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$AVAX AVAX golden cross with increased volume stabilizing, a healthy player among the "follow-the-rally" types, but the space to watch is the previous high at 12.**
Avalanche is up 8.83% today, current price around 11.5, following the late-night market rebound. Data shows MACD golden cross (histogram +0.096), structure is repairing, volume is moderate.
Positioned in the mid-to-high range of the channel, with 12.02 above as the previous high, and supports at 11.24 (0.382) and 11.0 (0.5) below.
In terms of operation: AVAX has always been a "strong when the market is strong, weak when the market is weak" type, with no independent narrative, just following the rally. A stable rebound between 11.24~11.0 is worth watching; a breakout above 12.02 with volume increase would be a real market move. Fairly standard, no rush. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings, risk appetite warming up driving SKHYNIX to rise, but short-term momentum has shown divergence. I lean towards a rebound rather than a reversal. The four-hour chart still shows an upward structure, 7.72% above the low point, however, the one-hour chart weakens, falling 3.25% from the high, closing at 1326.4, up 3.5%, with volume only 69,000, showing a clear volume-price divergence. Order book top ten levels: buy 380, sell 122, buy-sell ratio 3.12, funding rate 0.0000%, open interest 33,000, longs crowded but lacking new inflows. Light long positions can be taken on a pullback to 1301.5, stop loss at 1273.8, target 1341.7; if it rises to 1338.6 and is resisted, try short, stop loss 1362.4, target 1308.3. Single position no more than 5%, exit immediately if broken.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wishing smooth trading. —
$SKHYNIX#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings
#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings $SKHYNIX Tether has frozen nearly $550 million worth of Iran-related USDT this year. Although compliance tightening does not directly impact UNI, risk-averse sentiment will suppress altcoin buying. I lean towards a short-term bearish view and a medium-term wait for a pullback. The four-hour chart still shows an upward structure, but the one-hour chart has turned downward. The current price of 8.861 is 12% below the high. The near-term resistance is at 9.157, and the key support is at 8.531. The trading volume of 23.3 million is somewhat reduced. The funding rate of 0.01% indicates bulls are still paying costs and sentiment is not cold. Open interest of 5.65 million coin-based contracts shows increased divergence. The order book buy/sell ratio of 1.25 slightly favors buyers. Strategy-wise, lightly short at a rebound to 9.083, stop loss at 9.312, target 8.516; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 8.487, consider going long, stop loss at 8.323, target 8.876, with single position size not exceeding 10%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#Tether年内冻结近5.5亿美元伊朗相关USDT
#Tether年内冻结近5.5亿美元伊朗相关USDT $UNI The US stock market has closed, but Rumble, Carvana, and Twist Bioscience continue trading in the crypto space.
Bybit has launched RUMUSDT, CVNAUSDT, and TWSTUSDT TradFi perpetual contracts → USDT settlement｜24/7 trading｜maximum leverage for direct entry. The timezone barrier for brokers has been further reduced.
On the same day, both Bybit and OKX launched XDP perpetual contracts. Expansion of traditional stocks and new crypto derivatives together will increase demand for stablecoin rebalancing, margin usage, and on-chain settlement.
Go long on ETHUSDC: The more traditional assets exchanges handle, the more frequent the capital turnover between stablecoins and ETH.
$ETHUSDCDear, have you understood this market situation? Didn't we say before that a drop in crude oil prices would ease the pressure on U.S. long-term bonds and risk market yields?
Why are Brent, WTI, and #Bitcoin all starting to fall simultaneously today?
Congratulations everyone, as mentioned yesterday, the macro strategy has upgraded this week. We are facing a situation where a slight divergence between Brent and long-term bond yields appeared last week, remember?
It's still an inflation issue, but energy inflation has escalated into endogenous U.S. inflation. The factors driving bond market yield increases have evolved from a single inflation issue to include fiscal supply, term premium, high-yield compensation, and more.
No pretense here, I originally thought this risk would appear in the last two days of this week, but unexpectedly, the market started to feel the pressure even before the data release!
PS: The comparison charts are, in order, Brent, WTI, $BTC, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y U.S. Treasury 1-hour level trend charts. The U.S. stock market isn't doing any better, so it won't be shown here! #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ETH bulls, enjoy the view from the top while it lasts.
I’ve taken a short position. Bulls, don’t rush into the next move — watch these three numbers first.
1. Institutional buying is slowing down. Bitmine now holds more than 6 million ETH, which sounds huge, but last week they added only 17,362 ETH — their lowest weekly purchase since August 17. The previous week was 27,562 ETH.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
#USTreasuryYieldHigh The real divergence this time is not whether $BTC will rebound, but whether the rebound can reclaim above 84.5K. Public market data shows $BTC around 83.07K, down about 0.28% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of 84.56K and a low of 82.78K; the price has returned to the middle of the range, and the confirmation for chasing orders is not strong.
Caleb's approach is to treat 81K–82K as a key bullish POI: holding and reclaiming this level is a condition for going long; if it effectively breaks below 80K, then watch out for a drop back to 75K. A more cautious short-term view looks for resistance near 84.5K, targeting a return to around 82K. These two paths are decided by key price levels, not slogans or taking sides.
