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There are several major data releases tonight
Volatility is expected to be high in the evening
Last night, the US stock market already took a big hit
At 20:30 tonight, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be released together
What is the market most afraid of now?
The economy is weak, but inflation won't come down
PPI higher than expected is bearish for Bitcoin
But I think the biggest fear tonight is conflicting data
One is bullish, one is bearish
The bulls and bears tug back and forth
Bitcoin jumps up and down
In the end, both bulls and bears get hit
Especially now that the US stock market is already weak
It's hard for the crypto market to stay unaffected
$BTC $ETH $SOL Many people see Solana holding a developer conference in Shanghai, and CZ (founder of Binance) even posted in support, so they think this is a signal to pump SOL.
Honestly, this is more of a sentiment boost, not a signal to pump the price. Essentially, it's a domestic tour for ecosystem building, and CZ's support is social within the circle, not a public call to buy. There may be a short-term opening or pulse, with on-chain meme hype heating up, but "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is ironclad. Smart money positions early, and when the good news lands, it becomes a profit-taking window, prone to a sharp rise followed by a fall.
The biggest variable remains the macro environment. US September CPI rose to 3.7%, exceeding expectations; core inflation remains stubborn; US Treasury yields stay high; Fed rate cut expectations continue to cool; risk assets are under pressure. BTC is battling around the 80,000 mark; with the market bearish, SOL alone can't hold up, and the hype is unlikely to sustain a big rally.
From a technical perspective, the aftermath of previous high-leverage liquidations on SOL hasn't settled, and there is dense resistance above. Avoid chasing short-term hype, beware of pullback risk after the good news is realized, keep a light position for defense, and closely watch BTC's market trend. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Many small altcoins with market caps below tens of millions, like LYN with a circulating market cap of only 3 million, are still steadily declining, largely because Binance has tightened leverage on altcoin contracts.
Market makers share one margin to operate multiple coins simultaneously. After the leverage cap was lowered, the margin became insufficient, forcing them to withdraw liquidity. The order book thins out, and even a small sell order can trigger a sharp drop, making it impossible to find buyers to close positions.
The event on October 11 serves as a warning: in extreme market conditions, market makers prioritize protecting BTC and ETH, draining liquidity from small coins, causing their prices to free fall.
Now Binance is preemptively reducing leverage, which seems to prevent a crash, but the risk for small coins with market caps of a few million has increased. If you hold these coins, don’t just watch price direction; focus on liquidity and be sure to set stop-losses.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
PPI and CPI appear back-to-back, leaving the Federal Reserve no buffer these days. The overall inflation rebound has been pre-played by the market; the real uncertainty is whether core inflation can drop a notch month-over-month.
No rush to bet on direction yet. The more important question is: if inflation pressure eases, where will the follow-up funds come from?
On October 12, the US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of 65.4 million and 85.4 million USD respectively. Capital leaving is not a bearish verdict, but it adds a barrier to the rebound—without net subscription inflows, price rises lack spot buying support.
BTC 83,356, ETH 2,505, SOL 107.41. Tonight, only three things are confirmed:
1. Whether core CPI is weaker than expected. This is the first gate for risk appetite.
2. After BTC rallies, whether ETH and SOL can keep up. If their exchange rates against BTC remain unrepaired, BTC’s solo strength looks more like a temporary capital gathering rather than a spread of risk appetite.
3. Whether it can hold steady after the initial pulse. Data controls the first jump; follow-through controls sustainability. A spike followed by a retreat indicates insufficient chasing orders; a pullback with support and higher lows looks like a reversal.
So tonight, no guessing on rise or fall, just verification. The quality of ETH and SOL’s relay is a better indicator of whether risk appetite has returned than BTC’s solo charge.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI at 3.7% shatters the illusion of a "pause in rate hikes"
On October 14, the US September CPI data was released: a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, also exceeding expectations.
Do you understand the weight of this number?
Before this, the market logic was "inflation is cooling down, the Fed will pause rate hikes." The probability of a rate hike in October was once suppressed to around 20%. Bears dared not heavily short under this logic, while bulls dared to chase higher.
Then CPI slapped everyone in the face.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in October quickly rebounded from around 20%, and the probability of a rate hike in December exceeded 80%. Bitcoin fell directly from around 84,000 to below 82,000.
More critically, this is not an isolated event. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that 9 out of 18 members believe there will be another rate hike within the year. Fed official Waller further quantified expectations on October 8: market pricing shows an 85% probability of at least one rate hike by December, and nearly 80% probability of at least two rate hikes before March 2027.
Bitcoin falling from 84,000 to 80,230 is not a "correction." The market is repricing the fact that "rate hikes will not stop."
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $WAL won't drop anytime soon, smart money shorts have a cost around 0.52, the cost of shorting is too high. Just paying the fees alone won't crash the market. Let's wait and see if the fees drop later before considering shorting.Overinvest: Risk excess capacity, escalating depreciation, and poor returns on invested capital.
Monetize too slowly: Allow infrastructure costs to hit cash flow long before new AI revenue becomes material.
