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The harshest part of this wave isn't the rise, but the sudden reversal after a surge—on October 8, Starknet announced "quantum resistance, planning to migrate to L1," and $STRK surged 40% in one day, but the words "considering" mean the actual implementation is still scheduled for 2027.
I chose to short at 0.09847, the logic is simple: sentiment has fully priced in expectations, but the ecosystem TVL is still halved from its peak, daily revenue is only a few thousand dollars, the story can't support the price.
Sure enough, on October 13 the market cooled down, BTC dropped 3% dragging altcoins down, STRK gave back 28% in one day, the mark price fell to 0.08616, and my 50x position gained 625% floating profit.
Looking ahead, let's see if 0.086 can hold; on October 15 there will be unlocking selling pressure, so don't be greedy with short-term shorts, taking profits in batches is safer. $BTC $ETH 【ETH ETF Outflows for 10 Consecutive Days, $577 Million Hits Record】
The most noteworthy today is that the Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with nearly $576.9 million accumulated over the past 5 days, marking the largest 5-day outflow since January this year. During the same period, BTC ETFs also experienced a weekly outflow of $681.1 million.
1. What has changed with ETH? BlackRock's ETHA saw a weekly net outflow of $477 million, becoming the main source of withdrawals, as institutions systematically reduce their ETH allocations.
2. Why is this significant? In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $814 million, with long positions accounting for $686 million, indicating a concentrated cleanup of long leverage. ETFs are withdrawing, leverage is bursting, yet ETH's price has not collapsed—this "double kill without a drop" divergence suggests the market is repricing.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans towards an "institution-led deleveraging phase." After funds leave ETH ETFs, some flow into XRP and other assets with higher regulatory certainty, rather than a complete exit from the crypto market.
Next, watch for when ETH ETF outflows turn positive in a single day—that will be the first signal of a shift in institutional sentiment. $ETH Stablecoins decreased by $856 million, does this mean funds are leaving the crypto space?
Seeing the decline in stablecoin market cap, the market easily jumps to the conclusion of capital flight.
But this inference requires more evidence.
Lookonchain's statistics from October 5 to 11 show three notable changes in on-chain activity:
① Total stablecoin market cap decreased by $855.94 million.
② DEX spot trading volume dropped by 19.34% week-over-week.
③ DEX perpetual contract trading volume, however, increased by 8.20%.
I also cross-referenced DefiLlama data, where weekly changes in spot and perpetual contracts also show opposite directions, but due to different statistical scopes, the declines cannot be directly compared.
There are two often overlooked issues here.
First, a decline in stablecoin market cap does not equal the same amount of funds leaving the crypto market. Redemptions, cross-chain supply changes, and other factors need to be separately confirmed.
Second, an increase in perpetual contract trading volume does not necessarily mean bulls or bears dominate.
My interpretation is: what can be confirmed now is that market trading activity is diverging, not that funds have fully withdrawn.
If stablecoins continue to shrink, spot trading remains sluggish, and perpetual contract open interest increases, then further examination of leverage risk accumulation is needed.
Conversely, if spot activity rebounds and stablecoin supply recovers, this divergence may just be a short-term adjustment.
Market direction requires evidence, not conclusions based on a single number.
$BTC $ETH #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
$TSM Revenue hit a new high, with the headline itself saying "To Be Revealed."
▪️ September revenue was 511.86 billion TWD, up 54.6% year-over-year, down 0.6% month-over-month
▪️ Q3 gross margin guidance is 65%–67%, lower than the actual 67.7% in Q2
▪️ The upper and lower bounds of the revenue guidance range have been revised upward for two consecutive quarters
▪️ Gross margin level in the same period last year was about 8 percentage points lower than now
▪️ The only missing part of this report is the gap between the earnings release date and the revenue data
The disagreement is not about whether it sold well, but that "selling more" and "earning more per unit sold" are separated this time.
September revenue rose more than 50% year-over-year but was negative month-over-month — indicating the growth pace is slowing rather than accelerating. More importantly, the gross margin guidance falls between 65%–67%, which is 0.7 to 2.7 percentage points lower than Q2 actual: capacity ramp-up and depreciation front-loading of advanced processes will first show up on the profit side. Revenue is the past, gross margin is its own judgment, and the real numbers have to wait for the earnings report.
The direction is to wait and see — the earnings gross margin needs to hit the upper end of the guidance to be solid; if it falls below 65%, this volume-price divergence continues.$BTC has held its ground, but the money hasn't come back yet
$BTC was around $83,100 last night, basically flat over 24h, $ETH at $2,493 is still grinding down, down 1.9% in 24h. The daytime rebound held, but we need to see what is supporting it: in the first week of October, ETFs saw a total outflow of over $1.2 billion, $ETH funds have been outflowing for 8 consecutive days, money is flowing out. The support comes from spot buying and short covering absorbing selling pressure, not new money entering the market.
Wintermute said something very accurate today: the crypto market relies on incremental funds to survive, and with funds rotating, a six-week counter-trend rebound is hard to sustain. Tomorrow is CPI, inflation expectations are around 3.6%, higher than last month's 3.4%. If it exceeds expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yield will push higher, and tonight's "hold" will just be a pause.
Watch two signals: if $BTC falls below $82,000, it means support is exhausted; if $ETH can't get back above $2,500, the market can't stand on its own.The party stopped last week. After three straight weeks of inflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681 million in net outflows from October 5 to 9, the largest weekly exit since June. On October 13, Bitcoin briefly slipped under $81,000 before clawing back above $83,000, and the pressure came directly from the same buyers who pushed it up. On-chain data shows Bitcoin is now trading right at the average cost basis of ETF holders around $83,700. When price returns to entry, many investors sell. ThOne thing about ZEC that really annoys me is that when it rises, everyone says privacy is the future, but when it falls, it suddenly becomes an "obsolete relic that no one uses."
The speed of this flip-flop is honestly impressive.
But recently, I've been thinking about a more realistic question: if one day Zcash's privacy features become exceptionally good, will the coin price definitely rise?
Not necessarily.
ZEC has a fixed supply cap, and miner rewards will gradually decrease, which indeed provides it with a long-term supply framework. But an increase in privacy transaction usage doesn't mean all users will hold the coin long-term.
Some might just buy $ZEC temporarily, complete the transfer, and then sell immediately. The more convenient the wallet experience, the faster the capital turnover might even be.
So now, I’m not very fond of the saying "privacy demand explodes, ZEC will inevitably skyrocket." Whether demand can translate into sustained buying pressure still has many factors to verify.
