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#TSMCOct15Earnings
TSMC reports Q3 today and the revenue part is basically already out: monthly sales add up to NT$1.494T (~US$46.7B), +51% YoY and above the top of the US$44.6–45.8B guidance. So the real test today isn't the top line. It's three things: (1) gross margin vs the 65–67% guide while 2nm ramps, (2) Q4 guidance, (3) any change to the US$60–64B capex. A clean beat on margin plus a strong Q4 guide = AI demand still running hot.In the 12-hour liquidation heatmap, three short "pain zones" are stacked above $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL, like three magnets, but magnets never guide the way. Let's look at the data first: Around 84375.7 above $BTC, approximately $32.18 million in short liquidations are concentrated, only +0.74% from the current price; around 2545.16 for $ETH, about $13.98 million, +1.3% away; around 108.85 for $SOL, about $2 million, +1.03% away. The pain zones for these three coins all fall within just over 1%, creating a density that easily gives the illusion of "one poke and it explodes." But density does not equal inevitable touch. The truly noteworthy signal is that the three pain zones are simultaneously close to the current price, indicating that leveraged longs and shorts are both adding positions near the same price range, putting the market in a stalemate where "whoever moves first loses." Historical experience repeatedly shows that before major data releases, pain zones are often not springboards for breakouts but bait to hunt stop losses — a poke, a sweep, then a pullback is a more common scenario. In other words, the liquidation chart tells you where it hurts, but not when it will hurt. Treating pain zones as breakout signals is like mistaking a map for a road sign. What is even more worrisome is the second-level effect: once the shorts above are forcibly liquidated, the resulting surge often comes fast and fierce, but the subsequent counterattack is equally brutal. Because liquidation-driven rallies do not rely on real buying pressure, once the fuel burns out, those chasing the highs become the pain in the next round.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 earnings report is about to be released. After record-high revenue, where is the market's real "winning move"?
TSMC's Q3 revenue is about 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a new historical high. However, on the market, TSM and xTSM saw about a 2% pullback, indicating that the market has already priced in the positive revenue news. The focus now is on the following three points:
* Gross margin and profit realization: The company previously forecasted a Q3 gross margin of 65% to 67%. Whether net profit can also achieve significant growth is the direct driver determining if the short-term stock price can continue to hit new highs.
* Q4 guidance and capital expenditure: Compared to the already announced Q3 data, investors pay more attention to Q4 revenue guidance and whether capital expenditure will be raised. This directly reflects the sustainability of strong downstream AI chip demand.
* Sentiment and trading strategy: If guidance only meets expectations, beware of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" style pullback; if capital expenditure and guidance are raised beyond expectations, AI concepts and related tokenized US stocks may usher in a new round of rallies.
After tonight's earnings call, will everyone prefer to position early or wait for the guidance to be released before trading with the trend? #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it remains to be seen if management will raise full-year revenue growth forecasts and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is not yet finalized, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; testing and packaging capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution against all good news being priced in
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on its technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of AI dividends.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's offer in Texas, or steadily focus on Arizona?
DYOR MSFT/USDT Perpetual $MSFT
I mentioned yesterday afternoon that I shorted MSFT.
Friends who followed can give a like, showing that my sharing can still help some people.
The logic is simple: this is a new high major top, and it has tested twice before without breaking through, indicating resistance still exists.
So just boldly short it!
For the position here, braver friends can even go bigger because the stop loss is very clear—it's a new high.
The upper and lower limits of the box range are the simplest and most certain structure.
I'm not saying it will definitely rise at the lower limit or fall at the upper limit.
Rather: the entry point is known, the stop loss is also known, and it's clearly known.
This is the most satisfying position for beginners to trade.
If you say MSFT's market cap is too big and the profit isn't much.
Well, it has risen from 350 on 6/26 to 550 now, a 50% increase in four months. BTC in a bull market is roughly at this level too, right?
Wouldn't you want to earn money with certainty?$BTC expected 3.6, actually released 3.7 (US September CPI exceeded expectations), logic is clear and easy to understand.
Expected 3.6, actual 3.7: Latest interpretation of US inflation data
On the evening of October 14, the US released September CPI inflation data, with the market unanimously expecting 3.6%, but the actual figure came in at 3.7%, slightly exceeding expectations, completely changing the short-term market rhythm.
Although it's only a 0.1% difference, this is a very critical recent inflation reversal signal and the core reason for global market volatility that day.
1. Core data comparison (easy to understand at a glance)
Market expected CPI year-on-year: 3.6%
Actual released CPI year-on-year: 3.7%
Previous value (last month): 3.4%
Core CPI: 2.6%, also higher than expected
In simple terms: inflation did not continue to cool down, but instead rose again, hotter than everyone expected.
This time, CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase in nearly half a year, indicating that the current price increase speed is accelerating, not a temporary fluctuation.
2. Why did it exceed expectations?
The main driver of this inflation rebound is the sharp rise in energy prices.
Recently, oil prices have continued to rise, directly driving up transportation, fuel, and commodity costs, combined with still strong consumer resilience, making overall price decline difficult.
The market originally expected inflation to continue to decline steadily and the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose policy pace, but the data directly "slapped" the loose expectations.