My personal market view is to wait first: only consider following the trend if it reclaims 84.5K with a closing confirmation; if it breaks below 82K, then reduce risk and avoid guessing direction from the middle position. There is no sufficient publicly verifiable catalyst within the window, so I will not expand on specific projects for now. Will you wait for the 84.5K recovery, or watch the 82K defense first? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.#Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year, sparking concerns about compliance-driven capital withdrawal. CL, as a highly volatile asset, is the first to be affected. I judge that short-term bears still dominate, and any rebound is just a correction.
It dropped 4.2% in 24 hours to 90.68, with a trading volume of 24.08 million. The lowest was 90.08, closely watched. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are in decline, down -5.68% and -9.97% from their highs respectively. The funding rate returning to zero indicates no premium for longs, and open interest at 467,000 shows no panic liquidation; the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.60, with slightly stronger bids, but heavy selling pressure at 94.71 above makes rebounds fragile.
Strategy-wise, lightly short at a rebound to 92.35, stop loss at 93.86, target 89.42; if the daily close is below 89.12, add shorts with a target of 87.65. Single trade risk should not exceed 2% of total capital, no holding of losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$CL#Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year
#Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year $CL NVIDIA announced an additional $150 billion stock buyback, which spills over risk appetite and supports sentiment for small-cap coins, but BSB itself has limited volume, so don't expect this news alone to drive the price up. I tend to treat it as a rebound rather than a reversal. On the 4-hour chart, it's rising; on the 1-hour chart, it's turning down. After rising 5.8%, it got stuck below 0.10391. A drop of -11.08% indicates strong selling pressure above. 0.09375 is a hard bottom. Buy orders are 3534 versus sell orders 2291, a ratio of 1.54, with buying dominance. The funding rate is slightly positive at 0.0141%. Open interest is 11.556 million, with longs slightly crowded but not extreme. Strategy: place long orders on a pullback to 0.09865, stop loss at 0.09435, target 0.10315; if it rallies to around 0.10375 and stalls, then lightly short with stop loss at 0.10615, target 0.09905. Do not exceed 20% position size per trade; exit if stop loss is hit, do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BSB#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $BSB NVIDIA adds $150 billion buyback, risk appetite spills over, $SNDK indirectly benefits as a high-volatility asset, I hold a cautiously bullish view. The four-hour level is still in an upward channel, but short-term momentum shows signs of fatigue. Current price 1711, 24h up 1.1%, turnover 356,000, volume is thin. The one-hour level weakens, falling 4.18% from the high and only 1.72% from the low, indicating support below is still close. Funding rate 0.0126% mildly bullish, open interest 48,000 coin-based, no extreme crowding observed. Order book top ten buy/sell ratio 0.86, selling pressure slightly dominant, previous high 1751.5 forms short-term resistance, 1687.1 is today's key support; if broken, the four-hour uptrend will be challenged. Strategy: lightly buy on pullback near 1693.5, stop loss at 1678.5, target 1739.5; if volume breaks above 1753.5, add position, move stop loss up to 1721.5. Single position should not exceed 20% of total funds, strictly observe stop loss in thin volume market.
——For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading.——
$SNDK#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $SNDK #Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损 reflects the market's divergence on the high-investment narrative, mirroring the current trend of $MMT — price hovering at 0.1805, short-term longs and longs not yet confirmed, I lean cautiously bullish.
The chart hides contradictions: both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but there is still a -3.06% gap from the 4-hour high and a 45.1% rise from the low, indicating solid mid-term bottom support but closer selling pressure above. The 24h trading volume of 1.256 million is thin, and the funding rate of 0.005% shows mild bullish sentiment without overheating. Open interest at 9.517 million shows no obvious reduction, order book top 10 bids and asks are 13,000 to 13,000, ratio 1.06 slightly favoring buyers, short-term bulls still hold the initiative.
Short-term longs can be placed at 0.1793 with stop loss at 0.1763, target at 0.1849, consider adding positions on breakout; if stop loss is quickly broken, switch to wait-and-see. Position size should be controlled within 5% of total funds, and under thin liquidity, respond with light positions to avoid spikes.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wishing smooth trading. —
$MMT#Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损
#Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损 $MMT $ETH: Around $32.12 million in large long positions are placed between 2614 and 2632, with stop-loss triggers most likely near 2613. Short-term focus on 2630; if broken, look down to 2622 and 2614, with further support at 2550. Futures have decreased by 500,000 contracts in the past four days, leverage has returned to March lows, indicating active risk reduction but not a complete trend reversal. It's safer to go long after stop-losses are triggered and 2630 holds.
$ZEC: Market cap about $26.4 billion, support at 1550, break below targets 1500; resistance at 1600 and 1685. The overall trend hasn't fully deteriorated but volatility is high, avoid chasing the rally.
$SNDK: Support at 1740, strong support at 1680; resistance at 1815 and 1900. Long-term demand still driven by AI server flash memory, but after continuous gains, the price is not low; better to buy the dip than chase highs. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ThisWeekFacesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsWatch: MicronEarningsApproaching, AIStorageDemandInFocus #USIranContinueNegotiationsOnHormuzOpeningConditionsI haven't written these past few days, not because there's no market activity, but because at this current position, the more eager you are to trade, the more likely you are to get chopped back and forth by the market.
