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Different reasons for the same drop: Breakdown of the declines in BTC, ETH, and SOL
All weakened on the same day, but their declines were completely different. A smaller drop doesn't necessarily mean stronger resistance.
BTC: Mainly emotional contagion.
The market cooled down, selling was driven by sentiment, but there was no collective large-holder exodus on-chain. Support appeared near the 400-day moving average, with signs of accumulation at low levels. This kind of drop looks more like emotional release.
ETH: Funds are withdrawing.
ETF net outflows continued, wallet balances moved outward, indicating some holders actively reduced positions, not just following the drop. Recovery is more difficult and requires new incremental funds to return.
SOL: Contract shorts applying pressure.
Perpetual contract shorts increased their positions, pushing the price down with leverage, while spot outflows were limited. Chips did not change hands on a large scale; the pressure is mainly on the derivatives side.
Therefore, the meanings of the three bearish candles differ: BTC is emotion, ETH is funds, SOL is contracts. On-chain data can distinguish who is truly selling and who is just dragged down. Simply ranking by decline size can easily mistake emotional lines for trend lines. Understanding the source reveals where caution is needed and where it is just noise.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ The biggest concern surrounding $CORE isn't just the token price—it's the sustainability of its validator ecosystem. If merchant-operated nodes continue to withdraw and block production becomes increasingly dependent on official nodes, network decentralization could face serious challenges. Three questions matter most: 🔹 Node Distribution: How many independent operators are still actively producing blocks? 🔹 Economic Incentives: Can node rewards cover operating costs and attract new participanPrice increase is not a reason to enter, and price drop is not a bottom-fishing signal either. Today, I will do only one thing: place $OP, $SUI, and $ENA on the same observation platform, and reorder them based on "pullback quality" rather than "price change magnitude." 📊 $OP 24H +6.68%, 7D +17.8%, is the only one among the three with short-term momentum trending upward. But I won’t chase this bullish candle—the real focus is its posture during pullbacks: if after a shallow retracement the price can rise again, it shows resilient buying support, and I will put it on the priority list; if it weakens quickly right after stopping the rise, it means this rally lacks follow-up funds and needs to be reassessed from scratch. Position remains unchanged; I’d rather earn less than buy in and then find I can’t withstand the volatility. $SUI 30D +42.6%, 7D -7.82%, is a typical "strong monthly, weak weekly" combination. What it lacks now is not narrative but a repair of short-term rhythm. A slight rebound doesn’t count; what I want to see is whether it can show stronger resistance to selling pressure and a crisper rebound when the next wave of selling returns. If this change doesn’t appear soon, don’t keep glossing over it with last month’s gains—the monthly increase is history, but resistance to pressure is the future. $ENA 7D -7.8%, 24H -5.83%, is still "dragging behind." Before betting on a rebound, ask yourself how long you can hold: if the only reason is "it has dropped a lot," then if it drops further, you may be forced to change your short-term stance to long-term investment. For now, act less and wait for a turnaround This round of $ETH decline was not triggered by any sudden black swan event; it essentially represents a concentrated liquidation of leveraged funds. BTC bottomed out at 80927, ETH dropped to 2405, with a total of $814 million in contracts liquidated across the network, 84.6% of which were long positions. This was not caused by sudden news shocks but by high-leverage positions collectively "repaying debts."
This rebound looks more like a brief pullback during the downtrend: BTC has almost fully recovered its losses, just 0.3% short of reclaiming its ground; ETH failed to surpass 2560; SOL is still 3% away from 112. If market risk appetite truly improves, it wouldn't be only Bitcoin attracting funds. Currently, BTC's market dominance has risen to 59.3%, indicating that funds are not actively attacking but rather flowing into Bitcoin as a safe haven.
There is also no macro-level positive support. Harmak stated that inflation is transmitting to AI infrastructure and the power sector. The market currently prices in nearly a 70% chance of a rate hike in December, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24%. Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI release is a critical watershed: if core month-over-month inflation is ≤0.2%, the market will have some breathing room; 0.3% will continue to fuel rate hike discussions; if it is ≥0.4%, rate hike expectations will heat up again. The risk of inflation data being hotter than expected far outweighs the risk of it missing expectations.
Going forward, focus on three key price levels: BTC 84360, ETH 2580, SOL 113. Only if all three break through simultaneously will it indicate risk capital spreading and a strengthening market; if only BTC strengthens alone, it remains a safe-haven market and cannot be considered a trend recovery.exceeded expectations, core 2.6% month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded, hottest since May, big bearish news
Hawkish scenario realized, October rate hike expectations ignited, clearly before data release at 20:30, the probability of no rate hike in October was 70%
BTC data before 83300, intraday surged to 84000 then got hammered back, 83000 is the watershed, if broken look at 82000, 84000 turns back into resistance.
#DailyOrbit Dogecoin is starting to tell a new story again, but the market seems reluctant to buy it this time.
On September 30, the DogeOS public testnet went live, which should be considered one of the more important recent ecological developments for DOGE. Smart contracts, lending, stablecoins, games—things Dogecoin lacked before, the developers are now preparing to gradually add.
However, after the announcement, DOGE's price did not show a significant sustained increase.
This is a bit awkward. In the past, whenever Dogecoin was associated with a new concept, the community would get excited for days. Now, even news about the launch of an application layer gets a rather muted market response.
I think the problem might lie in expectations.
Over the past few years, everyone has heard too many ecological stories—testnet launches, partnership announcements, funding news—what project hasn’t? But how many products can truly retain users and generate revenue?
At least DogeOS has some things worth looking forward to this time. Developers can use familiar EVM tools to build applications, and there are future plans to involve Dogecoin miners in validation. However, the mainnet cannot yet directly verify related proofs, and the mainnet launch date is still uncertain.
So don’t rush to treat this as a realized positive.
I now actually feel that the $DOGE community needs to go through this kind of cooling-off period. In the past, one piece of news could stir up emotions; now people are starting to ask when the product will be usable and whether anyone is using it, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
If the project team wants to take Dogecoin from Meme culture to practical application, then let the product speak for itself.On October 14, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose by 10 basis points intraday to 5.31%. With long-term rates rising, if they remain high, it could put pressure on the valuations of risk assets including BTC. Next, watch whether yields can fall back and whether BTC will simultaneously come under pressure to determine if this round of rate shocks will continue.
