Orbit Post Sitemap
The event truly worth watching tonight may not be the September CPI, but Anthropic's closed-door meeting.
According to CNBC, Anthropic is holding a closed-door meeting tonight for core institutional investors, publicly disclosing its complete Q3 financial data for the first time to pave the way for its upcoming IPO. Two anonymous insiders have also confirmed the meeting arrangements.
The core purpose of this closed-door meeting is to convey the latest revenue growth and profitability metrics to the capital market before formally submitting the S-1, helping institutions establish a clearer valuation reference. Management and cooperating investment banks will also assess market acceptance and pricing expectations for the IPO based on feedback from attendees.
What’s truly worth pondering is the sequence of events: the normal process is for everyone to see the numbers together after submitting the S-1, but Anthropic is showing the most complete quarterly financials exclusively to institutions before the public filing. Letting buyers who can price the shares access the data first, then the public market sees it later—the time gap itself constitutes a pricing event.
Anthropic previously delayed its IPO pace to wait for Q3 financial data. Being able to wait indicates management’s confidence in the Q3 numbers. They are willing to slow down to put the most complete quarterly financials on the table.
What to watch next is the data itself. Revenue growth and profitability metrics will directly influence institutions’ valuation anchors and affect market reactions when the S-1 is publicly filed later. If the data falls short of expectations, feedback from the closed-door meeting will surface before the public market reflects it.A governance proposal on PancakeSwap aims to uniformly increase the LP fee share for 11 supported chains on on-chain v3 and Infinity to 88%, while reducing the protocol fee to 12% and injecting it into the treasury; v2 remains unchanged. Based on 2025 trading volume estimates, LPs are expected to earn an additional approximately $62 million in fees annually, with traders' fee rates unchanged, but liquidity depth is expected to increase by up to about 30%, and price impact to decrease by about 20%–25% at most.
The extra portion given to LPs is not created out of thin air; it is made available from the protocol's own retained 12%. When a protocol is willing to actively earn less in fees, it usually indicates it fears liquidity leaving more than it fears earning less.
At the same time, the proposal plans to reduce the daily CAKE emission from 22,500 to 7,000, a cut of about 69%. All 7,000 will be allocated to the ecosystem growth fund Pantry, reducing CAKE minting by about 5.7 million annually. The total CAKE supply has decreased by 11.5% since Tokenomics 3.0 was implemented in April 2025, and the proposal aims to maintain the goal of reducing supply by about 20% by 2030. On one hand, it offers benefits to LPs to retain them; on the other, it reduces issuance. Both actions point to the same goal: making this pool more attractive to liquidity providers rather than to those waiting to receive new tokens.Today's summary in one sentence: Bitcoin traded sideways all day between 83,000 and 84,100, currently priced at 83,475, moving only +0.15% in 24 hours. The total liquidations across the network dropped from 770 million yesterday to about **150 million** — before the CPI release, the market pulled back all leverage, waiting sideways for the 8:30 PM announcement tonight. Comparing with this morning's expectations, where was the difference? This morning I said that under a hawkish scenario, leveraged long positions would continue to be squeezed, and BTC might test 80,951 again. The actual movement was the opposite: the bulls were not hit further; the shorts were the ones squeezed. Of today's 150 million liquidations, shorts accounted for 52%, and among BTC liquidations, shorts made up 78%, with the largest single liquidation being a BTC short position worth over 3 million USD on Binance. The script is simple: before CPI, the price did not drop, the 83,000 level held firm, and the shorts couldn't hold on and were forced to buy back to close positions — this is a typical short squeeze, where shorts themselves supported the price. Why was it sideways and not a drop? Three reasons. First, the 770 million liquidation yesterday washed out most of the high-leverage longs, so no one dared to open large positions before CPI today; both longs and shorts retracted, naturally reducing volatility. Second, spot buying continued: the price briefly surged to **84,147** (today's high) in the morning session, though it didn't hold and fell back, but every dip below 83,000 found buyers, keeping the price stuck in a range between the 50-day moving average at 81,000 and the 84,000 ceiling. Third, on the macro side, neither bulls nor bears had new cards: the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.36% to 5.2%.#Tokenized US Treasuries Used for Large-Scale Triparty Repo for the First Time
The leader has something to say
BNY Mellon and Castle Securities completed the first large-scale triparty repo using tokenized US Treasuries as collateral financing. Castle purchased two-year US Treasuries, BNY generated on-chain tokenized securities, settled within minutes, then used them for overnight repos. Tokenized US Treasuries have entered institutional collateral financing scenarios from issuance and settlement. Ondo-related products have surpassed $3 billion in scale.
I believe this is an important step for RWA implementation. Previously, tokenized bonds could only be held and traded; now they can be used as collateral to borrow funds. Institutional capital entering on-chain has gained a real outlet. This is a long-term positive for RWA and stablecoin settlement.
However, in the short term, there is no boost to coin prices. Bitcoin still follows macro trends. US Treasuries 30-year yield is 5.7%, ETF funds are still flowing out, and CPI is about to be released. I am currently out of position and not catching falling knives. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-loss set. Good luck.Tonight's CPI is actually not the focus; the focus is that the Federal Reserve's credibility is being treated as a joke by the market. Hawkish comments from Harker say more hikes are coming, yet the market prices in a 77% chance of no move in October. Both sides are completely out of sync.
For Bitcoin $BTC, U.S. institutions are reducing positions while whales have increased holdings by over 80,000 coins in three weeks. Institutions are withdrawing, long-term holders are accumulating. If CPI is hotter than expected, Bitcoin will be hit first, but after the bad news is fully priced in, whales may accelerate accumulation. If the core month-on-month is only 0.2%, Bitcoin could test 84,000 to 85,000.
Ethereum $ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 500 million last week, with BlackRock pulling nearly 500 million. But a detail worth noting is that its leverage ratio dropped to a seven-month low, funding rates turned negative, and shorts are paying to hold positions. If the price holds above key support, short covering could fuel a rebound. The premise is that ETF outflows must stop first, which hasn't happened yet.
Gold $XAUT is seeing speculative longs exit the futures market; UBS says this decline is due to non-commercial accounts reducing net longs. However, gold ETF holdings are unusually resilient, with continuous inflows, and central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, with September's increase being the largest this cycle. Speculators are exiting, allocators are stepping in. Bitcoin's buyers are on-chain whales; gold's buyers are central banks. The nature and patience of these funds are on completely different levels.
Don't bet on the data; bet on the Federal Reserve's credibility crisis. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Tonight at 20:30, the US September CPI will be released. Don't just focus on the overall 0.6% noise from oil prices; the real hidden line is the core CPI: expected 0.2%, previous 0.3%. 📉
The market gives only a 17% chance of a rate hike in October, showing a dovish tone. But if the core month-on-month hits 0.3%, that 17% will spring back—because the core excludes energy, revealing whether inflation is spreading. The Fed's September minutes also warned: if energy prices stay high, they could seep into broader prices. ⚠️
So tonight's logic: high overall = known, high core = surprise. Core at 0.2 means risk appetite can catch a breath; core at 0.3 means the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, $BTC first deleverages then looks for support. Where will BTC fall? First look at previous lows/liquidation clusters and whether ETF inflows provide a floor—don’t guess blindly. 📊
Are you betting on 0.2 or 0.3? If it exceeds expectations, which BTC level should you watch? Let's learn together 🧠 #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ "Probability of Rate Hike Soars, Why Can't Bitcoin Rally"
Just checked CME FedWatch: 77.3% probability of no change in October, 22.7% probability of a 25 basis point hike. A month ago, this hike probability was zero. December is more hawkish: 68.7% probability of a 25 basis point hike, 19.1% probability of a 50 basis point hike, and only 12.2% chance of no hike. The market is almost certain there will be a rate hike before year-end.
