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A new week has begun, and I'm laying out this week's powder kegs first.
First, CPI on Tuesday night. The minutes said most officials still want to raise rates, non-farm payrolls came as a cold surprise, so now all eyes are on this one inflation number. If the data is soft, rate hike expectations will be completely extinguished. If the data is strong, the positions liquidated last week will have to be liquidated again.
Second, the Middle East. Riyadh airport was bombed four times in 48 hours, with over 320 casualties, including one American citizen killed. Trump is considering direct US military involvement. On the other side, Iran says the US has accepted some conditions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz is possible. While escalating on one hand, talks are ongoing on the other. Whether oil prices will rocket or settle at the negotiation table this week, no one knows.
Third, the most covert, the midterm elections. Goldman Sachs drew a chart showing that as oil prices rise from $3 to $5 per gallon, the Democrats' chances increase by four points, with a 65% probability of sweeping both chambers. Bank of America is even more severe, saying if the Democrats truly sweep, the stock market could plunge 10%. Gasoline prices have become votes, votes have become market variables—this chain of events hasn't been seen before.
On the market side, BTC is at 83,641, recovering a bit over the weekend; ETH at 2,538; ZEC at 1,267. The liquidation fees from last week have just been cleaned up, and this week the three powder kegs come one after another.
My rhythm is no moves before Tuesday; I'll keep accounts after each powder keg explodes. Everyone remembers the outcome of last week's itchy hands.
Which explosion are you most afraid of this week? CPI, the Middle East, or the elections?
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $ETH $OKB Starting Monday, I'll first see who can hold on
$BTC This week, I'm more interested in its performance after the rebound.
It dropped about 2.2% in the past week, but still rose about 7.8% in the past month, so it's more suitable to view it as a phased adjustment for now.
The initial rise can easily make people relax, but the subsequent pullback is more valuable for reference.
If the pullback isn't deep and it quickly pushes upward again, it indicates the recovery is continuing; if the gains quickly disappear, expectations shouldn't be raised yet.
For now, I won't directly count a big surge in individual coins as a market-wide strengthening.
In the new week, I'll first look at continuous performance; a single bullish candle isn't enough to answer this question.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
$HYPE has moved up a bit, but short-term pressure hasn't disappeared.
The price went from around 85.7 back to about 86.8, up roughly 1.3%; it still fell about 6.3% over the past week.
This rebound is acceptable, but the strength isn't enough to turn bullish.
I'm more concerned whether the next pullback can hold this progress. Otherwise, the price going back and forth just means increased volatility without better direction.
$OKB's weekly performance is relatively stable.
It fell about 1.5% in the past week and rose about 9.6% in the past month, with a smaller adjustment range.
Going forward, we need to see if this stability can turn into upward momentum.
Only if it keeps up when the market warms up is there reason to continue paying attention; if it just falls less, I'll acknowledge its resilience but won't casually add expectations of leading gains.
#跟着OKX打卡2049 The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is self-control. Understand before taking action, and don't exhaust yourself in uncertain market conditions.
Current market situation:
Bitcoin $BTC has already tried to reclaim 84,000. It started stirring before the CPI release. What big move will this time bring?
Before the CPI data is released, the market is mostly a tentative game of funds, a typical pre-news volatility.
Don't let short-term rallies drive you to blindly chase orders. Before the data comes out, there will likely be back-and-forth tugging, and the upward push could be a bull trap.
Opportunities are right in front of you, but self-control is even more tested. If you don't understand, just watch. There's no need to heavily bet on direction before the news lands to avoid losing principal from whipsaw movements.
Xiaoma wants to say that before this market arrives, everyone must hold back and wait for the news confirmation to see the market trend. It's better to be cautious and not go against the trend. What are your thoughts on this CPI, Hakimi? Feel free to discuss in the comments!
Currently, Xiaoma's positions:
$ETH Return rate: -492.35%,
Profit/Loss: -1500.07 USDT
$BTC Return rate: -42.88%,
Profit/Loss: -89.91 USDT
⚠️ This does not constitute any investment advice.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $DOGE DOGE: A dog at 0.086, does it still deserve to be called the “King of Retail Investors”?
DOGE is at $0.0860 today, down 0.73% in 24h, down 7.3% in 7 days. Don’t laugh, the trading volume is 419M, still the top in the meme world. DOGE’s logic has never been about cash flow, but about “attention + Musk + retail consensus.”
The market is neutral today, DOGE didn’t spike wildly, indicating short-term hot money has moved to higher Beta places like NEAR and HYPE. But DOGE has its status in the community: every late or mid bull market rebound, DOGE’s movement is the red light signaling “retail investors are back.”
Trading behavior: DOGE’s daily chart is heavily influenced by BTC and US stock risk appetite. When Tesla/Nasdaq are strong, DOGE tends to follow; when US Treasury yields rise and DXY strengthens, DOGE falls first. Today, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.24%, which is not a good environment for DOGE.
The playbook is simple:
0.08 not broken: old retail cost zone
0.09–0.10: sentiment repair zone
0.12 with volume surge: retail returns
0.07 broken: risk retreat
Don’t talk valuation with DOGE, talk about the “sentiment thermometer.” Today’s temperature is neither high nor low, don’t go all in betting on Musk’s tweets. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $DOGE Brothers, after holding back for so long, it's finally my turn to take a big bite!
This long position on $MAGIC was entered at 0.10636, current price is 0.14176, floating profit +33.27U, return rate +99.84%, almost doubled. Honestly, after getting slapped in the face shorting before, I immediately admitted my mistake and reversed my position. This time I finally caught the right rhythm.
Why could I hold this time?
First, mainstream coins are sideways, hot money is all flowing into small altcoins. MAGIC has a light market cap, with blockchain gaming and AI concepts, it flies once it catches fire. Second, after the rally, the pullback is very shallow, buying support keeps holding below, indicating funds haven't withdrawn, it's not a pump and dump. Third, once the direction is confirmed, no messing around, no watching the chart obsessively, no shaky hands, profits come naturally.
BEAT and BICO are still stuck, but this trade restored my confidence. When the trend comes, go with it, don't fight the market, and definitely don't blindly chase highs in altcoin markets. I'm planning to take profits in batches to lock in gains.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 BTC Market Analysis Report: The US Dollar, US Treasury Yields, and Oil Prices Strengthen in Sync, $BTC Under Pressure
Last Friday, the US Dollar Index rose for the fourth consecutive week, closing at 102.22; the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.246%, and the 2-year yield rose to 4.800%. The sustained high levels of the dollar and Treasury yields indicate ongoing market liquidity pressure, which may weaken investors' willingness to allocate to risk assets like Bitcoin. $BTC
Meanwhile, spot gold increased by 1.47%, closing at $4194.45/oz, and silver rose by 2.78%. The strength in precious metals reflects continued market demand for safe-haven and asset allocation, but whether funds will further flow into Bitcoin depends on changes in market risk appetite.