$BTC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Inflation is rising again, the crypto circle needs to recalculate this financial equation
Oil prices have risen, and the pressure ultimately passed on to the financial markets. The US September CPI released tonight rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous 3.4% and the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding the expected 2.5%. For funds expecting a looser monetary environment, this data is clearly unfriendly.
Looking closely at the components, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase. But housing prices also rose 0.4% month-on-month, and core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from last month. Energy is the main driver, and other price pressures have not disappeared.
The market has already started to reprice: after the data release, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and expectations for further Fed rate hikes increased. However, inflation exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean a rate hike at the next meeting; subsequent employment and price data remain key.
My view is that BTC will need to see if it can withstand this kind of financial pressure going forward. With the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to rise, any rebound will require real buying support. Especially in contracts, don't take the first candlestick after the data release as confirmation of direction; wait for the volatility to settle and see if there is support before deciding whether to act. You can miss the market, but don't let your position be driven by a single piece of news. #US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, core inflation exceeded expectations Global central banks hike rates in unison: Federal Reserve, Europe, Japan, India, none left out.
China's central bank, alone, is easing liquidity.
Today it injected 700 billion, net injection 200 billion;
On October 8, injected 1.2 trillion, net injection also only 200 billion.
In ten days, twice, net injection 400 billion.
Why is China's central bank acting opposite to the world?
Because in 2025, China's CPI is 0, PPI falls 2.6%.
Others fight inflation, China fights deflation.
Latest data as of September 2026:
CPI +0.9%;
PPI +5.0%, highest since July 2022.
Non-ferrous metals +21.4%, coal +35.3%, oil +24.5%.
Deflation is no longer a problem.
The problem is, the central bank is still easing liquidity——
Old illness just healed, medicine cannot be stopped abruptly.
China's central bank is truly a super attentive super nanny. #RateHike $BTC $BCH perpetual contract 50x short position, opened at 280.2, currently at 270, floating profit +182.01%.
The logic is simple: due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the surge in US Treasury yields (10-year exceeding 5.3%), global macro risk aversion sentiment has intensified. The previous rally in BCH, driven by the news of "CME planning to launch futures in October," has fully played out, leading to large-scale profit-taking and mean reversion. The high Beta characteristic amplified the decline, with selling pressure overwhelming the thin buy side. 50x leverage, stop loss at 280.2.
Trailing take profit pushed above the cost price to lock in gains. Beware of short covering and short squeeze before CME officially goes live. $ETH $BTC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Tonight's 20:30 CPI is like a tightly drawn string; the market is so quiet it feels a bit unreal. Are you also waiting for this number? In the afternoon when looking at the 4H chart, BTC just bounced back quickly from yesterday's drop, so fast it was hard to react in time. Those trying to catch the bottom hung below, but the price bounced like it stepped on a spring, and when looking back it was already far from the low point. This kind of movement is the most frustrating—neither chasing nor waiting feels right. The expectation is 3.6%, previous value 3.4%, and the market has actually already priced in a 0.2% increase. In other words, what really determines the direction is not "whether it rose," but "whether it’s hotter than expected." If the number is near expectations, it’s likely a sell-the-fact rhythm, surging then falling back; if it’s below expectations, the 4H-level resistance at 83,948 will be tested, and breaking through will quickly shift sentiment from hesitation to FOMO. Conversely, if it’s above expectations, the 81,808 support will be tested first, then down to the untouched zones at 79.5K, 77.3K, and 75.6K. My own feeling is that this rebound’s slope is too steep, and short-term profit-taking hasn’t been fully cleared. Crowd psychology is now split into two groups: one fears missing out, the other fears catching a falling knife. CPI is just a catalyst; what really matters is whether volume follows in the first hour after the data release. A volume breakout above 83,948 will give altcoins a breather and risk appetite will warm; a low-volume false breakout will most likely provide liquidity to the bears. The bullish path depends on inflation cooling and renewed expectations of rate cuts, with BTC leading ETH and major altcoins in recovery; the bearish risk lies inThe CPI data is out: the inflation rate rose to 3.7%, and the core CPI rose to 2.6%. Inflation is heating up along with oil prices, slightly exceeding expectations by a bit. There's actually no need to panic. This data opens the door for a rate hike in December, but the probability of a rate hike in October remains very low.
Back to the market, Bitcoin tested 84k two or three times today but still couldn't break through. At least yesterday it was correct for most to stop out at 837, avoiding the partial pullback in between.$SKHYNIX is waiting to break 1000, and Korean shareholders are very resentful about Hynix spinning off Solidigm for a US IPO listing.
On October 12, Solidigm announced the establishment of its first Vice President of Government Affairs position to pave the way for local US expansion and regulatory approval for listing.
It has fallen for 6 consecutive trading days, with a decline of 21%.
For the company's management, Solidigm's independent stock issuance and financing can raise external funds for NAND capacity expansion (to compete with Micron and Kioxia), allowing Hynix to focus its internal cash flow on high-margin HBM and advanced packaging.
But for existing SK Hynix shareholders:
1. Solidigm lost more than 7 trillion KRW in the past two years, relying entirely on Hynix to use old shareholders' money to keep it afloat. Now that AI has fully driven the demand for large-capacity hard drives, this business is finally starting to make huge profits, but the company wants to spin it off for listing, which means old shareholders bore the losses, and outsiders will share the profits.
2. Previously, if you wanted to buy Solidigm, you could only buy Hynix stock; once it independently lists on the US stock market, global large funds will directly buy Solidigm, abandoning the parent company Hynix, causing Hynix's stock price to plummet.
3. Hynix is now extremely wealthy from selling HBM memory, with cash piling up on the books, fully capable of funding the subsidiary's expansion without the need to issue new shares externally and dilute its own equity.