I believe this is the fundamental reason why BTC can't rally. The Fed has shifted from rate cut expectations to rate hike expectations, naturally putting pressure on high Beta assets. If CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will continue to rise. Tonight's data will reveal the outcome.
$BTC $SOL $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% The French Parliament is reviewing the 2027 budget proposal, which plans to include cryptocurrency exchanges into MiCA-regulated stablecoins under a 31.4% capital gains tax starting January 1, 2027. Currently, none of these measures have become law; it is still an amendment undergoing procedures.
The real change in this draft is not the tax rate but "what counts as a disposal." Many people treat exchanging Bitcoin for USDT as just changing the storage form, not a sale. Once exchanging for stablecoins is classified as a taxable event, those who temporarily convert to stablecoins for hedging or to avoid using banks will have to calculate tax each time.
Chainalysis France CEO Francois Volpoet warns that this direction will push traders toward stablecoins and offshore channels outside EU regulation and difficult to monitor. The higher the tax rate, the more funds will move to less transparent places, which is a predictable reaction.
The same set of measures also includes: declaring self-custodied crypto wallets valued at least 100,000 euros, and including crypto assets in exit tax scope. Viewed separately, these are tax compliance measures; together, they bring both self-custody and exit routes under regulatory oversight.
The Finance Committee passed the amendment on October 7, supported the self-custody declaration and exit tax measures on October 9, but then rejected the government's 2027 budget revenue section by 31 votes to 3. The related crypto tax amendments need to be resubmitted to the full National Assembly for reconsideration, with the revenue vote expected on October 20.NEAR at $5, are you itching to buy?
CPI will be released in an hour and a half tonight. Long positions just dropped from a historic high of 1.92 billion, with liquidation lines at 4.96 and 4.89 right below. Are you trading or gambling?
Let's look at the surface first: from 2.3 to 6, more than doubled in a month, now slammed back to 5. Everyone is asking—can you catch the bottom?
I tell you: $5 is the middle of the range, not the starting point of a rally. Opening new positions before CPI is like catching a flying knife with your eyes closed.
First thing: this surge was driven by leverage, not spot buying.
NEAR futures open interest was only 300-450 million in July and August. It exploded starting mid-September, reaching a historic high of 1.92 billion on October 12. Price dropped from 6 to 5, but open interest only fell by 20%, still at 1.56 billion.
In plain terms: leverage hasn't been cleaned out yet.
Binance funding rates annualize at 6-7%, Hyperliquid at 11%. Longs are still paying, but it's no longer extremely crowded. The real risk is—the first level of long liquidation is at 4.96 and 4.89, just 1%-2% below $5. If CPI is hotter than expected, this layer will be hit first.
Chasing longs here with a stop loss within $0.2 is like handing over to the needle. Daily ATR is 0.54, daily volatility of 10%-16% is normal.
Second thing: the ETF and Intents bullish factors are already priced in.
Bitwise spot NEAR ETF, ticker NRR, launched on NYSE Arca on September 29, the first in the US. First week inflow was $58 million.
Sounds exciting? But NEAR's market cap is 6.6 billion; $58 million can't support a second wave unless inflows accelerate.
NEAR Intents cumulative volume is 31-33 billion, covering over 30 chains, with estimated annual fees of $45 million, some of which are used for buybacks. But there was a $3.86 million exploit in early October, recovered within 24 hours. The money came back, but the ETF story is selling this product, which was just hit, so valuation shouldn't be priced as zero risk.
Also, inflation dropped from 5% to 2.5%, with governance proposals aiming to reduce it further to 1.6%. This is a slow variable and won't help tonight.
Wintermute observes: funds are shifting from high-liquidity DeFi and large-cap coins to AI. That week, only 11 of 66 large-cap altcoins closed up, median -3.7%, NEAR was a winner. The winner's position is that $6 spike.
Third thing: technicals show weekly bullish, daily distribution.
Weekly RSI 68, moving averages bullishly aligned, large scale intact.
Daily RSI 55, MACD histogram turned negative, price below 9-day MA. Small scale is finishing this leverage cycle.
Key levels:
Resistance above: 5.37-5.60 (failed rebound means weakness) → 5.90-6.03 (previous highs supply)
Support below: 4.80 (21-day MA) → 4.62-4.64 (previous low platform) → 4.30-4.45 (real demand zone, last defense of the rally)
Trend break: daily close below 4.30, watch 4.00 50-day MA.
At $5, neither bulls nor bears have the advantage. The edge is at 4.80 pullback or a close above 5.25, not at the current price you are watching.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Weekly bullish, large scale intact
ETF channel open, $58 million inflow first week
Intents volume over 30 billion, real business
Inflation down from 5% to 2.5%, governance proposals to reduce further
Relative strength, outperforming the market for a month
On the other side:
Futures open interest dropped from 1.92 billion high, leverage not cleaned
Liquidation lines at 4.96 and 4.89 right below
ETF inflows relative to market cap can't support a second wave
Intents had a $3.86 million exploit
Macro: Fed rate 3.75-4%, possible hikes this year, zero chance of cuts
10-year US Treasury 5.1-5.2%, high beta assets being reduced first
Tonight's CPI core data will decide direction.
Consensus: overall CPI YoY 3.6%, core 2.4-2.5%.
Core MoM ≥ 0.3% or YoY above 2.5%: long liquidation below $5 triggers first, 4.96 and 4.89 liquidated, price targets 4.80 or even 4.62.
Core MoM ≤ 0.2% and YoY steady at 2.4%: only then can we talk about returning to 5.50.
Don't use "it's stronger than the market" to hold through CPI. Altcoins have higher beta than ETH; with the same data, NEAR is more elastic.
Trading strategy
Long in two tiers, don't catch the flying knife in the middle at $5:
After soft data, 4-hour close above 5.25, pullback to 5.10 without breaking, enter again. Stop loss 4.88. First target 5.55, second 5.90. If daily close can't reclaim 5.60, exit at 5.55.
Better position is 4.80-4.85, need to see lower wick and close back above 4.95. Stop loss 4.60. Use half normal position size due to high open interest. Target first 5.40.
Deeper planned orders at 4.35-4.50, stop loss 4.15. This is the buy point while the rally is still alive. If daily close breaks 4.30, plan invalidated; next support 4.00, not "add another tier."
Short only two ways:
Rebound 5.40-5.60 fails, 4-hour close can't reclaim. Stop loss 5.70. Target 4.90, then 4.64.
4-hour close below 4.88, rebound 5.00 fails. Stop loss 5.20. Target 4.64, extend to 4.35. If 4.90 holds, don't chase shorts, risk-reward is poor.
Structure rules fixed:
Daily close below 4.30 ends the rally since September, only shorts or no position.
Daily close above 5.60 ends correction, close all shorts, next target 6.03.
6.03 without volume breakout remains resistance, not a breakout.
NEAR now is like SOL in 2021—
From $2 to $6, everyone shouted "the next Ethereum."
Then retraced 50%, everyone called it a "scam."
Then it rose to $20.
But this time, are you sure you can withstand that 50% retracement in the middle?