Of course, I hope more and more people use Zcash, and I hope the coins I follow will rise. But to really judge the market, I still look at capital flow, circulating supply, and actual usage.
Relying solely on faith, the market might not necessarily buy it.
For the short term, I’ll wait and see. When both demand and buying pressure can show some real substance, then I’ll consider increasing my position. The US September CPI is coming out tomorrow night, and Federal Reserve officials and the market are in a heated debate.
Cleveland Fed President Harker said yesterday that inflationary pressures have "widely spread," not just in energy—tariffs are pushing up corporate costs, and AI data center construction is also competing for electricity and components. She leans toward "small, more frequent" rate hikes.
But the market is not buying it at all. CME data shows a 79.5% probability of holding rates steady in October, with only 20.5% betting on a hike. More importantly, the probability of a rate hike in December is as high as 70.3%—the market's meaning is: pause in October, then decide in December.
The core disagreement centers on tomorrow night's CPI. Institutions expect the overall year-on-year rate to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%, with diesel and transportation costs still transmitting after oil prices surged past $100. But the core CPI month-on-month may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%.
If the core really drops to 0.2%, the market will reinforce the expectation of "pause in October, then decide in December"; if it remains at 0.3% or even higher, the probability of an October hike will climb back above 20%.
As for $BTC, the price is stuck between 82,000 and 83,000, with ETF funds seeing a net outflow of $680 million in the past week, so there is no big capital support in the short term. The core CPI figure tomorrow night will directly determine whether $BTC continues to consolidate or dips further. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 听着挺顺，但市场不按号码牌发钱。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 现在大饼市占率回到约60%，同期169个活跃币种里，有158个在这轮回调里跌得比它更深。很多人看到占比上去，就以为资金都在买大饼。其实两边一起跌，山寨跌得更狠，占比照样能被推上去。 山寨最磨人的地方就在这：跌的时候特别积极，反弹的时候突然开始讲长期主义。 如果一个币跌得比大饼猛，反弹又比大饼弱，那“它已经跌很多了”到底是机会，还是舍不得认账，得先看它对大饼的汇率。同样一段时间，拿着它换到的大饼越来越少，就说明波动扛了，资产强度没跟上。 真要等轮动，至少得看到它持续跑赢大饼，反弹有量，回落有人接。单日一根针说明不了什么。 山寨当然还有机会，但不是每个币都有。“它还没涨”和“它值得涨”，中间差得挺远。 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% ZEC (Zcash) Downtrend Analysis
1. Market Rotation and Sector Rotation (Fundamental Factors)
ZEC belongs to the privacy narrative coins, which experienced a large surge earlier driven by privacy coin hype. When market hotspots shift to AI, Layer2, and new public chains, incremental funds withdraw from old narrative sectors.
When BTC and ETH experience volatility and pullbacks, high-elasticity coins like ZEC fall significantly more than mainstream coins; macroscopically, repeated interest rate cut expectations reduce risk appetite, and funds prioritize taking profits from heavily appreciated narrative coins.
2. Concentrated Profit Taking (Core Spot Selling Pressure)
ZEC had a huge short-term gain earlier, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking chips. After the price surged, early whales, institutions, and treasury positions took profits in batches, transferring a large number of tokens from cold wallets to exchanges, creating spot selling pressure.
This round of rally was largely narrative-driven, not sustained by continuous new inflows, and after the positive news was realized, buying quickly dried up.
3. Contract Leverage Liquidations Accelerate the Decline
A large number of long positions accumulated during the uptrend; after breaking key technical support levels, a chain reaction of long liquidations was triggered, and forced selling further pushed prices down, creating a negative feedback loop.
ZEC’s depth and liquidity are weaker than BTC/ETH, so even relatively small sell orders can cause large pullbacks. During the decline, funding rates turned negative, the contract market was dominated by shorts, intensifying market pressure.
#ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 BTC and ETH just staged a sudden rebound, triggering the stop-losses on my heavily sized short positions. I ended up losing dozens of dollars, which is definitely frustrating. But one thing remains unchanged: I’m still cautious about the market and leaning bearish for now. If you’re also trading, there’s no need to rush into a position. Waiting for the upcoming CPI report before making a decision may be the smarter move. Why am I still bearish? First, the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to put pr#俄美推进柴油供应合作，俄乌能源停火仍存分歧
The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire increasingly looks like a one-sided monologue.
On October 11, Trump announced that both sides had reached an energy ceasefire, but Ukraine said Russia was still attacking its energy facilities. On October 12, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak confirmed that Russian and American energy departments and companies are negotiating diesel supply, and Russia has partially lifted diesel export restrictions. According to media reports, the U.S. also warned Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, or it might affect weapons and intelligence support to Ukraine.
The logic of the whole matter is clear. The U.S. wants diesel supply, Russia wants export channels, and both sides get what they need. As for Ukraine, in this energy ceasefire matter, it seems more like a bargaining chip on the table. So after a few days of ceasefire calls, the agreement hasn't been implemented, and attacks continue.
For the market, the focus is very practical. Diesel supply arrangements are still progressing, but the energy ceasefire hasn't materialized. Oil prices are slightly weak in the short term; Brent fell 1.03% today. But a bigger variable is that the U.S. needs Russian diesel to fill the gap, indicating that global refined oil supply is already so tight that there is no room to choose suppliers.
For BTC, this is a marginal short-term positive. Oil price decline can ease inflation expectations, reducing the urgency of Federal Reserve rate hikes a bit. But don't celebrate too early; as long as the energy ceasefire doesn't become a written agreement, and Middle East shipping risks remain unresolved, oil prices could bounce back at any time. $CL $BZ $USO Brian Foster worked at Coinbase for seven years, managed the BlackRock partnership, and now has moved to Morpho for marketing.
I just chased an RWA concept last week, saw the news was strong and jumped in, but ended up losing half in two days.
The lesson is: no matter how impressive the executive's resume is, it has zero short-term relation to the coin price.
Morpho's move, frankly, is trying to sell on-chain credit to traditional institutions, which is the right direction.
But short-term traders, don't get excited; personnel appointments are not catalysts, whether funds follow is what matters.
My prediction: this news will at most sustain sentiment for one day, after that we have to see if there is real change in on-chain deposit data.
If no change, just pretend it never happened.
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？
#$BTC ETC at $8.15, are you still waiting for it to rebound?
From 10.35 down to 7.78, the halving has landed, the upgrade is still far off, and tomorrow's CPI hangs overhead—Is this wave the final shakeout, or the slow death of an old chain?