After BTC dropped from the highs, the bears do have some advantage, but it hasn't yet reached a true acceleration phase. My approach remains the same: watch resistance on rebounds, watch support on pullbacks, and avoid chasing highs or selling lows in the middle range.
If BTC continues to be pressured down to around 82,500 in this round, the key is to see if it can hold there. If it really breaks, then 81,500 and 80,000 are the levels to focus on next.
MSTR is the same. If you already hold short positions around 160, there's no need to fuss every day. If BTC continues to weaken, MSTR will likely amplify the volatility, so gradually take profits around 156, 153, and 150.
Altcoins are actually more interesting here. PEPE is clearly stronger than many coins right now. Strong coins don't necessarily drop immediately, but the real opportunity often isn't chasing after it rises, but waiting for it to give a pullback.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC $MSTR On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the market is waiting for an answer
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 30, the US August core PCE price index will be released; at 20:30 on October 2, the September non-farm payroll report will follow. This is the last set of key data before the FOMC.
Currently, the resilience of the US economy remains, but the pace of inflation cooling is slow. After the Federal Reserve held steady, US Treasury yields remain high, and the market is extremely sensitive to the interest rate path and the duration of the high level. Several Fed officials have spoken in turn this week; Barr discussed the economic outlook, while Jefferson directly addressed the US economy and monetary policy. Every word could be magnified and interpreted by the market.
$BTC shuttles back and forth between 81,800 and 84,200 like a never-stopping rock crusher. Those trying to catch a rebound were pressed down just after building positions at 82,300; those waiting for a breakout look at 84,600 but never pull the trigger. Neither bulls nor bears gain an advantage.
$ETH is tugging repeatedly around 2,610; at 2,660, someone immediately dumps, and at 2,570, someone immediately scoops up. I still hold a long position at 2,640 that I haven't closed; I added a bit during the pullback two days ago, sold some during today's rebound, and will let the remaining position ride the waves. It's not that I don't want to exit, but until the range breaks, all the ups and downs are just tests—bears haven't surrendered, and bulls haven't retreated.
Now it's not about guessing but patience. Wait for the data to land, wait for the range to break, wait for the market to give its own answer.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $QNT $BTC $ETH
The roller coaster of wild ups and downs has climbed back again, but this time it's a low-volume rebound with questionable strength.**
Quant's movement over the past three days: the day before yesterday +34%, yesterday -8%, today +13.32%—jumping back and forth between the gainers and losers lists over three days. The current price is 248.71, climbing back to the 59% midpoint of the range.
But note: **today's rebound volume is only 0.61 times, indicating low volume**, and the MACD is still a dead cross (bar -1.03). This suggests this rise is not driven by new funds entering but is more of a technical pullback after the sell-off in the previous two days. RSI is neutral at 53.
Resistance above is at 255.7 (0.382), support below at 219.5 (0.5). With an ATR volatility of 10.6%, a 10-point daily swing is routine.
In terms of trading: this coin is currently a "high-volatility meat grinder," so don't treat the low-volume rebound as a reversal. Wait for volume to pick up and break above 255 before discussing the trend; otherwise, it will just keep oscillating within the range. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% emmm, going from liquidation to loss really happens in an instant!
No escaping profit, yet again hitting stop loss, this market really can't be figured out at all!
Altcoin season is truly altcoin season, hitting new highs every day, altcoins really can't be handled recklessly, if things don't look right, you have to leave! From making 180% profit to losing 158%, 😑!
Sigh, whatever, currently only holding positions in ZEC and xSNDK, hoping to make it back tomorrow
Planning to hold ZEC for mid to long term, same with xSNDK, holding for a few days to see 👀
This is definitely a get-rich-quick market, but greed and choosing the wrong direction will lead to liquidation, wishing brothers all wealth!
$ZEC $xSNDK $SOON US-Iran negotiations continue, with nuclear issues and sanctions becoming new focal points. Risk-off sentiment is rising, suppressing risk appetite in the crypto market. As a popular ecosystem token, KAITO is hard to remain unaffected. I lean towards a short-term defensive stance. Although the four-hour chart is still in an uptrend structure, signs of fatigue have appeared. The one-hour chart shows weakness and has fallen more than eight points from the high, making chasing longs less cost-effective. Funding rate is only 0.0050%, indicating low long crowding, but the open interest of 11,162,000 coin-margined contracts combined with a buy-sell ratio of 0.95 suggests sellers have a slight upper hand, making rebounds easily suppressed. The trading volume is 20,305,000, insufficient to support a strong breakout.
In terms of operation, if it rebounds to around 0.3472, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 0.3561 and a target of 0.3189; if it pulls back to 0.3204 and stabilizes, a short-term long is possible with a stop loss at 0.3118 and a target of 0.3346. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and single trade losses should not exceed 1% of total capital, with strict stop loss.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$KAITO#美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点
#美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 $KAITO $PUMP $BTC $ETH
Accelerating upward but RSI at 71 is relatively high, watch for a short-term pullback after the surge.
