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[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
CPI at 3.7% exceeds expectations, core inflation also hits 2.6%, is BTC about to crash directly?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t be scared by the surface numbers. The most critical part of this surprise is that "core inflation is also rising," which is much more serious than just oil prices. Once the data came out, BTC was hammered straight down from 83,900 to around 81,850.
Core CPI month-on-month at 0.3% is higher than the expected 0.2%, and year-on-year at 2.6% also beats the market’s 2.5% forecast. This means inflation isn’t just about oil prices; underlying price pressures are spreading. The 2-year US Treasury yield instantly jumped 13 basis points, and the market started betting again on an October rate hike, with the probability jumping from under 22% to over 50%.
In the short term, it’s a double whammy of “bloodletting + stampede.” With rate hike expectations back, the dollar strengthens and risk assets get hammered collectively. The key support for BTC below is the 81,500 to 80,000 range; if it can’t hold, it will have to look for support around 79,000. Resistance above falls back to 83,000 to 83,500.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish in operations. The data just came out, the market is still digesting it, and the spike trading isn’t over. Wait for a pullback near 81,000 with volume and a stop in the decline before lightly trying longs, with a stop loss at 79,800 and targets around 82,700-83,500!
Remember, core inflation exceeding expectations is a hard wound; the Fed has reason to stay hawkish. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 The market generally bets on a pause in rate hikes in October, but traders known as "greater-fools" are still increasing their short $BTC bets. From yesterday to today, they have invested about $4,381: predicting the market will "fall to 65,000 by year-end" with 136,100 contracts (implied probability 22.5%, valued at $30,600); and "fall to 70,000 by year-end" with 55,800 contracts (probability 35.5%, valued at $19,800).
Even more aggressive is Hyperliquid, who still holds 26.97 BTC short positions (average price 69,962, valued at $2.25 million), currently with an unrealized loss of $365,200, struggling to hold.
Tonight's US September CPI is critical. If inflation exceeds expectations, the market will reprice tightening, which could become a short-term pressure source for BTC.
In the mid-term view, institutional selling pressure has not stopped; this position is an extreme battleground between bulls and bears. Don't blindly chase; hold your chips and wait for direction.
$ETH
$SNDK
#September CPI announced tonight, Federal Reserve rate hike divergence awaits resolution #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Inflation rises again, the crypto circle needs to recalculate this financial equation
Oil prices have risen, and the pressure ultimately passed on to the financial markets. The US September CPI released tonight rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous 3.4% and the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding the expected 2.5%. For funds expecting a looser monetary environment, this data is clearly unfriendly.
Looking closely at the components, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase. But housing prices also rose 0.4% month-on-month, and core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from last month. Energy is the main driver, and other price pressures have not disappeared.
The market has already started to reprice: after the data release, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and expectations for further Fed rate hikes increased. However, inflation exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean a rate hike at the next meeting; subsequent employment and price data remain key.
My view is that BTC will next depend on whether it can withstand this financial pressure. With the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to rise, rebounds require real buying support. Especially in contracts, don't take the first candlestick after the data release as confirmation of direction; wait for volatility to settle and see the support before deciding whether to act. You can miss the market, but don't let your position be driven by a single piece of news. @OKX星球 Why is everything dumping today?
Almost $1.3 Trillion has been wiped out from the stocks, metals, and crypto in just 2 hours.
Key reasons:
1. US CPI hits a 4-month high, while the Core CPI hits a 3-month high.
2. October rate hike odds jumped to 51.3%.
3. DXY spiked to its highest level in 18 months.
3. US 5Y bond yield hits a 19-year high.CPI really exploded.
At 8:30 PM when the data came out, BTC dropped straight from 83500 to 81676, a big 4-hour bearish candle, down nearly 2000 dollars. Now at 81863, it hasn't stopped yet.
MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all overhead, and that move just broke through the consolidation box that lasted a week.
Of the two scenarios mentioned before, the worst one happened: the core CPI also exceeded expectations. The 23% probability of a rate hike in October will probably surge back tonight.
Next to watch is the previous low at 80400. If it holds, a double bottom could trigger another bounce; if it doesn't hold, the next support is the 80,000 round number, and below that 78,000.
Don't bottom-fish tonight. The data just came out, and the sentiment hasn't fully released yet. Wait until tomorrow morning to see if 80400 holds before making a move.
Go to bed early; tomorrow morning will bring new liquidation stories again.Both tokens are down, but positioning differs. $PENGU: $7.35M longs vs $5.56M shorts. Longs are down $635K, while shorts hold +$471K. $TRUMP: $12.2M shorts vs $9.32M longs. Shorts are up $1.78M, while longs are down $1.69M. 30m flow: $PENGU: $68K buying vs $34K selling. $TRUMP: $108K buying vs $109K selling $PENGU shows stronger buying pressure, which could support a rebound. $TRUMP remains short-heavy, with no clear shift in momentum yet🚨 Brothers, the real risk in the crypto market tonight may not be in the candlesticks, but in the Federal Reserve!
I just looked at a set of interest rate expectation data, and the changes behind it are worth watching.
📉 October: Rate hike expectations suddenly rise. The probability of keeping rates unchanged is 77.3%, but the probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 22.7%. A month ago, the market barely considered a rate hike; now the wind direction has clearly changed.
⚠️ December expectations are even more aggressive. The probability of a 25 basis point hike reaches 68.7%, and a 50 basis point hike is 19.1%. According to this data, the market's bet on no rate hike in December is only 12.2%.
What does this mean?
Previously, everyone expected liquidity from rate cuts, but now concerns are growing about rates continuing to rise. Once funds shift to risk aversion, high-volatility assets like BTC and SOL will naturally find it hard to break through easily.
The most critical thing coming up is the CPI data:
🔥 If inflation is higher than expected, bets on rate hikes may continue to heat up, and the crypto market could face renewed pressure.
📈 If inflation is lower than expected, the market may readjust rate expectations, giving risk assets a chance to breathe.
My view is simple: don't rush to guess the rise or fall tonight; first watch the inflation data, then see if BTC can withstand the pressure. The real danger is not missing out, but blindly leveraging before the macro direction is clear.
Brothers, do you think this CPI will make the market see hope for rate cuts again, or further strengthen rate hike expectations?
#比特币 #美$BCH
BCH recovery is stronger than BTC, is payment use the only driver?
Today's midday spot 24-hour observation window: range 267.5—282.4 USDT, change +3.43%, trading volume about 3.7 million USDT.
The same window shows relatively large elasticity providing relative performance, but it is impossible to confirm real settlement or merchant adoption changes. Market recovery, reduced previous selling pressure, and independent demand could all cause the rise; usage alone cannot explain it.
If BTC remains stable but BCH falls below 267.5, reduce independent relay; if real settlement improves and maintains after reclaiming 282.4, then increase economic demand assessment. #Bank of America survey reveals stock-bond divergence, BlackRock increases short-term bond allocation ahead of schedule The latest Bank of America fund manager survey clearly reflects the current institutional divergence in stock and bond expectations: many fund managers still maintain overweight positions in U.S. stocks and AI tech stocks, betting on a soft landing and high computing power demand; but at the same time, a large number of respondents rank the disorderly rise in U.S. Treasury yields as the top tail risk, maintaining underweight positions in the bond market, worried that sustained high interest rates will continue to impact valuations.
