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#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
The streaming giant Netflix's traditional subscriber growth has clearly peaked, with user increments entering a bottleneck period, and overall revenue growth continuing to slow down. The original growth logic has basically come to an end.
The market's core focus has completely shifted: the advertising business has become Netflix's only high-growth engine.
The data is very impressive, with advertising revenue expected to surge significantly in 2025. The company has set a clear goal to double advertising revenue to $3 billion by 2026. Relying on AI-optimized ad placements, popular series, and sports live IP support, the scale of paying advertising users continues to expand, which is Netflix's core trump card to stabilize its valuation.
However, there are also critical weaknesses: the advertising business currently accounts for a relatively low proportion of revenue, making it difficult in the short term to offset the sluggish growth of the subscriber business. U.S. tech stocks now heavily depend on realizing new growth points, and if advertising growth falls short of expectations, it can easily trigger a valuation correction.
The sentiment of U.S. growth stocks directly affects risk appetite in the crypto market. Weak growth in benchmark stocks like Netflix will suppress the overall enthusiasm of the tech sector. In the short term, do not blindly go long on risky assets; maintain a range-bound mindset, wait for corporate earnings reports and new business data to materialize, and strictly use stop-losses on all trades without prematurely betting on positive news.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, the numbers are explosive, but the stock price fell.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes making up 79% overall. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, this fundamental is very solid.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margin declines, it indicates cost pressure on advanced processes is eating into profits. Also, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch.
For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as the underlying anchor asset still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance shows the cost of burning cash is rising, and the valuation of the entire semiconductor chain needs to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still bearing the pressure of CPI exceeding expectations; the impact of TSMC's earnings report is secondary.
In terms of trading, don't chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI data, see how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to enter or not. Multiple U.S. economic data released in the evening collectively showed negative signals: initial jobless claims, September retail sales, and both the annual and monthly PPI all exceeded market expectations. However, negative data does not necessarily mean the market will immediately plunge; the short-term impact of this data is limited, making it difficult to trigger a sharp one-sided market move.
Several data points strengthening simultaneously further confirm that the resilience of the U.S. economy remains, which will continue to support the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining a somewhat hawkish stance. However, the influence of a single round of data is limited, and the market is likely to continue its current bottom-range oscillation pattern.
There is no need to blindly short just because of negative data. The focus should be on observing the capital flow release after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, seeing how the stock market digests this batch of data, and then judging the subsequent direction of the crypto market. At this stage, continue to maintain a range-bound approach and patiently wait for clear signals from the market.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $BTC $ETH #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 results exceeded expectations: revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, net profit of 763.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, with 2nm mass production contributing 8%, and advanced process nodes accounting for 79%. AI demand remains the core support. However, the stock price fell instead of rising, indicating that the positive news has already been priced in. The market's real concern is that gross margin is dragged down by the initial mass production of 2nm and overseas factory construction, as well as the possibility of a significant increase in capital expenditures in 2027. Simply put, the fundamentals are very strong, but short-term sentiment has shifted from "chasing the AI narrative" to "calculating AI returns." The key going forward depends on the Q4 guidance and whether capital expenditures again exceed expectations; if they only meet expectations, valuation pressure will continue to suppress the stock price. The mid-to-long-term AI logic remains intact, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Before the PPI data was released, the market was already falling, and once the data came out, it accelerated the plunge.
$BTC slid all the way from above 83000 to 80168, $ETH dropped to 2315, and $SOL was the worst, hitting a low of 100.46, barely holding the triple digits. Now it has slightly caught its breath, with BTC at 81000, ETH at 2363, and SOL at 102.15.
PPI is 6.3%, expected 5.3%, inflation hasn't come down at all. CPI just exploded, now PPI follows suit. Rate cuts are completely off the table, and the threat of rate hikes is back. This isn't just a single data issue; two consecutive inflation indicators are slapping the face of the market, basically shattering the fantasy of a Fed pivot.
Looking at the market, the first wave of the plunge has just passed, but the bulls haven't given up yet. Positions haven't decreased much, and funding rates haven't turned extremely negative, indicating leverage hasn't been fully cleared. Bottom fishing now is just giving away money; even if you want to try, wait until the market volume shrinks and stabilizes.
I'm still holding shorts, not because I'm bearish, but because in this kind of market, both longs and shorts are easily stopped out. Forcing trades is just giving away money. Let the leverage clear itself first; there's no rush now.
Key support levels below: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95. Don't rush to catch the round numbers; catching them poorly means bleeding hands.
Did you hold up through tonight's market?
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Hayes went on a buying spree today, and ZAMA jumped 9% along with it, but this market is too thin to get too excited about.
On-chain monitoring detected that Arthur Hayes bought about $888,000 worth of coins today through FalconX and Flowdesk, including roughly 3 million ZAMA tokens valued at about $197,000, alongside AERO and PENDLE. ZAMA is working on fully homomorphic encryption, which basically means data can be encrypted yet still computed on. This fits perfectly with the AI privacy computing narrative. When a celebrity buys in, the funds tend to ignite the story, and OKEx spot price surged up to +9.4% today, reaching around 0.074.
Let's cool down a bit: ZAMA’s share in this basket is the smallest, less than 20%, with the real heavy hitter being AERO; plus, the 24-hour spot trading volume is only around $1.55 million, and the price is already close to the intraday high of 0.076. With such a thin market, a celebrity wallet can be both a tailwind and a scythe—pumping smoothly but dumping without warning.
Watch for one signal: whether Hayes’ wallet adds more positions and if the volume can hold above 0.076; relying on a single $197,000 buy to hold the price is risky, and a pullback after a spike is highly probable once the hype fades. DYOR, this is not investment advice.