Let's look at the surface first: it dropped, but halving happened, Olympia expectations remain.
Down 9% in the past week, up 6% in the past month, rebounded from 7.2 in mid-September to 10.35 then retraced back to 8.15. Market cap 1.3 billion, mid-tier altcoin, not a mainline.
The candlesticks tell you: price stuck in the 8.00-8.36 decision zone, daily RSI 42, 4-hour RSI 38, MACD below zero line, broke below 7-day and 30-day moving averages, selling pressure volume increased—all indicators shout one thing: short-term bearish, don’t rush to bottom-fish.
But take another look at the weekly chart.
At the end of September, the "Fifthening" halving was just completed, block rewards dropped another 20% to 1.6384 ETC.
Cap at 210.7 million, circulating 155-159 million.
Supply is contracting, the story is brewing. This is the most divisive point.
First: halving has landed, but the market didn’t even blink.
Entered a new halving cycle at the end of September, block rewards down 20% again.
Sounds like great news, right?
But look at the market—price fell from 10.35 all the way down to 7.78, halving didn’t lift the price.
Why?
Because halving is an expectation, already priced in.
The market buys "halving will happen in the future," not "halving has already happened."
Good news landing turns bad news, this is the classic crypto script, haven’t you memorized it yet?
Second: Olympia upgrade is the only decent catalyst this year.
Olympia aims for late 2026: EIP-1559-like dynamic fees, about 80% of base fees go to on-chain treasury, DAO manages spending.
In plain terms:
ETC wants to transform from "old PoW with no code changes" to "PoW Ethereum with sustainable development funding."
Sounds exciting, right?
But before landing, it’s just expectation, not a current price driver.
Third: technicals are on resistance, not support—CPI tomorrow is a looming threat.
Current 8.15 is right on the first resistance.
Resistance at 8.30-8.36, must reclaim to confirm a bottom.
Support at 8.00 (psychological level) → 7.78-7.94 (Oct 8 low) → 7.50 → 7.06.
Daily chart looks more like a pullback in a downtrend channel, no higher lows yet.
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term has room for a bounce, but bounce ≠ reversal.
What about macro?
BTC once dropped below 82,000, spot BTC ETF saw net outflow of 680 million last week, ETH ETF outflows for multiple days, Korean stocks plunged on AI/chip concerns.
Tomorrow (Oct 14) US CPI is the watershed.
If hot, altcoins get hit first; if cool, there’s a repair window.
ETC, a low liquidity asset, falls faster than BTC when macro tightens, and its rebounds are more fake.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bullish side:
Halving landed, supply contracting
Olympia upgrade expectations, catalyst in 2026
September’s fake Core-Geth event passed, miners switched back to safe versions
Perpetual funding rates slightly negative, open interest falls with price, longs reducing positions, not shorts aggressively opening
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term bounce possible
On the bearish side:
Daily bearish alignment, EMA resistance, MACD below zero
Halving good news landed but no price pump, market not buying it
Olympia too far away, landing in 2026
No ETF money story, volume driven by contracts and sentiment rotation
Tomorrow’s CPI, macro risk assets under pressure
Breaking 8.00 easily triggers another round of long liquidation
Trading strategy
Short-term long (only on rebounds):
Aggressive: if 8.00-8.05 holds and 1-hour closes above 8.20, light position, targets 8.36/8.55, stop loss 7.92.
Conservative: wait for daily close above 8.36, enter on pullback without break, targets 8.66, 9.00, stop loss below 8.10.
Oversold rebound: if it drops to 7.78-7.90 with lower shadow and volume contraction, can do one trade, stop loss 7.65, target first 8.15-8.30. This is bottom-fishing, not a trend trade.
Short-term short:
If 8.30-8.55 rally fails and falls back below 8.15, or volume breaks below 8.00, short with target 7.80, extended 7.50.
Stop loss placed 0.15-0.20 above entry candle high, don’t hold past 8.66.
Mid-term:
Only two cases worth holding:
Olympia testnet/mainnet schedule confirmed, and price retakes 9.20;
Post-CPI risk appetite returns, ETC follows ETH recovery.
Before that, it’s a 7.80-9.20 range ticket.
Don’t hold with “value coin” mindset before breaking 10.35.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 7.70 breaks lower range, look at 7.50/7.06, all long logic invalid.
Daily close above 8.66 invalidates bearish logic, look to 9.00.
ETC now is like the 2016 fork—
Everyone shouts "Code is Law," but ten years later, it’s still telling the same story.
Halving landed, upgrade in 2026, no ETF, developers left.
You think you’re bottom-fishing ETC, but you’re actually renewing faith from 2016.
Old chains don’t die, they just slowly wither. But your margin won’t wait for its rebound day.
The day it breaks 8.36—
It’s either the start of a rebound or another fakeout.
$BTC $ETH $ETC This Yi Lihua, do any of you brothers follow him?
Do you think the BTC resistance and support levels he describes in the article are reliable?
Let me comment one by one:
First question: The 400-day moving average of BTC is at 81,000, so it can get support and rebound here.
Comment: What the heck is a 400-day moving average? Twice the 200-day? It's the first time I've heard of a 400-day moving average. Did he have to make up a BTC 400-day moving average just to show off his sharp insight?
Second question: The strong resistance level of BTC is at 86,500, so every time it reaches here, it pulls back.
Comment: Does it pull back because there is resistance at 86,500? Isn't it due to recent macro issues like the crazy rise in oil prices, the repeated ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine over oil and gas, and the unstable situation between Yemen and Saudi Arabia? It's just that there was no special positive catalyst to push a one-time rebound above 90,000. It just so happens that BTC encountered resistance at 86,500.
When all these coincidences come together, they are described as a mechanical executable operation method. This kind of thinking is extremely naive.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
Looking at this data, don’t rush to shout "institutions have fled" yet.
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, indicating that allocation in regulated channels is cooling down, especially ETH which has seen eight consecutive days of withdrawals, looking more like a "real reduction" than BTC.
But I prefer to call it: macro risk aversion + profit-taking, not a collective long-term institutional exit.
When US Treasury yields, the dollar, and geopolitical risks rise, big money in ETFs first cuts beta; it’s normal for BTC and ETH to be trimmed together.
The difference is: BTC outflows are in pulses, ETH outflows are trending. So the phrase "institutional demand weakening" fits ETH more, while for BTC it’s more of a short-term retreat.