BlackRock, however, offers a different allocation answer: it has raised its short-term U.S. Treasury allocation to overweight, while lowering U.S. stocks from overweight to neutral, a typical "realizing some stock gains and shifting to short-term bonds to lock in coupon income" strategy. The logic is that short-term bonds offer attractive coupons and lower duration risk, so even if the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, the drawdown is controllable; in its view, the market's pricing of further rate hikes is overly aggressive, and the risk-reward ratio of short-term bonds already surpasses that of stocks.
Translating to the crypto market, this signals a convergence in risk appetite. Leading asset managers are actively reducing equity exposure and embracing risk-free returns, and the opportunity cost of capital logic will suppress high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, etc. If more large asset managers follow suit in rebalancing, the rebound potential for risk assets will be limited; but if inflation data continues to decline and rate cut expectations return, this "stock-to-bond" approach will reverse again.
Key follow-up points: short-term U.S. Treasury yields, CPI and other inflation data, and whether the allocation views of other leading asset managers converge. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 73.7% betting on a rate hike, short position on Ethereum at 2511 finally got the chance
After the core CPI exploded to 0.3% at 8:30, the market's reaction was more honest than the data itself—no one is talking about rate cuts now, everyone is rushing to bet on rate hikes.
Latest CME FedWatch data: the probability of at least two rate hikes before the end of January 2027 has surged to 73.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.2%; the probability of a 25 basis point hike in October doubled from 21.6% before the data to 43.7%, and some are even pricing in three more hikes by the end of 2027.
This explains why Bitcoin plunged right after touching 84,000. Before the data, many were shouting "bad news is priced in, rate cuts are coming," with longs heavily positioned; but with core at 0.3% and overall at 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, the logic reversed overnight—from "when will rate cuts happen" to "how many hikes will there be," turning the previously positioned bulls into fuel for a stampede.
The market doesn't lie:
$BTC
Failed to hold 84,000, already dropped below 82,000, after breaking 82,200, next targets are 80,900 and 80,000
$ETH
Ethereum is even more decisive, broke 2,500 directly, now around 2,420
Sharing my position: my ETH short cost is 2,511, now at 2,420, 91 points profit secured
Not bragging, just saying the trend direction is always written in the data, not shouted out
In a rate hike cycle, rebounds are not buying opportunities, they are giving shorts some points. Don't rush to catch the first spike $UNI Actually, deep down I really want to keep buying the dip and going long, but my instinctive reaction to $UNI's upcoming trend is still worry! A few days ago, when it was over 8 dollars, I bought some at the bottom. There are brothers in the comment section with similar costs. Fortunately, they all strictly set stop losses, so the losses should not be large. What I want to say is that $UNI's bottoming point may still need to be watched at 6 dollars! It has dropped from 10.95 to 7.2 now, a decline of 34%. Although this is an acceptable level, the recent bearish candlestick bodies are obviously much larger than the bullish ones, indicating more sell orders, and the short-term moving averages have been suppressing the price, making it tough for the bulls! From a fundamental perspective, UNI is certainly a quality asset. Whether it's revenue or the buyback and burn model, it satisfies the market. Moreover, while other decentralized exchanges have seen significant revenue declines, UNI remains strong, which reflects its uniqueness! To sum up UNI in one sentence: it's hard to stop falling in the short term, but worth investing in the long term! $BTC $ETH saw an outflow of 773 million USD before the CPI! What the heck is going on? Are institutions done playing with you?
I checked, and this is the largest single-day outflow in the past two weeks. The CPI hasn't been released yet, but institutions are already running.
1. The US is not conducting large-scale strikes on Iran: Iranian proxies continue attacks on ships, mines, and harassment in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Shipping risk premiums persist, keeping oil prices high and inflation from falling.
2. If the US escalates strikes on Iran: Iran has the capability to retaliate by attacking Saudi oil fields, ports, and blockading straits, causing oil prices to skyrocket and inflation to explode.
Iran doesn't need large-scale conventional warfare; relying on low-cost drones, missiles, and mines can continuously pose threats. They don't need to destroy all oil tankers; just increasing insurance costs and forcing ships to detour can keep raising crude oil trade costs, supporting oil prices long-term.
The US's core constraint is domestic inflation and voter sentiment. Once oil prices soar, CPI rebounds, the Federal Reserve must maintain high interest rates, US stocks and risk assets come under pressure, recession risks rise, directly impacting the election.
Iran is also aware of its energy leverage and won't easily give up this card. As long as the US doesn't meet its demands, proxy conflicts will persist long-term.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Today's $HYPE short was taken beautifully. Opened 50x at 86.469, the high-level selling pressure was released and the short was executed directly. Now marked at 80.236, floating profit is 360.41%, the main downtrend was clean and decisive.
But the position has reached the 80.0 whole number level, a previous low support area, with volume ready to shrink at any time. HYPE, as a highly volatile small coin, with shallow order book + 50x leverage, even a slight reverse pullback (1.5% to 81.5) is enough to eat up 30%-50% of floating profits, reducing the cost-effectiveness at the tail.
$BTC $ETH
Stop loss pushed to breakeven, core profits secured. Currently closing 95%, base position ≤5% nailed to the cost line. Watch 80.0 and 78.0: a volume breakout below 78.0 means base position drifts, low volume stagnation or upward spike means full exit. Don't get carried away after making money with high leverage, risk control is key to longevity. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 BTC current price is around 65000, and the market has not given an effective signal to stop the decline. Moving averages are suppressing in order, MACD shows a weak bearish death cross without convergence, and the bearish control pattern remains unchanged. The liquidation map above shows high leverage short liquidation pressure near 84500, but the current benchmark price is too far from that area, making the probability of a short-term rebound to hunt very low. Instead, the focus is more realistically on continuing to move down to clear stop losses on long positions below.
Just handed the meal to the customer, and the debt collection calls started ringing, no time to glance at the phone. 65000 is not a bottom-buying position; shorting requires waiting for a rebound, not smashing directly. If a short-term rebound occurs between 65200 and 65800 but fails to hold above 66000, short positions can be entered, with stop loss defense set above 66200. The first take profit target is at 63800, and the second take profit target is around 62500.
If volume breaks below 64500, the bears will accelerate further, with the target moving down to 61800 accordingly. The risk-reward ratio is barely sufficient; do not hold positions stubbornly.
$BTC
#阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点
@OKX星球 I've been watching CORE for a long time, always thinking it could bounce back. Maybe I was just naive. Here are my heartfelt thoughts on the coer public chain.
1. Today's Market
I used to only have a concept of "fall 13%, need to rise 15% to break even," but now it's the first thing I check every morning when I wake up. The asymmetric path between loss and break-even only becomes clear after holding a position.
2. The Entry Point I Chose Happened to Be a Moving Average Judged as "Seller-Controlled"
In the technical review by Traders Union on October 9, they marked positions for CORE: hourly MA-20 at 0.0215, MA-50 at 0.0217, daily MA-200 at 0.0289; recent resistance at 0.0208, support at 0.0194, RSI that day was 23.79, oversold. The conclusion was straightforward—trend clearly bearish, unless it holds above 0.0208, any upward movement is just noise.
