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This guy shorted the entire AI sector and made 10 million USD profit in the last 7 days
But going long on Bitcoin $BTC ate up half of his short position profits
Notably, he also opened another $STRK long positionThe domestic market is neutral to slightly bullish, but both indices opened lower, dragged down by the semiconductor sector. SPY is below 770.43; today is a confirmation day—if it closes below and fails to recover, it will break down, with support at 760.28 holding the daily trend unchanged; QQQ is below 734.08, with support at 706.58.
Data: September PPI month-over-month at 1.3% (expected 0.5%), core at 0.7% (expected 0.3%), combined with yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI; retail sales month-over-month at 0.8% (expected 0.3%). The data pushes up rate hike expectations, but U.S. Treasury yields are moving inversely downward.
Sectors: Semiconductors, storage, optical communications, and crypto are pulling back; XLP/XLV and gold are strengthening, Apple and software are holding up, NOW is uniquely strong and can hold until it breaks down. Funds are shifting to defense, overall bearish. Divergence remains, with short covering and rotation; need to watch the strength and sustainability.#Ten-day giant whale shrinkage, high leverage positions approaching liquidation line
$36,572,500 is the total cumulative loss of this account in this round, a figure that directly reflects the devastating impact brought by high leverage. Another $4,435,600 was lost in the past seven days, and the current account only has $279,800 in assets left, holding 2,100 ETH long positions with a position value of $5,074,400 and an average opening price of $2,515.81.
This position was originally set with 25x full margin leverage, but the actual account leverage shows 36.17x. The current unrealized loss is $208,900, with cumulative funding fees consumed amounting to $1,362,700. The liquidation price is at $2,397.51, and the available margin has already been depleted. The huge long position is still holding on, but the account has almost no buffer funds, shrinking rapidly from a giant whale within ten days.
Leverage can amplify profits but also accelerate account demise. Many people follow the giant whale's moves to enter the market, but the core survival logic of contract trading is always position management. Where are your current pending orders and stop-loss points set?
$ETH $BTC $SOL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit surged 68.7% to a new high, once again proving the extremely strong demand for AI. The market correction triggered by inflation is purely a pullback to pick up those who missed out.
Core assets like Micron, with capacity shortages extending to 2029, are best bought in batches when prices fall below 900.
Finding reasons when prices rise and excuses when they fall is meaningless; the essence of this tech stock decline is deleveraging.
MU and SNDK rose too fast earlier; their drop is a healthy shakeout of speculative holdings. You can see NBIS, which relies purely on concepts, has fallen sharply, while INTC and the US tech giants backed by solid businesses remain resilient. The competition behind this is about share structure and business strength.
Don't treat memory as a cyclical stock that traps investors anytime. Musk has already made it clear that robots and AI will drive huge demand for memory, and capacity won't catch up until 2029.
MU has steadily returned to 1100 since August, consolidating a lot of old money, which is completely different from the explosive rally earlier this year. Now, opportunities at 880, 860, and 840 must be seized. Inflation rebounds, consumption remains resilient, employment growth slows, and the Federal Reserve's easing space is compressed.
Regarding the Federal Reserve: a pause in October remains the baseline scenario, but the risk of further rate hikes in December is increasing.
Regarding U.S. Treasuries: the short end is influenced by policy expectations, while the long end must also consider inflation, fiscal factors, and term premiums.
Regarding U.S. stocks: high-valuation growth stocks are more susceptible to the dual pressures of real interest rates and financing costs.
Regarding gold: short-term influenced by the dollar and real yields, but the long-term safe-haven logic still exists.
Regarding crude oil: supply-side risks determine whether inflation can persist.
As for BTC and ETH, no more to say; let's be optimistic and see over 70,000.TSMC’s advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 79% of total wafer revenue. 3nm led with a 33% share, while next-generation 2nm chips already contributed 8%.
#DailyOrbit #TSMC #AI
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The US September PPI exploded, year-on-year at 6.3%, while the market expected only 5.3%. The month-on-month 1.3% is more than double the expectation, and the core PPI also fully exceeded expectations. Coupled with the previous CPI surge to 3.7%, it's like two consecutive heavy meals—there's no sign of inflation cooling down.
As soon as the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 22% to 51%. Officials now say "not urgent" verbally, but the divergence is obvious. Harker said rates are still not restrictive enough, and inflation thinking is solidifying; Daly and Goolsbee say it's not urgent, but they haven't ruled it out either.
The real star is Waller. At 11:30 Beijing time on October 16, he will have a dialogue in Bangkok with IMF Managing Director Georgieva. This is his last public appearance before the October FOMC blackout period. The market is waiting for this one sentence—if he emphasizes that inflation is spreading and action is needed, the expectation for an October rate hike will immediately return; if he says to wait and see, the expectation of a pause will be confirmed.
$BTC here is suffocated by the inflation data, dropping from 84,000 all the way down below 81,000, falling more than 3% in 24 hours, with over 180,000 liquidations across the market. As rate hike expectations heat up, US Treasury yields surge, and zero-yield assets are the first to get hit. Whether the 80,000 level can hold depends on what Waller says tonight.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $SNDK
Under pressure right at the open! After 21:30, Sandisk continued to weaken, with multiple emotional resonances triggering sell-offs
After the U.S. stock market officially opened at 21:30 Beijing time, the storage chip leader Sandisk did not show a recovery rally; instead, it experienced a continuous downward trend, with intraday losses expanding, dragging the entire storage sector into a collective pullback.
This round of continuous decline was not caused by a single piece of news but by several layers of pressure combined:
• Asia-Pacific panic transmission: Today, the South Korean stock market faced a "Black Thursday," with the KOSPI plunging intraday triggering a circuit breaker. Samsung and SK Hynix, two major storage giants, plunged sharply, and panic sentiment directly spilled over to the U.S. storage sector, with funds prioritizing reducing positions in related stocks right at the open.
• Inflation data raising rate hike expectations: The previously released U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, causing the market to reprice the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates or even raising rates. High-valuation tech and chip stocks were suppressed, and storage, as a sector with significant recent gains, became a key target for profit-taking.
• Cycle concerns reemerging: Although short-term storage price sentiment remains positive, funds have begun to speculate on long-term supply and demand, worrying that future capacity releases will weaken the price increase logic. Many short-term funds chose to lock in profits.