The recent reporting strengthens this interpretation: Zuckerberg reportedly acknowledged that Meta was prepared to invest up to $200 billion despite uncertainty about whether its AI initiative would succeed. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook Samsung is down 6% and SK Hynix 7% pre-market, and US memory stocks slid overnight. Just days ago, Micron's CEO touted $150B in locked-in long-term orders and tighter supply for the next two years. Great story, yet the price dropped in a day.
My advice to leveraged traders: when narrative and price diverge, trust price. If the AI hardware chain starts splitting, risk-off will hit high-beta assets like $BTC fast. Don't wait to get hit; react early.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins ##TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC is going to release its latest earnings report this Thursday✨
Actually, a 50% year-over-year revenue growth is nothing new; the market already got preliminary data last week making this clear. What really holds the market's pulse are three key numbers hidden in the earnings report: gross margin, full-year performance guidance, and next year's capital expenditure.
TSMC's preset range for Q3 gross margin is 65%-67%, but last quarter's gross margin even touched a high of #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Brothers, TSMC's Q3 financial report just came out. As usual, don't just watch the hype, look at the essentials.
Single-quarter net profit reached 763 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 68.7%, directly surpassing the market expectation of 746.3 billion, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record-breaking results. The 3nm process accounted for 33% of wafer revenue, and the 2nm process, just starting mass production, contributed 8%. This ramp-up speed is much faster than expected. Advanced processes make up 79% of total revenue. In plain terms, global AI computing power orders are pouring crazily into TSMC's production lines.
What does this have to do with our crypto circle? A lot. Recently, Bitcoin dropped to $80,230 due to CPI data missing expectations, triggering $484 million in liquidations across the network within an hour, with long positions accounting for $464 million. But on the other hand, Bitcoin mining companies are accelerating the shift of their computing power contracts towards AI and HPC, with a cumulative contract scale of about $100 billion. Miners are no longer mining coins but selling computing power to AI companies; Genesis Digital Assets, IREN, and others are making this transition. This is not a small trend.
On the funding side, Wintermute's recent analysis also confirms this—when mainstream coins are under pressure, money hasn't left the market but moved from DeFi to AI-related tokens, with NEAR considered a typical beneficiary. AI and crypto now share the same computing power resources: Nvidia needs chips, TSMC manufactures chips, miners supply power and facilities, and the tokens we trade act as intermediaries for capital rotation.The battle to defend 80,000 has begun, and 4.8 billion has already withdrawn 😱
Looking at BTC, 81,000 didn't hold, and it broke through directly this afternoon.
ETH (-5.94%), "If 2400 breaks, watch 2350"—just one breath away.
SOL (-4.83%), all three brothers are in the red today, each worse than the last.
Money matters are the most telling.
In 24 hours, BTC contracts saw 1.849 billion exit, spot saw 452 million exit, totaling 2.3 billion.
ETH is even worse, contracts 1.973 billion, spot 570 million, totaling 2.543 billion.
Together, the two brothers total over 4.8 billion, and "running first as a courtesy" has become the mainstream.
But the last hour is interesting.
BTC contracts had a net inflow of 21.07 million in 1 hour, ETH contracts net inflow of 18.01 million.
Regarding fees, BTC is at 0.0075%, higher than at noon. After breaking 81,000, bulls are still paying premiums to hold positions. ETH fees at 0.0022%, just a step away from turning negative.
My view is just two points.
① It's normal to run money before the announcement; with CPI leaning hawkish and tonight's 20:30 event pending, everyone fears a rate hike repricing.
② The 1-hour inflow is the first batch betting on "bad news fully priced in," with light positions.
If PPI really exceeds expectations, these people will be tomorrow's liquidations 📉
Right now, I'm only watching one number: the capital flow 1 hour after the announcement.
👉 If it turns positive, it means bottom-fishers are adding positions, and I'll watch for a rebound.
👉 If it turns negative, even the bottom-fishers are wrong, so 80,000 will likely be seen 👀 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.Over the past three days, XAUT has been rising, while xSKHY and xSNDK have been falling. This is not mysticism; it's the same money moving between two ends.
$XAUT is rising because safe-haven money is coming back. On the morning of October 15, gold prices broke through 4120~4150 consecutively, rising over 1% intraday, with XAUT following up to 4140. The US dollar index dropped by -0.42%, US Treasury yields fell, lowering the cost of holding gold; central banks purchased 63 tons of gold in September, the highest in nearly two years. But it is still -25% below the January ATH of 5505. This is a deep correction rebound, not a new high. 4100 is the bottom of this round.
$xSKHY is falling because the most crowded position in AI is deflating a bubble. ADR reported 138~139, down -9.5%~-11% in 24 hours, KOSPI dropped 7% triggering a sidecar. Four straws: Changxin 4F² breakthrough, Toshiba capacity expansion, HBM4 equipment delay, and $40 billion buyback ended early. Foreign investors have sold for 7 consecutive days. Demand is not bad; what’s bad is valuation.