3. What does the 0.1 difference actually affect?
Many people think a 0.1% difference is negligible, but the financial market looks at trend turning points.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficient to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should shift forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers are pulling orders ahead are more informative than repeating the already public total figures.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the subsequent demand expands in sync with actual usage, the implications for the next few quarters differ. It is not yet clear which situation applies. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC does not require every aspect to have only good news. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What truly makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating the existing records.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ After the CPI release on the evening of October 14, both the stock market and crypto fell together. $SOL dropped from 113 to just over 100 dollars this week, a 10% decline from the high to the low.
When prices fall, first distinguish who is selling. Whether the money is flowing out of futures or spot markets, the subsequent market situation differs.
The futures columns don’t seem to be running. The funding rate has remained positive, rising to 0.0097% at midnight on October 15, meaning longs continue to pay shorts. Open interest increased from 8.44 million to 8.96 million contracts, prices fell, but positions increased. The long-short ratio of large accounts rose from 2.58 to 2.89.
On the spot side, it’s the opposite: the proportion of active sell orders reached 58% on October 15, compared to around 48% in previous days. Active sells directly consume buy orders; a high proportion means sellers are eager to exit.
Spot chips are being sold, while large holders on futures are taking them in. This combination has appeared 7 times in the past 500 trading days; in the following 7 days, 4 times the price rose and 3 times it fell, with a median increase of 3.3%, the best up 24.3%, and the worst down 6.4%. The median for all trading days in the same period was a 0.5% decline.
The sample size is only 7, so it can’t be considered a rule, but at least spot selling doesn’t necessarily mean continued decline. What to watch is whether the batch of longs taking the chips is still there; if the funding rate drops to negative and open interest falls accordingly, it means the holders have changed this round.
ETF outflows are only a bit over one million dollars per day, negligible compared to daily volume of 3 billion; it’s not the main force in this move.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
$TSM Q3 revenue reached a new high of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 50% year-over-year, exceeding the company's USD guidance upper limit by 2%. This figure was disclosed on October 8 along with the monthly revenue, and the market has had seven days to digest it.
Last night after the US stock market closed, ASML raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter, with net profit doubling year-over-year. ADR fell 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.3%. On the same day, US September CPI was 3.7% year-over-year and core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 37%, but the market is not yet paying for the surprise.
ASML's earnings report showed a gross margin of 57.5%, surpassing the guidance upper limit, driven by service and upgrades based on installed equipment. The doubling of net profit included a pre-tax valuation gain of about 510 million from Mistral AI. Management said customers are already inquiring about equipment for 2029 and 2030.
TSMC will hold its earnings call today at 2 PM. Revenue is clear, the only suspense is the gross margin. Last quarter it was 67.7%, guidance is 65% to 67%, consensus at 66.5%.
2nm actually accounted for 3% in Q2; Bank of America estimates 11% in Q3 and 18% in Q4, above 67%, supporting 70% next year. Below 66%, the sell-side curve would need to be adjusted downward. $xTSM
$ASML said supply will be insufficient from 2027 to 2028, and TSMC will update its 2027 capital expenditure plan today.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 In the model, the cautious/benchmark/optimistic scenarios adopt tax rates of approximately 18%/17%/16%, and diluted shares of 4.22/4.20/4.18 billion respectively; net non-operating expenses are about $130 million/$110 million/$90 million respectively. Therefore, the optimistic scenario includes joint improvements in profit margin, tax rate, and share count.TSMC's record revenue is old news. Today's real test: margins.
Q3 revenue: ~NT$1.49T, up ~50% YoY, record high (already confirmed) Q3 gross margin guide: 65-67%
Last quarter it printed 67.7%, above the top of its own guide
Earnings call: Oct 15, 14:00 Taiwan time.
Revenue is the headline. Profit growth is the question.
Where does Q3 gross margin land?
- Above 67%
- 65-67%
- Below 65%
#TSMCOct15Earnings #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Four questions determine the direction
Can the full-year guidance be raised again? Morgan Stanley expects it to be adjusted from "above 40%" to "mid to low 40%", while Goldman Sachs forecasts a 42% full-year growth in 2026. The Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 0.05 quarter-over-quarter. The record revenue of TSMC was already known by the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might already be a step behind the pace. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Tesla will showcase the long-delayed Roadster at an event in Texas on October 15, planning to demonstrate levitation using SpaceX rocket technology, employing compressed gas thrusters to lift the car body, with no one inside. Elon Musk is reportedly warning employees that this performance "is difficult to accomplish and may go wrong." According to BeInCrypto, the market focus is whether this unveiling will boost the stock price or repeat the sell-off seen after previous product launches.
Tesla's stock closed at $375.23 on Tuesday, about 25% below its 52-week high. Historically, after the 2019 Cybertruck launch, the stock dropped 6%; after the October 2024 Cybercab launch, it fell 8.3%; and following another Cybercab event on September 4, it declined another 5.92%. Analysts say that if clear pricing, mass production, and delivery schedules are provided, TSLA could gain support; otherwise, the first trading day on October 16 may face disappointment. $TSLA #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix reports Q3 after the close on Oct 20. Guidance calls for ~$12.86B in revenue, up ~12% YoY, so the bar is already set. The real swing factors are ad-tier adoption, inventory fill rate, and CPM trends. If ads scale while margins hold, the growth narrative stays intact. Watching operating margin and Q4 guidance closely$FIL perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1.1481, currently at 1.0667, floating profit +354.49%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with volume shrinking to the extreme, volatility compressed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 1.1481, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1.20. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to first reduce half the position to take profits, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 1.08 to let profits run. If 1.00 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $BTC $ETH #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Still bearish On Thursday 10.15, are you prepared for a market trend that kills both longs and shorts? Was the consolidation around 818 last night just to cut again this morning?
