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Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea issued a corporate loan, including Bitcoin as supplementary collateral. The company already had a credit loan, and after adding BTC, the credit limit increased, allowing them to obtain Korean won for operational turnover, with Bitcoin entrusted to a third-party custodian. The interest rate and collateral ratio have not been disclosed.
A longstanding issue for companies holding coins: they believe in the long-term value and don't want to sell, but need cash for payroll and payments. Previously, they could only cut losses or let assets sit idle. Now, if holdings can help companies secure bank loans, they don't necessarily have to sell coins when short on cash. The premise is passing the bank's credit review.
For banks to accept Bitcoin as collateral, three issues must be resolved first: its value, custody, and how to liquidate in case of default. Jeonbuk Bank established a valuation system based on prices from multiple exchanges, conducted stress tests for sharp declines, and arranged court enforcement procedures for liquidation and recovery within the loan structure.
The significance of this loan is not in the amount but that the bank has fully implemented valuation, custody, and default handling. Accepting new collateral is not just a statement; it depends on whether the process can be operationalized. Bitcoin entering traditional financial workflows is what counts as having practical financing use.
This case cannot yet be considered a trend. Interest rates, collateral ratios, and applicable scope have not been disclosed, and it is uncertain whether other banks will follow. But for companies holding coins deciding on long-term holding, there is now an additional variable to consider: whether the Bitcoin on their books can be converted into operating funds. Among the youth in contemporary China, an increasingly prominent and irreversible phenomenon is occurring: more and more young people who once explored, lost money, or became disheartened in the A-share market, once they truly engage with and enter the world of cryptocurrency trading (commonly known as “coin speculation”), almost never return to the A-share market. They are not simply “switching platforms to speculate,” but rather undergoing a comprehensive reconstruction from institutional experience, power structures, opportunity density, to psychological expectations. The A-share market, as a product of the Web2 era, is essentially a market centered on financing; whereas the Web3 world presents characteristics closer to an “open rights network.” Once this difference is personally experienced, it creates a strong path dependency—not because cryptocurrency necessarily makes people rich overnight, but because it redefines the power relationship between “participants” and the “system.” This article attempts to systematically analyze the deep reasons behind this phenomenon. It is not simply a summary of “gambler’s psychology,” but unfolds across multiple dimensions including institutional design, infrastructure experience, empowerment of rights, opportunity structure, and market ecology. The contraction of opportunities and narrowing of wealth accumulation paths that young people face in the real economy sharply contrast with the high leverage, high liquidity, and composability presented in the Web3 world. When a person truly experiences “being able to immediately collateralize and borrow after buying assets, form liquidity pools to earn yields, and trade global assets with almost no friction,” then returning to the A-share market’s state of “passively holding after purchase, relying on market fluctuations, and constantly guarding against major shareholders’ sell-offs” becomesWhat conditions are needed for OKB to return to $200?
Many people believe OKB will eventually return to $200.
But what’s really worth studying is not whether it can rise, but why the market would be willing to value it at $200?
📊 Let’s do some math:
Currently, OKB is about $122, with a total supply of 21 million tokens.
▪️ $122: correspondsThe Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced an intraday reversal today. It initially plunged sharply due to two major negative factors: rumors that OpenAI's actual annualized revenue is far below market expectations, causing investors to reassess the input-output ratio of AI hardware investments; and rumors of breakthroughs in domestic memory technology, which further shook market confidence in the semiconductor cycle.
Subsequently, funds aggressively pushed prices up, significantly narrowing the sector's losses. Previously deeply fallen stocks like $INTC, $AMD, and $MRVL rose more than 1% against the trend, while $NVDA, $AVGO, and $TSM all turned positive.
On the same trading day and with the same group of stocks, the decline was interpreted as a problem with the AI input-output ratio, while the rise was seen as long-term funds unwilling to exit. The so-called reversal often doesn't mean the news changed, but that the people willing to take over the positions changed.
The leaders in the rally were mainly those that had fallen deeply earlier or offered better value, with $INTC and $MRVL being the most obvious. The main players did not chase the overheated top performers but moved towards undervalued areas like self-developed chips and network connectivity.
This week, $TSM and $ASML will release earnings reports. The early session dive saw risk-averse funds fleeing, but the buying strength at low levels was not weak, with clear actions to buy before earnings at a low price.
In the short term, semiconductors are likely to experience wide fluctuations and will not rush to new highs. The market is shifting from speculating on AI concepts to screening stocks based on earnings reports, with different stocks moving independently within the sector. A market-wide rise does not mean every stock will rise, and intraday rallies do not yet confirm a bottom.The complexity of BTC as an asset has been very high over the past three weeks, influenced not only by macro factors such as interest rate policies and government bond yields, but more so because the price is in a sensitive "bullish" zone, where capital flow and chip structure largely dictate the market. To better understand this "bullish" area, I illustrate with detailed price movements: when the price first surged near 88000, holders of 6m–2y positions in the 88350-89200 range reacted around their average cost line, after which the price retreated. After a clear support was found near 83000, the market began oscillating and exchanging hands within the 83000-85000 range, digesting a large amount of chips. During this process, new institutions and whales indeed entered to establish long positions. Observing through URPD, a new chip accumulation zone formed between 83300-84600. Although this large volume of turnover provided strong support for the next upward move, an equally large scale of profit-taking and the awakening of long-term holders above the price's first approach to the cost line also brought significant selling pressure. The market then made several attempts to digest the upper chips in the 86000-87000 range, but the last attempt on October 7 showed obvious signs of fatigue, making this an ideal point to establish short positions. Subsequently, the market continued to decline after a plunge, falling back to the chip accumulation zone and continuing downward. It is worth noting that the price drop at this stage was still mainly due to spot-side selling and active profit-taking liquidations as well as forced liquidations on the USDT-margined contract side. Illinois wanted to impose a digital asset tax, but got held back by its own people first.
The state government agreed to issue an injunction, postponing enforcement until July 1, 2027. Sounds like a win for the crypto community? Don’t rush.
I took a close look at the timeline: the first motion won’t be submitted until November 2026, and all paperwork won’t be finalized until January 2027. The lawsuit hasn’t even really started; the schedule is already pushed to next year.