#ZAMA #FHE #AI#TSMCQ3RecordProfit New York Fed President Williams speaks with a dovish tone
Williams' role is quite special; he has a relatively independent position.
He is the only member of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) who is not a member of the Fed's Board of Governors.
As a regional bank president, he is the only permanent member with voting rights in Fed decisions.
Williams believes there may be one more rate hike this year, and no further increases will be needed next year.$ETH data has been released, and it's still all bearish!
To put it simply, PPI usually leads CPI, but this time it came after CPI.
Both the monthly and yearly rates exceeded expectations by a large margin. CPI was bearish ahead, and PPI is bearish afterward, which again raises expectations for future price increases!
My understanding is: PPI is the Producer Price Index. When PPI rises, production costs increase and must be passed on to consumers. However, today's retail sales monthly rate did not signal a cooling in consumption; the reported value even reached 0.8%, meaning consumer willingness and ability remain strong despite high prices.
The conclusion is: both PPI production costs and consumer spending power are pushing inflation higher because the retail sales monthly rate measures total consumption amount (excluding dining out, and other service industries are not included).
Initial jobless claims also did not indicate weakening employment, adding another layer of hawkish evidence!
Today's three data points—PPI, retail sales monthly rate, and initial jobless claims—all point to bearish outcomes.
For reference only, not investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The liquidation heatmap has just been updated, and the liquidation points for the four coins have tightened almost simultaneously, which is more alarming than any single indicator. $BTC current price is $81,655.8, with the largest short pain point above at $83,259.04, only +1.96% away; the largest long pain point below is at $81,200.95, just -0.56% away. $ETH current price is $2,417.3, with the upper point at $2,463.62 (+1.92%) and the lower at $2,396.69 (-0.85%). $SOL current price is $104.39, with the upper at $105.664 (+1.22%) and the lower at $103.364 (-0.98%). $ZEC current price is $1,140.51, with the upper at $1,197.072 (+4.96%) and the lower at $1,122.714 (-1.56%). What is truly noteworthy is not these numbers themselves, but the structure: the lower liquidation zones of all four coins are concentrated within less than 1.6% from the current price, while the upper pain points are dispersed between 1.2% and 5%. This asymmetry indicates that leveraged longs are accumulating in the same narrow zone, and once triggered, liquidations will cascade like dominoes. $ZEC has the thinnest lower buffer zone; the -1.56% gap means it has the lowest tolerance for external volatility, while the upper short pain point at +4.96% is$BTC $ETH PPI data exploded, will the bulls completely become fuel when the US stock market opens tonight??
This time, the US PPI data directly exceeded expectations, with the annual rate soaring from the previous 5.4% and expected 5.3% to 6.3%; the monthly rate also rose from the previous 0.4% and expected 0.5% to 1.3%. Inflation pressure on the production side has clearly increased.
More importantly, retail data performed better than expected, indicating that US consumption still has resilience and the economy shows no obvious signs of recession for now. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts may be further limited.
Previously, market bets on rate hikes had already heated up, and after the PPI exploded again, related expectations may continue to be revised upward. However, rate hikes are not set in stone; future moves will depend on inflation trends, employment data, and the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
If the risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues and oil prices keep rising, future inflation pressure may further increase. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The whole market is looking for a bottom, but institutions are not panicking at all. I reviewed yesterday's ETF data and found something quite unusual.
First, look at $BTC with a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday. BlackRock sold 13.34 million, Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They just bought over 20 million the day before, and sold it all the next day. This shows institutions are just testing BTC, pulling back immediately once CPI spikes.
Next, $ETH had a net outflow of only 51,900. Grayscale sold a little, BlackRock sold a little, basically no movement. The price has dropped to 2315, yet institutions neither buy nor sell, just watching.
$SOL is even more interesting: net outflow of 12,200, only Bitwise is selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflows, but compared to tens of millions in previous days, today's volume is almost negligible. The main force driving the dump is no longer ETFs, but longs in the contracts stepping on each other.
My conclusion: institutions are not panicking, they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually decreasing. This drop is mainly long liquidation by longs against longs. The SOL long-short ratio is still 2.68, longs haven't fully exited, so the chain reaction isn't over. Bottom fishing in this market is a gamble; wait until liquidation data stabilizes and the market fully steadies before considering action.
Key levels to note: BTC 80,000 / 78,000, ETH 2,300 / 2,200, SOL 100 / 95. Pure ETF flows and market observations do not constitute any trading advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
PPI exploded: +1.3%, expected only +0.6%
BTC at $80,767, $80,000 is at risk tonight.
US September PPI month-on-month +1.3%, more than double the expected +0.6%, $BTC now has $80,000 at risk. Core +0.5% also higher than expected +0.3%, year-on-year jumped to 6.3%, after CPI 3.7% another blow, December rate cut is basically off the table.
The market hasn't crashed yet, BTC is still around $80,767, but this is the "bullet hasn't flown yet" stage. Most likely $80,000 won't hold tonight, if broken look for $77,500. Any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, don't try to bottom fish.
Invalidation level: BTC recovers $82,000 and holds above itThis time, the US CPI data exceeded market expectations, confirming inflation stickiness. The market has lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. US Treasury real yields and the US dollar index are rising, global financial conditions are marginally tightening, and risk appetite in the crypto market is simultaneously declining. The market structure shows differentiation, with Bitcoin demonstrating relative resilience, while Ethereum and altcoins experience larger adjustments; leverage among long positions in the futures market is concentrated and stops are triggered, showing clear short-term capital outflows.
