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Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. During the intraday bottoming, $UNI showed weak rebound and obvious resistance above, so I shorted around 9.126. At that time, everyone was still watching, and I just said to wait for confirmation, don’t rush. Now at 7.354, the short position is +971.4%, the wait was worth it.😅
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
This drop wasn’t violent, but the rhythm was right, and the profit was held out. Take what you should when shorting; those on board should be waking up smiling. The earlier hesitation was real, but coming out of it feels really good.
First, close 80%, pocket the big part, and keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. Let profits run if it continues to drop, and don’t give back profits if it rebounds. Take profits when it’s time.
For friends who haven’t gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase shorts. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will give a signal.🔥
$BNB $ETH #以太坊Glamsterdam升级登陆Sepolia测试网 $ETH
gas limit raised to 200 million, no change at all on mainnet.
▪️ On 10/6, Glamsterdam activated on the Sepolia testnet, a critical test before mainnet launch
▪️ Two main threads: ePBS separates proposers and block builders into the protocol
▪️ The other is BALs block-level access lists, supporting parallel state reads and transaction verification
▪️ Sepolia's gas limit increased from about 60 million to 200 million — only applicable to the testnet
▪️ Mainnet gas limit remains unchanged; activation times for Hoodi and mainnet are still undetermined
▪️ ETH around 2,560 on 10/8, all four short-term moving averages broken downwards
The divergence is not about how fast the upgrade is, but whether testnet parameters can be directly applied to mainnet — you can restart in the lab, but not in production.
gas limit tripled, the computational capacity per block triples, and memory and bandwidth requirements for validating nodes rise accordingly. The mainnet must first ensure enough nodes can keep up; this threshold is set by the slowest machines in the network.
Direction to watch — first check Hoodi's schedule, then see if the mainnet gas limit moves.$ZEC I don't know if I should set a stop-loss point before going to sleep tonight, worried it might cascade like last night and take everything away!
Watching the big players' positions, I quietly put down my phone and fell into deep contemplation. Is this the gap? They remain calm through daily fluctuations of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars. Is this the level I strive to reach!
And me? Holding tens of dollars with a margin of a little over a hundred, a few dollars' fluctuation scares me to death. I watch the liquidation price trembling every day, ready to take shelter under the overpass anytime. They hold positions worth tens to millions of dollars like it's a game, while I cry and complain over a few dollars.
At this moment, I finally understand, what I lack is not skill, but capital! A big heart! The confidence to "still joke around after losing twenty thousand dollars!" I also want one day to be like the big players, holding an 800% floating loss without blinking, calmly saying: "No worries, I can still hold." Because behind it is strong financial backing, not afraid of liquidation!SOL finally pulled back from around 121 to 109.7, reducing the unrealized loss from over 1,400 points to -307.24%. This time it really looks much better 😮💨 The short position opened at 106.43 is still active, and it's already a partial position; the target of 100 remains unchanged.
In the past few days, the funding side has, for the first time, consistently sided with the bears. Farside data shows that the SOL spot ETF has experienced multiple net outflows since September 30: -$12.5 million on September 30, -$1.1 million on October 1, -$9.2 million on October 5, -$3.7 million on the 6th, -$4.8 million on the 7th, and again -$3.5 million on the 8th. In other words, the previous continuous subscription momentum has indeed been interrupted.
My own judgment is that this is more meaningful than previous single-day negatives because it’s not just one day’s data but several consecutive withdrawals of funds. Of course, the outflow scale is not yet a panic sell-off; the entire SOL ETF history still shows a net inflow, so I wouldn’t say the trend has completely reversed. More accurately, the strongest incremental buying force from before is at least not as strong now.
Moreover, the broader market is also applying pressure. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $485 million and $244 million on October 7 and 8 respectively, indicating that it’s not just SOL weakening on its own, but the entire crypto market’s risk appetite is cooling down. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 🔻Structural weakness confirmed! XLM continues capital outflow, AVAX long leverage completely cleared
$XLM｜-3.5% Current price 0.1925, 7-day -12.99%
Support at 0.20 broken, showing a gradual decline, high beta funds continue to flow out, on-chain credit asset benefits not yet realized.
Support at 0.19, if broken look to 0.18; resistance at 0.20-0.205.
7-day: 0.19 is a key watershed, holding it maintains range-bound oscillation, breaking it leads to 0.18.
Intraday 0.1900-0.1980, stop loss at 0.1875. Strategy: wait and see, do not hold hard.
$AVAX｜-9.5% Current price 10.05
10.8 and 10.2 consecutively broken, testing the 10-dollar mark. Funding rate annualized at -17%, long leverage basically cleared, selling pressure comes from spot.
RWA and public chain shares are squeezed, sector elasticity is weak.
Support at 10, 9.5; resistance at 10.8-11.0.
7-day fully follows the market, holding 10 to see a rebound, breaking leads to 9.3-9.5.
Intraday 9.90-10.50, stop loss at 9.75. Strategy: weak target, not recommended to participate. BTC plunged sharply without negative news
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
In the past two trading days, the crypto market experienced a rapid decline despite no apparent sudden negative news. BTC fell more than $5,000 from its high, reaching a low around 80400. ETH and SOL also dropped in sync. Over 170,000 liquidations occurred across the market in the last 24 hours, mainly due to concentrated clearing of leveraged positions chasing highs.
This round of decline is not due to a fundamental shift but rather multiple factors resonating on the funding side: the Fed's hawkish minutes and phased ETF outflows are known information, combined with a retreat in geopolitical risk sentiment. Institutional funds collectively withdrew, triggering profit-taking and leveraged position liquidations on the exchange, resulting in a cascading sell-off.
The current market has somewhat recovered but with weak overall momentum. Volume did not significantly increase during the rebound, prices remain suppressed by short-term moving averages, and neither the overhead resistance nor the lower support has been confirmed. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, undergoing a consolidation phase after the decline.
Overall, this is a short-term risk release driven by funding factors. The trend direction is still unclear. Whether a sustained rally can emerge depends on volume recovery and new catalyst signals. #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% Dropped 5000 dollars in two days, bounced back to 83000 today. Don't rush to call it a bottom; this is not a rebound, it's just a breather.
Market sentiment: Greed index 59 — retail investors are still greedy, institutions are running.
Spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 730 million USD in two days, with 487 million USD outflow on October 7, the worst since June. Over 1 billion USD liquidated in 24 hours, longs were targeted and cleared. Don't just focus on the bearish news; there are noteworthy factors too. This year's director is the Federal Reserve and the Middle East situation. Whether 80400 is the bottom or a consolidation will only be known after the CPI data on October 14.