Next, watch the next three days: whether outflows spread to the entire IBIT/FBTC/ARKB camp or remain concentrated in certain products; whether BTC can hold above 84k;
and whether funds return after CPI and Federal Reserve statements. If outflows continue, that’s a demand inflection point; if they stop falling and rebound, it’s just October deleveraging.
$SNDK
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 There are too many short positions on $BAT. Every time the whales pump it up, it slowly slides down. Pumping a few points at a time can't trigger the short positions, and instead, the shorts keep adding to their positions. How long can this coin keep going just relying on the whales to pump it?Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story?
On October 29, Uniswap Labs handed over its own child Unichain to Optimism. This self-owned L2, which was only set to launch in 2025, survived just over a year before being hastily transferred. The announcement was understated, but the strategic contraction is unmistakableUniswap is refocusing on its core business.
For UNI holders, this is not good news.
The daily trading volume of the Uniswap main protocol has always been strong,#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening? The leader has something to say
BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows last week, totaling $1.221 billion. BTC had a net outflow of $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. ETH had a net outflow of $542 million, marking the largest single-week outflow since January and nine consecutive trading days of outflows.
Is institutional demand weakening? My judgment is that this is a phase of portfolio adjustment, not a trend of withdrawal. Before the CPI release, funds are hedging, which is expected. Plus, with the 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.7% and short-term debt yields high enough, some funds are temporarily moving into fixed income, which is normal.
But ETH is weaker than BTC. BitMine already holds 6.03 million ETH, close to 5% of the total supply, and management says they have basically bought enough. The largest ETH treasury buyer has stopped, so ETH has lost key support. That's why ETH is falling harder than BTC and its rebound is weaker than BTC's.
Today the market is recovering, BTC is up 2.09%, ETH up 2.94%. ETF fund flows and short-term prices are diverging; some are selling, some are buying. The market is waiting for the CPI to set the direction.
I still hold my BTC long at 82,800, stop loss at 81,500, target at 86,000. ETF outflows are a slow variable and do not affect the short-term rebound rhythm. I will reduce positions at the target and not cling to the fight. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I won't touch ETH for now, waiting for ETF funds to flow back. No chasing highs or panic selling, just set stop losses properly. The most noteworthy data today is that BTC's total network contract open interest sharply dropped by 6.05% within 24 hours, falling to $54.091 billion. Meanwhile, the price rebounded above 83,000, making the signal of a reduction-driven rebound worth a closer look.
1. What changed? This morning, BTC briefly fell below 81,000, with over $770 million in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, of which 88.9% were long positions. The price then made a V-shaped recovery, but the open interest did not rise correspondingly.
2. Why is this significant? This rebound accompanied by a decline in open interest indicates that the rally was not driven by new long entries but rather by short covering and forced liquidations. BTC funding rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are now paying to hold positions.
3. Which interpretation is currently more supported? It leans more towards a "technical correction after leverage clearing" rather than a trend reversal. Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, showing institutions are still systematically reducing positions.
Next, watch the previous high at 83,800: a volume-backed hold above this level would validate the rebound; if pressure returns, the nature of this reduction-driven rebound will be confirmed. The direction may be revealed earlier than most expect. $BTC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC Dot plot says 4.1%, the speaker says more hikes are needed.
▪️ Median of September dot plot 3.8% → 4.1%, unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 25bp
▪️ SEP pushes return to 2% to 2029, core PCE revised up to 3.4%
▪️ CPI announced on 10/14 at 20:30, August reading CPI 3.4%, core month-on-month 0.3%
▪️ CME shows 78.4% probability of no rate hike at 10/27–28 meeting
▪️ Concurrently 10Y at 5.36%, 30Y at 5.73%, highest since 2002
The disagreement is not about how tough the speaker is, but that the "median of the dot plot" and the "tone of the speaker" are not the same thing.
The dot plot is the composite result of 19 voters, reflecting the committee's view on year-end rates; the speech is an individual statement, which can be interpreted as tougher. What is truly priced in is the former—CME's 78.4% no hike indicates the market treats the rate meeting as an uncertain variable. CPI is the only number not yet factored into this pricing.
Direction is to wait and see — if CPI is below expectations, bets on rate hikes will fade; if above expectations, the long end will move up another notch. Costs dropped by 82%, but I’m actually panicking
Researchers have reduced the estimated computational cost of dedicated quantum-secure Bitcoin transactions by 82%, down to $59.
The potential risk exposure is huge.
According to a Glassnode study, about 6.04 million bitcoins (30.2% of the then-issued Bitcoin supply) have public keys visible on-chain.
In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum attacker could derive private keys from exposed public keys and take control of the associated cryptocurrency.
My thought is: what used to seem impossible is now being seriously pursued.
What’s more troublesome is something else.
Every time you move your coins, it’s like hanging your house keys online.
About one-third of all bitcoins worldwide are already in this state.
And the new solution only protects those that haven’t been exposed yet.
So the dividing line isn’t about cost, it’s about whether you acted early.
The good news is, changing to a new address can be done today, almost for free.
The bad news is, the attack has no deadline, but the risk is always present.
Don’t mistake the absence of incidents for safety; quantum security doesn’t mean it’s impenetrable.
It means it hasn’t been broken yet.
Those who act early can sleep well.
$59, one step closer than what I wrote before.BTC staged a classic "short squeeze counterattack" in the past hour. It briefly dropped below $81,000 in the morning, causing nearly 170,000 liquidations, but then the price strongly rebounded to around $83,800.
The core driver of this rebound was short covering, not new capital inflows. In the past 4 hours of liquidations, short positions accounted for over 90%. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $681 million in a single week, with institutions reducing positions during the rebound.
In the short term, watch the resistance at the previous high of $83,800; if it fails to break out with volume, it will likely retest support at $83,000. The real decisive factor will be tomorrow night's CPI data—if inflation exceeds expectations, this rebound may be just a flash in the pan. $BTC $BTC BTC short-term 1-hour and 4-hour short positions have more liquidations, indicating this rapid rebound primarily swept out the shorts. Looking at the 24-hour timeframe, long position liquidations reached 110 million, significantly higher than the 53.119 million in short liquidations.
In simple terms: short-term rally harvested shorts, but over the full-day larger cycle, longs are still being heavily liquidated. The market oscillates back and forth, shaking out positions, with longs and shorts being liquidated in turn. This kind of market easily triggers stop losses on both sides, so positions must be kept light. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% 【Under negative ETH funding rate, who is placing the 2523 buy order to support the bottom?】
Just after the US stock market opened, an abnormal signal appeared in the ETH order book.