Regarding the subsequent market trend, the short-term market is likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern. The data continues to decline, and market rebounds are more of a phase correction; the core indicators to watch going forward are the core PCE data and policy statements from Federal Reserve officials. Changes in liquidity expectations remain the key variable driving the mid-term direction of the crypto space.The US September PPI annual rate recorded 6.3%, the highest since May 2026, exceeding market expectations.
As soon as the data came out, inflation exploded again. Is the Federal Reserve's plan to cut interest rates completely shattered?
For the week of October 10, initial jobless claims were 199,000, below the expected 200,000, with the previous value revised to 198,000. The labor market remains tight. The September PPI annual rate soared to 6.3%, far exceeding the expected 5.3%, with the previous value revised upward to 5.6%. Inflationary pressure on the production side has directly exploded.
Here is a counterintuitive perspective: initial jobless claims seem healthy, but the PPI surge indicates that cost pressures are intensely squeezing the end consumer.
Currently, companies would rather squeeze profit margins than lay off employees lightly, creating a stagflation shadow where employment appears stable but corporate profits are under pressure.
PPI is usually a leading indicator of CPI.
With production costs out of control, consumer inflation in the coming months will not decrease at all. The market's previously bet high-frequency rate cut logic has been shattered, and the Federal Reserve is now trapped in an extremely passive and awkward situation.
It is estimated that in the short term, risk assets such as US stocks and the crypto market will face severe shocks from liquidity repricing. The hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve will quickly rise, and it is even possible that discussions about pausing rate cuts will be revisited.
It is recommended to avoid high leverage in the short term, focus more on assets with stable cash flow, and prepare for a second test of liquidity tightening.
DYOR
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
However, the stock price reaction was moderate, mainly because expectations were already very high. The ramp-up of 2nm will suppress profit margins, coupled with huge capital expenditures. Management also spoke cautiously about next year, so don't expect a big surge in the short term. US September PPI exploded: final demand month-on-month +1.3% (expected about +0.6%), year-on-year +6.3% (expected about +5.4%), year-on-year excluding food, energy, trade, and services +5.0%. This is one of the strongest year-on-year increases since the end of 2022, another round of upstream inflation pressure following the hotter-than-expected CPI. Short-term risk assets should first watch for volatility; avoid chasing highs or panic selling. BTC spot around 80930 USDT, ETH around 2358 (Beijing 20:37, OKX). This does not constitute investment advice.Three consecutive bearish candles, but the reasons for the decline are not the same.
On the same day of decline, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL each have their own sources of selling pressure.
For $BTC, it's a sentiment retreat:
No large holders collectively withdrawing on-chain, and there is still support near the 400-day moving average.
For $ETH, it's about capital outflow:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are migrating out, indicating holders are actively reducing positions.
For $SOL, the pressure is on the contract side:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, leverage is pushing the price down, while spot outflows are relatively limited.
In other words, the one that fell sharply did not see much chip turnover.
The one that fell steadily is where money is truly flowing out.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC $ETH US September PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%; core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%. Both readings significantly exceeded market expectations and accelerated noticeably compared to August. Historically, the month-on-month PPI has been positive and rising for two consecutive months, with 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, returning to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% being the highest in this series. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are also expanding, rather than a single component driving the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration of producer prices means that the cost increases faced by companies are spreading. Whether this will be passed on to consumer prices will be a key observation point for the market to assess the inflation trajectory. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验Funding rates first "leak" 📊
At 20:30 tonight, before the CPI release, the funding rates have already submitted their answers. $BTC on two major platforms is almost hugging the zero line: 0.0039%, 0.0035%, both longs and shorts are restrained. 82,500 has been repeatedly tested and still holds, 84,000 is also suppressed, the price seems to be holding its breath waiting for the data. ⏳
$ETH is clearly split: Platform B's rate has flipped negative to -0.0043%, shorts start paying; Platform A's cumulative rate remains +0.0082%. Some are betting on a catch-up rally, others continue to be bearish. Spot ETFs continue to bleed, institutional interest is weaker than BTC, making ETH the most directionless and most afraid of a CPI surprise. ⚖️
$SOL is more straightforward: cumulative 0.0163%, real-time only 0.0033%, the tide is receding quickly. Price has returned near 107, bulls no longer add positions, courage is being drained. 📉
Overall: BTC is neutral waiting for change, ETH longs and shorts are torn, SOL bulls are retreating. The macro environment is also tough: ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million last week, ETH outflow of 542 million; the US dollar index is at an 18-month high, 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5.2%. Weak funding rates + capital outflows + macro tension, under triple pressure, the market is not without direction, but no one dares to bet first. 🚨#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Solana has entered Shanghai and is vigorously expanding its Asia-Pacific ecosystem, mainly to compete for ETH developers, application projects, and market share.
SOL and ETH have fundamental differences in technical routes, philosophy, and market positioning, currently showing more of a long-term coexistence and intense competition dynamic.【Project Research】ASTER: A Perpetual DEX with 99% Fees Used for Buybacks, Three Hidden Risks Under the Halo
ASTER was formed by the merger of Astherus and APX, launching its own public chain Aster Chain (privacy + zero Gas) in March 2026, backed by YZi Labs. Rapid growth: 24-hour perpetual trading volume is about $1.65 billion, accounting for approximately 9.4% of the entire industry, TVL is $776 million, and open interest is $1.35 billion.