PUMP is up +12.10% today, current price 0.0057421, hourly chart shows a bullish alignment, MACD just formed a golden cross. The position has pushed to 92.2% of the range, only 3% away from the previous high at 0.00591. But RSI is already at 71, a bit overheated in the short term.
Volume is 1.05 times moderate, neither an increase nor a decrease. The resistance above is at 0.00591, the previous high, and support on the downside is at 0.0054 (0.236 retracement).
In terms of strategy: with the price close to the previous high and RSI high, chasing now risks being shaken out. Either wait for a volume breakout above 0.00591 to chase, or wait for a pullback to 0.0054 to reassess. At this middle position, it's safer to watch and wait. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% US Treasury yields hit a new high since 2007, gold dropped over 3%, and risk assets are under pressure, with sentiment spilling over to altcoins. SLX is hard to remain unaffected. My judgment is short-term weak oscillation with an undetermined direction.
Current price is 0.0646, down 1.8% in 24h, trading volume 3.622 million, funding rate 0.019% indicating longs are still willing to pay a premium, but the order book buy/sell ratio is only 0.72, with 13,000 sell orders outweighing 9,178 buy orders, showing selling pressure dominance. The 1-hour distance from the low is only 2.77%, showing resistance to decline, but the 4-hour distance from the high is -13.91%. The 28.492 million coin-based positions indicate increasing divergence. 0.06262 is key support, 0.06695 is resistance.
Strategy-wise, if it pulls back to 0.06285 without breaking, a light long position can be tried, stop loss at 0.06135, target 0.06675; if it rebounds to 0.06655 and is resisted, a short position can be taken, stop loss at 0.06785, target 0.06345. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SLX#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $SLX Luckily I didn't hold on all the time, or I wouldn't have slept well!
I really almost sold everything off, just checked a moment ago and $CNPY has already dropped below 0.31. If I had held my long position this round, it would have been wiped out by now, making things difficult again.
Also, $PONS and $EDGE are the same. PONS is about to drop to around 0.5, and EDGE is still fluctuating near 0.55. These two didn't continue to fall today; the trend seems to be consolidating.🔥 450U challenge to 10,000U｜Days 5-6 Currently, the account assets are about 700U, with cumulative withdrawals of about 900U, total assets around 1,600U, and cumulative profit reaching 1,150U. These days, the trading mainly revolves around BTC. I still hold some $BTC long positions from Friday until now. During this period, I made several high sell and low buy trades, locking in about 100U profit. The remaining base position once had an unrealized loss of about 200U, but it has now successfully recovered and returned to an unrealized profit state. Over the weekend, I also completed: $ETH long position: about +70U $BTC long position: about +100U The detailed trading process can be seen in my live trading records. Many friends ask me: Why did I keep shorting before, but now start going long? My logic is actually very simple. First, I successfully took about 500U profit shorting near 86,300. Second, when BTC dropped to around 83,000, I considered this more like a normal correction after a rise. Multiple supports near 82,500 formed a clear bottom structure, so I started trying to go long, waiting for the price to challenge the previous high again. Third, and most importantly: the market environment is changing. I won’t directly deny the uptrend just because of one pullback. Compared to past markets, this round of market structure has already shown many changes. Of course, trend judgment is not a guarantee; position sizing and stop loss remain important. 📌 Next, my trading plan#U.S. Treasury yields hit highest since 2007, gold drops over 3%
U.S. Treasury yields essentially represent the risk-free rate; the higher the Treasury yields, the higher the risk-free rate, making it difficult for businesses and workers to operate
U.S. Treasury yields surged again, with the 10-year hitting 5.27% and the 30-year reaching 5.55%, both the highest since 2007. Gold crashed directly, dropping over 4% intraday, with silver following down nearly 5%. Oil prices remain high, inflation expectations are not easing, and the market's bet on an October rate hike has reached 70%. Holding gold yields no interest, and with Treasury yields so high, the opportunity cost is too great, so funds are flowing into the dollar and bonds
BTC also retreated accordingly. But there is a key difference to note. Gold's drop is due to safe-haven assets being pressured by interest rates, while BTC's drop is due to risk assets losing liquidity; the logic is different. Gold's safe-haven attribute is temporarily ineffective against interest rates, whereas BTC, besides being a risk asset, also has a long-term logic as a hedge against fiat currency credit. In the short term, if Treasury yields do not fall, BTC's rebound will be limited. Around 83,500 is short-term support; breaking below that points to 82,000. Resistance is at 85,000, with stronger pressure zones between 86,500 and 88,000
This week also features PCE and non-farm payroll data; don't bet on direction before the data is released. The market is already pricing in high interest rate expectations in advance; wait for the data to land before reassessing. If PCE cools down and rate hike expectations ease, BTC will have a chance to catch its breath. Operationally, watch more and act less; don't rush to bottom-fish. At this point, watching the show is safer than joining the fray. $SNDK has entered a long position, currently with a slight floating loss 😮
The market is running along the lower Bollinger Band, with overall bearish dominance. The key focus is whether the 1699.3 support line can hold steady.
Stop loss is set at 1692; if it holds, look for a rebound resistance at 1714.1.