What has changed with ETH? The funding rate is negative (-0.00064%), shorts are paying to hold positions, but buy orders account for 58% of the order book, with a large 250 ETH order placed at 2523.83.
Why is this worth attention? Over the past 10 days, ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, indicating institutional withdrawal; however, the futures order book shows someone absorbing at the lower level. These two forces are moving in opposite directions.
Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards "passive defense under crowded shorts" rather than active bullishness. Negative funding rate means short positions are concentrated, and if the price does not fall, there is a possibility of a short squeeze.
Next, watch two signals: whether 2520 (MA20) can hold, and whether ETF outflows converge. If it doesn't hold, the support order may just be a buffer; if it holds, the story is just beginning. $ETH Write an analysis post about the field I am most skilled in.
I have spent 1000 days and nights studying various macro data and geopolitics of different countries.
First, regarding the screenshot, tomorrow is the release day of the 5-star data CPI, which will be published at 8:30 PM.
The most noteworthy points are the annual rate and the Fed's favorite core CPI monthly rate month-over-month.
Currently, the expected data for the annual rate is not optimistic, while the core monthly rate month-over-month is still acceptable; last month was 0.3%, and now the expectation is 0.2%.
If one is good and the other is bad, they can offset each other. If both are bad, then we need to focus on analyzing the current positions and status of BTC and ETH in the market.
First: If both data points are good,
BTC and ETH will strongly break through their respective resistance levels at 83850 and 2566, these two key positions.
Second: If one is good and the other is bad, regardless of whether the annual rate or the monthly rate is good, overall, as long as ETH is around 2535 at the time of release with one good and one bad data point, it will most likely move sideways downward. Subsequently, it will continue to oscillate within a range.
Third: If both data points are bad,
If at the time of release BTC is above 83000, a sharp drop is inevitable. Altcoins will suffer even more.
If BTC and ETH tonight, for unknown reasons, fall below 81000 and 2430 respectively, then with bad data, the rise or fall tomorrow is uncertain.
Only by breaking below their respective lows to find a bottom, or by the negative news being fully priced in, will there be an open-ended positive outcome.Bottom at 80,000 or chase the rise at 86,000?
CPI will give the answer tonight
CPI data is the "trigger" for the crypto market's directional choice tonight. If the core month-on-month is 0.2%, BTC is expected to hold above $83,000 and challenge 86,000; if it is 0.3% or higher, there is a high probability of a pullback to 80,000 or even lower.
The current market has already "voted with its feet" in advance. The capital flow sends a clear warning: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $681 million last week, ending three consecutive weeks of inflows; Ethereum ETFs also had a net outflow of $542 million, with institutions proactively reducing risk amid macro uncertainty.
The key contradiction lies in the misalignment between market pricing and Federal Reserve expectations. Prediction markets show a 67% probability that BTC will fall below $80,000 within October, meaning the current crypto prices have not fully priced in the scenario of "core CPI exceeding expectations."
Operational advice: reduce leverage and stay on the sidelines before the data release. If the core month-on-month is 0.2%, lightly follow BTC's short-term rebound with a target of 85,000-86,000; if core is 0.3%+, wait for BTC to pull back to the dense on-chain support zone at 77,000-78,000 before considering phased buying, rather than blindly bottom-fishing around 81,000. Ethereum requires additional attention to ETF capital flows and transfer movements of wallets related to the foundation.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Originally was about to sleep, but glanced at the K-line, BTC 15-minute RSI surged to 96.8, too hot for the short term, ETH and SOL also bounced along, but whether they can hold above the resistance level is the real focus.
$BTC rebounded from 80351 to 83665, 15-minute RSI surged to 96.8, clearly overbought, but contract open interest hasn't expanded much, indicating this rally is more like short covering and bottom-fishing driving it; spot market hasn't kept up at all. The 84000 above is a resistance level; if it can't hold, it's a fake rebound, chasing highs is very risky.
$ETH rose from 2405 to 2520, but the 4-hour MACD is still below the zero line. The lower edge of the 2550 to 2578 box has many trapped positions; it's not easy to break through directly. RSI is also overbought. Chasing longs at this position has poor cost-effectiveness.
$SOL rebounded from 101.58 to 108.08, 15-minute RSI surged to 74.9, 4-hour resistance is near 110. Like BTC and ETH, no new money is entering; this rebound lacks sustainability.
I believe tonight's V-shaped rebound is not a reversal, but more like an escape opportunity for those trapped during the day.
Follow-up operation plan: Only consider light long positions if BTC holds above 84000, ETH above 2550, and SOL above 110; otherwise, wait for a pullback. BTC looks at 82000, ETH at 2450, SOL at 103-105, and act after volume contracts and stabilizes.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Countdown 24 hours: 820 million evaporated overnight
At midnight, $BTC plunged to 80,927, $ETH touched 2,405, with 814 million contracts evaporated in 24 hours, 84.6% of which were long positions—no black swan, just leverage paying debts.
The rebound gap is very honest: BTC is only 0.3% away from the opening price, ETH hasn't touched back 2,560, $SOL is 3% short of 112. This is not a return of risk appetite, but funds hiding in BTC as a shelter. Market dominance is 59.3%, BTC is sucking liquidity.
Macro is not easing: Hamak says inflation has spread to AI infrastructure and electricity, with nearly 70% chance of rate hike in December, 10-year US Treasury at 5.24%.
October 14, 20:30 CPI, the decisive factor is core month-on-month—≤0.2% is a breather, 0.3% reignites debate, ≥0.4% triggers rate hike repricing. Risk is asymmetric; overheating is much more troublesome than cooling.
Watch three numbers: BTC 84,360, ETH 2,580, SOL 113. Only when all three move together is it diffusion; BTC alone moving is risk aversion.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $W If it weren't for having been wrecked by this kind of candlestick pattern some time ago, I might have stubbornly held on longer. Recently, I bought in at 0.016 and sold at 0.027. It did rally, but it was too rushed, so the profit-taking sell-off happened. It crashed like this, so there's no way it will rally again. The heavier the crash, the worse it gets. Those trapped are frantically averaging down, but they haven't considered that the project's team has already achieved their goal. Finally, there will be one more wave of dumping, crashing back to 0.007-0.009 to wrap things up, then it will shake out and control the price at the bottom again.Lost $11.27 million in seven days, this crash really put Big Bro Maji on the hit list again.
First, two rounds of cutting positions and taking losses, actually losing $1.01 million + $12,000, left with only a 25x long position of 7,150 ETH, with the price just $26 above the liquidation line;
Then just after a slight rebound at dawn, he turned around and added positions again, latest holding 9,825 ETH, with an unrealized loss of $845,000, and cumulative funding fees burned $1.34 million.