In the energy market, WTI crude oil rose 0.45% and Brent crude oil increased 0.24%, influenced by a hurricane approaching the Gulf of Mexico and the shutdown of some offshore US oil production. If oil prices continue to rise and exacerbate inflationary pressures, it could further limit the Federal Reserve's room to cut rates, indirectly suppressing Bitcoin. $ETH
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% 交易员时光大叔｜中年开始学交易的散修者，一起共修 K 线人生。 🔹 级别嵌套
长级别 16H ｜ 关键级别 6H ｜ 次级别 45分钟 → 15分钟 🔹 现状
比特币 16 小时反弹走顶后，第二次回到本级别零轴——现在站在一个"岔路口"： 直接往下走？ 还是再反弹一次？ 🔹 推演（两条路） 路线 A：6小时突破零轴 → 16小时启动"二次反弹"
但这次反弹有硬要求—— 必须有效拉升：反弹的黄白线（DIF）要高过前一次高点，才叫升级 如果黄白线低于前高 = 动能不足、无效拉升 → 反弹夭折 若真突破，按级别逻辑，行情将奔向 32小时 → 两日线。 路线 B：6小时上不去 → 继续向下 🔹 关键位：6小时零轴
16小时会不会启动二次反弹，完全取决于 6小时能否被小级别反弹顶破零轴。 🔹 操作 高位持有的空头对冲单：一旦 6小时突破零轴，就要先出来（因为那意味着 16小时要反弹了） 低位多头：可继续持有，盯住 6小时 小级别：45分钟反弹已升级（但仍属背离、升级没走完），正在走 15分钟反弹 ⚠️ 周末横盘时间多，小级别涨跌反复，别在盘整里乱动手。 #BTC #K线动能 #技术分析These coins will have large unlocks this week, keep a close watch:
At 4 AM on October 12, $APT will unlock 11.31 million tokens, worth about $9.5 million, accounting for 0.64% of the circulating supply.
At 8 AM on October 15, $STRK will unlock 127 million tokens, worth about $13.9 million, accounting for 3.37% of the circulating supply.
At 8 PM on October 15, $SEI will unlock 55.56 million tokens, worth about $3.7 million, accounting for 0.84% of the circulating supply.
At 8 PM on October 16, ARB will unlock 92.65 million tokens, worth about $18.4 million, accounting for 1.56% of the circulating supply.
At 8 AM on October 17, DBR will unlock 618 million tokens, worth about $12 million, accounting for 10.25% of the circulating supply, the highest proportion.
At 9:03 AM on October 17, CRO will unlock 1.17 billion tokens, worth about $69.5 million, accounting for 2.33% of the circulating supply, the largest amount.
Remember: unlocking does not mean an immediate dump, but keep an eye on price and volume around the unlock dates.Brothers, the $ZEC shorts have been smashing for three days but still haven't broken through. Now it's the bulls' turn to perform, targeting 1400!
I entered a long position at 1,277.67, current price is 1,276.91, basically flat, no panic. ZEC has been slowly pulling back and gathering strength at the bottom from the day before yesterday through today. Although the pace is slow, it hasn't fallen further and is gradually increasing. The long-short ratio is 26% bulls to 74% bears, bears have an absolute advantage, but the price just won't drop — this indicates the bears are passively taking hits, and the selling pressure is being slowly absorbed.
Looking at the order book, there is a row of sell orders above from 1,277.47 to 1,277.52, but the volume is small. Below, there is a buy order at 1,277.33 supporting with 7.99, so it won't break down. It's been consolidating sideways for two to three days; since it can't be smashed down, this wave will definitely rebound. After a drop, a rebound is inevitable — this is the basic tactic of market makers controlling the market. ZEC fell from 1700 to 1200, a 30% drop, now consolidating at the bottom. NU7 upgrade on November 5, 98.9% of holders support retaining the halving, and on-chain whales withdrew 8,600 coins.
I will continue holding my long position, defending at 1,180, with a target first at 1,400. If it doesn't break down, it can only go up.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC surged to 84000, and many people thought it was heading for a new high. But watching the market, I just feel this rebound looks a bit fake.
The rhythm is most likely to first test the resistance at 84000, then pull back to 81000 to 82000 to find support, rather than a straight rally. If it were truly a one-way uptrend, volume and sentiment would have already caught up.
The key is the 83500 to 84500 range. If it can't break through, the risk of a second drop will significantly increase; whether the weekly close over the weekend can hold above 83500 is the short-term dividing line for bullish and bearish sentiment.
I won't chase the highs; I'll wait for a pullback confirmation before making a move. $ETH $BTC10.12
After BTC's market rebounded from 80,000 and stabilized above 81,800, I said this market was going to break through 83,500. Now the price has reached above 83,000, fluctuating around 83,500. This price is already very favorable for spot bottom-fishing.
Of course, if it's short-term swing leverage, my long position at 82,900 has already gained most of the profit by 83,800, with 4 BTC left. Why am I closing my longs? It's not that I'm bearish, but because the initial position was too large, and I am cautious, so I reduce risk appropriately. After all, black swan events are unpredictable.
A pullback is an opportunity to go long. The previous strategy was given: after breaking through 83,500 and stabilizing above 82,000, you can go long boldly. Despite many bearish factors, BTC and ETH are still rebounding against the trend, indicating strong bottom-funding support. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Event: The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) index from Glassnode has crossed above the 1.0 threshold after more than 10 days in the loss zone. Detailed Analysis Notes: Technical significance of the 1.0 mark: When STH-SOPR is below 1.0, short-term investors (holding under 155 days) are panic selling at a loss. The index rising above 1.0 signals confirmation that they have stopped the sell-off and started taking slight profits. Psychological support setup: In a healthy uptrend, the 1.0 mark.Term Structure Radar
$SOL mark spread is positive, but the best bid for buy near sell far is already inverted. Mark near-far spread +0.52%, best bid for buy near sell far spread -0.56%.Over the weekend, when ZEC was hovering around 1226, I resisted going in empty-handed, but come Monday morning, I almost saw it touch 1300—now it has dropped back to around 1270, and my hands are itchier than over the weekend.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
Answer: I resisted again, but this time it’s even harder. The 24-hour high was about 1299, the low around 1220, current price hovering near 1270—after the surge, it pulled back, almost the same pattern as those previous times when my hands itched, only this time the spike was higher. CPI/PPI data is still coming, and I don’t want to be the one catching the falling knife, but the feeling of "missing out" is real.