The token model is the biggest selling point: starting June, 99% of protocol revenue is used for buyback and burn, and emissions are only released through staking, resulting in selling pressure better than most DEXs. But three risks must be laid out:
1. The top 10 addresses control about 93% of the supply, indicating highly concentrated holdings;
2. Only 34% is circulating, FDV is 3 times the market cap, and the team’s lock-up expires in September 2027;
3. Trading volume includes task incentive inflation, and up to 1001x leverage is a meat grinder for retail investors.
The mechanism innovation is real, but so are the risks of concentrated holdings and leverage. Before participating, closely monitor the real data of the Aster Chain ecosystem, and don’t be persuaded by the buyback narrative alone.CPI cold shot! BTC holds 80,000, ETH weakens first? 😶🌫️📉
Core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1 higher than expected, all eyes on it tonight. ⚠️
10 minutes after data release: 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC down 1.8%, gold down 1.0%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Earlier, gold and crypto took the hit first, now stock index futures are also down, anxiety has escalated from "high interest rates maintained" to "possibly more hikes needed." 📉🪙
Before the data, BTC was hovering around 81,700, ETH was even weaker near 2,400. With the boot dropped, the trend is bearish. BTC is just one step away from 80,000; without easing rates, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen independently. Watch 81,000 below first. ETH’s weak structure remains unchanged, altcoins continue to lose liquidity. 🧊
Tonight, I’m holding my position. Data doesn’t lie; what lies is your illusion about the data.Oh no, another round of waterfall
September PPI exceeded expectations along with retail exceeding expectations
Supply chain costs rising + strong consumer demand
Indicates that inflation driven by rising energy prices is permeating other sectorsUS September Producer Prices Rose Faster: The PPI released at 20:30 on October 15 showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3%, higher than the revised 0.5% in August; year-on-year up 6.3%. PPI measures the prices producers receive for selling goods and services, not the consumer shopping bill.
Energy is the main driver: commodity prices rose 2.6% month-on-month, with over 80% of the increase coming from energy. But excluding food, energy, and trade services, the index still rose 0.5%, faster than August's 0.3%, indicating pressure is not only from oil prices.
Directly affected are companies purchasing these goods and services. After cost increases, companies may compress profits or try to raise prices; how much can be passed on depends on demand and competition, so the PPI increase cannot be directly applied to consumer prices.
For BTC, transmission goes through interest rate expectations: if the market expects high rates to persist longer and the dollar to strengthen, risk asset buying may be pressured. Next, watch the actual reactions of US Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC, rather than treating one data point as a definite signal for price moves.
Source and chart: US Bureau of Labor Statistics September PPI, reviewed on 10/15; month-on-month is seasonally adjusted, year-on-year is not. The BTC/USDT spot below is for macro market observation only.
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/btc-usdtSeptember CPI recorded 3.7% and ETF net outflow of $585 million, OKX BTC rate stuck at 0.0009% in the first two hours before US stock market opens
September inflation exceeded expectations, rising to 3.7%. BTC spot on OKX traded at $80,950.7 turnover. Those with orders before US market opens should first watch the external market. Last night, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a sudden outflow of $585.9 million. I checked QCP's research report this afternoon; the daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 1, crude oil and energy prices rose 5.2% in a month, pushing inflation data higher again. External US bonds and corporate spreads widened. With two hours left before the US stock market opens at 21:30, on-exchange buying has clearly contracted.
I switched to OKX futures to check the market. BTC spot dropped 2.93% in one day, consolidating around $80,950.7. Total perpetual contract open interest across the platform stands at $7.694 billion, BTC perpetuals account for $3.113 billion, altcoin contracts $2.874 billion, with altcoin to BTC open interest ratio at 0.923. BTC funding rate is stuck at 0.0009%, annualized less than 1%, indicating neither longs nor shorts dared to increase leverage before the market opens. The fear and greed index is at 53, neutral. BTC market dominance rose to 60.01%, funds are still lying in spot.
External inflation exceeding expectations combined with ETF capital outflows makes betting on a one-sided rebound before market open not worthwhile. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC Q3 Earnings Analysis: Record High Performance, AI Demand Drives Growth, but Stock Price Pulls Back
TSMC (TSM) released its Q3 2026 earnings report, delivering results that significantly exceeded market expectations. Both quarterly revenue and net profit hit record highs for the quarter. AI chip demand was the core driver of this growth. However, following the earnings release, TSM and xTSM shares in the US market dropped more than 5% intraday, showing a typical "good news priced in" reaction.
Summary
In the short term, AI computing power demand remains strong, and TSMC's advanced capacity is in short supply, demonstrating strong fundamental resilience. The medium-term challenge lies in: the 2nm ramp-up causing gross margin decline and sustained high capital expenditures, combined with valuations already reflecting optimistic expectations. Going forward, two key points to watch are: first, whether the Q4 revenue guidance can continue to exceed expectations; second, whether capital expenditures will be further increased. These two factors will determine TSMC's future stock price trend. Not giving trading calls today, just saying some truths that might get me criticized.
The most surreal thing in the crypto space lately is:
On one hand, regulators are finally getting serious, with USDC being targeted by the EU's EBA;
On the other hand, exchanges are also going through a winter, even Binance has started cutting peripheral businesses like mining pools;
Meanwhile, tech-driven projects like Solana are still preparing big moves, with Alpenglow approaching, aiming directly at faster final confirmations.
It looks like a chaotic mix of good and bad news, but the main storyline is just one sentence:
Liquidity hasn’t returned, yet the stories are getting more expensive.
Many retail investors lose money not because they picked the wrong direction, but because they got the timing wrong.
Chasing the first candle after news breaks, bottom-fishing on the eve of a breakdown, going all-in before an upgrade betting on “good news landing.”
You’re not trading, you’re paying an emotional tax to the market.
Now I only focus on three things.
First, don’t oversimplify regulation as “all bad news is priced in.”