On October 5th, the account still had an unrealized profit of $5.46 million, but in just seven days it dropped to only $562,000, a net value drawdown of nearly 90%. This is no longer a roller coaster, it's free fall.
Many people use him as a contrarian indicator to mock, but I think this is the harshest truth of high-leverage trading: unrealized profits are always just paper numbers, but liquidation is a real evaporation of principal.
He was right to bet on ETH long-term going up, but 25x leverage simply can't withstand any volatility. Even if the big direction is right, there's a high chance of dying halfway. Sideways movement is like a dull knife cutting flesh, funding fees are deducted daily, and if the trend doesn't come, the position is gone first.
Leverage is something where winning a hundred times is not enough to cover losing once. Do you think he can hold on this time, or is it another liquidation to zero?
$BTC $ETH 100x leverage earned 175%, netting 0.08U
$ETH rose from 2487 to above 2530, increasing by less than two points.
Someone used 6.91U principal, going 100x full long.
What does this number mean:
100x means if the price moves 1% against you, the principal is gone.
1% of 6.91U is 0.07U.
So this position survived because the direction was just right.
What he actually did:
Entry price 2487, unrealized profit 175%, which translates to only 0.08U earned.
Shorted another coin 3x, unrealized profit 65%, netting 0.1U.
Together, both trades made less than 0.2U.
Leverage amplifies the percentage, not the money.
When the principal is very small, doubling is just a few cents.
What really gets amplified is the liquidation risk.
Wait until a position that can lose the entire principal appears, then talk about profits.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $ETH After the sharp drop of $UNI hit a low and then stabilized and rebounded, basically it's a natural recovery after overselling; once it has fallen thoroughly, there is naturally room for a rebound.
The long position entered at 7.298 is now at 7.583, with an unrealized profit of 195.25%, profiting from the bottom price difference created by panic selling.
Don't call it a reversal just because of two bullish candles; a rebound is not a bull market. There is heavy resistance at previous highs above, and chasing highs can easily get trapped at a temporary peak.
Those holding long positions should continue to move up their take-profit lines, first securing the principal in a safe zone, and let the remaining profits run.
If you haven't entered the market, don't chase to buy; wait for a pullback to support and stabilization before acting. High-leverage trading should never chase highs or sell lows. $BTC Regarding $ETH ETH here, in the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, there are more short liquidations, with short-term rebounds first clearing out the shorts. But extending to 12h and 24h, the long liquidations significantly outnumber the shorts; in 24 hours, longs liquidated reached 130 million, while shorts only 39.378 million.
Simply put: short-term price surges harvest shorts, but over the full day in larger timeframes, longs are heavily liquidated. The market oscillates back and forth, with longs and shorts being washed out alternately. This kind of market easily triggers stop losses on both sides, so trading must be done cautiously.
⚠️ Risk warning: Liquidation data only reflects already occurred clearings and cannot be used to predict future market movements.LayerZero spent 10 million of its own money to buy coins, yet ZRO still dropped 14%, with the unlocking acting like a blade pressing down on everyone.
Market overview first: OKEx spot current price is 2.0272, down 2.1% in 24h, after reaching a high of 2.3673 it fell back to 2.03, a 14% pullback from the peak; trading volume is 5.9 million USDT, market cap 950 million, volume shrinking with a slow decline.
Interesting event timeline: Yesterday LayerZero Labs bought 10 million USD worth of ZRO on the open market, price surged to 2.48 that day, making people think the project team was stepping in to push it up, but today it was knocked back to reality — even insiders buying coins couldn’t stop the correction.
The reason is clear: On October 20, 23.63 million ZRO tokens worth about 53.73 million USD will unlock, split evenly between core contributors and the ecosystem. As the countdown enters the window, short-term funds dare not take the lead; technical indicators also align: RSI at 40.5, MACD bearish crossover below zero line, price pressed below the super trend and all short- and mid-term moving averages, no one dares to go long actively.
But don’t lose sight of the long-term logic: Since April, Stargate’s revenue has been 100% used to buy back ZRO, having purchased 2.538 million tokens. The project team investing real money to vote is a long-term signal, it’s just that the unlocking window causes short-term pressure.
Watch the support at 1.9984, if broken look down to 1.97; resistance is at 2.1384. The battle before the unlocking lands is about who has patience. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZRO #LayerZero #CrossChainToday, the South Korean KOSPI plunged sharply, once falling below the 6000 mark, dropping more than 6% and triggering a circuit breaker. Weighted stocks were clearly under pressure, with Samsung Electronics falling over 5% and SK Hynix plummeting more than 7%.
This round of sell-off was driven by multiple factors resonating together: foreign capital continued to flee heavily, with net sales exceeding 1 trillion KRW in the morning session, and the outflow trend has persisted for several days; combined with the breakthrough in DDR5 new technology by ChangXin Memory, the market worries about the impact on Samsung and Hynix's storage pricing advantage. Additionally, the weakness in the US stock AI sector and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials tightened liquidity expectations, further dragging down global tech risk assets.
The index dropped to around 5900, close to previous key support. Many local Korean brokerage firms believe that after the sharp decline, Samsung and Hynix valuations are oversold in the short term and require technical repair.
However, it should be noted that foreign capital selling pressure has not yet confirmed an end, and whether following the trend to short or directly bottom-fishing, the risks are relatively high.
Short-term judgment: A rebound repair is highly likely, but it is defined as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $SNDK previously stated that the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. ChangXin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "China's chip rise," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."$BTC $ETH $SOL
Multiple pre-market news in the US stock market collectively signal that institutions are beginning to reduce equity risk and shift towards bond hedging, which will directly impact the crypto market.
In the crypto space, the correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has already rebounded. The risk appetite in the US stock market will directly affect the crypto market. Institutions reducing US stock holdings and increasing US bond allocations means risk capital is contracting, which will continue to suppress BTC and ETH. Yesterday, spot ETFs continued to see outflows, resonating with the risk-off sentiment in the US stock market.
If the US stock market opens weaker, the crypto market will simultaneously come under pressure; if the US stock market stabilizes and oscillates, the crypto space will maintain range-bound trading. Currently, with overall capital seeking safety, altcoins are facing greater volatility pressure.