My entry price at 0.0215 almost exactly landed on that hourly MA-20. In other words, I bought on a "moving average pullback," but the market gave me a "break below the moving average." Same number, two interpretations. This realization came late, but it wouldn't have come before today.
3. How to Reinterpret the Reasons That Initially Convinced Me to Go Long
I was drawn in by the BTCFi narrative. Core's selling point is the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus: combining Bitcoin's PoW hash power, CORE's DPoS staking, and non-custodial Bitcoin staking. Officially, over about 70% of Bitcoin mining power has contributed to this chain's security model. The chain once held over 5,400 BTC and more than 160 million CORE staked, with TVL once exceeding $850 million. From an engineering narrative alone, this is not just air.
But today's market numbers tell a different story: circulating market cap about $27.66 million, 24-hour volume about $3.38 million (btc126, October 14 data; chain community data shows market cap about $19.27 million, volume about $1.67 million, differences mainly due to circulating supply calculated as 1.01 billion vs. 1.48 billion); down 99.7% from the all-time high of $6.14 on February 8, 2023; only rebounded 11.8% from the all-time low of $0.0167 on July 28, 2026; down 92.83% in the past year (chain community data as of October 14), and down between 7.48% and 14.40% in the past seven days (sources and timestamps vary).
The technical narrative is true, and the price is true; both can coexist for a long time. This is the first lesson this position has taught me.
4. What Really Woke Me Up Were Two Events This Year
The first was in early September. Core DAO validators received more CORE than protocol design intended due to a reward accounting bug. The official response was an emergency hard fork, clearly a "forward upgrade" without rolling back historical transactions, and a promise to release a technical review. The exact amount overissued, duration, and whether these coins entered circulation remain undisclosed. During those days, Coinbase suspended Core network deposits and withdrawals; Bithumb, Coinone, Bitget, and LBank also suspended deposits and withdrawals.
At that moment, I understood what liquidity really means. It's not the volume number on market software; it's whether someone is on the other side when you hit "withdraw."
The second was on May 22. Core Foundation and Maple Finance reached a comprehensive settlement over the exclusive syrupBTC agreement dispute, which had lasted eight months since November 2025, including Cayman arbitration and litigation. On the day the news broke, CORE surged nearly 26%. I later copied a judgment from AInvest's commentary into my notes: this was "a relief rally on a deeply discounted asset, not a trend ignition."
A knife hanging for eight months finally dropped; the market only allowed itself to catch a breath. After the breath, fundamentals still have to be faced. Looking back at that rebound today, I see not an opportunity but the homework I need to do next.
5. There's One More Number I Refuse to Look At
CORE's max supply is 2.1 billion, current circulation about 1.24 billion. CoinCodex and the official knowledge base recorded an actual annual inflation rate of 35.73% in September 2026, while the protocol's designed annual inflation target is 3% to 5%. Block rewards are distributed over 81 years, and 75% of the airdrop unlocks monthly over two years.
Narrative determines whether someone is willing to buy; dilution determines how many are forced to sell. This gap cannot be filled by "the team is still working."
6. Writing This, What I Feel Is
Not despair. Despair requires having believed in something. Now, I feel more like I'm doing an honest reconciliation.
This position has taught me three things I previously only read in others' posts: first, "undervaluation" does not equal "catalyst," an asset down 99% can fall another 13%; second, holding a long contract is essentially borrowing a viewpoint with a time cost; third, price is the only data that requires no one's belief, everything else is secondhand.
I no longer ask "Can CORE rise back?" but a more painful question: "Why should I know this earlier and more accurately than someone else?" If I can't answer that, the position is no longer an investment but a statement.
As for the next step, I won't give advice to others or to my past self last week. Once the 0.0194 support decides the direction, I will most likely immediately know I'm wrong—this kind of "knowing" itself is quite costly.As soon as today's CPI was released, the market broadly fell, but $OKB held up remarkably well!
September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and the core monthly rate of 0.3% also exceeded expectations. Once the data came out, BTC dropped from 83,300 to below 82,700, ETH fell below 2,500, and SOL, BNB, DOGE were all in the red. Overall, 60 fell and 35 rose; OKB was quoted at $122.8, down 0.58% in 24 hours, not making the gainers list. So the claim that it was the "only one rising" is mistaken.
But OKB did show resilience, which is worth mentioning. It only fell less than 1% intraday, while ETH fell 0.84% and SOL 0.74% in the same period. A few days ago, it dropped more than 6% in a single day, and today, despite the same negative news, it only gave back a little, indicating that selling pressure had been released earlier. It also has a structural advantage: a fixed total supply of 21 million, fully circulating with no unlocking pressure; its 90-day correlation with BTC is only 0.06, basically not moving with the broader market. The logic for platform tokens is not to rely on narratives but on exchange cash flow and token burn.
My view is, don’t rush to say it’s "super stable." OKB’s smaller drop today is more because it had already fallen deeply before and the chips are clean, not because it’s immune to macro factors. The CPI exceeding expectations reduced the probability of no rate hike in October from 80% to 50%, and the probability of a rate hike in December is still rising. No one can truly be unaffected in this environment. Praising its resilience is fine, but claiming it’s rising against the trend is an overstatement. This week, the two key earnings reports for U.S. bank stocks were released. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have continued the positive trend in bank stocks this week. Bank of America's earnings report tells us that the traditional credit and deposit system remains healthy, while Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the capital markets and high-net-worth funds are still very active. Bank of America’s earnings show strong core banking operations, good loan growth, and loan growth without deterioration in credit quality; however, capital markets business is weaker. Morgan Stanley’s earnings are even more impressive than Bank of America’s, with stock trading data exploding, up 41% year-over-year. Fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodity trading businesses are weaker, but wealth management scale is outstanding. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed. Combining the two earnings reports, we can conclude on this week’s issues that, continuing from other banks’ earnings yesterday, loan growth, net interest income, provisions, investment banking, and credit quality continue to be in a growth and expansion phase. For the AI industry chain, the capital supply environment is favorable. However, this earnings report is not good data for the Fed. As Wash previously said, the financial market has not yet tightened, and the Federal Reserve still has room to contract. Another point to note is that a common issue in Bank of America and Morgan Stanley’s earnings is that FICC is below expectations, meaning bond market trading may be more difficult than stock market trading. This implies that the real pressure in the financial market currently lies in the bond market, not the stock market. Considering the current situation, this week’s bank stock earnings reports have basically confirmed good results + ASML’s strong earnings, with only TSMC’s expectations also looking good.Tonight's CPI is actually not the main focus. The real drama is that the Federal Reserve's credibility is being treated as a joke by the market.
Hammack is hawkish, verbally calling for more hikes; meanwhile, the market has pushed the probability of "no change" in October to 77%. On one hand, they shout about rate hikes; on the other, pricing suggests no hikes—both sides are not even on the same wavelength. BTC is seeing American institutions reducing positions, while whales have increased holdings by over 80,000 coins in three weeks.
Institutions are withdrawing, long-term holders are stepping in. With CPI running hot, BTC will likely be hit first; but after the bad news is fully priced in, whales may accelerate accumulation. ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 500 million last week, with BlackRock alone pulling nearly 500 million.