• Sector-wide dragging effect: After the open, Micron and Western Digital also fell simultaneously, creating a negative feedback loop of "mutually pushing down prices," with more stop-loss orders emerging as prices fell, amplifying the downward trend.
It is worth mentioning: Currently, there is no sudden major negative announcement from Sandisk; the volatility is driven more by sentiment, sector linkage, and short-term profit-taking, which does not mean a complete fundamental reversal. After the continuous sharp drop, intraday volatility will significantly increase, and short-term trading risks are high.
$SNDK #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 was indeed very strong, but this earnings report should not be simply interpreted as "AI chips continue to skyrocket mindlessly." More accurately, it proves that AI computing power demand remains robust, advanced process orders are full, but the market has started to evaluate its valuation and subsequent expansion returns with more stringent standards.
For investors, this earnings report is more like a "confirmation that the boom is still ongoing" rather than a signal to "mindlessly chase the highs." In the short term, the stock price may be affected by US stock market sentiment, semiconductor sector fluctuations, and valuation digestion; in the medium to long term, it still depends on capacity, gross margin, and the realization of AI demand.#TSMCQ3RecordProfit Major macroeconomic bearish news has arrived
$BTC is going to crash!
First, let's explain what PPI and CPI are
PPI is the Producer Price Index, representing the cost of goods purchased by factories and enterprises for production (producer-side inflation), while CPI is the consumer price index for everyday purchases by the public. PPI leads CPI: when factory costs rise significantly, they are likely to pass the increased costs onto retail prices, driving CPI higher.
This time, the core PPI data for September:
- PPI month-over-month 1.3%, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%, significantly above expectations
- Core PPI month-over-month 0.7%, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%, also off the charts
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
Key point: Not only oil and energy prices are rising, but the core PPI excluding food and energy also surged sharply.
PPI has risen for two consecutive months, with September data hitting a recent high, indicating a clear rebound in producer-side inflationary pressure.
Implications for the market
1. CPI already exceeded expectations the previous night, and now PPI has exploded; inflation is not a temporary rebound, upstream and downstream inflation are both rising.
2. The market worries: rising corporate costs will be passed on to consumers, making it likely that CPI will remain high.
3. Market inference: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will be further delayed, and the possibility of another rate hike remains.
👉 Major macroeconomic bearish news!The story of AI eating into storage has been going on for almost a year. After last week's revelation that Samsung's performance might fall short of expectations, storage stocks collectively pulled back this week.
Fortunately, Micron $MU has the hard chip of HBM supporting it, so it only dropped 5% this week; SK Hynix $SKHYNIX fell 10% due to profit-taking; SanDisk $SNDK suffered badly, relying purely on the NAND story, with funds panicking and dumping nearly 20%.
1. Micron is the most resistant to decline. HBM is in severe shortage, with over 75% of 2027 capacity locked in, so institutional target prices keep rising. The short-term pressure on the stock price is only due to the supply risk from the Taiwan factory strike.
2. SanDisk is the worst off, down 18% in a week. Because it purely focuses on NAND, the market is deflating the NAND bubble and even talking about the cycle peaking. Naturally, it fell the most. The last quarterly report showed a gross margin of 84.6%, which is quite good, and the forward PE is only 7.5 times. It depends on whether its report on the 29th can be strong.
3. SK Hynix's RSI is 27, indicating the stock price was hammered down by profit-taking. Fortunately, its HBM4 is already supplying NVIDIA, with a share close to 58%, so people have confidence in it and there is no panic selling. Also, its PE is only 3.1 times, very cheap.
As for which stock to buy, it depends on which one can get good news first: MU needs to resolve the strike issue; SanDisk needs to deliver better-than-expected earnings in the report; SK Hynix needs profit-taking to stop. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ PPI Actual Data: The "Second Shoe" Far Exceeds Expectations
Indicator Actual Value Expected Value Previous Value (Revised) Deviation
PPI YoY 6.3% 5.3% 5.6% +1.0 percentage points
PPI MoM 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% +0.7 percentage points
Core PPI MoM 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% +0.4 percentage points
Core PPI YoY 5.0% 4.4% 4.8% +0.6 percentage points
Core PPI MoM 0.7% — more than double the expectation, far exceeding my previous judgment of the "0.4% hawkish watershed." This is not the narrative that "inflation is still concentrated in energy," but solid evidence that inflation is spreading comprehensively from energy to core areas.
PPI MoM 1.3% is the most intense single-month increase since 2022, indicating that price pressure on the production side has not eased but is accelerating in deterioration. $BTC $ETH $SOL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Is this pullback in AI computing power leaders really the start of a major drop?
Today's opening in the US stock market is quite interesting, showing a complete contrast. The Dow surged to 51922 points, up 0.58%, while the Nasdaq was hammered down 1.31%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.47%.
Chip stocks took a collective hit: $AMD plummeted 5.4%, $INTC dropped 4.6%, and $NVDA followed with a 2.71% pullback. Chinese concept stocks $BABA and $BIDU also slightly retreated around 1.7%.
In my view, this is not a fundamental problem with computing power but a typical profit-taking and capital rotation between sectors.
Recently, tech stock valuations were pushed too high, combined with extended expectations of interest rate cuts. High-valuation stocks are especially sensitive to rates, so capital naturally flowed toward traditional industrial stocks for safety.
Additionally, people are starting to do the math: major companies have spent hundreds of billions buying chips, but how much actual return on investment is there? This anxiety about ROI is directly reflected in valuation discounts.
Looking ahead, NVDA and AMD may continue to fluctuate in the short term, squeezing bubbles and testing support levels. But as long as the giants don’t cut capital expenditures on AI, the fundamentals of AI hardware remain intact. Squeezing the high-level bubble actually provides a safer observation range for those optimistic about the long-term trend.
DYOR A smaller drop doesn't mean it can hold up
$BTC dropped 3% in one day, 2% in one week, but still has a 7% gain over one month.
Newcomers to the space tend to see these three numbers as the same thing.
How this number is calculated: the starting points for the three time periods are different.
People who bought a month ago are still making profits, while those who bought a week ago are already at a loss.
For the same candlestick, the feelings of these two groups are completely opposite.
Common misinterpretation: a smaller drop only means fewer sellers.
It doesn't mean someone is buying, nor does it mean there is a bottom below.
$ETH dropped 5.6% in one day, $SOL dropped nearly 7% in one week, the same principle applies.