The most dangerous thing now is not the drop, but thinking the drop is over.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
The leader has something to say
The treasury is still increasing holdings, but there is a key signal that cannot be ignored.
Tom Lee from BitMine said at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that ETH holdings should be capped at 5% of the total supply as a hard limit. BitMine currently holds 6.016 million ETH, with a total supply of about 120 million; 5% is 6 million. It's almost at the limit.
This means the largest ETH treasury company will stop buying. BitMine's previous continuous accumulation was an important support for ETH spot demand. Now that they clearly state no further expansion, ETH loses a key buyer. This has little impact on BTC but is structurally bearish for ETH. ETH ETFs are already seeing outflows, and with treasuries stopping purchases, it will be harder for ETH to strengthen in the short term.
This week, Strategy only bought 334 BTC at an average price of 85,839, while spending $176 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares. Less money was spent on buying coins, more on repurchasing preferred shares. Cash is primarily used to optimize capital structure, not for reckless accumulation. The treasury model is diverging and weakening.
On the market, BTC rose 1.54%, ETH rose 0.72%, with limited rebound strength. ETFs saw a net outflow of $487 million yesterday, the largest since June 25. The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.7%, oil prices remain high, and macro pressure persists.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC rebounded sharply from the low of 82423.0 to 83386.5 within 3 minutes, then pulled back again, currently priced at 82975.3. The short-term has completed a round of bottoming and recovery; after the rebound touched the upper resistance, it entered a volatile pullback, with bulls and bears battling again.
The key now is whether the resistance at 83386.5 can be broken. After the price rose from the low point, it encountered resistance and pulled back at 83386.5. The bullish rebound momentum has weakened, and it has not yet broken the previous high. It still belongs to a corrective phase after the decline and has not yet turned strong again.
The levels are very clear. Above, 83386.5 is the current strong short-term resistance. Only by effectively holding above this level will the rebound continue to expand upward; below, the first support is at 82750, and further down is the low at 82423.0. Once 82750 is broken, this rebound will be declared a failure and will retest the lower lows.
Regarding positions, long positions should be held with a stop loss placed below 82423.0. Do not add to longs just because of this rebound, nor close positions immediately on a slight pullback after resistance. Whether this correction can turn into a new upward trend depends mainly on breaking through the 83386.5 resistance level. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 Demand for 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may be increasing, but...
This view differs somewhat from that of Frank's teacher. Frank believes that the subscription multiple for 30-year U.S. Treasuries is 2.54, higher than the average of previous issuances, which indeed suggests that demand for 30-year Treasuries might be growing.
However, the voting multiple in October was lower than in September. Moreover, the reference value of the investment multiple is generally limited, since a lot of funds may bid at very high yields, but these are still counted in the total subscription amount.
In reality, the winning bid yields are basically close to the pre-issuance yields, with a difference of only 0.001 percentage points, which can be ignored.
Observing the yields on 30-year U.S. Treasury issuances, they still show an upward trend, and the increase is accelerating.
Therefore, the risks associated with U.S. Treasuries should not be overlooked.The recent ZEC market movement is driven by three core logics: privacy demand, institutional product expectations, and quantum security narrative. However, based on the latest trend, the market has begun to reprice. 1. Fundamentals: The privacy sector still holds long-term value As AI's ability to analyze on-chain data improves, the risk of addresses and transaction behaviors being correlated and identified is increasing. Zcash's shielded transactions can enhance financial privacy, thus regaining market attention. Currently, nearly 29% of ZEC supply has entered the shielded pool.  Additionally, the development team is advancing quantum resistance-related features, aiming to provide related payment support by January 2027. However, the actual implementation depends on development progress, so the roadmap should not be considered as already realized positive news.  2. Short term: Capital outflow is the main current pressure On October 8, ZEC once dropped to about $1113, with a single-day decline exceeding 10%; on October 9, it rebounded to around $1220 but has not fully recovered previous losses. The Grayscale Zcash ETF also experienced continuous capital outflows, and derivatives open interest declined simultaneously, indicating some funds are exiting or reducing leverage.  This means the current rebound does not necessarily indicate a new upward trend has started. 3. Key levels to watch next? • **Around $1200:** Short-term observation zone, watch if it can stabilize effectively. • **$1280–$1300:** Resistance area that needs to be reclaimed for a rebound. • **$1110–$1120:** Recent lows$BCH has dropped from around 322 to 268.5, with several rebounds in between failing to change the downward momentum. Especially after breaking below 300, the 4-hour chart has continuously closed with bearish candles, and each rebound has been weaker than the last. In this kind of market, predicting the direction in advance is indeed more important than chasing the price.
The short position opened near 300 is currently at a price of 274, with unrealized profits exceeding 4 times. The main consideration for opening this position was that after the previous high-level consolidation ended, the price continuously broke key supports, and rebounds consistently failed to reclaim the lost areas, making the bearish trend increasingly clear.
Although the 1-hour MACD has briefly formed a golden cross, the red bars have noticeably shortened, and the KDJ is turning down again, indicating that the rebound strength is weakening. The 4-hour MACD remains below the zero line, and the bearish pattern has not changed for now.
However, there was already a rebound near 268.5, so a continued short-term decline may not be smooth sailing. There is repeated contention around 274; if it breaks below 272.5, it may test 268.5 again. If the rebound never surpasses 280, bears still hold the advantage. The market has already moved through most of the trend, and the remaining profits will be left to the market to decide. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Last night I couldn't sleep, staring at my phone wallet for a long time.
Just that string of numbers, staring for half an hour, haha, it seems like I've had a sixth sense since I was a kid.
Then this morning I came across a message,
An AI model tried to solve problems that mathematicians around the world haven't solved yet.
It tried 4,000 problems in one go and produced 722 papers.
Just the quantity alone is already intimidating.
But what really gave me chills was something else.
Why is Bitcoin secure?
Not because the passwords are set to be complex.
It's because it posed an arithmetic problem that humans can't solve.
Others only know your wallet address but can't calculate the key to access the funds.
Everyone has used it this way for decades without suspicion.
But what if AI can figure it out?
To be precise, it means calculating your private key from your Bitcoin address.
Someone has now come forward with a heavy statement:
We might lose public-key cryptography.
This person is cryptographer Matthew Green, who warned that artificial intelligence might weaken public-key cryptography.
It's not just about coins.
Bank transfers, your login passwords, all encrypted communications rely on the same system.
But I have to say something in reverse.
Don't rush to smash your wallet.
Because so far, no one has really broken it.
Even if some difficulty is reduced, ordinary hackers won't be the ones to do it.
Because Bitcoin has been the most expensive target on the entire network for years.
It still remains one of the most valuable targets.