4. From the parent group to Hynix and then to Solidigm, this is already the fourth generation of repeated listings.exceeded expectations, core 2.6% month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded, hottest since May, big bearish news
Hawkish scenario realized, October rate hike expectations ignited, clearly before data release at 20:30, the probability of no rate hike in October was 70%
BTC data before 83300, intraday surged to 84000 then got hammered back, 83000 is the watershed, if broken look at 82000, 84000 turns back into resistance.$WAL Rises when the market falls: false breakout clears the market, second phase acceleration is coming
$WAL surged 14% in the past hour, reaching a historical high of $0.0619, with a 24-hour increase of 62% and trading volume expanding to 224 million USD. In comparison: during the same period, the overall market has been steadily declining after the CPI release, with Bitcoin almost touching the 81,300 support level. This is the strongest independent rally today.
The price movement is also interesting: last night at 7 PM it first surged to $0.0555, then pulled back to $0.0514. The early morning scan still judged it as a false breakout. However, the consolidation only lasted a few hours, and late at night it directly accelerated in the second phase. This "false breakout—pullback—true breakout" pattern is much healthier than a straight surge, indicating there is real support underneath, not just pure emotional buying.
The catalyst remains the same: on October 12, the Sui Foundation invested 30 million USD in DATA Network, with Walrus serving as the default storage layer. There is no new news; this is the second wave of fermentation of old news. The next catalyst to watch is the migration schedule of DATA Network.
To clarify the position: chasing this slope is chasing a high, not bottom fishing. The $0.055 area is the first test; if the pullback does not break below it, the second phase trend is established and we can look higher; if it quickly falls below $0.051, then today's move is a bull trap, and all previous judgments are invalidated. $WAL market follow-up two scenario simulations
1. Strong continuation: The Sui ecosystem AI sector continues to ferment, new funds keep flowing in, pushing prices higher; but such news-driven rallies generally have weak sustainability.
2. Profit-taking (higher probability): Positive news is realized, bulls take profits and exit, a large number of new shorts exert pressure, rapid pullback occurs, and with high positions, flash crash liquidation scenarios are likely.$ETH This rebound feels like a sugar-coated bomb🍬💣
2739→2405→2537, then turning down again. That bullish candle is not a bottom, it's a bull trap smokescreen. Bears dig pits, bulls fill them. Think the pullback is over? It might just be the last gasp before a drop.
Hidden risk one: Around 2445, there's a whale liquidation line of $252 million long positions. Once triggered, forced liquidations could cause a chain reaction. Meanwhile, OGs have offloaded 9,618 ETH accumulated over 9 years, pocketing $24.21 million; institutions sold 52,000 ETH via Galaxy Digital OTC. Running away this fast sends a glaring signal.
Hidden risk two: Buying momentum is fading. BitMine stopped dollar-cost averaging after nearing its 5% cap, ETFs saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, BlackRock ETHA outflowed $477 million; since September 29, cumulative outflows exceed $780 million. Money is leaving, who will step in?
My short position entered at 2689, still holding 68.69% unrealized profit at 2504. Volume is shrinking, the rebound lacks strength, the rally looks more like a window to add positions. Target 2300, will consider taking profit then. 🌊 The trend is down, don’t swim against the current trying to be a hero. Going with the flow is the way to survive. ⚠️ Not investment advice. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 ⚠️ **Don't rush to bottom-fish yet! BTC still risks dipping back to $80,000!**
Brothers, BTC and ETH continue to fall, and there are no clear rebound signals for now!
📉 **Latest Market Data**
* BTC: $81,765, down 2.15%, daily low $81,594
* ETH: $2,434, down 3.39%, daily low $2,417
**Why remain cautious? There are three main reasons:**
**1️⃣ Funding rates are still positive**
* BTC: 0.00697%
* HYPE: 0.00994%
* ETH: 0.00306%
These are funding rates per 8 hours.
This indicates that longs are still paying funding fees. According to this analysis, the market may not have seen a thorough enough liquidation of long positions yet.
**2️⃣ Open interest is rising instead of falling**
In the past 5 hours:
* ETH contract open interest rose from 1.369 billion to 1.511 billion
* BTC contract open interest rose from 2.428 billion to 2.526 billion
Prices are falling, but open interest is increasing, indicating that funds are still entering the market. Whether bottom-fishing funds have been exhausted is still uncertain.
3️⃣ Negative premium appears on Coinbase
BTC quotes on Coinbase are $81,646, lower than Binance $WAL has exploded continuously these past two days, with on-site funds completely going berserk, creating an independent counter-market rally.
Yesterday it surged 33% in a single day, and today it soared another 16% within just one hour of opening. This is no ordinary pump; it’s like a rocket shooting straight up. The driving force behind this is the $30 million positive news from the Sui Foundation. Under this huge stimulus, a large amount of existing market funds have all crowded into this asset, maximizing the effect of capital clustering.
The market data also clearly reflects the heat: the 24-hour trading volume surged to 83 million, with a positive CVD inflow of over 600,000. This is not fake volume; it’s real capital entering and holding strong. On the technical side, the RSI has already hit 87, entering a severe overbought zone. At this stage, the market rally is completely driven by buying sentiment.
In contrast, after the CPI data release, BTC and ETH remain shrouded in a downtrend gloom, with the overall market lifeless. The market lacks direction, incremental funds are absent, and on-site funds have nowhere else to go, so they concentrate their attack on this lone coin with real positive fundamentals.
In just two days, it has nearly doubled, creating a wealth effect that looks very tempting, but risks have also accumulated to a very high level. The current price is severely overbought, with a massive amount of profit-taking piled up below. Once funds start cashing out and fleeing, the correction speed will also be very rapid, making chasing the high extremely risky. Counter-market demon coins may seem to make money fast, but their fall is just as brutal. Don’t let short-term surges cloud your judgment. $ETH The bad news is known: the CPI exceeded expectations.
The consolation is that the expectation of no rate hike in October, although it dropped from 82% to 58.5%, is still higher than the probability of a rate hike.
The good news is $STRC did not fall, currently priced at $99.9. This means the true end of the panic period for microstrategy, BTC, and crypto has arrived.