To put it plainly, this isn’t a victory; both sides just want to drag it out and get the court to give a ruling quickly. The industry association is filing motions together with the state government, the scene is quite harmonious, but essentially neither side wants to waste resources.
Impact on the market? Basically none. This kind of state-level tax litigation is miles away from affecting coin prices.
But there is one signal worth noting: here in the U.S., even tax collection has to pass through the courts first, indicating that crypto’s compliance path is increasingly resembling a legitimate industry, no longer just executed on a whim.
If you ask me whether this is good or bad news, I’d say it’s neutral, maybe even a bit boring.
The real question is: by the time the ruling comes in 2027, will this tax still be enforceable? What do you think?
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ $HYPE 📊 【BTC Deep V Review】Sharp drop, rebound, and another decline, chips are changing hands
Yesterday BTC formed a deep V pattern: first a bull stampede with 170,000 liquidations totaling $815 million, long positions accounted for $689 million; then the liquidity gap was filled, but with no new funds, it was merely a technical correction; finally, a drop at the close, reflecting that after selling pressure eased, ETF demand remains weak and buying is insufficient.
Three structural signals are worth watching:
1️⃣ Whales and ETF accumulation: whale holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC; spot ETF net inflow this year turned from a net outflow of 83,000 BTC to about 2,300 BTC, indicating long-term chips are changing hands.
2️⃣ Large funds leverage up, retail withdraws: in September, institutional-level USDT borrowing over $10 million increased by 83.3%, while retail borrowing decreased by 17.2%, showing chip concentration.
3️⃣ MSTR premium turning point: Strategy holds 848,250 BTC, worth about $70.6 billion at current prices, but market cap is only about $51.1 billion. The stock-for-coin model no longer enjoys a premium; this cycle's qualitative change deserves attention.
#MarketStructuralSignals A whale is selling $BTC and buying $ETH.
This week, he has sold BTC worth $89,000,000 and bought 36,159 ETH.
As I mentioned earlier, the upside potential of ETH this cycle may far exceed that of BTC.The market summary in one sentence: BTC is still hovering above 83,300, ETH is stuck at the 2,500 mark, and the whole market seems to be waiting for something. Waiting for what? I think it's waiting for the macro environment to give a direction first—the situation around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices above $102, the old script of inflation and interest rate hikes is being replayed, and risk assets are collectively tensing up. The fear index is at 40, not panic, but no one dares to make the first move. Let's first settle the previous round's accounts (the batch of 3 picks at 14:01, checked by direction): ETH short at 2,502.89, closed near 2,498, -0.10%, hit—but the magnitude is pitifully small, this kind of hit can only be called a "lucky guess"; LINK short at 12.875, instead slightly rose 0.09%, missed; ZEC long at 1,249.03, dropped 0.79%, missed. Overall hit rate 33%. Honestly, the luck was average, the problem is not with the signals themselves, but that there is hardly any profit to be made in a sideways market. This round of 3 picks (data as of 18:30, Gate.io perpetual contracts): 1. ETH short @2,500.49, stop loss 2,522.12, take profit 2,464.44. The logic remains unchanged: spot ETH ETF has had net outflows for eight consecutive days, totaling $640 million withdrawn, institutions are structurally exiting. But there is a counterintuitive point here—the funds are flowing out every day, yet the price hasn't collapsed, the 2,500 mark is repeatedly tugged back and forth. Who is taking the dip? To be continued STRK unlocks 127 million tokens monthly for 6 consecutive months, with frequent positive news, yet reasons for easy downward adjustment remain analyzed
Core summary: Unlocking 127 million tokens monthly is equivalent to 6 consecutive rounds of targeted issuance, continuously increasing circulating supply; the positive news belongs to long-term narratives, while the unlocking selling pressure is a tangible supply increase at present. The positive outlook is a future expectatTonight at 20:30, the US will release the September CPI, which is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. Bitcoin is fluctuating around $83,000 (rebounding from 81,435 to 84,158 in 24 hours, but never breaking above 84,000), Ethereum is around 2,500, and SOL and XRP spike only to be pushed back down — the entire market is waiting for a signal, and no one dares to move first. Two numbers decide everything: overall CPI year-over-year (expected 3.6%-3.7%) and core CPI month-over-month (expected 0.2%). The former is partially priced in, but the latter is the real policy switch. The Fed focuses on core inflation excluding energy and food because it reflects demand-side heat. The core month-over-month unexpectedly rose to 0.3% in August, pushing the probability of a rate hike in September from 70% to 87% — that's the power of 0.1%. Stephen Juneau from BofA Securities sets the dividing line: core month-over-month at 0.2% keeps the October rate hike probability around 17%; if it reaches 0.3%, the probability will rise above 30%. Scenario A: core month-over-month ≤ 0.2% BTC is expected to break through the 84,500-86,000 resistance zone (where about $3 billion in sell orders are stacked) and head toward 87,000; ETF outflows pause or even slightly reverse; altcoins follow BTC but with weaker momentum — insufficient order book depth is a major weakness. Scenario B: core month-over-month 0.3% may break the key support at 80,000. The order book depth in this area is only about $33 million, and shallow depth means a "pin" risk; a valid break would then$ENS
I've been holding this in about ENS all day.
So many people rushed in at the start, saying it was the golden domain name of web3, like buying downtown land early on. But what happened? The land is still there, but the brokers keep holding meetings to change the rules. Now there's a proposal for v2, saying old domains don't have to be forcibly moved, which sounds good, but I can't feel happy about it at all.
It's dropped so much, and everyone in the group chat is silent. Those
#DailyOrbit #Goldman Sachs Q3 Earnings Exceed Expectations, US Bank Earnings Show Divergence
The boss has something to say
Goldman Sachs' Q3 earnings exploded. Net revenue was 18.68 billion, earnings per share 17.01, all surpassing expectations. Stock trading revenue increased 72% year-over-year, which was the main driver. Citibank also posted its best Q3 in a decade.
But bank earnings are divergent. JPMorgan's fixed income trading weakness dragged down performance, Wells Fargo's revenue fell short of expectations, and credit costs are still rising. With high market volatility, trading businesses profit, and high interest rates push up interest income, but at the same time suppress bond trading and corporate financing.