How would you choose in this market? Does this spike look intimidating? But the 80k level still held, that's the harshest father to the bears. Simply put, if inflation isn't suppressed and liquidity tightening expectations return, that's the biggest short-term bearish factor. On the other hand, on-chain ETF funds haven't seen large-scale outflows, which supports the market a bit, preventing a crash or sharp drop. For BTC to break through the 843 resistance level, it needs to pull back to activate buying below, then test resistance on the way up with volume to break through.
Technically, in the 4-hour downtrend wave, a short-term rebound can't surpass 828, and there may be a pullback to test the 80k level. MACD shows a death cross; bears shortening the move doesn't mean bulls control the market, but it does activate buying below. The hourly chart shows a wick recovery, now rebuilding positions between 810-818; without volume to hold above 820, it’s not considered a strength reversal.
In summary, bulls still dominate intraday; buy on pullbacks in the 803-808 range, chase longs on volume holding above 820 on the right side, targeting 828, 843, 852 $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Two points to consider:
1. If 60k is the bottom, then why not be optimistic about BTC's future upside? You can refer to the previous cycle's ETH performance. ETH bottomed out in June 2022, only dropping for half a year. As a large-cap coin smaller in scale than BTC, its decline was surprisingly not greater than Bitcoin's. There was no major crash, the shakeout was incomplete, the position was heavy, so there was no big rally. ETH's underperformance in the last cycle is obvious. Strictly speaking, Bitcoin also only dropped for half a year this round.
2. Why is there no big rally without a big crash? Think carefully about the best market conditions in the crypto space over the past decade. One was after September 4, 2017, and the other after March 12, 2020. Both were mass extinction events. The law of nature is that nothing is built without breaking the old. If the old doesn't go, the new can't come. The old financial groups keep controlling resources, so new groups can't enter, chips can't accumulate, and the market can't restart.
Only another big exodus can possibly replay a desperate counterattack. If the chips held by institutions can't be washed out, then we have to accept a half-dead crypto market.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
TSMC Q3 revenue hits 1.49 trillion! But this afternoon's earnings report, I'm actually more concerned about the gross margin 👀
TSMC will release the full Q3 earnings report at 2 PM today, and market expectations are really high this time.
Let's first look at the confirmed numbers:
📊 Q3 revenue about 1.49 trillion NTD, up about 50% year-over-year
📊 Q2 gross margin 67.7%
📊 Q3 original gross margin guidance 65%–67%
Revenue hitting a new high is already a fact; what the market really wants to know now is how much profit these AI orders can actually generate.
I think there are three key points to watch today.
① Can the gross margin exceed expectations?
Demand for advanced processes is strong, but the initial costs of 2nm capacity expansion are not low.
If the gross margin beats the original guidance, it means operational efficiency might be better than expected.
② Will the Q4 outlook be revised upward again?
Earnings reports reflect the past, but stock prices trade on the future.
If AI customer demand remains strong, the market will likely pay more attention to management’s views on the next few quarters.
③ Will capital expenditures continue to increase?
Expanding factories can support future growth, but it also means huge capital needs.
Investors need to judge whether these investments can continue to bring sufficient returns.
$TSM $xTSMHYPE current price is about $80, down approximately 18% from the late September peak near $98, testing the $80 support. The team completed an OTC distribution of 3.75 million tokens (about $330 million) in October to avoid public selling pressure, with some already re-staked. The protocol's cumulative revenue exceeds $1.4 billion, the Assistance Fund has repurchased over 48 million tokens, spending $1.36 billion, with holdings valued at about $3.95 billion; the value return mechanism remains strong. In the short term, it is dragged down by market pullbacks, ETF capital outflows, and long liquidations, but the dominance of perpetual trading and buyback burn still support the fundamentals, with around $80 possibly becoming a key battleground.TSMC's Q3 revenue reached an impressive NT$1.49 trillion, achieving approximately 50% year-on-year growth and setting a new record high, but the current market sentiment remains cautious. The roughly 2% decline in related stocks indicates that investors are in a wait-and-see mode. Some in the community point out that since the Q3 gross margin guidance is between 65% and 67%, lower than the 67.7% in Q2, there is widespread concern about whether profits can grow in sync with revenue. The record-breaking revenue figures are already clear, but the upcoming actual profit performance will be the real test that determines the market's next move.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Google Cloud's 82% growth rate is not simply a celebration of good news; it is a major test of returns under heavy investment. The rapid growth is already confirmed, but the core dilemma in the market now is whether the massive spending can be converted into stable cash flow.
The enterprise demand for AI computing power is genuinely exploding, directly driving Google Cloud's revenue surge. The large backlog of orders has already secured the basic foundation for the foreseeable future, and this main growth trajectory remains unshaken.
However, to secure the AI track, Google has raised its full-year capital expenditure for 2026 to $195-205 billion. The cost of aggressively investing in computing infrastructure is short-term pressure on cash flow. The market no longer simply chases revenue growth but begins to price in the payback period of massive capital investments. The biggest question on investors' minds is: with so much money invested, will profits keep pace with expansion?
