Postaus

🧠 42M+ $ETH Staked: Bullish Supply Shock or a Hidden Problem? Most people see more than 42 million ETH staked—nearly 35% of total supply—and immediately call it bullish. The argument is simple: more $ETH is locked, circulating supply decreases, and selling pressure should weaken. I understand that logic. But I think the situation is more complicated. On August 4, Justin Drake and five other Ethereum Foundation researchers submitted EIP-8361, introducing a mechanism called “Tapered Issuance Burn.” The basic idea is that as the staking ratio increases, more validator rewards would be burned. If staked $ETH eventually reaches 50% of total supply (~60.25M ETH), new consensus-layer issuance could fall to zero. That sounds like a solution to the risks of excessive staking and validator concentration. But it raises another question: Who gets hurt the most if this happens? Existing stakers. Today, staking yields are roughly 3.5%–4% annually. If the staking ratio keeps rising under EIP-8361, validator rewards could gradually decline until reaching zero at the 50% threshold. In other words, the more people stake, the closer the system moves toward reducing the reward for everyone already staking. It reminds me of everyone rushing to fill a pool without realizing the drain is getting wider. 🫠 Then there’s the DeFi impact. Ethereum staking yield has increasingly become a reference point for DeFi’s base rate. Lending markets such as Aave and Compound indirectly operate around this broader yield environment. If Ethereum’s staking yield is pushed significantly lower—or eventually toward zero—liquid staking protocols such as Lido and Rocket Pool, along with liquid-restaking ecosystems, could face a meaningful shift in their valuation narratives. And the governance process itself deserves attention. Some community members have criticized the timing and limited discussion window around EIP-8361, arguing that changing Ethereum’s monetary policy is far more significant than a routine parameter adjustment. My current view: 📌 I think the probability of EIP-8361