But one detail is worth watching: its leverage ratio has dropped to a seven-month low, funding rates have turned negative, and shorts are paying to hold positions. If the price holds steady and doesn't break key support, short covering could actually fuel a rebound. The premise is that ETF-related funds must stop first, which hasn't been seen yet.
Gold $XAUT is currently seeing speculative longs exit the futures market. UBS says this decline essentially reflects non-commercial accounts reducing net long positions. However, gold ETF holdings remain unusually resilient, with continuous inflows; central banks have increased holdings for twenty-three consecutive months, with September's increase being the largest this cycle.
Speculators are running, allocators are stepping in. BTC's buyers are on-chain whales; gold's buyers are central banks. The current bet is on how much longer the Federal Reserve's credibility crisis can hold. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Tonight at 20:30, CPI is coming⏰
My view remains unchanged: $ETH is slightly bullish around 2500, with the core battle being that core inflation won't exceed expectations explosively🔥
Looking at the market, ETH is repeatedly tugging around 2500, forming a deep V from 2400 intraday, with solid support below💪. This is not a fake support but one earned with real chips and real money. BTC also has funds supporting it around 83,000, and short-term sentiment hasn't collapsed.
There are obvious suppressing factors: ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling about $697 million, which indeed weighs on the market🧊. But institutional portfolio adjustments seem more like short-term sentiment disturbances. Citibank raised the ETH target price to 3028 on October 1, based on macro recovery + capital inflow, so the mid-term narrative still has support📈. Coupled with TSMC's Q3 revenue hitting a new high, tech sector profit expectations have underpinned risk assets.
Both bulls and bears are waiting for the inflation data; core month-on-month 0.2% is the watershed—above 0.3% ignites rate hike expectations, below that means bad news is fully priced in. Once CPI is released, the market will reprice, and macro data is the main storyline. I currently hold 3x short positions, but as long as 2500 doesn't break, I remain slightly bullish. Don't rush, fasten your seatbelt🚀$BTC $ETH $ZEC ZEC at $1150, are you panicking?
From 1650 down to 1150, a 30% drop, everyone is cursing "privacy coins are done"—but just now, Grayscale's ZEC ETF quietly surpassed $1 billion in assets, the NU7 upgrade testnet has been activated, and the mainnet countdown is on. Is this wave a profit-taking move, or are institutions quietly accumulating?
First, look at the surface: the drop is indeed severe.
At the end of September, it surged to 1650-1680, now at 1150, a 30% retracement. ETF funds have been flowing out continuously, longs liquidated, capital rotating. You open your account, everything looks green and scary. But look at the chart—1112 hasn't been broken, 1123 held, 1150 is being contested repeatedly. The candlesticks tell you: this is a pullback and consolidation after an impulsive rally, not the establishment of a bearish trend. RSI is neutral to slightly weak but not oversold, volume is declining and expanding, rebounds are moderate, typical profit-taking, not a crash.
First thing: Grayscale is flowing out, but Winklevoss is entering.
Grayscale ZCSH has indeed seen net outflows recently, tens of millions to over a hundred million dollars. Sounds scary?
But what you didn't see—Winklevoss's team just submitted a ZEC spot ETF application with a fee rate of only 0.25%. Directly competing with Grayscale.
What does this mean?
Institutions are not quitting; they are switching tracks to compete for chips. One ETF outflow, another ETF inflow, the total pot hasn't shrunk, just changed pockets.
More painfully: Grayscale ZCSH's AUM previously quickly surpassed $1 billion. Institutional demand for privacy coins is real.
Second thing: NU7 upgrade, ZEC changed its core.
On October 4, the NU7 upgrade activated the public testnet. Block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, confirmation speed tripled. Fee mechanism optimized. Mainnet target is November 5, with a final decision node on October 20.
Don't understand? Let me translate into plain language:
Transfers are lightning fast, user experience maximized
Lower fees, small payment scenarios revived
Quantum resistance roadmap advancing, transparent pool planned for 2027
ZEC is transforming from an "old-school privacy coin" into a "usable privacy payment network." This logic is the same as ETH's Pectra upgrade—technology landing, narrative reboot.
Third thing: In the AI era, privacy has become a necessity.
Have you ever thought—
AI is getting stronger, on-chain data is becoming more transparent, every transaction of yours could be linked, analyzed, sold.
In front of AI, your wallet is more transparent than your face.
This is ZEC's underlying logic: optional shielded transactions, zk-SNARK technology, you choose transparency or privacy.
Compared to Monero's full privacy—ZEC's "optional" approach is more compliant and easier for institutions to accept. Regulatory-friendly plus privacy protection, this is the only solution in the privacy track.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Grayscale ZEC ETF surpasses $1 billion, institutional channel open
Winklevoss low-fee ETF application, competitive advantage
NU7 upgrade testnet activated, mainnet November 5
Technical support strong at 1120-1150, no effective breakdown
YTD gains still over 100%, outperforming most major coins
On the other side:
ETF recent net outflows, profit-taking at highs
Long liquidations and capital rotation
Macro is hawkish, BTC oscillating between 82k-84k
Privacy coin regulatory uncertainty remains
Repeated failure to hold 1200, highs gradually lowering
Key level 1150, only $30 above the death line at 1120.
Resistance above: 1200 → 1230-1250 → 1300 (confirmation of retracement end) → 1350+
Support below: 1120-1150 (iron bottom) → 1100 → 1050-1000 (extreme)
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Spot/mid-term:
Buy small batches near 1150, stop loss if 1100-1120 is broken effectively. First target 1200-1250, if held, look to 1300. If 1100 breaks with volume, reduce position and reassess near 1000. Don't go all in, privacy coins are volatile, regulatory black swans can come anytime.
Contract short-term:
Bullish: Light long positions at 1150-1160, stop loss 1110-1120, target 1200-1230. Risk-reward at least 1:2.
Bearish: Light short positions on rebound to 1200-1230 resistance, stop loss above 1250, target 1150/1120.
Key nodes:
October 20 NU7 mainnet decision
Early November upgrade window
CPI/FOMC macro data
ETF fund flows
Risk iron rules:
Single trade risk no more than 2-3% of total capital
Leverage within 3-5x
Watch BTC closely, ZEC still correlated
Break and hold above 1300 to confirm retracement end
ZEC now is like Tesla in 2020—
Everyone thought "electric cars are toys," what happened?
It rose 20x from post-split lows.
Privacy coins are still in the "toy" stage.
But the stronger AI gets, the more valuable privacy becomes.
When everyone thinks privacy doesn't matter, every transaction of yours is exposed.
Holding 1150 is the starting point for the next wave.
Breaking 1100 is the final shakeout.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The worst feared event has happened: Core CPI moved
Overall CPI is 3.7%, roughly as expected, everyone was prepared for this, oil is expensive after all
The killer is the core CPI: last month was 2.4%, expected 2.5%, but the result came out at 2.6%, even higher than expected
Core CPI excludes oil and food inflation. When it rises, it means the high oil prices are no longer just a gas station issue. This time, the biggest increases were in airfares, used cars, medical care, and clothing.
Airfares illustrate the problem best. Planes burn oil, and after months of expensive oil, the cost can no longer be suppressed and has been passed on to ticket prices. This is what we have been worried about: oil costs starting to seep into other goods.
The market reaction was very direct.