Currently, bulls are betting on sustained hot AI demand, expecting scale effects to dilute costs later and future profit margins to improve; bears worry about an endless arms race in computing power that continuously erodes profits and prolongs the investment return cycle. The Q3 earnings report on October 28 will focus on three macro indicators: the profit margin level of the cloud business, the rhythm guidance of capital expenditure, and management's long-term judgment on AI commercialization.
The track is definitely upward in the long term, but the short term is full of uncertainty. Do not prematurely bet on the market just because of impressive growth. Revenue is only paper heat; the efficiency of investment returns is the key to pricing. $GOOGL $xGOOGL #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Conclusion first: $WAL defies the trend with a 24-hour +46% gain — while 262 major coins fell, it alone stayed in the green. The 4H volume and price clearly show this is not sector rotation; someone is controlling the market.
Data (OKX public market):
- From 10-14 04:00 to 10-15 04:00, 4H continuous volume increase: 240K → 5.2M → 23.14M → 40.41M → 42.68M → 46.18M;
- Price surged from 0.038 to a high of 0.067, currently at 0.0602;
- During the same period BTC -2.89%, ETH -5.73%, SOL -4.88%.
Structure: Five consecutive large-volume bullish candles, a typical small-cap counter-trend rally — the volume scale compared to the major market dropping this much yet still rallying straight up strongly suggests a single force behind it. Key support is at 0.055; if it holds the sideways consolidation, there is a right-side opportunity; if it breaks, this wave is a short-term hunt.
This does not constitute investment advice. Have you ever seen a coin that stays green alone while the entire market is red? $WAL#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The countdown begins for the allocation of 61,900 $BTC, with a Chinese court accepting the disposal application
Announcement from Tianjin No. 2 Intermediate People's Court: On September 28, the court accepted the judicial disposal application for the crypto assets involved in the Qian Zhimin case, targeting 61,896.41552945 $BTC, valued at about 5 billion USD at current prices, along with a batch of coins including $XRP and $DOGE. The initial report was by The Paper on October 14, followed by multiple English media outlets confirming the story, essentially solid evidence. Coupled with the October 12 ruling by the London High Court that "ownership disputes are subject to Chinese law," the victims' direct retrieval of the coins is basically blocked, and these coins will most likely be disposed of by Chinese judicial authorities.
To put it plainly, this is not a market-driven event today but a sword hanging over $BTC. It is common for sovereign governments to liquidate large seized coin holdings—Germany sold over 50,000 coins in 2024, and the US has done the same. The 61,900 coins represent about 0.3% of circulating supply; if liquidation proceeds, the market will definitely feel it. The short-term market has not priced this in yet, but with each step forward in the legal process, this "potential selling pressure" shifts from rumor to confirmed fact. Next, watch two things: when the disposal ruling will be issued and whether the execution plan includes liquidation clauses. These will be the key factors determining whether these coins will be dumped onto the market.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $xTSEM TSMC will release its full Q3 financial report and hold an earnings call on October 15. According to the preliminary monthly data disclosed, Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a historical high. The company estimates the gross margin for this quarter to be in the range of 65%-67%.
The impressive revenue is mainly driven by strong orders for AI chips. With the revenue data now confirmed, market focus has shifted from revenue figures to whether net profit can also grow significantly, validating the realization of high gross margins; at the same time, there is high attention on Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
The market generally anticipates that the high optimism for AI has already been partially priced into the stock. Ahead of the earnings report, TSM stock price has pulled back, with funds playing the risk of positive news being realized. If the Q4 performance guidance only meets market expectations, it will be difficult to drive the stock price higher; only an increase in capital expenditure and an outlook for Q4 business exceeding expectations will create new positive catalysts. Management's judgment on future AI chip demand during the earnings call will also influence short-term sentiment in the semiconductor sector.Core data: Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 51%, setting a new single-quarter record and significantly exceeding the upper limit of previous guidance; 2nm process has started contributing revenue, 3nm/5nm capacity remains fully utilized, HPC (AI computing chips) is the main growth driver, combined with Apple's 2nm orders, the proportion of advanced process technology continues to rise.
1. AI computing demand is the strongest fundamental driver
Orders for Nvidia's new generation GPUs and cloud providers' self-developed ASICs continue to pour in. HPC business unit prices are much higher than consumer chips, and with CoWoS advanced packaging, product structure optimization brings high gross margins. This is not simply about selling more wafers at higher prices; the share of high-end, high value-added orders is increasing, giving strong pricing power.
2. Smooth ramp-up of 2nm, widening the technology gap
In Q3, the revenue contribution from 2nm significantly increased, with Apple and AMD both adopting it simultaneously. TSMC is the only manufacturer globally capable of stable mass production of 2nm, and the technical barriers are difficult for Samsung and Intel to catch up with in the short term. The monopoly advantage of advanced process technology will remain solid for the next 2-3 years.