Stablecoins being regulated is a long-term industry entry ticket, but a short-term cost.
Those that survive will be more compliant, but more compliant doesn’t mean immediate price gains.
Small coins, wild exchanges, and arbitrage-dependent chains will feel the chill first.
Second, don’t take big players’ cutbacks as faith refills.
Exchanges cutting business means even traffic sources are calculating ROI.
When an industry starts closing inefficient entry points, it’s not doomsday, but it’s definitely not the roaring mid-bull market.
Third, don’t get ahead of yourself on public chain upgrades.
If speed-ups like Solana’s go smoothly, it’s indeed a narrative boost;
but before upgrades, three scenarios are most common: premature pump to cash out, panic from temporary glitches, and “good news fully priced in” after launch.
Technology is a marathon, contracts are a sprint, don’t hang the marathon medal around your neck too early.
Macro is even more obvious.
Inflation data isn’t cooperating, no matter how much the market talks about rate cuts, it will be like the boy who cried wolf.
The biggest taboo in crypto now isn’t shorting, it’s low-leverage shorts on high-volatility news, and high-leverage shorts on your own execution.
So I set three no-dos for October:
Don’t chase the first candle after news;
Don’t catch falling knives near key supports;
Don’t use high leverage to bet on any upgrades, listings, or hearings.
Only trade three types of moves:
Trend confirmations after close,
Rebounds after fake breakouts at key levels,
And stop losses within your own plan.
The harshest truth in this market is:
Bull markets reward position size, bear markets reward patience, and sideways markets reward not being impulsive.
Clearly, now is not the time to reward position size.
In the comments, share your “target price.”
Share your most painful recent lesson.Will history repeat itself? There is a widely discussed midterm election curse in the US stock market and BTC.
Reviewing past cycles:
🔹 2014: BTC found its bottom 71 days after the midterm election concluded
🔹 2018: BTC found its bottom 39 days after the midterm election concluded
🔹 2022: BTC found its bottom just 13 days after the midterm election concluded
The shortening from 71 days to 39 days, then down to 13 days, is worth noting:
1️⃣ The institutionalization of BTC continues to rise, with capital no longer passively waiting for clear landing signals; front-running trades are becoming more common.
2️⃣ The binding with macro liquidity deepens; after midterm elections, there is often a window for policy expectation adjustments and liquidity repricing.
It is clear that the timing of the bottom is getting earlier with each cycle.
So, will this pattern replicate in 2026?
There are three key observation indicators that are more important than simply applying history:
1️⃣ Are there signs of marginal improvement in macro liquidity?
2️⃣ During BTC's pullback, is open interest (OI) rising or continuously falling?
3️⃣ When the market is unanimously pessimistic, does the price refuse to make new lows?
If the price declines accompanied by a continuous drop in OI, it is likely passive deleveraging; only if the price stabilizes afterward and active buying continues should it be considered a significant reversal signal. $BTC $ETH $SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
closed at $485.80 on 10/6, with this year's high at $487.47; the latest available close is $472.20 on 10/8.The more bullish the analysts are, the more the price goes down
$BTC is currently at $81,480.
It has dropped 2.02% in 24 hours.
The reason for the drop is not within the crypto circle:
Inflation data was higher than expected.
Chip stocks took another round of selling.
Nasdaq 100 fell 2%.
The dollar rose to its highest since May 2025.
Money is withdrawing from high-volatility places, first returning to the dollar.
Crypto assets are at the front of this queue.
So even if analysts turn bullish, the price still goes down.
The 81,480 figure wasn’t dumped by anyone.
It’s the dollar getting stronger, with fewer willing to take it.
With thin buying, the same sell orders can push the price down further.
Analysts look inside the crypto circle.
Prices look at the money outside the crypto circle.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue record was known in the market before October 15. And when the same matter is treated as surprising good news on the financial report day, the timing may be a step late.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue rose 54.6% year-on-year and fell 0.6% month-on-month. This variation is interesting: strong long-term growth does not necessarily mean every month is higher than the previous month. Minor monthly changes are not enough to conclude demand for AI as a whole.
After the advance disclosure of monthly revenue,ZEC｜Can the attention turn into sustained buying pressure?
October 15, 16:37 (Beijing), OKX spot 1,108.35 USDT, down 11.35% in 24 hours, low at 1,073.76. The price is still below the 20 moving averages on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts, currently looking more like a correction after a decline.
I will watch if 1,074 can hold. Only a volume-backed recovery above 1,121 will have a chance to test the 1,142—1,156 resistance zone; if 1,074 is lost again, beware of continued downside. The rebound volume from 15:00 to 16:00 was only about 38% of the previous hour, so follow-through needs confirmation.
Fundamentally, pay attention to the NU7 test progress announced by the government on October 2: the block target was shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, which cannot be considered a suddenly realized mainnet benefit today. Tonight at 20:30, the US PPI (BLS) may also amplify volatility.
Attached is my record of closing a 15x short position on ZEC perpetual: opened at 1,133.67, closed at 1,151.10, which does not represent current holdings.
Search interest can bring attention, but trend reversal still requires sustained buying to verify.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ZEC #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high The market already knew about TSMC's revenue record before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue increased 54.6% year-on-year but decreased 0.6% month-on-month. This contrast is interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are not enough to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should move forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers pull orders forward are more informative than repeating the already public total revenue.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the demand expands in sync with actual usage, it means different things for the next few quarters. It is not yet clear which situation it is. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC does not mean expecting only good news at every step. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What really makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating existing records.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, setting a record high in earnings. The Q3 outperformance is not due to a sudden rebound in AI demand, but because AI chip orders have spread from NVIDIA to the entire advanced process segment. TSMC has become the most certain toll station in this round of the computing power race.