My judgment is that investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which lean towards trading, benefit, while traditional banks are under pressure. This indicates money is flowing into capital markets, not into the real economy.
No direct impact on crypto. But Goldman Sachs' large increase in trading revenue indicates market volatility is amplifying, which is not friendly to crypto and tends to cause back-and-forth swings. Plus, the 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.7% and high interest rates are weighing on risk assets.
My long position at 82,800 was stopped out today; I am now flat. I won’t catch a falling knife before CPI is released. Bank earnings are industry validation, not a directional switch. The real determinants of Bitcoin's direction remain inflation data and US Treasury yields.
No chasing highs or panic selling lows; set stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.$BTC BTC holds above 80,000, the real shortage is incremental funds
Bitcoin at $80,000 seems stable, but the funding situation is not easy. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $679 million, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of about $542 million, totaling over $1.2 billion. The price hasn't dropped significantly, but money keeps leaving, and this divergence is more worrisome than a sharp decline.
This indicates institutions are not necessarily panic selling but are more likely actively reducing risk exposure. With the Fed hawkish, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields high, risk appetite is suppressed, and the crypto market lacks fuel for sustained rallies. The key variable remains the October 14 CPI: if inflation exceeds expectations, risk assets may face more pressure; if data is moderate, it could open a rebound window.
So, don't treat every rebound as a bull market restart. The real focus is on two things: whether ETF funds can shift from outflows to inflows, and whether BTC can hold key levels on pullbacks.
Is it bottoming or a downward continuation? The answer is not in sentiment but in the capital flow. Patience is more valuable than predictions.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $STRK’S RALLY FACES A SUPPLY TEST. ⏳
$STRK surged 214% over 30 days but has now dropped around 16% in the past 24 hours.
On Oct. 15, another 127M STRK tokens unlock: 🔹 66.61M for early contributors 🔹 60.39M for investors
That’s about 1.3% of total supply becoming available, not an automatic sell-off.
The big question now: Can demand absorb the potential new supply?
#DailyOrbit $BTC 🔥 Evening Report
Last night the market experienced a sharp drop, with BTC and ETH both facing significant selling pressure, but short-term funds started to flow back today. The question is whether this rebound can continue; tonight's CPI is crucial.
From the capital flow perspective, $BTC saw a net spot inflow of $13.73 million in the past hour, and $ETH had a net inflow of $13.27 million, indicating that short-term buying has indeed begun. However, the 4-hour and 24-hour data remain weak, showing that the previous selling pressure has not been fully absorbed. $SOL's situation is even weaker, with spot funds still showing net outflows over 1-hour, 4-hour, and 24-hour periods, and no obvious improvement yet.
Tonight, the US will release the September CPI, with market expectations of a 3.6% year-over-year increase and a 0.6% month-over-month rise. If the data exceeds expectations, inflationary pressure may continue to push up interest rate expectations; if it falls short, there may be a chance to give risk assets some breathing room.
I will focus on three signals: whether BTC's rebound has sustained buying, whether ETH can hold steady after a pullback, and whether $SOL's capital flow can turn from negative to positive.
Short-term capital inflow is a positive signal, but we are still one step away from a trend reversal. How the market moves after tonight's data release is the key.🔥 $xTSM $TSM TSMC Q3 revenue hits a record high, but the real test starts tomorrow!
How crazy is the demand for AI chips? TSMC has already given the answer.
📊 Latest data:
• Q3 revenue: 1.49 trillion NTD, up 50% year-over-year
• September revenue: 511.86 billion NTD, up 54.6% year-over-year
• Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters: 3.9 trillion NTD, up 41.1% year-over-year
Revenue exceeding expectations indicates that AI chip demand remains strong. But what truly determines the next move in the stock price is profitability and future guidance.
Why? Three key points:
1️⃣ AI demand remains the core engine.
Customers like Nvidia are driving TSMC’s continuous growth with their demand for advanced processes and advanced packaging.
2️⃣ Revenue growth does not equal proportional profit growth.
The market expects Q3 net profit to grow about 65% year-over-year, but costs of advanced processes, overseas factory investments, and exchange rates may all impact profit margins.
3️⃣ The real highlight is future guidance.
TSMC previously forecasted a Q3 gross margin of 65%–67%. If actual performance exceeds expectations and the full-year revenue growth guidance is raised, it could further strengthen the bullish logic on the AI industry chain.
My judgment: The record-high revenue already proves strong demand, but whether the stock price can continue to rise depends on whether the earnings report can surpass the market’s already priced-in expectations. #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 On-chain data reveals a counterintuitive truth: while retail investors panic over floating losses, a whale known as "Maji" is building a continuous cash flow machine using three high-leverage positions in opposite directions. His most glaring floating loss reaches 4.86 million, but what truly deserves analysis is not the loss itself, but the funding rates working in his favor. First, consider the most counterintuitive part. The $BTC short position is leveraged 40x with 243 contracts, showing a floating profit of 260,000, but over 50,000 has been paid in funding fees—this is a "machine that slowly prints money as long as there is no sharp price surge." On the other side, the $ETH long position is leveraged 25x with 8,700 contracts, entry price 2546, floating loss of 400,000, betting on ecosystem recovery, but funding fees continuously drain capital, and time is not on his side. The most dramatic is the HYPE short: the 4.86 million floating loss grabs attention, yet it has accumulated over 1 million in funding fees; under 5x leverage, the crowded shorts have become a cash machine, as long as the price doesn't crash, cash flow continues. The three-pronged strategy has distinct roles: short $BTC to profit from volatility, long $ETH to bet on recovery, short HYPE to capitalize on sentiment spreads. But the essence of high leverage remains—the whale can withstand floating losses, while ordinary traders may be liquidated first💥. The real decisive factor lies in the $BTC direction: once the market moves into a one-sided trend, this structure will face a stress test. A judgment worth remembering: survival is always more important than guessing the right direction🧠. Funding rates are the invisible engine of this strategy and also its most vulnerable point—when rates reverse, all three machines may shut down simultaneously.#France Advances Proposal for Crypto Self-Custody Reporting
[Old Leek Observation] France's crypto regulation sparks controversy again: Do you have to report your own wallet to regulators?