The integers 80,000 and 100 themselves do not generate any buying pressure.
The price pauses there because orders happen to be stacked at that level.
Whether it continues moving after the pause or pushes upward are two different things.
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展
#$BTC $ETH This broth is simmered too thickly—TSMC's Q3 revenue hit NT$1.49 trillion, soaring 50.9% year-over-year, with net profit at NT$763.1 billion, a staggering 68.7% increase year-over-year, smashing historical records right on the stove, leaving even the most discerning diners with no complaints.
Think about it, the 2nm process just debuted and already accounts for 8% of wafer revenue—what does that mean? It's like the first pinch of truffle salt I just sprinkled into the soup; the aroma hasn't fully spread yet. And advanced processes below 7nm contribute a total of 79%—that's the real main course: Wagyu beef, king crab, black truffle all lined up, the solid dishes that form the backbone of this meal. The remaining mature processes are just side dishes and garnishes, herbs for decoration.
Where does the real firepower come from? AI chip demand. This dish's cooking time is fully supported by it; the stove temperature stays high, the aroma lingers, and orders keep coming nonstop. This isn't a small stir-fry; it's a banquet, table after table, with a turnover rate so high it makes competitors envious.
Now, let's talk market linkage. The US stock proxy $xSKHY's movement depends on how far the residual heat of this broth can spread. TSMC's earnings report is like a base broth for the entire semiconductor supply chain; the umami will seep layer by layer through the ingredients. But don't celebrate too early—the base broth may be excellent, but the bowl served to retail investors is often watered down.
I always talk about proportions. The mainstream stocks in your portfolio are your main dishes—steady heat, ample portions, able to hold up the whole banquet; small-cap varieties are the seasonings—sprinkle a little to enhance aroma, but too much ruins the flavor; as for leveraged contracts—that's the extra spicy chili pepper—if you tremble while cutting, the whole pot is ruined, and a perforated gut is no joke. Many see a bright earnings report and dump a ton of chili into the pot, but what ends up served is not a feast, but an ambulance.
You have to read the data carefully. Revenue up 50%, profit up nearly 70%, shows pricing power and capacity utilization are both online; this isn't volume driven by discounts or promotions, it's real skill. The high proportion of advanced processes means bargaining power is firmly in hand; others wanting to replicate this dish can't even set up the stove.
But there's an iron rule in the kitchen: the more signature the dish, the more likely it is to be watched and copied. Capacity expansion, geopolitical disruptions, customer order cuts—any wrong seasoning can change the whole dish's flavor. The earnings report is a finished product just off the stove, fragrant, but whether the next pot can maintain this level depends on whether the fire under the stove stays steady.
I've seen too many diners who see red oil boiling and think the whole pot is spicy, but when scooped out, it's all bean sprouts. The aroma of this market rally is indeed strong, but you have to distinguish which ladle is genuine rich broth and which is just oil floating on the surface. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit The numbers on the monitor don't lie. On October 9th, the total blood flow just recovered to 21,130,000, but 24 hours later, 6,540,000 blood units surged out from the wound — all from the same aorta, BlackRock's IBIT. The other eleven funds remained unchanged; this is not systemic sepsis, but an acute rupture of a single blood vessel.
But don't rush to conclusions. The real lesion lies on the timeline: from October 7th to 8th, 731 million dollars of blood was lost — that was the major hemorrhage. The small amount of backflow in between was just a brief compensation after vascular spasm, indicating that the perfusion pressure of this heart is extremely unstable and could fibrillate again at any time.
Ethereum's performance is even more alarming, with 85.4 million flowing out. Combined with Bitcoin, the single-day blood loss is 151 million. This is not the failure of two independent organs, but a sudden drop in cardiac output within the same circulatory system — both ventricles pumping weakly. You need to consider that the myocardium itself is problematic, not just a simple lack of blood volume.
Regarding the judgment — "Outflow from a single fund does not equal a comprehensive institutional sell-off" — anatomically, I agree. You can't conclude the entire heart is necrotic just because one coronary artery is narrowed. But as the surgeon, I must remind you: if this vessel happens to be the left anterior descending artery, its occlusion is enough to cause an anterior wall myocardial infarction. IBIT's weight in this circulation is precisely close to that critical vessel. The CPI data is about to be released, which is equivalent to a preoperative angiogram and will tell us whether the stenosis is 30% or 90%.
The decoupling of Bitcoin and Nasdaq is a dangerous signal in hemodynamics. The chambers of a normal heart contract synchronously; once separated contractions appear, it means the conduction system is destabilizing. Meanwhile, the widening AI credit spread and SK Hynix's double hit in earnings and stock price reflect increased peripheral vascular resistance — the heart has to work harder to maintain the same output.
As for that hyped US stock Token target, I won't make preoperative predictions. The iron rule on the operating table is: don't look at the medical summary handed by the family, only look at the images from your own angiography.
The key issue now is not whether the funds will return, but whether irreversible myocardial fibrosis has occurred. If this outflow is just stress-induced tachycardia, stopping medication can restore rhythm on its own; if scar tissue has already formed, then any CPI fluctuation will be the last wire to break the conduction system. I am waiting for the angiography results, not a placebo.
#btcetfoutflowsreturn 24-hour recovery? Mainstream coins' short-term funds are still "ebbing" 🌊
Daily net inflows can be misleading; zooming into 4-hour and 8-hour frames, the fund temperature of mainstream coins remains low.
BTC: +$55.51 million in 24 hours, but -$172 million and -$158 million in 4-hour and 8-hour periods respectively; weekly net outflow of $3.313 billion. There is short-term rebound, but mid-term pressure remains. 😬
$ETH: -$99.32 million in 4 hours, -$127 million in 8 hours; no obvious short-term fund replenishment, rebound quality is uncertain. 🤨
$SOL: -$8.92 million in 4 hours, -$13.68 million in 8 hours, +$20.12 million in 24 hours; bulls and bears are not aligned, chasing the rally has low cost-effectiveness. 🚫
$ZEC: -$22.77 million in 8 hours, weekly net outflow of $299 million; weak absorption, outflow halt not confirmed. ❄️
Overall: short-term remains bearish. But fund outflow does not necessarily mean price must fall. Before CPI and PPI releases, focus on the sustainability of fund inflows and key supports. For now, treat it as a corrective rebound; don’t rush to call a reversal. 🔍#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $SNDK multiple negative factors are piling up all at once!
First, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and high interest rates directly kill high-valuation growth stocks. The entire tech sector is being sold off, market sentiment is very poor, and funds are prioritizing reducing positions in storage stocks that had surged earlier.
Second, Elon Musk's tweet continues to have a damaging effect!
He publicly praised Micron for restrained pricing, implicitly criticizing other manufacturers for aggressive price hikes. The market is now extremely worried that if SanDisk continues to raise NAND prices, AI major clients will turn to Micron, spreading panic about peak gross margins.
Third, expectations of breakthroughs in ChangXin Memory's technology continue to suppress the market!
The market is pricing in future DRAM capacity expansion in advance, fearing that global memory supply will increase later, ending the price hike cycle prematurely. Even though current orders are good, funds have already started to anticipate a supply-demand reversal in a few years.
Fourth, a massive amount of profit-taking pressure is building above!
The recent surge was huge, and the 1500 resistance level has been tested several times but not broken. Bulls have long lost confidence; at the slightest negative news, funds rush to exit, and no one is willing to support the price.
Fifth, panic during earnings season.
The market has become very picky, doubting whether AI capital expenditures can be sustained. Even if earnings look good, any slightly weak forward guidance will trigger a sharp valuation cut.
Key reminder!
This is not a short-term minor pullback; it is a trend of capital withdrawal.
Don't rush to bottom-fish for a rebound!
Only if U.S. Treasury yields fall and NAND contract prices strengthen again will the sector have a chance to stabilize.
Before clear stabilization signals appear, selling pressure may continue to intensify at any time!So far, the trend for Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH appears to be bearish! But I believe there will be a temporary small correction, then a continuation of the decline! Last night's Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected, which means that expectations for a rate cut have been curbed, and the risks of a rate hike have returned to be priced into the market. This led to a chain reaction and increased market anxiety about another rate hike. We need to monitor the US dollar, US bond yields, and officials' statements that could change expectations. Amid these major economic factors, if it happens The entire market is frantically searching for a bottom, but institutions remain very calm and show no panic.
Yesterday's ETF fund data reveals the true situation of the market.
$BTC saw a net outflow of 31.44 million in a single day, with BlackRock and Fidelity concentrating their sell-offs. After a slight accumulation the previous day, the CPI negative news triggered immediate profit-taking; institutions are only probing and positioning cautiously with strict risk control.
$ETH had only a slight outflow of 51,900, with funds almost stationary. The price dropped to a low of 2315; institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, instead observing and waiting for direction.
$SOL is even more representative, with small outflows for eight consecutive days, and selling pressure nearly exhausted. The main force driving the dump now is not ETF institutions but on-exchange long position liquidations.
Market core: bullish sentiment has not been cleared.
$SOL long-short ratio is 2.68, with a large number of long positions yet to stop loss; the chain liquidation is not over.
This round of decline is a long-kill-long sentiment-driven drop, not institutional flight.
I remain in cash and watch; in chaotic times, do not call the bottom.
Wait until contract liquidations are complete, selling pressure is exhausted, and the market stabilizes before considering entry.
The above is only personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 20:30 The data is out, syncing with you all.
Weekly unemployment claims are lower than expected, indicating the labor market is still tight; September PPI year-on-year directly hit 6.3%, hotter than expected. In the short term, this is bearish news, no surprises. I also looked at the market; there is absolutely no capital supporting the market, a single sharp drop with no chance for bulls to react.
This pattern is very familiar, exactly like the CPI day yesterday. Once the data came out, volume dropped, with no support, indicating that market funds do not want to catch the falling knife at this level.
I judge that the US stock market will most likely continue to drift down after opening, with no decent rebound. For tech stocks, I prioritize shorting SNDK; the storage sector has been leading the decline, $MU and $SKHYNIX are following, but $SNDK has dropped from 1650 to just over 1300 without stopping, each rebound weaker than the last. Shorting it with the trend is more reliable than bottom fishing.
I'm not in a hurry with mainstream coins. For BTC, I still watch the position I mentioned this afternoon, waiting for it to dip into the 79000 to 78000 range before considering buying. The current level just above 80000 has resistance above and no support below, entering now is just gambling on direction. If it really falls to that range, I will look at volume and support; if there are signs of a bottom, I will buy in batches, not all at once.
The above is just my personal thinking and does not constitute investment advice
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $ETH $BTC Many people are still waiting for positive news to drive Bitcoin higher, but the external environment has quietly shifted. U.S. inflation data has risen again, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates have increased, the dollar has strengthened, and funds are beginning to withdraw from high-risk assets. The inflow of spot ETF funds that previously drove the rise has clearly slowed, institutional participation is much weaker than before, and the previous surge lacked sustained capital support.
Leverage is heavily stacked in the market now, with a large number of long positions recently liquidated, showing the pressure on bulls holding positions. Even with occasional policy benefits, it is difficult to reverse the major trend of capital outflow. Many people are gambling on a rebound by bottom-fishing, but they are easily trapped by short-term minor pullbacks.
Overall market risk appetite is declining, this round of the downtrend is far from over, and the outlook remains bearish. Do not blindly bottom-fish; entering against the trend carries high risk. Be patient and wait for further declines.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The crypto market surged by $840 billion in three months.
But spot trading volume actually dropped by 14.2%.
Prices rose 40%, but the amount of money traded decreased. This is called a fake rally.
The real risk lies in futures: open interest reached $102.2 billion.
Most of it is leveraged. When the price falls to a certain level, the system automatically sells for you. After selling, the price crashes even lower, triggering more automatic sell-offs.
The last time this number exceeded $100 billion was in May 2025.
After that: forced liquidations of $19 billion, and Bitcoin dropped 14.5% in three days.
This is not a crash countdown.
But on October 28, the day of the Federal Reserve decision, it could ignite.
How much do you still have?$OKB essentially can be increased to 210 billion in the backend because it only circulates on this one platform, and almost no one will withdraw the coins, right? So there's no way to prevent the platform from acting maliciously; after all, it's all just transaction data, so even if they increase the supply by 10 times in the backend, you wouldn't notice.Big Brother Maji's recent portfolio adjustment really signals a shift in the wind.
He used to basically go all-in on longs, but this time it's different. The total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts: short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH.