In a downtrend, trade long to bet on a rebound, do not blindly hold positions, discipline is more important than expectations.I took this order. My most honest thought was that I wanted him to go near 30 again to open 600 short ETH orders, but it didn't get placed. Now watching him go down, it's a headache.Today's cash flow should be read in the sequence $BTC → $ETH → $SOL. When $BTC breaks out with real volume, capital usually prioritizes large assets before seeking higher beta. If $ETH starts to outperform BTC in performance and volume increases, that's a signal that cash flow is expanding. $SOL is only noteworthy when buying pressure sustains after a breakout, rather than just a strong bullish candle. On the selling side, price drops with large volume should avoid early bottom catching. Wait for support, weak selling pressure, and buyers to appear before considering buying. No FOMO, wait for confirmation to buy.Still holding the bearish view. 📉
Rising U.S. 10Y yields are keeping pressure on BTC and ETH, while PCE and NFP could bring more volatility this week.
Watch BTC 82K and ETH 2.7K—until they reclaim these levels, I’m staying cautious and waiting for the data. $BTC $ETH
#MicronEarningsAhead #USIranNuclearTalks #ChainlinkCCIP2Launch The market will not always move as expected; only by being flexible can one seize opportunities in both directions. After exiting long positions at 831 in the afternoon, the market directly reversed to short. Initially, it was predicted that the market might briefly test upward, possibly trapping some traders, but after hitting the key resistance at 845, it was blocked and fell back. In the evening, it experienced a straight decline, with this short position successfully capturing over a thousand points of space. Currently, the market is repeatedly shaking out positions in a fluctuating downward pattern. Short-term support for Bitcoin is at 825; if this support is effectively broken, the downward space will continue to open.
Ethereum support is seen at 2634; if this support holds, a rebound can be played; if it breaks under pressure, the bearish trend will continue. $BTC $ETH Evening reminder: BTC: 84500-85000 staggered short positions
Stop loss: 85500 (if it holds above, abandon short positions)
Targets: First target 83600, second target 82900
The actual market pressure around 84500 fell back to near 82800, hitting today's double targets.
ETH: 2750-2780 staggered short positions
Stop loss: 2810 (if it holds above, abandon short positions)
Targets: First target 2690, second target 2650
The actual market pressure at 2648 fell back to near 2670, hitting the first target and approaching the second target.
What is market intuition? This is market intuition. It's not guessing; every candlestick is speaking, you just need to understand what it is saying.
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 This ZEC trade taught me a 20,000U lesson. Last night, I originally held a short position, and the price movement actually followed my expectations perfectly. I judged that ZEC would continue to pull back and knew that the best thing to do at that time was to wait patiently. But in the end, I got itchy hands. After closing the short, I actually reversed to go long. As a result, ZEC didn’t rebound but instead accelerated its decline. The scariest part is that after losing money, your brain keeps finding reasons for it: "It has dropped so much already, it should rebound, right?" "This might be the bottom." "What if there’s suddenly a V-shaped reversal?" But none of these are analysis; they’re just emotions giving impulsiveness an excuse. In just one 4-hour candle, what was originally expected to be +12,000U ended up as -9,000U, a round trip that wiped out 20,000U. What really upset me this time wasn’t losing money, but: Clearly seeing the right direction, yet losing to my own hands. The hardest part of trading is never understanding the market, but strictly executing the plan after understanding it. $ZEC #ZEC #TradingDiary #交易复盘 #交易心理 #风险管理$ZEC
Once bragged that when shorting ZEC, I am a dog
To prevent the brothers in the group from calling me a mutt
In the morning, seeing it dropped about 3%, I entered at around 1488
Thinking to catch a rebound, take a quick lick and run, a lively horse
I bought in full position, liquidation at 1352, the lowest reached 1355
Damn it, after not going long for a millennium, once I go long, it almost liquidates with just a 3-point difference
Still tough, decisively closed half the position.Just before midnight, I glanced again at the European and US gainers list—$AAVE is quite lively tonight, currently around 170.5 in spot, after dropping near the daily low of 145, it climbed all the way to the daily high of 176. It has risen about 17% in 24 hours, with a trading volume hanging around 16 million USD.
On the futures side, open interest is about 22.5 million USD, and the funding rate is still slightly positive, so the bulls haven't gone crazy. Looking back at $BTC, it fell from the daily high of 84,558 down to around 83,000; $ETH is about 2,673. Bitcoin hasn't really cooperated; it’s charging ahead on its own. First, see if 170 can hold, then test the daytime high; if it can't hold, don't chase aggressively.