The crypto industry has always upheld a core principle: assets are kept in wallets controlled by oneself, with private keys held personally. But as regulations become more detailed, a practical issue grows more prominent—when assets don’t go through centralized exchanges, how can regulators track the flow of funds?
Recent discussions on crypto asset regulation in France have once again put wallet reporting and asset transparency in the spotlight.
However, let’s clarify the facts first: France already requires reporting for some overseas crypto accounts, and service providers may have obligations to report transaction information; this does not mean the government currently requires everyone to register all self-custody wallets. It still needs to be confirmed which specific proposal the so-called "advancement of self-custody reporting" actually refers to.
If future rules extend to wallets controlled by individuals’ private keys, the controversy will be more than just filling out an extra form. Regulators aim to increase tax transparency and prevent illicit fund flows, while users will be concerned about personal privacy, the scope of reporting, and the potential consequences of linking wallet addresses to real identities.
For ordinary holders, the most important thing is not to assume the self-custody era is over just by seeing the headline, but to clearly distinguish: which accounts are legally required to report, which information service providers report, and what obligations individuals actually bear. $BTC $ETH $SOL STRK unlocks 127 million tokens monthly for 6 consecutive months, with frequent positive news, yet reasons for easy downward adjustment remain analyzed
Core summary: Unlocking 127 million tokens monthly is equivalent to 6 consecutive rounds of targeted issuance, continuously increasing circulating supply; the positive news belongs to long-term narratives, while the unlocking selling pressure is a tangible supply increase at present. The positive outlook is a future expectation, while saleUnderstanding the deep V-shaped BTC volatility logic from yesterday makes everything clear!
Yesterday's deep V-shaped BTC movement seemed thrilling but was actually logically clear. Intraday, a rapid drop was triggered by concentrated long liquidations, with over 170,000 people liquidated, and long position liquidations accounting for the vast majority, causing the market to instantly panic. Then, as liquidity replenished, the market rebounded, but it must be clear that this rebound was only a technical correction without new capital inflows, and not a signal of a trend reversal. The subsequent decline was mainly due to continued weakness in institutional ETF buying, lacking effective support.
Currently, the market shows three core structural changes: First, top whales continue to accumulate coins, with total holdings steadily increasing, and ETF funds shifting from net outflows to slight net inflows, quietly concentrating long-term chips; Second, the market capital structure is completely diverging, with institutional funds leveraging against the trend while retail investors continue to panic exit, accelerating chip exchanges; Third, macro uncertainty makes short-term trends more prone to volatile shakeouts rather than one-sided breakouts.
In the face of this structural divergence, blindly chasing highs or selling lows easily leads to being "hit from both sides." Instead of being led by short-term fluctuations, it is better to focus on two core indicators: whale holdings and ETF fund flows. When chips continue to concentrate in long-term holders and institutional funds gradually recover, that is the real signal worth positioning for. Until then, patience and maintaining your own rhythm are more important than guessing short-term ups and downs. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Core Bull-Bear Logic
Dimension 📈 Bullish Signals 📉 Bearish Risks
Technical 82,972 support effective; resistance encountered after surging to $83,709; MACD red bars shrinking; moving averages in bearish alignment
Capital ETF net inflow of $176 million yesterday; exchange holdings dropped to 2.67 million units; Strategy continues to increase holdings; previous week saw ETF net outflow of $679 million; ETH ETF outflows for 9 consecutive days
Macro Williams rules out rate hikes in 2027; October rate hike probability about 18%-20%; CPI exceeding expectations probability not low; December rate hike probability about 70%
Institutions Saylor clearly states "the bull market has arrived," target 100,000; Wintermute warns Bitcoin remains sensitive to US stock volatility, downside risk is relatively high
Sentiment Fear & Greed Index at 63 (Greed), market not in extreme panic; forecast market bets probability of falling to $80,000 within October about 56% $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $BTC
What is still missing for BTC's rebound?
The triple test of CPI, real interest rates, and spot buying
The key to BTC's rebound is not just whether CPI cools down,
but whether inflation data can lower real interest rates and ultimately translate into sustained spot buying.
① CPI below expectations opens space for monetary policy shift;
② Real interest rates fall, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC;
③ Continuous net inflow of ETF funds proves that incremental capital is truly entering the market.
Forward-looking judgment: If favorable CPI does not lead to a decline in real interest rates and a return of spot funds, the rebound is more likely a short-term sentiment repair;
Only when macro pressure eases and spot accumulation continues can BTC hope to move from an oversold rebound to a trend reversal.
The real signal is to see if there is new capital buying behind the rise.#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
Brothers, Brother Ci speaks ahead of time. At 8:30 tonight, the September CPI will be released, don't rush to bet on the direction.
Focus on the core, not the overall. The overall year-on-year expectation rose from 3.4% to 3.6%-3.7%, largely contributed by oil prices; the core month-on-month may drop from 0.3% to 0.2%. If the core cools down, it means inflation hasn't spread, and the expectation to pause rate hikes will be stronger; if the core also exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will immediately rise.
Officials are still arguing. Harker, Williams, and Collins all said there might be another hike this year, but no one is clear about October. CME shows: about 77% chance of no change, about 23% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Officials are hawkish, market is dovish, this gap is the source of tonight's volatility.
BTC is fluctuating around 82,000, down slightly 0.15% in 24 hours, direction undecided. If the core is mild and the dollar and US bonds fall back, look for a rebound at 83,500-84,500; if the core is strong, first look at support at 81,500-82,000, break that and look at 80,000. Control positions before the data, wait for it to land before following funds.
⚠️ The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice, the market is volatile, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BTC $BTC $ETH $XAU 🪤🪤🪤
After the last big nonfarm payrolls pump and dump, it was obvious 📉📉
Wall Street's attitude is clear—they're not buying it.
Bitcoin also dropped below support right after another pump and dump,
then started moving sideways~🥱🥱
However, tonight will most likely set the direction.
The CPI released at 8:30 PM tonight
will determine whether the Fed can reignite rate hike expectations 🆘🆘
Personally, I think tonight's data will be close to expectations; the market has already accepted that inflation has risen compared to last month~
If it exceeds expectations, even just a little, it would be quite bearish!
As for being below expectations, I don't think that's possible, since the US-Iran conflict keeps oil prices quite high, so inflation can't come down!
