Crypto_猫哥(BTC版）
Crypto_猫哥(BTC版）
推特同名@Crypto_猫哥 币圈八年老韭菜 全世界最全的、最详细的BTC行情分析 点点关注、关注必回
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$BTC
Brothers, you can interact more under my posts
Then join the group I pinned
Those who interact will get red envelopes
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$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Conclusion first
We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30%
Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB
If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP
Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation
I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back
Let's all get rich together
$BTC
Many people may not know that when the last Bitcoin bull market started
The interest rate at that time: 4.0
The unemployment rate at that time: 3.6
The CPI at that time: 7.1
The 2023 Bitcoin bull market has completely risen despite the interest rate hikes. When the bull market was halfway through, the interest rate peaked at 5.5, and at the end of the bull market, the interest rate was still at 4.5. The CPI data from the last round was not much lower than it is now.
So, to put it simply
Will there be another wave of bull market driven by interest rate hikes?
$BTC
BTC has been in a correction for a week now.
Focus on 86380; if it can break through and hold above this level without falling below 85000 afterward, then the 87395-82563 range represents the entire adjustment, which targets the red upward segment shown in the chart. Under this scenario, a new high above 87395 is expected soon.
If it fails to break through 86380 for a long time, then the movement starting from 82563 is only a rebound against the 87395-82563 decline. In this case, Bitcoin remains in an adjustment phase.
The reaction at the lower observation point between 79800-80000 is key to determining whether the correction targets the red segment or the entire 57800-87395 range.
$BTC
From the perspective of the major trend, BTC has a clear support level at 72-74k, another support at 76k, and a support zone at 79-82k.
The 72-74k range has historically been a point where the major trend has repeatedly fallen to, serving as a pivot for declines or rallies.
The 76k level has been tested multiple times during this rally, so the buying pressure here is strong.
The 79-82k range has also been tested many times in the past.
More specifically, the top of this rally is at 87k. If it falls to the following three levels, the respective drawdowns are:
- 72-74k: a drop to 72k represents an 18% decline, to 74k a 15% decline
- 76k: a 13% decline
- 79-82k: a drop to 79k is a 9.5% decline, to 82k a 6% decline
Learning from history, let's look at the drawdowns during previous bull market beginnings:
In February, April, and July 2023, there were pullbacks of around 20%
Chicken cutting is still the same
Old projects can't get going, just mapping
Mapping, then digging a bit more and playing dead
JK
If Binance Square and @fomo display tipping rankings, it would be more interesting than @XMoney, and the recipients of donations should be people in the trenches, not world-renowned celebrities who will never acknowledge the source of funds.
I think @mamebnb can do something about this, saving the injured in the trenches is the way to Save Meme Culture.
What do you think?
$BTC
From the perspective of chip structure, the range with the most significant changes in the past week is $83,000 - $84,000. From 9/22 to 9/29, in just 7 days, nearly 400,000 BTC were accumulated.
Such a large concentration of chip turnover in such a short time indicates that this is the area with the most severe market divergence in the short term.
Interestingly, the chips accumulated at $62,000 - $63,000 initially barely participated in this long-short game, only decreasing by a mere 30,000.
This shows that the main force that spent a full 6 months accumulating here is truly not playing short-term.
In other words, out of the 400,000 newly added in the 83k-84k range, 370,000 came from other price ranges. This frames my two expectations for the future:
1. Don’t fantasize about the former 62-63 range; it’s very likely not coming back.
2. There is divergence at 83-84, but there is also support.
Even if it eventually breaks through, as long as it doesn’t fall sharply, a large amount of liquidity is effectively locked here in the short term, creating a strong "gravity" that will "pull" the price back.
$BTC
$ETH
ETH is still leaning bullish at the moment.
Since the start from 2380–2400, the price has been moving within an ascending channel. Although there was obvious selling pressure when it surged to 2760–2780, the pullback near 2640 was quickly supported, and the structure of higher lows remains intact.
So, I tend to believe:
This is a high-level digestion after the rise, not the end of the trend.
Next, focus on two key levels.
2640–2660: Short-term defense
This is close to the 4H ascending trendline. If it holds, we continue to watch 2720 and 2775–2800; if it breaks down effectively and fails to recover on a rebound, I will lower my short-term bullish expectations.
2775–2800: The real breakout zone
Previous highs, the upper channel boundary, and the supply zone basically overlap here.
If it doesn’t break through here, ETH will likely continue to oscillate within the channel; once it breaks out with volume and holds, it means the upside space is further opened.
As for 2380–2400, it is the core support of this 4H upward structure and the level where I judge whether the trend is truly broken.
My offensive strategy is simple:
The trend is bullish, so I don’t chase in the middle.
Look for confirmation on the pullback at 2640–2660, and take the right side on a breakout above 2800.
As long as the lows keep rising, there’s no need to guess the top prematurely.
If 2800 doesn’t break, continue to consolidate;
If 2800 holds, then look for the next move.
$BTC
Short on rebound resistance, long on pullback support
BTC closed with an upper and lower shadow and a real bearish candle this morning, with bulls and bears battling back and forth
BTC is suppressed by the trendline, rebound is weak, and it is in a descending triangle structure
Effective support at 8.17 below; buying support is expected on pullback here, providing some support
Resistance at 8.37 above resonates with the trendline at two points, strong selling pressure at resistance; rebound can be shorted
Light position short ambush at 8.37 on the left side, stop loss at 8.52, targets near 8.22 and 8.17
Light position low leverage long ambush at 8.17 on the left side, stop loss at 8.05, targets near 8.29 and 8.37
So far, 136,115 people have been liquidated across the entire network in 24H, with a total amount as high as 547 million USD; long positions liquidated up to 444 million, short positions 103 million, mainly long positions liquidated
BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows so far, Grayscale net outflow of 274.77 coins, Fidelity 129.1 coins $BTC
$BTC
In terms of data, the scale of long liquidations far exceeds that of shorts.
In the most recent drop, out of the $504 million liquidations across the network, longs accounted for $359 million, while shorts only made up $145 million.
The imbalance ratio within one hour reached 3049%, meaning longs were liquidated at a speed 30 times that of shorts.
This number looks scary, but essentially it’s because too many leveraged long positions were piled up near 87,000 previously, and when the price pulled back, it triggered a chain reaction.
This is not a trend reversal; it’s just that the positions were too crowded.
$BTC
Key watershed at 8W28 exactly. Currently, there are two scenarios and trading ideas:
1) The first is that the market maker will firmly defend this position, understood as a breakout range retest.
If the 4H candle closes above 8W28, you can try going long.
Set a hard stop loss at 82600; if it breaks below, you must exit.
If it holds, continue to test 8W43, 8W54, 8W69 upwards.
2) The second is a direct breakthrough here; the recent rebounds have all been weak.
Although funding rates have turned negative several times, the downtrend persists.
If it breaks below 8W2, you can short on the rebound, stop loss at 8W4, and take profit at 8W exactly.
Which trend do you think it is?
$ETH
ETH Market Analysis
Yesterday, the upper resistance for Ethereum was given at 2740. The market surged to a high of 2727 but failed to break through and hold above it, then turned downward.
The previously identified 4-hour key support at 2652 was pierced with a low of 2641. The current price at 2657 is still hovering near the support level.
Today is a very critical day.
The price has been oscillating around the support level without standing firm; the 4-hour structure is very likely to break down further.
The next target support is at 2582, and below that, the strong daily support is at 2400.
Both of these support levels, if tested, present good buying opportunities.
The long-term target of 3000 remains unchanged, but the short term needs to first digest this correction.