A bull market isn't without corrections, but every correction feels like a bear market. $BTC $ETH $NEAR The United States will release the September CPI at 20:30 Beijing time on October 14. The market expects that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% up to 3.6%–3.7%, while the core CPI month-on-month growth rate may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. Recently, Harker, Williams, and Collins have successively signaled the possibility of continuing rate hikes within the year but have not explicitly advocated immediate action in October. CME FedWatch data shows that the market prices about a 77% chance of keeping rates unchanged in October and about a 23% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The current divergence centers on the timing of the rate hike: if core inflation exceeds expectations, the probability of a hike in October may rise; if price pressures mainly come from energy, the pause expectation may be reinforced. The data results will further affect the pricing of assets such as U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, gold, and BTC.📉 Today's market feels like a script change
$ZEC followed BTC down to around 1120 in the early session, but then sharply pulled back to 1220 by midday, with bears getting slapped back and forth. 🧨 Multi-timeframe indicators still lean bearish, open interest has clearly shrunk, and the long-short ratio is 46:54: more shorts with light positions; fewer longs with heavy positions. The capital structure is quite conflicted. I tend to think this V-shaped rebound is a dead cat bounce, a struggle in a downtrend rather than a reversal. 🐱
Avoid $NEAR for now. Liquidity is thin, the order book is easily manipulated, easy to get in but not necessarily easy to get out gracefully. ⚠️
Two most painful regrets in trading: not taking profits and watching them evaporate; or getting scared and running away, missing the main rally. The root cause is often not setting the timeframe before opening a position. Entering on a 15-minute chart but expecting a 4-hour trend, then holding on too long after the move finishes, turning unrealized gains into losses; entering with a 4-hour logic but getting shaken out before the trend breaks, only able to watch it run. 😮💨
Short-term trades eat short-term profits, long-term holds endure long-term volatility. When timeframes get mixed up, mindset collapses. Set your timeframe first, then talk direction. 🧭#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The market is stuck halfway up the hill, with neither bulls nor bears daring to make the first move. Fed's Williams says there's no rush to raise rates, no worries before 2027, risk appetite has slightly rebounded, ZEC leads the rebound, and South Korean chip stocks have stopped their five-day losing streak. But the chip sell-off isn't over yet, tech stocks have cooled off again, and Bitcoin just touched 84,000 but was pushed back within an hour. Everyone is now waiting for the September CPI; without the data, no one dares to go all in.
BTC is currently at 83,412, up 0.2% in 24 hours. Resistance at 84,000 is strong, short-term support is at 83,000, and if broken, look to 82,000. Before the data, expect narrow-range grinding; don't expect it to pick a direction on its own.
ETH is currently at 2,503, up 0.28% in 24 hours. It keeps fluctuating around 2,500, down 4.36% over seven days, much weaker than Bitcoin. 2,480 is the bottom line; if it can't hold above 2,520, no talk of a rebound.
ZEC is currently at 1,239, up 3.35% in 24 hours. It dropped 80 dollars from 1,282, a quick rise and fall just played out; those chasing highs have already been left behind. It is the vanguard of the rebound and also the first wave of the sell-off.
Don't get itchy before CPI lands. Jumping in now isn't bottom-fishing; it's feeding the data as fuel.
$BTC $ZEC $ETH
#韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 This whale closed out $15 million worth of long positions at break-even before the CPI release. Could the CPI tonight be a bombshell?
The whale with address starting 0x4ff9 completely liquidated about 6,000 ETH long positions (approximately $14.98 million) within the past hour, exiting near break-even and clearing all account positions.
With the CPI data about to be released, this whale’s near break-even closeout shows a lack of confidence in the upcoming market rally.
Currently, $ETH is oscillating narrowly between 2485-2510, with the price basically hugging the 2500 whole number level. The short-term structure is weak, price is below multiple short-term moving averages, RSI is neutral to weak, and volume has not increased, overall compressing ahead of the data.
Support levels:
First support: 2470-2485 (near intraday lows; losing this would weaken the short-term structure)
Key support: 2450-2430 (previous low concentration zone; a decisive break could accelerate downside)
Stronger support: 2400-2410 (recent rebound starting point; breaking this would turn short-term outlook weak)
Resistance is seen at 2520-2530, then further up at 2550-2560.
The whale’s choice to close at break-even before CPI is more about avoiding data uncertainty than confirming a direction.
After the data release, the focus will be on whether 2470 holds and if funds re-enter the market. What’s your take on tonight’s volatility? #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 The US September CPI will be released tonight at 8:30 PM. The market expects overall inflation to jump from 3.4% to 3.6%-3.7%, mainly driven by energy, with gasoline prices rising more than 7% in one month. However, the core CPI is actually cooling down, with the month-on-month expectation dropping from 0.3% to 0.2%, and the year-on-year around 2.5%, indicating that price increases are basically concentrated in the energy sector and have not spread to other areas.
Recently, Williams and Collins have consecutively taken a hawkish stance, both saying there might be another rate hike within the year, but no one advocates for action in October. The probability of a rate hike in October is currently only about 23%, with the market betting on December. What can truly change this pricing is the core CPI. If the core month-on-month stays within 0.2%, the expectation of a pause will be more stable; if the core also exceeds expectations, then the probability of an October rate hike will have to be revised upward.
$BTC is now around 83,000, rebounding from just above 80,000. There likely won't be major moves before the data release tonight; the key is how US Treasury yields move afterward. If the core CPI holds steady and Treasury yields ease, Bitcoin will have a chance to test 85,000 again. If the core exceeds expectations, the 82,000 support will have to be tested again. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $SOL On this chain, there is a type of money that doesn't speculate on tokens; it represents real-world assets brought on-chain to conduct business.
According to the data site's categories, this type currently totals $585 million, spread across 12 projects. The two largest are one in reinsurance with $293 million and one in lending with $249 million, together accounting for 92% of this category.
The rest are smaller players, the next largest at $33.6 million, followed by several in the millions or even tens of thousands. The scale of this category is basically supported by the top two.
Behind these assets are real-world cash flows—insurance payouts and loan interest—moved on-chain for faster settlement and transparent accounting. They rely on real cash flow and are indifferent to token price fluctuations.
On-chain lending and market-making categories each have scales in the two to three billion dollar range, while this category remains in the single-digit hundreds of millions. Compared to SOL's $63.8 billion market cap, it's less than one percent.
A 1% move in SOL's market cap equals $638 million, which is more than this entire category, so inflows and outflows here currently don't affect the token price; price changes remain the token's own business.
But the direction is worth watching. Rapid inflows here indicate institutions are willing to put real assets on this chain for settlement, not just for trading.
This category has its own section on the data site; checking it periodically reveals how fast this money is flowing in.$ZEC is stuck in a frustrating sideways range ahead of tonight’s CPI data. ⚡
Both sides are waiting for a mistake. Once the data hits, one side could get liquidated as price breaks out.
#ASMLQ3ResultsOct14 A Delaware registration: How far has the HYPE ETF come? I'll break down the process for you
First, the facts: Public reports show that an ETF trust entity targeting $HYPE completed registration in Delaware on January 8, and related reports were released on January 9. Don't get excited just seeing the three letters "ETF"; I'll explain the entire process step by step.
From concept to launch, an ETF must go through entity registration, formal application, regulatory approval, and operational launch. What has been completed now is just the first step — "someone has registered the company," but approval is still far away, let alone any capital inflow. So, is this important? Yes. It shows that an institution is willing to pave the way for HYPE, opening a small window for institutional imagination. But that's all — the market always likes to trade on expectations ahead of time, and price fluctuations often come from expectations running ahead of the paperwork.
My approach: Keep this progress in mind and watch for the follow-up official documents. Imagination is imagination, but only the official stamp counts. Faith remains unchanged; waiting for the documents.Anthropic's decision to show Q3 performance privately to institutional investors makes the reported $2T valuation less a verdict than a negotiating reference point. Demand can be tested before full earnings face public scrutiny, while the offering size and timetable remain open.
That preserves flexibility, but it also leaves outsiders with a headline valuation and few inputs for judging it.