To be clear, it’s not about being more accurate in prediction, but about telling myself over the weekend not to chase the highs—and I stuck to that on Monday. The itch around 1290 isn’t enough to make me change my mind and chase a candle that’s already pulled back.
$ZEC
A sincere question: this feeling of “resisting empty-handed, others surge then pull back, and yourself getting itchier,” are you A) already got a little in, or B) still watching empty-handed? Have you ever felt this? Share in the comments, I’ll reply one by one.$BTC
After BTC broke out of the narrow range, what has the buyer truly changed?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 82800—84200 USDT, change +1.06%, trading volume approximately 174.45 million USDT.
Both the window's high and low points are higher than yesterday's observation range, providing evidence of an overall upward shift in the trading area. However, the range shift does not identify the buyer's identity, nor does it prove that ETF funds have turned; old high-position chips may still be cashing out during the recovery.
I will check whether the pullback after reclaiming 84200 holds. If it falls back below 82800 and cannot recover, the explanation for the range increase is downgraded; if the low point continues to rise, it increases the judgment of demand continuity.Ledger hardware wallet implanted? $86 million mystery, the real danger is the trust chain!
#Ledger confirmed one involved device had unauthorized hardware implantation
My view is:
The most alarming aspect of this incident is not that hardware wallets are unsafe, but that you think you bought a device from the official channel, yet you can't be sure it hasn't been tampered with from factory to delivery.
Ledger has confirmed one involved device had unauthorized hardware implantation, but whether the suspected $86 million loss is all related to this has not yet been confirmed.
This also reminds us that the security of hardware wallets depends not only on the chip and code, but the supply chain can also be a vulnerability. No matter how secure the device itself is, if the initialization process or mnemonic phrase has been leaked, assets can still be stolen.
It is recommended that devices purchased through CryptoBilis in the last 90 days and not yet initialized should not be used; for those already activated, quickly verify risks through official channels and consider migrating to wallets created with brand new mnemonic phrases. New mnemonic phrases must be generated on trusted devices and must never be entered on websites or sent to customer service.
As members of the crypto community, we should pay attention not only to the final loss amount but also to the range of affected devices, attack vectors, and whether official channels can establish more reliable anti-tampering verification.
Remember: the core of self-custody is not hiding the private key, but ensuring the private key is only in your own hands from the moment it is generated. $BTC $ETH Over the weekend I said: 83k counts as a half-open spring grinding wheel, Monday's opening will speak for itself. As a result, I touched 84200 during the night, and now it's back near 83500—there was a lift, but the pullback was quite fast.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
Answer: Monday's candle first surged then pulled back. 24-hour high 84200, low 82800, current price about 83544—above the 83k grinding wheel from the weekend, it did poke a stab, but didn't hold 84. Farside's latest is still the 10/9 position with about +21 million contracts outstanding; the big outflow remains; the knife is still hanging before the 10/14 CPI/PPI.
My plan: don't chase longs near 84; those short shouldn't rush to flip, first see if 83500 can be ground back into a floor, not a one-night stand.
$BTC
Where do you stand now: A) Monday's 84 surge then pullback can still follow, or B) a fake lift with the knife still before CPI? Comment below, I'll reply one by one.Brothers, $ZEC has been consolidating sideways for two to three days. If it can't break down, it just can't break down. I see this wave rebounding to 1400!
I entered a long position at 1,211.31, current price is 1,268.97, floating profit 14.34%. On the order book, there is a row of sell orders from 1,268.95 to 1,269.05, but the volume is small, the largest is only 6.70. The buy orders from 1,268.84 to 1,268.94 are sparse, but the price just won't fall, indicating the bears are passively taking hits. The long-short ratio is 74% longs to 26% shorts, longs are starting to dominate.
ZEC fell from 1700 to 1200, down nearly 30%. During this period, it has been repeatedly bottoming around 1200, consolidating sideways for two to three days, just not breaking down. What does not breaking down mean? It means the bears' strength has already waned, and the selling pressure has mostly been absorbed. After a drop, a rebound is inevitable; this is the basic tactic of market makers controlling the price.
NU7 upgrade is scheduled for November 5, block time will be cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, 98.9% of coin holders voted to keep the halving mechanism, the fundamentals are truly improving. On-chain whales are still accumulating, withdrawing 8,600 ZEC from exchanges.
I continue to hold my long position entered at 1,211.31, with a stop loss at 1,180, and the target is first set at 1,400.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Yo, it's been a while since we've seen a large $ETH top-up from the Ethereum Foundation 🤨
In the past 6 hours, its associated addresses have cumulatively topped up 4393 ETH, worth 11.13 million USD, with an average top-up price of $2534; these two addresses received 59,751 ETH transferred from the Ethereum Foundation 10 years ago
If this is indeed a sell-off, based on the usual "Foundation sells coins only at the peak" fantasy script, could it be...
Wallet addresses
0x4c4F7B7c53357616EbddD6b901D55b7F9B5D2b94
0x999D5F1fcfcc36A840Dd726709BCf38B6B20229cBrushing away this thin, cicada-wing-like layer of weekend sediment, beneath lies nothing but the dense white bones of traps set for bulls.
Under the sunlight, nothing is new. Today's $SOL, seemingly a sturdy stone pillar around 111.42, is nothing but a fake triumphal arch painted with inferior plaster before the fall of ancient Rome. Weekend liquidity has dried up like the Euphrates riverbed after two thousand years, with volume long extinct. At times like this, a one or two-point pump dares to claim the dawn of a new dynasty?
Opening the bamboo slips of ancient civilizations' rise and fall, any high-rise forcibly built during drought periods is washed away by floods on Monday's open, leaving only ruins. The upper Bollinger Band at 112.74 is the weathered dome this site cannot surpass; RSI wanders at 57.9, neither robust like ancient winds nor solid like a settled bottom. This is not a foundation revival; it’s a typical weekend grave robber’s fleeting spike, meant to trap naive adventurers ignorant of cycles.
Holding the geological Luoyang shovel, deep lithology tells me: the truly solid bedrock still waits to settle hundreds of meters below.