The probability of a Fed rate hike at the end of the month was only 22% yesterday, but after the data release, it jumped directly to 44%, doubling.
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged back to 5.3%. The dollar strengthened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US stock futures all fell.
Bitcoin initially surged to 83,800 after the data release, then dropped steadily to 81,000. It still hasn't broken through 84,000.
The rate hike story is not over. Previously, most thought a hike at the end of the month was unlikely; now it's about fifty-fifty. Money will only tighten further, and the higher US Treasury yields go, the fewer people are willing to take risks.
The Fed meets on October 28. If they do hike consecutively, Bitcoin will have to look for lower levels. November still has October's CPI data; if core CPI continues to rise, this won't be a one-month issue.
In the short term, Bitcoin faces resistance at 84,000 above, and support at 80,500 below to watch.Core CPI year-on-year rose to 2.6%, hitting a nearly three-month high, showing inflation stickiness again. The previously expected easing pace in the market now faces a major test. Can BTC withstand this wave of macro shocks tonight?
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is a key indicator the Federal Reserve watches for underlying inflation. This rise in the reading means prices are not falling as expected, cooling expectations for rate cuts, and driving upward momentum for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
Key points to watch next: the difference between this 2.6% and market estimates, and the subsequent reaction of U.S. Treasuries after the data release. If it is significantly higher than expected, short-term selling pressure on BTC will likely increase; if the risk has already been priced in, strong spot buying support could lead to a rebound after the negative news is fully absorbed. Pay close attention to the secondary capital battles after the U.S. stock market opens at 21:30.
Core CPI hitting a three-month high means the market needs to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 The market is falling, but there are 3 coins $OP, $BAT, $PONS that are rising against the trend:
1. OP has the strongest fundamentals. It rose 64% in 30 days, while BTC only rose 9% in the same period. The upgrade allocates 50% of revenue to OP buybacks; Gwangju Bank in South Korea also partnered with Toss to run stablecoin QR payments using OP Stack.
But buybacks only start monthly in 2027, so what’s being traded now is expectation; 230 million circulating supply vs. 429 million total supply, with more unlocking ahead.
2. BAT is being bought by shorts covering. It rose 95% in a week, price is up, but funding rates have been negative all along. This is a short squeeze, not spot buying.
The narrative is stuck on the roadmap: x402, BravePay, Rewards Card are still on the waiting list. The revival of this old coin depends not on a quick pump but on whether the narrative can be fulfilled.
3. PONS is an insider’s game, my advice is to avoid it. It has dropped 71% from its ATH, and market cap has fallen below 200 million for the first time.
Buybacks and burns rely entirely on fees for funding; on-chain fees have dropped from a peak of $11.42 million to $595,000, cutting buyback power by 80%, now only 32% burn and exchange listings are propping it up.
OP has real catalysts, but you’re buying 2027 expectations; no matter how much BAT and PONS rise, they are not bottoms you can hold.$BTC hit 81700.
Current price is about 81706, dropping sharply about 0.45% from around 82078 in the last 15 minutes, touching a daily low of 81700. Inflation is a bit hot, interest rate hike expectations are back, coinciding with a sell-off.
View: Still bearish on the 4-hour chart, range 80961–84348. If it can't reclaim 82280, first hold 81700; if lost, watch the previous low at 80961; only by reclaiming and stabilizing above 82280 / 83100 will the bearish structure loosen. Don't rush to bottom-fish.如果今晚CPI是那根火柴，三大币谁会先被点着？ 你也在等那个方向选择吗？ 看盘看到现在，我最大的感受不是兴奋，是一种被压住的安静。BTC贴着83K到84K来回磨，ETH守着2,500不肯松手，SOL卡在110附近抬头看120。三条线都绷得很紧，像暴风雨前那种闷。 这次有意思的地方在于，ETF流出终于缓下来了，鲸鱼却在ETH连续九天失血的时候默默吸了166K枚。这个细节比价格本身更值得盯。散户情绪还在叙事疲劳里打转，大资金已经在用真金白银投票。这种背离通常不会安静太久。 跨市场联动才是这局的真正主角。BTC是总闸，84K是那个开关。一旦带量站上去，ETH和SOL会被动补涨，因为空头回补和风险偏好会同时被点燃。反过来，82K失守就是把整块板子翻红，山寨会跌得比谁都快，因为它们的买盘本来就薄。 偏多的路径其实不复杂：CPI不炸，BTC破84K，ETH跟涨去摸2,600上方，SOL才有底气冲120。这条链子一环扣一环，缺一个都走不远。 但风险也藏得很深。市场可能已经把温和CPI提前计价了，真出来利好反而变成出货窗口。ETH那166K的鲸鱼筹码如果只是对冲而非看涨，2,500一破，信仰会碎得很快CPI landed, core year-on-year at 2.6%, slightly higher than market consensus. The real issue is the core, not the overall. The overall figure is supported by energy; gasoline saw a nearly double-digit monthly increase, which has already been traded. The Federal Reserve focuses on the core; once the core exceeds expectations, the December rate hike bet is pushed to about 90%.
For Bitcoin, 82,000 was originally the first support level; if it falls below but recovers, that's still acceptable. It actually didn't recover, now at 81,800, the short-term has already been lost, and this judgment of mine was wrong.
Crude oil at 95, Brent at 106, and US Treasury yields continue to rise after the data. Combined, this means higher funding costs and continued pressure on risk assets.
Market sentiment flips quickly; last night it was trading rate cuts, tonight the screen is full of rate hikes.
Below, first watch the 80,000 integer level. Integer levels are often used to sweep liquidity; a real drop might not be bad and could offer a counter-trend opportunity. If 80,000 is also lost, then treat it as a lower range. Don't chase short positions at this level; it's easy to get stopped out by a rebound.
$ETH $SOL $BTC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Bro, I saw an interesting comparison data.
Solana is now processing over 14 billion transactions daily, DeFi locked value has returned to $6.7 billion, and stablecoin market cap has surpassed $15 billion. But on the other hand, on-chain fee revenue for the first half of the year dropped 87% year-over-year.
Sounds contradictory, right? I was confused at first too.
Then I figured it out—the drop in fee revenue is because previously fees were contributed by meme coin hype, and that thing cooled off, so fees naturally dropped. But the "real stuff" like stablecoins and tokenized stocks are rising, and much of their value isn't reflected in fees.
To put it simply: your neighborhood used to make money by charging stall fees for street vendors, but as street vendors decreased, stall fees dropped. However, a mall opened nearby, which doesn't charge stall fees, but daily foot traffic is even higher than during the street vendor days, and people come there to buy real stuff.
Street vendors bring bustle; malls bring longevity.
The Alpenglow upgrade will launch on mainnet on October 21, with final confirmation latency down to 150 milliseconds. Once this is live, the capacity it can handle will be on a completely different scale from now.
$SOL is currently undergoing a transformation. The old is retreating, the new is growing. Don’t be scared by the fee numbers; look at what’s growing at the base layer. Lost $12 million in 7 days, account left with only $150,000, Maji is back to square one
A month and a half ago, his account was $150,000.
Then: 150,000 → 12,000,000 → 800,000 → 10,000,000 → 1,000,000 → 560,000 → 150,000.
A big circle, back to the starting point.