Basis: Q3 net profit hit a record high, gross margin around 60%, HPC accounts for nearly 60% of revenue. 2nm has started contributing, CoWoS capacity remains a bottleneck. Market reaction is mild because the outperformance was already priced in.
Details: The real focus is on Q4 guidance and 2027 capital expenditure. The stock price hasn't surged, indicating buyers are waiting for clearer expansion signals.
Watch two indicators — whether CoWoS monthly capacity can continue to ramp up, and whether 2nm yield can stay stable above 80%. If both are stable, the AI hardware narrative is not over; if one is missing, this outperformance is just a temporary peak.$SNDK SanDisk｜1372 was pierced before the market opened, but I only recognize the daily close; if it doesn't close back above, it will go down to 1157
Two days ago it was 28 points off, so I said it didn't count as hitting; today before the market opened at 1341, 1372 was already reached intraday.
However, my discipline remains unchanged: a pre-market piercing does not count as confirmation; only if the daily close fails to recover 1372 is it considered a true break.
The chart is very clear: yesterday before the market opened at 1420, it couldn't get back above 1500, and the opening continued to drop, indicating this storage wave is not a shakeout but a trend downtrend.
1372 is a key daily support; now that it has been pierced pre-market, I will not catch a falling knife here. Before a bottoming signal appears, all rebounds are first seen as loss reduction, not reversal.
🔸 Daily close recovers 1372 → counts as an oversold rebound, first resistance at 1420, strong resistance at 1500; if it can't pass 1500, the bias remains bearish
🔸 Daily close confirms losing 1372 → next target 1157
From 1341 to 1157 is still 184 points. Before the trend breaks, I won't guess the bottom; if it really turns strong, it must first recover 1372, then take 1500, otherwise it is just a downtrend continuation. Under the comprehensive CPI shock exceeding expectations at 80,900 USD—82,000 is the recovery threshold. ETF outflows have continued for two days, with intensive buying around 80,000 providing support below. Wash's speech on Friday is the most important short-term directional guide.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Yesterday's core CPI exceeded expectations, tearing apart the excuse of blaming oil prices. If PPI continues to rise, it signals to the market that inflationary pressure is transmitting to the production side, making it even harder for the Federal Reserve to remain inactive.
First, let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin. After the CPI release, Bitcoin was hit down to around 80,000, with ETF net outflows of 261 million in a single day; Fidelity alone withdrew 153 million, wiping out the previous day's inflows. However, there is divergence on-chain: large holders' positions rose to 3.03 million coins, with the fastest monthly growth since February. Institutions are withdrawing, but large holders on-chain are accumulating, shifting chips from fast money to slow money.
Next, $ETH Ethereum. ETF net outflows reached 130 million in one day, with no inflows across ten products. It is the preferred withdrawal machine for institutions retreating; when Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest. The only positive sign is that leverage has dropped to a low level; if the price holds above key support, short covering could bring a brief rebound.
Finally, $XAUT Gold. After breaking below 4,100, gold bounced back above 4,150. Futures speculative longs are exiting, while gold ETFs and central banks continue to accumulate. Central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, with 740,000 ounces added in September alone—the largest this round. Speculators are exiting, allocation players are entering; this is the biggest difference between gold and Bitcoin.
PPI reflects whether upstream inflation is spreading. Short-term trading is not recommended; reduce leverage first and avoid chasing the data week's candlesticks. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Why did TSMC's stock price drop even though it made huge profits?
Many people find it strange at first glance when they see the news:
Profits hit a record high, soaring nearly 70%, so logically the stock should have surged, but instead it fell by 3 points.
Here is a harsh truth: the stock market buys not past performance, but future expectations.
Before this earnings report was released, many investors had already guessed that TSMC would make a big profit. Optimistic buyers got in early, driving the price up.
When the official good news was announced, it was the old saying: good news priced in, meaning it was already factored in.📊 History always astonishingly similar? The "Midterm Election Curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past rounds:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutional acceleration: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is open interest increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and open interest decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price stabilization and active buying follow, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities. $ETH is crashing like a dam breaking; the ones who should really be panicking are those who "think they're bottom-fishing." Have you noticed that hype and support strength are totally different things? Last night, watching the market, my first reaction wasn’t panic but a kind of exhaustion thinking, "Why is this script repeating again?" $ETH kept falling steadily, and the group chat was full of wails. Some said they wanted to short but feared being the last ones chasing the short—this kind of dilemma I totally understand. But emotions aside, what’s really trading in the market is another matter. On the surface, $BTC is mentioned as possibly going to 80,000, and if $ETH adjusts on the weekly level, around 2130 is the first decent observation point, then below 2000. The numbers are scary, but what I want to say is: the reason these price levels keep being mentioned is precisely because many have already priced them in. The real risk isn’t at these round number levels but in how fast altcoins’ support will vanish if the weekly chart really turns bad. That phrase from $BCH, "Hold on and you’ll see the rainbow," sounds inspiring, but if you think carefully, this narrative itself is a typical signal of an emotional market—people are starting to replace position management with faith. Whether the margin can hold is more realistic than whether the direction is right. My personal preferred scenario is this: if this wave is just a weekly-level pullback, BTC should see obvious spot buying around 80,000, ETH will have capital probing between 2130 and 2000, altcoins will fall but not collapse, sentiment will shift from panic to numbness, and then a decent rebound will follow. This is the bullish path. But on the other hand,US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the major markets weakened across the board in the past 24 hours, with BTC down 3.5% and ETH down 3.1%. Funds have clearly withdrawn from mainstream coins, flocking to USDC and USDT. SOL, XRP, ZEC, CRO, STRK, and others generally fell between 3% and 7%. This is a macro-driven broad decline, not a problem with the projects themselves, so don’t rush to cut losses.