#AnthropicIPOValuation #Strive增持3311枚BTC，高息融资能否持续？
The boss has something to say
Strive has increased its position again. From October 5 to 9, it spent $280 million to buy 3,311 BTC, bringing the total holdings to 32,773 BTC. At the same time, it plans to issue 10,000 SATS preferred shares at $100 each, with an annual dividend of 15%, raising funds to continue buying coins.
The strategy is the opposite. In the past two weeks, it spent $369 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares, only increasing BTC holdings by 584. One is leveraging up to buy coins, the other is deleveraging to preserve cash flow.
My judgment is that high-interest financing is a double-edged sword. It amplifies gains in a bull market, but in a bear market, the 15% dividend is a fixed expense. When the coin price fluctuates, cash flow pressure arises. Strive is betting on BTC continuing to rise, but once it stagnates or falls, financing costs will eat into profits.
The market focus has shifted from the scale of holdings to financing efficiency and capital structure. Whose model is more stable will survive longer.
I am currently out of position; my long at 82,800 was stopped out today. I won’t catch falling knives before the CPI release. ETF funds are still flowing out, 30-year US Treasury yields at 5.7%, macro pressure remains. Treasury increases are slow variables and cannot change short-term rhythm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
No chasing highs or panic selling, waiting for data to settle before finding a position.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on trades. Good luck.【Crypto Circle Script】
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
I'm Script Bro, the CPI is coming again tonight
The crypto circle is probably facing another big guess-the-size event
The market's biggest dilemma now isn't whether inflation is high or not
But whether the Federal Reserve still wants to raise interest rates
To put it simply, the US economy is a bit awkward right now
Employment is starting to cool down, but inflation hasn't fully softened yet
On one side, it's getting harder for ordinary people to find jobs
On the other, prices just won't come down
The Fed is stuck in the middle, getting slapped from both sides
But I think people might be overlooking one issue
The market isn't really trading the CPI itself
It's trading the gap between the CPI and expectations
No matter how bad the data is, as long as it's not as bad as expected, it can still go up
No matter how good the data is, if the market has already bet too heavily in advance
The good news might turn into bad news when realized
That's why in crypto we often see prices surge first when news breaks
Then crash afterwards
It's not that the whales can predict the future, but that leverage positions are too crowded
Especially now, BTC itself is caught between macro pressure and institutional allocation pulling in opposite directions$BTC $ETH $ZEC Looking at the leaderboard for a long time, here’s an easy pitfall to avoid.
There are plenty of people with high returns on the leaderboard, but not many can consistently lead trades for more than half a year — I pulled some data, and an average of 362 days leading trades is considered a long time.
Many people choose signal providers by looking at returns at first glance, which is almost the easiest way to get burned — high short-term returns often mean high leverage and severe drawdowns. My own criteria are only three:
- The signal provider has been active long enough (at least through one full market cycle)
- Can withstand the maximum drawdown
- The number of followers steadily increases, not fluctuating up and down
Returns are the result, not the cause. Those who survive long-term naturally don’t have poor returns.
Which metric do you value most when choosing a signal provider? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#BTC #XAUT Tonight's CPI, the core is the real needle
Good evening, brothers.
At 20:30, US September CPI. Overall expectation is a month-on-month +0.6%, driven by oil prices; core expectation dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. The probability of a rate hike in October has been pushed down to 17%. But as long as the core deviates from 0.2%, for example still at 0.3%, the rate hike expectation will immediately reverse.
Logic: High overall is not scary, high core is deadly. The core excludes energy and looks at whether inflation is spreading. The September minutes also warned that high energy prices may transmit to broader prices.
My positions: BTC long with 35% floating profit, ETH long with 40% floating loss. The floating loss is narrowing, but tonight is the big test. Set your bottom line and wait for the data.
Do you bet on core 0.2 or 0.3? If it exceeds expectations, how low will BTC fall? What is the basis? Let's learn together.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC was pressed down twice at 84000, can tonight's CPI give us a clear answer?
BTC is now stuck at 83385, barely moving throughout the day, down only 0.42%. Several times it touched the 84000 mark, only to be forcefully pushed back, unable to rise or fall—everyone watching the market is holding their breath waiting for the shoe to drop. This kind of frustrating sideways trading is something veteran traders defending the price recently definitely understand.
The funding side just showed a bit of warmth; yesterday, spot ETF net inflows were $176 million, the highest in nearly two weeks. But the overall net outflow for the first week of October was still $386 million. A single day's inflow doesn't mean much; it looks more like big money quietly positioning before the data release, ready to rush out the moment the numbers come out.
Don't be fooled by the surface-level year-over-year 3.6% expectation—this figure is artificially pushed up by energy price hikes, which the Fed doesn't really consider. The core CPI is tonight's decisive factor. Currently, institutions are completely divided: Goldman Sachs predicts a slightly stronger core month-over-month at 0.24%, while Citi only expects 0.18%, saying communication service prices will drag it down.
Tonight, there are basically two paths: if the core data is below 0.2%, easing rate hike expectations, BTC will surge past 84000 and hold to see 85000; if the data exceeds expectations and is stronger, rate hike talk will resurface, and BTC will directly retest 81600, breaking which it will head toward 80000. No one wants to miss out or get left behind at this critical juncture. Watching core data and capital flows is much more reliable than blindly guessing price moves.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Only 90 minutes left! Tonight's CPI will determine the direction of global liquidity.
If inflation remains high, expectations for rate cuts will be lowered again, with U.S. Treasuries reacting first, and the pricing logic for gold and the Nasdaq will be completely reshuffled. If the data unexpectedly weakens, the market will bet on a pause in rate hikes or even a shift to easing, relieving pressure on risk assets. Core CPI is the key trump card; rent, service prices, and wages directly determine the Fed's subsequent policy moves.
Currently, global markets have collectively entered a dormant state, with volatility deliberately suppressed. Most traders are reducing positions and waiting quietly for data guidance. Do not trust any breakout moves before the CPI release, as most are traps.
The instantaneous candlestick at 8:30 PM tonight marks the true start of the market: if data is below expectations, prices will surge first; if above expectations, the dollar strengthens and markets come under pressure; if it exactly meets expectations, it’s the most frustrating scenario, likely involving a spike to shake out positions before choosing a direction. Tonight, we are watching not just the candlestick but the global liquidity switch. One and a half hours left—don’t blink. $BTC $ETH #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 84360 is not a benchmark, it's the sniper line for the bears
At 8:14 AM, $814 million liquidated, 85% of which were long positions. Many think the bloodbath is over and a rebound is due. In my view, this rebound is not a stabilization but a downward continuation giving bears some points.
The market is very honest. Bitcoin tried to leverage the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia and Brent crude breaking 106, but by evening it barely touched 84,000 and couldn't hold, falling back to 83,500; the altcoins didn't even follow, ETH is stuck below 2,500, SOL only at 107. Market dominance rose above 60%, which looks like Bitcoin is strong, but actually the whole market is shrinking in volume, with funds huddling together for warmth—this solo run usually ends with Bitcoin catching down.
The macro environment doesn't support bulls either. Oil prices surged, making it hard for tonight's 8:30 PM CPI to disappoint; overall year-on-year is heading toward 3.6%-3.7%, 10-year US Treasury yields at 5.24% are pressing down, and the probability of a rate hike in December has reached 70%. Core month-on-month ≥0.3% means repricing for hikes; if it hits 0.4%, tonight will be the bulls' second liquidation.
So I don't treat those three levels as benchmarks at all:
$BTC 84,360, $ETH 2,580, $SOL 113 are three walls; if prices bounce up to just below these walls, it's bears adding positions. Once Bitcoin breaks 82,200, 80,000 is next; altcoins have already bowed out early, Bitcoin's catch-down will only be delayed, not absent.