And in this month and a half, he paid $1.36 million in funding fees alone.
But now it’s even more dangerous than "back to square one"
· 2,250 $ETH, 25X full position
· Entry price $2,515.81
· Liquidation price $2,401.35
· Floating loss of $218,100
ETH current price $2,421, only 0.8% away from liquidation price.
Last time: 7,075 ETH, worth $17.77 million.
Now: 2,250 ETH, worth $5.44 million.
Position cut by 68%, liquidation price moved down from $2,471.96 to $2,401.35.
What does this mean: he actively widened the liquidation line; but it also indicates another thing, he might be out of money.
Maji is back to square one, do you think he can bounce back this time? CPI exceeds expectations, BTC fiercely defends the 80,000 mark: How much longer can ETH and SOL hold?
The uncertainty of the international situation and energy prices combined with the rebound in inflation is testing the market's expectations for Federal Reserve easing. The most dangerous thing now is not the decline itself, but the possibility that funds may continue to reduce risk exposure.
According to my market snapshot tonight:
• $BTC: $81,803, key focus on the 80,000 mark; only if it retakes 83,000 will there be short-term signs of strengthening.
• $ETH: $2,420, watch if the 2,350–2,400 range can hold; reclaiming 2,500 would be considered an initial recovery.
• $SOL: $103.64, watch the 100–102 range; only retaking 107 can ease the weakness.
My view: cautiously bearish in the short term, no rush to bottom-fish.
BTC's relative resilience does not mean the market is safe; ETH and SOL's larger declines do not necessarily mean they will continue to fall. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to strengthen, I will prioritize guarding against support breakdowns; if all three coins hold key ranges and rebound simultaneously, then consider whether the trend improves.
I do not guess the bottom, only watch if the market can reclaim lost ground.
If BTC holds $80,000 but ETH and SOL continue to weaken, would you choose to bottom-fish or keep watching?
Note: Prices are taken at the time of the screenshot; support and resistance levels are personal observation ranges and do not constitute investment advice.Last week, they were stuck with 280 million, and this week they spent another 235 million to buy
No mistake, it's still Strive. From October 5-9 last week, they spent 280 million USD to buy 3,311 BTC at an average price of 84,500, only to be stuck immediately. This week, on October 12-13, they spent another 235 million USD to buy 2,822 BTC at an average price of about 83,266. Now the total holding is 35,595 BTC, ranking fourth among listed companies.
The two purchases combined amount to 510 million USD and 6,133 BTC. BTC is currently around 81,800 USD, both buys were underwater. According to CEO Matt Cole, the goal is to become the second largest BTC holder among global listed companies by the end of the year.
Institutions buy more as prices fall, retail investors panic more as prices fall — the butt decides the brain, position size determines mentality. What about you, would you dare to buy more as prices drop in such a market?
Risk warning: Macro volatility is intense, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTCZEC dropped on high volume, and in the next hour it fell below the previous hour's low again.
As of 22:49 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $1153.77. The 24-hour high is $1285.78, the low is $1145.98, with a volatility of about 12.2%. The full hour trading volume at 21:00 was about $8.63 million, three times the average of about $2.85 million over the previous 28 full hours. At 22:00, before the close, the volume was already about $8.15 million.
My judgment is that selling pressure remains. The closing price at 21:00 was $1206.6, and the lowest at 22:00 touched $1145.98. The increased volume indicates intense turnover, so it cannot be concluded that the downside has been supported.
Seeing high volume and rushing to guess the bottom at this time can easily mistake turnover for support. I am more focused on whether it can retake and hold $1205.05, which is the low at 21:00. If it continues to break below $1145.98, the current judgment will be reinforced; if it stands back above $1205.05 and holds, the judgment of continued selling pressure should be adjusted.
$ZEC $BTC hedge short positions have taken profit
As mentioned earlier, the main force might choose to use sideways movement instead of a drop, with wide fluctuations to achieve chip recovery, so take profit on short positions at low levels, then see if you can hedge short positions again above the range. However, I think going long at low levels might be safer. But for BTC, I might not consider hedging anymore, because if the main force is accumulating strength, it would be disastrous, since I see large orders where the main force is clearly deliberately suppressing the price, large orders capping the price, and once the orders are withdrawn, it will surge.
As mentioned earlier, altcoins really dropped, so let's take advantage and lower the holding cost. So keep holding $UNI short positions; if it bounces very high, I will add to hedge or reduce spot holdings.
Build positions on dips in October, at least 90% of the position remains, two weeks left, come on BTC, come on everyone!James Wayne: Completely Silent!
The king of high-leverage volatility accounts that went to zero and emptied positions, James Wayne, who once swept through Hyperliquid with high leverage, heavy positions, and quick in-and-out trades, now has a completely zeroed on-chain account with no holdings, no positions, and an account value of 0.
Current status
Public positions: None (fully exited)
Account value: 0 U
Last on-chain activity: Stuck on March 30, only a small BTC short test order seen, no major moves since then
Market signals
This gambler-type trader who repeatedly created single trades with tens of millions in profit and loss is now completely empty and watching.
Two interpretations: one is that he believes there is currently a lack of highly certain one-sided trends and prefers to stay empty rather than force trades; the other is that he may have started anew with an anonymous small account, as he historically has a habit of changing accounts. For retail investors, even the most gambling-prone Whale stepping back often signals the market entering a phase of disorderly oscillation with very low win rates, and blindly chasing highs and lows carries sharply increased risks. $BTC $ETH
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 70 minutes after the draw, the bulls were wiped out 💥
20:30, the draw. Core 2.6% exceeded expectations, leaning hawkish.
20:31, I was watching the market. BTC started a slow decline from 82797, ETH 2500 was on the brink. I thought: the bulls bottom-fishing tonight are going to have a bad time.
21:58, the first strike came. In a single minute, long positions liquidated 9.4 million, 155 orders. I counted three times, no mistake.
22:05, the second strike. 1.76 million BTC longs and 1.25 million ETH longs were liquidated simultaneously. Prices settled at 82125 and 2438.
22:15 review: 62.43 million liquidated network-wide in 1 hour, 90% were longs dying; 240 million in 24 hours, 74,596 people liquidated.
Before the draw, longs and shorts fought each other; after the draw, a one-sided slaughter of longs. The lurking bulls bet on "all bad news priced in," but the bad news wasn’t fully out, stop-loss and liquidation orders trampled together.
Fee rate split: BTC still positive, bulls not giving up; ETH turned negative, shorts took over. ETH down -2.99% today, ETF outflows for 10 consecutive days dragging it down.
BERA +7.3% to 0.2365, but fee rate -0.0109%, shorts adding positions; A +4.59% to 0.1045. The rise of these altcoins is borrowed strength.
My judgment: the long liquidation is not over yet. BTC 82000 is the critical point, break it and look at 81000. ETH 2400 broken, next is 2300. No bottom-fishing tonight, let the bullets fly a little longer. Who is sending money to Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet?
Just took a look at Satoshi's address, current holdings:
1,096,000 $BTC, valued at $83,753 each, worth $91.8 billion, accounting for 5.22% of the entire network.
His genesis address: Over these 15 years, 66,911 transactions, cumulatively received 57.65 BTC. On average, about $72 per transaction.