- Target: $SOL 🔴
- Entry: 111.00 - 112.50
- TP1: 108.50
- TP2: 105.00
- SL: 114.20
Illusory shards will eventually shatter; the gravity of history never absents.
#CoinMoveAlertThis profit makes me feel both honored and fearful, afraid that the market will react tomorrow and blacklist me. Before the market fully kicks off, $ADA is repeatedly grinding at a high level, but the volume is getting smaller and smaller, showing strong signs of a bull trap.
I noticed clear resistance above and insufficient support, so I signaled to enter ADA short positions in batches, opening at 0.2560. The current price is 0.2496, with a short position profit rate of +126.95%. The big gain was worth the wait, feeling just right.
Take the major profit first by closing 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost as a protection level. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; don’t be greedy for the last bit.
Risk control done upfront is called rationality; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
Better to miss a rebound than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
Now is not the time to rush; wait for a more comfortable position in the next round and a new structure to emerge. I will notify immediately.
$BNB $XRP $BTC ETF continues to see outflows, macro is hawkish, overall trend is bearish. But 35 million short positions just exploded in 24 hours, short-term it’s possible the main force will first pump to lure longs then dump.
Institutional views (divergent): Standard Chartered Bank still maintains a $100,000 year-end target for Bitcoin, but figures like JAN3 CEO warn the market may enter a deeper correction cycle.
Key resistance level: $84,500
Key support level: $82,000
Long-short ratio: Retail and large holders still heavily holding long positions.
Binance retail long-short ratio 1.4038, OKX retail long-short ratio 1.42.
Large holders: large holder count long-short ratio 1.4981, large holder position long-short ratio as high as 1.5377.
$ETH $ZEC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价 October 12, 2026 | $BTC Intraday Market Analysis Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,595 after rebounding sharply from $80,351 to $84,177. Price is now consolidating around $83,600, but the recovery is showing signs of losing momentum. The 1-hour MA200 near $84,000 and the 4-hour MA60 around $84,100 are acting as resistance. Meanwhile, the MACD red histogram bars are shrinking, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually fading. 📊 Intraday Trading Range: $82,700–$84,200 - Resistance: $84,200GRASS had about 8.68 million contracts open at 16:55 yesterday, and about 10.25 million contracts open at 9:54 today.
OKEx spot price is currently around $0.8846, up about 30.5% in 24 hours, less than 1% below the intraday high of $0.8904. From 8:00 to 9:00, the trading volume was about $473,000, which is 3.6 times the median hourly volume of about $132,000 over the previous 24 full hours.
Yesterday, when the price rose, open interest was still shrinking. Now volume, price, and contract positions are all rising together, so I am more cautious about a pullback from the high. The current funding rate is about 0.005%, which does not indicate whether the new positions are long or short.
If the subsequent full hour closes above $0.8904 and trading volume remains significantly higher than $132,000, I will revise this cautious stance. If the close falls back below $0.8751 and open interest remains high, then it depends on whether the new positions can withstand a pullback.
$GRASS BTC short-term strategy suggestions:
$BTC #星球日报
Long positions held (preferred): Hold long positions in the 83,300-83,700 range, stop loss at 83,000 (gap + lower edge of the pivot), targets at 84,400 (reduce by 1/3) → 84,723 (reduce by 1/3) → 85,531-86,850 (close all).
For those without positions (two entry methods):
1.
Dip buy: Buy on a stable rebound at 83,300-83,500 (15-minute bottom fractal), stop loss at 82,900, target 84,400-85,500;
2.
Breakout chase: Buy on volume breakout above 84,400 (hourly volume > 1.5 billion), stop loss at 83,850, target 85,531-86,850.
Risk control red line: If price falls below 83,196 (lower edge of pivot + gap fill) → reduce position by half; if it falls below 82,198 → exit all positions (D wave judgment error, revert to large box thinking).
Hedging reference: 87,200-87,400 (double top area) is the ultimate resistance for the D wave; upon reaching this area, reassessment is needed (double top triple attack or volume breakout).
Current status: 83,678, inside the iron curtain, at the foot of the POC. This is the classic "attack position" for the D wave — 400 points above is the upper edge of the iron curtain, 500 points below is the invalidation line, with a risk-reward ratio above 1:2. Hold longs and wait for breakout, stay out and wait for dip if no position, do not chase the first charge at 84,050. We watch financial news every day and often see these terms: Federal Reserve, interest rate hike, interest rate cut, CPI, non-farm payrolls, inflation, U.S. Treasury yields. Then the news says: CPI exceeds expectations, non-farm payrolls are strong, U.S. Treasury yields rise, the market lowers rate cut expectations, BTC is under pressure. New investors look at this and think: I recognize every word, but I don't understand what it means when put together. Today, no complicated formulas. I'll explain it all at once in a way that even the village elder sitting at the door drinking tea can understand. 1️⃣ What exactly is the Federal Reserve? The Federal Reserve, full name: United States Federal Reserve System. You can simply think of it as: the central banking system of the United States. It is not an ordinary commercial bank. You can't go to the Federal Reserve and open an account to deposit $5,000. It mainly manages a few fundamental aspects of the U.S. financial system: interest rates, monetary environment, and banking system stability. The U.S. Congress gives the Federal Reserve two core goals: to maximize employment and keep prices stable. This is often heard as: maximum employment + price stability. The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation around 2% in the long term. Simply put: the Federal Reserve is somewhat like the "main water valve manager" in the U.S. economy. If the economy is too hot, it tries to turn the water down a bit. If the economy is too cold, it turns the water up a bit. This "water" mainly means: money and credit. 2️⃣ What does "interest rate hike" mean? Many people think: when the Federal Reserve raises rates, it means all loan interest rates across the U.S. uniformly increase by 1%. That's not the case.Scumbag observation BTC update 10.12
From the candlestick chart, Bitcoin has rebounded for 3 days and reached near the middle axis of the box. Currently, it is suppressed by this position (83888). In the short term, let's see if it will pull back again to around 82500 or even 81200.
So the strategy can be to open a position near 82500 for quick in and out,
Open a position near 81200 with a stop loss if it falls below the low point on October 8, 80350.