Also, Mr. Trump said he wouldn't escalate attacks on Iran before the midterms?
I think he'll break that promise; Iran is currently strengthening its defense systems during the ceasefire, so maybe, at any moment, they'll exchange heavy rocket fire again 🌚🌚
Regarding the midterms, I think Trump will most likely fail; his approval rating is already below the minimum threshold!
Additionally, yesterday's deep V-shaped rebound was caused by the chain reaction from the Korean index crash, combined with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling to support levels, triggering massive short position take-profits and reverse buying, which pushed the market back up to the previous drop point—there's nothing else to do~
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ Gold and Bitcoin had another dull day, moving sideways with no decent direction all day. Just at this time, the market started to press down again, which is a bit frustrating to watch.
There is a big event tonight—the CPI data release. I reviewed the report from CICC; the market expectations and current pricing are actually quite close, meaning tonight's data is unlikely to be too surprising. What the capital market fears most is never bad news, but uncertainty. Before the data is released, funds hold back and no one dares to move; once it lands, regardless of good or bad, the boot drops and the market will move accordingly. In fact, bad news is not that scary then.
From a trading perspective, a slight drop in advance might not be a bad thing. Panic selling comes out first, so the selling pressure when the data is released tonight will be smaller, releasing some pressure. The worry is if the market stubbornly holds during the day and then a big bearish candle crashes down right after the data release—that would be painful.
One thing to be cautious about: altcoins are weakening again. Bitcoin and gold are just sideways, but altcoins have already dropped, indicating funds are shrinking into core assets and risk appetite is cooling. At times like this, don't rush to buy altcoins; wait to see what the CPI says tonight, confirm the direction before acting, and keep some bullets in hand—it’s always more comfortable than being fully exposed and taking hits.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BTC's current market situation is very similar to that of 2022; it feels like the low point should be around March next year STRK’S RALLY HAS A CALENDAR PROBLEM. ⏳
$STRK gained 214% in 30 days. Now it’s down roughly 16% in 24 hours.
Tomorrow, Oct. 15, another 127 MILLION STRK unlock:
🔹 66.61M for early contributors
🔹 60.39M for investors
That’s approximately 1.3% of total supply becoming unlocked—not 127M tokens automatically sold.
The rally was spectacular. The next test is whether demand absorbs potential new supply.
#STRK #Starknet #TokenUnlock #DailyOrbit Sideways for three days waiting for CPI, what I see is the bears closing the net
BTC has been sideways at 83400 for a whole day, with volatility narrowing. The comment section is again shouting "Can't fall anymore, bad news is fully priced in, it will rally directly."
This kind of low-volume sideways movement is never a bottom; it's a buildup before a trend change, and tonight the direction is most likely down.
At 8:30, CPI is expected year-on-year at 3.6%-3.7%, up from the previous 3.4%, and month-on-month 0.6%, the largest in five months. The key is not how bad the data is, but that the bulls have already priced in "bad news fully priced, rate cuts coming" — the price is sideways, priced for easing expectations. Once the data lands, with 3.7% inflation in front of us and October rate cuts falling through, the mismatch between expectations and reality means even meeting expectations is bad news, let alone exceeding them.
$BTC
Above 83400, between 84800 and 85600 lies the trapped positions from recent failed rallies, so rebounds are all resistance; breaking below 82200 will sweep the stop-loss orders accumulated over three days of sideways movement, and 80000 is just the first stop. The longer the sideways, the deeper the fall.
$ETH
2500 is even weaker, unable to produce a decent rebound. Once BTC breaks down, ETH will first look at 2450, then 2400; don't hold onto illusions.
My thinking is clear: don't chase shorts before the data, wait for the bulls' last counterattack after the data lands, pushing to resistance levels — that is the comfortable entry point for shorts.
The rate cut story has been told for a month; tonight let the data speak.
The above is only market observation and does not constitute trading advice September CPI will be released tonight at 8:30. Oil prices are stuck around $100, and the overall CPI is basically expected to rise, with the market anticipating about 3.7%. The real focus is on the core CPI—if it can't be contained, a rate hike in December is inevitable. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 5.2%, so money just sitting there earns that yield; not many are willing to take risks in the crypto space.
BTC is currently at 84,000, hovering around this level for the past couple of days. My judgment is that once the data comes out, it will first drop a bit. The 82,000 area is the first support level to catch it; if it dips and recovers, it's fine, but if it can't hold, it will need to find support lower down.
Reduce positions before the data release; the drop will actually be a good entry point, so don't follow the crowd out.
$BTC#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
US storage chip and data storage stocks continued to decline, with the market reassessing competition in China, but Changxin's R&D progress does not yet equate to mass production or market share changes. Reuters reported on October 13 in the US Eastern morning session that Micron fell about 4.5%, SanDisk about 4.3%; these are intraday figures, not closing prices. Changxin stated that the fifth-generation DRAM platform began mass production in September; additionally, according to media citing officials, progress has been made on the higher-density 4F² architecture, while server DDR5 products are still in planning. Micron mainly focuses on DRAM, SanDisk primarily on NAND flash, so the competitive impact paths differ; the simultaneous decline may also reflect semiconductor valuation and AI spending concerns. Subsequent observations will focus on Changxin's product yield, shipment volume, customer validation, and how Micron and SanDisk's financial reports explain pricing and demand.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.Price is falling, but the bulls haven't left yet.
What has changed? ETH quickly dropped from 2,507 to 2,481 in the past hour, a decline of 1.07%, with a significant increase in trading volume. However, the proportion of long positions on the contract side remains as high as 73.5%, and the funding rate stays positive at 0.0031%, meaning the bulls are still paying to hold their positions.
Why is this worth noting? The price is declining, but the crowding of long positions hasn't decreased. In the past 24 hours, ETH long liquidations totaled 10.45 million, and short liquidations totaled 10.13 million, almost balanced. Meanwhile, whales are offloading — an institution liquidated 52,000 ETH at an average price of 2,632, profiting 24.49 million; another OG address just deposited 6,369 ETH to Kraken.
Which observation is more supported? It supports the coexistence of "crowded longs and spot selling pressure." But ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 24.83 million yesterday, ending 10 consecutive days of net outflows, with Grayscale Mini ETH alone accounting for 16.72 million. ETFs are receiving inflows, whales are selling, and bulls with leverage haven't left.