$xSNDK is falling, telling the same story, with SanDisk even worse. Down -10.8% in a week, from the September 22 high of 1909 to the October 13 low of 1401, a 27% retracement. Even earnings beating expectations couldn’t stop the sell-off.
XAUT’s rise means money is looking for a place to hide, while the other two fall as money withdraws from the most crowded spots. The industry logic hasn’t collapsed; what collapsed are valuations and positions. #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 TSMC’s revenue has already surpassed expectations, so what should investors focus on during Thursday’s earnings call?
The company previously reported Q3 revenue of around $46.7 billion, beating its own forecast of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. With revenue figures already out, the real focus of Thursday’s call shifts to the cost side of the business, profit margins, and how efficiently TSMC is turning strong demand into earnings.
#DailyOrbit #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 This report card is quite controversial. First, cutting the standard version means actively giving up the volume market and relying on the high-end segment, narrowing the demand structure; second, the price increase results in limited perceived upgrade for ordinary users, channels have already started to diverge, some Pro models are selling below cost, only the Max and foldable models maintain a premium; third, the foldable iPhone Duo has high costs and expensive pricing, representing a long-term layout that is unlikely to contribute to sales in the short term. CPI came out overnight, and something strange happened.
The US Treasury yield surged to 5.33% last night, then dropped straight back to 5.11% this morning. Money got cheaper, so Bitcoin should have caught a breather.
But Bitcoin didn’t rise; it kept falling and is now at 81,000.
The key is how the US Treasury yield dropped.
Inflation fell, everyone thought no more rate hikes would come, so Treasuries went down, which is good—money dares to come out and play, and Bitcoin would rise along.
Today is not like that. Today the stock market crashed, and everyone got scared and fled to Treasuries. When money floods in, yields get pushed down.
Last night the Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the worst day since July. Asia continued to crash today; the South Korean stock market fell as much as 8% intraday, with Samsung and SK Hynix both down over 10%. The AI sector got smashed badly.
AI companies are building data centers, mostly borrowing money. When rates rise, borrowing gets more expensive, and they are the first to buckle.
This time Bitcoin wasn’t treated as a safe haven but sold off along with tech stocks. Those mining companies switching to AI computing power fell as much as 13% last night.
So today’s drop in Treasuries is not good news for Bitcoin; it shows the market is scared.
Oil hasn’t eased either. Brent is still around $105, and fighting broke out again near the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency is meeting in Paris today to discuss whether to release another 100 million barrels from emergency reserves. If they do, oil prices could ease a bit, which is the only good news to hope for right now.
I said before that if US Treasuries fall back below 5.2%, it’s a signal for Bitcoin to go up. When the timing is right, Bitcoin will first look at 83,200, then Ethereum at 2,410! $BTC $ETH US inflation data exceeded expectations, causing Bitcoin to directly drop below 81,000, with billions of dollars in liquidations hitting the market. AVAX, SEI, and INJ all followed the decline; none of these projects had internal issues. APT rose 51% over four weeks, but on-chain stablecoins shrank by 17.5%. The rally relies on sentiment rather than capital, and this structure won't hold for long. With macro pressure, rebounds are just brief escape windows.
I just opened the security booth window for some fresh air; a car came in, registered, and then I continued watching the market.
WAL current price is 0.0582, stuck above a previous dense zone. MACD shows a bearish crossover below zero, RSI peaked and is falling back, indicating weak short-term momentum. Around 0.0571 there is dense liquidation, which is a key support; breaking below it would trigger a chain liquidation. Above, at 0.06, liquidation pressure is significantly reduced, and selling pressure is lighter. The short-term trend is mainly sideways, but support below is clearer than resistance above.
Trading strategy: mainly short positions. Enter gradually between 0.0585 and 0.0592, take profit first at 0.0572, second at 0.0558. Stop loss at 0.0605; if price rises above this, admit the mistake and exit. Avoid long positions; wait until 0.0571 truly holds before considering a rebound trade, and keep position size light. In this market, staying alive is more important than making quick profits.
$WAL
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
@OKX星球 There are three magnets above the empty avatar, but the magnets may not necessarily hold the price 🌙 If it really surges, is it a short squeeze or another fakeout? Just finished watching the 12-hour liquidation chart, feeling a familiar slight tension. BTC, ETH, and SOL all have short positions stacked above, like three rubber bands stretched to the limit. - BTC: Around 84375.7, about 32.18 million U liquidations, +0.74% from current price - ETH: Around 2545.16, about 13.98 million U liquidations, +1.3% from current price - SOL: Around 108.85, about 2 million U liquidations, +1.03% from current price The numbers don’t look far, right? But from the perspective of cross-market linkage, I care more about three things. First, these three trigger points are almost squeezed into the same narrow range. This means that once risk appetite warms up, BTC will lead the way up, and the liquidations of ETH and SOL will resonate, causing short-term buying to be passively amplified, and altcoin sentiment will also relax. This is a bullish path. Second, but the resonance could also be reversed. If BTC first fakes a breakout then pulls back, the pressure above ETH and SOL will turn into a bull trap, and those chasing highs will become the next batch of fuel. Cross-market synchronous rallies require consistent expectations, and with macro data not yet released, this consistency is fragile. Third, what I’m really watching is whether the funding rates turn positive simultaneously and whether open interest continues to accumulate during the rally. If the price surges but funding rates aren’t hot and OI doesn’t increase, it’s likely a pulse, not a trend. Bearish biasChangxin said "the number of bare dies per wafer increases by at least 50%," but don't rewrite that as a 50% cost reduction yet.