And it's not valuable because it was cracked,⚠️ZEC violent pullback, AAVE defies the trend to hold key support
$ZEC｜-10.6% Current price 1187
Yesterday the 1250 lifeline was broken, moving toward 1150. Previously, it rose from below 1000 to 1600, a 60% increase. This round is the first large-scale profit-taking, but the underlying privacy coin narrative remains intact.
Support at 1169, break below targets 1112; resistance at 1195, 1222, daily EMA50 at 1150.
7-day outlook: Holding 1150, the market stabilizes with potential rebound to 1300-1350; a confirmed break below 1150 invalidates this uptrend, targeting 1050.
Intraday range 1169-1222, stop loss at 1150. Strategy: Pullback is slightly bullish, wait for stabilization signal at 1169.
$AAVE｜-4.6% Current price 166
The 165 lifeline is barely held, among 14 coins it is relatively resistant to decline, with positive 7-day returns. Pendle capital rollover test passed smoothly, Aavenomics 3.0 burn expectations provide a floor.
165-170 is key platform + EMA50 support; resistance at 175-178, breakout targets 185, funding rate favors bulls.
7-day outlook: Holding 165 targets 175-185; break below 158 targets 150.
Intraday range 163-171, stop loss at 160. Strategy: Slightly bullish, can buy low at 165-168, but must consider overall market conditions. Bitcoin plunged from the dreamlike 87,000 to the reality of 80,400, Ethereum free-fell from 2,777 to 2,405, with $1.1 billion liquidated and 180,000 people's chips vanished into thin air.
Some ask, why chase longs even knowing it will drop? Because instinct always outruns reason. Panic is immediate, greed triggers in seconds, while "knowing and doing as one" requires you to hold back when blood is flowing and restrain your heart when the fire is blazing.
This round of sell-off was a multi-hit resonance: hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, soaring US Treasury yields, and government wallet movements. You understood all the bearish factors, yet still bottom-fished during the decline—this isn’t a cognition issue, it’s a human nature issue.
The market never lacks smart people; it lacks those who can control themselves. Waiting for the trend to speak for itself is far more reliable than scripting the market.
Current overall profit/loss: -259u
Return rate: -56%
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $SENT is the biggest loser today with a 15% drop
Don't think this is the bottom now. Be cautious with coins that have surged rapidly
It might pump a bit now to unload, then continue to crash
There should be support around $0.02 at least
But later it will definitely drop to around $0.013 before hitting bottom
First, this coin has surged too much and definitely needs a correction
Second, the expectation of rate hikes still exists, so the possibility of a drop is high
Even $BTC has corrected so much now, so these coins falling is inevitable
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 A chart to understand the DOGE ecosystem: 14 projects, 5 major tracks, all fees paid in DOGE
Many people still associate DOGE with MEME coins, suitable only for speculation and transfers. With the launch of DogeOS testnet, the native DOGE ecosystem has taken shape, covering 5 major tracks and 14 projects, including DeFi, stablecoins, prediction markets, GameFi, and underlying infrastructure.
The biggest highlight: all ecosystem contract interactions consume DOGE as the unified fee. The DeFi sector includes DEX, lending, perpetuals, and options; USDoge supports minting stablecoins backed by DOGE collateral; meanwhile, there are supporting chain games, launchpads, and native wallet payment gateways.
DogeOS adds EVM capabilities to DOGE, breaking the previous limitation of no smart contracts and creating sustained on-chain consumption demand for DOGE.
However, risks must be viewed objectively: currently, the vast majority of projects are in the testnet phase and have not yet launched on mainnet. The ecosystem's TVL and real user base are relatively small, and implementation remains uncertain. DOGE's market remains highly tied to the overall market and community sentiment, making it a typical sentiment-driven MEME coin. Avoid heavy speculative positions.
#DOGE #DogeOS #MEME币4-Hour Brief｜UNI Deep Correction, VIRTUAL Dragged Down by AI Sector
$UNI｜-10.2% Current Price 7.136
Prediction "Break below 7.6-7.7 to target 7.0" fulfilled, retraced 35% from the high, oversold correction stronger than expected.
8.6 support lost, EMA50 resistance at 8.2, RSI weakening. Mid-to-long term narrative unchanged, but DeFi funds are fleeing, profit-taking concentrated.
Support at 7.0, if broken look down to 6.5; resistance at 7.6-7.7, until recovered only a weak rebound.
7 days: 7.0-7.2 presents oversold rebound opportunity, reversal requires volume expansion.
Intraday 7.05-7.45, stop loss at 6.95. Strategy: no bottom fishing, wait for right-side confirmation, breaking 7.0 triggers new downtrend.
$VIRTUAL｜-7.04% Current Price 0.7153, down 10% in 7 days
0.75 support broken. OpenAI revenue forecast downgraded, AI sector under collective pressure, VIRTUAL passively follows down.
Support at 0.68, resistance 0.75-0.77. Highly concentrated chips, lacking external incremental support.
No independent positive catalyst in 7 days, follows the broader market; if Bitcoin stabilizes, look to 0.77, break 80,000 then test 0.65.
Intraday 0.700-0.740, stop loss at 0.685. Strategy: neutral to bearish, prioritize watching or light position range trading. 📉4-hour Market Overview｜HYPE Unlocks Top Suspension Digestion, DOGE Breaks Downward
$HYPE｜-4.62% Current Price 84.2
Yesterday's prediction "Break below 87 to target 84" realized, retracing 14% from the historical high.
3.75 million tokens unlocked for OTC distribution, half of the chips still in spot wallets, forming a top suspension bearish pressure; however, the protocol's daily revenue ranks first in the industry, Bloomberg pricing integration and Grayscale staking ETF advancement provide fundamental support.
80-84 is the core buying zone, resistance at 90-91, 96; funding rate annualized at +11%, many bottom-fishing funds.
7-day outlook likely to oscillate between 84-91; holding 84 targets 90-91, breaking 80 may test 75.
Intraday range 83-87, stop loss at 82. Strategy: Do not chase highs, can trade around 84.
$DOGE｜-5.6% Current Price 0.08411
The 0.085 level has been broken, pushing toward 0.080. Previously, 0.10 was resisted three times, already weak, accelerated decline driven by the broader market.
4-hour chart breaks below EMA50 and EMA200 dual moving averages, MACD dead cross below zero line. Support at 0.082/0.080, resistance at 0.088-0.090.
Inflation persists, no new narratives, purely a high elasticity beta asset, with amplified ups and downs.
7-day: If BTC holds 80,000 then DOGE will consolidate between 0.082-0.090; if BTC breaks down, look for 0.078-0.080.