A few details:
$BTC 40x short, opened at 84070, currently floating profit around 220,000 U, but funding fees have cost 56,600 U. Position dominant, but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can be painful, so don't just look at the floating profit.
$ETH 25x long, opened at 2541, currently floating loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he's still holding longs—either betting on ETH catching up or using it for portfolio hedging. Unfortunately, there was a strong spike this morning, suspected to be targeting Big Brother Maji's position!
$HYPE is the harshest: 5x short, opened at 65.8, floating loss of 4.21 million U, though funding fees collected 1.03 million U. These fees help ease the cost a bit, but can't withstand price volatility. Don't think collecting fees means it's stable. So I think this isn't a full bearish stance, more like he's differentiating directions among different coins.
Watch three points going forward: can BTC stabilize, can ETH rise, and can the HYPE short hold up. You can observe smart money's positions, but don't blindly copy. What really matters is why he's positioning this way, not just following because he buys. The market is still falling, but $ZK managed to generate proofs for 7,200 consecutive Ethereum blocks with just one graphics card, with 99% of the proofs completed within 10 seconds, rising about 12% against the trend. Meanwhile, $ARB and $OP, which are also in the L2 track, weakened. But does strong technology necessarily mean it's worth chasing? ZKsync Era's DeFi locked value is only about $15 million, far below ARB and OP. More importantly, the originally planned cross-chain fee mechanism has not been activated after the v31 adjustment, so token demand may not necessarily increase. However, the top ten addresses already occupy nearly 51%, so personally, I think the current state is more like being controlled by major holders. Therefore, I admit that ZK is stronger than others in the same series in the short term, but I tend to believe it is driven by a combination of technical benefits and trading capital.The story of AI eating into storage has been going on for almost a year. After last week's revelation that Samsung's performance might fall short of expectations, storage stocks collectively pulled back this week.
Fortunately, Micron $MU has the hard chip of HBM supporting it, so it only dropped 5% this week; SK Hynix $SKHYNIX fell 10% due to profit-taking; SanDisk $SNDK suffered badly, relying purely on the NAND story, with funds panicking and dumping nearly 20%.
1. Micron is the most resistant to decline. HBM is in severe shortage, with over 75% of 2027 capacity locked in, so institutional target prices keep rising. The short-term pressure on the stock price is only due to the supply risk from the Taiwan factory strike.
2. SanDisk is the worst off, down 18% in a week. Because it purely focuses on NAND, the market is deflating the NAND bubble and even talking about the cycle peaking. Naturally, it fell the most. The last quarterly report showed a gross margin of 84.6%, which is quite good, and the forward PE is only 7.5 times. It depends on whether its report on the 29th can be strong.
3. SK Hynix's RSI is 27, indicating the stock price was hammered down by profit-taking. Fortunately, its HBM4 is already supplying NVIDIA, with a share close to 58%, so people have confidence in it and there is no panic selling. Also, its PE is only 3.1 times, very cheap.
As for which stock to buy, it depends on which one can get good news first: MU needs to resolve the strike issue; SanDisk needs to deliver better-than-expected earnings in the report; SK Hynix needs profit-taking to stop. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $BTC is once again testing the 80,000 integer level, continue to observe
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit significantly exceeded market consensus, with single-quarter earnings hitting a record high. The core driver is the sustained high demand for AI computing power chips, full orders for advanced processes, with both revenue and profit increasing. Meanwhile, the Q4 revenue guidance has been raised, and the full-year revenue growth target has been lifted, confirming the strong certainty of advanced wafer foundry under the AI capital expenditure cycle, with fundamentals remaining strong. From a trading perspective, the earnings delivery is positive, but caution is needed against the short-term game of "buying expectations, selling facts." The stock price has partially priced in AI high growth in advance, so after the earnings report, short-term profit-taking fluctuations are likely.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the company remains the world's most advanced wafer foundry with the highest barriers in advanced processes. The 2nm process is gradually ramping up, and AI high computing power orders continue to be received, so the main growth logic remains intact; however, two major suppressing factors need close monitoring: first, the phased dilution of gross margin caused by the 2nm mass production ramp-up; second, the potential risks from capital expenditure increases due to building factories overseas, geopolitical policy changes, and the subsequent slowdown in AI customer capital expenditure rhythm, which will affect long-term profit expectations and valuation midpoints.TSMC's Q3 earnings far exceeded expectations, but the stock price fell in response, a typical case of "good news priced in."
Behind the impressive earnings report lies a dual nature: on one hand, 2nm process steadily ramps up, the share of advanced processes increases, AI chip demand remains strong, and the short-term fundamentals are impeccable; on the other hand, risks are also prominent, with performance highly tied to a few major AI clients, US factory construction driving up long-term costs, and geopolitical uncertainties persisting. Short-term benefits have been realized, and the market is beginning to price in long-term risks. Going forward, focus will be on capital expenditures and the sustainability of customer orders. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high US economic data collectively scores high, yet the dollar and US Treasury yields are moving downward. Wall Street, after reviewing the earnings reports, begins to doubt whether the results are propped up by borrowing. September CPI year-on-year 3.7%, PPI year-on-year 6.3%, retail sales month-on-month growth 0.8%. The numbers look quite impressive. But looking closely, things are not that simple. Gasoline price increases push up retail amounts, and the core consumer control group excluding some volatile items only grew by 0.1%. Residents spending more money does not necessarily mean they bought more goods. Moreover, price increases coexist with actual income pressure. Thus, the market shows a rare divergence: The US dollar index falls back to around 102.03. The 10-year US Treasury yield drops to about 5.085%. Gold once rose 1.3% to around $4156. BTC, however, remains under pressure, having fallen to around $80,247. This indicates that funds are re-evaluating two things: Whether inflation will force the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, and whether high interest rates will in turn hurt economic growth. 🔮 Tonight's Web3 Fund Watch BTC｜Macro defense The dollar's decline has not immediately brought crypto buying; first observe support near $80,000 and changes in open interest. XRP｜Institutional fund watch Compare XRP/BTC relative strength and whether stablecoin infrastructure news can translate into actual trading demand. LINK｜On-chain financial infrastructure Focus on real adoption by financial institutions, completion📊 US PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, BTC dropped toward 80,000! But I don't think the entire decline can be blamed on inflation
Tonight, the US September PPI is officially released:
Overall PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year; excluding food, energy, and trade services, the monthly increase still reached 0.5%.