I reviewed the company's original announcement for the G5 platform, and the footnote is very clear: the comparison is against their own fourth-generation technology platform, with the number of bare dies calculated based on 8Gb die units. It provides a specific process improvement metric, not a conclusion comparing costs with all competitors.
Having more bare dies per wafer does help spread costs. But how many qualified products can ultimately be sold depends on yield, processing costs, and packaging testing. The increase in bare dies and the cost reduction per sellable product are separated by a production process; you can't directly transfer the percentage.
In this round of storage stock fluctuations, both sentiments seem too hasty to me. Seeing technical progress and assuming old manufacturers' profits will be wiped out; or thinking new players have limited short-term shipments and can be ignored entirely. Competitive impact may first show in customer negotiations. Once buyers start seriously comparing alternatives, even if market share hasn't changed much, price negotiations can become tougher.
I am willing to seriously consider Changxin's progress and hope discussions can be based on the same comparison benchmark. Later, I want to see yield of sellable products and evidence of customer deliveries. Jumping to rearrange global storage profits without even reading the footnotes in the technical announcement is really too rushed.
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.$SNDK SanDisk, Hynix, Samsung, and all those messy storage chip makers, just short and be done with it.
Why are these chip makers definitely going to fall?
The main reason is that these companies keep shouting every day,
"Oh~ capacity is not enough, inventory is insufficient."
Let's put it this way, if this thing could make money in the long run, these companies would have already expanded capacity and started competing on who sells more.
Anyone with money who doesn't make money is a fool, everyone understands that.
Now prices are skyrocketing, but when it comes to expansion, not a single word comes out. Obviously, these manufacturers or the entire industry have a consensus.
This thing could crash at any time. Do you really expect AI to become evergreen? The algorithms in the US are indeed powerful, but actual applications are basically zero, and the popularity and utilization are far lower than in China, unless there is another breakthrough in high-end algorithms.
Otherwise, 95% of users are using the free version, just asking a question and that's it, at most letting it help you edit something, produce a copy, or fix a few pictures. The very few who do AI videos, how much computing power can they really use?
The market is basically saturated now. Without any new technological breakthroughs, the market will head south at any time.
It's similar to the mining crash in 2022, but back then these manufacturers weren't so smart. They expanded mining capacity wildly, ending up with a huge pile of inventory. After the mining crash, they were stuck with it, and the market went straight down. The annual flash memory price drop exceeded 40%.
Now they play it smart. When the market is good, they raise prices aggressively but don't increase capacity. When the market is saturated or crashes, they shrink back like turtles, waiting for the next technological breakthrough to raise prices again. So essentially, a drop is guaranteed.#PalantirQ3Valuation #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Last night, as the US inflation data was released, Bitcoin immediately plunged from its high, causing tens of thousands of contracts to liquidate instantly! 😱
Right now, the market is focused on tonight's production-side data. CPI reflects whether everyday goods are getting more expensive, while PPI shows if factory production costs continue to rise.
If factory costs also rise tonight, US Treasury yields will likely struggle to fall, and Bitcoin at the 80,000 level will become the last key support.
Conversely, if the data cools down, the market will have reason to believe this was just caused by oil prices, and funds might boldly flow back in.
Currently, $BTC has dropped from its high to around 80,000, with the market repeatedly testing this critical support level. The price is stuck in the 80,000–81,000 range; if it breaks down, the next stop could be 78,000.
After tonight's data release, the direction will become clear. Whether it holds or breaks depends on how strong the PPI is.
$ETH $SOL
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 To be honest, in the short term, it's highly likely that the market will experience a frustrating period of volatility rather than an immediate sharp reversal and surge. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The root cause of this decline is still the US inflation data exceeding expectations. The market is starting to believe that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, and even doesn't rule out further rate hikes. As US Treasury yields continue to rise, all high-risk assets come under pressure, with US tech stocks, storage, and cryptocurrencies all dropping together.
Let's first talk about US stocks, especially the storage sector we've been watching closely.
The prices have risen too much before, and the stock prices have already priced in the AI benefits in advance. Now, investors have become very picky; if earnings reports are slightly below expectations, the stock is immediately sold off.
Like SanDisk, stuck at the 1500 resistance level for a long time, with many profit-taking positions waiting to be cashed out. Plus, Musk's tweet supporting Micron made the market worry that SanDisk's sharp price increase might lose customers, so bulls dare not push the price up aggressively.