A big bull market requires macro liquidity (such as the rate cuts and QE from 2020 to 2021), which is clearly not met now.
A small bull market needs some positive news (for example, in 2019 China said it would develop blockchain, Facebook planned to launch the stablecoin Libra), or at least no looming risks, which is also clearly not met now.
The conclusion is that the bear market is over, but the bull market hasn't come. It might be a "monkey market," although the traditional financial sector doesn't have this term. But crypto itself is unconventional, even quite strange...
Brother Feng's strategy remains to be an LP in US stocks, and to trade altcoins he favors in waves. If the market is not good, it's suitable for learning; he plans to seriously study grid trading because a volatile market might be more suitable for grids.
As for US stocks, now it's earnings season, so wait for the earnings reports before making further decisions."After the liquidation, who is left exposed?"
This round of decline had no black swan, only the bill. BTC once dropped to 80,927, ETH slid to 2,405, with $814 million in contracts forcibly liquidated, 84.6% of which were long positions. It wasn't a surprise from the news, but a concentrated debt repayment under high leverage.
The rebound felt like a pullback during a retreat: BTC almost erased its losses, just 0.3% short; ETH failed to reclaim 2,560; SOL was 3% away from 112. If risk appetite truly returns, it shouldn't be only BTC being chased. BTC's market dominance rose to 59.3%, indicating funds are not attacking but hiding in the "big cake" air-raid shelter.
Macro conditions didn't provide any warmth either. Hammock pointed out that inflation is seeping into AI infrastructure and electricity, with a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24%. Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI is the threshold: core month-over-month ≤0.2% would allow relief, 0.3% would keep the debate going, and ≥0.4% would restart rate hike trades. Being too hot is more troublesome than too cold.
Next, watch three prices: BTC 84,360, ETH 2,580, SOL 113. Only if all three break through simultaneously can we say risk is spreading; if only BTC runs alone, it's still a flight to safety, not a recovery.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH $SOL 📊 Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview
Netflix ($NFLX) will release its Q3 earnings on October 20, with the market focusing on revenue growth and advertising business performance.
The company expects revenue of $12.86 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 33.2%. However, subscription growth is slowing, and whether advertising can become a new growth engine will be a key point to watch.
If advertising revenue exceeds expectations, the stock price may see a valuation recovery; if advertising underperforms and user growth slows, the stock price could come under pressure.
For BTC, Netflix earnings are an indirect reference; in the short term, focus should remain on CPI data and market reactions.
Trading strategy: Do not bet in advance; wait for the earnings release to determine direction.
$NFLX $xNFLX
#USCPI3.7%CoreBeat #TSMCOct15Earnings #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Viewing asset volatility from different perspectives, under the current macro pressure, with interest rate hike expectations, high long-term bond yields,
high oil prices, and geopolitical instability, it is indeed somewhat pessimistic,
but on the other hand, if a golden pit is created around the November 3 midterm elections,
after the midterm elections, with interest rate hike expectations digested, long-term yields adapted by the market and fluctuating downward, easing between the US and Iran, and slowing oil prices, it would be a completely different scene!
The US stock market and AI fundamentals have not deteriorated, the trend remains intact, and for BTC, the bottom range has formed, a rebound breaking new highs signals the start of a trend. Once macro pressure is relieved, new vitality will burst forth#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $WCT current price 0.04133, 24h +3.90%
The gain looks decent at first glance
But breaking down the 1-hour chart, the picture changes
First, look at the volume
24h trading volume 820,000 U
At 00:00, one candle accounted for 290,000
That's 35% of the whole day
The latest candle only has 40,000 left, which is 14% of that
One candle finished, no one followed
Next, look at the position
24h high 0.04195, only 1.5% above current
96h high 0.04277, 3.5% above
Downwards, 24h low still 5.5% below
96h low 8.4% below
3.5% up vs 8.4% down
The odds are reversed
MA20 0.04017, MA60 0.04019
The two lines differ by 0.05%, sticking close
No trend, just a range
Fee rate +0.005%, annualized 5.5%
Neutral, no short squeeze pressure nor crowding
So it's not bearish
Just unnecessary to be bearish
With 820,000 U volume, a few thousand can spike the price
Trying to earn that 3.5% might get eaten by the spike first
When to watch again
① Break above 0.04277 with volume twice the average
② Pull back to 0.04017 without breaking, then rise again
No action now
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)This short position on $ZEC isn't very large, but the logic is quite clear, so I'm recording it.
Yesterday, the spike to 1285 already had a bit of a "pump and dump" vibe on the chart. There was heavy selling pressure above, and news from Grayscale showed continuous selling, with spot trading unable to keep up. I opened a short around 1247, betting on the high-level sentiment fading—no capital was following the rise, so profit-taking was inevitable.
Sure enough, several consecutive bearish candles on the 4-hour chart smashed down with increased volume, indicating active capital withdrawal. The price bottomed near 1125, which basically washed out most of the long liquidity. Now the price has bounced back to around 1160, but I think this is just an emotional recovery after the sharp drop, not a trend reversal.
I rarely use 50x leverage, but I dared this time because the resistance between 1250-1285 was very clear, making the risk-reward ratio favorable. The current position looks okay, but after a sharp drop, there will be fluctuations. The key level to watch next is support near 1150. If the rebound is weak, I will consider holding on; but if it climbs back above 1200, we need to be cautious about shorts getting trapped.There is no unilateral risk preference formed in the global macro environment. BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $175.62 million, with the price returning above $84,000, but ETH continues to decline by 3.2% due to macro pressure and ETF outflows. Funds are clearly only defending core assets, while altcoins lack a foundation for broad gains.
WAL's own trend is still upward, MACD has turned green with higher lows, but RSI has entered the overbought zone, with significant long liquidation pressure around 0.0602. The current price of 0.06046 is right at the upper edge of this pressure. During a food delivery break, I parked by the roadside and checked the liquidation chart; the tolerance for chasing longs at this position is very low, and the probability of a wick is relatively high.