I just wiped the barrier pole at the door, my hands are all dusty, and I took a quick look at the market.
BTC current price is 81001. The short-term moving averages on TradingView have already formed a death cross, the MACD histogram is shrinking, and the RSI surged into overbought territory then pulled back. The correction pressure is real. But the CoinGlass liquidation map is even more critical: there are large long and short liquidations clustered around 81000, with significant long stop losses and dense long positions above at 81600 and 82200, while short positions below 80000 are sparse. Simply put, there’s not much to push down, but pushing up is the real trigger point.
In terms of operation, I don’t chase shorts. I will buy long in batches on pullbacks between 80500 and 80800, with a stop loss at 79800; if it breaks below, I admit the mistake. The first take-profit target is 81600, the second is 82200; reduce positions and exit when reaching the liquidation dense area. The huge long positions above are the fuel for the rally, so be patient and wait for it to ignite.
I’m on the night shift today, just made instant noodles, and will focus on this trade first.
$BTC
#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
@OKX星球 $ETH brothers, since yesterday's drop until now, where exactly is the bottom?
This morning at 2400, some said it was definitely the bottom, now at 2364 holding steady, others are calling it the bottom again. But the bottom isn't guessed; it depends on signals.
Currently, Binance's long-short ratio is at 3.1, indicating retail investors are rushing in to bottom-fish and go long, thinking a reversal is imminent. But the large accounts' long-short ratio is only 1.4; the big players aren't in such a hurry. Retail investors are desperately catching the falling knife, while the big players are just watching from the sidelines. In this situation, another drop is highly probable.
The market looks stable, but this can't be taken as a basis for a trend change. We need to wait for entry signals.
First, wait for the long-short ratio to drop. Retail longs need to be flushed out, the ratio returning near 1.5, so market sentiment isn't so crowded, then it's safe. The futures market isn't easy; most retail investors get harvested. I often watch whale movements closely before placing orders.
Second, wait for a volume-increasing bullish candle. Low volume stabilization only stops the fall, it’s not a reversal. We must see a volume-increasing bullish candle that pulls the price back above key resistance levels to confirm real capital entering.
Third, wait for the large accounts' long-short ratio to rise. When big players start adding long positions, that's the true indicator.
The clear approach is to wait; I must catch this bottom.Everyone is guessing where the bottom is, but institutions are actually not panicking at all. I dug into yesterday's ETF data and found a rather unusual situation.
First, let's talk about BTC. There was a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday, with BlackRock selling 13.34 million and Fidelity selling 18.36 million. They had just bought over 20 million the day before, but immediately sold it all off, which clearly shows institutions were just testing the waters with BTC, and once CPI exploded, they immediately pulled back.
Next, ETH had a net outflow of only 51,900. Grayscale sold a bit, BlackRock sold a bit, basically standing still. The price has been hammered down to 2315, but institutions neither buy nor run; they are all watching.
SOL is even more interesting, with a net outflow of 12,200, only Bitwise selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflows, but compared to tens of millions on previous days, today's volume is basically negligible, indicating the main selling pressure is no longer from ETFs but from longs stepping on each other in contracts.
My judgment: institutions are not panicking at all; they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually narrowing. The current drop is mainly long liquidation killing longs. The SOL long-short ratio is still at 2.68, meaning longs haven't finished running yet, and the chain of liquidations is not over.
I am currently holding no positions. Catching a falling knife in this market is a gamble. I'll wait until the liquidation data is fully out and the market stabilizes before making a move.
Key levels: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $XAU
Current price 4156.9, 24h -0.02%
Gold plunged to 4082.2 last night and has been slowly climbing back today.
48-hour script unfolded:
10-13 21:00 High 4195.7
10-15 00:00 Bottom hit 4082.2
After the nail bottoming, the low points have been rising steadily,
now back to 4156.9,
recovering 65.8% of the 113.5-point drop.
Since daytime today, 12 consecutive 1H candles
closed above MA20 (4138.05),
short-term focus is indeed in repair.
But volume tells another story:
That 1H bottom hit had a full 22.54 million U,
recent two rebound candles only 7.55 million / 9.18 million U,
shrunk to 30-40%—buyers are hesitating.
Position is also indecisive:
Up to 48h high 4195.7 is only 0.93% away
Down back to 4082.2 requires a 1.8% drop
Both sides are close, the odds here are less than 2:1 for action.
Set conditions first:
① If 1H closes with volume above 4195.7 and the pullback does not break below
→ then go long, otherwise no move
② If 1H closes below 4138.05
→ this repair round is invalid, wait again
Neither condition met, watch and wait.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with core inflation also above expectations, putting full pressure on the Federal Reserve 😮💨. The market originally hoped for a pause in policy, but now the plan has to be reconsidered. My feeling is that the trouble is not how much higher it goes, but that inflation is too sticky; just after the hike, it might not be over yet. US Treasury yields continue to climb, risk assets inevitably frown, but bad news does not mean a crash; the key is whether buyers step in.
$BTC: First watch the 80,000 support line 🛡️. If it fails to reclaim 83,000–84,000, the rebound will be difficult; once support is lost, beware of retesting lower.
$ETH: Focus on 2,500 for Ethereum 🎯. Under Bitcoin’s pressure, ETH struggles to stand alone and must first reclaim key resistance; currently it has fallen below 2,400 again, which is indeed tough.