3. Dual engines: AI + HPC + Apple iPhone
HPC drives long-term high growth, while Apple's new iPhone contract manufacturing provides stable quarterly increments, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations. The recovery of consumer electronics combined with the high momentum of AI, with two high-value customers pushing simultaneously, is the key to this quarter's better-than-expected performance. At 8:30 last night, the moment I was watching the CPI data release, the market almost instantly plunged. The US September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, expected 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, expected 2.5%; core monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. All three exceeded expectations, none met expectations. The CPI annual rate hit a new high since May, and core CPI exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. Energy prices rose 5.2%, gasoline up 9.1%—the fuel costs from the Iran war have truly been transmitted into inflation. I previously predicted core CPI at 0.2% would meet expectations, but that judgment was wrong. The market was wrong just like me, so the reaction was especially severe. BTC dropped from 84,348 straight down to 80,168, falling 4,180 points in four hours, a decline of 4.96%. The most critical point is that the 81,500 level was broken—this is the estimated comprehensive cost baseline for the US spot BTC ETF and also BTC's 400-day moving average. For the past three weeks, the daily closing price has steadily stayed above this line; the market regarded it as the "institutional cost line," believing institutions would not let the price fall below their cost. But last night it broke, and broke decisively, with no decent rebound. There was $1.716 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 85% from longs. In the last hour alone, $525 million was liquidated, accounting for 31% of the whole day—this indicates the crash was a concentrated outbreak, with leveraged longs wiped out in one sweep. Nasdaq futures fell over 2%, S&P down 1.26%, gold down 2%, silver and gold...CoreWeave dropped from 78 to 63 in just one week, bond yields soared to 15%, is the "refinancing" of AI computing power about to collapse?
Market overview: OKX xCRWV overnight quote at 63.55, a 19% pullback from the 24h high of 78.37; trading volume 2.957 billion USDT, turnover rate 13%, sell orders account for 99%, panic is not over yet.
The event chain is solid: On October 14, the US stock market plunged 16% directly, triggering AI infrastructure financing risks; bonds maturing in 2032 with a 9.625% coupon saw yields rise to 14.8%; FT revealed CoreWeave is bringing insurance companies in as new bondholders, which made the market even more nervous; chip financing has exceeded $35 billion, and analysts warned "if the AI cycle stalls, equity could go to zero."
This is not just a company issue, but a crack in the AI capital expenditure narrative: the business model of GPU computing power leasing is to borrow at high interest to buy chips and then rent them out, the chain is most vulnerable when interest rates and demand both turn sour; concerns about a private credit bubble will transmit along this chain to the entire new cloud sector, even Nvidia's backing can't hold it down.
Watch bond yields as a panic thermometer; US stocks tonight will watch AI sector linkage, no chasing rebounds; OKX support at 63.45, if broken look to 61.85, resistance at 65.75. DYOR, not investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI computing power #US stock tokens#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Delivering record revenue in the off-season, AI computing power orders are driving TSMC's growth, with 2nm and 3nm advanced process capacities continuously running at full throttle.
But impressive revenue does not equal worry-free profits.
Massive overseas factory investments and rising capital expenditures will continue to dilute gross margins. The market's biggest concern now: can high revenue convert into high net profit, and what is the true quality of the AI dividend's profitability?
Revenue is the face, profit is the substance. Tonight's earnings report will reveal whether profits can keep pace with the explosive revenue growth.$SNDK Competitor squeeze, release of CPI data, can it still catch a breather in the short term? When roughly will the bottom-fishing happen next?
Squeeze in the same industry, along with Samsung and SK Hynix Korean stocks continuing to weaken, massive foreign capital withdrawal, panic sentiment transmission plus CPI data exceeding market expectations, rising interest rate hike expectations, technology sector collectively under pressure.
Its storage segment's valuation discounting logic against interest rates has been heavily impacted. Currently, the market is digesting negative news and the short-term negative impact brought by CPI data. If it stabilizes and is driven by delayed cyclical news, then the price will rise.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Once the CPI was released, all the excitement dissipated; underneath, things are actually very fragile. You might think it's just a slight data beat? The real issue is that the market has started to reprice the rate hikes. On the surface, tonight's core CPI is 2.6%, 0.1% higher than expected. But watching the market for those ten minutes, it felt nothing like the reaction you'd expect from a "small beat." After the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC dropped 1.2%, gold fell 1.0%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.8%. Note here, even US stocks couldn't hold up; it’s no longer just gold and crypto taking the hit. This indicates the market is trading not on "rates staying high," but on "possibly another hike." Once this expectation is priced in early, the contraction in risk appetite won't be limited to just one sector. Here's a quick data snapshot: - Core CPI 2.6%, expected 2.5% - 10-year US Treasury yield 5.19% → 5.27% - BTC was around 83,700 before data, dropped 1.2% after - ETH was near 2,500 before data, structurally weak - Nasdaq futures -0.8%, gold -1.0% Momentum signals and risk signals need to be viewed separately. On momentum, BTC is just over 3% away from 80,000, with immediate support at 81,500; if rates don’t ease, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen alone. ETH has always been weaker than BTC, altcoins continue to bleed; this isn’t rotation, it’s retreat. On risk, the real threat isn’t tonight’s drop, but "another【$486 million evaporated in one hour, bulls got carried away again, ETH is worse off than BTC】
Long positions worth $465 million were liquidated in just one hour, accounting for over 95%, showing how crowded the short-term bulls were. More strikingly, $ETH liquidations reached $201 million, far exceeding $BTC's $117 million. Although ETH's market cap is much smaller, leveraged traders showed no mercy.
Liquidation doesn't mean all funds have fled. On October 13, the combined net inflow of spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the US stock market was about $200 million, indicating that selling pressure and spot buying might coexist.
Now we need to distinguish whether the price drop is due to a leveraged sell-off or if spot holdings are also continuously retreating.
Short-term traders shouldn't rush to bottom-fish, nor assume the market is over just because long positions were wiped out. Liquidations can clear out a batch of high-leverage chips but don't automatically create new buying demand. If open interest (OI) declines and prices stabilize, it suggests deleveraging may be nearing its end; if rebounds lack volume and spot outflows continue, then this $486 million might not be the last round.Oh my god, the short position exploded in profit today, but I don't want to take profits yet.