In the short term, storage stocks are unlikely to rally straight back to new highs; they will probably fluctuate repeatedly, rebounding on good news but being pushed back down by macroeconomic negatives.
Now, let's talk about the crypto space, like ETH and BTC.
They are most sensitive to interest rates. As long as the market expects rates to remain high, funds are unwilling to stay in crypto.
Once the market goes down, leveraged positions will cascade liquidate, causing the drop to be much sharper than stocks. Even if there is a rebound in between, it will look more like a correction, making it difficult to start a new bull market immediately.
Going forward, focus on two things:
US Treasury yields and statements from US officials.
As long as Treasury yields continue to rise, it will be very difficult for risk assets to have a big rally.$MUBARAK This 20x position gained +480.77%, relying on the logic of resistance after the breakout.
Short opened at 0.075724, mark price 0.057518. After the key support was broken earlier, support turned into resistance; every rebound is an escape opportunity, the bulls suffer more the longer they hold.
The profit is very tempting, but don't be greedy. At the current position, chasing shorts at low levels will definitely get shaken out.
My bottom line: ✅ Take profit on most positions ✅ Break-even stop loss on remaining positions at 0.052-0.054 ✅ No chasing shorts if not entered, wait for a rebound
Breakout resistance is the deadliest; the position must stay alive to have the next round of bullets. Don’t guess the bottom, don’t catch the falling knife. $BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Bitcoin miners are about to face a difficulty adjustment.
Around October 16, the difficulty is expected to increase by 5.68%.
Sounds like not much.
But it has a more direct consequence: with the same hash power, the amount of money mined will decrease by 5.37%.
Here’s how the 5.37% comes about.
There’s something called hashprice, which means how much you can earn per unit of hash power per day.
Right now, that number is 39.77 USD.
When difficulty rises, the same machine mining for the same day will get fewer coins.
Income drops first.
The key is this number hasn’t deducted electricity costs yet.
So whether mining is truly profitable depends on two things: how much you earn and how much electricity costs.
Old mining rigs with cheap electricity can still hold on.
New rigs with expensive electricity are in danger.
Here’s a calculation:
For machines with efficiency of 20 joules per terahash, at 8 cents per kWh electricity price, the electricity cost alone eats up all the profit.
In other words, it’s not that mining less causes losses, but that electricity costs are higher than the income from mining.
So why is the difficulty suddenly adjusting?
Bitcoin automatically adjusts difficulty every 2016 blocks, aiming for an average of one block every ten minutes.
Because total hash power is increasing, blocks are being found faster, so difficulty must rise accordingly.
That’s also why it’s "expected" now, not "confirmed."
There are still over 300 blocks left before the adjustment, during which price, hash power, and costs may change.
The real watershed isn’t difficulty, it’s electricity price.
Miners with cheap electricity are expanding their machines.
Miners with expensive electricity are already shutting down #TSMC’s record-breaking revenue was already on the market’s radar before October 15, so presenting it as a fresh bullish surprise on earnings day may be missing the bigger picture.
On October 8, the company reported that September revenue jumped 54.6% year-over-year, while slipping 0.6% compared with the previous month. 📊
The takeaway? Strong annual growth doesn’t necessarily mean consistent month-to-month gains. Even in a booming AI chip market, short-term fluctuations.
#DailyOrbit Record numbers from TSMC, but I think the real story is what comes next. 🧐
Revenue was already disclosed month by month, so the surprise is limited. What matters now is the margin guidance (65%-67% vs 67.7% in Q2) and how much TSMC will spend on capex.
Still, with demand for AI chips this strong, I see the long-term picture as solid. Short term, the market may stay cautious. 📊
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit $TSM
Just my opinion, not financial advice.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The 81000 level is where others caught it, not where it held on its own.
$BTC dropped back near 81000 again early this morning.
This is the second time in two days testing this price.
What others think: catching it means a double bottom, looking back to 84000.
If it doesn't hold, then look at 80000, the anchor for the whole market is here.
How this number is calculated: 81000 was the entry point for funds during the last sharp drop.
The second test means the first batch of catchers are already at a loss.
The second time is more fragile than the first because fewer dare to catch it.
$OKB rose 2.4%, money is moving into platform tokens, seeking stability.
$STRK dropped 10% again, those chasing highs are still stuck at the peak.
Before the direction emerges, the first movers get hit first.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC $OKB #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, hitting a record high. The core driver is the explosive demand for AI computing power chips.
✅Key data: Net profit of 763.06 billion TWD, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%; revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-on-year; gross margin 66.4%, net margin surpassing 51%, with profits rising for multiple consecutive quarters. Advanced processes (7nm and below) form the revenue base, with HPC high-performance computing business continuing to contribute the largest income.
💡My thoughts:
1. AI is the core of this growth cycle. AI large models drive HPC chip orders, with 3nm and 5nm advanced process capacity in short supply. High-margin advanced processes elevate overall profitability. However, growth is highly tied to the AI industry chain; if downstream customers slow capital expenditures, it will directly impact future orders.