Don't chase the first spike when data lands, wait for it to bounce up to the wall on its own
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BLUR , $YGG , and $SAND were once hot gaming and NFT tokens, but teams have gradually cashed out and unlocked tokens. Many still hope for a return to previous highs, but gaming and NFTs remain among crypto’s weakest sectors, especially with poor game quality and fierce competition from online, mobile, and AI games.I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Watching the market today, there is a counter-trend short position that deserves close attention.
The market generally bets on a pause in rate hikes in October, but traders called “greater-fools” are still increasing their $BTC short bets. From yesterday to today, they have invested about $4,381: predicting the market will "fall to 65,000 by year-end" with 136,100 contracts (implied probability 22.5%, value $30,600); "fall to 70,000 by year-end" with 55,800 contracts (probability 35.5%, value $19,800).
Even more aggressive is Hyperliquid, who still holds 26.97 BTC short positions (average price 69,962, value $2.25 million), currently floating a loss of $365,200, which is hard to hold.
Tonight’s US September CPI is key. If inflation exceeds expectations, the market will reprice tightening, which could become a short-term pressure source for BTC.
From a mid-term perspective, institutional selling pressure has not stopped; this position is an extreme battle between bulls and bears. Don’t blindly chase; hold your chips and wait for direction.
$ETH
$SNDK
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 BlackRock downgraded U.S. stocks from overweight to neutral and shifted preference to short-term bonds. This move is much more nuanced than simply "being bearish on U.S. stocks."
In its latest weekly review, it raised short-term U.S. Treasuries to overweight and long-term U.S. Treasuries to neutral, while still favoring AI-related companies within U.S. stocks. It describes this adjustment as short-term risk management, maintaining confidence in AI fundamentals. The long-term direction remains unchanged; only the risk premium it is willing to pay now has changed.
I think this is more worth pondering than daily debates about whether AI is in a bubble. For the same good company, when bonds offer more attractive returns, stocks must also provide sufficient compensation. You can believe in future growth while temporarily reducing overall equity risk; the two do not have to negate each other.
Especially since BlackRock prefers short-term bonds this time, it shows it is not simply betting on a sharp drop in long-term interest rates. Choosing maturities and deciding the stock-to-bond ratio are two issues that need to be considered separately. Interpreting all increased U.S. Treasury allocations as a bet on economic recession misses the actual reasons it states.
Supporting AI yesterday and lowering allocation today—is that not indecisive? The market loves to label institutions as bulls or bears. I actually appreciate the approach of recalculating price and return together.
Of course, this view does not mean all its funds will trade the same way. After reading this, what I want to ask more is: no matter how good a direction is, how much room does the current price still leave for investors?
#贝莱德转向超配短债，下调美股评级 Before the inflation data release, let's summarize the recent status of several assets of interest and the prerequisites for their breakout. If high interest rates persist, the focus will be on structural changes in individual crypto assets.
From the market perspective, most are showing range-bound fluctuations. This month, you can pay attention to the trend movements brought by structural events in assets like NEAR, UNI, SOL, and FIL.
Of course, if the expectation of rate cuts returns, everyone will be delighted~
$BTC $ETH $SOL Today's market can be summed up in four words — internal troubles and external threats. Bitcoin experienced intense two-way volatility today. During the Asian session, dragged down by South Korea's KOSPI index plunging 5.5% and falling 38% from its June peak, Bitcoin once dropped below $81,000, hitting a low near $81,300. Subsequently, strong buying intervened, pushing the price back above $84,000, with an intraday gain reaching 1.55%. However, pressure returned during the European session, and as of writing, BTC is trading just below $83,000, down about 0.53% over 24 hours. Ethereum faced similar pressure, dropping to $2,400 at one point, now around $2,413. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $803 million, with 172,100 traders liquidated, of which longs accounted for $694 million, or 86%. Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading volume hit $212 billion, up 66% from $126 billion the previous day; open interest nominal value was $143.4 billion, down 1.58%; liquidation amount surged 284% to $813 million. High trading volume, shrinking open interest, and increased forced liquidations — this is not new buying, but leverage being forcibly cleaned out. The Fear and Greed Index fell from 67 a week ago to 56, still in the "Greed" zone but noticeably cooling. 1. Over the past three days, Bitcoin went through a full pattern of bottoming, rallying, and falling back. On October 12, Asian chip stocks faced massive sell-offs.$BTC currently has a particularly asymmetric situation between longs and shorts: the liquidation exposure amounts on both sides are almost the same, but the number of positions differs by three times.
The short risk is spread across more than 480 positions, while the longs only have 150. With the same amount, one side consists of densely packed small retail traders, and the other side is a few large holders with heavy positions.
The big holders are on the long side, and the retail traders are on the short side. The most profitable group of addresses has just shifted from bearish to bullish, and the funding rate has flipped from a rare negative to positive — these three things all point in the same direction.
More importantly, above 87,000 there is a cluster of short stop-loss orders totaling tens of millions, just five points above the current price. If the price moves up a bit, these retail short sellers will become buyers themselves; the fuel is already prepared.
But one awkward fact must be acknowledged: the formation looks good, but incremental demand hasn't arrived. Apparent Demand is still underwater, and on-chain unrealized loss supply has just fallen below 30%, indicating selling pressure exhaustion, not demand activation.
84,000 has been the wall repeatedly hit in recent weeks; only after breaking above 87,000 will that cluster of shorts start to panic; below is 81,000, and if broken, look toward 80,000. $WAL At this position now, I'll be honest, don't fomo.
The Sui Foundation invested 30 million dollars into DATA Network, and Walrus aims to be the default storage for its AI applications. The AI storage narrative really has some solid backing, it's not just empty talk. It surged 35% in 24h, nearly 50% in 7 days, with obvious volume increase—real money is coming in.
But precisely because it has risen like this, I want to advise—there's not much reference above, chasing it is gambling on whether there's another wave of sentiment.
I've seen sector rotations many times. The storage line has indeed been bleeding these past few days, and the old $FIL holders are still lying low pretending to be dead. Funds are withdrawing from old storage to pour into new narratives; I've seen this once, twice, thrice. Walrus is worth watching, but chasing at a high level means you're not betting on fundamentals, you're betting that someone else will catch you without blinking. Just a word of advice, then move on. $FIL Three minutes to make a move, equivalent to the long three-day deliberation of the traditional clearing system—this is not a blitz game; someone has directly dismantled the entire chess clock.
In chess, the most dangerous thing is never the opponent's attack, but when they quietly complete castling and place the rook on the only open file. What happened on October 13 belongs to the latter: the custodian moved the two-year US Treasury bonds held by the market maker onto a private ledger; before the overnight repo financing even priced, the collateral had already been settled. This move cannot be found in the opening book but redefines the piece mobility in the middle game of financing.
To understand this game, first look clearly at the three parties on the board: the custodian is the king, the market maker is the queen, and the financing party is the pawn chain that must keep advancing. In the past, once collateral was put into custody, it was like a heavy piece being restrained—immobile, unexchangeable, repeatedly pledged with layers of confirmation. Now it has become a light piece that can be repeatedly deployed; the same piece can participate in multiple tactical exchanges overnight, each exchange lowering funding costs. This is a victory of piece efficiency, not speed—the grandmaster never pursues speed, only the extra move gained in the same time.
The real killer move is hidden in the second step. The total return swap linked to the tokenized bond index was moved onto another chain, effectively connecting the semi-open file; the tokenized Treasury product scale surpassing the 3 billion mark means the pawn has reached the seventh rank, just one step from promotion. These are not three isolated tactical combinations but a complete offensive sequence.
