself.
74. After enduring the despair valley, you become invincible.
75. No success comes without risk. Face risks head-on and go all out.
76. Finding people is not three visits to the thatched cottage, but thirty visits.
77. Don’t cover strategic laziness with tactical diligence.
78. Focus, excellence, reputation, speed—these seven words are my internet mantra.
79. You don’t need to compare with others; just be better than yourself yesterday.
80. Making products requires craftsmanship spirit; perfect every detail.
9. Li Ka-shing
81. If you want an ordinary life, you will face ordinary setbacks. If you want the best life, you will face the strongest hurts.
82. When you put aside pride to make money, it means you have grown up.
83. Clear thinking is far more important than hard work.
84. The hardest time is the closest to success.
85. Don’t miss the last penny.
86. Always leave room; don’t do things absolutely.
87. Building a personal brand is the greatest asset.
88. Stay low-key, don’t show off or brag.
89. Learning to spend money is more important than learning to make money.
90. Integrity is the greatest wealth.
10. Liu Qiangdong
91. Quality is the lifeline of e-commerce.
92. User experience is the core competitiveness of business.
93. Logistics is the last mile of e-commerce and the most critical mile.
94. Don’t compare prices with others; compare value.
95. The success of any business model ultimately comes down to cost and efficiency.
96. If you treat users well, users will treat you well.
97. The most important thing in entrepreneurship is the team; the most important thing in the team is trust.
98. Hard work is a basic skill; without it, nothing can be achieved.
99. Don’t make money just for money; make money to create value.
100. As long as what you do is right, persist, and you will surely win.
Can't help but admire, topping up stock positions until becoming chairman, that's exactly Wang Xin.
In 2018, he entered the market and added positions around 6 yuan with 65 million invested,
When the stock price dropped to 4 yuan and 1.25 yuan, he kept topping up continuously,
Diluting all the way, with an average cost of about 4.55 yuan per share.
Just buying stocks on the secondary market, he spent a total of 228 million yuan.
The more he topped up, the more trapped he got,
In the end, he decided to go all in,
Taking out another 315 million yuan to acquire equity,
Directly gaining control,
And becoming the company's chairman.
Others top up to recover and run, but he invested more and more, transforming from an ordinary retail investor into a company leader, making it a legendary case in the A-share market.