I think it will still drop today, but I also want to open a long position to catch a rebound, just a small long position as a prediction.
This time the CPI is indeed strong because it makes the market worry again: high interest rates will continue, and there might even be more rate hikes. The leverage in the crypto space amplifies this impact.
The transmission process is: inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike concerns intensify → USD and US Treasury yields rise → funds reduce risk positions. Last night the dollar rose, and US stocks were under pressure, so this round of decline has obvious macro resonance. The rise in rate hike expectations does not mean hikes are certain, but funds will withdraw in advance.
The crypto market was already adjusting, and the CPI added another blow.
BTC:
Focus on whether the rebound can recover the position broken in this round of decline. If it rallies but then gets pushed back, the low point may be tested again. Only if it recovers and holds on the pullback will I reduce my bearish stance.
ETH:
Watch 2400 above first, then the previously broken 2500 area. If the rebound can't hold above 2400, be prepared for another dip; don't assume a bottom just because the price is cheap.
SOL: I pay more attention to its strength relative to BTC. If BTC is sideways but SOL continues to hit new lows, it shows weak support. Only if it recovers losses first is it worth reevaluating. Currently, I won't turn bullish based on just one rebound.
My direction remains bearish, but I allow for rebounds in operation. Still continuing to short BTC? ⚠️ The price has already reached the strong support at 80500, the bearish momentum is weakening, and the target for this rebound is 84800!
$BTC hit an intraday low of 80228.2, close to the key support area at 80500, with a clear reduction in selling pressure and insufficient momentum for bears to continue their attack. The 4-hour KDJ indicator's J value is only 1.9, entering a deep oversold zone, indicating a strong need for a corrective rebound.
This sharp drop is mostly a leverage cleanup; after continuous declines, the buying support below is accumulating strength. Once the support holds, the market will start to rebound, aiming for the 84800 target.
In terms of operation, do not blindly continue to short; bears are not advised to add positions. Focus closely on the 80500 support—if it holds, expect a rebound; if it breaks down effectively, adjust your strategy accordingly. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $BTC 1-hour long liquidation reached $118 million Total 1-hour long liquidation reached $464 million Beware of bull traps
All three metrics declined within 5 minutes, indicating that bulls are actively conceding during the downtrend rather than bottom-fishing or adding positions.
Long-short ratio:
Binance/OKX account long-short ratio is 1.79~1.79, large account count ratio is 1.87 — long accounts are nearly 1.8 times the short ones, showing strong alignment of retail and large holders towards the long side.
Large account count ratio 1.8653 > position ratio 1.504, meaning shorts among large holders carry heavier average positions — smart money is using the rebound to set up shorts or hedge.
$ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC released its earnings today, and the stock dropped 2% pre-market.
It's now at 425, down 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, just like BTC.
The 50% revenue growth in Q3 was already known last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.Level 8 Gale｜Asia-Pacific Market Storm Hits! Japanese and Korean Stock Markets Plunge Together, Korean Stocks Plummet Nearly 8% Intraday, Nikkei 225 Drops Over 4%, Crypto Market Begins to Follow with Volatility 📉
The aftershock of the hawkish CPI overnight continues to spread, with risk assets in the Asia-Pacific opening collectively stampeding: Korean stocks plunged nearly 8% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, Nikkei 225 index fell over 4%, and global panic sentiment quickly transmitted.
Today's market changes:
When the CPI was released the previous night, crypto could still hold the lows, with bears venting and the decline narrowing; but after this wave of panic spread in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, the crypto market was also dragged down by sentiment, and the market began to show back-and-forth oscillations, no longer simply resisting the decline.
However, it is worth noting: although volatility has increased, SOL and ETH have not yet effectively broken below previous key lows, and the lower support is still being contested.
The main focus remains on US Treasury yields; as long as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the pressure on global risk assets will not disappear. With significant turmoil in external markets, do not blindly heavily bet on the bottom. It's better to earn less and keep discipline intact. In a market with intensified volatility, prioritize waiting for stabilization confirmation signals, and enter with small positions to avoid heartache.
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
$BTC $ETH $SOL #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
$SKHY dropped 6% intraday and then fell another 3.86% after hours. It has lost 30% over 7 trading days. My view on memory stocks has always been as a mid-term target. As long as AI demand continues to rise, memory stocks won’t have major issues. But memory stocks also have their own cyclical nature.
This cycle is like the "pig cycle": when pork prices rise, more people raise pigs; as supply increases, pork prices fall; the price drop leads to fewer pig farmers, supply decreases, and pork prices rise again, continuing the cycle. Memory is the same. Recently, memory manufacturers have been expanding production, and Chinese manufacturers like Changxin have also joined the competition. It’s foreseeable that global memory capacity will increase. Whether prices can hold steady depends on whether AI demand growth outpaces capacity growth. If after expansion memory is still in shortage, memory stocks can keep performing well. Otherwise, they will inevitably enter a down cycle.
If you still hold positions now, you can wait for the November earnings report. If there’s a rebound, you can reduce your holdings appropriately to give yourself some room.