Take profit at 82500, 83800, ...... A brief analysis of BTC short-term trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions)
$BTC #星球日报
Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory confirms a short-term trend reversal to bullish, with 84,400 as the mid-term confirmation line
Chan Theory's central axis has shifted upward into the Iron Curtain, with three types of buy points approaching
Wave Theory D wave target is 84,700-86,850
Volume-price relationship shows lowest volume spring + volume expansion + Monday morning session + 240 million Delta, indicating real buyer return
Order flow Delta MA12 turns positive for the first time in a week, POC decisive battle imminent
Price action reversal candlestick + gap up + triple strength.
Six dimensions have fully turned bullish for the first time since October 5 — Wave C ended at 80,316, Wave D started. This shorting cycle (October 7 to October 9) has ended according to discipline, now entering a long cycle. Teacher A's Real Trading Record｜Dollar-Cost Averaging $SOL Day 282, Holding 130 SOL 💰
📅 Check-in Day: Day 282
💰 Current Holdings: 130.05 SOL
📈 Current Profit/Loss: +50.73% (Unrealized profit about 32770 CNY)
💎 Current Price: ~111.01 USDT
The market is still experiencing intense fluctuations at a high level. Last week it just hit a new all-time high of 110,000, and today it has fallen back to around 96,000. This is the real state of live trading; those with weak hearts really risk a "roller coaster" ride. 🎢
My strategy remains very simple:
1️⃣ Regardless of rise or fall, strictly follow the plan to dollar-cost average.
2️⃣ Buy more chips when it falls, firmly hold chips when it rises.
3️⃣ Look at the market less, live life well.
In this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. Holding these 130 coins, waiting quietly for the flowers to bloom. 🌻
Are there any friends also dollar-cost averaging $SOL? Raise your hand in the comments! 🙋♂️
SOL dollar-cost averaging #OKXPlanet #RealTradingRecord #DollarCostAveragingCheckIn #Solana #LongTermism #Cryptocurrency #InvestmentFinance #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $SOL $XRP is rolling out a new script here.💥
Evernorth is using a SPAC to go public, directly squeezing into the US stock market with a very straightforward goal: hoard XRP. Does this smell like the MicroStrategy play? The old script with new actors.
But what does this have to do with my market? Basically nothing.😅
Bitcoin is still repeatedly hovering below 84,000, ETFs just recorded the largest net outflow in three and a half months, and big holders are still selling coins to pay taxes during tax season. US Treasury yields capped at 5.6%, no fresh liquidity off-exchange, and high leverage is just digging into each other's pockets on-exchange.
One treasury company going public won't solve the funding drought.
So, when you see "US stocks" and "treasury," don't get ahead of yourself. It's positive for the long term; the wall between traditional capital and crypto is indeed crumbling.🧱
But now is not the excuse to chase highs.
The market is like a dull knife pulling meat—don't bet on a one-way move. Avoid leveraged contracts, lock in your spot holdings tight, and hold your USDT firmly. Wait for tax season to finish dumping, wait for the US Treasury frenzy to pass, wait for the market to dig a real bottom, then go pick up cheap chips.
Big players paving the way is a thing for the future; your principal needs to survive this winter first.❄️
This round of $XRP hoarding via backdoor listing—do you think it can run an independent rally, or will it freeze along with the broader market?🥶#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BERA The official management of BERA is just a scammer who profits by exploiting investors. Last year, their ecosystem product BVT caused investors' stakes to be completely wiped out and exploited. This year, they launched another ecosystem product — BERA Mission, which offers interest through staking BERA. Without contract expiration, stakes were arbitrarily wiped out, causing losses to all investors. That's not all; shamelessly, the BERA Mission product has not been taken down and is still running on the BERA chain, intending to continue exploiting investors. Truly disgraceful!!!!On Monday morning, BTC returned above 83K, and ETH also recovered around $2500. Market sentiment was slightly more stable than over the weekend. But the more the market looks "not so panicked," the easier it is for people to procrastinate on small matters until the last moment: money that must be spent today and this week is still kept in positions that fluctuate with the market. This is not a grand narrative; it's a very specific problem. The AI membership needed at 9 AM, the code tool quota to replenish in the afternoon, the gift cards to buy in the evening, and the shopping budget to handle in the next 3 to 7 days—these amounts might be only $20, $30, or $100. The problem is, these sums are too small to justify going through a whole complicated process, yet important enough that if they can't be paid, workflows and life arrangements are immediately disrupted. Recently, signals in the payment market have been very clear: stablecoins are no longer just seen as transit assets in trading; more and more scenarios are discussing AI agent payments, digital goods settlements, subscription deductions, and small cross-border consumption. In other words, the real value in the next phase is not "whether assets can appreciate," but "whether assets can be conveniently converted into usable budgets when needed." Many people lose out here: trading positions, stable balances, and spending budgets are all mixed together. When the market rises a bit, they hesitate to break them up; when it falls a bit, they don't want to act at the low point; and when the bill day arrives, they realize that fixed expenses like AI subscription deductions, gift card purchases, and shopping budgets won't wait for the market to give you a comfortable price. You canThis wave of Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH has moved up again, so I need to adjust my view accordingly. Previously, I thought the short-term trend was bearish with some oscillation, but this morning Bitcoin climbed back above 83,000, reaching a high of 84,200, and Ethereum also rebounded from around 2,500 to above 2,540. The short-term trend is indeed stronger than in the past few days.
I had been watching the 83,000 resistance level closely. Now that the price is back above 83,000 and after a pullback it hasn't broken below it yet, it indicates that the short-term recovery is still ongoing. However, Bitcoin still faces a test between 84,000 and 84,500, and although Ethereum is following the rise, it hasn't truly broken through the 2,555–2,580 range.
This rally is also supported by news. Expectations of easing geopolitical risks in recent days have improved market sentiment temporarily, but that doesn't mean sustained buying has returned. Moreover, the CPI data is about to be released, and the market tends to be volatile before the data comes out. We shouldn't call it a bull trap just because of a 4-hour candle pullback, nor should we assume a reversal just because of a rebound.