Below 2,388 there is a 946 million long liquidation zone, above 2,636 there is a 1.047 billion short liquidation zone. Spot is receiving, whales are running, bulls are holding — with tonight's CPI release, which side will move first? $ETH Price is falling, yet shorts continue to pay.
What has changed? BTC dropped from 83,449 to 83,133 in the past hour, breaking below the Bollinger lower band at 83,148, currently testing support at 83,100. However, the funding rate has fallen to -0.0029%, meaning shorts are still paying to hold their positions.
Why is this noteworthy? The price is declining, but the funding rate is negative, indicating shorts are actively increasing their positions during the drop. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations totaled 11.15 million, exceeding long liquidations of 8.36 million. Contract open interest rose 11.14% in 24 hours to 61.75 billion, with leverage rapidly rebuilding.
Which observation does this support more? It supports the "long-short standoff amid intensified short crowding" scenario. Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 176 million yesterday, with FBTC alone accounting for 103 million, indicating spot funds are stepping in. Shorts increasing positions and ETF inflows form a standoff, both sides awaiting tonight's CPI.
CPI expectations rose year-over-year to 3.6%. 83,300 is the watershed level; a break below would test 82,500. Shorts are adding positions, ETFs are absorbing, and at the moment CPI is released—who will break first? $BTC The difference in the way they fall is the real point worth watching. Even though the market is all green, why do some coins "rise first then fall," while others "just keep going down"? When I was watching the order books of WLD and FIL yesterday, I actually felt a bit chilled inside. Not the kind of panic chill, but the kind of "oh, so this is how the chips are changing hands" chill. WLD dropped 9.88% yesterday and then fell another 3.21% today, with the direction completely consistent over two days. FIL, on the other hand, rose 3.27% yesterday but gave back 3.88% today, almost standing still over two days, just tracing an arc of rising then falling. Here's a detail many people overlook: the drop percentages are calculated separately for each day. So FIL looks like it "also fell today," but it actually didn't bleed continuously; it was first pushed up, then let down. WLD, however, truly fell two days in a row, with a very unified direction. So what exactly is the market trading? I think it's trading "who's in a hurry to leave." Both WLD and FIL have trading volumes still above 100M, indicating chips are indeed changing hands, with some selling and some buying. But TRUMP only fell 1.35% today, with volume at just 65M — it fell less not because someone was rushing to buy, but because no one was in a hurry to move at all. A drop on shrinking volume and a drop on expanding volume reflect completely different emotional temperatures behind them. From the perspective of capital preference, this looks more like a phase of divergence rather than a start or continuation. Varieties with volume-driven consecutive drops indicate sellers still have strength; those with slight drops on shrinking volume might instead be temporarily forgotten. What really needs to be warned about is⚖️ Boss Eleven VS Brother Maji, a comparison of two top-level trading strategies.
Boss Eleven: High-frequency swing trading, quick in and out. Nearly 30-day win rate of 78%, total return +531%. Both BTC and ETH are fully long with 50x leverage, decisively stop loss and exit when wrong (BTC lost 27,000U, ETH lost 12,000U), never holding losing positions. $BTC
Brother Maji: Heavy position hedging (BTC short + ETH long), long-term holding with strong endurance, betting on market divergence, often accompanied by huge floating losses and volatility.
Neither model is absolutely good or bad: the former emphasizes risk control and turnover, the latter bets on trend and patience. Ordinary traders should never blindly copy high leverage! $ETH
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Suddenly understand why Warren Buffett only holds short-term Treasury bonds.
The 20-year US Treasury yield reaching 6% could trigger a sell-off equivalent to $110 billion.
Right now it's at 5.68%.
A difference of 0.32 percentage points.
The key is not the yield, but the futures.
Futures can choose which bond to deliver.
When yields rise, the 20-year bond immediately becomes the cheapest.
So hedging institutions start selling to lock in exposure.
When more people sell, prices fall.
Prices fall, yields rise even more.
More people sell.
This is not a one-time sell-off, but a self-reinforcing loop.
Yesterday at the supermarket, I saw an AI shopping assistant say "Welcome" three times, but later realized it wasn’t calling me. Some signals are like that — they seem to be calling you, but are actually aimed at others.
Why not focus on the 10-year?
Because the 20-year is more sensitive. If interest rates rise by 1%, it falls more, so it breaks first.
Stocks are pressured in two ways:
Treasuries give you 5%+ risk-free;
Corporate borrowing becomes more expensive. The expensive batch of tech stocks can’t hold up first.
There’s an even earlier signal.
When the 10-year hits 5.9%, fund managers will give up on stocks. It’s currently at 5.22%.
This number is more important to watch than 6%, because it’s not theoretical, it’s behavioral.
But I want to say something contrary.
Neither of these numbers is a death line.
Interest rates are still on the way up, prices can fall first.
The most dangerous thing is not rates hitting 6%, but everyone still waiting for 6%. September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30. The overall year-on-year is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, the largest rise in nearly 5 months. The rebound in energy prices is the main reason.
Core CPI is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, slightly lower than last month's 0.3%.
This is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. The market currently only prices in about a 17% chance of a rate hike, whereas when the core month-on-month was 0.3% last month, the probability once surged to 70%, indicating that the market is betting on a "one-time recalibration" rather than a new round of tightening.
So tonight, there is only one number to watch: if the core month-on-month holds at 0.2%, it is very likely to stay put; if it jumps to 0.3%, the October meeting will immediately become tense. PPI on Thursday will add more pressure.