2. High capital investment is a double-edged sword. To meet AI orders, capacity expansion continues with high capital expenditure. The heavy asset model means significant future depreciation pressure.
3. The competitive landscape remains strong, but external variables are increasing. Advanced process barriers remain difficult to shake in the short term, but geopolitical issues, customer diversification, and local manufacturing costs are uncertainties to face in the mid to long term.
Currently, AI dividends are being realized with impressive performance, but high growth is not permanent. Going forward, focus on tracking AI capital expenditures and the pace of advanced process capacity release. TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations.Let's talk about some thoughts and plans.
In the past few months, I've only been buying the dip and adding some long positions, without other operations. Mostly just enduring the market. The current market is mostly about endurance, and it will probably be like this in the future as well...
It's hard to make flashy moves. For ordinary people, this is the only way to actually make some money—above spot, below futures... Currently, I think this is just a small-level top.
If it pulls back to around 7.6 (if it doesn't give a chance, I'll just hold what I have), I might add some positions. Overall, I still see 9.5-10.
This is also roughly the position of the B-wave rebound. Overall, I still expect a large-level consolidation... Mainly, the index has been doing an internal wave 4 since April last year until now.
Personally, I think after the midterm elections, there will be a small rally of about 10-20 points. After that, there will be a mid-term major correction of 20-30 points (not ruling out that the correction might start directly here). So the risk is quite high... If the final expected wave comes out later, I will consider clearing my positions around 9.5-10... I think the future will be a long period of large consolidation. The big opportunity will have to wait until the Nasdaq pulls back 20-30 points... Only then will it be the chance to heavily invest in the index and various assets.Term Structure Radar
$BTC marked positive basis shows a significant shrinkage in the bid-ask top level. The near-far basis is +2.27%, and the bid near-sell far top level quote spread is +1.21%.
$ETH top level positive basis corresponds to a very small scale. The bid near-sell far quote spread is +0.6%, with the top level pair size about $198; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 2%.Now panic sentiment has completely spread across the Asia-Pacific market, with the KOSPI Korea Composite Index's decline further expanding, intraday drop reaching 9%, and selling pressure surging on the board, causing market risk aversion to sharply intensify. Leading memory chip maker SK Hynix plunged nearly 12%, making the semiconductor sector a disaster zone, with a large amount of high-position long positions severely hit. It's unclear how many bulls will be buried inside again 😇. The collective sell-off in Asia-Pacific stock markets is just the appetizer; tonight's U.S. stock market opening is highly uncertain, and the outlook is hardly optimistic. Adding to this, key data releases tonight include the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims and the PPI Producer Price Index. The continuous release of inflation chain data will directly amplify market-wide volatility. If the PPI rises again, it will further strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and risk assets will continue to face pressure. Currently, global market logic is interconnected, with strong linkage among Korean and Japanese stock markets, U.S. tech stocks, and the crypto market. Korean retail investors heavily hold both chip stocks and cryptocurrencies; after stock market liquidations, some funds will be forced to reduce crypto holdings to cover margin calls, indirectly adding selling pressure on BTC and ETH. The crypto space, already fragile after the CPI negative impact, is vulnerable to further external negative shocks, which can easily trigger contract liquidations again. Going forward, focus on two points: first, whether the tech and semiconductor sectors can stop the collapse after the U.S. market opens; second, the quality of the PPI data. At this stage, macro factors completely dominate the market, with uncertainty at its peak. Do not casually bottom-fish or gamble on rebounds. Leverage positions must be tightened, prepare in advance for sudden spikes, and avoid holding positions betting on direction. #美国CPIThe market is still paying back CPI, but RSR has been rallying for the third consecutive day. How many more bites can Upbit's bowl offer?
Bitcoin is hovering around 81,000, ETH has dropped 2.7%, yet RSR (Reserve Rights) defies the trend with a +10% surge to 0.00218, making it the most eye-catching gainer on the leaderboard aside from ZK.
But to be clear, this isn’t a new story today. The real trigger was on October 12 when Upbit opened KRW and USDT trading pairs for it. Korean retail investors rushed in, pushing the price up by 50 to 60 points in a single candle that day; combined with the September community vote that changed the performance unlocking and burning mechanism, tightening supply expectations. Today's +10% feels more like a rebound on the third day after listing. I didn’t see any new positive news after checking around.
My judgment: The first bite of meat on a new exchange listing is the most delicious. Chasing on the third day usually just props up the first two batches. OKX’s 24-hour trading volume is only a bit over 1.4 million USDT; the main battlefield is actually Upbit’s KRW market. OKX is just a thin market following the trend. RSI is already at 67, price hugging the upper Bollinger Band, easy to pump and easy to dump, slippage and spikes will bite.
Watch for two signals: whether it can break and hold above the previous high of 0.0022 with volume on the Korean market not collapsing; once Korean won buying power recedes and volume shrinks on the rally, it’s basically a short-term profit-taking window. DYOR, not investment advice.