The largest single transaction was 26.9 BTC at the beginning of 2024—accounting for more than 40% of the total received in one go.
CB's product lead Conor Grogan said at the time: "Either Satoshi woke up and bought 27 bitcoins to deposit into the wallet, or someone burned $1 million."
Why are people still sending money to Satoshi every day now?
As a tribute, to make an on-chain mark, or simply to be "someone who has sent money to Satoshi."
67,000 transactions—do you think this is truly a tribute, or collective self-indulgence? $BTC $BTC $ETH $SOL Liquidation Heatmap + Market Resonance, Market Sentiment Analysis
The total liquidation amount in 24 hours is 295 million, with 81.7% being long position liquidations, representing a typical macro-driven concentrated long liquidation.
The heatmap clearly shows: BTC and ETH have the highest liquidation amounts, with ETH long liquidations accounting for 86.9%, even higher than BTC's 79.4%. ETH leveraged longs are the hardest hit, perfectly matching the market trend—ETH's decline is deeper, and high-leverage longs are being liquidated en masse.
Combining BTC and ETH 30-minute candlesticks, there is a large-volume bearish candle, and together with this liquidation data, it shows this round of decline is not due to shorts actively dumping, but triggered by CPI inflation exceeding expectations + the Fed's hawkish signals, tightening macro expectations, causing leveraged longs to collectively stop loss in a stampede.
A large number of bottom-fishing longs and high-position ambush longs are forcibly liquidated, directly extinguishing market bottom-fishing enthusiasm. Current market sentiment:
1. Leveraged longs' confidence is severely shaken; no one dares to casually leverage to bottom-fish, short-term leveraged funds choose to exit and observe;
2. BTC is relatively resistant to decline, ETH is more elastic, with high-leverage positions concentrated in ETH, making ETH the hardest hit liquidation area this round;
3. Short liquidations are very low, indicating shorts have not massively taken profits, shorts still hold short-term advantage.
Current market mindset: after a wave of long liquidation, short-term floating profit longs are basically cleared, but extreme panic has not yet arrived. Bottom-fishing funds will become extremely cautious, reluctant to chase rebounds, and most choose to watch from the sidelines Personally, I think the problem isn't how high the numbers are, but that inflation just won't come down. Just after a rate hike, more action might be needed. US Treasury yields are already rising, so risk assets definitely feel uncomfortable. But don't assume a crash just because of bad news; the key is how the funds respond.
$BTC first needs to hold 80,000. If Bitcoin can't reclaim the 83,000 to 84,000 range above, the rebound won't go smoothly; if support is lost, watch out for a pullback.$SNDK has risen more than fivefold this year, yet its price-to-earnings ratio is only nineteen.
This combination is rare. Stocks that have increased fivefold within a year usually have valuations pushed to dozens or even hundreds of times earnings. Nineteen times is basically the level of traditional manufacturing, indicating the market is not pricing it as a growth stock.
The reason lies in the sustainability of profits. The current earnings are judged by the market to be a temporary result of NAND price increases—once the price cycle ends and supply catches up, profits will decline. Valuing it like a cyclical stock means assigning a low multiple to peak profits, naturally capping the price.
Institutions don’t see it that way. The average target price from more than twenty analysts still implies over 40% upside, with twenty-one recommending buy and one recommending sell.
Both sides are betting on the same question: whether this round of memory shortage can extend beyond 2027. The answer to this question determines whether to use growth stock multiples or cyclical stock multiples, with a difference of more than one multiple in valuation.
In terms of price, it has dropped nearly 15% over five trading days, with a retracement of nearly 40% from the June high, showing a sharp short-term decline. The earnings report on October 29 is the first verifiable milestone. One CPI report, and BTC immediately takes a hit. Could worse still be ahead?
If Trump takes military action against Iran after the midterm elections, and the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continue their conflict, won't oil prices skyrocket?
Historically, in midterm election years, BTC rarely escapes a major drop. Could this time be an exception? Whales are accumulating, ETFs and BlackRock occasionally buying, but the macro environment is genuinely unfavorable for BTC.
The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields are approaching 5.5%, and non-yielding assets are being repriced. The US stock market index is propped up by giants like Microsoft, Apple, and META; beneath this overvaluation, many individual stocks have already collapsed.
A rate hike in December is almost certain. If the US stock market also stalls and suffers a collective sharp decline, the risk will transmit to BTC, which will struggle to remain unscathed—when the whole nest is disturbed, how can any egg remain intact?
Therefore, I am somewhat pessimistic before the rate hike. After the midterm elections and the rate hike are settled, with the macro outlook clearer and negative factors exhausted, BTC may truly improve.
Before the December rate hike, the Bitcoin bull market is very likely to return. Do you think this is a good thing or a bad thing?
(This is only a refined copy and does not constitute investment advice.)#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 In the past 24 hours, 79,190 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 281 million USD.
On average, 55 people per minute.
1 hour: Long positions 75.37 million, short positions 6.19 million — longs account for 92%.
24 hours: Long positions liquidated 228 million, short positions liquidated 52.7 million — longs account for 81.2% of the liquidations.
The worst hit was $ETH, liquidated for 7.0268 million USD, trigger price $2,433.32
The main reason is the strong September CPI at 3.7% year-on-year (expected 3.6%) → exceeding expectations → increased probability of rate hikes
The same data caused both gold and Bitcoin to fall.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 In the previous post, I said to wait until the first wave of the spike is over before taking action. Looking at the market now, the spike might still be halfway up the mountain.
CPI at 3.7% shattered the rate cut dream. The interest rate market is even pricing in another hike within the year. For crypto assets that rely on liquidity, prolonged high interest rates are like a sword hanging overhead.
The scariest data isn't the CPI itself, but the open interest and long-short ratio. Before the data, open interest in BTC and ETH was already declining; big money has exited early. Yet the long-short ratio hasn't collapsed; instead, it’s more extreme: SOL at 2.68, ETH at 1.76, BTC at 1.42. Bulls are all crowded on the same boat, and funding rates have turned negative. If the market keeps dropping, clustered assets like SOL will trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
There’s no capital support from ETFs either; funds continue to flow out, and institutions aren’t stepping in.
I absolutely won’t bottom-fish now or catch a falling knife on the left side. Key levels to watch: if BTC can’t hold 82,000, look for 78,000-80,000; ETH at 2,350; SOL will fall even harder than BTC and ETH.
Wait for the first wave of panic selling to finish, liquidation data to come out, and the market to stabilize with lower volume before considering light trial positions. Don’t go heavy or hold through losses tonight; staying alive is more important than anything.
Are you getting liquidated or sitting on the sidelines watching? Check in in the comments and share the key levels you’re watching.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ US CPI data all exceeded market expectations. This will significantly increase the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, and higher rate expectations will push up US Treasury yields. The US dollar will also strengthen, which is negative for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Market funds have an opportunity cost; since US Treasury yields are rising further, buying US Treasuries becomes more attractive, and funds flowing into Bitcoin will decrease. Many people imagine Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, but my experience tells me Bitcoin is more like a risk asset and will be pressured along with US stocks and gold.
Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to tightening liquidity and rising real interest rates. Currently, Bitcoin has slightly dropped by over $1,000, which can be seen as a small negative reaction to the CPI data. Going forward, we will watch the Fed officials and the results of the FOMC meeting. Actually, Bitcoin has risen too much in the past two months; the macro headwinds mainly act as a catalyst for the decline, but the core reason is that after such a big rise, a fall is inevitable.This CPI is worse than expected
Originally, inflation was expected to be lower than anticipated, but the September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI also rebounded to 2.6%, both exceeding market expectations.
What’s more troublesome is that besides the rise in energy prices, core inflation has not shown a significant cooling.
After the data release, $BTC and gold both fell, while the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened.
In the short term, I am no longer in a hurry to judge a market rebound, but I also do not intend to chase shorts.
For $BTC, first watch if the $82,000 level can hold, and for gold, watch around $4,100. If these two levels cannot hold, further adjustments are likely.#September CPI Arrives: How Will Crude Oil and U.S. Treasuries Perform?
September CPI Review: Inflation Resilience Exceeds Expectations, Market Returns to Risk-Off Mode
The September CPI data failed to continue the cooling trend, with both overall and core components surpassing expectations. The unadjusted annual rate rose to 3.7%, the core annual rate rebounded to 2.6%, while the core monthly rate remained just above the critical 0.3% threshold. This combination indicates that rising energy prices are gradually transmitting to core consumer sectors, with inflation stickiness stronger than previously estimated by the market.
After the data release, the interest rate market quickly repriced, year-end rate hike expectations intensified, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and risk assets came under pressure simultaneously, causing rapid sell-offs in the Nasdaq and crypto markets. The initial wave of selling was mainly driven by quantitative strategies, with a clear impact on market sentiment.
In terms of strategy, it is recommended to focus on the strength of the U.S. stock market's follow-through after the open rather than rushing to judge the direction. Until the key daily support is confirmed effective, bottom-fishing should be approached cautiously to avoid passive buying amid volatility. In the recent period, controlling position size and preserving principal is more important than chasing rebounds. Whether Bitcoin can hold its support depends on whether U.S. Treasury yields stabilize in the latter half of tonight — this is the real decisive factor.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $SOXL
Market Bias: [Extremely Bearish in the Short Term, Testing 115–117 Support Zone]🔻
📊 Market Data and Structure
• Gap Down Breakdown: Previous close at 127.57, tonight's US session opened sharply lower at 118.97, then retraced to 120.89 before facing resistance and plunging unilaterally, hitting an intraday low of 117.00 (a drop of over 7.8% on the day).
• Resistance Fully Shifted Down: The 120 whole number level, previously a psychological support, has officially become a strong intraday resistance zone, accelerating the bearish alignment.
🌐 Derivatives and Overseas Perspectives
• AI Financing Bottleneck Bearish: Reddit (r/soxl) and Wall Street focus have shifted to Broadcom (AVGO) and Intel executives' warnings — the biggest obstacle to AI expansion is moving from "chip supply" to "massive capital financing capability and return rate doubts."
• External Inflation and Competition Double Hit: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) high-density DRAM progress pressures Micron and SK Hynix, combined with crude oil rising above $106 sparking inflation rebound concerns, leading institutional funds to accelerate withdrawal from triple-leveraged positions.
🎯 Key Trading Levels
• Strong Intraday Resistance: 120.50 – 122.00 (gap lower edge resistance)
• Support Below: 115.00 – 117.00 range
• Strategy: Avoid blindly catching falling knives before reclaiming 121 after the large gap down bearish candle; move stop profits on short positions to protect gains; spot buyers on the left side should wait for panic selling to shrink and bottom formation before entering in batches. $SOXL $ETH In 2014, 71 days after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin hit bottom.
In 2018, 39 days after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin hit bottom.
In 2022, 13 days after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin hit bottom.
In 2026, the US midterm elections are just 3 weeks away. This pattern shows that the time we hit bottom is getting earlier and earlier.
71 - 39 = 32 days faster. 39 - 13 = 26 days faster.
So maybe, just maybe, $BTC will hit bottom before the midterm elections. We don't have to remove risk after the elections, but can directly continue the upward trend. $BTC $OKB #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
Strive spent $280 million to buy 3,311 bitcoins — of which $208 million came from exercised warrants, with the last batch of warrants expiring yesterday
According to 8-K: purchase window 10/5–10/9, average price about $84,500.
▪️ Holdings increased from 29,462 on 10/2 to 32,773 on 10/9, less than 20,000 three months ago
▪️ Approximately $208 million worth of stock warrants were exercised during the same period, accounting for three-quarters of this week's coin purchases
▪️ About 15.3 million warrants remain, expiring at 5 PM EST on 10/13
▪️ On 10/12, it included "SATA issuance not less than $100" in the amended certificate filed in Nevada
The disagreement is not about how much it bought, but how much of the $280 million came from warrants.
Warrants are the cheapest fuel for companies like this: holders buy new shares at an agreed price, the company uses the cash to buy coins, with no interest or principal repayment required. This well bottoms out on 10/13.
Next up are preferred shares: SATA alone contributed 61.5% of the financing amount (as of 10/6), and the company has filed to issue a second one with a fixed annual interest of 15%. The same machine, but with more expensive fuel.
Watch three things: ① How many of the last batch of warrants are exercised; ② Whether next week's purchase volume will drop; 💰 Money Printer Daily · Day 2
Which crypto business makes the most money?
* $PUMP — $5.83M cost, $2.17M revenue, 37% retention.
* Papertrade — $3.76M cost, $3.76M revenue, 100% retention.
* Polymarket — $3.53M cost, $540K revenue, 15% retention.
$PUMP remains #1, while Papertrade's costs dropped 36% in one day. $UNI also fell out of yesterday's top five.
Tether and Circle are excluded, despite generating $24.45M daily, as their revenue mainly comes from Treasury yields. $DOGE's "Japan Experiment": A Demystifying Compliance Challenge
The narrative around Dogecoin is quietly shifting. Japanese listed company ReYuu Japan has partnered with Web3 firm abc and the House of Doge under the Dogecoin Foundation in a tripartite strategic cooperation to explore directions such as gold-backed stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and joint funds. This is not another round of community hype but a "practical experiment" bound by compliance constraints.
The uniqueness of the Japanese market lies in the precision of its regulatory framework. JVCEA's "green list" mechanism sets a pre-approval threshold for token listings, and crypto assets are transitioning from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This means that for DOGE to truly enter the Japanese commercial scene, it must first pass compliance checks—an approach completely different from the logic of a single tweet from Musk moving the market.
The division of labor among the partners is also worth noting. abc is responsible for token design and smart contract development, ReYuu Japan handles localized business expansion, and House of Doge provides ecosystem coordination and global networking. ReYuu Japan completed its first batch of DOGE purchases in April 2026, holding approximately 254,000 DOGE in total. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH US September CPI and core CPI both came in higher than market expectations, inflation has not been suppressed.
With high inflation, the Federal Reserve is even less willing to cut interest rates, and the timing of rate cuts may be delayed.
Cooling rate cut expectations → US Treasury yields tend to rise → risk assets like Bitcoin come under pressure.
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%; monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%, all exceeding expectations, signaling inflation rebound.
The market originally bet that the Fed could cut rates earlier, but this data will weaken rate cut expectations!
After the data release, the market has already started betting on three rate hikes next year.