Intraday 0.0830-0.0870, stop loss at 0.0815. Strategy: Weak trend, reduce positions at 0.088 on rebound, avoid catching falling knives. The rebound near 1700 probably made many people think $SNDK was about to take off again, but the market turned and fell, failing to hold even 1640, with the price approaching 1600 again. Those who chased at the high point are indeed feeling bad now.
This short position was opened around 1726.4, with the current mark price at 1603.1, and the floating profit has reached 5.35 times. The initial bearish view was mainly because after the high at 1806, the four-hour chart showed consecutively lower rebound highs, and several pullbacks failed to reverse the downtrend.
Especially this rebound, after the hourly KDJ formed a death cross at a high level, it quickly dropped; the MACD red bars gradually shortened and turned green again, combined with volume-increasing decline, indicating short-term selling pressure remains active. The four-hour MACD also stays below the zero line, and the weak pattern has not changed.
However, the area near 1600 is already a sensitive short-term zone, and the previous low at 1586.3 may be tested again. If it breaks and cannot quickly recover, there is more room below. Conversely, if it climbs back above 1640, beware of a rebound caused by short covering. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $TRUMP is a low-circulation bet that no one is taking, hovering around $1.83, down 11% in seven days, with a market cap of 5.1 billion, down 97% from its ATH of 73. The most critical issue with this coin is its token distribution.
Circulating supply is 282 million, total supply 1 billion, only 28% unlocked, with the remaining 72% held internally and by the team. The contract is on Solana, a typical low-circulation, high FDV setup.
20% is truly circulating in the market, 80% is internal tokens. This structure means any price pump is just paving the way for internal selling, and all the buyers are retail investors. Without new catalysts, it purely relies on political meme sentiment to hold.
1.83 is the 24-hour low and also support; if broken, look for 1.74; above, 1.88 is the intraday high. RSI is 37.5, weak but not extreme. Low price doesn’t mean cheap; FDV still has nearly $19 billion hanging overhead.
Internal unlocking is long-term selling pressure; don’t be fooled by "it’s dropped too much". Low circulation doesn’t mean cheap; it’s a withdrawal code prepared for insiders. $MRNA has been thinking about a question recently: Could Moderna in Shanghai experience a 'Tesla moment' for the pharmaceutical industry? When Tesla moved its factory to Shanghai back then, many probably didn't expect that it would change not only Tesla itself. A factory comes in, suppliers follow, talent comes along, processes are introduced, local companies start benchmarking, and eventually the entire industry chain is reshaped. Moderna is somewhat similar. In 2023, Moderna started building China's first production base in Shanghai, with an investment of about 3.6 billion yuan. According to the disclosed plan at the time, this site is not only for vaccine production but also involves R&D and personalized new antigen products. (Perception Shanghai) At that time, mRNA had not yet truly taken off domestically. But looking back now, things have already started to change. In August this year, Moderna and Merck announced the Phase III results of INTerpath-001. This is the first time personalized mRNA tumor therapy has achieved positive Phase III results. It is not a vaccine made in a bottle to sell to everyone, but a vaccine designed based on mutations in the patient's tumor. (Moderna News) This is where the real interest lies. If such products enter China in the future, it may bring more than just Moderna selling a few more drugs. Behind it is a whole system: sequencing, tumor samples, antigen screening, mRNA design, original📊4-Hour Brief｜SOL Leveraged Longs Liquidated, OKB Tests Neckline Support
$SOL｜-5.9% Current Price 109, as expected reaching lower boundary at 110
Funding rate annualized at -7%, leveraged longs basically cleared, selling pressure comes from spot and stop-losses, downside fuel weakens.
4-hour moving averages bearish, EMA50 resistance at 114, October gains mostly retraced.
Support at 105/100, resistance 114-116, upgraded bullish news already priced in, purely tracking market beta.
7-day range 100-114; if BTC breaks 80,000 then test 100-102.
Intraday 107-112, stop loss 105.5. Strategy: reduce positions at 114 on rebound, do not chase shorts.
$OKB｜-5.45% Current Price 124.3, yesterday predicted break below 128 targeting 124 realized
Sector shows resilience, 7d +3.43%, 30d +11.68%, fundamentals plus buyback and burn support.
124 is September breakout neckline, holding it means continuation of uptrend; resistance 130-132, previous high 138.
If BTC stays above 80,000, stabilization may push to 130-132; break below 121 targets 115.
Intraday 123-128, stop loss 121. Strategy: prioritize buying dips, relatively strong.$ZEC ZEC is currently exhibiting a classic "first dip to 1200" followed by a volume-reduced consolidation pattern. Influenced by the overall market pullback (BTC falling from 83499 to 82984), ZEC triggered concentrated profit-taking by previous short sellers after touching the 1200.55 integer level, passively pushing the price up to around 1221.
From a technical perspective, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 are tightly converged in the 1217-1224 range, and the volume during the rebound is extremely thin (only 7.84k), indicating a lack of incremental capital entering the market. This rally is essentially a "dead cat bounce" and a brief emotional repair, not a trend reversal.
In the vacuum period of the bulls and bears struggle, 1200 becomes a short-term key anchor point. If the overall market fails to break out with volume, as short-term buying power wanes, ZEC is very likely to end the emotional repair and test 1200 or even lower again. Currently, it is a quiet period before a market shift, and the future direction still depends on the guidance of the overall market volume.A sharp rebound does not mean the bearish trend has ended; floating profits shrinking also does not mean you must close your position immediately. @歐哥's clearest stance in this situation is: temporarily hold existing short positions, but don't rush to add more, and definitely don't flip to long just because of a short rally. What he is waiting for is not the account numbers looking better again, but clear trend evidence from the market.
First, look at $BTC. He is discussing the move from around 80,000 rebounding to about 83,500. After the initial drop, the price has recovered a significant portion of the decline, naturally putting pressure on short holders. But in his framework, judging a reversal is not just about how much it has risen, but also about who is driving this move and whether the original entry logic has been overturned.
His daily short position basis remains the expectation of a pullback after a bearish divergence at the top, not a small drop on the one-hour or four-hour chart. He repeatedly emphasizes that short-term trading and daily trend trading, though both called "shorting," are not targeting the same segment of the market. If the plan was to profit from the first leg, then choosing to exit upon a rebound is not wrong; if the plan was to wait for a larger-scale pullback, you cannot replace the original decision criteria with small-scale fluctuations temporarily.
This is not a "hold and you will profit" statement. @歐哥 states the cost upfront: he has accepted that these short positions may return to near break-even or even ultimately incur losses. He is willing to bear this risk in exchange for the potential of a larger pullback, but this is his choice and does not mean everyone should endure the same drawdown. Those who have not thought through the risks in advance are most likely to suffer when profits shrink I've read the JPMorgan report twice, and what I really want to say isn't about SpaceX.