$BTC $ETHRight now, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are playing dead, all waiting for the US September CPI data. August inflation was 3.4%, with the market expecting it to rise to 3.6% in September, driven by oil prices. However, the core CPI is only 2.5%. The midterm elections are in November, and historically, the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in the month before an election. This CPI report is the litmus test for rate hike expectations. Ethereum is consolidating above 2500; with moderate core inflation, this consolidation can continue; if it spikes, it will face pressure first. Let's wait for tonight's data release. #SeptemberCPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution $BTC fell 3.22% across the entire market in 24 hours, yet the top gainers list is dominated by a series of small sectors with a maximum market cap of only $130 million. Farcaster, Clanker, and Launchpad point to the same trend: on-chain social plus one-click token issuance has been revived for speculation, and Pre-IPO tokenization is also a fresh target sought by the same group. Where is the money coming from? Look at stablecoins. USDT market cap dropped 0.02% in 24 hours, with no new issuance and no new funds entering OTC. The fear and greed index has fallen from 71 a week ago to 62, indicating sentiment is retreating, and the heat is concentrated only in a few small pools. This is a relocation of existing funds, moving from mainstream to small caps seeking elasticity. My judgment is that this rotation won't last long; it is short-term speculation within a weak market, not yet a season for altcoins. The end signal is seen in the Farcaster and Clanker sectors: their 24-hour gains have both turned negative, and the top of the leaderboard has changed themes, marking the end of this round. We need to wait for USDT market cap to turn to new issuance and the fear and greed index to return above 71 before new money can take over. In the market, Bitcoin is still oscillating above support. CPI data will be released tonight, and the market may experience significant volatility, so caution is needed. The larger trend remains in a corrective phase, with right-side confirmation ongoing, and structural support still above 75,000. U.S. Treasury yields have declined and adjusted over the past two days, which has eased upward pressure on U.S. stocks and Bitcoin. With the midterm elections approaching, asset performance generally tends to be less favorable at this time.
On a smaller scale, Bitcoin is also moving on the right side, confirming support above 81,000. It's difficult to break higher as there is a lot of trapped supply above. To initiate a second upward move, a deep pullback is needed first. Patience.#Rebound without volume, has the capital pattern really shifted? The data gives a mixed answer.
On October 13, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $21.47 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity products contributing the main buying, ending the continuous outflow state. The capital direction showed a turning point, but the overall volume was small, belonging to institutional tentative absorption. Ethereum simultaneously turned positive, with only $10,100 inflow, after ten consecutive trading days of continuous outflow, the selling pressure temporarily stopped, and the increment is almost negligible. Meanwhile, SOL funds continued to bleed, with large net outflows for two consecutive days, indicating the previously expected capital resilience does not exist.
Currently, the market only has a slight partial capital return and has not welcomed large-scale incremental entry. The ETF capital flow after the U.S. stock market opens tonight is the key to verifying whether this round of recovery can continue. 84000 is an important resistance level. If capital inflow can continue, it is expected to attempt to break through this position; if buying quickly fades, this small recovery rally will stop here.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI night, don't just focus on the numbers
Tonight's CPI, the real suspense isn't about the year-over-year percentage points, but that funds have long since gone their separate ways.
$BTC: On-chain support, institutions hesitant.
Coinbase premium turns negative, institutions are cashing out; but the number of addresses holding 100–1000 coins on-chain hits a new high, with whales buying over 80,000 coins in three weeks. There's support at the bottom, but chasing highs is weak. If core CPI is 0.2%, BTC could reach 84,000–85,000; if 0.3%, the 81,000 support will be further tested.
$ETH: Shorts paying the price, waiting for ETF turnaround.
Spot ETFs saw outflows exceeding 500 million last week, BlackRock reduced nearly 500 million. But leverage ratio dropped to a seven-month low, funding rates turned negative, raising short position costs. If support holds, short covering could trigger a rebound; the premise is ETF stops bleeding first, which hasn't happened yet.
Gold: Speculation retreats, allocation advances.
Futures longs withdraw, but gold ETFs continue to attract funds, with record net inflows in Q3; central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, September's increase is the largest this year.
Different buyers, different patience: BTC relies on whales, gold on central banks. Don't bet on data, bet on fund divergence. BTC waits for institutions to return, ETH waits for ETFs to stop bleeding, gold has solid logic underpinning it.
#SeptemberCPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution
#BTC spot ETF outflows again, can institutional buying warm up?
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardIn the past week, BTC fell by 3.82%, but gold, which has always been considered a safe-haven asset, also dropped by 0.96%. Both "safe-haven assets" weakened simultaneously—where exactly did the money go? Let's start with the news. Today's three data points: BTC currently at $82,444.3 (down 3.82% over the past week), gold futures at $4,176.0 (down 0.96% intraday, spot at $4,159.90), and the US Dollar Index at 102.49 (down 0.09% intraday); meanwhile, US spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of approximately $696.8 million over the last 5 trading days. Notably, the dollar has not strengthened significantly, but both gold and BTC are falling—this indicates that the selling pressure is not coming from the "dollar appreciation" channel. Now, looking at the impact on capital. The price drivers for gold and BTC are completely different: gold's core buying comes from central bank gold purchases, real interest rates, and safe-haven demand; BTC's core marginal buying comes from spot ETFs and risk budgets. When both decline simultaneously, it usually means one of two things: either the market is concentrating on liquidity withdrawal (cash demand rises, and almost all assets are sold), or gold is taking profits after a prior rise, while BTC is passively deleveraging. Currently, the situation is closer to the second scenario—gold has retreated from above $4,300, while BTC is weakening amid accelerating ETF net outflows. Implications for BTC: this shows that the "safe-haven narrative" did not support BTC this time. The logic over the past few months was that "gold and BTC are both inflation-hedge assets," but when risk budgets contract, the market andRegarding the current continuous decline of $SNDK, my personal view is that concerns are triggered by domestic storage competition, but a technological breakthrough does not mean immediate large-scale commercialization, nor does it directly replace SanDisk's products. Moreover, its own fundamentals are also strong, including $MU, coupled with increased volatility caused by CPI and interest rate expectations putting pressure on tech stocks. These are all within expectations. At that time, making this trade was indeed impulsive, leading to this mysterious operation. Next, I will watch whether its support level at 1400 will be broken, followed by an average price pull-up. You can also wait for the earnings report data on the 29th at the end of the month to make a choice. Those trapped in the position, don't be afraid. I personally believe SanDisk's earnings data will exceed high expectations. This is my personal opinion! For reference only #BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying rebound?
The boss has something to say
BTC spot ETF funds weakened again. On October 9, there was an inflow of 21.13 million, but by October 12, there was a net outflow of 65.4 million, all from BlackRock IBIT, with the other 11 products unchanged. Previously, from October 7 to 8, there was a cumulative outflow of 731 million. ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of 85.4 million on the same day, with the two product types totaling a net outflow of 151 million in one day.