However, the latent risks in the position are also clear. Cross-platform liquidity is a fragmented board, compliance is a double restraint—you cannot protect two pinned pieces simultaneously; risk control is a long check that can come at any time, and any carelessness leads to an infinite loop of checks and being checked. When collateral is repeatedly re-pledged across multiple ledgers, the longer the chain, the more it resembles a tactical combination of continuous checks: brilliant, compact, and with zero tolerance for error. Any imprecision immediately leads to a suffocating position with no moves.
Whether costs can truly decrease is essentially not a technical issue but a matter of authoritative game record ownership. Whoever’s ledger is recognized as the final record, whoever’s settlement clock is shorter, holds the initiative and the first move. After putting equity assets on the same board, cross-market attacks will shift from single-line breakthroughs to dual attacks, and defenses must handle pressure on two fronts simultaneously.
This game has only reached the 15th move of the opening; the complexity of the middle game has yet to unfold. Whoever first cultivates the mobility of collateral into a passed pawn drags everyone into their own version of the endgame—while the opponent hasn’t even pressed the clock yet. #tokenizedtreasuryrepoMonitoring data shows that one week after the ENA unlock, related insiders have cumulatively transferred tokens worth nearly $50 million to exchanges. The unlocked tokens are beginning to enter trading venues, and the potential supply pressure is worth noting, but transfers do not yet confirm sales. Next, watch whether these addresses continue to deposit and if there is actual evidence of selling to determine whether this batch of tokens is being cashed out.
$ENA Micron's load-bearing columns experienced a 3.88% settlement overnight, while SanDisk's curtain wall cracked directly by 5.97%—this is not an ordinary market correction, but a structural resonance of the entire storage building. Samsung and SK Hynix's foundations are also simultaneously emitting abnormal sounds; everyone hears it, but no one wants to admit that the stress crack on the blueprint has long been expanding.
I've been in this industry for twenty years, and the thing I fear most is hearing the client say, "Demand is strong, profits are high, add three more floors." The AI computing power demand this time is like crazily adding floors on the existing foundation. Memory prices and profit margins have indeed been pushed up, but if you look back at that land—the geological survey report on the supply side is being re-examined. CXMT submitted a new blueprint for 4F² DRAM, saying they want to enter the main server memory lane by the end of the year. The problem is: the design looks great, but from blueprint to pouring concrete to passing inspection, there is an untraveled construction joint in between. Mass production cannot be counted until the building is topped out and delivered.
Looking back at the original two general contractors—Samsung and SK Hynix's buyback projects are nearing completion, which means the few temporary scaffolds supporting the stock price will be dismantled. Foreign capital is withdrawing, and the load accumulated from earlier price increases has not yet been unloaded. Naturally, the seemingly stable building will settle downward. The selling pressure is not an accident; it is a release of the structure's own weight.
What really keeps all structural engineers awake at night is the batch of new capacity coming online in 2027 to 2028—that is a whole new cluster of buildings being poured. If the AI engine on the demand side continues to run at full capacity, supply and demand can maintain dynamic balance, and the shear walls will hold; but once AI's marginal buying power loosens and profit margins can't support valuations, this batch of new buildings will become an empty forest of steel and concrete. When the wind changes, the entire skyline will tilt.
So the question has never been "Can it still rise?" but whether the core tube of this building is reinforced concrete or drywall.
I've seen too many projects where the facade is glossy enough for magazine covers, but when you lift the ceiling, all the pipelines are temporary splices. The real resistance of this storage market cycle does not lie in the capacity plans in press releases, nor in the size of buyback announcements, but in whether the lowest-level wafer production line can simultaneously engage the three main beams of yield, cost, and customer validation. If CXMT's 4F² structural selection holds up, it means driving piles next to others' load-bearing systems; if it's just conceptual pouring, then when this new building cluster arrives in 2027, the entire area's rent will be diluted.
Is AI the never-settling bearing layer? Now, no sectional drawing counts. We have to wait until the construction joints from 2026 fully close and the measured settlement data comes out to know whether this building can continue to add floors or must stop for structural reinforcement.
Until then, all valuations are just renderings. #sandiskmicronslide#Strive增持3311枚BTC，高息融资能否持续？ $BTC
Bought 3,311 BTC in one week, with the average price rising from about 79,500 to about 84,500.
▪️ From 10/5 to 10/9, purchased 3,311 BTC at an average price of approximately $84,500
▪️ Holdings increased from 29,462 BTC on 10/2 to 32,773 BTC
▪️ The last disclosure (9/14–9/18) was 1,355 BTC at an average price of $79,475
▪️ During the same period, $208 million in warrants were exercised, about 15.3 million remain, expiring on 10/13
▪️ The $100 minimum issuance price has become a binding clause in the governance documents
▪️ Weekly purchase volume expanded about 1.4 times, with the average price rising about 6% simultaneously
The disagreement is not about how many were bought, but at what cost these 3,311 BTC were acquired.
Volume is increasing, and price is also rising—the exercise of warrants brings equity, not operating cash flow. Including exercise, expiration, and minimum issuance price in governance documents indicates this round of expansion relies on capital instruments. Once financing costs rise, the pace of accumulation will respond before the coin price.
The direction is to wait and see—only if accumulation continues smoothly after the warrants expire can financing be considered smooth; otherwise, the pace will slow down first.#高盛Q3业绩超预期，美银行财报现分化
Same earnings report, stock trading +72%, fixed income −1%.
▪️ Q3 net revenue $18.68 billion, up 23.1% year-over-year, $1.79 billion above consensus
▪️ Stock trading revenue $6.44 billion, up 72% year-over-year; last quarter $7.42 billion was a record high
▪️ Net profit $5.294 billion, up 29% year-over-year; diluted EPS $17.01, consensus $13.02
▪️ Fixed income, FX, and commodities revenue down nearly 1% year-over-year, below expectations
▪️ After earnings, pre-market up over 3%, early trading up nearly 4%
▪️ CEO Solomon warns AI and data center financing demand is huge, but not every project will succeed
The divergence is not about beating expectations, but that two directions appear simultaneously in the same earnings report.
Stock trading +72%, fixed income −1%, these two figures come from different corners of the same balance sheet: the former profits from volatility, the latter from spreads and inventory. When interest rates are high, stock volatility increases while bond market trading thins out, causing the strengths of a full-service investment bank to shift.
The direction is to wait and see — fixed income turning positive next quarter would mean a full recovery; continued divergence means volatility remains the strength.Breaking down the buzz into orders
For $TIA's business, I first look at how much the developers have actually spent. Projects using Celestia to publish data need to pay fees priced in TIA, with costs related to transactions and data size. This requirement is straightforward, but does an increase in data volume necessarily mean a proportional increase in revenue? It depends on the actual charges. If capacity expands and unit costs decrease, using more might only bring limited revenue growth. So I prefer to look at paid data volume, unit charges, and total fees together. The number of connected projects is impressive, but order amounts are needed to support judgment.
What’s worth studying about $LINK is the revenue conversion step. According to official introductions, enterprise business income and on-chain service fees can accumulate into LINK reserves through a payment conversion mechanism. I track how much the reserves actually increase and whether the increase is sustained. Reserve accumulation and destruction should be calculated separately; tokens entering reserves do not automatically reduce total supply. The mechanism exists, but the actual execution scale determines the economic significance.