Also, watch less Douyin. Storage has shifted from "storage is king" last month to "storage is doomed" these days. If you have weak self-control, avoid paying too much attention to emotional expressions.$BTC Market | The First Blow After CPI Release
US September CPI exceeded expectations across the board: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), core month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%), year-on-year 2.6%. The 9.1% monthly surge in gasoline is just the surface; housing rose 0.4%, and used cars, airfares, and medical costs all increased, indicating that price hikes have spread beyond energy — the claim that it's "just an energy disturbance" no longer holds.
Market: Upon data release, BTC dropped 1% in five minutes, falling from 83,350 steadily down past 83,000 and 82,000, hitting a low of 81,926, closing at 81,830 (-1.61%). This morning it maintained a weak oscillation between 81,600–82,000, down about 2% in 24 hours. Gold fell 1.5%, silver plummeted 6%, Nasdaq dropped 2%, the US dollar index surged to an 18-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3% intraday — this is a synchronized valuation cut across all risk assets, not a crypto-specific negative.
Key point: The October rate hike bet surged from 22% to 45%, Daly said "very likely to hike again."
Advice: 81,900–81,600 is the lifeline; a daily close below this points to 80,365; a rebound requires retaking 84,245 to be considered a recovery. Tomorrow night’s PPI is the second shoe to drop, so don’t rush to bottom-fish.
$ETH $ZEC
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Q3 revenue is clear, the real battle is this afternoon
Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, and even exceeding the company's own guidance (actual about $46.7 billion vs. guidance upper limit of $45.8 billion).
But revenue is just the first half. The real suspense lies in the gross margin: Q3 guidance is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%—the 2nm ramp-up is expected to dilute by 3-4 points. Whether net profit can outpace revenue growth depends on this.
There is a conference call at 2 PM today, focusing on three points: gross margin level, Q4 guidance, and capex (whether the $60-64 billion will be raised again).
A bit of a cold shower: the stock price just hit a record high, and the revenue beat is likely already priced in. The decisive factor this afternoon is not revenue, but whether the profit margin can withstand the 2nm ramp-up.
Withstand = truly beat expectations; fail to withstand = all good news priced in.
This is not investment advice, results will be revealed this afternoon. The CPI negative news has already been clearly signaled, so why am I starting to pay attention to BTC's rebound??
Yesterday, inflation data exceeded expectations, and BTC followed with a sell-off. The market is again worried about whether the decline will continue.
But I think there is a problem now that is more important than the CPI numbers.
When everyone knows it's bad news, the crypto market often shows a situation where the news is clearly bad, but the price doesn't continue to break down and even starts to rebound.
This doesn't mean the negative news has disappeared; rather, the market may have already priced in part of it in advance.
So next, I will pay special attention to a few signals!
Short covering driving price up, and spot trading volume following, will increase the credibility of the rebound.
Can the decline be stopped?
If BTC stabilizes but ETH$ continues to weaken, it means the market may still be unwilling to take on too much risk.
If open interest (OI) drops, can the price hold?
If a large amount of leverage has been cleaned out but the price doesn't break down further, that is a signal worth observing.
Conversely, if the price continues to fall and OI quickly increases, be cautious that new leveraged positions are accumulating.
What I care about now is not guessing BTC's rise or fall tomorrow, but whether this negative news has made the market more fragile or has already cleared some overheated leverage.
Sometimes the real opportunity is not when good news is announced, but when bad news comes out and the market refuses to fall!
What do you think? Is BTC preparing to stop falling this time, or will there be another wave after the rebound? #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH $OKB #TSMCOct15Earnings The revenue of 1.49 trillion is just a disclosed figure, look at these three things in the earnings report on Thursday
TSMC's revenue in Q3 reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of +50%, a historic record — but this was already announced last week. The real highlight in the earnings report on October 15 is these three things below.
First, the gross profit margin. The guidance is between 65%-67%, while it was 67.7% in Q2. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the entire market is betting on the upper limit Conclusion first: Whether it can hold depends on $2,400, but today it fell harder than BTC, making it one of the weakest major coins. ETH dropped from $2,508 yesterday to a low of $2,401, closing at $2,423, a single-day decline of -3.41%, with a trading volume of $297 million. CPI was higher than expected, and high Beta assets fell more sharply; ETH is a typical example—it fell 3.4%, while BTC only fell 2.1%. Look at the structure. Spot price is $2,423, perpetual contracts are aligned, no de-peg. Open interest is about $1.53 billion; funding rate is +0.0087%, slightly positive. Note this detail—price fell but the funding rate is still positive, indicating bulls have not given up yet. If it continues to fall, this part of the leverage has room to be cleared, so watch out for subsequent deleveraging. Look at the position. Currently at $2,423, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($2,491), 14-day moving average ($2,566), 30-day moving average ($2,608), and 60-day moving average ($2,512)—all four moving averages broken. The 14-day low is $2,401 (yesterday's low), and the 30-day low is $2,358. In other words, it is standing on the previous low of $2,401, which is the short-term lifeline. Market cap is $295.7 billion, ranked 2nd. ETH's DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA fundamentals remain, providing mid-term support. But the short-term structure has clearly weakened. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below After the CPI release, gold dropped 1.6%, silver fell 3.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.72%. Bitcoin only fell 1.5%, roughly the same as gold.
Gold's market cap is 28.7 trillion, silver's is 3.2 trillion, and Bitcoin's is only 1.7 trillion. Its market cap is just one-seventeenth of gold's and half of silver's, yet it didn't fall as sharply as they did.
