#TreasuryYieldsRebound
About TreasuryYieldsRebound
US Treasury yields fell after September's NFP, with the 10Y briefly near 5.15%, before reversing. By late New York trading, the 2Y was around 4.82%, the 10Y 5.28%, and the 30Y 5.63%; several key maturities ended above the prior session. Softer hiring eased pressure for near-term Fed hikes, but energy prices, inflation, and the US fiscal and debt outlook kept medium- and long-term yields elevated.
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BTC holding near $85,097 while Treasury yields climb is a constructive signal, but not a clean risk-on backdrop. The market is rewarding relative resilience, not broad conviction. With BTC inflows and ETH outflows diverging, I would expect leadership to stay narrow until rates soften.
Not advice, just analysis.
#TreasuryYieldsRebound US Treasury yields fell after September's NFP, with the 10Y briefly near 5.15%, before reversing. By late New York trading, the 2Y was around 4.82%, the 10Y 5.28%, and the 30Y 5.63%; several key maturities ended above the prior session. Softer hiring eased pressure for near-term Fed hikes, but energy prices, inflation, and the US fiscal and debt outlook kept medium- and long-term yields elevated.
🚨 What would a 6% Treasury yield mean for stocks?
Fidelity’s chart illustrates the valuation pressure: a 6% 10-year yield could correspond to an equity P/E near 16x, versus roughly 19–20x in the chart.
A move from 20x to 16x means a 20% decline in stock prices if earnings stay unchanged.
Higher yields reduce the present value of future cash flows and give investors a more competitive income alternative to stocks.
But earnings growth can cushion the impact.
For example, a 20% drop in the P/E combined with 30% cumulative earnings growth would leave prices approximately 4% higher:
0.80 × 1.30 = 1.04
That’s an illustration, not a forecast. The relationship between bond yields and stock valuations varies over time.
If yields keep climbing, earnings will have to do more of the work to support stock prices.
via Fidelity
Might be one of the more important paradigm-shifting interviews @coinage_media
It's all about treasury yields — and its a brawl between the bond market and stock market
Either stocks are right, and tech rallies
Or bonds are right, and hard assets rally
Either way, $BTC higher
Coinage ♻️
NEW: Bitcoin's rally was sparked by the Treasury intervening in the bond market — and pressures continue to mount
The macro set up, and renewed action by the Treasury, could push $BTC back above $100K before the end of the year, says @FundstratDirect @SeanMFarrell