#RSR #stablecoin #Upbit#Tesla delivery beats expectations, profit recovery becomes focus #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of ad-supported plans is still lower than that of ad-free plans. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user engagement, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment Judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth tracking, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of "doubling ad revenue." More importantly, watch: ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a "story" to "cash flow"; if not, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly 💫20261015
1. Fed rate hike bets double
1. CPI September 3.7%, August 3.4%; Core September 2.6%, August 2.4%, both numbers slightly higher than expected; gasoline rose the most
2. Before the CPI data release, the market was betting about 20% chance of a rate hike, after release it rose to 47%
3. BTC intraday low on October 14 was 81588.88, 30-day increase 4.27%; monthly still intact, intraday already broken
4. BTC pays no interest, 2-year US Treasury yield 4.87%, market bets split 50/50
2. ETH zero-knowledge proof speed race
1. Zksync has consecutively processed 7200 mainnet blocks, 99% of proofs completed within 10s, one block every 12s; no proof is slower than block production
2. The selling point for banks: even if the server is hacked, no invalid ledger update can pass verification
3. Whose proof system first obtains formal verification
3. ETH down 4.45% this week, currently around 2500
1. Bought ETH 9 years ago at $50, spent $370k USD, now worth 19,260K; unstaked and deposited into Kraken.
2. Three signals:
(1) Coins are moving to exchanges
(2) Whales going OTC: an OTC whale bought nearly 10,000 coins, cashed out 25,000k
(3) US buyers retreating: comparing the same coin price on exchange C$CRCL Don't rush to copy yet.
From a fundamental perspective, since October 4th, USDC supply has also dropped from 75.4 billion to 72.67 billion, approaching 71.75 billion, putting Circle's fundamentals under pressure. The technical outlook is also bearish, with a high probability of further decline.
There are two possible trends: support between 58-66, possibly stabilizing. If it breaks 58, then look at 50, or even 45-50. Although the second scenario is more likely, breaking 58 is not guaranteed.
Operation is divided into two parts 3:7: buy low between 58-66, place a regular limit order near 50, and adjust later if USDC or the trend changes.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
US September CPI exceeded expectations, doubling the probability of a rate hike in October overnight: Tonight's PPI is the key variable!
US September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7% (previous 3.4%, expected 3.6%), core CPI year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.6% (previous 0.4%). Inflation pressure is no longer limited to energy but has spread to entertainment, used cars, healthcare, education, clothing, and other sectors.
Market pricing for tightening has surged sharply: the bet on an October rate hike jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, nearly doubling; under CME metrics, the probability of a rate hike before year-end has risen to over 96%. Risk assets are collectively under pressure, US stocks sold off, Nasdaq fell 1.88%, marking the largest single-day drop since July, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.3%, the US dollar strengthened, and gold plunged.
Tonight's focus: US September PPI. The market consensus expects a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, core up 0.3%. If PPI exceeds expectations, it will further confirm the stickiness of inflation and heighten rate hike concerns; if it moderately falls back, it could provide the market a breathing space.
In short: CPI has put the October rate hike back on the table, and tonight's PPI will determine whether to add fuel to the fire or temporarily cool down. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
I am Script Brother, and TSMC's earnings report is like a strong shot of confidence for the AI industry.
Revenue grew 50.9%, net profit grew 68.7%.
This speed of making money even makes a money printer call it big brother.
But what I care more about is not the profit, but the industrial logic behind it.
Is AI really a bubble?
My view is that AI valuations may have a bubble, but the real demand is definitely not a bubble.
Why?
Because tech giants can boost stock prices by storytelling, but TSMC has to make money with real orders.
If chips don't sell, the earnings report won't play along with you.
What's more interesting is that the AI industry chain is forming a huge wealth distribution structure.
Upstream chip sellers are making a fortune, while downstream AI application developers are still burning money desperately.
It's like the gold rush back in the day.
The gold miners may not make money, but the shovel sellers have already gotten rich.
However, TSMC making money doesn't mean all AI companies can make money.
The real dividing line in the future is not who has the most computing power, but who can turn computing power into profit.
It's the same for the crypto world.
AI concept coins are loudly hyped, but very few projects can actually generate cash flow.
So don't blindly rush just because you see the two letters AI.
Stories can be hyped for a while, but profits can sustain a lifetime.
What do you think, will the biggest winner in this AI round be the chip sellers or the application makers?
Let's chat in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC There is a trader called Loracle who shorted almost the entire market.
He holds more than a dozen US stock contracts, all shorts:
NVIDIA, Oracle, SanDisk, Micron... all the names that have surged the most in this AI rally.
What he is shorting is not a specific coin, but the "AI narrative." And so far, he is right.
But at the same time, he went long on Bitcoin, the only long position, which is $BTC .
He also has a bunch of altcoins, all short positions.