Small-cap assets resist declines at a level comparable to gold. This resilience is indeed something.$BTC is watching one key level today: $81,500
$BTC is currently at $81,345, $ETH at $2,370. The aftershocks of yesterday's CPI 3.7% exceeding expectations haven't faded yet, and the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 49%, so the macro headwinds remain. But $BTC is sitting right on the average cost line of US spot ETF holders at $81,500, a level that has already supported two rebounds.
The funding side tells the same story: last week, ETF net outflows were $679 million, the largest since the end of June; but on Tuesday, there were reports that IBIT and FBTC returned about $176 million (source unnamed, to be verified). Some ran when prices fell, others stepped in when they came back.
If $81,500 holds, there is still room to fight today, with the rebound first targeting around $84,000; if the hourly close falls below $81,500, the next target is $77,500. Until the headwinds clear, don't chase the rebound high. Take profit at 2335 was pierced in a second, this short on ETH really hurt
Brothers, that spike just now, all the shorts must have been hit hard, right?
$BTC directly dropped to just above 80000, ETH was even more brutal, plunging straight down to 2310.
Here's my trade: I opened an ETH short at 2511, set take profit at 2335, and that one spike just pierced it, locking in 176 points without hesitation.
Honestly, I was sure it would drop this round, but I didn't expect it to fall so fast and decisively.
The logic is simple: last night core CPI was 0.3%, overall 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, turning the rate cut scenario into a rate hike on the spot. CME shows at least two hikes before the end of January 2027 with a 73.7% probability, October hike probability jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and the chance of no change is only 1.2%. Before the data, people were shouting "bad news is priced in, full position bottom fishing," but overnight all that became fuel, and BTC at 84000 was the bulls' last trap to lure longs.
You can check my post from yesterday, I kept saying, don't chase longs before the data, the rebound is just giving shorts some room, once the macro trend reverses, the stampede is faster than anyone.
Brothers who got hit by this move, report in the comments, let me see how many got hurt.
If you missed it, don't worry, there will be rebounds during the rate hike cycle, opportunities are not just this once. But remember, don't catch the first spike like a flying knife.
The above is just market observation, not trading advice.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue has been finalized, greatly exceeding expectations, with the main focus now shifting to gross margin.
Revenue hit a new high driven by AI+HPC+2nm volume ramp, but the 2nm ramp-up and depreciation from the new overseas fab are suppressing gross margin.
If the gross margin stays above 66%, profits are expected to strengthen accordingly; if it approaches the 65% lower limit, it indicates that new process cost pressures are higher than expected.
Q4 guidance, 2nm yield, and capital expenditures will have a greater impact on subsequent valuations than Q3's single-quarter net profit.How do whales operate? Starting from this precise ETH long position to closing after CPI
A whale opened a long position of 20,000 ETH at about $1936 on August 19, holding for over 56 days, with a peak unrealized profit of about $17 million, finally closing the position after a pullback triggered by a hotter-than-expected CPI, locking in about $8.93 million in profit.
This typical whale operation is actually a true trading bible:
· Position early at low levels instead of chasing highs;
· Hold mid-term positions, able to withstand large drawdowns in unrealized profits;
· Use clear macro events (CPI) as exit signals, rather than stubbornly holding to target prices;
· Prioritize locking in certain profits, not chasing the perfect selling point.
Yesterday's CPI was indeed a bit of a surprise,
Year-over-year 3.7% higher than expected, pushing up US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations,
BTC fell from near 84,000 to around 81,500, ETH dropped to the 2410–2430 range, increasing long liquidations.
My judgment:
$BTC support at 81,000–80,500, if broken may test 80,000;
Resistance at 82,500–83,000, strong resistance at 84,000.
$ETH support at 2380–2400, if broken may test 2350;
Resistance at 2480–2500, strong resistance at 2550.
Short-term macro still dominates, whales choose to take profits rather than continue to bet on a rebound, reflecting risk control priority.
Watch subsequent inflation data and Fed statements. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Good morning, the crypto market today is not a "rollercoaster of sharp rises and falls," but more like institutions rearranging the table, gamblers exchanging chips, and regulators tightening access controls. 1. Market overview: BTC is not lying flat, ETH is a bit tired BTC is grinding in the 77,000–78,000 range, the fear and greed index has dropped back to "neutral to slightly cold," and the options market is not very excited in the short term. ETH is weak in following the rise and even fell for a while compared to the previous period; the market no longer trusts the old script of "ETH soon surging to previous highs," focusing more on whether staking income and L2 fees can support the valuation. The total market cap is about 2.6 trillion USD, with trading volume declining compared to the previous period, indicating this is not a bull frenzy but a process of selective washing and picking targets. 2. Regulation: Licenses abroad, source blocking domestically China continues to suppress virtual currencies and RWA tokenization as illegal financial risks: currency exchange, matching, pricing, token financing, and domestic RWA intermediaries all cross red lines; issuing RMB stablecoins recklessly is also off the table. Overseas, regulation is more about "incorporation": Thailand allows BTC and ETH spot ETFs to trade on exchanges starting 10/16; the UK is revising payment rules to accommodate tokenized deposits; Singapore's OCBC issues tokenized gold on ETH/Solana; Russia has passed the first reading of a crypto legalization framework. In short: the West is pushing crypto into "securities/funds/payment pipelines," while the East treats crypto as "money laundering and espionage funding risks" to be blocked. 3. Major industry events: Money flows to places "explainable to regulators" Tokenized gold/funds/government bonds are becoming attractive: Legal & General