$BTC $ETH $AAVE #AAVE #HotList #GainersList #DeFi #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, please trade cautiously. In Q3, the market shifted from banking week to tech's closing session, with the S&P 500's quarterly earnings expectations still in double digits. Technology and energy are the largest contributors. Removing energy would significantly reduce growth, and removing technology would reduce it further. Simply put, the core this quarter still depends on whether AI capital expenditures translate into profits. $BTC $ETH $MU Today's market already reflects this. Carnival's Q3 revenue was about $8.44 billion, beating expectations; CarMax's earnings per share were $1.16, significantly above estimates. Consumer and travel sectors also exceeded expectations, indicating it's not just chip companies reporting good news. The real tone-setter is Micron after the market close on September 30: whether storage price increases still reflect data center demand. Option pricing implies about a 10% volatility for this earnings release. Don't simply equate crypto moves with "buy more if earnings are good." The night session's switches are still U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Since the spot ETF was approved, I started monitoring on-chain inflow data and noticed Wall Street institutions buying $BTC like there's no tomorrow, but their attitude towards the $ETH ETF has always been lukewarm. BlackRock is also aggressively buying BTC but remains hesitant about ETH. As a believer in Ethereum at the time, I thought institutions just didn’t understand Ethereum’s smart contracts and staking yield!
Later, after reviewing compliance reports from traditional asset management, I realized: institutions aren’t ignorant, they simply don’t dare to take heavy positions! $BTC is the only asset that the US SEC legally defines as a "non-security" pure commodity, so buying it carries no compliance risks; whereas ETH’s complex staking mechanism and ecosystem connections constantly face regulatory tug-of-war.
For the old money managing trillions in pensions, their top priority is always "absolute compliance and certainty," not how geeky the technology is! Abandoning the superiority of a geek perspective in trading and following the most conservative big money’s orders is the optimal survival strategy for us retail investors!$SNDK SanDisk, I am still biased towards long positions at this level.
The logic is not simply betting on price increases, but that AI inference is turning NAND from a "cyclical product" into a key storage layer in AI infrastructure. Inference servers have a significantly higher demand for large-capacity enterprise-grade SSDs than traditional servers, and cloud providers also place more emphasis on capacity, performance, durability, and supply certainty.
More importantly, SanDisk has already signed multi-year long-term agreements with several data center customers, with over half of the supply for fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal year 2028 locked in advance. This means revenue visibility is much stronger than before, and NAND contract prices and capacity allocation are more favorable to enterprise storage manufacturers.
The company’s Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 372% year-over-year, with data center business revenue surging; the midpoint of the Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance is slightly below market expectations, but the full-year growth outlook remains resilient. Key points to watch next: whether NAND contract prices can continue to rise, whether long-term agreement coverage increases, and whether enterprise SSD shipments and gross margins can stay high.
However, SanDisk has already seen a large increase this year, and short-term earnings guidance below expectations may still cause sharp fluctuations. This level is more suitable for tracking industry trends rather than blindly loading up at highs.
Are you planning to buy on dips, or wait for the next earnings report confirmation before deciding? Share your cost basis and stop-loss levels in the comments.
This is not investment advice; US stocks are volatile, so please manage your risk carefully. ZEC precisely found support near 1350, with the price strongly rebounding to 1450, validating the trendline's effectiveness!
As analyzed earlier, shorting at 1370 has very low cost-effectiveness; the core strategy is to focus on the support strength around 1350. After the market dipped to a low of 1354, it quickly stopped falling and rebounded, perfectly confirming the pullback.
Friends who positioned on the left side should have already captured profits from this intraday rebound. For those with heavier positions, it is recommended to reduce holdings around 1450 to lock in gains. After all, the profits from positioning near 1350 have been quite considerable.
As a struggling college student, I was still in class this afternoon and couldn't monitor the market, regrettably missing the chance to place left-side orders; by the time I had time to watch, the price had already broken through 1430. That's trading—missing out is not a big deal; what's important is to seize the next certain opportunity. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.587%, a 20-year high
Long-term bonds with high yields directly raise the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, increase leverage interest, and suppress risk assets;
But the root cause of this round of rising yields is the huge US fiscal deficit, and there will also be funds using BTC to hedge US Treasury credit risk, creating a long-short game.
Two scenarios:
👉 If the market trades high interest rates and inflation resilience: BTC is under pressure
👉 If trading focuses on US Treasury supply and debt risk: BTC receives hedge buying
💬 In a high interest rate environment, how will Bitcoin perform? 0G: The Strategy of Offense and Defense After a Big Bullish Candle Breakout
This big bullish candle of 0G showed explosive momentum, surging over 42% within 24 hours, completely igniting market sentiment.
On-chain data shows that the current whale long-short ratio has soared to 185.75%. Among 130 whale long positions, the average entry cost is concentrated around 0.273. This means the vast majority of major funds are already in profit. Although short-term bullish momentum is strong, the risk of profit-taking at high levels is also accumulating simultaneously, and the market may face pullback pressure at any time.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to stay calm and avoid blindly chasing highs. The key offensive level to watch is 0.371; if it breaks out with volume, the upside space will open. On the defensive side, closely monitor the previous support platform; if it breaks down, beware of major holders unloading. At this stage, risk control is more important than speculation, waiting quietly for a second opportunity after a pullback stabilizes. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 The price has retraced the liquidity accumulated over the weekend and touched the $82.8K area we previously focused on.👀 From a structural perspective, this pullback is actually worth paying attention to. After several days of sideways consolidation, liquidity on both the long and short sides has been continuously accumulating, and this recent dip has already cleared some of the liquidity below. Next, focus on $82K: ➤ This is close to the upper edge of the high-timeframe range ➤ It is also an important top area from the previous consolidation breakout rally ➤ If $82K can be reconverted into support, the market structure may gradually regain strength ➤ If it continues to break down, the current rebound structure needs to be reassessed 📌 This week also features events like PCE, nonfarm payroll data, and Micron earnings, with macro data potentially amplifying short-term volatility. Watch the price reaction first, then decide the next direction. $BTC $ETH #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #DailyOrbit#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
NVIDIA is directly adding a $150 billion stock buyback this time, breaking the previous US stock buyback record held by Apple. Combined with the previous quota, the remaining total buyback amount reaches $235 billion, planned to be executed by fiscal year 2028.
