Tonight's review Tuesday, October 20 First, let's talk about the market BTC touched around 83,000 intraday today but didn't hold, then returned to around 81,500 by evening. It dropped about 1% in 24 hours. ETH is around 2,400, quieter than BTC. The Fear and Greed Index is 55, down from 59 previously. The data reflects the general level in the evening session, not a strict closing price. It's like mustering the courage to approach her, only to say "What a coincidence," then each goes home. The reasons for the drop are not complicated. First, institutions are not very enthusiastic. Last week, spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $230 million; the week before that was about $680 million. Big money is like a blind date—saying "let's see" but their steps are honest. Second, perpetual contract sell orders are dominating. According to on-chain data provider Glassnode, futures are setting the pace. Buying downside protection in options has also become more expensive, indicating that while everyone verbally stays calm, they are buying insurance. Third, macro conditions haven't eased. September CPI was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 5%. Brent crude oil is near $110. The Fed meeting at the end of October has the market expecting no change but worrying about a rate hike in December. Dating in a high-interest environment means no matter how sweet, you have to watch out for the lid flying off the pot. The good news is US stocks rebounded last night; the Nasdaq rose just over 1%, and semiconductors ended an eight-day losing streak. The crypto market didn't follow the big drop today, showing some resilience. Also, the SEC's crypto rule public comment period ends today. The CFTC and CME are still wrestling over perpetual contracts. These are slow variables—positive but won't be realized tonight

The recent Bitcoin is like a relationship entering a cooling-off period. After falling for two consecutive weeks, on Monday (October 19), it finally returned to around $82,700, rising 0.8%. China's GDP exceeded expectations, Nasdaq futures warmed up, and oil prices dropped. The external environment gave some support, but if you look closely, institutions are a bit indifferent. Last week, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $229 million, with BlackRock's IBIT outflowing about $165 million. It's like your partner replying from instant to next-day messages—not that they don't love you anymore, but they're reassessing. On the other hand, Strategy dropped more than 9% last Friday due to MSCI-related news, but Saylor still bought 267 more Bitcoins. This guy is the type who keeps bringing breakfast every morning even after being rejected. You can say he's obsessed or say he's loyal. My observation is that the key now is not emotion but position. Around $82,000 is the current battleground; $85,000 is the resistance that wasn't pushed through last week; going higher, $87,500 is the September high. Before breaking above $85,000, it feels more like grinding in a range rather than the start of a new rally. This week, there are also Meta and Tesla earnings reports, PMI, initial jobless claims, and other macro data. The mood of tech stocks will likely directly affect the crypto market sentiment. So my attitude is simple: during the cooling-off period, don't rush to confess, nor rush to block. Leave room in your position, watch the data rhythm, and wait for the day ETF funds start flowing back instantly before talking about the future. The above is just personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Data as of October 19.

Tonight's review Monday, October 19 First, let's talk about the market BTC fluctuated between 80,700 and 83,000 today, settling around 82,000 in the evening ETH ranged from 2,360 to 2,440, even less lively than BTC The daily rise and fall were small, like a blind date saying "let's see" Enthusiasm is there but no commitment The bears haven't been idle either Last night someone opened a short position of 13,830 ETH at 2,366 This morning, when it rebounded to 2,409, part of it was forcibly liquidated The remaining liquidation price is at 2,419 Data comes from on-chain monitoring I haven't verified every trade but this story repeats every month Leverage is like a cheat code when right, but like an ex taking everything when wrong It takes all from you The reason for the price fluctuations is actually not within the crypto circle Last week, the Nasdaq dropped 4.5% The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for 8 consecutive days, the longest since 2008 Jensen Huang said "This too shall pass" Everyone understands the logic but still opens the market app Just like on the third day after a breakup, your friend says it will get better but you still check their social media at 2 a.m. Plus, September CPI was 3.7% The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September Most likely no change on October 28 But there are still talks of rate hikes in December The ceiling over risk assets remains Also, last week BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $230 million, ETH even more Institutions are also watching There's another detail A BTC long stop loss didn't trigger After losing, they turned to go long on US stocks Crypto and stocks are now tied together To watch crypto, you have to watch the Nasdaq first

Today is October 19, the anniversary of Black Monday. Wall Street every year on this day feels a bit like an ex's birthday — clearly it's long gone, but when the day comes, you can't help but feel uneasy. Over the weekend, tokenized AI stock contracts experienced a wave of liquidation first. Oil prices are high, US Treasury yields are also rising. BTC and ETH dipped down but then pulled back. According to this morning's data, BTC is hovering around 82,000, ETH has returned above 2,400, with a total market cap of about 2.785 trillion. A slight 1.4% drop in 24 hours. What’s really worth watching is the structure. The 10x Research weekly report says that among the 141 tokens they track, the average drop last week was 14%, while BTC only fell 3%. It's like dating: when things are calm, everyone thinks the new acquaintance is more interesting; but when there's a fight, you find out who actually replies to your messages. It's a normal risk-averse instinct for funds to shrink towards BTC in uncertain times. On the other hand, we need to look calmly: ETFs have net outflows, stablecoin supply is contracting, liquidity is indeed tight. But among the 164 analysts tracked by CryptoQuant, 84% are still bullish. So now it feels more like a cooling-off period, not a breakup. This week's calendar is quite full: today is China's Q3 GDP, followed by US housing data, initial jobless claims, PMI, all leading up to the Fed rate decision on October 28. These data points will gradually change the market's expectations for rate cuts. My observation is simple: during a volatile period, don't rush to prove yourself. Comfortable position sizing is more important than being right. Altcoins can be held.

Third day after the breakup, my best friend said it will all pass, and you believed it. Then at 2 a.m., you were still scrolling through his Moments. Last Friday, chip stocks were in this state. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for 8 consecutive days, the longest since 2008. The Nasdaq dropped 2.1% in a single day and 4.48% over the week. CoreWeave plunged 11.9% in one day. Jensen Huang said to Bloomberg in Berlin, "All of this is going to pass." Everyone understands the principle, but your hand still opens the market app. My observation is this: right now, the emotional bottom and the fundamental bottom are clashing. On the fundamentals side, Dell's CEO said the memory shortage is a 4-year problem because building factories takes 4 years. The storage cycle doesn't turn around easily. On the emotional side, the VIX reached 19.99, the highest since late July. The Fed just finished raising rates in September, and expectations for a December hike remain. The ceiling over risk assets hasn't moved. This morning's market: BTC 81682, ETH 2390, both very calm. The crypto world these days feels more like a bystander. All data above is from this morning. So my attitude is simple: emotions will pass, but you need to plan your positions in advance. Don't wait until someone says "it will all pass" to start thinking. You can listen to what your ex says, but you have to write your own stop-loss line. No calls to bottom-fish, no calls to flee. Peace. Are you someone who has already unfollowed your ex, or are you still scrolling through their Moments at midnight? #JensenHuang #ChipStocks #BTC #USStockMarket #Macro #Trading