Therefore, I am now slightly more bullish on Bitcoin in the short term, while remaining cautious on Ethereum. With important data approaching and prices near resistance levels, chasing longs directly may not be worthwhile. I prefer to wait for a better entry point or wait to see if a breakout holds on a retest before considering participation.CORE is a small-cap altcoin without an industry-standard whale threshold (unlike BTC which is fixed at ≥1000 BTC, or ETH commonly at ≥10000 ETH). Generally, within the community, there are two commonly used thresholds for tracking CORE whales (Nansen / Lookonchain): 1. CORE Mega Whales (capable of impacting the market): ≥1,000,000 CORE 2. Large holders/Shark tier: 100,000 to 1,000,000 CORE Core characteristics (the biggest difference from BTC and ETH) 1. Extremely high concentration of holdings The top wallets include: Core DAO treasury, team/investor lockup contracts, staking contracts, and exchange cold wallets. The top 10 addresses hold a very high proportion of the circulating supply, which is the fundamental reason why CORE’s volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH. 2. No fixed official number - The ≥1,000,000 CORE tier: the real-time number of addresses is usually in the dozens (dynamic, changing with unlocking, staking, and transfers) - The ≥100,000 CORE (large holders): a few hundred addresses Many addresses are staking contracts, foundation treasury, or exchange reserves, not individual large holders. The number of independent mega whales who can freely sell and actively trade is much smaller than the number of addresses. 3. Data pain points: CORE’s on-chain statistics are not as mature as BTC or ETH. Santiment and Glassnode do not provide stable whale-specific statistics like they do for Bitcoin and Ethereum; data can only be found on Core Scan0.09% margin rate! BCH is fighting desperately to hold on, while ETH and SOL, the two big brothers, are dragging hard! I'm really about to be squeezed dry.
Opening the account, my hands are trembling. This is not trading crypto; this is clearly wildly testing the limits on the Grim Reaper's desk!
Position update:
BCH: The last hope of the whole village! Full 10X leverage, entry at 261.02, mark at 284.63, unrealized profit +35.34U, ROI +82.95%! 426U principal, 42U margin, stubbornly holding up the sky for me. BCH really tried its best, but it just can’t carry the load!
ETH: The number one bottomless pit! Full 5X leverage, entry at 2718.24, mark at 2533.15. Unrealized loss -150.39U, ROI -36.51%! 5X leverage somehow feels like 50X despair, truly hopeless!
$BCH $ETH $SOL
$SOL: The second disaster zone! Full 20X leverage, entry at 115.63, mark at 110.92. Unrealized loss -62.53U, ROI -85.28%! The second brother who once doubled me now falls harder than anyone else, almost devouring the principal completely.
Honestly speaking: The +35U profit from BCH is just a drop in the bucket compared to the combined 210+U huge losses from ETH and SOL. The worst part is, the overall margin ratio is stuck at 0.09%!
0.09%, brothers! What does that mean? As soon as the market dips even the tiniest bit, even a 0.1% fluctuation, the entire account, including BCH’s hard-earned profits, will instantly be wiped out! There won’t even be time to close positions!
I once swore, “I’ll exit once these two big brothers break even,” but now I realize this is the cruelest vow in crypto. At 0.09% life-or-death line, forget breaking even, it’s uncertain if I’ll even see tomorrow’s sun alive. Waking up in the middle of the night to check forced liquidations, heart racing with every candle on the chart—this is the fate of a contract gambler, and I’ve had enough!
Rational mind screaming: Quickly close all positions and accept the loss, survival is priority!
Gambler’s heart quietly sobbing: What if there’s a V-shaped rebound? Cutting losses before dawn would be a huge regret!
Brothers, with this 0.09% hellish difficulty, what should I do? Should I immediately slash and clear, or keep holding on for a miracle? Please wake me up in the comments, give me a straightforward answer!
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价 Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and when your eyes aren't glued to it, your mind stays calm. Last night before bed, $AEON made another sharp move up, but with low trading volume and no one catching it, it felt like a strong bull trap. I judged it wouldn't hold, signaling that the rebound was a shorting opportunity.
Shorted at 0.05898, now at 0.05379, a return of +175.65%. The earlier hesitation turned out to be a sweet move.
Panic comes from lack of planning; losses come from overthinking.
Hold as long as the trend is intact; exit when it breaks. Don't fall in love with stocks.
First close 80%, keep 20% at cost to protect; if it bounces back, don't give the profits back. If you haven't entered yet, don't rush—wait for the next move, there will be more opportunities.
$BTC $LAB Mainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses with ≥1000 BTC as BTC whales (whales) - Latest statistics: 2044 addresses with ≥1000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of the circulating supply But! Address ≠ real independent person/institution, this is the easiest pitfall: It includes: exchange cold wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all individual large holders. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, but they actually belong to the same institution. More detailed stratification (another classification standard) - Sharks: 1000–5000 BTC - Whales: 5000–10000 BTC (narrow sense of whale) ≈100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): >10000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses, including MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, large custodians in this category Two key misconceptions 1. It is impossible to accurately know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; one wallet may also hold funds from many users (exchanges), on-chain can only count addresses, cannot distinguish the underlying entities. 2. Different platforms have different thresholds: some media are more lenient and call ≥100 BTC large holders, which increases the number to nearly 20,000 addresses, these should not be confused. Simple one-sentence summary According to the most commonly used standard in the circle 1 Last night I was hoping the market would dip, but instead it went up. No need to rush though, just keep waiting for the right opportunity; there's no need to let short-term fluctuations disrupt your rhythm.
$ZEC: Almost back to 1300U. Already took profits around 1100+, currently holding only a small short position. If it rises near 1300, I'll consider adding to the position; if not, I'll keep waiting.
$HYPE: Still around 86U, the trend remains weak. Three days of gains don't outweigh one day of losses; it's really wearing. Next, we'll see if it can strengthen—short-lived rebounds alone aren't enough.
$LIT: The long-short ratio is only 0.77, and open interest hasn't dropped significantly, so short positions might be concentrated. If the price suddenly surges, a short squeeze can't be ruled out. There's still three months until unlocking; whether it will rise before then is uncertain—don't treat speculation as fact.
Finally, I want to remind everyone: for ordinary people entering the investment market with 100,000 yuan, the risks may be far greater than imagined. Many casually say they have 100,000 yuan online, but in reality, how many families can truly afford to invest 100,000 yuan of spare money?
So be sure to invest only spare money and avoid leverage—that's the bottom line!
Don't risk your living expenses or borrowed money. No matter how many opportunities there are in crypto, you can't catch every wave. Trading requires not only direction but also risk control.