The result is:
Almost all the shorts are making money. And the only long position lost more than half of all the profits from his shorts.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Delivery is good news in terms of "volume," but the earnings report is the real test of "profitability." On October 2, Q3 deliveries reached 486,532 vehicles, 5.3% higher than the company's compiled consensus (about 462,000), with the stock price rising 4.65% in a single day; however, production was 464,391 vehicles, meaning deliveries exceeded production by about 22,000 vehicles, indicating that part of this was due to inventory and in-transit vehicles being absorbed, not purely a surge in new orders.I think Binance's Ethereum deposit and withdrawal maintenance is just a precaution, trading continues as usual during the inspection. ETH spot is about 2365 USDT (Beijing 14:42, OKX).#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Advertising business is currently just a growth highlight, not the main source of revenue — this is the easiest point to misjudge when looking at this issue.$SOL : Positive News Doesn’t Guarantee a Pump!
Solana’s Shanghai developer event and CZ’s public support are positive for ecosystem sentiment, but they’re not signals of a major price rally.
A short-term hype-driven bounce is possible, especially in Solana meme coins, but “buy the rumor, sell the news” could trigger profit-taking once the event begins.
The bigger picture still depends on macro conditions, US Treasury yields, and Fed rate-cut expectations.
#KOSPIDropsNearly8% The market is paying off CPI debts, yet funds are doubling an old game coin whose "DAO even shut down the chain." What's going on?
Bitcoin is hovering around 81,000, OKB has dropped 5%, and hot money isn't going to mainstream coins but is instead flocking to old game coins like MAGIC — which surged another 9.6% today to 0.1177. It was just above 0.07 at the beginning of October, more than doubling in just over a week, with a peak at 0.12.
Let's pour some cold water first: this is not GameFi's second spring. Treasure, the project behind MAGIC, has basically been contracting this year, even handing over its own chain to the DAO to shut down. Ninety percent of the tokens are already in circulation, with no new partnerships or on-chain data to support it. This wave looks more like a leveraged short squeeze and high turnover gambling in a thin market triggered by AI-agent game narratives. Overseas analysts straightforwardly call this a "leverage story."
The market is honest too: OKEx's 24-hour trading volume is only about 2.5 million USDT, typical of a small, thin market. The price is firmly suppressed below the 0.1179 resistance line and the MA5. Today, a spike to 0.12 was immediately pushed back down, easy to pump and easy to dump; there's also the looming pressure of a multi-million token unlock, and once the short squeeze loses momentum, the price usually drops straight down.
Watch two signals: whether it can break and hold above the previous high of 0.12 with volume, or if it repeatedly spikes and shrinks volume at resistance — the latter basically means the final stage. Don't use the logic for chasing Bitcoin to catch a falling knife. DYOR, not investment advice.
#MAGIC #GameFi #TreasureKORU is currently in a contradictory state of "long-term fundamental logic intact + short-term price structure severely damaged." My view is that this position is more suitable for observation or waiting for a right-side signal rather than attempting to bottom-fish.
Fundamentals: The long-term narrative remains but is overshadowed by short-term panic
The underlying driver of the South Korean economy—AI-related semiconductor exports and equipment investment—remains solid. The Korea Development Institute (KDI) October report clearly points out that semiconductor and computer exports maintain high growth, and AI infrastructure-related categories (steel, non-ferrous metals, etc.) exports also maintain a good trend. Both the IMF and AMRO have raised South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 3.3%.
Currently not touching it, but it is on the watchlist. There are three reasons:
First, triple leverage will continue to "decay" in a sideways and volatile market; even if the KOSPI remains flat, KORU's value will be eroded. The panic sentiment in the Korean stock market has not been fully released yet, and the probability of sideways or slow decline is not low.
Second, the liquidity depth on OKX is insufficient to support high-leverage positions. A $6.5 million position size means large liquidations could trigger a chain reaction, and spread costs and slippage will significantly eat into profits.
Third, the technicals need to be rebuilt after the stock split. The 20-for-1 split changed the price coordinates, so previous support and resistance references have limited value; the market needs time to form a new trading range.
If you must participate, wait for a clear stabilization signal from the South Korean KOSPI The countdown will continue, but the market may not follow accordingly
$LTC's next halving is expected in July 2027, with the block reward dropping from 6.25 to 3.125 coins.
This event has clear rules, but there is no fixed timeline for when the price will react.
I think the easiest mistake is to interpret "future reduced supply" as "buy now and the price will rise."
Those who buy before the halving might also sell before it actually happens. What really needs observation is whether, after repeated discussions of expectations, there is still new buying demand—not just that the countdown has fewer days.
$ETC's reduction method is different; every 5 million blocks, the block reward decreases by 20%, not a direct halving.
So you can't just see the word "reduction" and copy the historical gains of other coins.
A decrease in new supply can be a reason for research, but if demand is also falling, the price may still be under pressure.
I treat the reduction as one condition; market performance afterward is needed for confirmation.
For $XLM, I pay more attention to how much coin needs to be retained for payment growth.
It is used for network fees, rent, and meeting minimum balance requirements.
But a large transfer amount does not mean an equivalent amount of XLM needs to be bought and held long-term.
I prefer to see how much balance users need to keep after continuous use. The growth of payment business is worth noting, but how much token demand increases still needs further calculation.