This is indeed a warning signal for inflation.
BTC's 24-hour decline includes trading before the PPI release, so we cannot directly say that the entire 2.14% drop was caused by the PPI.
Another piece of evidence comes from ETFs.
On 10/13, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $175.7 million, but on 10/14 it turned into a net outflow of $261.4 million.
Unstable capital demand, combined with inflation possibly affecting interest rate expectations, creates more resistance for the rebound.
Currently bearish, but not enough to confirm a larger-scale downtrend has started.
If BTC effectively breaks below $80,000 and fails to recover, the downside risk will increase.
Conversely, if it reclaims $82,500, a reassessment of the short-term structure will be needed.
What to track next: whether US Treasury yields and spot buying change synchronously after the PPI release.
The data tells us what happened; the subsequent price and capital reactions help judge if the trend has changed.
Do you think the current $BTC price already reflects the inflation risk?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Is history always astonishingly similar? The "midterm election curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past few rounds:
🔹 2014: 71 days after the midterm election, BTC hit bottom
🔹 2018: 39 days after the midterm election, BTC hit bottom
🔹 2022: 13 days after the midterm election, BTC hit bottom
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutionalization accelerates: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is OI increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and OI decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price stabilization and active buying follow, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities.
Historical cycles can only provide clues; capital behavior is the verification signal.
In 2026, do you think the Bitcoin cycle bottom is already near? $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 Two big inflation blows have shattered the rate cut fantasy.
① CPI strikes first: September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, exceeding the expected 3.6%, gasoline surged 9.1% in a single month, and core CPI at 2.6% also beat expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped overnight from 22% to nearly 50%.
② PPI delivers another blow: September PPI year-on-year at 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, both crushing expectations (5.3%/0.5%), the strongest since the end of 2022. Upstream price increases are starting to pass downstream, confirming inflation stickiness.
③ Pain in the crypto world: Bitcoin fell below 81,000, briefly touching 80,200; ETH plunged 6% to around 2,350. Nearly $1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions—those chasing longs were collectively wiped out by a single data point. Spot ETFs saw simultaneous net outflows.
Remember this chain: Inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens → funds exit high-volatility assets. Bitcoin is no longer a "digital gold" safe haven; it is the most elastic link in global interest rate trading.
The real judgment day is the FOMC on October 27-28. Whether the 80,000 level holds is more important than any single bullish candle. Hold your hands, don’t be part of the 90%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 earnings report is indeed impressive, with net profit hitting a record high. Many people's first reaction is that the semiconductor industry is about to take off comprehensively. Here's my take: ✅The positive side: Demand for high-end process orders is very stable, AI chips continue to contribute revenue, gross margin remains strong, and profitability is solidly maximized. AI-related wafer orders from customers have not declined, and advanced processes remain TSMC's core foundation, which is the key reason for the record-high profits. ⚠️But we must also be realistic, there are some concerns: The recovery pace of mature process demand is slow, with short-term support mainly from AI advanced processes; additionally, overseas factory construction costs continue to rise, and geopolitical uncertainties will suppress capital expenditures and profit margins in the long term. Another point is that if AI customers reduce capital expenditures later, it will directly impact future order expectations. Current market divergence: Optimists believe AI computing demand will continue long-term, TSMC's advanced process moat is solid, and earnings still have room to grow; cautious investors think the current high earnings are largely priced into the stock, and if AI customer order pace slows, expectations may fall. In summary: This earnings report proves the AI dividend is still being realized, but a peak in earnings does not equal a peak in stock price. Going forward, focus on tracking advanced process order intake, gross margin, and customer capital expenditure guidance. The semiconductor sector is highly volatile; avoid blindly chasing highs and manage your positions well. #TSM #台积电 #半导体 $MEGA This 20x short position has a floating profit of 152%, capitalizing on the emotional retreat after the "double top".
Opened short at 0.04739, the market signals were very clear at the time: the price had risen from 0.03905 to 0.04840, indicating the bulls were overextended. The second rally failed to surpass the previous high, a classic double top pattern. On the 4-hour chart, the price rebound couldn't hold above the VWAP (0.04521), and moving averages started to turn downward. At this level, I never believe in "one more push up"; above is all trapped positions, pulling up just hands over heads to others.
The order book is interesting too, with 57% sell orders dominating, and the funding rate still negative (-0.00255%), indicating shorts are crowded, yet the price rose 3.08% intraday. Many might think "negative funding + slow decline means a rebound is due," but I focus on the chips: resistance was met twice near 0.048, with major funds clearly taking profits at highs while retail investors still fantasize about a breakout. This is the best prey for shorts.
The core logic behind taking this position is simple: after high-level divergence, without new capital stepping in, the uptrend naturally ends. The mark price is now 0.04377, creating space from the entry price, but buy orders near 0.0437 still hold 43%, so short-term fluctuations are possible. I’m watching the 0.0452 (VWAP) hurdle; if it can’t be reclaimed, the bearish trend remains. A break below the previous low at 0.03905 would signal the real acceleration phase.
Although 20x leverage isn’t as aggressive as the previous 50x or 75x, the 152% floating profit comes from the right position and timing. In altcoins with wide oscillations, capital behavior is "push valuation up → take profits → reprice." What I captured in MEGA this time was that middle profit-taking phase.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Q3 Non-GAAP EPS market consensus expectation: $0.82~0.83, revenue expectation about $12.86 billion
- Historical pattern: In the last 4 quarters, Netflix has slightly beaten EPS expectations twice and missed twice; the beats mostly just slightly exceeded by about $0.01, rarely a big beat
- Positive support: Growth in ad subscription business and continuous price increases help raise revenue per user; content amortization growth slows down in the second half, supporting profit margins
- Downside risks: New content investments and negative exchange rate impacts will squeeze profit margins; if new subscriber growth falls short of expectations, it could drag down performance.I'm telling you, brothers! Are all the short position brothers numb?
BTC directly crashed to just above 80,000, ETH even harsher, dropping straight to 2310.
To be honest, I was sure it would fall, but I really didn't expect it to drop so decisively.
The logic is not complicated at all: last night core CPI was 0.3%, overall 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, the rate cut scenario directly changed to rate hikes. CME data shows the probability of at least two hikes before the end of January 2027 surged to 73.7%, the probability of a hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and the probability of no change is only 1.2%.