$ZEC: Stay cautious ⚠️. Watch 1,100 for support and 1,200 for rebound strength. It is more volatile and falls harder in a weak market.
My view: Inflation data is bearish, but don’t rush to short. First confirm BTC’s key levels, then see if ETH and ZEC can hold. Direction is unclear; don’t get thrown off by a single bearish candle, nor get overexcited by a rebound.
Personal opinion, not investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Last night CPI shocked the market, but BTC went against the trend?🤔
The US September CPI gave the market another lesson: overall 3.7%, core 2.6%, both exceeding expectations, with gasoline prices as the behind-the-scenes driver. The Fed's biggest headache, core inflation, remains stubborn as a rock. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 49%, and normally, risk assets should tremble.
But the crypto market refuses to follow the script.
$BTC plunged sharply to 82,000 after the data, with a drop of only 1%-2%, and panic selling was scarce. $ETH was even more rebellious, falling then immediately bouncing back with a strong green candle, catching the bears off guard. The market logic seems to have changed its core: bad news is treated as good news, and good news actually hits the market.
The capital flow is even more interesting: the day before the CPI release, $BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $175 million; the ETH ETF ended a ten-day losing streak with a net inflow of $24.83 million, with Grayscale Mini ETH alone accounting for $16.72 million. Institutions haven't fled; instead, they quietly picked up chips amid macro panic.😏
So the question arises: will $BTC continue to test the bottom, or is it brewing a rebound? When bad news can't move the market and capital is still flowing in, the answer might already be written on the chart. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 正如昨日所说，BTC在81500附近出现止跌盘整后，在亚盘时段再次出现下杀，发起了近几周以来第三次向80000整数关口的进攻。在盘整阶段，现货合约虽均出现了部分吸收，但仍缺乏主动性买盘，酝酿下杀的情绪愈演愈烈，随后在亚盘时段同步下杀，然而80500附近仍存在极强的承接资金，随后由空头回补推动价格再次回到81500附近，市场开始围绕81000附近继续盘整。 值得注意的是，数周以来合约端存在一种现象，就是币本位资金始终保持较高的多头敞口，在推动和吸收方面均起到很大的作用，而U本位更具情绪化，杠杆的推动和出清更为突出。然而几次大幅度的下杀合约端均由币本位资金主动开仓向下发起进攻，U本位虽也有部分资金配合下杀，但整体仍是被出清的一方。 虽然价格近期呈现摧枯拉朽、势不可挡的态势向下，但背后的资金结构仍未展示出明显的空头结构，甚至当价格第三次来到80000关口，空头面临的处境要比多头更复杂。故我已将全部的空头头寸回补，因为目前的情况无法支撑我判断市场在80000关口的决定，到底是快速向下完成流动性的狩猎随后迅速拉回开启新一轮上涨；还是在低位空头再次大举开仓进攻，延续空头趋势，这些都要等待市场给出答$ETH $BTC single-day net outflow of 31.44 million, BlackRock and Fidelity concentrated selling.
Just slightly accumulated the previous day, decisively took profits and exited when CPI negative news landed, institutions only made tentative layouts with extremely strict risk control.
In contrast, $ETH only slightly outflowed 51,900, almost zero volatility.
Price dropped to a low of 2315, institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, observing the situation waiting for direction.
$SOL's trend is even more representative, small outflows for eight consecutive days, today's selling pressure is almost exhausted.
The current main force driving the dump is no longer ETF institutions, but a stampede of longs inside the market.
The core issue in the market now: long sentiment has not been cleared.
SOL long-short ratio remains as high as 2.68, a large number of long positions have not stopped losses, the chain liquidation scenario is not yet over.
The current decline is purely a long-killing emotional sell-off, not institutional escape.
I have always maintained an empty position and am watching; in chaotic times, do not speak of bottoms.
I will not lightly enter the market to speculate until contract liquidations are completely finished, selling pressure is fully exhausted, and the market stabilizes.$BTC is approaching $84K again, but I think the macro picture is more telling than the bounce.
Bitcoin gained 1.5% after Fed’s John Williams suggested no further rate hikes may be needed in 2027.
The recovery spread across markets:
- $ZEC: +7%
- $SOL and $DOGE: +2.5%
- $ETH: +2%
- Asian equities also rebounded
But Williams hasn’t ruled out another hike this year.
And with Brent crude near $106, inflation risks are still very much alive.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargingThe entire market is panicking to find a bottom, but institutions remain calm and show no signs of panic throughout.
Yesterday's ETF fund data revealed the most authentic market truth at present.
$BTC had a net outflow of 31.44 million in a single day, with BlackRock and Fidelity concentrating their sell-offs.
After a slight accumulation the previous day, institutions decisively took profits and exited once the CPI bearish news landed, only making tentative layouts with extremely strict risk control.
In contrast, $ETH only saw a slight outflow of 51,900, with almost zero volatility.
The price dropped to a low of 2315, but institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, instead observing and waiting for direction throughout.
$SOL's trend is even more representative, with small outflows for eight consecutive days and selling pressure nearly exhausted today.
The current main force behind the price dump is no longer ETF institutions but a full-scale long liquidation within the market.
The core issue in the market now: bullish sentiment has not been cleared.
The long-short ratio of SOL remains as high as 2.68, with a large number of long positions not stopped out, and the chain liquidation scenario is not yet over.
The current decline is purely a sentiment-driven long liquidation, not an institutional exit.
I have consistently maintained an empty position and am watching; in chaotic times, one does not speak of bottoms.
I will not lightly enter the market to speculate until contract liquidations are completely finished, selling pressure is fully exhausted, and the market stabilizes.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验