It's about Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T — the three companies that have been making easy money, but now someone might come knocking.
But note, the report itself adds: the short-term threat is limited.
In other words, the story is being told, but the real fight is still far off.
What I'm watching isn't telecom stocks, but the signal behind this.
The spectrum SpaceX holds is basically a ticket to enter wireless communication. If they really get involved, it just means one more player sharing the pie.
Going from three to four players, a price war is bound to come up sooner or later.
But what does this have to do with crypto?
Not much, so don't force the connection.
If anything, this narrative of a “new player entering to shake things up” has been playing out in every circle lately.
What’s really worth watching is whether SpaceX will actually step in or just hold the spectrum as leverage.
Right now, I'm leaning towards waiting and seeing.
This kind of news has more emotional value than actual value.
I've chased these “giants disrupting the industry” stories before, only to find out it was my positions getting disrupted.
#SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信 $AT SOL at $110, are you going to buy the dip?
On-chain active addresses surged to 1.88 million, a 13-month high, stablecoin supply broke through $15 billion — yet the price dropped from 123 to 110 in a week, and ETFs still saw a net outflow of $22 million. The price is falling, but the chain is bustling. Is this a golden pit where the main players are quietly accumulating, or a trap where institutions are offloading amid the hype?
Let's look at the surface: SOL perpetual contracts on Binance are around $110, down 2%-4% in 24 hours, daily range 105.7-112.8. Market cap is $65 billion, ranked 7th, contract open interest around 900 million, long-short ratio 1.8, funding rate near zero. Major public chains are retracing, not a small coin crash.
But the candlestick tells you one thing: from the October 2 high of 123.8, it dropped about 12%, price stuck 7% below the 20-day moving average, daily RSI 36-47 — neutral to weak, not yet extremely oversold. 110 is not a new starting point, but a midpoint after losing 120.
First: The busier the chain, the more the price falls — this is not a contradiction, it's a signal.
On October 9, unique active addresses were about 1.88 million, a 13-month high. Network growth has doubled since early September. Stablecoin supply exceeds $15 billion, spot DEX daily volume is $2.2 billion, fees over $10 million a day.
Price is falling, but the chain is still busy.
What you see is "strong fundamentals, price oversold." Here's another interpretation: on-chain heat is the afterglow of the previous rally, not the engine for the next one.
New highs in active addresses don't mean new money is coming to buy the dip — it could just be old players frequently rotating, farming volume, airdrop hunters running. What really matters is not who is using the chain, but who is buying the coin.
The painful truth: ETFs are running. In early October, the US spot SOL ETF had a net outflow of about $22 million, giving back all the inflows from September. Fidelity's FSOL application is still in progress, but that's a future story, not this week's buying.
Second: Institutions are active, but money isn't coming in.
Jump Crypto staked another 4.54 million SOL via Firedancer wallet, worth about $50 million, client deployment is increasing. Securitize launched tokenized stocks of Apple, Nvidia, Tesla on Solana.
Sounds impressive? Staking is not buying. Staking locks up existing coins to earn interest, not scooping from the market. Institutions are "building," but not "buying" — these are two different things.
More intense: September's cumulative DEX volume exceeded $3 trillion, but TVL shrank with the coin price. Stablecoin supply didn't retreat, meaning USD capital hasn't fled, but SOL-denominated assets are shrinking — in plain terms: the coin price dropped, on-chain asset nominal value dropped, but people remain.
This is not a crash, it's a slow, boiling-frog style deleveraging.
Third: Macro is unsupportive, SOL is the top victim of high beta.
Bitcoin fell from $86,000+ in early October to $82,000-$83,000, dominance rising to 59%-60%. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, minutes hawkish, rate cuts far off.
Fear & Greed Index at 59 — still greedy, not surrendering.
What does this mean? The bottom hasn't arrived. The real bottom is when the fear index drops to 10-20, the whole network curses, communities go silent, no one talks coins. Now is a pullback in the greed zone, the main players still have room to sell.
On October 8, SOL dropped from 117 to 108, following BTC's deleveraging rhythm. SOL is a high-beta chain: BTC down 1%, SOL down 3%; BTC sideways, SOL slowly declines. This is not trash, it's its DNA.
Long-short showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Active addresses at 1.88 million, a 13-month high, real on-chain activity
Stablecoin supply over $15 billion, USD capital hasn't left the chain
Jump staked 4.54 million, Firedancer progressing
Tokenized stocks launched, RWA narrative accelerating
Down 62% from ATH 293, valuation extremely compressed
On the other side:
ETF net outflow $22 million, institutional funds withdrawing
Fed hawkish, rates at 3.75%-4.00%
BTC dominance rising, altcoins bleeding
Fear & Greed 59 still greedy, no surrender yet
Technical bearish alignment, 110 is just a pause
Key level 110, life-and-death line at 105.7.
Strong support: 105.7 (today's low) → break to 100 → then 95.8 (30-day low)
Current zone: 109-111 (the 110 you see is a rebound pause, not confirmed buying)
Near resistance: 112.5-113 (today's high, failure to reclaim means continuation down)
Strong resistance: 116-120 (October 7-8 break zone + 20-day MA 118)
Without volume to reclaim 120, all rebounds are just corrections, not reversals.
Trading strategy
Short-term long:
Wait for 106-107 pullback to hold, then 1-hour reclaim above 109.5 before entering. Stop loss below 104.8, first target 112.5, second 116. Entering at 110 now? 112.5 above is a wall, risk-reward not enough.
Breakout long:
4-hour volume breakout closing above 113.5, then target 117-120. Stop loss below 109. No volume fake breakout, no follow.
Short-term short:
Light short on resistance 112.5-114 with weak volume, stop loss above 115.5, target 107/106. 110 already away from today's low, not suitable to chase short.
Swing:
Mid-term logic is active addresses, stablecoins, Firedancer. But ETFs still outflowing. More comfortable position is volume contraction and stabilization at 106, or daily close reclaiming 120. If 105.7 daily breaks, mid-term bulls pause, wait for 100 or even 96 to reassess.
Only if ETF net inflow resumes + price stabilizes above 116, can this retracement be considered a pre-main rally consolidation.
SOL now is like ETH in early 2024 —
ETF approved, institutions bought, price dropped. Everyone called it "trash," then doubled months later.
But one difference: ETH's fear index was already down to 20 then, SOL is still at 59 now.
The busier the chain, the more the price falls. You think it's oversold, but actually the main players are rotating.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Coming back just to become a big loser again, no one else like this!