BlackRock's moves are the most representative: it downgraded US stocks to neutral while increasing US bond allocations, ending a six-year underweight stance on US bonds. This reflects the current judgment of leading institutions that the cost-effectiveness of the stock market is declining, capital is prioritizing bond hedging, and willingness to allocate to risk assets is shrinking.
Bank earnings reports show divergence: JPMorgan's revenue missed expectations, with FICC business income below estimates; Goldman Sachs' equity trading business exceeded expectations, but fixed income business was weak; Citigroup slightly met targets. Big banks' earnings falling short of expectations will heighten market concerns about the economy.
Regarding memory chips, Morgan Stanley warns that the semiconductor cycle is nearing its peak, with high profitability posing a valuation trap, and expectations for tech stocks are beginning to ease.#渣打银行为Ripple旗下RLUSD提供托管服务
$XRP Banks custodize stablecoins, collateral doesn't need to move.
▪️ Standard Chartered provides institutional custody for RLUSD through its Dubai International Financial Centre branch, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority
▪️ Supports RLUSD running on its native XRP Ledger
▪️ Plans to extend the "collateral mirroring" model to LMAX, allowing clients to use RLUSD as trading collateral
▪️ In the mirroring model, tokens remain in bank custody, and LMAX can confirm position value without client transfers
▪️ Standard Chartered says this model can reduce transfer risk and counterparty exposure; functionality still requires documentation, testing, and regulatory approval
The disagreement isn't whether banks are willing to custody stablecoins, but which step is saved by the "collateral doesn't leave custody" design.
Previously, to use stablecoins as collateral, the coins had to be transferred to the counterparty, and the transfer process itself was an exposure. The mirroring model lets the bank issue confirmation, and the counterparty recognizes the value, so the coins don't move, reducing risk exposure. Whether this process can be implemented depends on whether banks are willing to take responsibility for a "confirmation"—Standard Chartered has listed it as a pending approval item, indicating it is also waiting for conditions to be met.
The direction is for observers — collateral functionality approval and implementation marks a new stage; stopping at custody just adds another custodian.#Strategy's accumulation slows down, is the corporate treasury strategy changing?
Strategy's approach has shifted a bit; it used to buy coins blindly, but now it's starting to be more cautious.
Let's look at the data. From October 5th to 11th, during that week, Strategy only bought 250 BTC, spending less than 20 million USD. But in the same period, it spent 192 million USD to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares. Do the math: the buyback amount is 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. The man who used to "raise funds just to buy coins" is now using most of the money to fix the capital structure.
Looking at the bigger picture, SoSoValue statistics show that the net weekly BTC purchases by listed companies dropped by 90.6% week-over-week. This is not just Strategy's issue; the entire corporate treasury buying pace is collectively slowing down. On the other hand, BitMine still holds 6.03 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, with 84% of that staked, gradually locking up.
What impact does this have?
First, short-term buying pressure is definitely reduced.
Second, just because treasury players are not buying doesn't mean they are selling.
My view is simple.
Don't panic just because accumulation is slowing. Strategy is now spending 9 times more on repurchasing preferred shares, which is building a firewall for itself—stabilizing the capital structure first, then planning for future coin purchases. This is not a signal that the market will fall; treasury players are switching from "charging aggressively" to "holding steady."
What do you think? $BTC $SOL is bearish, with long positions liquidated for $25.11 million in the past 24 hours, while short positions only liquidated $8.48 million. The number of long trades is about half that of shorts, but the amount is much larger, indicating that large long positions were liquidated, whereas shorts are mostly small trades. The funding rate has dropped for three consecutive periods to 0.0013%. The sign of the funding rate doesn't indicate direction, but it has been narrowing, showing fewer people are paying to go long. Leveraged longs are being squeezed out, and no new money is coming in to take their place. The chart's highs are still rising, so the uptrend structure hasn't broken. However, these highs were pushed up by leveraged longs, who have just been cleared once; the 109.82 level was tested but not held. Moving averages show a bearish alignment and price has broken below moving average support, matching the liquidation direction, so I trust this side more. $920 million in open interest is still on the books, longs haven't fully cleared, and the next test will be at 101.56. Conditions to turn bullish: price must hold above 109.82 with open interest increasing simultaneously. If both occur, this bearish judgment is invalid.Interactive Brokers has also launched ETH staking, using ZeroHash technology. But the announcement doesn't provide a single yield figure, nor does it mention the lock-up period or whether you can withdraw at any time.
On-chain interest is originally something you can get in full just by opening a wallet. When integrated into a brokerage account, there's an extra layer of channel and an extra layer of fees; what they're really selling is convenience and compliance.
$BTC
$ETH $ADA Market Overview ADA has long been in a fluctuating downward channel, with multiple rebounds being weak recoveries. The rebound heights are getting lower and lower, making it difficult to sustain a continuous trend. When the overall market warms up, ADA's gains lag behind public chain competitors like Ethereum and SOL; once the market pulls back, ADA often falls among the top in losses, making it a typical weak asset that follows declines but not rises. Recently, rumors have circulated that some trading platforms plan to delist ADA spot trading pairs, further suppressing market confidence and causing on-exchange funds to exit for safety. Core Reasons for the Decline 1. Continuous ecosystem contraction, lacking real incremental growth Cardano initially focused on being an academic public chain with peer-reviewed scientific narratives, but the implementation progress has been slow for a long time. On-chain TVL has shrunk significantly, DeFi activity is sluggish; once leading NFT marketplaces and on-chain data tools have successively shut down, daily active addresses and on-chain transactions continue to decline. The ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications, user loss is obvious, and there is no sustained capital or new user inflow to support the token price. The grand narrative has gradually been disproven by the market. 2. Competition in the sector squeezes space, narrative no longer scarce The smart contract public chain sector is highly competitive. SOL, ETH, and Avalanche continuously capture funds, while new public chains and modular chains keep diverting attention. ADA's "academic public chain" story is no longer fresh. Others are rapidly iterating their ecosystems, while ADA's update pace is slow. Market funds prefer chains with real users and high transaction activity, leading to continuous outflow from ADA. 3,$BTC The evening outlook given by Ayue has been partially realized with a slight gain, successfully moving up by over 800 points, and Ethereum also gained nearly 40 points! Friends who kept up with the pace, please pay attention and check, and be careful to reduce positions in batches. $ETH May it continue to follow the trend steadily, advancing step by step, creating new achievements, and living up to every trust and persistence.
$ZEC
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
Don't rush to go all in before the CPI release; crude oil and U.S. Treasuries have already given their answers
The September CPI is coming tomorrow night, and the market expects the numbers to look bad this time. Core CPI month-over-month is expected to be between 0.2% and 0.24%, but the overall CPI year-over-year might jump directly from 3.4% to 3.6%-3.7%.