Before the data, people were still shouting "bad news is over, full position bottom fishing," but overnight all of that became fuel. BTC at 84,000 was the bulls' last trap to lure more buyers.
You could tell from my post yesterday, I kept saying don't chase longs before the data, the rebound was just giving shorts some points. Once the trend is reversed by macro factors, the stampede is faster than anyone else.
Brothers who caught this wave, report your wins in the comments, let me see how many got numb.
Those who didn't catch it, don't worry, there will be rebounds during the rate hike cycle, the opportunity is not just this once.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $SOL Everything is falling, but we have to distinguish the severity
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
$BTC fell about 3% in the last 24 hours, dropped about 2% over the week, but still retains about 7% gains in the past month.
For this performance, I temporarily rate it as "relatively resistant to decline," but it's not yet time to turn bullish.
Next, watch the reaction around $80,000. Round numbers easily attract attention but don't automatically provide support.
If it breaks below and fails to recover quickly, short-term expectations should be lowered; if it holds and the rebound continues bit by bit, then it shows signs of recovery. Don't rush to increase your position just because it fell less.
$ETH faces more obvious pressure today, dropping about 5.6% in 24 hours, and has slightly turned down over the past month.
At times like this, "not rising much before" is not a reason to buy; a small rise can still continue to weaken.
Even if a rebound occurs later, I will first see how far it can go.
If it just recovers a little and then falls back again, it remains weak; only continuous recovery justifies changing the outlook.
$SOL fell about 4.4% today, which doesn't seem particularly notable, but the weekly drop is close to 7%.
Looking only at the daily drop might seem okay, but extending the view over several days reveals the pressure.
Approaching $100, it's easy to think "round numbers always hold a bit."
I will wait for the price to prove itself. Holding and pushing higher is very different from pausing briefly and then continuing to fall, and the response afterward is completely different.These two short positions of mine, honestly, should be the kind of trades that brothers dream of.
Why have I held on until now without letting go? It's not luck, it's my grasp of this trend—I, Hei Mao, saw it clearly from day one.
I'll repeat my previous judgment: the current market is almost exactly the same as when the last rate hike cycle started. First a bull trap, then a slow decline, and finally acceleration. We've been down this road before; this time it's just a replay of the script.
Let's look at $ZEC first. It rolled down from 1697 to 1087, with the 4-hour EMA5, 10, and 20 all pressing down, MACD repeatedly forming death crosses below zero, and every rebound being pushed back down. This is not a technical correction; the trend is forcing your head down. The Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) saw a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, with assets under management shrinking from a peak of over $900 million to $750 million. On-chain spot holders can't hold anymore and are redeeming; someone has to take over the market—who will? Certainly not me.
$ETH dropped from 2807 to 2363, also in a bearish alignment, with MACD barely surviving below the zero line. Validator exits once surged to 851,000 ETH, the highest in 2026, with many queued up waiting to unlock. The spot ETF has had six consecutive days of net outflows, and the CVD has been negative since August. This is a liquidity-drained market—more sellers than buyers, and rebounds are just opportunities to add to shorts.
Does this picture look familiar? It's almost the same as when the last rate hike cycle started.
Many think it should rebound after such a drop, but once a trend forms, it won't reverse just because of some shouts. In a rate hike cycle, liquidity tightens, and high-valuation assets get hit first. In September, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and minutes show most officials expect another hike before year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.24%. Where does money go? To Treasuries; who will take your altcoin market? The more retail investors bottom-fish, the happier the manipulators get.
I entered the $ZEC short at 1422 and the $ETH short at 2727, holding all the way with unrealized gains of 706% and 1336%. There were temptations to rebound along the way, but my hands never trembled. Because I knew which part of the profit I was making—it's from liquidity contraction and valuation reversion.
The next moves are very simple: as long as it rises, I add to my shorts. Every high-level rebound is actually a window to enter short positions. Tonight, the US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and PPI is next. The market has priced in an 88% chance of a rate hike in December. Macro pressures will only increase, not decrease.
Until the trend changes, remember—remove the buy button.
$BTC$ZEC $ETH
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, with upstream factory prices and downstream consumer inflation strengthening simultaneously, indicating that inflation stickiness is stronger than anticipated, and there is pressure for upstream costs to be passed downstream, leaving the Federal Reserve the option to raise rates again.
But it’s important to distinguish: meeting data targets ≠ guaranteed rate hikes. The Fed has always been "data-dependent," and a single month of better-than-expected data is not enough to directly confirm a rate hike. The current market pricing is that there is a possibility of rate hikes within the year, but it is not a certainty. On one hand, the inflation rebound provides a hawkish rationale; on the other hand, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have recently risen, financial conditions have tightened passively, partially substituting for active rate hikes, so officials are likely to continue observing and wait for more validating data.
For the market, this data directly suppresses previous rate cut expectations, pushing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher. For high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, the baseline scenario is bearish, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding crypto assets, and short-term volatility is likely to amplify. Of course, there are special cases: if there is a rapid short-term sell-off with shorts fully released, a bearish bottoming repair could occur, but this is an emotional game, not a trend reversal.
Key follow-ups: recent public speeches by Federal Reserve officials, core service inflation, and the next rounds of employment and inflation data. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
This data shows a synchronized rebound in prices from upstream production to downstream consumption. Energy price increases are transmitting throughout the entire industry chain, breaking the expectation of a continuous decline in inflation and pushing up market rate hike pricing.
However, the probability of an immediate rate hike in October is low since a hike was just completed in September. The Federal Reserve prefers to observe another set of employment and inflation data. A 25bp rate hike in December has become the market's baseline expectation.
Risk points: If inflation continues to rise, a temporary rate hike in October is possible; conversely, if employment weakens rapidly and the economy cools significantly, the rate hike plan may be shelved.
In summary: Inflation data keeps the Fed's rate hike option open; the door to another hike this year is not closed but not guaranteed either. December is the key window.
⚠️ Macro analysis only, not investment advice. Evening Hotspot Analysis: CPI Exceeds Expectations, Rate Hike Expectations Double, Market Focuses on Risk Release
$BTC $ETH:
US September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, surpassing market expectations, inflation pressure spreading from energy to more sectors. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October surged directly to 50%, doubling from before, with market risk aversion sentiment rapidly heating up.
Affected by this, BTC fell below the 81,000 mark in the evening, hitting a new low since late September, with $982 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, over 90% of which were long positions, indicating a concentrated short-term liquidation of bulls.