✅ Two core signals behind the news
1. The cash flow generated by AI computing power is strong enough that even with continuous investment in chip R&D and capacity expansion, there is still a massive amount of funds available for share repurchases. This indirectly confirms that AI capital expenditure momentum is still ongoing, alleviating some market concerns about a rapid decline in AI demand.
2. Current valuations have been compressed to near a decade low, and earnings growth outpaces stock price gains. The company believes that buying back its own shares now is a highly cost-effective investment choice. Upon the news, the stock price surged nearly 2% in pre-market trading.
✅ Linkage to BTC market logic
NVIDIA is a global barometer of risk appetite; the confidence of tech giants transmits to the entire risk asset market:
👉 On the optimistic side: The AI theme remains stable, Nasdaq strengthens, and market risk appetite rises, which will provide emotional support for BTC;
👉 Caution needed: Buybacks are merely capital operations, not new business growth. If subsequent HBM orders and cloud provider capital expenditures fall short of expectations, relying solely on buybacks will struggle to sustain a major tech stock rally, and the positive effect may easily be realized and then fade.
Key point to remember: This is emotion-driven and cannot change the big macro trends like US Treasury yields, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls. Macro factors remain the core determinants of whether this BTC rally can sustain.Good afternoon, brothers! I’m Bai Qing, still chasing my dream of becoming a crypto genius! 😎 Today is Day 34 of my 500U compounding journey, and total assets have reached around 2,950U — a new high for the account. $ETH has been seeing noticeably stronger trading activity, with 24-hour volume approaching 8 billion, while several other major coins are also gradually picking up volume. It may have something to do with the holiday period, but that should change in the next couple of days. Before #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData $ZEC
If the non-farm payrolls are too weak, it’s not necessarily purely positive; the market might first price in a rate cut, then worry about a rapid economic slowdown. ETH is prone to a two-way volatility pattern of pumping then dumping.
So going forward, don’t just guess the data, but watch where the price lands after the data is released.
PCE determines the initial direction, non-farm payrolls decide whether the market continues to believe in that direction. The real importance is not the data headline, but whether ETH can ride the data to trigger a rally.
#EarningsObserver: Micron earnings report approaching, AI storage demand in focus #US Treasury yields hit highest since 2007, gold drops over 3% $BTC $ETH 🧠 CRYPTO LESSON: WHY DOES BTC DROP EVEN WHEN ETF MONEY IS COMING IN?
Simple answer 👇
ETF inflows = buying pressure.
But if selling pressure from traders, whales, or macro markets is stronger…
**BTC can still fall.**
That’s why you should NEVER look at ETF flows alone.
Watch **price + volume + liquidity + macro** together. 📊
Did you know this? 👇
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoEducation 【On-Chain Trading Update｜xyz:CRCL】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $84.91
▪ Transaction amount this time: $254,738.28
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $198,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +8.35% #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 30, the US August core PCE price index will be released first, followed by the September non-farm payroll report at 20:30 on October 2. Recent US economic data show characteristics of "surface stability, internal differentiation," with inflation falling slower than expected. The job market has not crashed but shows signs of marginal cooling. After the Fed held steady in September, long-term US Treasury yields remain high, and the market's pricing of a "higher for longer" interest rate path fluctuates. Fed officials will appear frequently this week, with Barr scheduled to speak on the economic outlook.
$BTC has recently been tugging back and forth within the 81,800 to 84,200 range, like a crusher constantly grinding short-term traders. Those chasing longs near 82,300 are immediately pushed back, the breakout at 84,600 is long awaited but not yet arrived, bears are tentatively positioning above 84,000, and bulls are placing orders below 82,000 to support.
$ETH is oscillating around the 2,610 pivot, with obvious selling pressure near 2,660 and support near 2,570. My long position at 2,640 remains open; I added some when it dipped to around 2,580 the day before yesterday, reduced some when it rebounded above 2,630 today, and will let the remaining base position fluctuate with the range.1. Cycle layering: Daily bullish trend remains intact → 4-hour wave turns weak → 1-hour/15-minute short-term low-level recovery rebound.
2. Summary in one sentence: This is a short-term rebound during a large-scale high-level correction, not a new upward trend.
3. Key monitoring levels checklist
✅ Upward: 310.2 is the first hurdle. If volume increases and it holds above, short-term target is 314; if it rallies but fails to break 310, the rebound is likely to end and fall back again.
✅ Downward defense: 303.5 is the short-term lifeline; breaking below will retest the 302 low, with the next target at 294.5.
Combined with PCE macro data
PCE data is a major variable.