AguilaTrades, this guy, was silent for 14 months and just returned, but in only two days, his $700,000 principal was directly reduced to $150,000, shrinking by nearly 80%! This is not a comeback, it's basically warming up the market makers!
Watching this operation is really suffocating: yesterday he went long and lost $300,000, probably got anxious, then immediately went short, but $BTC rebounded past 83,000, and the short position was forcibly stopped out at a low point, losing another $250,000. Getting beaten twice in one day, he’s done for. Adding previous losses, the total loss has reached $38,160,000!
Honestly, isn’t this exactly the same as us retail traders getting emotional? Watching his moves, I think the biggest problem is rusty hands combined with eagerness to recover losses. After not trading for 14 months, he immediately tried to make a big move, but lost on the first trade and wasn’t satisfied, immediately reversed, completely led by market emotions, a typical case of chasing highs and selling lows.Brothers, today let's talk about APT, BTC, and ETH. Putting these three together is like comparing three different worlds.
First, $APT is really hopeless. The daily chart shows a standard descending channel, and every rebound is just an escape opportunity, not a chance to get on board. The worst part is that on October 12, 11.31 million APT will be unlocked, worth about $57 million, accounting for 1.9% of the current circulating supply. Meanwhile, the ecosystem TVL has shrunk by more than half from its peak, and on-chain active addresses are also dropping. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing; without structural improvement, any rebound is empty.
Next, $BTC has been consolidating around 85,000 for a week, with a sell wall at 87,000 above and a bottom line at 82,500 below. On-chain signals are positive—whales have been continuously withdrawing coins from exchanges since the end of August. Binance's BTC reserves have dropped by nearly 40,000 coins, marking the largest weekly outflow since June 2023. The price hasn't risen, but chips are moving to cold wallets; this structure is very similar to early this year.
$ETH is the most awkward. Staked volume has surpassed 43 million coins, circulating supply is tightening, and it's stuck in a tug-of-war around 2,680, unable to break through 2,700. The ETH/BTC rate is still grinding at 0.032 with no independent trend. But conversely, once ETF funds flow back, ETH's elasticity will be much greater than BTC's.
A few words: the current market is BTC holding the stage, ETH waiting for the wind, and APT self-sabotaging.
$APT $BTC $ETH Brief Analysis of the Reasons Behind ZEC/USDT's Rise
The recent strength of ZEC/USDT is driven by the combined forces of “Privacy Coin Narrative Revival + Institutional Access Opening + Technical Upgrade Expectations + Contract Short Squeeze.”
First, after the launch of the US's first Zcash spot ETF (Grayscale ZCSH), traditional funds can allocate $ZEC through securities accounts, significantly boosting buy-side expectations; subsequently, Winklevoss submitted an application for a spot Zcash ETF, further expanding the imagination space for “regulatory compliance.”
Second, the resurgence of privacy demand. Against the backdrop of enhanced on-chain monitoring and increased attention to financial privacy in the AI era, Zcash’s “optional privacy + zk-SNARK” model is more easily accepted by institutions than mandatory anonymity coins, leading funds to flow from large-cap coins to the privacy sector.
Third, the anticipation of the NU7 network upgrade boosts sentiment: the target block time will be reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, improving transaction experience and providing technical narratives for bulls.
Finally, ZEC’s circulating supply is not large; after breaking key price levels, short sellers’ stop losses, forced liquidations, and chasing funds create positive feedback, accelerating the price increase.
In short: the rise of ZEC/USDT is not driven by a single news event but by the combined push of “ETF gateway + privacy narrative + upgrade expectations + leveraged short squeeze.” The short-term gains are substantial, but the risk of pullback is equally high. ETH really needs to be cleared out, going back and forth is really pointless!
Brothers, staying up late watching the market, I’m honestly worn out by Ethereum. $BCH and $SOL are charging wildly ahead, while it just hovers around the entry price, wearing me down.
Position update:
$BCH: A true war god! Full position 10X, entry at 261.02, marked at 316.35, unrealized profit +82.82U, ROI as high as +174.90%! Base position 473U, impressively solid.
SOL: Steady as an old dog! Full position 20X, entry at 115.63, marked at 121.81, unrealized profit +81.69U, ROI +101.47%. Yield over 100%, still the anchor of the account. $SOL
$ETH: Full position 5X, entry at 2718.24, marked at 2719.55, unrealized profit +0.94U (+0.21%). This thing is like a dead fish, it can’t rise, it can’t fall.
Logic tells me: just clear ETH quickly! No loss, no gain anyway, better to withdraw the margin and add to BCH and SOL, or just cash out and have a good meal.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 How to interpret the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months for $BTC spot ETF
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
A large outflow ≠ trend reversal, but we need to watch if there are continuous outflows over the next 2–3 trading days.
If outflows continue + BTC fails to hold 80,000–81,000: institutional demand weakens, looking down to around 76,000.
If it quickly returns to net inflow: it’s more like profit-taking or quarterly rebalancing triggered by macro disturbances.
Ethereum spot ETF has also seen consecutive days of outflows, indicating this is not a BTC-only issue but a broader deleveraging/reduction of exposure in crypto risk assets.
What to watch in trading
Daily net flows of spot BTC ETF (SoSoValue / Farside)
BTC’s breakthrough/failure to hold 80,000 and 87,000
10Y US Treasury yield, DXY, crude oil
Whether perpetual funding rates + long liquidations continue
Whether IBIT continues outflows (it was previously the "only support") $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% $STRK's bottom support in this wave is clearly stronger, with funds frantically accumulating around 0.06, volume and price rising together, and the center of gravity steadily moving upward. Now it has pulled up to a high of 0.07366, short-term profit-taking is starting to emerge, and high-level oscillations may see a pullback at any time.
I entered long at 50x leverage at 0.06061, now marking 0.07366, with an unrealized profit of 1076.55%. Tenfold profits look great, but 50x leverage at high levels is extremely fragile, and a single sharp drop can cause a very rapid retracement.
To my brothers, lock in profits and take them off the table first with large positions, keep a base position to watch the 0.07366 support; if it breaks, reduce positions, and if it returns to the opening price of 0.06061, exit all. Don’t be greedy for the tail; only what you take out counts as money. $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #Winklevoss旗下机构申请ZEC现货ETF $ZEC
The second ZEC ETF is here, with the applicant being the exchange owner.
▪️ Winklevoss Asset Services submitted an S-1 registration statement to the SEC on 10/6
▪️ Plans to list on Nasdaq, ticker WINK, fee rate 0.25%
▪️ If approved, it will be the second spot Zcash ETF in the US
▪️ The applicant is an affiliated entity of the two Gemini founders, both the applicant and a former trading venue
▪️ Grayscale's previous ZEC trust is also seeking to convert into a spot ETF
▪️ ZEC on 10/8 was about 1,246, down 14.5% in the past 7 days, up 809.5% in the past year
The disagreement is not about approval but whether privacy coins can pass compliance — ETFs require transparent holdings, which is exactly the opposite direction of ZEC.