For $JTO, first distinguish between two types of rights. JitoSOL carries staked assets and related earnings, while JTO handles network governance functions. When studying staking business growth, I continue to check income distribution and governance proposals rather than directly attributing staking earnings to JTO holders. What’s truly worth focusing on later are which rules, once implemented, can create sustained demand for this token. ETH is stuck at 2503, repeatedly grinding along the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD histogram just turned green, and the RSI has already hit the overbought zone. This kind of short-term impulsive move diverging from overbought conditions is most vulnerable to a wick liquidation.
Around 2501.9, there is a large accumulation of long liquidations. The price is hugging the upper edge, and as long as it breaks below 2496, the first wave of forced liquidations will be triggered, instantly opening liquidity below. When the red light came on, I glanced again at the liquidation chart. In these dense long-short liquidation zones, the main players like to trap both sides.
There is also a considerable amount of short liquidation from 2550 to 2600 above, but chasing shorts at the current price is likely to get stopped out first. So I neither chase longs nor short at the current price. Instead, I try shorting in batches from 2508 to 2516, with a stop loss at 2541 and take profit initially at 2472, pushing down to 2440 if broken.
If the one-hour close holds above 2545, all short positions should be closed unconditionally and reversed to short-term longs, targeting 2585 with a stop loss at 2520.
$ETH
#阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点
@OKX星球 $SOL This 100x short SOL position's unrealized profit has surged wildly to 515.66%, with the main bearish phase completely eaten up, resulting in an extremely impressive profit cushion.
Looking back, entry was at 112.67; after high-level selling pressure was released, the bearish trend smoothly pushed down. The current mark price is 106.86. At zero-level spacing, under 100x extremely high leverage, it directly exploded to over 5.1x returns, with very fierce downward momentum.
Currently, 106.86 is approaching the 106.5 and 105 integer support levels and previous low support zones. Passive buying at low levels will inevitably be dense, and volume may shrink at any time. With 100x extremely high leverage combined with over 500% huge unrealized profit, although the profit is very thick, SOL as a highly volatile popular asset experiences especially intense order book fluctuations (often accompanied by sharp manipulative spikes from major players). Even a slight reverse pullback can instantly wipe out most of the profit or even trigger liquidation. The tail-end cost-performance ratio has dropped to freezing point.
Following the trend is easiest. At the current price, it is strongly recommended to close out more than 95% (or even fully close) to lock in profits, leaving a very small residual position with stop loss firmly nailed at the cost line (or significantly raised breakeven line to ensure absolute profit safety). Keep a close watch on the 105 and 100 support levels. If volume breaks through, a very small residual position can be left to float; if volume shrinks and price stagnates or any upward spike occurs, exit fully. Protecting real cash is the key; extremely high leverage only eats the body of the fish, not the tail. $BTC $ETH #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 On October 7, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose to 5.706%, hitting a new high since 2002. Many people's first reaction was: with such a high yield, is it time to buy long-term bonds? Basman’s reminder goes the other way—if the 20-year yield breaks 6%, some institutions might actually speed up selling.
The issue lies in the delivery rules of Treasury futures. Sellers can choose from a basket of Treasuries the one with the lowest delivery cost after conversion, and the conversion benchmark is set at 6%. Once market rates continue to rise, the most suitable bond for delivery will switch to a longer-term, more interest rate-sensitive one.
Basman’s report on October 13 calculated that the duration of the relevant delivery bonds rose from about 11 to 13.24, and after further switching, it could exceed 17. Without increasing positions, the same interest rate volatility causes amplified gains and losses. For institutions with risk limits, this is enough to trigger position reductions or increased hedging.
Leverage will further amplify the process. Many funds borrow money to buy Treasury cash bonds while simultaneously selling futures to earn the spread. When volatility spikes, margin requirements rise or financing becomes difficult, they can only sell cash bonds and buy back futures to reduce exposure. The original Treasury buying demand directly turns into selling pressure.
Therefore, the higher the yield, the more attractive long-term allocation may indeed be, but short-term prices depend on how concentrated the selling is and whether buyers have enough funds to absorb it. Institutions can remain optimistic about long bonds but may sell first due to risk limits and cash needs. Silicon Valley Bank fell into the same trap initially.The key test this week, the “CPI,” is about to be released, marking an important turning point for the financial markets this week. How should the data be interpreted? How should the US stock market, BTC, and bond market be priced normally? According to current expectations, the nominal inflation rate (yearly/monthly) is rising, mainly due to the energy price shock. Core inflation shows a monthly decline and a slight yearly increase. This data combination implies short-term inflation is slowing down, but long-term inflation remains sticky or under pressure. Nominal inflation is driven by the energy shock. Considering recent expectations released by Federal Reserve officials, it aligns with no rate hike in the short term but retains the expectation of a rate hike in December. Previously, I mentioned that from a conspiracy theory perspective, assuming data can be manipulated, the Fed’s goal is simple: to raise rates once in September as an insurance measure, then adjust the next rate hike expectation to December through data, no hike in October, and observe economic data for two months. As the December meeting approaches, the data will gradually weaken the possibility of a December hike. If actual inflation is controllable, the hike could be postponed to Q1 next year or even canceled altogether. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Of course, all premises depend on whether the CPI, PCE, and employment data for September and October support this. Currently, the PCE statistical method has changed, so the key is to watch the CPI. As long as the CPI is not excessive, data will gradually weaken before the December meeting, which is a healthy rhythm—neither overheating the market nor letting the market naturally expect rate hikes to self-limit liquidity. Back to the point, tonightWatching the market has become a bit exhausting; altcoins and the mainstream are quietly swapping places again. Do you get that feeling where the overall market barely moves, but the coins in your hand seem like their soul has been drained? Looking through $CORE's data these past two days gave me a jolt. If the number of nodes keeps dropping and falls below the threshold of 10, the risk can no longer be covered by the word "correction"—that basically means a soft exit. But on the flip side, nodes have stabilized at 16 without further decline, and BTC staking volume is still rising, so in the short term, there's a bit of a cover-up. The worst-case scenario is the third script: BTC staking withdrawals accompanied by node reductions; if these two bad news hit together, then it's no longer just an emotional issue. Back to the sectors. Recently, BTC is like the steady older sister firmly sitting in the main position, with narrowing volatility and funds not rushing out. ETH is trying to perform but lacks confidence, following the rise but not the fall, occasionally pushing hard but then softening again. Altcoins are in a sorry state, especially projects that rely on node narratives to support their valuations; once the data loosens, they run faster than anyone else. $CORE is a typical example; its current price is actually trading not on technology but on the expectation of "whether the nodes remain stable." What is the market pricing? I think it’s pricing the thickness of the "safety cushion." BTC holders are now less willing to stake their coins, preferring to keep them in cold wallets. ETH staking outflows aren’t that dramatic, but altcoin staking willingness is visibly declining. This transmission is subtle: the more stable the mainstream, the harder it is for altcoins to grab attention, because people’s risk appetite hasn’t disappeared, it’s just become more selective. The path leaning bullish is also Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon in the market. Everyone is focused on BTC's price fluctuations, yet they overlook a potentially important factor affecting the market: crude oil prices. To be honest, this time I am more concerned about the inflationary pressure brought by oil prices in the CPI. According to market forecasts, the overall US CPI year-on-year for September may reach 3.6%, while the core CPI is expected to be around 2.5%. Why is there such a big difference between the two? Because the core CPI excludes food and energy prices, while the overall CPI is directly affected by rising energy prices such as gasoline. This means that even if overall inflation rises, it does not necessarily mean that all goods are increasing in price simultaneously. But here’s the problem. If oil prices remain high, transportation and production costs may gradually increase, eventually passing on to the prices of other goods. This is what the Federal Reserve really needs to be wary of. 📊 Now let's look at why BTC might be affected. The logic is actually not complicated: Oil prices rise → inflationary pressure increases → expectations for rate cuts weaken or expectations for rate hikes strengthen → US Treasury yields may rise → risk assets like BTC come under pressure. Of course, this is not an inevitable outcome. If the CPI is lower than market expectations, US Treasury yields may fall back, and BTC might actually get a breather. 💡 The two data points I am most focused on now are: One is whether the overall CPI exceeds expectations. The other is whether the core CPI shows a significant rebound. If the overall CPI rise is driven only by energy, while core inflation remains stable, the market may not be as pessimistic as imagined. I think tonight really #美银调查揭示股债分歧，贝莱德提前增配短债 $BTC
In the survey, 37% of the money is still in tech stocks, while the trigger for convertible bonds is set at 6%.