Therefore, do not chase the breakout; directly trade the overbought pullback. Enter the market lightly between 0.0598 and 0.0608 to try shorting, with a stop loss at 0.0619, first take profit at 0.0588, and second take profit at 0.0576. If the hourly chart shows volume and stabilizes above 0.0619, exit the short position without reversing.
$WAL
#阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点
@OKX星球 Visa's China clearing business approved: what it obtained is a "preparatory qualification," not an official license.
· On October 13, 2026, the central bank approved Wise Information Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. to prepare a bank card clearing institution.
· The preparation must be completed within one year, then apply for opening; only after approval by the central bank and the financial regulatory authority can a license be issued.
· Before this, Visa cannot issue domestic RMB cards nor conduct RMB clearing.
· The short-term issues of "difficulty in handling foreign cards and high fees" will not change; referencing American Express's approximately 19 months and Mastercard's about 45 months, Visa's RMB card will earliest appear around 2028.
· Domestically, there are already three players: UnionPay, American Express, and Network International; if Visa obtains a license, it will become the fourth competitor, but UnionPay remains the main force.
In short: the positive direction is correct, but the timeline needs to be extended. CPI reshuffled the cards: HYPE barely dropped, BICO and BEAT each fell by 2 points
$HYPE 80.631, down only 0.3 points. The whole market dropped 3%-5%, but HYPE hardly moved. It already fell from 85 to 81 yesterday, so the funds that needed to exit have done so, leaving the rest holding on. 97% of buybacks at the 80 level are being defended, and even with CPI worse than expected, it didn’t drop, indicating real money is supporting it below.
$BICO 0.01690, down 2.54 points. The abstract sector in the account continued to lose liquidity after CPI, sliding from 0.01746 to 0.0169. The sector itself has no news or funds; it falls when the market falls and rises the least when the market rises. Once the 0.017 level is broken, there is no clear support below.
$BEAT 0.07790, down 2.48 points. The micro-cap speculative coin didn’t crash in panic after CPI because it had already been declining slowly for a long time. This small coin with a market cap of over 20 million has little sell pressure even when bad news comes because holders have long given up. The current state of this coin is that no one is playing or dumping it; it’s sideways waiting for the next sentiment trigger.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ A whale used 40x leverage to fully buy $BTC, 25x to fully buy $ETH, and 10x to fully buy $HYPE, with the combined unrealized profit of the three positions totaling about 668 million USDT, yet stubbornly refuses to close the positions. Even more striking is another set of numbers: the accumulated funding fees have burned about 90.16 million USDT. Unrealized profits are rising, and costs are also increasing; this is the most realistic situation for bulls currently. First, let's look at the position structure. $BTC position is 265 coins, entry price 81417, liquidation price 52379.42; $ETH position is 32000 coins, entry price 2571.50, liquidation price 2464.74; $HYPE position is 86000 coins, entry price 92.71, liquidation price marked as 0.00. All three are full position modes, meaning the account equity is a shared buffer; any one position approaching the liquidation line will affect the entire portfolio. The most intriguing is $ETH. The liquidation price 2464.74 is only about 4% below the entry price 2571.50, an extremely thin buffer under 25x leverage. $BTC's liquidation price is about 35.6% below the entry price, a much thicker safety margin. $HYPE's liquidation price shows as 0.00, indicating the current mark price is far above the maintenance margin requirement, or this data is simplified at the display level. The risk distribution among the three is very uneven; the real tension is on $ETH. Funding fees are the invisible opponent of this round of positions. The 90.16 million USDT consumption is not a one-time expense but a continuous drain per settlement cycle. As long as the rate remains positive, bulls must keep paying shorts. The unrealized profit of 668 million USDT looksA 356.40% return looks scary, but the principal is very small, so the actual profit is not much.
I shorted at 0.08235 with 50x leverage, and when the mark price dropped to 0.07648, the return directly hit 356.40%.
The reason I dare to short with high leverage is that $STRK previously surged over 30% in a single day due to its narrative shift to L1 and quantum resistance, and the sentiment is already severely overextended.
The big picture is that all the positive signals have been fully revealed, and the long positions chasing the highs are crowded; once the funds retreat, it will be a stampede.
However, the narrative implementation is still only in the discussion stage, and there will likely be significant volatility ahead, so be prepared for a rebound at any time. $ZEC $SOL #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 【RWA Breakthrough: US Treasuries Can Now Be "Collateralized On-Chain"】🔗
BNY Mellon × Castle Securities completed the first large-scale triparty repo: Castle bought two-year US Treasuries, BNY minted them into on-chain tokenized securities, settled within minutes, then used for overnight repo financing.💵
This is a big step. Tokenized US Treasuries have moved from "issuance and settlement" to "institutional collateral financing," no longer just on-chain showpieces; Ondo-related products have surpassed $3 billion in scale. Institutional funds entering the chain finally have a real outlet. In the long term, RWA and stablecoin settlement logic will be stronger.🏦
But don’t expect the coin price to take off immediately in the short term. BTC is still driven by macro factors: 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.7%, ETF funds are still flowing out, and CPI is about to be released. I’m currently out of position, not catching a falling knife. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
This is very time-sensitive, be sure to use stop-loss orders. Good luck.🍀#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 You need to learn more to earn cognitive money. The key is that there is a rabbit 🐰 behind it.
OKB has only 21 million tokens, so why can't it simply be compared to BNB?
Many people think: BNB has become a mainstream asset, OKB is backed by OKX and has a total supply of only 21 million tokens, isn't it even scarcer?
This logic sounds reasonable but ignores a key issue: the valuation of platform tokens is never determined by the size of the exchange, but by the value created by the platform and how much of that value truly transfers to the token.
📊 Let's look at the core differences
🔸 BNB: The demand system is already established
It is used for on-chain Gas, fee discounts, staking, Launchpool, DeFi, and more, plus it has a continuous burn mechanism. Multiple layers of demand + decreasing supply, the closed loop is already running.
🔸 OKB: The value logic is being reconstructed
After the economic model adjustment in August 2025, the total supply of OKB is fixed at 21 million tokens, becoming the Gas token for the X Layer. But note: it can no longer be used to offset trading fees, nor does it affect fee tier levels.