ETF custody, auditing, and daily disclosures must show visible addresses; ZEC's default shielded transactions are precisely invisible. The compromise is to only include transparent addresses, at the cost of losing ZEC's true use case.
Direction to watch — first see if the SEC issues an inquiry; if privacy features are questioned, the process will be delayed.Offline event situations of various exchanges during Token 2049:
Binance: Rented a church venue for the event, multiple BSC project teams participated, He Yi did not attend due to pregnancy, CZ also absent, co-CEO Deng was present.
OKX: Held a full-day large-scale event on the 6th, with a large number of attendees, Vitalik appeared on site; supported by a VIP dinner, Xu Mingxing attended and took photos with guests; as an F1 sponsor, invited guests to watch the F1 race.
Gate: F1 race sponsor, invited guests to watch on site, arranged photo sessions with racers, organized a dinner, and held a product launch conference concurrently.
Bitget: Only arranged a Chinese-style dinner, no other supporting activities.
Kraken: Held a dinner, but almost no Chinese KOLs released related on-site photos.
HTX: Arranged yacht activities + VIP dinner, Brother Sun was present, many guests took photos with him; during the main venue, Brother Sun went on the innovation stage for interaction, with a relatively large number of attendees.
hyperliquid: Held events, founder Jeff was present, mostly overseas participants.
In terms of overall event grandeur, the top three in this event are OKX, Gate, and HTX.There is something very interesting: actually, during the big surge in August, many large option holders (sellers) got trapped and rolled their positions into the following months. If the bulls fail to keep pushing now, a sharp drop is quite possible, which would be a real crash. However, it probably doesn't have enough momentum to fall that low. $BTC Are we overlooking a bigger macro logic?🤯
Although BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $484 million and the price is testing the key support level of $82,500, the reduction in corporate treasury holdings and the increase in the proportion of long-term illiquid BTC may be quietly changing the market's supply and demand structure.
📉 Short-term panic does not mean the long-term trend has reversed.
Is this just a shakeout, or is a potential BTC supply shock brewing?
Will you choose to panic sell or stay patient and wait for the market to give the answer?
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch #BTCETFBiggestOutflow #OKXToken2049CheckIn $COW
CoW Protocol takes a distinctive approach to decentralized trading by using batch auctions and coincidence-of-wants matching to improve trade execution. Instead of treating every swap as an isolated transaction, its design can identify opportunities to match orders and reduce certain trading costs. The challenge is maintaining an advantage as DEX aggregators evolve. Actual execution quality and recurring trading demand matter more than the technical concept alone.Although my $ZEC is stuck in a loss, I’m not panicking because right now it’s a classic bull trap—it can’t break through and will have to drop further.
From the high of 1697, it has been smashed down to 1130, a 29% drop. This current rebound is a typical bull trap; it can’t break through and will have to fall again.
First, why the drop? Grayscale ZCSH had a net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week, with assets under management falling from the peak to about $751 million, indicating institutional withdrawal. The Middle East situation is escalating, oil prices have broken $100, U.S. Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, BTC fell below 81000, 124,000 liquidations occurred across the network, and the entire market is deleveraging. ZEC cannot remain unaffected.
Looking at the technicals: the daily chart has broken below the MA20 and the lower Bollinger Band, with moving averages in a bearish alignment confirming mid-term weakness. Resistance for the rebound is at 1250-1280, support at 1160-1100. The current price is just around MA20; if it can’t break above, it’s a short opportunity.
On the news front, the NU7 upgrade testnet was activated on October 4, but the mainnet won’t launch until November 5. There’s no new narrative in the short term to take over, so the positive news has turned into a negative. Funding rates are still positive, and bulls haven’t surrendered yet, indicating there’s still room for further squeeze.
My strategy: hold the short position with a stop loss above 1250. The first target is 1160; if it breaks, look to 1100. Set your stop loss well, take a bite and run—never repeat the mistake of stubbornly holding on before!
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Wallet sellers stealing coins? $86 million vanished, Ledger takes action
Brothers, there's big news in the crypto world again. This time it's not an exchange hack, but a problem with a hardware wallet seller.
Ledger is officially investigating Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis: there are suspicions that the hardware wallets they sold were tampered with, so when users initialize them, their coins get transferred away. On-chain detective Specter estimates hundreds of wallets affected, including BTC, ETH, and Tron, with losses exceeding $86 million; another security researcher estimates $72 million, and the number is still rising.
Ledger has already instructed this distributor to suspend sales and shipments, and warns: if you bought a device from this channel in the past 90 days, do not initialize it yet; if you have already set up a wallet, quickly rebuild a new wallet with a new mnemonic phrase and transfer your assets there. As for whether the device itself has vulnerabilities or exactly how it was tampered with, the investigation is ongoing with no conclusion yet.
In plain terms: the hardware wallets themselves are not compromised, the problem lies with the sales channel. In the future, when buying such critical security devices, only buy through official channels and don’t be tempted by third parties offering cheaper prices.
Did you buy from the official website or a third party? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, manage your positions carefully. For reference only, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Security$SKL
SKALE is designed to support Ethereum-compatible application chains with an emphasis on reducing gas-fee friction for users. That can be particularly useful for gaming and applications that require frequent interactions. But low transaction costs are only one part of the adoption equation. Developers still need compelling products, and users need reasons to return. Ecosystem activity will determine whether the infrastructure achieves lasting relevance.The current market for Bitcoin appears to be a rebound, but in reality, it is a typical liquidity trap to lure longs. Multiple technical indicators resonate with warnings: a massive bearish waterfall could break through the defense line at any moment.
• 4H SMC structure has peaked: The 4-hour level has established a bearish nature change (CHoCH↓), with the high at 87,239 marked as strong resistance (Strong High). There is a huge bearish order block (OB) and fair value gap (FVG) pressure in the 85,500–86,500 area above, so the rebound is only a weak pullback to the imbalance zone.
• Multi-timeframe structure false boom: The large-scale absolute dominant trend is bearish across the board on 4H (-101% expansion zone) and 1H (BOS↓); the 5m and 15m short-term rebounds are only minor corrections in the downtrend, with the main force absorbing long counterparties during the pullback.
• Main force chip gap exposed: The chip control line (POC) is pressed at 85,551, with heavy trapped positions above. The chip volume near 83,060 is sharply shrinking; once the key low at 80,351 is broken, the downside will enter a chip vacuum zone, which is very likely to trigger a chain stampede of longs and a free-fall style crash.