In simple terms, oil prices have pushed the overall number up, but core inflation is actually cooling down. The national average gasoline price in the U.S. is $4.33, nearly $1 more expensive than the same period last year. However, core components like rent, used cars, and insurance are stable, and the one-time factor of Verizon's price hike has also passed.
Crude oil is even more straightforward. Brent is fluctuating around 104-106, WTI around 91-93. Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are still being attacked, diesel supply is very tight, and U.S. diesel is $0.70 more expensive than before the conflict. But Trump has said he won't attack Iran before the midterm elections, and Russian diesel exports are starting to loosen up, so oil prices have both ceilings and floors.
U.S. Treasuries are even more interesting. The 10-year yield just surged to a 20-plus-year high of 5.36%, but on Tuesday it reversed and fell back to around 5.19%. The reason is simple: as Asian stock markets fell, safe-haven funds flowed back into U.S. Treasuries. But this doesn't mean the inflation problem is solved; it's purely a risk-hedging demand triggered by the stock market drop.
My view: short-term is more likely to be volatile, no rush to expect a one-way move. If core CPI meets expectations, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to fall in the short term, providing a breather for growth stocks The underlying stock plummeted, but the contract surged — I feel uneasy about the money I made
Tonight's most surreal scene: the US stock storage sector collapsed. Changxin Storage's IPO soared 466% on the first day, scaring global storage stocks — SK Hynix dropped 10%, Micron fell 5%, and SanDisk's underlying stock opened down nearly 5% again.
But OKX's SNDK contract jumped from 1,403 straight up to 1,465, soaring against the underlying stock, now even more expensive than the stock itself. I entered at 1,437, with an unrealized profit of +5.5U.
This surge isn't due to bulls being strong, but because shorts are too crowded: panic selling during the day pushed the contract cheaper than the underlying stock, and when the US market opened with bad news, shorts rushed to cover, pushing the contract price beyond the peak.
So my choice: pocket the profits first. The underlying stock is falling, Changxin's competition is real, and there's a big earnings test on 10/29 — the money made from this mismatch is temporarily parked by the market, don't take it as a sure thing.
Have you ever traded contracts linked to stock-crypto correlation? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk warning: personal live trading record, not investment advice, leverage risk is extremely high, please do not copy trades. Bookmakers being investigated for advertising—what does this have to do with the crypto space?
Just saw that the FTC is targeting FanDuel and DraftKings, saying their ads might be misleading.
But notice one detail: Kalshi and Polymarket are not on the list.
That’s worth pondering.
Both involve betting, yet traditional gambling is being scrutinized while prediction markets are left alone.
Simply put, regulators currently treat these two as different species.
Gambling is gambling; prediction markets are more like financial instruments.
This is a sentiment boost for platforms like Polymarket, at least they haven’t been targeted in the short term.
But don’t celebrate too soon—the FTC’s review is still early, and it’s uncertain if the scope will expand later.
What I’m more curious about now is whether this wave of scrutiny will turn into free advertising for prediction markets.
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？
#$ZEC In the past decade or so, the mainland's attitude toward Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a main line: from "defining it as a virtual commodity, warning of risks, isolating the financial system," gradually moving to "completely banning domestic virtual currency-related businesses + clearing out mining + continuously cracking down on speculation/money laundering/illegal financial activities." It was not a sudden one-size-fits-all ban but a step-by-step tightening. 1. 2013: Recognized as a "virtual commodity" but denied currency attributes - The People's Bank of China and five other ministries issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks": Bitcoin is not currency but a "specific virtual commodity" and cannot circulate as currency. - Financial institutions and payment institutions are prohibited from conducting Bitcoin exchange, clearing, custody, pricing, insurance, and other businesses. - Ordinary people can buy and sell at their own risk—this is considered "commodity trading," not a legal investment product, nor currency. - Core logic: prevent money laundering, maintain the legal status of the RMB, and keep risks outside the financial system. 2. 2017: Expanded from "Bitcoin" to "virtual currency/ICO," clearing trading platforms - The People's Bank of China and seven other departments issued the "Announcement on Preventing Risks of Token Issuance Financing": ICOs were defined as illegal public financing. - Domestic token issuance financing and virtual currency trading platforms were centrally cleaned up; Huobi/OKEx and others moved their domestic businesses overseas. - Attitude change: no longer just "Bitcoin speculation is risky," but treating token financing, platform matchmaking, and fundraising behaviors as financial chaos to be cracked down on. - At this time, individual coin speculation was not yet considered a crime, but platforms, coin issuance, and fundraising were already prohibited. 3. 2021: Completely tightenedGlassnode: BTC has twice found support at the ETF cost basis, with key support below at $77,500
According to on-chain institutional data from Glassnode, BTC has twice stabilized and rebounded at the ETF cost basis level, which has shifted from previous resistance to support. If this defense line is breached, the next strong support is expected at the true market average of $77,500.
Opinion: The ETF cost line represents the breakeven point for institutional holdings. The fact that support has held twice indicates strong buying pressure in this area. However, support is not an ironclad bottom; macro interest rate hike expectations and ETF capital outflows could break through this range. Holding near $81,500 is necessary for a rebound; breaking below would directly target $77,500.
Contract trading strategy: Play long positions based on support, with stop-loss set below $77,500. If volume-driven break below $77,500 occurs, avoid bottom-fishing and follow the bearish trend. Also, continuously monitor daily ETF capital flows, as sustained outflows will weaken on-chain support effectiveness.
Do you think the ETF cost support will hold this time, or will it test $77,500?The biggest buyer of HYPE is not institutions: $1.26 billion, it is buying itself
Who is the biggest buyer of HYPE? Not institutions, not ETFs, it is itself. Data from October 10: Hyperliquid's cumulative protocol revenue has exceeded $1.4 billion, of which over $1.26 billion has been used to buy back HYPE. This number alone might not mean much, so let's find a reference — the total net asset value of all $HYPE spot ETFs combined is about $452 million.
In other words, the money the platform has spent on buybacks is nearly three times the total holdings of all ETFs combined. To put it simply: whether those institutions outside buy or not is actually not that important; the real main buyer is the platform's own daily revenue. Other projects rely on calling people in to support the market, but this one relies on real money buying in itself.
I used to focus on who was flowing in and out, but now I don't watch that anymore — that's just small money coming and going. Just keep an eye on the buyer who consistently scoops up every week without fail.