⚠️ The problem lies here
X Layer emphasizes low Gas fees. Low fees help attract users, but it also means—even if trading volume surges—the actual OKB burned might be very limited.
So: trading volume growth ≠ OKB demand growth. This is why the market needs to reassess OKB's valuation.
💡 Does OKB still have opportunities?
Yes, but the opportunity is not in "copying BNB's market cap," but in three variables:
① Whether X Layer can accumulate real capital scale
② Whether OKX's massive user base can become active on-chain users
③ Whether OKB can establish more practical demand beyond Gas
📌 My core judgment:
BNB's strength lies in its established demand system; OKB is betting on whether it can build one.
The difference between the two is not the number of tokens, but the ecosystem stage and value capture ability.
The scarcity of 21 million tokens cannot support a token without demand; but once the X Layer ecosystem runs smoothly, the revaluation potential is real.
Finally, a question: do you think OKB's biggest opportunity is the explosion of the X Layer ecosystem, or that OKX will launch new token empowerment mechanisms? Let's discuss in the comments. $
⚠️ This is just a personal opinionEven though all are falling, the accounts can't be mixed together
All three coins are falling, but the market is not telling the same story.
WLD is continuously declining: it dropped 9.88% yesterday and another 3.21% today, with a consistent downward direction over two days and uninterrupted selling pressure. FIL is the opposite; it rose 3.27% yesterday and fell 3.88% today, with gains and losses nearly canceling each other out, basically flat over two days, more like a rise followed by a fall. TRUMP only fell 1.35% today with a trading volume of 65 million, showing little movement—not because it is more resistant to falling, but because no one is rushing to sell.
The key is to look at the trading volume. Both WLD and FIL have trading volumes exceeding 100 million, indicating chips are changing hands and disagreements are intensifying. The one that falls the hardest is often not simply "oversold," but truly has continuous selling. TRUMP’s low volume and small drop only indicate weak participation, not safety.
So, don’t treat "falling together" as the same thing. Continuous decline and rise-then-fall have different implications; falling with high volume and falling with low volume are also different in nature. The real signal is volume: when trading volume gradually shrinks, selling pressure can be considered fully released, and this round of decline may be over. Before that, the one falling hardest is more worth watching because that’s where the real sell orders are.ZKsync has lowered the hardware threshold for generating Ethereum block proofs to a professional graphics card. My judgment: this is generally positive for ZK's technical competitiveness, but the support for the token's short-term price remains limited.
The Airbender Prime announcement released on October 13 states that the team tested continuous 7,200 mainnet blocks using an RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell, with 99% of proofs generated within 10 seconds, all under 12 seconds, including data preparation time. This is the team's test result.
A proof can be understood as an independently verifiable "computation acceptance certificate." With reduced hardware requirements, the first beneficiaries are the proof generators and institutions preparing to connect: fewer devices can undertake the same work, lowering deployment barriers. The actual total cost savings still depend on workload and deployment.
What I am optimistic about is the improvement in product competitiveness, rather than an immediate ZK buy-side surge. The announcement did not include new token fees, buybacks, or dividend arrangements, nor did it declare that Ethereum has adopted this solution. For technical progress to translate into stronger token bullishness, real adoption and evidence of value returning to ZK are still needed.
Source: ZKsync official website announcement on 10/13; the image shows the original text and test data, reviewed on 10/15. ZK spot market:
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/zk-usdt$WAL is a star Web3 project backed by a16z, which achieved a valuation of 2.25 billion based on its IP story, but failed in industry implementation, with its token price nearly dropping to zero; the project pivoted twice and ultimately chose to shut down its own public chain, taking $30 million from Sui to move into the Sui ecosystem to continue working on AI data rights confirmation. This is both a case of a primary market bubble bursting and a typical example of intense competition within the public chain sector.
DATA (Story) has been integrated into the Sui ecosystem, and its AI dataset will be hosted on Walrus. WAL is the data storage foundation of the Sui ecosystem and is the infrastructure beneficiary in this Sui AI narrative event, with the news causing a short-term surge.#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
CPI data is out, exceeding expectations, with both overall and core figures surpassing forecasts.
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%, and the previous value of 3.4%. Month-on-month it increased 0.6%, also faster than the previous 0.4%. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, above the expected 2.5%, and previous 2.4%. Core month-on-month increased 0.3%, also exceeding expectations.
Gasoline price increases are the main driver of the overall inflation rebound, but core inflation rising simultaneously indicates price pressures are not just from energy. This is the most troublesome point. The Fed fears core inflation not falling the most, as it means stronger reasons for rate hikes.
After the data release, market expectations for interest rates will be repriced. The probability of a rate hike in October was previously about 23%, now it will likely be revised upward. The dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen simultaneously, putting pressure on risk assets.
BTC is now up 0.42%, but this gain is fragile in the face of the CPI surprise. Resistance is between 83,500 and 84,500, support between 81,500 and 82,000. If the market starts pricing in a higher probability of an October rate hike, BTC may retest the lower support, and if broken, look toward 80,000.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Supply tightening first requires asking how long it will take to return
The increase in $ETH staking quantity indeed means more coins participate in network security, but there are still rules for exit. Validators can apply to exit, and fund unlocking requires going through the relevant queue, with waiting time affected by network demand. So when studying supply, I separate coins that are already staked, those applying to exit, and those that have been received. Applying to exit could mean switching service providers or adjusting positions; just looking at the queue cannot determine that all are preparing to sell. What’s more worth tracking is where the funds go after unlocking. Temporary locking can affect liquidity, but how the funds are used afterward determines how long this impact lasts.
Native staking of $SOL also involves activation and deactivation processes, with status changing according to network cycles. This makes me pay more attention to the timing of funds. If holders might need to sell at any time but put most of their funds into staking, they bear waiting costs beyond the rewards. Studying staking growth requires looking at whether rewards are attractive and how many are willing to re-engage after exit. The demand that continuously remains is more convincing than the locked amount at a certain point in time.