I believe institutional buying is unlikely to rebound in the short term. The reason is that the outflow is concentrated in IBIT, indicating it is not a widespread reduction but redemption pressure on a single product. ETH is weaker, with continuous outflows and inherently insufficient buying power.
My long position at 82,800 was stopped out today; I am now flat waiting for CPI. No chasing highs or panic selling; I won’t catch a falling knife before the direction is clear. The CPI release will show inflation and interest rate expectations; if the data is hawkish, ETF redemptions may continue. If dovish, funds may have a chance to flow back.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Short term looks volatile, mid-term waiting for signals. Set stop losses properly, don’t hold on.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.#Strive增持3311枚BTC，高息融资能否持续？
Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST) purchased 3,311 BTC at an average price of about $84,500 between October 5 and 9, raising its holdings to 32,773 BTC, valued at approximately $2.7 billion. This is the largest single increase since the Semler merger in January.
The key lies in the source of funds. Strive mainly relies on SATA perpetual preferred stock financing, currently yielding 13%-14%, and has launched a new class of SATS preferred stock aiming to raise $500 million with a fixed dividend rate of 15%, subordinated to SATA.
The core contradiction is: financing costs are rigid, Bitcoin returns are not. Dividends of 13%-15% must be paid in cash. The company currently holds about $310 million in cash, but if all SATS are issued, the annual dividend obligation alone would reach $75 million.
More worrisome is the dilution effect. Total holdings grew by 11.2%, but the coin amount per common share increased by only 1.7%—most of the growth was diluted by the new preferred stock.
Whether the flywheel can continue depends on two conditions: Bitcoin’s long-term compound returns remain stably above 13%-15%, and the stock trading premium is maintained. Once the premium narrows and issuance becomes more expensive, the pace of buying coins slows, and the market compresses the premium again—this is the natural reflexivity of treasury companies.$BTC $ETH $ZEC Brother Maji's "BTC short + ETH long + HYPE short" combination looks like a hedge on the surface, but in essence, it's still a high-leverage tough hold. The BTC short position's profit expanding indicates the short-term bearish judgment hit the rhythm; however, the HYPE short position has an unrealized loss exceeding four million, barely surviving on funding fees. If the short squeeze continues, the risk will rapidly escalate. The ETH long position is still at a loss, and its direction conflictsSaylor said Bitcoin will return above 100,000
He said this on Bloomberg TV.
The exact words were that the bull market has just begun.
His exact words were:
He said the coin price bottomed slightly below 60,000.
In the coming years, it will rise 20% to 30% annually.
In plain language:
The premise of this statement is that someone keeps buying.
He plans to issue more credit securities to buy.
MSCI will decide something this Friday.
They might remove Strategy from the global index.
If removed, the money tracking the index will have to sell passively.
A company that relies on issuing bonds to buy coins,
if kicked out of the index, its financing costs will rise.
This is more worth watching than short-term coin price fluctuations.
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover?
$BTCLet's talk about tonight's CPI and give partners a brief overview!
First, tonight's scenario is the opposite of the past two years: the Federal Reserve is not cutting rates but raising them — on September 16, it just raised by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%.
Unanimously approved, Williams and Collins are still signaling another rate hike within the year. The logic is not "low inflation → rate cut → rally," but "high inflation → tightening → pressure on the crypto market."
Market consensus: overall CPI month-over-month 0.4% → 0.6%, year-over-year 3.4% → 3.6%-3.7%, driven by gasoline (September average price $4.33/gallon at a record high), fully priced in. The only decisive factor is core CPI month-over-month, expected at 0.2%, with institutions divided between 0.16%-0.24%.
≤0.2% would confirm a pause in October and cool down rate hike expectations for December; ≥0.3% would indicate energy costs passing through to airfare and bring October rate hikes back on the table.
BTC current price 83,200-83,600, down 34% from the all-time high, with three concerns: ETF net outflow about $450 million in October, ETH outflows for 9-10 consecutive days;
10-year US Treasury yield at 5.2%-5.3%, DXY at 102.5 hitting an 18-month high; correlation with S&P at 81%, tonight ASML and tomorrow TSMC will simultaneously test AI sentiment.
Asymmetric odds: 45% probability matches expectations but already priced in, no profit; softer outcome (20%) is the real positive, targeting 84,000-87,400 short squeeze zone;
Above expectations (25%) targets 82,218-81,300; significantly higher (10%) breaks 80,100 triggering about $600 million long liquidation at 79,269.
Timing: at 20:30, avoid trading during the first three minutes of spikes; from 20:35-21:00 watch US Treasury and DXY to set direction; 21:30 US stock market open sets the tone. Followed by PPI, Fed's Waller speech, and FOMC on October 27-28.
The biggest risk is not the data but many still using the old rate cut script to go long. Position management takes priority over directional judgment. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
Overall CPI: MoM +0.6%, YoY 3.6% (previous 3.4%, mainly due to rising oil prices)
• Core CPI (excluding energy and food, more focused on by the Fed): MoM +0.2%, YoY 2.5% (previous YoY 2.4%)
Hawkish (Collins, Barkin, Harker)
Viewpoint: Energy price increases carry transmission risks; AI-related investments, transportation, accommodation, and service prices are sticky; inflation decline is not solid enough, another 25bp hike is necessary before year-end to prevent inflation rebound.
In short: Better to hike once more to avoid inflation becoming entrenched again.
Neutral (represented by Williams)
Viewpoint: Acceptable to have one more hike this year, but it depends on core services; should not be led by one-off supply shocks like oil prices; does not support consecutive hikes, nor a sustained hiking cycle; decisions should be based on subsequent data series, not a single month’s CPI.
Implied dovish logic (market trading benchmark)
Current CME FedWatch pricing: about 77% probability of no change in October, meaning the mainstream expectation is likely to hold steady in October, keeping the possibility of a hike in December.
Underlying understanding: If price increases are purely gasoline-related, it is an external supply shock, not overheating domestic demand, so immediate hikes may not be necessary; but if core CPI, housing, and core services rise above expectations, it will be interpreted as endogenous inflation, strengthening hawkish influence. $ETH $BTC