Orbit: Crypto Community Feed

A few days ago, I said Elon Musk was going to sell the Tesla Shanghai factory, and the comment section said it was all debunked. That's because you don't understand Musk; his denials are even more genuine than confirmations 😂 In-depth analysis: Why Tesla Shanghai won't be sold, and why Musk can't achieve a closed loop from chips to satellites, from ground to space? On August 6, SpaceX and Tesla jointly announced the construction of a super chip factory. One of these companies has US defense contracts, and the other is a giant with 45% of global production based in Shanghai. A military aerospace company that completely excludes Chinese factors is going to deeply bind with an automaker that owns the largest single factory in China. The security reviews between the two countries can delay or kill the project. There are also three actions that are more sincere than words: First, restricting Chinese employees' access to global data. According to multiple media reports, Tesla may be separating the office systems of China and the US businesses, restricting Chinese employees from directly accessing business data and systems in other regions. Second, initiating supply chain relocation; SpaceX is completely excluding Chinese factors from its global supply chain. Third, Tesla invested $2 billion to purchase SpaceX shares. In March this year, Tesla spent $2 billion to buy SpaceX shares. Although the stake is less than 1%, the significance of this transaction lies not in the shareholding ratio but in the upgrade from business cooperation to capital connection between the two companies. So these two companies are not only deeply cooperating in business but may even merge in the future. Musk's response to the merger question was that it is not suitable to discuss on a conference call and must follow proper procedures. This is not a denial; it is not a denial. The Shanghai factory is too important, which is why it is even more dangerous. In the first half of 2026, the Shanghai factory will deliver nearly 468,000 vehicles, accounting for more than 54% of global production. Such an important asset, how could Tesla possibly give it up? But on the other hand, precisely because the Shanghai factory is so important and deeply connected to the Chinese supply chain, it becomes more sensitive in the context of Tesla and SpaceX integration. The larger the Shanghai factory, the higher the future cost of separation, and the "institutional distance" that must be maintained between it and sensitive businesses like SpaceX must also be greater. Musk's chip empire blueprint is clear and grand: use Terafab to achieve high-end chip self-supply, use SpaceX's military orders and Starlink network to build space AI infrastructure, and use Tesla's autonomous driving and robots to consume computing power. This is a closed loop from chips to satellites, from ground to space. But this closed loop has one premise: it must pass US national security review.