Wait when you should wait, take profits when you should take profits. How much you make in the short term isn't the most important thing; being able to preserve your principal and stay in the market long-term is the real skill. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Dogecoin (DOGE) Whale (Mega Whale) Classification Standards (Market Common Criteria) - 🐬 Dolphin: 1 million to 10 million DOGE - 🦈 Shark: 10 million to 100 million DOGE - 🐳 Whale: ≥100 million DOGE (can significantly influence the market) - 🦑 Super Mega Whale: ≥1 billion DOGE (institutional/exchange level) Quantity and Chip Situation According to Santiment statistics: there are about 140 wallets holding ≥100 million DOGE, these addresses collectively hold over 108 billion DOGE, with chip concentration far higher than BTC and ETH. Key Big Pitfall: The top on-chain rich list is not a single whale, but Robinhood's custody cold wallet (about 27.2 billion DOGE, nearly 17.5% of circulating supply), which contains coins from hundreds of thousands of retail investors, not one person; second is Upbit, third is Binance, both are exchange custody wallets, representing user asset custody, not private mega whales. The legendary super address that once held nearly 30% of DOGE was split by the end of 2021 and is no longer a single large holder. Characteristics (Compared to BTC/ETH Whales) 1. DOGE is a meme coin with thinner liquidity; a large private whale's big transfer or dump causes much more violent market fluctuations than BTC or ETH, easily triggering panic and chain liquidations. 2. High chip concentration: the top 10 addresses together account for the circulating supply#Institutions Keep Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
The leader has something to say
Institutions are positioning, yet BTC is still under pressure.
Morgan Stanley's MSBT holds about 10,639 BTC, and Strive also plans to continue expanding treasury allocations through preferred stock financing. Long-term funds are indeed coming in.
But short-term funds are withdrawing. From October 7 to 8, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $731 million. On the 9th, only $21.13 million flowed back in, less than 3% of the outflow in the previous two days. The speed of money coming in can't keep up with the speed of money leaving.
BTC has fallen from 87,000 to around 83,000. US Treasury yields and energy prices remain high, and CPI is about to be released. Institutional allocation is a slow variable; short-term selling pressure is a fast variable. Slow money can't catch fast money, so the price can't hold.
I have already entered a long BTC position at 83,000, with a stop loss at 81,500 and a target of 86,000. The short position at 86,500 is still open, with a stop loss at 87,500 and a target between 84,500 and 85,000. Hedging both sides, no heavy positions.
Before CPI is released, no one-sided bets. Long positions look for rebounds, short positions look for pullbacks. Whichever direction hits the target first, reduce that side first. No chasing highs or killing lows, wait for the data to land. $BTC $ETH $MAGIC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.83K correction, don't let orders lose money for you
BTC early session corrected from around 82.7K to near 84K. The most tempting thing isn't the direction, but the feeling that "it looks tradable again." But what I care more about is another thing: when the market just regains liquidity, the order book often doesn't recover synchronously.
Within the same candlestick, whether the quote layers are thick, whether the first level can hold, whether the spread suddenly widens, or whether the trigger conditions push you to a worse position—all these can turn an originally decent judgment into a painful trade.
Many people only review whether the direction was right, rarely reviewing if the trade was executed in a worse order environment. Direction is an opinion; execution quality is the cost. Especially in early session corrections like this, what you should really look at first isn't the button, but whether this path will consume your risk buffer.
My habit is: first choose the asset, then compare quote layers, depth, estimated execution deviation, fees, and trigger conditions, and only then decide where to take the trade. The value of execution-focused platforms like PerpEX lies here: they don't judge price moves for you, but remind you not to take execution quality as a given.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Awesome! $MAGIC long position made a huge 22% profit, this is what real toughness looks like!
Ladies, check out the MAGIC long position in my screenshot, opened at 0.12632, now directly pulled up to 0.13557, a return of +21.94%! While ZEC and BICO are both deep in the red, MAGIC really gave me a breath of fresh air!
Why could I hold this wave? Because the bottom stayed flat for half a month, stubbornly refusing to drop below around 0.12, volume quietly increased, and BingX just launched spot trading, the capital inflow signal was too obvious. I decisively added more longs near 0.126, set stop loss properly, and left the rest to the market makers to push the price up.
Honestly, the ZEC short is still down 42%, BICO long is down 171%, those two drag my account down badly. But this wave with MAGIC at least proved one thing: as long as you catch the right rhythm, don’t chase highs or overleverage, you can still make profits.
My strategy going forward is simple: keep holding MAGIC, first target at 0.1385, if it breaks through then look at 0.152. Set stop loss well, never be greedy. As for ZEC and BICO, I’ll wait for a pullback to find opportunities to deal with them, no reckless averaging down.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 32,000 $BTC transferred into exchanges, my first reaction was that another dump was coming.
But after a closer look, 17,200 of them were moved from the US government wallet to Coinbase Prime. That's the custody channel of the US Marshals Service, which doesn't mean a sale. The real sell pressure to watch is about 14,800.
Honestly, I used to panic when I saw such large on-chain inflows, nervously reducing my position first, then watching it bounce back. I've lost out several times like that.
This time I’ve learned my lesson. The spent coins have an average coin age of 712 days, even older than the 651 days in July. Old coins changing hands isn’t necessarily bad; the worry is if no one is there to take them.
My stance: no short chasing, no rush to bottom-fish. Next, we’ll see if new money enters the market. If it holds, this turnover is just a deleveraging. If not, we’ll talk again.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 $BTC U Sister 10.12 Monday $BTC Strategy
Entry conditions for the strategy: Rebound to the 83700-84000 range, 4-hour K-line shows a long upper shadow, upward momentum is insufficient, a stagnation signal appears, after confirming resistance, try a small short position.
Stop loss position: Price effectively stabilizes above 84700, pressure breaks through, abandon the short strategy and exit immediately.
First take profit target: 82800
Second take profit target: 82300
Previously, a downward wave started from the high point 87249, bottoming at 80344.8, completing the bottom test. The current stage is just a technical rebound repair after a big drop; the overall long-term downward structure has not changed. The 83700-84000 range is a chip pressure zone left from the previous decline. This rebound is a pullback during the downtrend, not a bullish trend reversal. If the rebound's upward momentum is weak, selling pressure will be released again. Strictly avoid chasing the rise to go long; wait for stagnation signals at the pressure zone before setting up short positions.🔥 $BTC On-Chain Data: LTH Transferred 32,000 BTC to Exchanges — Is It a Dump or a Rotation?
Brothers, today's on-chain data is worth a close look——
On October 7-8, long-term Bitcoin holders transferred about 32,000 BTC to exchanges, the second largest scale since the big drop in February this year.
At first glance, is this a dump? Don't rush, let's break it down:
Of these, 17,200 BTC were transferred from a U.S. government wallet to Coinbase Prime — this is an official custody channel, not necessarily for selling. The real potential selling pressure to watch is about 14,800 BTC.