The total supply cap of $BTC is 21 million coins. But how much can be sold in the short-term market still depends on the choices of existing holders. The fixed total supply does not provide answers for daily buying and selling forces. I separate the study of long-term scarcity and current willingness to sell. The former explains asset characteristics, the latter affects short-term transactions. Both accounts must be considered; one cap number cannot infer the next price movement.The recent pullback in the storage trio now looks more like a shakeout phase within a weak consolidation rather than a rally chase. Do you also get that feeling: despite a significant drop, there's no decent rebound in sight? I watched these three lines all night, and my biggest impression isn't the "drop" itself, but the poor quality of the rebound. SanDisk is currently priced at 1454, stuck below the EMA55 at 1488 on the hourly chart, RSI6 is only 36, and the MACD green bars are still declining; Hynix at 1071 is lying below all moving averages, RSI6 at 31.9, K value at 23.5, compounded by the bad news of HBM4 expansion delays; Micron at 946 is also capped below EMA55 at 973, MACD just turned positive but no reversal structure is visible. All three targets are aligned directionally, this is not an individual stock issue but a synchronized cooling across the entire storage sector. The key lies in the transmission path. Storage is the most sensitive segment in semiconductors to capital expenditure and AI server expectations. With HBM4's schedule delayed, the market cuts not the current profits but the expansion imagination for next year first. Once this expectation is repriced, the Philadelphia Semiconductor sentiment will cool first, then the risk appetite on BTC and ETH will follow. So you see a rather awkward market: the main market hasn't collapsed, but altcoins and tech-heavy sectors soften first, and capital is reluctant to stay long in narratives with long durations. The bullish path is not impossible either. RSI6 is already close to oversold, and the K value has dropped near 23, exceeded expectations, core 2.6% month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded, hottest since May, big bearish news
Hawkish scenario realized, October rate hike expectations ignited, clearly before data release at 20:30, the probability of no rate hike in October was 70%
BTC data before 83300, intraday surged to 84000 then got hammered back, 83000 is the watershed, if broken look at 82000, 84000 turns back.The Nasdaq dropped so much, but Ethereum didn't fall. In the past, when the Nasdaq dropped this much, Ethereum would have dropped at least a few hundred points. Ethereum, why are you holding up so stubbornly?DOGE to rise to $3.88? This time the analyst's target price even stunned me, an old Dogecoin fan.
On October 12, Benzinga reported the latest prediction on DOGE by trader DonWedge. He believes Dogecoin's monthly chart is forming a familiar pattern where previous resistance levels, once broken, gradually turn into support, followed by a larger-scale rally.
Based on this historical trend projection, his potential target is actually $3.88.
At first glance, I thought I misread the decimal point.
Keep in mind, DOGE is currently just a bit over $0.08. If it really rises to $3.88, that means about 45 times the current price, and based on current circulation, the market cap would even surpass $600 billion.
That number sounds exciting, but thinking calmly, the difficulty is also quite exaggerated.
Another analyst, Tardigrade, mentioned that $DOGE has historically experienced cycle gains of 167x and 365x, suggesting Dogecoin might still repeat long-term upward cycles.
But I want to say, don’t just look at how much it rose before; also consider the current market environment.
Back in 2021, Dogecoin had huge attention from Elon Musk and caught the wave of the overall market speculation boom. Now, DOGE’s supply scale and capital structure have changed, so trying to replicate those past gains probably isn’t that simple. I've always wanted to vent about an issue with ZEC: everyone talks about decentralization, but when exchanges restrict deposits and withdrawals, they still panic.
Especially for privacy coins, trading platforms often have more complex requirements for deposit/withdrawal addresses, confirmation counts, and risk control than regular coins. Sometimes the chain is clearly normal, but the platform temporarily doesn't support certain address types or simply suspends related services.
That's when you realize that although you bought a decentralized asset, entering and exiting the market still depends on the centralized platform's attitude.
I think this is quite critical for Zcash.
If a newcomer buys ZEC and wants to transfer it into a wallet that supports shielded transactions, but finds out the exchange only allows withdrawals to transparent addresses, they might never experience the privacy features and get discouraged by the operational process.
Not to mention, during times of drastic market fluctuations, deposit and withdrawal restrictions can also affect fund management.
So now when I look at $ZEC, besides studying technical upgrades, I also pay attention to which address types trading platforms support and how smooth transfers between wallets are.
Don't underestimate these details; often, what determines whether a coin can truly be used are these subtle points.
As for trading, I don't want to chase during the hottest emotional moments for now. If I really want to buy spot, I'll first confirm the withdrawal channels and wallet compatibility to avoid discovering a bunch of troubles after purchase. Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$BSP large sell order cost increased. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell rose from 1.01% to 1.16%.
$WAL large buy and sell costs both increased, while small order costs remained basically unchanged. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale buy/sell rose from 0.70%/0.72% to 0.83%/0.84%.Intraday BTC Strategy Review on 10.14
Intraday $ETH strategy execution:
Note: Today it was previously stated that planB short positions have higher priority than long positions ⬇️
Long position entered near 2490, second target near 2535 reached, intraday high at 2528, excluding a 30-point margin of error.
Short position entered at 2535, fourth target at 2430 successfully reached, currently waiting for a pullback to re-enter short positions. Considering evening factors, bro closed short positions early with a 45-point margin, now a small position is being tested at the high level.
Operational factors: The previous 4-hour consolidation range has broken downward, the market is weakening in the short term, highly synchronized with BTC's movement. Currently in a weak phase after the breakdown, no rush to bottom-fish; focus on whether support holds and if the decline continues with decreasing volume; if volume increases and support is broken, there is further downside risk.
Long positions need to wait for BTC to pull back near 825, confirm the trend before entering, no rush.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Conclusion first: The 4H candle on $MUBARAK from 10-14 is the first real test after 9 days of sideways consolidation.
The data is clear. After a 25% surge on 10-05, it traded sideways around 0.07 for nine days, with volume thinning day by day. On the 14th during the day, it was pushed down to 0.0638. Starting at 20:00, a 4H candle dropped directly from 0.0641 to 0.0538, a high-to-low drop of -16%, closing at 0.0569. The volume of this single K-line accounted for 42% of the entire day’s volume.