Analysis:
In the short term, the rate hike expectation disturbance caused by inflation exceeding expectations is the direct trigger for this drop; funds are concentrating on risk aversion, and sentiment release is quite intense, leading to significantly increased short-term volatility.
However, from the perspective of the 4-year cycle, this is just an inflation rebound in the middle of a rate cut cycle, not the start of a new major rate hike cycle. The current inflation rebound is mainly driven by energy and temporary factors, completely different in scale from the violent rate hike cycle of comprehensive inflation in 2022.
The general direction of monetary policy is still gradually declining from a high level; the underlying logic of the bull market remains intact. Short-term emotional shocks and price fluctuations are normal corrections and shakeouts during the bull market process.
For medium to long-term holdings, there is no need to adjust positions based on short-term news; the cycle structure is not broken. Be patient until sentiment is fully released; the low point is again an opportunity to increase holdings.
Just a personal view, trading is ultimately self-reliant
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Important macro data released today at 8:30 ET has been published with actual values verified, no longer using pre-release expectations. PPI: Significantly higher than expected. September PPI month-over-month +1.3% (expected +0.5%), year-over-year +6.3% (expected +5.3%); Core PPI month-over-month +0.7% (expected +0.3%). Retail sales: Overall stronger than expected, but with internal divergence. September retail sales month-over-month +0.8% (expected +0.3%), excluding autos growth +0.9% (expected +0.5%). However, the retail sales control group only grew +0.1%, below the expected +0.3%. Initial jobless claims: The labor market remains resilient. Initial claims 199,000 (expected 200,000), continuing claims 1.71 million (in line with expectations). Market environment after data release: Nasdaq 100 futures down about -1.3%, S&P 500 futures down about -0.3%, 10Y US Treasury yield about 5.07%–5.09%, BTC around $80,700. Notably, US Treasury yields are actually falling today while tech stocks continue to decline. This indicates the market is not only worried about inflation but is also reassessing AI investment returns, financing risks, and corporate valuations. Conclusion: Maintain a bearish bias but do not chase the dip. Today's short positions require confirmation from a rebound and should not be opened solely based on macroeconomic negatives. ———————————— 1. Today This cold splash of inflation has dampened expectations for rate cuts.
The biggest fear in trading is when your position is already betting on easing, but the data moves in the opposite direction.
In September, US PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, with core PPI up 0.7%. Producer prices are clearly heating up, and even after excluding food and energy, the readings remain high. Simply attributing this rise to oil price fluctuations doesn’t hold up.
But here’s the difference: a rise in PPI doesn’t mean the next CPI will increase by the same amount. Companies can absorb some costs themselves or choose to raise prices; the subsequent transmission depends on demand. What really troubles the market is that the Fed finds it harder to confidently signal easing, and the rate cut pace that funds had anticipated may need to be repriced.
In the crypto space, my judgment is that short-term caution is needed. For BTC and ETH to continue strengthening, besides their own buying pressure, external liquidity support is also necessary. Repeated inflation will add resistance to this upward logic.
Next, I will watch the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can hold the volatility range after the data release. If funds still step in despite negative news, that’s more informative than simply guessing price moves based on data. Conversely, if rebounds lack volume and key levels are broken, don’t rush to treat every dip as a cheap entry.
This set of data leans bearish, but bearish doesn’t mean blindly shorting. First see how funds respond, then decide how to adjust positions. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ @OKX星球 $BTC is about to break 80,000 in this wave. The PPI data has been released, and it has once again blown past expectations, and by a large margin. The previous value was 5.4%, the forecast was 5.3%, and the release was 6.3%. This is still the annual rate; the monthly rate has more than tripled, with the previous value at 0.4%, the expectation at 0.5%, and the release at 1.3%.
What's worse is that retail data unexpectedly came out better, indicating that the purchasing power and economic development of the American people still have resilience. Alright, the Federal Reserve can confidently raise interest rates, and we can all just relax.
Most of the key data before the meeting has also been released. The rise in oil prices has undoubtedly driven inflation up. However, the decline in labor force and retail data shows that although the US economy still has resilience, it is not very strong. While there are no signs of recession in the short term, the Federal Reserve should be considering this.
Yesterday, CME showed about a 55% probability of a rate hike; after today's PPI release, it might surge to 60%. And with the Hormuz Strait unresolved, October's inflation will definitely be higher than September's. So will there be another rate hike in December?
Now tech stocks and semiconductors are struggling a bit, so it's really "see you in 2028" #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Regarding the current status of $STRK, it does not look like a whale dumping. The top ten addresses collectively hold about 7.09 billion STRK, which is the highest level since April. Additionally, three tracked whale addresses bought in, totaling about $722,000. On the same day, tracked exchanges had a net deposit of about $446,000. The net inflow is particularly high. Today is known to have a token unlock, but instead of falling, it rose. Personally, I think it looks more like whales preparing for one last pump and dump. Everyone should be cautious with this coin. The whales are not leaving; they are preparing for the final big harvest!#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
Just saw the Korean stock market drop nearly 8%, with Samsung and Hynix leading the sell-off, triggering the exchange's circuit breaker again.
This wave is not just Korea's own issue. Overnight, the US tech sector was already adjusting, with the Nasdaq down 1.88% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declining for the sixth consecutive trading day. The Nikkei also fell over 4% today. The selling pressure across the global AI industry chain is simultaneously intensifying.
On the surface, it looks like CPI exceeding expectations has raised concerns about interest rate hikes, but the deeper issue lies in AI itself. ASML's earnings show equipment demand remains strong, and TSMC's profits also exceeded expectations, yet investors are not convinced. Everyone is starting to do the math: the financing costs for AI infrastructure are rising, competition in the storage industry is intensifying, and the question is whether these investments can yield sufficient returns.
Korea is a bellwether for memory chips; when it falls, global tech stocks come under pressure. For BTC, the short-term pressure is direct. The tech sell-off drags down risk appetite, pushing funds toward safe-haven assets, making it difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected. BTC is currently fluctuating around 82000, with short-term support between 81500 and 82000; breaking below that points to 80000.
But from another perspective, the essence of this adjustment is the market reassessing the input-output ratio of AI. If funds withdraw from overvalued hardware, some might flow into BTC and similar non-sovereign hard assets. $KR200 $SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点