▪️ Bank of America October survey (10/2–10/8, 161 respondents): net overweight in tech rose from 30% to 37%
▪️ This is the highest level since August 2020; semiconductors have replaced AI concepts as the most crowded trade
▪️ 37% believe the 10-year US Treasury yield must reach 6.0% before switching from stocks to bonds
▪️ 19% believe the current yield level is sufficient for them to shift to bonds
▪️ BlackRock has already shifted to increasing allocation in short-term bonds; Bridgewater's Dalio says the US Treasury bear market is far from over
▪️ Cash positions slightly increased, risk appetite has cooled down
The disagreement is not about who is right between stocks and bonds, but whether the survey measures position size or judgment.
The net overweight of 37% records the positions already bought, not the degree of bullishness; the 37% who think the switch to bonds happens at 6% measure a threshold not yet reached. Money is still in tech stocks, and the trigger for convertible bonds is set at 6%—the stock-to-bond switch will not happen prematurely, it will only occur passively after yields move first.
The direction is to wait and see—if the 10Y yield does not hit 6%, positions continue; if it hits, allocation shifts may be released in concentration.#US-Russia Diesel Cooperation Faces Congressional Opposition, Ceasefire Conditions Still Divided $BTC
Whether this arrangement can be implemented depends not on the negotiation table, but on Congress.
▪️ The Trump administration plans to use Russian diesel exports to the US as leverage to push Russia back to the negotiating table
▪️ The arrangement has sparked bipartisan opposition in Congress, with disputes extending to legal authorization and ceasefire enforcement
▪️ The UK, Germany, Estonia, Sweden, and others have expressed disapproval
▪️ The UK Defense Secretary said this move is largely motivated by midterm election considerations
▪️ Trump announced on 10/11 that Russia and Ukraine have entered an "energy ceasefire" state, claiming both sides have agreed
▪️ Analysts believe short-term additional Russian diesel supply is limited and delivery capacity is uncertain
The disagreement is not about whether diesel prices will drop, but about how many approvals this arrangement must pass through.
At the executive level, what can be signed is authorization; at the legislative level, it concerns the boundaries of sanction exemptions—bipartisan opposition targets the latter. Authorization can be reversed, but exemptions require legislation. What determines whether this arrangement can become a long-term supply is not the statements at the negotiation table, but whether Congress is willing to provide it with a stable legal framework.
The direction is to wait and see — only a shift to long-term contracts or exemption legislation counts as increased supply; remaining at authorization is merely a price disturbance.Tonight (October 14) at 20:30, the US September CPI will be released. Market expectations are already quite consistent: overall CPI year-on-year rising from 3.4% to 3.6%~3.7%, month-on-month about 0.6%; core CPI year-on-year steady at 2.4%, month-on-month about 0.22%, slowing compared to August's 0.29%.
The key point is: the overall inflation jump has already been priced in by the market because the driver is gasoline (September average price over $4.3 per gallon, a record for the month, with the Iran conflict pushing oil prices high), which is considered a "one-time disturbance." So tonight, what truly determines the direction of cryptocurrencies is the core CPI, not the overall CPI. Don't go all in yet; wait and see the PPI data tomorrow night.ASML's Q3 revenue in euros was slightly below expectations, but slightly exceeded expectations in US dollars. This difference in measurement is not significant by itself; the key point is that EPS exceeded expectations by 20.8%, indicating improvements in cost control and a higher proportion of high-margin products. The quality of profit is better than the revenue figures.
This is the third consecutive quarter of upward revisions to the outlook. The Q4 net sales guidance is €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion, while analysts previously expected around €13.97 billion. Such continuous upward revisions usually mean that management sees an extended order visibility.
Some customers have already started expressing purchase intentions for equipment in 2029 and 2030. The existing supply plans for 2027 and 2028 can no longer fully meet demand. Buyers willing to queue up in advance for years not yet arrived says more than a single quarter's performance.
Demand has outpaced capacity, so the constraint is no longer order volume but how many units can be produced. ASML's capacity ceiling is the upper limit for the entire downstream AI hardware expansion speed. With scheduling pushed to 2030, the barrier to entry is no longer just about wallet size.
The official plan is to continue exploring the possibility of further capacity increases in 2028, building on the previous 30% expansion target. This signal should be viewed in conjunction with another fact: if the pace of expansion cannot keep up, some customers may not get the delivery times they want, and no matter how strong the demand, it will not translate into current period revenue.#Anthropic plans to disclose Q3 results, valuation may reach $2 trillion $ANTHROPIC
The $2 trillion figure needs to be supported by the quarterly report for the first time.
▪️ Plans to disclose Q3 financial data to institutional investors this Wednesday
▪️ Reasonable valuation range given by potential investors is $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion
▪️ Confidential filing submitted to the SEC, S-1 not yet public, plans to go public in November
▪️ Previously leaked IPO materials: $42 billion loss, $4.6 billion revenue, $518 billion computing power commitment
▪️ Independent agency New Constructs values at $150 billion, about 93% lower than the target
▪️ If it happens, it will surpass SpaceX's IPO scale
The disagreement is not about whether $2 trillion is high, but that this figure needs to be supported by the quarterly report for the first time.
The valuation from private rounds comes from the judgment of a few and can remain unverified; once the quarterly report is disclosed, pricing power shifts from old shareholders to buyers. New Constructs uses $150 billion versus $2 trillion, a 93% difference—one based on current revenue, the other on future computing power commitments. The quarterly report disclosure puts the differences on the same table.
The direction is to wait and see—only if quarterly revenue matches computing power commitments is it solid; if not, the valuation will converge to the lower end. Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea issued a corporate loan, including Bitcoin as supplementary collateral. The company already had a credit loan, and after adding BTC, the credit limit increased, allowing them to obtain Korean won for operational turnover, with Bitcoin entrusted to a third-party custodian. The interest rate and collateral ratio have not been disclosed.
A longstanding issue for companies holding coins: they believe in the long-term value and don't want to sell, but need cash for payroll and payments. Previously, they could only cut losses or let assets sit idle. Now, if holdings can help companies secure bank loans, they don't necessarily have to sell coins when short on cash. The premise is passing the bank's credit review.
For banks to accept Bitcoin as collateral, three issues must be resolved first: its value, custody, and how to liquidate in case of default. Jeonbuk Bank established a valuation system based on prices from multiple exchanges, conducted stress tests for sharp declines, and arranged court enforcement procedures for liquidation and recovery within the loan structure.
The significance of this loan is not in the amount but that the bank has fully implemented valuation, custody, and default handling. Accepting new collateral is not just a statement; it depends on whether the process can be operationalized. Bitcoin entering traditional financial workflows is what counts as having practical financing use.
This case cannot yet be considered a trend. Interest rates, collateral ratios, and applicable scope have not been disclosed, and it is uncertain whether other banks will follow. But for companies holding coins deciding on long-term holding, there is now an additional variable to consider: whether the Bitcoin on their books can be converted into operating funds.