#BOJRateHikeInFocus

CRYPTO HAS A BIG MACRO TEST AHEAD. 🌡️👀 Oil is back above $100. U.S. inflation data is coming. And the Fed decision is getting closer. That means volatility could return quickly. For me: Liquidity > FOMO. Let the market show its hand first. #BTC #ETH #Crypto

A quick market take: Bitcoin’s August rally toward $80K was fueled largely by expectations of easier liquidity. Now that those expectations have been priced in, the market may be realizing valuations ran ahead of reality. Don’t mistake a few green candles for a fresh bull run. With the U.S. Treasury repo boost fading, liquidity support is weaker. Unless the Fed turns dovish, downside pressure could continue. This correction may erase August’s gains—or go deeper. #OracleAdobeToday

The BOJ risk is less the next hike than the pace after it. With September fully priced in, Nakagawa's warning on faster tightening makes the policy path more important than the meeting itself. My read: a hike that meets expectations may matter less for global risk assets than guidance that forces carry traders to reassess how long cheap yen funding can last. #BOJRateHikeInFocus

Japan’s government bonds slumped on Friday, tracking a selloff in the US bond market after escalating Middle East tensions drove up oil prices.

Been watching Bessent plug the UST market from every direction.. the sovereign cracks are starting to show: buybacks, defending Yen (raising dollars against USTs instead of BOJ dumping them into the market) plus AI capex arms race is now competing for the same pool of capital Hard not to be reminded of the the historical parallels Plaza in 1985, joint yen buying in 1998, G7 yen selling after Fukushima in 2011. historical context is diff but whenever Washington enters fx market the spillover is always bigger than fx itself When the anchor asset of global capital markets, the presumed “safest asset”, needs this much active maintenance, you know something structurally unstable is cooking

BOJ MAY SIGNAL READINESS TO ACCELERATE RATE HIKES: SOURCES SAY, NO FIXED VIEW ON TERMINAL RATE OR TIMING OF FURTHER INCREASES

BOJ may signal readiness to accelerate rate hikes: sources say, no fixed view on terminal rate or timing of further increases

Three months ago, zero economists saw a September BOJ hike coming. Today, all 52 expect one next week & further 93% see another by January. The market is now pricing a full-blown hiking cycle from the country that defined zero rates. The key question: Can they afford it??

Brent just hit ~$109 as the Middle East energy shock deepens. At the same time, US 10Y yields are approaching 5% and markets price roughly 70% odds of a Fed hike next week. $BTC and $ETH are both down about 0.8%. The unusual part? Crypto is now trading like a macro asset — oil and yields may matter more than crypto headlines.