On the same day, the broader market was de-risking: 225 assets fell while 30 rose, median down -3.45%, and BTC only dropped 1.9%. $MUBARAK fell over 20% in 24 hours, more than 10 times BTC’s decline. When risk appetite shrinks, high-beta narrative coins always get hit first. From the high of 0.0823 on the 12th, it has already dropped 35%.
At 00:00 on the 15th, it stabilized around 0.055 with noticeably lower volume, but lower volume stabilization does not equal a bottom signal.
The K-line language is actually very clear: once the sideways range breaks, watch the volume of the breakout candle. A breakout with volume means big money is exchanging chips, not just small orders sliding down. When sideways, where do you place your stop loss, at 0.065 or 0.05? $MUBARAK 🔥Don't be misled by CPI expectations! Tonight's key for BTC is not just how high the inflation numbers are!
📊 The market expects the overall CPI to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%, with a monthly gasoline price increase of over 7% being the main driver; meanwhile, the core CPI month-on-month is expected to drop to 0.2%, year-on-year around 2.5%. So tonight, don't just look at the overall CPI; the core data is the crucial clue to judge whether inflation continues to spread.
💵 Another key indicator is the US Treasury yield. Even if CPI meets expectations, if yields don't fall but rise instead, BTC may not rally smoothly; conversely, if core inflation is moderate and yields fall in sync, market risk appetite may improve.
⚠️ Federal Reserve officials remain hawkish recently, and the possibility of another rate hike this year is not completely ruled out. The probability of a rate hike in October is about 20%–23%, which does not mean policy risk is eliminated; the market will continue to assess the possibility for December.
🎯 BTC is now around 83,000, just rebounded from just above 80,000. Tonight's focus: whether 85,000 can be broken through and whether 82,000 can hold. Before confirmation, don't chase longs just because of a big bullish candle, nor impulsively short due to a sudden drop.
Brothers, are you most focused tonight on overall CPI, core CPI, or US Treasury yields? If data and price trends diverge, how would you handle it? Feel free to leave comments and discuss!
⚠️ The above is personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 HYPE vs $FIL : Smart Money tells two different stories
$HYPE is down 1.23%. Shorts hold $87.1M vs $60.5M longs. Both sides are profitable, but selling ($573K) exceeds buying ($257K).
$FIL is up 0.58%. Shorts hold $11.78M vs $10.95M longs. Shorts are down $867K, while longs are up $713K.
30m flow: $FIL saw $1.31M selling vs $369K buying.
Both face selling pressure. $HYPE risks further downside, while $FIL could lose momentum. However, underwater shorts may fuel a rebound if buying returns.📉 Liquidation Data: Long Positions Cleared, Leverage Risk Released
Before the CPI announcement, the market had already undergone a significant round of deleveraging:
· Total Network Liquidations: Approximately $140 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with $81.14 million from long positions and $58.86 million from short positions.
· Bitcoin Liquidations: When Bitcoin dropped from $84,200 to $81,382, $771 million in leveraged positions were liquidated network-wide, with longs accounting for a high 88.9% (about $685.6 million).
· Open Interest Decline: After liquidations, Bitcoin contract open interest fell to about $52.72 billion, down from $54.46 billion before liquidations, indicating a reduction in leverage levels.
📊 Directional Analysis: CPI Will Decide Fate, $81,300 Is the Key Defense Line
The core market tension currently lies between rising inflation expectations and sustained high interest rates. Huobi HTX analysts point out that the recent ISM Services Price Index rose to 74.0 (the highest since July 2022), the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectation rebounded to 4.7%, and the probability of CPI exceeding expectations is not low, making a downward breakout from the current consolidation range more likely. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Oil prices surged, and the pressure ultimately transmitted to the financial markets. The released US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous 3.4% and the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding the expected 2.5%. For funds eagerly awaiting a loosening monetary environment every day, this data is a heavy blow. $CL
Looking closely at the components, gasoline surged 9.1% month-on-month, accounting for more than half of the overall increase. But don’t think it’s just oil prices causing trouble; housing prices also rose 0.4%, and core CPI was flat month-on-month at 0.3%, the same as last month. Energy is the main driver, and other price pressures have not eased at all; inflation stickiness remains.
The market has already repriced overnight: once the data came out, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and expectations for Fed rate hikes revived. However, inflation exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean a hike at the next meeting; subsequent employment and price data remain key.
My view is that $BTC will next depend on whether it can withstand this wave of capital outflow. With the dollar and US Treasury yields continuously pushing higher, a rebound requires real buying power; relying on sentiment-driven rallies won’t work.
Contract traders especially should be careful not to take the first candlestick after the data release as confirmation of direction. Wait for the volatility to settle and for the market to show clear support before deciding whether to act. You can miss the market move, but never let your position be driven around by a single piece of news.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 【Hold your hands】BTC will definitely dip to 80,000!
$BTC 81,765, -2.15%, intraday low 81,594
$ETH 2,434, -3.39%, low 2,417
The sell-off from 20:00 to 24:00 saw $BTC's 4-hour volume at 2,566 coins, while the previous three bars combined were 2,366 coins. After the drop, the 15-minute volume steadily shrank from a peak of 284 down to 85, with no volume spikes in between. Heavy selling had volume, but the rebound lacked volume, which doesn't look like a bottom-fishing entry.
Three reasons I continue to stay short:
1️⃣ Funding rates are still positive. BTC 0.00697%, HYPE 0.00994%, $ETH 0.00306% (settled every 8 hours, annualized 7.6% / 10.9% / 3.4%). When the price truly bottoms, funding rates turn negative and longs get liquidated. Right now, longs are still paying and holding on hard.
2️⃣ Open interest is still rising. ETH perpetual OI increased from 1.369 billion to 1.511 billion in five hours, BTC rose less, from 2.428 billion to 2.526 billion. Only $HYPE has decreased for two consecutive bars. Price down, positions up; the money for catching the falling knife isn't exhausted yet.
3️⃣ US spot market is at a discount. Coinbase's BTC is quoted at 81,646, 113 dollars (-0.14%) lower than Binance. The last 6 hourly bars all showed negative premiums.