Do not blindly bottom-fish during small-scale rebounds; below 85,500, every rally is a short position area. Breaking below 80,351 will officially start a large-scale unimpeded plunge.Last night in the night session, the phrase "break 82500 to look at 80000" basically came true with today's intraday low at 80400. The close at 83052 reclaimed above 82500, so this round of judgment was correct, let's acknowledge that first. Talking about tonight, the funding rates are interesting. ETH funding rate is -0.0044%, SOL funding rate is -0.0027%, shorts are paying to hold positions; BTC funding rate is -0.0003%, basically neutral. The main short positions are concentrated on altcoins, BTC itself hasn't been heavily shorted. Open interest is 29,947 BTC (about $2.49 billion), leverage is not tight, not at a liquidation chain reaction level. The bad news is on the spot side: US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows for two consecutive days, $487 million on October 7 and $244 million on the 8th, with Fidelity's FBTC outflowing $197 million in one day. Institutions are reducing positions, this is real selling pressure. Outlook: Tonight, BTC 82500 is the watershed. If it holds and ETH funding rate turns positive, short covering could push it towards the 84000 resistance; if it doesn't hold and ETFs continue outflows, 80400 will be tested again. Falsification condition: If BTC directly stands above 83500 tomorrow morning, tonight's judgment is void, indicating the bulls' relay is stronger than I expected. Data: OKX 21:15 real-time snapshot. Which side are you betting on tonight, hold or break? Comment below.After a sharp liquidity sweep down to $12.18, $LINK is grinding back up on lower timeframes with tight price compression and drying sell volume.
➔ Waiting for a higher-low retest gives us a much cleaner Risk/Reward ratio!
📊 Long Setup
– Entry Zone: $12.50 – $12.60
– Stop Loss: $12.10
– Targets: $13.00 | $13.90
⚠️ Counter-trend scalp, respect your SL.The crypto market is undergoing a round of deleveraging. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation amount is about $1.19 billion:
🔹 ETH liquidations about $356 million
🔹 BTC liquidations about $298 million
Among them, long position liquidations exceed $1 billion.
Interestingly, ETH's market cap is less than one-fifth of BTC's, yet the liquidation amount is higher. Adjusted by market cap proportion, the liquidation impact on ETH is about 6 times that of BTC, indicating that the bullish leverage stacked on ETH is significantly heavier.
Concentrated forced liquidations can amplify short-term volatility, but a surge in liquidations does not necessarily mean the downtrend will continue.
Key points to watch next: whether ETH can firmly reclaim the 2500 level, and whether trading volume effectively follows during the rebound phase. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The September FOMC minutes show that 19 policymakers unanimously supported a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the federal funds target range to 3.75%—4.00%. 2, 5 Most officials believe another rate hike before year-end may be appropriate, but the urgency for an October hike has decreased, with market pricing down to about 20%. In the short term, high interest rates continue to suppress risk assets; but in the medium term, BTC's response to macro policy is undergoing structural changes. #### How does a rate hike affect BTC? - **Interest Rate Channel**: Rising risk-free yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. - **Liquidity Channel**: Global M2 expansion typically leads BTC prices by about 2—3 months. - **Risk Appetite Channel**: BTC's correlation with US stocks increases, often pulling back in sync when US stocks are under pressure. #### Key Change: From "Lagging Adopter" to "Forward Pricer" Research shows BTC's reaction on FOMC day is not significant, but the cumulative negative response over the following 10 trading days can reach about -2.60%, with volatility far exceeding that of the Nasdaq and S&P. More importantly, after the approval of the spot BTC ETF in 2024, institutional funds have deeply engaged. Binance Research data shows BTC's correlation with the global central bank easing index has shifted from +0.21 before the ETF to -0.778 in 2026. This means institutions may position 6—12 months in advance, and BTC will **lead[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh straightforwardly says, SpaceX's acquisition of low-frequency spectrum clearly shows its intention to upgrade from a "satellite broadband provider" to a "mobile operator," directly competing with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
First, let's look at the scale of the move. SpaceX announced the purchase of 800MHz low-frequency spectrum covering the entire U.S., with a maximum bandwidth of 14MHz, for about $8 billion. This spectrum has extremely strong penetration; most existing phones support this band, so users don't need to switch to specialized satellite phones. Elon Musk personally posted that this is "highly significant."
What does this mean for BTC?
In the short term, this is another reinforcement of the AI infrastructure narrative. SpaceX acquiring spectrum and building a direct-to-phone network essentially packages "space computing power + satellite communication" into a larger infrastructure platform. Starlink is already SpaceX's only profitable business, and now it’s entering the trillion-dollar mobile communication market, thickening the entire AI + space infrastructure chain. As a risk asset, BTC can ride the wave of tech sector sentiment.
But Pharaoh must remind you not to treat SpaceX's move as a driver for BTC. BTC is still struggling around 80,000, with resistance at 84,500 and short-term support at 82,000. SpaceX's spectrum acquisition won't pull much liquidity from BTC in the short term, nor will it directly cause a takeoff. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信 $ETH I added some position in Ethereum, now Ethereum is very weak, 2500 can't hold at all
From yesterday's 2400 it rebounded all the way to around 2510, I feel it should pull back, this strong rebound has been rising all the way
Now it is blocked near 2500, the bears will definitely take the opportunity to smash the market again, not looking too far ahead for this wave, too many unknowns over the weekend
I plan to exit around 2450, this is yesterday's strong support line, the spike just reached 2400
$BTC Bitcoin actually rebounded to 83500, this position is very strong, it should be a signal of stopping the fall, after one more pullback I will close my position
The lower range 81500-82000 should be the pullback point of this rebound, Bitcoin is very strong now, it probably won't continue to smash the market
It is very likely to move sideways, the possibility of a V-shaped bottom rebound also exists, but currently there is no news to pull it back to around 85k in one step $ETHFI
Liquid restaking has introduced another layer of complexity to Ethereum’s staking economy. Ether.fi combines liquid staking with additional restaking-related services, giving users more ways to deploy capital. However, extra yield opportunities can also introduce additional dependencies and risks. ETHFI’s long-term relevance depends on whether users find these services genuinely valuable without overlooking smart-contract, slashing, and liquidity risks$POLS
Polkastarter operates in the token-launch and fundraising segment of Web3, connecting early-stage projects with potential communities and participants. This model can provide access to emerging ideas, but it is also highly sensitive to market cycles. When speculative capital retreats, fundraising becomes harder. The meaningful measure of success is whether supported projects deliver useful products and retain users after their initial token launches.