This 14,800 BTC mainly comes from two groups: mid-term holders with coin age 6-12 months, and old coins held for 3-5 years.
A more critical figure: the LTH coins spent on October 8 had an average holding period of 712 days. In July, it was 651 days.
What does this mean? Older coins held longer are starting to move.
I agree with analyst Murphy's view: during the bull-bear transition, distribution by long-term holders isn't necessarily bearish. When selling pressure is released and coins are redistributed, if new funds can absorb it, sufficient rotation actually reduces resistance for the subsequent market.
In short: old coins are moving, but don't rush to call a bear market — the key is who is taking the other side.
What do you think? Is this LTH distribution a top signal or a rotation in a bull market continuation?10.12 Sola $SOL
This rebound is also a pulse-style rise, surging from the low of 109.16 to 112.73 before turning downwards. The downward momentum is very weak, and the overall weak pattern remains unchanged.
The rebound touched the 112.0-112.5 range and immediately faced resistance. This range is a dense trading area of previous highs and also the upper Bollinger band pressure zone, with heavy selling pressure, making it impossible to break through. The key support is set above 113.5 for solid defense. The next focus is on 110.0-109.5; if support breaks, it will test previous lows. #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ ETH current price is $2550.
Bitmine holds 6.016 million coins, accounting for 4.9% of the supply, less than 100,000 coins away from the 5% hard cap.
Tom Lee said: Stop buying when it reaches 5%.
In the same month, he said ETH would break $5000 by the end of the year, and if BTC reaches 100,000, ETH would hit $7500.
A person who has bet his entire fortune on ETH suddenly announces he will stop buying. Think about that.
On October 7th at Token2049, Tom Lee announced on stage: Bitmine will stop buying ETH once its holdings reach 5% of the total supply, which is a hard cap. He also said that after reaching 5%, the company can sell staking rewards to maintain the proportion.
In other words—not only will they stop buying, but they will also sell in the future.
Three days later, in an interview, he said: ETH in this cycle is expected to rise to $25,000 to $50,000, breaking $5000 by the end of the year.
Market data shows traders believe the probability of ETH reaching $5000 by year-end is only 4%.
The first reaction is definitely: If you are so optimistic, why not keep buying?
But the answer might be simple: Bitmine doesn’t want to buy; it can’t buy.
The treasury company’s business model is based on the core logic that "stock price is higher than the value of held coins," then issuing more shares to finance coin purchases. Once the stock price falls below NAV, issuing more shares to buy coins dilutes shareholders.
This year, Bitmine has already repurchased 21 million shares to support the stock price. Lee himself called it "the largest stock buyback in the history of crypto treasury companies" in an announcement. This shows the pressure is real.
The deeper contradiction lies here—
Tom Lee holds about $45 million in unrealized losses on paper.
He simultaneously manages Bitmine’s public forecasts and company strategy. When a person is both a major buyer and a promoter, there is an unavoidable "personal interest" dimension between his optimistic forecasts and company decisions.
This doesn’t mean he is necessarily lying. But investors need to factor this in their judgment.
But we must also acknowledge the other side.
Bitmine’s 5.07 million ETH holdings are already staked, generating about $363 million in annual staking income, fully covering the $30 to $35 million annual dividends on Series A preferred shares.
The company has no reason to be forced to sell core holdings due to funding needs. The hard cap actually eliminates the risk of equity dilution, so shareholders don’t have to worry about unlimited financing to buy coins.
In plain terms: He stopped buying, but it’s not to the extent of crashing the market. It’s just that "the most stable buyer" is leaving.
The question is—who will take over?
In recent weeks, Bitmine has been buying about 15,000 ETH per week, accounting for about 72% of the newly issued supply during the same period. Once it stops, about $7 million of potential daily selling pressure will have no one to absorb it.
ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling $641 million. The second largest ETH treasury company, SharpLink, only bought 5,000 ETH at the low point in June this year.
No successor buyer has appeared yet.
"Is what Tom Lee said correct? Possibly. But there is a structural conflict of interest between what he says and what he does, and this tension itself deserves to be priced in. When the biggest buyer is also the biggest promoter, you need to listen to what he says and watch what he does."
$ETH $ETH $MAGIC $MAGIC 0.1 has been breached, and the bulls' last bit of hope has shattered!😱
Whole number thresholds are never just about price; they are psychological anchors, stop-loss lines, and triggers for leveraged liquidations.📉 Once the order book breaks, protective orders hanging below turn into chained market sell orders, the more it falls, the more crowded it gets, and the faster it drops.
The smart money panel looks just as grim: the average cost for bulls is about 0.12, with 325 addresses deeply trapped for a total of 570,000, and the profit ratio has dropped to only 24%.😵💫 If it can't even hold 0.1, what is there to talk about a reversal?
After the breakdown, support below is thin, and any rebound looks more like a window to escape.🧨 Don't wait until the liquidation waterfall finishes to chase; the trend has already tilted bearish, and going with the bearish trend is wiser than blindly bottom-fishing.🐻⚠️ Not investment advice.We are studying the new P73 CryptoMarket Monitor report on the weekly TF. First, another 10 assets showed potential high marks. Among them are #APT, #FIL, #OP, #TIA. And what unites them all is that they are part of our spot copy portfolio from October 2025. In which we plan to add on market pullbacks during the growth from August to October. Only one of these assets showed a transition to a stable uptrend on the weekly TF by the end of the week - #FIL. For this asset, by the way, this is the first stable uptrend on the weekly$SNDK says three things, all of which are my current true thoughts.
The big BTC correction isn't over yet. It's hovering around 83,000, and I'm waiting for it to drop below 80,000—if it really hits that, I'll go all in. The bull market isn't over; this kind of correction is for a better rise later. Around 78,000 is where I plan to finish buying and start reducing positions.
I'm not adding to SPCX for now. Elon Musk recently said SpaceX's valuation could reach 1 trillion, which sounds exciting. But based on valuation, 167 now isn't cheap. Those wanting to add should wait for a pullback; don't touch the chips bought at the bottom, just hold them.
Storage is actually starting to get cheaper. Micron is around 1,030; the latest earnings report shows strong demand for HBM, with next year's supply basically locked in and contract prices even raised. SanDisk is between 1,580 and 1,640; Citibank gave a target price of 2,100, saying NAND shortages could last until 2028.
My approach is clear: for storage positions, I will slowly switch to SanDisk. I'll keep building on dips, not chasing highs.
Are you guys buying storage now, or waiting for a pullback like me?
$BTC $SPCX $SNDK