• If PCE is hawkish: this kind of rebound is easily broken, retesting lower support.
• If PCE is dovish: BCH has a chance to drive the rebound, challenging the 314 resistance. I tried a small position around $AT $APR $APR /USDT 0.1318, purely a market play. The fundamentals are bearish, it's basically funds cutting each other, with manipulative whales making traders' scalps tingle, stabbing and shaking people back and forth; those who can't hold on have already been forced out. What's worth watching is the volume and order book support; short-term sentiment is all concentrated here, and big fluctuations create room for speculation. But this is purely a fund game; if key levels can't hold, just leave, don't get emotional or over-leverage. Do you think it will rebound or wait for a second shakeout? Let's discuss in the comments. 👇👇👇ZEC rebounded from 1356 to 1440 in the afternoon, the waterfall drop in the morning session hasn't been fully digested yet, and no one is mentioning the weekend new high at 1697 anymore.
Yesterday's low was 1521, high was 1615, closing at 1531. Today it opened around 1531, reached a high of 1547, a low of 1356, and the current price is about 1440. Volume increased from 66.45 million to between 126 million and 135 million, first dropping then rebounding, with average catching.
Resistance is still between 1531 and 1547 above; further up is 1615 to 1697. If it breaks below 1356, it’s likely to see lower levels first; if this support also fails, the short term may look for space around 1310.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold at 1440. If it can't hold, consider it as still digesting the drop from 1697, and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low at 1356 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a rebound and failure to break 1547 before considering, don't catch a falling knife in mid-air. $ZEC At 11:30 PM, I was staring at liquidation data and discovered a harsh truth.
In the past 24 hours, 92,709 people were liquidated, with $384 million wiped out. Among them, long positions liquidated $252 million, while short positions only $133 million.
Two-thirds of the long traders were wiped out.
But what's even more ironic? The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $31 million yesterday, marking the eighth consecutive day. Institutions are buying every day at the 83,000 level. Meanwhile, retail traders are going long and getting liquidated.
Institutions buy spot, retail traders use leverage.
Same direction, completely different outcomes.
I checked the liquidation details: the largest liquidation occurred on Binance's ETHUSDT, worth $11.82 million—almost a "millionaire" level position wiped out in an instant. In the face of this $11.82 million figure, any technical analysis or indicator seems pale.
This reminds me of a saying: in crypto, surviving is more important than how much you earn.
I'm not advising you to avoid going long, nor am I advising you to short. I just want to say—when you see ETFs continuously flowing in while your long positions are being liquidated, the problem isn't the direction, it's the leverage.
Were you liquidated today? Or did you successfully dodge this wave of liquidations?
Whether you were liquidated or not, I hope I'm not the only one reflecting deeply late at night.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Gold price dropped 3% in one day, falling to 4148. The talk about production cuts at mines is still circulating; this week, the price is waiting on two numbers.
US Treasuries have been sold off for years, gold has been hoarded for years. Now, countries holding RMB are being pushed to exchange for gold, bypassing the dollar. Observers estimate that hoarding like this aims to replace the dollar in trade and then bring gold pricing in.
The largest gold mine is expected to produce 26.53% less this year. Nationwide, production in the first 6 months dropped 14.62% year-on-year. Whether the production cuts are targeting the gold price is not yet clear from the output data.
On the short side, the interest rate hike has already been priced in mostly, and quite a bit of profit has been made. As soon as any reverse signals emerge, the short covering will be quick.
Wednesday's PCE shows year-on-year 3.7%, core at 3.3%. Falling within or below expectations means less urgency for rate hikes, giving gold a reason to bounce. If the numbers explode, holding 4100 will be difficult.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 100,000 jobs. If realized or lower, it means the 5% interest rate is starting to bite employment, and the 50.9% chance of a rate hike in October will shrink.
Trump said US-Iran talks might resume this week. If the Strait is expected to reopen for navigation, oil prices will drop, easing inflation pressure, and gold will have one less layer of pressure.
At the 4148 level, first wait for Wednesday's two percentages, then Friday's 100,000.
#Gold #PCE #Nonfarm #MarketOutlook【September 29 OKX Movers List｜New Coin XDP Holds Up Against Airdrop, ZEC Drops Nearly 9% on High Volume】
Let's start with XDP today: up 20.67%, with OKX trading volume around $23.55 million.
It just launched yesterday, with Binance Alpha airdropping 1,666 tokens per share, distributing 60,000 shares.
Recently, new coins have mostly dropped right after launch, so with this batch of airdrop tokens, XDP still rising is a pretty good performance.
However, OKX is also running an XDP trading reward campaign, so some of the volume might be driven by funds chasing the event; now some are taking over, but whether it can hold steady after the event ends is more worth watching.
On the other hand, ZEC dropped nearly 9%, but its trading volume reached $139 million; the biggest loser ICX fell 14.64%, but its volume was only over $70,000, so the weight of these two declines is quite different.
Other gains:
ZBCN +25.51%, GRASS +24.58%, CRV +22.96%, AAVE +17.19%
The overall market cap rose slightly by 0.5%, but total trading volume actually fell by 3.55%, with funds still rotating among a few coins.
This is just an observation of the OKX market, not investment advice.